Player Spotlight: Kerry Collins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2005 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Ultimately, each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kerry Collins, QB, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: http://footballguys.com/CollKe00-2.htm

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoints from two Footballguys Staff Members

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[David Yudkin]

All I can say is for this thread after the other offseason and PS threads that are already out there . . .

 

[BigTex]

IMHO Collins falls into that High Risk/High Reward category.Passing Yards 3650Passing TDs 26Ints 15Rush Yards 120Rush TDs 0

 

[mbuehner]

Collins is going to be overvalued by someone in almost every draft. He only thrown for over 20 tds twice in his career, and has thrown more ints than TDs overall. His career completion percentage is 55.9%, not good. While he has a great chance to put up career numbers, he will need to in order to meet his draft position. Even if he has just a 'very good' year by his standards, it will ruin a lot of fantasy teams. Randy Moss brings the potential for greatness, but also the potential for meltdown, which needless to say would bury Collins owners that have him targetted as a top 5 QB. I'll let somebody else have Collins this year, because i know he wont be there for what I would pay for him. Trent Green, Hasselbeck, and Bulger will still be on the board of a lot of drafts when Collins goes.Kerry Collins: 290/512 3615 23tds 22ints, 40 rushing yds, 0 rushing tds

 

[djcolts]

I had McNabb as my QB in my 14-team keeper league, and I traded Collins for Driver straight up (same cost - both at $3 next year for $100 cap). I'm happy that I got value for Collins - since Driver will likely be my #1 WR (I'll have Muhammed as my #2 or #3 receiver, depending on the draft).

 

[JohnnyU]

Andrew Walter

 

[Shooter McGavin]

I'm a believer. One of the best WR corps in the league, an improving O-line, and a running game that should be improved with Jordan around. Passing: 309/520, 3913 YD, 29 TD, 23 INTRushing: 20/40, 1 TD

 

[Snotbubbles]

Collins is going to be overvalued by someone in almost every draft. He only thrown for over 20 tds twice in his career, and has thrown more ints than TDs overall.

Collins stats last year in 14 games:3495 yds, 21 TDs, 20 INTsHis team added the best WR in the game today and a decent RB option. I can't see why he wouldn't at least match those numbers in a full 16 games.I got Collins at3900 yds27 TDs23 INTsRushing yds negligible. I'd put him in the group of Trent Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Kerry Collins: The offense has loads of potential. There's no reason he doesn't improve off of last year's stats, just don't get caught up in the hype.

3700 passing for 27 Td's and 19 Int's

15 rushes for 77 yards and zero Tds

 

[Tick]

307/520 for 3850 yards, 24 TDs, 16 INTs. 15/40/0 rushing.

 

[Mordraken]

Collins completion percentage has been a bit better over the past 5 years - up to about 58%. The worse stat is his TD : INT ratio which was a poor 94:79 (1.19 TD to every Int). The Oakland defense was bad last year ranked #31 of 32 teams, forcing the team to throw. They allowed an average of 27 points per game, and allowed less than two TDs only twice in the year (week 2 and week 17) while allowing more than 30 or more points nine times. I don't really think they will improve all that much this year.Bottom line there is that Collins will be forced to throw a lot. He will also turn the ball over a lot. Moss is a great receiver, but even he can't catch passes that are overthrown/underthrown by 10 yards or intercepted. He can help, but can't do everything.My prediction (rounded off): 3,900 yards, 54%, 26 TDs, 24 Ints, negligible rushing stats (40 yards, 0 TDs). It will be the best year of his career, but still short of a stud QB.

 

[David Yudkin]

Where are all of you that said Collins was a lock for 30+ TD this year in all the other Collins threads? You know who you are . . .

 

[CapGuru]

A big question about what Collins will do is tied up in what Lamont Jordan does. Certainly, prorating Collins games played last year over a full season gets him 4,000 yards but I think the improvements in the running game will keep the performance to about 3,800. With 7.0 ypa, he will toss the rock 542 times and average slightly better than 55% completion ratio.300/542/3,800/25 TD/20 INT15 rushes/40 yds as he tries to save his life.270 FP...note quite in the top 10. His best overall finish was #8 QB in 2000, but has been more of a 10-15 ranked QB. Don't believe the hype and expect more of the same due to high interceptions and good balance from the OAK offense.

 

[Muahahaha]

Where are all of you that said Collins was a lock for 30+ TD this year in all the other Collins threads? You know who you are . . .

I am also waiting for some projections from those that have Moss getting 14-16 TDs....I would think that those figures would translate into 28-32 TDs for Collins, as 50% of a team's TDs to any given player seems to be the high end.

 

[Family Matters]

Kerry Collins: The offense has loads of potential. There's no reason he doesn't improve off of last year's stats, just don't get call up in the hype.

3700 passing for 27 Td's and 19 Int's

15 rushes for 77 yards and zero Tds

Sounds about right. I do think he can cover around 4000 yards however.

 

[Family Matters]

Where are all of you that said Collins was a lock for 30+ TD this year in all the other Collins threads? You know who you are . . .

Maybe all 3 of them came to teir senses?

 

[Cixelsyd]

4500yds, 29TDs, 16Ints21 rushes, 65 yds, 1TDCollins isn't flashy, but he does have a good arm and a great receiving core. At his best, he had Amani Toomer... Look what Owens did for McNabb... McNabb was all potential, no show the last few years... not great passing stats... and then he breaks 30 TD's... He had almost as many TD's last year as he did the previous 2 years combined.Collins will succeed in this system, because the pressure is off of him... good RB, great WR's and improved line... just throw the ball Kerry.

 

[jurb26]

Wow, I can't believe how low these projections are. You guys do realize that Collins would have had 4000/24 in a full 16 last year WITH OUT Moss. In comes the best WR int he game, an much imporved RB, and a better Oline. Collins will be a stud this year so long as he stays on the field. Oaks D won't even be better than USC's.335 comp, 550 att, 4385 yds, 34 TDs, 20 INTs, 12 carries, 25 yds

 

[Mordraken]

335 comp, 550 att, 4385 yds, 34 TDs, 20 INTs, 12 carries, 25 yds

Some stats:2004:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 5

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 3

2003:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 2

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 1

2002:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 4

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 0

What you are predicting is that Collins will be one of the best QBs in football next year, despite having eclipsed 4000 yards once in 10 years, and never having thrown over 22 TDs.

Just checking... It is not impossible (see Jake Plummer who went from a standard 3000 yard passer who averaged about 20 TDs a year into a 4000+ yard passer last year with 27 TDs) but it's going to require everything to go just right.

 

[Callas Disregard]

All I can say is for this thread after the other offseason and PS threads that are already out there . . .

3900/26/22 passing, and 50/0 rushing

 

[jurb26]

335 comp, 550 att, 4385 yds, 34 TDs, 20 INTs, 12 carries, 25 yds

Some stats:2004:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 5

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 3

2003:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 2

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 1

2002:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 4

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 0

What you are predicting is that Collins will be one of the best QBs in football next year, despite having eclipsed 4000 yards once in 10 years, and never having thrown over 22 TDs.

Just checking... It is not impossible (see Jake Plummer who went from a standard 3000 yard passer who averaged about 20 TDs a year into a 4000+ yard passer last year with 27 TDs) but it's going to require everything to go just right.

If "every thing to go just right" = Moss stays healthy then I agree, but thats all it should take IMO. Moss staying on the field.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

since Driver will likely be my #1 WR

Ugh

 

[MelvinTScupper]

335 comp, 550 att, 4385 yds, 34 TDs, 20 INTs, 12 carries, 25 yds

Some stats:2004:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 5

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 3

2003:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 2

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 1

2002:

# QBs with over 4000 yards - 4

# QBs with over 30 TDs - 0

What you are predicting is that Collins will be one of the best QBs in football next year, despite having eclipsed 4000 yards once in 10 years, and never having thrown over 22 TDs.

Just checking... It is not impossible (see Jake Plummer who went from a standard 3000 yard passer who averaged about 20 TDs a year into a 4000+ yard passer last year with 27 TDs) but it's going to require everything to go just right.

If "every thing to go just right" = Moss stays healthy then I agree, but thats all it should take IMO. Moss staying on the field.

Your love of Moss is duly noted.3800-26TDs-20INTs - rushing negligable

 

[Futility]

3900 yds28 TD20 INTRushing/Fumbles Lost are offsettingCollins will be good, but he doesn't have the tools to be an elite QB, no matter who you put around him. All of the elite fantasy QBs have some combination of these qualities: great accuracy, very few interceptions, or great running ability. Kerry Collins has none of them. Even with Moss, Collins won't put up elite numbers. He will finish anywhere between 4th and 10th overall QB.

 

[MrNiceGuy]

3900 yds

28 TD

20 INT

Rushing/Fumbles Lost are offsetting

Collins will be good, but he doesn't have the tools to be an elite QB, no matter who you put around him. All of the elite fantasy QBs have some combination of these qualities: great accuracy, very few interceptions, or great running ability. Kerry Collins has none of them.  Even with Moss, Collins won't put up elite numbers. He will finish anywhere between 4th and 10th overall QB.

I don't agree. I think the Moss factor will be huge.Look at all the Minnesota Backup QB starts over the 4 past years:

Gus Frerotte:

09/28/03 San Francisco 16/21 76.2% 267yds 4-TD's 0-INT

10/05/03 @Atlanta 14/24 58.3% 239yds 2-TD's 1-INT

Todd Bouman:

12/09/01 Tennessee 21/31 67.7% 348yds 4-TD's 1-INT

12/16/01 @Detroit 18/38 47.4% 243yds 2-TD's 2-INT

If you expand these numbers to 16 games:

4388 yds, 48 TDs, 16 INT

Those are Peyton Manning numbers gentlemen, and we're talking about Gus Frerotte and Todd Bouman...not Kerry Collins.

Furthermore, Frerotte's games came without Cris Carter, Collins will have Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry as well. Add that the Oakland defense (on paper) is as bad as those terrible Viking defenses of the past, you can look for some high scoring games, and Collins airing it in the 4th.

Obviously those numbers are too ridiculous, so to have a reality-check:

Kerry Collins 4200 yds/35 TD's/15 INT

Edited to add more TD's to the total

 

[David Yudkin]

3900 yds

28 TD

20 INT

Rushing/Fumbles Lost are offsetting

Collins will be good, but he doesn't have the tools to be an elite QB, no matter who you put around him. All of the elite fantasy QBs have some combination of these qualities: great accuracy, very few interceptions, or great running ability. Kerry Collins has none of them.  Even with Moss, Collins won't put up elite numbers. He will finish anywhere between 4th and 10th overall QB.

I don't agree. I think the Moss factor will be huge.Look at all the Minnesota Backup QB starts over the 4 past years:

Gus Frerotte:

09/28/03 San Francisco 16/21 76.2% 267yds 4-TD's 0-INT

10/05/03 @Atlanta 14/24 58.3% 239yds 2-TD's 1-INT

Todd Bouman:

12/09/01 Tennessee 21/31 67.7% 348yds 4-TD's 1-INT

12/16/01 @Detroit 18/38 47.4% 243yds 2-TD's 2-INT

If you expand these numbers to 16 games:

4388 yds, 48 TDs, 16 INT

Those are Peyton Manning numbers gentlemen, and we're talking about Gus Frerotte and Todd Bouman...not Kerry Collins.

Furthermore, Frerotte's games came without Cris Carter, Collins will have Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry as well. Add that the Oakland defense (on paper) is as bad as those terrible Viking defenses of the past, you can look for some high scoring games, and Collins airing it in the 4th.

Obviously those numbers are too ridiculous, so to have a reality-check:

Kerry Collins 4200 yds/35 TD's/15 INT

Edited to add more TD's to the total

Selective perception is a wonderful thing. You forgot Spergon Wynn to the list of Minnesota starters. Wynn had three starts:24-39-218 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

11-30-114 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT

13-29-86 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

Whether you want to factor that in or not makes little difference, IMO, as whatever Moss did in Minnesota and their system and personnel--regardless of the QB--will have no impact on Collins in Oakland.

 

[Burning Sensation]

4000 yards30 TD's24 INT's60 rush yards

 

[Futility]

3900 yds

28 TD

20 INT

Rushing/Fumbles Lost are offsetting

Collins will be good, but he doesn't have the tools to be an elite QB, no matter who you put around him. All of the elite fantasy QBs have some combination of these qualities: great accuracy, very few interceptions, or great running ability. Kerry Collins has none of them.  Even with Moss, Collins won't put up elite numbers. He will finish anywhere between 4th and 10th overall QB.

I don't agree. I think the Moss factor will be huge.Look at all the Minnesota Backup QB starts over the 4 past years:

Gus Frerotte:

09/28/03 San Francisco 16/21 76.2% 267yds 4-TD's 0-INT

10/05/03 @Atlanta 14/24 58.3% 239yds 2-TD's 1-INT

Todd Bouman:

12/09/01 Tennessee 21/31 67.7% 348yds 4-TD's 1-INT

12/16/01 @Detroit 18/38 47.4% 243yds 2-TD's 2-INT

If you expand these numbers to 16 games:

4388 yds, 48 TDs, 16 INT

Those are Peyton Manning numbers gentlemen, and we're talking about Gus Frerotte and Todd Bouman...not Kerry Collins.

Furthermore, Frerotte's games came without Cris Carter, Collins will have Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry as well. Add that the Oakland defense (on paper) is as bad as those terrible Viking defenses of the past, you can look for some high scoring games, and Collins airing it in the 4th.

Obviously those numbers are too ridiculous, so to have a reality-check:

Kerry Collins 4200 yds/35 TD's/15 INT

Edited to add more TD's to the total

Your reality-check needs a reality-check.

 

[MrNiceGuy]

Selective perception is a wonderful thing. You forgot Spergon Wynn to the list of Minnesota starters. Wynn had three starts:

24-39-218 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

11-30-114 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT

13-29-86 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

Whether you want to factor that in or not makes little difference, IMO, as whatever Moss did in Minnesota and their system and personnel--regardless of the QB--will have no impact on Collins in Oakland.

You're right, I completely forgot about him.However, I figure you have to have some decent NFL skills to fully utilize Moss' talents. If I go behind center in Minn in 2002, I probably wouldn't make a completion...However, I don't believe you can't disregard Moss as a factor to any decent NFL QB's numbers.

Okay, point taken, two different systems. We'll use Norv Turner's offensive as a basis, instead of comparing to Green's Vikes.

Norv Turner hasn't had this talented on offense since the 1999 Washington Redskins. Yes, I realize this is his best offensive year, but again, he didn't have as much to work with in Miami or San Diego.

1999 Washington: Brad Johnson 316/519 4005 yards, 24 TD, 13 INT.

Pretty good numbers. That'd just about be the #5-#8 according to the FBG's current projections.

The '99 Skins had Albert Connell, Michael Westbrook and Irving Fryar (in his 2nd to last year)

The '05 Raiders have Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry. I could say that such an upgraded group of receivers could add about 200 yards and 5 TD's to the same offense.

This wouldn't match my projections, but obviously I am being optimistic. The 5 extra TD's being that the 99 skins had Stephen Davis pound it in 17 times and I dare say Lamont Jordan + Zack Crockett won't have 17 rushing touchdowns combined, or maybe they will.

Yes, I know you can't compare statistics from 1999 to 2005, because the game has changed (the game is even more geared towards passing now, i.e. 5-yard chuck) but my point is Norv Turner is capable of have a pretty decent arial assault, and his QB can put up pretty good numbers.

And yes, I am assuming that Kerry Collins is as talented as Brad Johnson circa 1999.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

3900 yds

28 TD

20 INT

Rushing/Fumbles Lost are offsetting

Collins will be good, but he doesn't have the tools to be an elite QB, no matter who you put around him. All of the elite fantasy QBs have some combination of these qualities: great accuracy, very few interceptions, or great running ability. Kerry Collins has none of them.  Even with Moss, Collins won't put up elite numbers. He will finish anywhere between 4th and 10th overall QB.

I don't agree. I think the Moss factor will be huge.Look at all the Minnesota Backup QB starts over the 4 past years:

Gus Frerotte:

09/28/03 San Francisco 16/21 76.2% 267yds 4-TD's 0-INT

10/05/03 @Atlanta 14/24 58.3% 239yds 2-TD's 1-INT

Todd Bouman:

12/09/01 Tennessee 21/31 67.7% 348yds 4-TD's 1-INT

12/16/01 @Detroit 18/38 47.4% 243yds 2-TD's 2-INT

If you expand these numbers to 16 games:

4388 yds, 48 TDs, 16 INT

Those are Peyton Manning numbers gentlemen, and we're talking about Gus Frerotte and Todd Bouman...not Kerry Collins.

Furthermore, Frerotte's games came without Cris Carter, Collins will have Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry as well. Add that the Oakland defense (on paper) is as bad as those terrible Viking defenses of the past, you can look for some high scoring games, and Collins airing it in the 4th.

Obviously those numbers are too ridiculous, so to have a reality-check:

Kerry Collins 4200 yds/35 TD's/15 INT

Edited to add more TD's to the total

Your reality-check needs a reality-check.

Much funnier is his thinking that 3900 yards and 28 TDs would be a disappointment to anyone who knows Collins, including Collins.

 

[Futility]

And which part of my post did you infer that from? If you found a "disappointed" theme to my post, it's in response to projections involving much higher numbers.This is getting fairly off-topic though. I'd be glad to discuss this via PM.

 

[Unlucky]

K. Collins: 312 for 541, 4006 yds, 57.7%, 7.4 YPA, 33 TDs, 19 INTs, 20/20 rushing

Why? Try projecting the Oakland receiving total and coming up with worse numbers than that. With barely any receiving for the RBs and TEs, you'll be hard pressed to come up with totals like 3600 yds and 24 TDs like some people are suggesting. Of course I'm assuming 16 games played for Collins - it's impossible to predict otherwise.

For my complete Oakland projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/oak.html

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Wow, I can't believe how low these projections are. You guys do realize that Collins would have had 4000/24 in a full 16 last year WITH OUT Moss.

I expect them to actually have a bit of a running game this year. Last year, they threw the ball 582 times (not including pass plays that ended in sacks), and were last in the league in both rushing attempts and yards (328 & 1295). I think having Jordan, who I believe can be a legitimate starter, and Moss to draw attention away from the running game, will lead to more balance on Offense.

 

[jurb26]

Wow, I can't believe how low these projections are.  You guys do realize that Collins would have had 4000/24 in a full 16 last year WITH OUT Moss. 

I expect them to actually have a bit of a running game this year. Last year, they threw the ball 582 times (not including pass plays that ended in sacks), and were last in the league in both rushing attempts and yards (328 & 1295). I think having Jordan, who I believe can be a legitimate starter, and Moss to draw attention away from the running game, will lead to more balance on Offense.

I agree, the running game should be much improved as will the whole O. I can't see this team winning games that way though. Their D will be terrible and eventually, they will be foced to pass at times when they may not want to.

 

[David Yudkin]

Selective perception is a wonderful thing.  You forgot Spergon Wynn to the list of Minnesota starters.  Wynn had three starts:

24-39-218 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

11-30-114 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT

13-29-86 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

Whether you want to factor that in or not makes little difference, IMO, as whatever Moss did in Minnesota and their system and personnel--regardless of the QB--will have no impact on Collins in Oakland.

You're right, I completely forgot about him.However, I figure you have to have some decent NFL skills to fully utilize Moss' talents. If I go behind center in Minn in 2002, I probably wouldn't make a completion...However, I don't believe you can't disregard Moss as a factor to any decent NFL QB's numbers.

Okay, point taken, two different systems. We'll use Norv Turner's offensive as a basis, instead of comparing to Green's Vikes.

Norv Turner hasn't had this talented on offense since the 1999 Washington Redskins. Yes, I realize this is his best offensive year, but again, he didn't have as much to work with in Miami or San Diego.

1999 Washington: Brad Johnson 316/519 4005 yards, 24 TD, 13 INT.

Pretty good numbers. That'd just about be the #5-#8 according to the FBG's current projections.

The '99 Skins had Albert Connell, Michael Westbrook and Irving Fryar (in his 2nd to last year)

The '05 Raiders have Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry. I could say that such an upgraded group of receivers could add about 200 yards and 5 TD's to the same offense.

This wouldn't match my projections, but obviously I am being optimistic. The 5 extra TD's being that the 99 skins had Stephen Davis pound it in 17 times and I dare say Lamont Jordan + Zack Crockett won't have 17 rushing touchdowns combined, or maybe they will.

Yes, I know you can't compare statistics from 1999 to 2005, because the game has changed (the game is even more geared towards passing now, i.e. 5-yard chuck) but my point is Norv Turner is capable of have a pretty decent arial assault, and his QB can put up pretty good numbers.

And yes, I am assuming that Kerry Collins is as talented as Brad Johnson circa 1999.

Here's something I posted in one of the other Collins threads . . .

I did some research on Turner's tenure as an NFL coach (20 years with Oakland, Miami, SD, Washington, Dallas, and the Rams).

Here's what I came up with which may or may not have any relevancy in 2005.

AVERAGE POINTS SCORED RANKING: 11.7

Had 5 teams rank in the Top 3 in scoring (7 times Top 10 overall) but only one Top 3 in the past 11 seasons. Had only one season ranked worse than 18 (24th in 2000 with the Skins).

AVERAGE PASSING YARDS RANKING: 14.2

Had 3 Rams teams early on rank in the Top 5 (7 times Top 10 overall) but no Top 5 ranking since 1990.

AVERAGE PASSING TD RANKING: 15.6

Had 5 Top 5 seasons while coaching 3 different teams. Had 9 years ranked lower than 20.

AVERAGE FANTASY QB RANKING: 15.9

Produced 5 Top 5 QBs (3 in LA, 1 in Dallas, 1 in Washington) and 7 Top 10 QBs. May be somewhat related to . . .

AVERAGE GAMES PLAYED BY QB1: 13.7

Only had his QB play all 16 games 8 of 20 years. Not sure what that might indicate.

If you look at Turner's tendencies, he has usually been a pound the ball into the end zone coach. If that is the case, I don't see Collins getting as many TDs as some people are projecting. However, I will admit that the Raiders ground game was putrid last year, but with Jordan inserted at RB, that may change some.

 

[Muahahaha]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

 

[jurb26]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.

Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

I would expect that Collins puts up 600/4 in only 2 of those games. That does not mean the will win though.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

Those number (600-4) projected over an entire season would be 3200 passing yards and 21 TDs, not too bad for a 5th or 6th round pick. And thats against two pretty stingy defenses in NE and PHI.EDIT: Collins threw for 560 yds and 5 TDs in his 2 games vs. KC last year. An average of 280 yds and 2.5 TDs.

 

[mbuehner]

Why? Try projecting the Oakland receiving total and coming up with worse numbers than that

R Moss: 1225y 11td- worst year of his career. Remember the statistics of recievers changing teams, chances are Moss has a down year (for him anyway)J Porter:905y 6td- Pretty much like last year, but loses tds to MossGabriel/Curry/Whitted: 670y 2td- if these guys are getting looks Moss is going to be in Collins' faceTeyo: 465y 3tdJordan: 185y Amos/Crockett/Redmond/other: 285y Thats my conservative estimate, and I admit it is predicated on this team coming apart at the seems after they lose to New England, KC, Philly, Dallas, and San Diego in the first five weeks. They get some cake defenses later in the year, but my guess is they will be phoning it in by then. I just dont see this team turning it around the way people are thinking. If Moss, Porter, and Collins dont get along its going to be an even longer season.

 

[Muahahaha]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.

Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

Those number (600-4) projected over an entire season would be 3200 passing yards and 21 TDs, not too bad for a 5th or 6th round pick. And thats against two pretty stingy defenses in NE and PHI.EDIT: Collins threw for 560 yds and 5 TDs in his 2 games vs. KC last year. An average of 280 yds and 2.5 TDs.

Agreed. 5th or 6th round ain't bad for Collins and represents good value. But any projection that puts him at 30+ TDs implies he should be the 4th QB taken and probably won't be there by then....Antsports has the 4th QB going mid-4th round.Also, don't you think KC's defense should be better this year?

 

[jurb26]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.

Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

Those number (600-4) projected over an entire season would be 3200 passing yards and 21 TDs, not too bad for a 5th or 6th round pick. And thats against two pretty stingy defenses in NE and PHI.EDIT: Collins threw for 560 yds and 5 TDs in his 2 games vs. KC last year. An average of 280 yds and 2.5 TDs.

Agreed. 5th or 6th round ain't bad for Collins and represents good value. But any projection that puts him at 30+ TDs implies he should be the 4th QB taken and probably won't be there by then....Also, don't you think KC's defense should be better this year?

I disagree. Just because you think a player may have a great year does not mean you think he should be drafted that high. Its a matter of balancing the risk and reward. Collins carries more risk than a lot of guys are willing to draft. Simply look at this thread. I am as high as anyone on Collins, but I will not reach for him in the 4th when I know he will be there in the 6th. OF course everyone looks at things differently. Some like high potential guys and will gamble big on Collins (I think 2 in my main league will). Its your job to sort that out in your drafts though.Plus, Oak made bigger and better changes to its O than KC did to its D IMO.

 

[Muahahaha]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.

Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

Those number (600-4) projected over an entire season would be 3200 passing yards and 21 TDs, not too bad for a 5th or 6th round pick. And thats against two pretty stingy defenses in NE and PHI.EDIT: Collins threw for 560 yds and 5 TDs in his 2 games vs. KC last year. An average of 280 yds and 2.5 TDs.

Agreed. 5th or 6th round ain't bad for Collins and represents good value. But any projection that puts him at 30+ TDs implies he should be the 4th QB taken and probably won't be there by then....Also, don't you think KC's defense should be better this year?

I disagree. Just because you think a player may have a great year does not mean you think he should be drafted that high. Its a matter of balancing the risk and reward. Collins carries more risk than a lot of guys are willing to draft. Simply look at this thread. I am as high as anyone on Collins, but I will not reach for him in the 4th when I know he will be there in the 6th. OF course everyone looks at things differently. Some like high potential guys and will gamble big on Collins (I think 2 in my main league will). Its your job to sort that out in your drafts though.Plus, Oak made bigger and better changes to its O than KC did to its D IMO.

OK. So your projection is different than your ranking? Where do you rank him? Which QBs do you put ahead of him?Shouldn't you just use one "risk-weighted" projection that takes this into account?

 

[Snotbubbles]

R Moss: 1225y 11td- worst year of his career. Remember the statistics of recievers changing teams, chances are Moss has a down year (for him anyway)

What statistics are those? Here goes a couple of players who have changed teams and been successful the next year:Terrell OwensSF 2003: 80-1102-8 (in 15 games)PHI 2004: 77-1200-14 (in 14 games)Jerry RiceSF 2000: 75-805-7OAK 2001: 80-1139-9Laveranues ColesNYJ 2002: 89-1264-5WAS 2003: 82-1204-6Irving FryarMIA 1995: 62-910-8PHI 1996: 88-1195-11You can't go by statistics derived from normal recievers who change teams. Moss could very well be the best that ever played the game. He can't be grouped into the normal WR pool. It doesn't matter who he plays with, or what system he's in, he'll be successful. Most of the time when a reciever switches teams they are usually declining in skills. When players switch teams in their prime, they usually continue to succeed.

 

[jurb26]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.

Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

Those number (600-4) projected over an entire season would be 3200 passing yards and 21 TDs, not too bad for a 5th or 6th round pick. And thats against two pretty stingy defenses in NE and PHI.EDIT: Collins threw for 560 yds and 5 TDs in his 2 games vs. KC last year. An average of 280 yds and 2.5 TDs.

Agreed. 5th or 6th round ain't bad for Collins and represents good value. But any projection that puts him at 30+ TDs implies he should be the 4th QB taken and probably won't be there by then....Also, don't you think KC's defense should be better this year?

I disagree. Just because you think a player may have a great year does not mean you think he should be drafted that high. Its a matter of balancing the risk and reward. Collins carries more risk than a lot of guys are willing to draft. Simply look at this thread. I am as high as anyone on Collins, but I will not reach for him in the 4th when I know he will be there in the 6th. OF course everyone looks at things differently. Some like high potential guys and will gamble big on Collins (I think 2 in my main league will). Its your job to sort that out in your drafts though.Plus, Oak made bigger and better changes to its O than KC did to its D IMO.

OK. So your projection is different than your ranking? Where do you rank him? Which QBs do you put ahead of him?

It isn't for me. I rank him 3. I just know that many other FFers do this so I will make note of it when I draft.

 

[Muahahaha]

I fully expect Collins to hit the trading block for cheap after week 3. At this point, the Raiders will be 0-3, after losses @NE, home against KC, and then @PHI. Collins will be lucky to put up over 600 yards and 4 TDs total over that span & his owners will be panicking. Many of them will be 0-3 as well.

Moss, on the road in an outdoor environment against the last two Conference Champions will be some, but not enough, help.

Those number (600-4) projected over an entire season would be 3200 passing yards and 21 TDs, not too bad for a 5th or 6th round pick. And thats against two pretty stingy defenses in NE and PHI.EDIT: Collins threw for 560 yds and 5 TDs in his 2 games vs. KC last year. An average of 280 yds and 2.5 TDs.

Agreed. 5th or 6th round ain't bad for Collins and represents good value. But any projection that puts him at 30+ TDs implies he should be the 4th QB taken and probably won't be there by then....Also, don't you think KC's defense should be better this year?

I disagree. Just because you think a player may have a great year does not mean you think he should be drafted that high. Its a matter of balancing the risk and reward. Collins carries more risk than a lot of guys are willing to draft. Simply look at this thread. I am as high as anyone on Collins, but I will not reach for him in the 4th when I know he will be there in the 6th. OF course everyone looks at things differently. Some like high potential guys and will gamble big on Collins (I think 2 in my main league will). Its your job to sort that out in your drafts though.Plus, Oak made bigger and better changes to its O than KC did to its D IMO.

OK. So your projection is different than your ranking? Where do you rank him? Which QBs do you put ahead of him?

It isn't for me. I rank him 3. I just know that many other FFers do this so I will make note of it when I draft.

OK. So we both agree that we wouldnt' touch him until the 6th round....Just kidding.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Agreed. 5th or 6th round ain't bad for Collins and represents good value. But any projection that puts him at 30+ TDs implies he should be the 4th QB taken and probably won't be there by then....Antsports has the 4th QB going mid-4th round.Also, don't you think KC's defense should be better this year?

Collins falls into the group of Favre, Green, Bulger and Hasselbeck. With Manning, Culpepper and McNabb probably going in rounds 1-3. In a 12 team league, I doubt all 8 of those QBs will go before the 5th. So whoever out of those 8 remains will be value. If none remain, I have no problem drafting guys like Brady, Brooks, Brees, Plummer and Delhomme in the 7th or 8th.

 

[jurb26]

OK. So we both agree that we wouldnt' touch him until the 6th round....

Well we were talking about 2 different things. I agree that a savy owner will try to wait for Collins in the 5th/6th round. I just don't agree with you in that projecting some high numbers for a player means you are dead set to draft him higher than you think would be wise.

 

[Muahahaha]

Agreed. 5th or 6th round ain't bad for Collins and represents good value. But any projection that puts him at 30+ TDs implies he should be the 4th QB taken and probably won't be there by then....Antsports has the 4th QB going mid-4th round.

Also, don't you think KC's defense should be better this year?

Collins falls into the group of Favre, Green, Bulger and Hasselbeck. With Manning, Culpepper and McNabb probably going in rounds 1-3. In a 12 team league, I doubt all 8 of those QBs will go before the 5th. So whoever out of those 8 remains will be value. If none remain, I have no problem drafting guys like Brady, Brooks, Brees, Plummer and Delhomme in the 7th or 8th.

Agreed. But the entire purpose of this thread is to develop a consensus projection for Collins to be used in a VBD / Draft Dominator app by Footballguys. Any projection above 30 TDs would put Collins 4th QB in their projections, and would have DD recommending you take Collins in most likely the 4th round. That is the baseline. You don't HAVE to take him there. It implies he represents excellent value in the 5th or 6th round.

I have no problem with their forecast as it stands currently which puts him in the Favre, Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck tier and recommends you take him in the 5th or 6th round for no real value. This is a different baseline.

Its one or the other. Either: a) you expect him to put up 30+ TDs, which implies he is the 4th best QB and represents EXCELLENT value in the 5th or 6th round or b) you expect him to put up 26-28TDs and be taken in the Favre, Green, Bulger, Hasselbeck tier during the 5th or 6th rounds for little or no value.

 

[mbuehner]

When players switch teams in their prime, they usually continue to succeed.

Peerless Price, David Boston, Keyshawn Johnson- I can cherry pick players too. The bottom line is it has been rare for a premier WR to switch teams in their prime and its been years since someone of TO or Randy Moss caliber has done so, if ever. To draw conclusions from that is silly. Lets just look at the fundamentals, a player changing teams has to adjust to a new system and a new QB, that has to have some sort of impact. Maybe the guy gets such an upgrade of a QB and team that he prospers like TO did, but I dont think that is the case with Moss. His QB has gotten worse, his RB is an open question, and he's gone from a borderline playoff caliber team to a gutter dweller. My money is not on Moss to buck the trend this season (which doesnt mean he wont play well, just not typical Moss well which is what Collins would need to put up top 5 numbers).

 

[jurb26]

When players switch teams in their prime, they usually continue to succeed.

Peerless Price, David Boston, Keyshawn Johnson- I can cherry pick players too. The bottom line is it has been rare for a premier WR to switch teams in their prime and its been years since someone of TO or Randy Moss caliber has done so, if ever. To draw conclusions from that is silly. Lets just look at the fundamentals, a player changing teams has to adjust to a new system and a new QB, that has to have some sort of impact. Maybe the guy gets such an upgrade of a QB and team that he prospers like TO did, but I dont think that is the case with Moss. His QB has gotten worse, his RB is an open question, and he's gone from a borderline playoff caliber team to a gutter dweller. My money is not on Moss to buck the trend this season (which doesnt mean he wont play well, just not typical Moss well which is what Collins would need to put up top 5 numbers).

You are trying to make this far too difficult. The last time Moss changed teams and had to do all of the stuff you just mentioned was in 98, his rookie year. Seems that turned out just fine. As a matter of fact, Moss is most likely a better player now than he was then. Great players adapt to their suroundings and the teams do to them. Moss is a great player, maybe the best in the NFL right now. This talk of him not being able to adapt is outlandish IMO. Look at the guys career, its right in front of you. Moss will be Moss unless hurt. Thats just the way it is with great players.