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Player Spotlight: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Larry Fitzgerald Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
I got in a huge argument about this guy on twitter today. I think with a bit of declining athleticism, Carson Palmer's advanced age, Arizona's line play, the expectation of Rashard Mendenhall to carry the rushing load... I don't see it as positive as others do.

72 catches, 987 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Playing through the worst situation I have ever seen for a WR last year, he finished top 20 or so? Enter Arians and seeing what he did last year with Wayne in the same role, I would not argue anyone saying he finishes top 14.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Playing through the worst situation I have ever seen for a WR last year, he finished top 20 or so? Enter Arians and seeing what he did last year with Wayne in the same role, I would not argue anyone saying he finishes top 14.
He was in the WR40 range last year.

WR42 to be exact.

 
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Shutout

Footballguy
Playing through the worst situation I have ever seen for a WR last year, he finished top 20 or so? Enter Arians and seeing what he did last year with Wayne in the same role, I would not argue anyone saying he finishes top 14.
He was in the WR40 range last year.

WR42 to be exact.
33 in my ppr but point taken. Should have looked it up instead of asking as a question. But, given the talent and changes, the general sentiment is the same. Obviously if its not ppr, that is much dicier.

 

shimp06

Footballguy
First off Larry will only be 30 years old at the start of the season. The offensive line on paper looks much improved. Starting left tackle Levi Brown missed the entire 2012 season, and the team added what some people thought was the best guard in the draft in Jonathan Cooper. Carson Palmer will be the best quarterback Fitzgerald has played with since Kurt Warner. It has been reported that coach Arians has already been using Fitzgerald more in the slot in ota's, which if it carries over to the season should help him get more clean looks. If the team is able to produce a strong running game it should only help his stats. I think he returns to top 10 in ppr leagues.

Projection- 95 catches, 1300yds, 9td

 

TheWick

Footballguy
I got in a huge argument about this guy on twitter today. I think with a bit of declining athleticism, Carson Palmer's advanced age, Arizona's line play, the expectation of Rashard Mendenhall to carry the rushing load... I don't see it as positive as others do. 72 catches, 987 yards and 3 touchdowns.
This is crazy talk. Do you think his athleticism has declined past Reggie Wayne? He will have 150 or so targets from a much better QB on a team that will be playing from behind. Also Mendy couldn't carry a load of laundry.90-1276-10
 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Palmer is a turnover machine now, but he can still throw the ball well enough to get a stud like Fitz back on the WR1 track.

88/1,229/10

 

CentralPA

Footballguy
I got in a huge argument about this guy on twitter today. I think with a bit of declining athleticism, Carson Palmer's advanced age, Arizona's line play, the expectation of Rashard Mendenhall to carry the rushing load... I don't see it as positive as others do.

72 catches, 987 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Respectfully disagree. Better O-Line, much better QB throwing to him, he's going to be back to being the Larry of old.

1200/86/11

 

KrazyKyle

Footballguy
To see how Fitz can recover from his worse season as a pro, 71/798/4, I think we need to look at similar situations. Remember that Fitz had arguably the worst starting quarterback along with hands down the worst O-line in football.

The obvious comparison is Reggie Wayne. In his 2011, his lowest production in 8 seasons his line was 75/960/4. With Arians and A. Luck, Wayne posted 2012 a line of 106/1355/5. Granted C. Palmer is no Andrew Luck, but he is an obvious updrade over the likes of, Kolb, Skelton, and Lindley. Reggie Wayne saw an increase of 30 more catches and 400 yards.

Another similar player because of situation is Terrell Owens. At age 36 in 2009 he posted a line of 55/829/5 playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. His following year in Cincy his line was 72/983/9. Though it wasn't extreme, note that it is a jump up in performance and he was 37 years old!

At age 30 Fitzgerald is still playing at an elite level. With upgrades at every position on offense, I will expect Fitz to rebound with a Pro-Bowl type year. To forecast 109/1350/8 I will be happy to take him as long as his value is right.

 

Christo

Footballguy
KrazyKyle said:
To see how Fitz can recover from his worse season as a pro, 71/798/4, I think we need to look at similar situations. Remember that Fitz had arguably the worst starting quarterback along with hands down the worst O-line in football.The obvious comparison is Reggie Wayne. In his 2011, his lowest production in 8 seasons his line was 75/960/4. With Arians and A. Luck, Wayne posted 2012 a line of 106/1355/5. Granted C. Palmer is no Andrew Luck, but he is an obvious updrade over the likes of, Kolb, Skelton, and Lindley. Reggie Wayne saw an increase of 30 more catches and 400 yards.Another similar player because of situation is Terrell Owens. At age 36 in 2009 he posted a line of 55/829/5 playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. His following year in Cincy his line was 72/983/9. Though it wasn't extreme, note that it is a jump up in performance and he was 37 years old!At age 30 Fitzgerald is still playing at an elite level. With upgrades at every position on offense, I will expect Fitz to rebound with a Pro-Bowl type year. To forecast 109/1350/8 I will be happy to take him as long as his value is right.
Maybe not physically. But between the ears, I'd guess he's far beyond where Luck was last year.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I have some concerns about Carson Palmer getting enough protection to stay healthy all season. But if they can get that accomplished I think he will have a good season. 540-610pa 330-390com 3800-4400yds 20-27Td

The chosen one is clearly the top target of the Cardinals offense that could be significantly improved since the last time they had a good QB Kurt Warner. Not saying Palmer is as good as Warner who is a pretty unique player. Palmer has proven to be a very good NFL QB however in less than ideal situations before.

Fitzgerald career

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV2004 21 ARI WR 11 16 16 58 780 13.4 8 48 3.6 48.8 8 14 0 10 1.8 0.9 0.5 794 8 1 62005* 22 ARI WR 11 16 16 103 1409 13.7 10 47 6.4 88.1 8 41 0 15 5.1 2.6 0.5 1450 10 0 102006 23 ARI WR 11 13 13 69 946 13.7 6 57 5.3 72.8 946 6 0 82007* 24 ARI WR 11 15 15 100 1409 14.1 10 48 6.7 93.9 1409 10 3 122008*+ 25 ARI WR 11 16 16 96 1431 14.9 12 78 6.0 89.4 1431 12 1 142009* 26 ARI WR 11 16 16 97 1092 11.3 13 34 6.1 68.3 1092 13 0 92010* 27 ARI WR 11 16 15 90 1137 12.6 6 41 5.6 71.1 1137 6 0 72011* 28 ARI WR 11 16 16 80 1411 17.6 8 73 5.0 88.2 1411 8 0 102012 29 ARI WR 11 16 16 71 798 11.2 4 37 4.4 49.9 798 4 0 5http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FitzLa00.htm

2005-2009 were with Warner available at least part of the time. The last 2 seasons have been more challenging. Last season being the worst of his career. I think Palmer is healthy long enough to at least help Fitz rebound in 2013.

Fitzgerald has averaged 160 targets over the last 3 seasons. Reggie Wayne had 195 as the WR1 with Luck and Arians last season. I project 150-200 targets 87-116 receptions 1183-1578yds 8-13TD

Fitz will be 30 years old in August. WR see more gradual decline and that may not be until 2015. Fitzgerald could possibly be playing at a high level into 2017 when he will be 34 if healthy. At some point the price tag on Fitzgerald will not match his production and then he may have a couple journeyman years. If he wants to I could still see him playing another 4-6 years.

Great player who's demise may be premature. If Palmer gets injured I think Stanton is better than the QB they had last season but maybe not much. So that and a long term answer at the QB position remain questions.

 
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Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

  • 31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball
  • Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.
  • The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.
  • The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
 

Skeletore Eh

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

[*]31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball

[*]Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.

[*]The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.

[*]The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
I think you can just throw out the numbers put up by Oakland wr's last year in relation to fitz. It's like trying to predict AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene
 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

[*]31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball

[*]Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.

[*]The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.

[*]The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
I think you can just throw out the numbers put up by Oakland wr's last year in relation to fitz. It's like trying to predict AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene
That's not the function of that exercise. It's to see how Carson Palmer, in his advanced age with his current physical condition and resulting mental makeup, is able to create fantasy production. He simply wasn't able to do it for wide receivers last year and I see little reason to believe he will be able to this year.

 

Christo

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

[*]31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball

[*]Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.

[*]The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.

[*]The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
I think you can just throw out the numbers put up by Oakland wr's last year in relation to fitz. It's like trying to predict AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene
That's not the function of that exercise. It's to see how Carson Palmer, in his advanced age with his current physical condition and resulting mental makeup, is able to create fantasy production. He simply wasn't able to do it for wide receivers last year and I see little reason to believe he will be able to this year.
Other than the fact that the WR we're talking about is one of the best in the game and the QBs who were throwing to him last year have never been as productive as Palmer at any times in their careers.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

[*]31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball

[*]Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.

[*]The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.

[*]The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
I think you can just throw out the numbers put up by Oakland wr's last year in relation to fitz. It's like trying to predict AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene
That's not the function of that exercise. It's to see how Carson Palmer, in his advanced age with his current physical condition and resulting mental makeup, is able to create fantasy production. He simply wasn't able to do it for wide receivers last year and I see little reason to believe he will be able to this year.
Other than the fact that the WR we're talking about is one of the best in the game and the QBs who were throwing to him last year have never been as productive as Palmer at any times in their careers.
Is a 33 year old Carson Palmer, behind that offensive line, who you want to depend on for your WR1's value? I certainly don't want to bet on that situation.

 

Christo

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

[*]31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball

[*]Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.

[*]The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.

[*]The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
I think you can just throw out the numbers put up by Oakland wr's last year in relation to fitz. It's like trying to predict AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene
That's not the function of that exercise. It's to see how Carson Palmer, in his advanced age with his current physical condition and resulting mental makeup, is able to create fantasy production. He simply wasn't able to do it for wide receivers last year and I see little reason to believe he will be able to this year.
Other than the fact that the WR we're talking about is one of the best in the game and the QBs who were throwing to him last year have never been as productive as Palmer at any times in their careers.
Is a 33 year old Carson Palmer, behind that offensive line, who you want to depend on for your WR1's value? I certainly don't want to bet on that situation.
In one of my dynasties, I'm going to do exactly that.

 

Skeletore Eh

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

[*]31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball

[*]Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.

[*]The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.

[*]The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
I think you can just throw out the numbers put up by Oakland wr's last year in relation to fitz. It's like trying to predict AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene
That's not the function of that exercise. It's to see how Carson Palmer, in his advanced age with his current physical condition and resulting mental makeup, is able to create fantasy production. He simply wasn't able to do it for wide receivers last year and I see little reason to believe he will be able to this year.
Yes. He wasn't able to do it last year for denarius Moore, juron criner, rod streater and whoever else the raiders were rolling out at wr. Once again, taking those numbers and applying them to Larry Fitzgerald is like predicting AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene.
 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball

Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.
The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.
The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
I think you can just throw out the numbers put up by Oakland wr's last year in relation to fitz. It's like trying to predict AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene
That's not the function of that exercise. It's to see how Carson Palmer, in his advanced age with his current physical condition and resulting mental makeup, is able to create fantasy production. He simply wasn't able to do it for wide receivers last year and I see little reason to believe he will be able to this year.
Yes. He wasn't able to do it last year for denarius Moore, juron criner, rod streater and whoever else the raiders were rolling out at wr. Once again, taking those numbers and applying them to Larry Fitzgerald is like predicting AP's numbers by looking at shonn Greene.
There are other parameters that are discussed in the article and that isn't the only point I made.
 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

  • 31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball
  • Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.
  • The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.
  • The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
Palmer lost his fastball because of passes in the 4th quarter?
confused1.gif


Palmer averaged 7.1 YPA which is right there with his career average of 7.2 YPA Palmer threw for 4k yards something he has done (close enough) 4 other times in his career. His statistics returned to earlier career levels minus a few TD. The interception percentage of 2.5% was equal to his previous best.

The Cardinals would have prefered move Levi Brown inside to guard where they think he will be better suited. This draft saw too many tackles taken early however and the Cardinals had to settle for the best guard instead. It is not a complete solution but everything is not negative regarding that situation. Bad? Yes. Bad as last season? No. So that alone is a positive.

What some WR on Oakland paced for in 2012 does not equal what one should expect Fitzgerald to do with Palmer on a completely different team.

The relevance of the last bit of twisted logic escapes me. Are you suggesting that Fitzgerald isn't enough of a deep ball WR to do what Reggie Wayne did in this offense last season? And therefore will not be targeted much in Arians offense because he prefers to throw go routes all game?

oldunsure.gif


 

cstu

Footballguy
Here are some things I found while writing this article http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/05/let-someone-else-draft-larry-fitzgerald/

  • 31% of Carson Palmer's attempts came in the 4th quarter last year and only 44% of his completions were to wide receivers, indicating that he has begun to lose his fastball
  • Levi Brown, in his last full season, graded out as the 2nd worst pass blocker in all of football. All known quantities on the Arizona offensive line are negatives and the one unknown is a rookie.
  • The leading recevier in Oakland last year, on a per game basis, would have been WR28 for the entire season.
  • The wide receivers who have done the best in Arian's passing offenses have been those with a aDOT >13 yards and Fitzgerald has only ever finished in the top 10 with a aDOT >13 yards one time in his career.
Even if Arians puts Fitzgerald on the move and in the slot, the way that he did Reggie Wayne in 2012, the fantasy ceiling in these match ups are dramatically lowered. Fitzgerald also will face the Buccaneers revamped pass defense with Darrelle Revis as well Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson and the Texans pass rush. Out of 16 possible matchups, 8 immediately grade out as negative for Fitzgerald.
It's not an easy schedule but it was even more difficult last year. He had a far less talented team around him and still caught 71 passes.

90/1100/10 is very reasonable given the changes in AZ.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Is a 33 year old Carson Palmer, behind that offensive line, who you want to depend on for your WR1's value? I certainly don't want to bet on that situation.
If Brandon Marshall can put up 1,500+ yards with the Bears ####ty offensive line and Jay Cutler, then I am pretty sure that Larry Fitzgerald can put up great numbers with Carson Palmer. Really, 5 of Arizona's 15 games (not counting week 17) being against the defenses from the NFC West should be the bigger concern.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Is a 33 year old Carson Palmer, behind that offensive line, who you want to depend on for your WR1's value? I certainly don't want to bet on that situation.
If Brandon Marshall can put up 1,500+ yards with the Bears ####ty offensive line and Jay Cutler, then I am pretty sure that Larry Fitzgerald can put up great numbers with Carson Palmer. Really, 5 of Arizona's 15 games (not counting week 17) being against the defenses from the NFC West should be the bigger concern.
I mentioned that in the piece as well. They also face Revis and the Bucs, fwiw. I fully acknowledge that I could be wrong; Fitz is a truly talented player and probably the hardest working WR of our generation. But if he produces a historic season, he won't do it on my team.
 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Okay, but is anyone predicting he will have a historic season (however you want to judge that)? Predicting he will return to form and put up WR1 stats doesn't mean we automatically think he will have a historic season.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Okay, but is anyone predicting he will have a historic season (however you want to judge that)? Predicting he will return to form and put up WR1 stats doesn't mean we automatically think he will have a historic season.
Poor choice of adjectives. If Larry FItzgerald is a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver, like he has been many times before, he will not do it on any of my fantasy football teams.Edit: I fully acknowledge that this prediction could go down in flames, but I'm just not going to own him.

 
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Nucker101

Footballguy
Okay, but is anyone predicting he will have a historic season (however you want to judge that)? Predicting he will return to form and put up WR1 stats doesn't mean we automatically think he will have a historic season.
Poor choice of adjectives. If Larry FItzgerald is a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver, like he has been many times before, he will not do it on any of my fantasy football teams.

Edit: I fully acknowledge that this prediction could go down in flames, but I'm just not going to own him.
Just curious, how many passing yards to you project for the Cardinals this year? Not trying to rip you for your opinion, but I'm honestly just curious.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Okay, but is anyone predicting he will have a historic season (however you want to judge that)? Predicting he will return to form and put up WR1 stats doesn't mean we automatically think he will have a historic season.
Poor choice of adjectives. If Larry FItzgerald is a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver, like he has been many times before, he will not do it on any of my fantasy football teams.

Edit: I fully acknowledge that this prediction could go down in flames, but I'm just not going to own him.
Just curious, how many passing yards to you project for the Cardinals this year? Not trying to rip you for your opinion, but I'm honestly just curious.
My model has them at 4,232. Fitz with close to 23% Market Share of yards with 957 yards.

 

Skeletore Eh

Footballguy
Okay, but is anyone predicting he will have a historic season (however you want to judge that)? Predicting he will return to form and put up WR1 stats doesn't mean we automatically think he will have a historic season.
Poor choice of adjectives. If Larry FItzgerald is a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver, like he has been many times before, he will not do it on any of my fantasy football teams. Edit: I fully acknowledge that this prediction could go down in flames, but I'm just not going to own him.
Just curious, how many passing yards to you project for the Cardinals this year? Not trying to rip you for your opinion, but I'm honestly just curious.
My model has them at 4,232. Fitz with close to 23% Market Share of yards with 957 yards.
Ill never understand the delay
 

We Tigers

Footballguy
Okay, but is anyone predicting he will have a historic season (however you want to judge that)? Predicting he will return to form and put up WR1 stats doesn't mean we automatically think he will have a historic season.
Poor choice of adjectives. If Larry FItzgerald is a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver, like he has been many times before, he will not do it on any of my fantasy football teams.

Edit: I fully acknowledge that this prediction could go down in flames, but I'm just not going to own him.
Just curious, how many passing yards to you project for the Cardinals this year? Not trying to rip you for your opinion, but I'm honestly just curious.
My model has them at 4,232. Fitz with close to 23% Market Share of yards with 957 yards.
23% of passing yardage would be the lowest of Fitzgerald's career, behind even last season. Hard to draw many trends given the completely new coaching staff, but across 9 seasons and 11 QBs, he's never been used that infrequently.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I'm still not sold. Fitz has ranked as the #22 fantasy receiver on a ppg basis (0 ppr) since Warner retired. Ignoring last year, he was the #14 WR based on ppg in 2010-2011. Fitz had similar issues even in the Warner era. I kept track at the time. He was fantasy WR2 playing with Warner . . . and WR20 when playing with any of the other QBs of that timeframe (McCown, King, Navarre, Leinart, Rattay).

Yes, Palmer is an upgrade over the guys not named Kurt Warner, but I don't think at this stage Palmer is anything more than an average QB. I don't see Fitz as a Top 2-3 option. IMO, his upside is Bottom Tier WR1 / Top Tier WR2.

I would expect numbers similar to his 2010 campaign, no matter how talented he may be. 90-1100-6.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Among other things, you cite as a negative in this article that Palmer didn't target WRs with a high percentage of his pass attempts. But the situations are apples and oranges. Oakland's McFadden and Reece are much better receiving options than Arizona's RBs. Housler may have potential, but there is no reason to believe he will be as good of a receiving option as Myers. Meanwhile, Oakland had a group of average WRs in DHB, Moore, and Streater. I think it's obvious that Fitz, Floyd, and Roberts are a much stronger WR group. So the percentage of attempts to WRs in Oakland really do not seem predictive for Arizona.

You also show a lot of similarity scores that project out to performances in the WR27-ish range. But looking at those situations, how many are really comparable to Fitz's situation? How many of those players had been multi-time top 5 WRs? How many were Fitz's age or less? How many were switching to a situation with a new QB who by all accounts is expected to be a significant improvement? How many were also switching to a new coaching staff? I really don't see those comps as being relevant.

You mention PFF in the article. PFF says only 76 of Fitz's 148 targets last season were catchable. That is only 51.4%. Meanwhile, PFF says DHB, Moore, and Streater received 153 of 258 catchable targets. That is 59.3%. This suggests Fitz's catchable percentage will go up significantly, especially since he is more talented than all of those guys. That alone suggests Fitz is in line for another 20 catches or so.

I'm not saying Fitz should be ranked, much less drafted, as a top 5 WR. But I think he stands an excellent chance of finishing as a top 10 WR this season.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Among other things, you cite as a negative in this article that Palmer didn't target WRs with a high percentage of his pass attempts. But the situations are apples and oranges. Oakland's McFadden and Reece are much better receiving options than Arizona's RBs. Housler may have potential, but there is no reason to believe he will be as good of a receiving option as Myers. Meanwhile, Oakland had a group of average WRs in DHB, Moore, and Streater. I think it's obvious that Fitz, Floyd, and Roberts are a much stronger WR group. So the percentage of attempts to WRs in Oakland really do not seem predictive for Arizona.

You also show a lot of similarity scores that project out to performances in the WR27-ish range. But looking at those situations, how many are really comparable to Fitz's situation? How many of those players had been multi-time top 5 WRs? How many were Fitz's age or less? How many were switching to a situation with a new QB who by all accounts is expected to be a significant improvement? How many were also switching to a new coaching staff? I really don't see those comps as being relevant.

You mention PFF in the article. PFF says only 76 of Fitz's 148 targets last season were catchable. That is only 51.4%. Meanwhile, PFF says DHB, Moore, and Streater received 153 of 258 catchable targets. That is 59.3%. This suggests Fitz's catchable percentage will go up significantly, especially since he is more talented than all of those guys. That alone suggests Fitz is in line for another 20 catches or so.

I'm not saying Fitz should be ranked, much less drafted, as a top 5 WR. But I think he stands an excellent chance of finishing as a top 10 WR this season.
Housler has shown much more in his first two years than Myers did in his first three and was higher draft pick (3rd vs. 6th). I'm still not sure how he'll be used but I think he's a vastly superior talent to Myers.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Okay, but is anyone predicting he will have a historic season (however you want to judge that)? Predicting he will return to form and put up WR1 stats doesn't mean we automatically think he will have a historic season.
Poor choice of adjectives. If Larry FItzgerald is a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver, like he has been many times before, he will not do it on any of my fantasy football teams.

Edit: I fully acknowledge that this prediction could go down in flames, but I'm just not going to own him.
Just curious, how many passing yards to you project for the Cardinals this year? Not trying to rip you for your opinion, but I'm honestly just curious.
My model has them at 4,232. Fitz with close to 23% Market Share of yards with 957 yards.
23% of passing yardage would be the lowest of Fitzgerald's career, behind even last season. Hard to draw many trends given the completely new coaching staff, but across 9 seasons and 11 QBs, he's never been used that infrequently.
I agree with this - if Palmer throws for 4200 then I expect Fitz to get 1200 of that (~30%).

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Among other things, you cite as a negative in this article that Palmer didn't target WRs with a high percentage of his pass attempts. But the situations are apples and oranges. Oakland's McFadden and Reece are much better receiving options than Arizona's RBs. Housler may have potential, but there is no reason to believe he will be as good of a receiving option as Myers. Meanwhile, Oakland had a group of average WRs in DHB, Moore, and Streater. I think it's obvious that Fitz, Floyd, and Roberts are a much stronger WR group. So the percentage of attempts to WRs in Oakland really do not seem predictive for Arizona.

You also show a lot of similarity scores that project out to performances in the WR27-ish range. But looking at those situations, how many are really comparable to Fitz's situation? How many of those players had been multi-time top 5 WRs? How many were Fitz's age or less? How many were switching to a situation with a new QB who by all accounts is expected to be a significant improvement? How many were also switching to a new coaching staff? I really don't see those comps as being relevant.

You mention PFF in the article. PFF says only 76 of Fitz's 148 targets last season were catchable. That is only 51.4%. Meanwhile, PFF says DHB, Moore, and Streater received 153 of 258 catchable targets. That is 59.3%. This suggests Fitz's catchable percentage will go up significantly, especially since he is more talented than all of those guys. That alone suggests Fitz is in line for another 20 catches or so.

I'm not saying Fitz should be ranked, much less drafted, as a top 5 WR. But I think he stands an excellent chance of finishing as a top 10 WR this season.
Housler has shown much more in his first two years than Myers did in his first three and was higher draft pick (3rd vs. 6th). I'm still not sure how he'll be used but I think he's a vastly superior talent to Myers.
Let me rephrase. Do you think Housler will be targeted as much as Myers was last season? That was the main point of that paragraph, that what happened in Oakland last season is not predictive of what will happen in Arizona this season.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Among other things, you cite as a negative in this article that Palmer didn't target WRs with a high percentage of his pass attempts. But the situations are apples and oranges. Oakland's McFadden and Reece are much better receiving options than Arizona's RBs. Housler may have potential, but there is no reason to believe he will be as good of a receiving option as Myers. Meanwhile, Oakland had a group of average WRs in DHB, Moore, and Streater. I think it's obvious that Fitz, Floyd, and Roberts are a much stronger WR group. So the percentage of attempts to WRs in Oakland really do not seem predictive for Arizona.

You also show a lot of similarity scores that project out to performances in the WR27-ish range. But looking at those situations, how many are really comparable to Fitz's situation? How many of those players had been multi-time top 5 WRs? How many were Fitz's age or less? How many were switching to a situation with a new QB who by all accounts is expected to be a significant improvement? How many were also switching to a new coaching staff? I really don't see those comps as being relevant.

You mention PFF in the article. PFF says only 76 of Fitz's 148 targets last season were catchable. That is only 51.4%. Meanwhile, PFF says DHB, Moore, and Streater received 153 of 258 catchable targets. That is 59.3%. This suggests Fitz's catchable percentage will go up significantly, especially since he is more talented than all of those guys. That alone suggests Fitz is in line for another 20 catches or so.

I'm not saying Fitz should be ranked, much less drafted, as a top 5 WR. But I think he stands an excellent chance of finishing as a top 10 WR this season.
Housler has shown much more in his first two years than Myers did in his first three and was higher draft pick (3rd vs. 6th). I'm still not sure how he'll be used but I think he's a vastly superior talent to Myers.
Let me rephrase. Do you think Housler will be targeted as much as Myers was last season? That was the main point of that paragraph, that what happened in Oakland last season is not predictive of what will happen in Arizona this season.
The obvious answer is 'no', but I think Housler's potential this year is being sold short. Allen and Fleener last year combined for 71 receptions in similar offense but Housler is being given only a modest 10% boost from his numbers last year. I think he's the most overlooked TE right now.

 
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Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Among other things, you cite as a negative in this article that Palmer didn't target WRs with a high percentage of his pass attempts. But the situations are apples and oranges. Oakland's McFadden and Reece are much better receiving options than Arizona's RBs. Housler may have potential, but there is no reason to believe he will be as good of a receiving option as Myers. Meanwhile, Oakland had a group of average WRs in DHB, Moore, and Streater. I think it's obvious that Fitz, Floyd, and Roberts are a much stronger WR group. So the percentage of attempts to WRs in Oakland really do not seem predictive for Arizona.

You also show a lot of similarity scores that project out to performances in the WR27-ish range. But looking at those situations, how many are really comparable to Fitz's situation? How many of those players had been multi-time top 5 WRs? How many were Fitz's age or less? How many were switching to a situation with a new QB who by all accounts is expected to be a significant improvement? How many were also switching to a new coaching staff? I really don't see those comps as being relevant.

You mention PFF in the article. PFF says only 76 of Fitz's 148 targets last season were catchable. That is only 51.4%. Meanwhile, PFF says DHB, Moore, and Streater received 153 of 258 catchable targets. That is 59.3%. This suggests Fitz's catchable percentage will go up significantly, especially since he is more talented than all of those guys. That alone suggests Fitz is in line for another 20 catches or so.

I'm not saying Fitz should be ranked, much less drafted, as a top 5 WR. But I think he stands an excellent chance of finishing as a top 10 WR this season.
Housler has shown much more in his first two years than Myers did in his first three and was higher draft pick (3rd vs. 6th). I'm still not sure how he'll be used but I think he's a vastly superior talent to Myers.
Let me rephrase. Do you think Housler will be targeted as much as Myers was last season? That was the main point of that paragraph, that what happened in Oakland last season is not predictive of what will happen in Arizona this season.
I think that Palmer's current skill set and mental acuity point towards lower aDOT for all players, and that means more dump off plays to RBs and shorter passing routes to tight ends.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Among other things, you cite as a negative in this article that Palmer didn't target WRs with a high percentage of his pass attempts. But the situations are apples and oranges. Oakland's McFadden and Reece are much better receiving options than Arizona's RBs. Housler may have potential, but there is no reason to believe he will be as good of a receiving option as Myers. Meanwhile, Oakland had a group of average WRs in DHB, Moore, and Streater. I think it's obvious that Fitz, Floyd, and Roberts are a much stronger WR group. So the percentage of attempts to WRs in Oakland really do not seem predictive for Arizona.

You also show a lot of similarity scores that project out to performances in the WR27-ish range. But looking at those situations, how many are really comparable to Fitz's situation? How many of those players had been multi-time top 5 WRs? How many were Fitz's age or less? How many were switching to a situation with a new QB who by all accounts is expected to be a significant improvement? How many were also switching to a new coaching staff? I really don't see those comps as being relevant.

You mention PFF in the article. PFF says only 76 of Fitz's 148 targets last season were catchable. That is only 51.4%. Meanwhile, PFF says DHB, Moore, and Streater received 153 of 258 catchable targets. That is 59.3%. This suggests Fitz's catchable percentage will go up significantly, especially since he is more talented than all of those guys. That alone suggests Fitz is in line for another 20 catches or so.

I'm not saying Fitz should be ranked, much less drafted, as a top 5 WR. But I think he stands an excellent chance of finishing as a top 10 WR this season.
Housler has shown much more in his first two years than Myers did in his first three and was higher draft pick (3rd vs. 6th). I'm still not sure how he'll be used but I think he's a vastly superior talent to Myers.
Let me rephrase. Do you think Housler will be targeted as much as Myers was last season? That was the main point of that paragraph, that what happened in Oakland last season is not predictive of what will happen in Arizona this season.
I think that Palmer's current skill set and mental acuity point towards lower aDOT for all players, and that means more dump off plays to RBs and shorter passing routes to tight ends.
The Bruce Arians offense barely utilized RBs as pass catchers and largely ignored the TE position for the most part as well.
 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
I'd be less concerned with Fitzgerald if he finished as the #1 fantasy WR on his team last year, but he didn't. A 24-year-old Andre Roberts scored more FPs than Fitz in 2012 despite missing one game.

Fitz isn't Randy Moss, but I do think it's fair to question his effort last year. That's actually a good thing for his 2013 projections, as saying he wasn't trying as hard is better than saying he's lost a step. On the '06 Raiders, Ronald Curry actually gained more yards than Moss, and we saw what Moss did the next year.

As for Reggie Wayne, I don't think those comparisons are appropriate. The 2012 Colts threw about 100 more passes than the 2011 version, so it's not like the only reason for bigger numbers was Luck. The Cardinals already threw 600+ passes last year, and they're probably just as likely to throw fewer passes in 2013 than to throw more. The other reason it's a poor comparison is that Wayne is more of a downfield weapon than Fitzgerald. I'm not sure Fitz is the perfect player for an Arians system. He might be a good fit for Palmer, but assuming he's double-teamed all the time, I don't see a lot of reasons to expect a "breakout" year for Fitz.

With an ADP of 10, I'm not touching Fitz. I do like the idea of Floyd or Roberts late, though.

 

finito

Footballguy
96, 1320, 10 TDs. Top 5ish guy IMO. Palmer isn't a world beater but he's certainly good enough to make Fitz a stud once again.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
As long as Carson Palmer can stay upright, Fitzgerald should have a really nice bounce back year, and his ADP is very reasonable. Unquestioned talent, and Palmer made Ochocinco and Houshmandzahdeh fantasy studs in the past. I wouldn't be surprised if Fitzgerald returns to top 5 status.

89 rec, 1200 rec yds, 9 TD

 

cstu

Footballguy
Dr. Octopus said:
Lavachebeadsman said:
Just Win Baby said:
cstu said:
Just Win Baby said:
Lavachebeadsman said:
Among other things, you cite as a negative in this article that Palmer didn't target WRs with a high percentage of his pass attempts. But the situations are apples and oranges. Oakland's McFadden and Reece are much better receiving options than Arizona's RBs. Housler may have potential, but there is no reason to believe he will be as good of a receiving option as Myers. Meanwhile, Oakland had a group of average WRs in DHB, Moore, and Streater. I think it's obvious that Fitz, Floyd, and Roberts are a much stronger WR group. So the percentage of attempts to WRs in Oakland really do not seem predictive for Arizona.

You also show a lot of similarity scores that project out to performances in the WR27-ish range. But looking at those situations, how many are really comparable to Fitz's situation? How many of those players had been multi-time top 5 WRs? How many were Fitz's age or less? How many were switching to a situation with a new QB who by all accounts is expected to be a significant improvement? How many were also switching to a new coaching staff? I really don't see those comps as being relevant.

You mention PFF in the article. PFF says only 76 of Fitz's 148 targets last season were catchable. That is only 51.4%. Meanwhile, PFF says DHB, Moore, and Streater received 153 of 258 catchable targets. That is 59.3%. This suggests Fitz's catchable percentage will go up significantly, especially since he is more talented than all of those guys. That alone suggests Fitz is in line for another 20 catches or so.

I'm not saying Fitz should be ranked, much less drafted, as a top 5 WR. But I think he stands an excellent chance of finishing as a top 10 WR this season.
Housler has shown much more in his first two years than Myers did in his first three and was higher draft pick (3rd vs. 6th). I'm still not sure how he'll be used but I think he's a vastly superior talent to Myers.
Let me rephrase. Do you think Housler will be targeted as much as Myers was last season? That was the main point of that paragraph, that what happened in Oakland last season is not predictive of what will happen in Arizona this season.
I think that Palmer's current skill set and mental acuity point towards lower aDOT for all players, and that means more dump off plays to RBs and shorter passing routes to tight ends.
The Bruce Arians offense barely utilized RBs as pass catchers and largely ignored the TE position for the most part as well.
Heath Miller caught 76 passes in 2009 and the Colts TE's caught 71 last year.

 

KrazyKyle

Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:
I'd be less concerned with Fitzgerald if he finished as the #1 fantasy WR on his team last year, but he didn't. A 24-year-old Andre Roberts scored more FPs than Fitz in 2012 despite missing one game. Fitz isn't Randy Moss, but I do think it's fair to question his effort last year. That's actually a good thing for his 2013 projections, as saying he wasn't trying as hard is better than saying he's lost a step. On the '06 Raiders, Ronald Curry actually gained more yards than Moss, and we saw what Moss did the next year. As for Reggie Wayne, I don't think those comparisons are appropriate. The 2012 Colts threw about 100 more passes than the 2011 version, so it's not like the only reason for bigger numbers was Luck. The Cardinals already threw 600+ passes last year, and they're probably just as likely to throw fewer passes in 2013 than to throw more. The other reason it's a poor comparison is that Wayne is more of a downfield weapon than Fitzgerald. I'm not sure Fitz is the perfect player for an Arians system. He might be a good fit for Palmer, but assuming he's double-teamed all the time, I don't see a lot of reasons to expect a "breakout" year for Fitz. With an ADP of 10, I'm not touching Fitz. I do like the idea of Floyd or Roberts late, though.
To question Fitzgerald's effort and work ethic is ludicrous. He is the true definition of a professional. Comparing his dedication to Randy Moss as a Raider is uncalled for and quite frankly is offensive.Keep in mind that weeks 10-15 coach Whiz kept going with Ryan Lindley, which ultimately got Whiz fired. During those weeks Lindley had ZERO TDs and 7 ints. A completion rate of 52% and a grand total of 752 yards, with 312 coming in one week. Many factors contributes to a horrible season for Fitz but obviously QB play was the number one factor.I would expect his value to be much higher in a PPR than standard as his average depth of target will not be impressive. He is an elite talent with some of the best hands in the game. His ceilings isn't as high as others but throw out last year and he is one of the more consistent WRs out there. I'd be much more comfortable with him as a wr2 but are there really 12 others you'd take in front of him?As far as Floyd goes, I think the hype train is about to pick up real quick!
 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Dr. Octopus said:
The Bruce Arians offense barely utilized RBs as pass catchers and largely ignored the TE position for the most part as well.
Heath Miller caught 76 passes in 2009 and the Colts TE's caught 71 last year.
The Colts ranked 13th in TE targets last year and 17th in 2009. Miller's 76 receptions seem like a lot, but only 7 other receptions were made by his backups.

It appears that Arians is middle of the road when it comes to TE targets.

In 2009, the Steelers ranked 31st in RB targets. In 2012, the Colts ranked 32nd in RB targets.

Overall, I'd say there will be plenty of WR targets to go around in Arizona. This topic is pretty popular so no need to go into a lot of detail, but I expect a resurgence by Fitz. His ypr is hard to predict, but I think he's ridiculous value at WR9 right now even if he only puts up 12 ypr.

150 targets x 60% = 90 receptions x 14 ypr = 1260 yds 9 TDs

 

humpback

Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:
I'd be less concerned with Fitzgerald if he finished as the #1 fantasy WR on his team last year, but he didn't. A 24-year-old Andre Roberts scored more FPs than Fitz in 2012 despite missing one game.

Fitz isn't Randy Moss, but I do think it's fair to question his effort last year. That's actually a good thing for his 2013 projections, as saying he wasn't trying as hard is better than saying he's lost a step. On the '06 Raiders, Ronald Curry actually gained more yards than Moss, and we saw what Moss did the next year.

As for Reggie Wayne, I don't think those comparisons are appropriate. The 2012 Colts threw about 100 more passes than the 2011 version, so it's not like the only reason for bigger numbers was Luck. The Cardinals already threw 600+ passes last year, and they're probably just as likely to throw fewer passes in 2013 than to throw more. The other reason it's a poor comparison is that Wayne is more of a downfield weapon than Fitzgerald. I'm not sure Fitz is the perfect player for an Arians system. He might be a good fit for Palmer, but assuming he's double-teamed all the time, I don't see a lot of reasons to expect a "breakout" year for Fitz.

With an ADP of 10, I'm not touching Fitz. I do like the idea of Floyd or Roberts late, though.
Volume of passes is a factor, but I think the quality of the passes is a larger one. Also, not sure why you consider Wayne more of a downfield weapon than Fitz.

 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:
I'd be less concerned with Fitzgerald if he finished as the #1 fantasy WR on his team last year, but he didn't. A 24-year-old Andre Roberts scored more FPs than Fitz in 2012 despite missing one game. Fitz isn't Randy Moss, but I do think it's fair to question his effort last year. That's actually a good thing for his 2013 projections, as saying he wasn't trying as hard is better than saying he's lost a step. On the '06 Raiders, Ronald Curry actually gained more yards than Moss, and we saw what Moss did the next year. As for Reggie Wayne, I don't think those comparisons are appropriate. The 2012 Colts threw about 100 more passes than the 2011 version, so it's not like the only reason for bigger numbers was Luck. The Cardinals already threw 600+ passes last year, and they're probably just as likely to throw fewer passes in 2013 than to throw more. The other reason it's a poor comparison is that Wayne is more of a downfield weapon than Fitzgerald. I'm not sure Fitz is the perfect player for an Arians system. He might be a good fit for Palmer, but assuming he's double-teamed all the time, I don't see a lot of reasons to expect a "breakout" year for Fitz. With an ADP of 10, I'm not touching Fitz. I do like the idea of Floyd or Roberts late, though.
To question Fitzgerald's effort and work ethic is ludicrous. He is the true definition of a professional. Comparing his dedication to Randy Moss as a Raider is uncalled for and quite frankly is offensive.Keep in mind that weeks 10-15 coach Whiz kept going with Ryan Lindley, which ultimately got Whiz fired. During those weeks Lindley had ZERO TDs and 7 ints. A completion rate of 52% and a grand total of 752 yards, with 312 coming in one week. Many factors contributes to a horrible season for Fitz but obviously QB play was the number one factor.I would expect his value to be much higher in a PPR than standard as his average depth of target will not be impressive. He is an elite talent with some of the best hands in the game. His ceilings isn't as high as others but throw out last year and he is one of the more consistent WRs out there. I'd be much more comfortable with him as a wr2 but are there really 12 others you'd take in front of him?As far as Floyd goes, I think the hype train is about to pick up real quick!
Why do you think Andre Roberts posted essentially the same stat line as Fitzgerald last year?
 
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tdmills

Footballguy
Chase Stuart said:
I'd be less concerned with Fitzgerald if he finished as the #1 fantasy WR on his team last year, but he didn't. A 24-year-old Andre Roberts scored more FPs than Fitz in 2012 despite missing one game. Fitz isn't Randy Moss, but I do think it's fair to question his effort last year. That's actually a good thing for his 2013 projections, as saying he wasn't trying as hard is better than saying he's lost a step. On the '06 Raiders, Ronald Curry actually gained more yards than Moss, and we saw what Moss did the next year. As for Reggie Wayne, I don't think those comparisons are appropriate. The 2012 Colts threw about 100 more passes than the 2011 version, so it's not like the only reason for bigger numbers was Luck. The Cardinals already threw 600+ passes last year, and they're probably just as likely to throw fewer passes in 2013 than to throw more. The other reason it's a poor comparison is that Wayne is more of a downfield weapon than Fitzgerald. I'm not sure Fitz is the perfect player for an Arians system. He might be a good fit for Palmer, but assuming he's double-teamed all the time, I don't see a lot of reasons to expect a "breakout" year for Fitz. With an ADP of 10, I'm not touching Fitz. I do like the idea of Floyd or Roberts late, though.
To question Fitzgerald's effort and work ethic is ludicrous. He is the true definition of a professional. Comparing his dedication to Randy Moss as a Raider is uncalled for and quite frankly is offensive.Keep in mind that weeks 10-15 coach Whiz kept going with Ryan Lindley, which ultimately got Whiz fired. During those weeks Lindley had ZERO TDs and 7 ints. A completion rate of 52% and a grand total of 752 yards, with 312 coming in one week. Many factors contributes to a horrible season for Fitz but obviously QB play was the number one factor.I would expect his value to be much higher in a PPR than standard as his average depth of target will not be impressive. He is an elite talent with some of the best hands in the game. His ceilings isn't as high as others but throw out last year and he is one of the more consistent WRs out there. I'd be much more comfortable with him as a wr2 but are there really 12 others you'd take in front of him?As far as Floyd goes, I think the hype train is about to pick up real quick!
Why do you think Andre Roberts essentially the same stat line as Fitzgerald last year?
Single coverage and playing against CB 2's

 

tdmills

Footballguy
Single coverage and playing against CB 2's
Is that going to change this year?
Yes, teams will have to respect Roberts/Floyd more because they're getting better.

Fitz had this problem every year Boldin wasn't a Cardinal and he was fine. The answer to this riddle: is Palmer better than the QB's they had last year? If yes, then he will have better numbers than any other cardinal WR.

 

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