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Player Spotlight: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Le'Veon Bell Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
300-1200-10 rush

40-300-2 catch

Biggest green light rookie rb with underrated receiving skills. Dude is the total package.

 
300-1200-10 rush40-300-2 catchBiggest green light rookie rb with underrated receiving skills. Dude is the total package.
This is the sweetspot for me. Basically between 1100 and 1300 rushing yards and 8-12 TD's. I think his TD's will be greatly impacted by the health of Heath Miller.

 
He's got great lateral agility and from there can use his big-frame to bounce off tackles and whatnot.

People question his talent but his main talent is durability. They drafted him to carry the ball 20+ times a game and with as many times as he's going to see the ball I would be very happy if he posted 4.0 YPC.

Throw in the fact that he is a threat in the passing game; Ben Roethisberger's improvisational skils and this guy has legit upside.

-

No defense is going to want to tackle a 230lb Running Back 20+ times a game. No one is going to want to chase him in the passing game. He can juke you out, he can spin around you.

Hi there, 192lb Defensive Back. Mr. Bell here (230lbs) is going to run through you and your pathetic arm tackles. :)

 
Saw him a lot in college games. Looks like one that can make the transition to the NFL due to his size and agility.

 
Like Bell a lot, I'm guessing a little over 1000 yards and between 8 - 10 TDs which would be a very good rookie season. Next season he could breakout as top ten back possibly, maybe not Doug Martin but not too far off.

 
In agreement with CentralPA on this year, but I think next year will be more of the same or potentially a COP back to contend with

 
I think this guy is going to be used quite a bit this year - not buying the Dwyer resurgence (he lost his shot) and Redman is just a situational back-up.

 
<p>News reports have surfaced claiming the Steelers plan on running more zone blocking schemes in 2013. That could be an indicator that they also plan on going with Bell right out of the gates. Zone blocking isn't only designed to open up running lanes, it's also a fairly consistent blocking scheme that doesn't require a lot of on-the-fly altercations that depend on what the defense is showing. That can play into the hands of a rookie like Bell who is learning a new system and needs time to develop the the skill and proper execution of more complicated blocking schemes.

Pittsburgh placed 20th in the NFL last year in rush attempts at 412. With the loss of Wallace, the addition of Bell and the change to a ZB scheme, I can see that 412 number going up. Even with a moderate increase to 440, and assuming Bell can get about 60% of the load, you're looking at just under 265 carries. While he average 4.69 yards/carry in 2012, I'll put him at 4.2 at the NFL level to stay conservative. That puts him at 264 carries for 1108 yards.

The Steelers placed in a 2-way tie with Dallas for 27th in the league for rushing TDs in 2012 with 8 total. Bell is a back that can punch the ball in, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Pittsburgh move up the ranks in this category as well. 12 TDs for the team with at least 8 going to Bell.

In summary, I think Bell's floor is about 264 attempts, 4.2 average for 1108 yards and 8 TDs, although the potential is there for him to do better than that. Throw in 32 pass receptions for an average of 6 totaling 192 yards and 1 score for good measure. 1300 from scrimmage and 9 scores total.

 
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Very interested in this situation, but I'm not feeling confident in Bell. Even optimistic scouting reports make it sound like this guy is good at everything, but great at nothing. Less optimistic articles call him the 4th best RB in the draft or say he was a 4th round talent. I'll have to see how camp pans out before making projections. It would be wise to approach this situation cautiously rather than projecting 250+ carries for an unspectacular rookie competing with two motivated veterans who have flashed talent previously. Contract years are always worth keeping an eye on.

But for those of you doing your projections right now, the Steelers had 412 rushes last year, but only 371 of them came from the running backs. I know it is simple to think, they lose Wallace and drafted a rookie, so they'll run more. Unfortunately that's now how it goes. Their defense is aging. They went from allowing 14.2 pts per game in 2011 to 19.6 pts per game last year (14.5 back in 2010). I would not be surprised if they are forced to throw more next year.

The good news is that the line will start the season healthy. People like to say that Dwyer and Redman got their chance and blew it, but that offensive line was decimated by injuries last year. Whether they start or not, they will look better behind this offensive line than they did behind last year's line.

IF a player is selected to get over 50% of the carries (including goal line) then this player should be in starting lineups every week. But I'm not confident in Bell enough to invest in him as my RB2. He currently carries a 4th to 5th round pricetag. That pretty high for a guy who, if we're being honest with ourselves, could be the third best back on his team this year. I'm sure people who have already drafted Bell will say that's stupid, Dwyer and Redman are scrubs, but try to recall that the hit rate for second round RBs is not very good. Over half of them amount to nothing.

Edit: typo

 
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Wouldn't surprise me at all if he had a similar season as Doug Martin did, minus the explosion week 9 against Oakland.

 
He's going to get his opportunities, and with the Steelers' change in blocking scheme and a healthier offensive line without the dead weight of Max Starks and ESPECIALLY Willie Colon, I think Bell has a chance at OPOY

285 carries, 1215 yards, 38 receptions, 345 yards, 12 TDs total

 
Steelers OL is poor and Ben wants to throw he ball.160--620--8 , 30--210--1
????

Steelers O-Line prob has more talent now than in last 3-4 years. Remember all the draft picks they have invested here the last few years.

Who is Ben going to throw to? Wallace (MIA)...MIller (INJ)....

That leaves us w/ Brown / Sanders / Wheaton ® and the backup TE's until Miller is back to full speed.

They are going to run more than in prior years, not less.

 
Steelers OL is poor and Ben wants to throw he ball.160--620--8 , 30--210--1
The Steelers line was decimated last year. They're now a healthy group. The WR corp isn't as good as it was. They're traditionally a running team. Not to say those projections are outlandish but just saying the OL will be better and the wideouts are a tick worse than last year.

 
I think we are anointing him just a little early. A young buck is brought in and suddenly the vet takes the fact that he might be out of the NFL within a year or two very seriously. Ask Fred Jackson

 
I think we are anointing him just a little early. A young buck is brought in and suddenly the vet takes the fact that he might be out of the NFL within a year or two very seriously. Ask Fred Jackson
I agree that people are waaaay too optimistic on Bell, but as a Steelers' fan I can promise you that Dwyer and Redman are not anywhere near Fred Jackson as RBs. Bell will be the lead dog unless he's an outright bust.
 
I think we are anointing him just a little early. A young buck is brought in and suddenly the vet takes the fact that he might be out of the NFL within a year or two very seriously. Ask Fred Jackson
I agree that people are waaaay too optimistic on Bell, but as a Steelers' fan I can promise you that Dwyer and Redman are not anywhere near Fred Jackson as RBs. Bell will be the lead dog unless he's an outright bust.
Or he gets dinged. Or he can't pass protect. Or he can't pick up the zone system. Or he gets in the doghouse. Lots of reasons he could find himself mired in a committee.

 
I think we are anointing him just a little early. A young buck is brought in and suddenly the vet takes the fact that he might be out of the NFL within a year or two very seriously. Ask Fred Jackson
I agree that people are waaaay too optimistic on Bell, but as a Steelers' fan I can promise you that Dwyer and Redman are not anywhere near Fred Jackson as RBs. Bell will be the lead dog unless he's an outright bust.
Or he gets dinged. Or he can't pass protect. Or he can't pick up the zone system. Or he gets in the doghouse. Lots of reasons he could find himself mired in a committee.
We talk a lot about Fox's propensity to use vets over rooks, how is Tomlin in this regard? I don't recall a ton of rookies coming to the fore (but maybe the star power in Pitt just overshadowed them)

 
Steelers OL is poor and Ben wants to throw he ball.160--620--8 , 30--210--1
????

Steelers O-Line prob has more talent now than in last 3-4 years. Remember all the draft picks they have invested here the last few years.

Who is Ben going to throw to? Wallace (MIA)...MIller (INJ)....

That leaves us w/ Brown / Sanders / Wheaton ® and the backup TE's until Miller is back to full speed.

They are going to run more than in prior years, not less.
:shrug: I don't think the PIT OL is very good at all and there has not been a commitment to the run in past years. IMO all of these people predicting 300 carries are basing this on the historical idea of PIT being a smash mouth team instead of the finesse squad they currently are. Again, JMO.

 
Just to clarify....I am not expecting 300+ either

But I also think it will be higher than your 160ish floor.

Thinking around 210-225 sounds about right

 
I think we are anointing him just a little early. A young buck is brought in and suddenly the vet takes the fact that he might be out of the NFL within a year or two very seriously. Ask Fred Jackson
I agree that people are waaaay too optimistic on Bell, but as a Steelers' fan I can promise you that Dwyer and Redman are not anywhere near Fred Jackson as RBs. Bell will be the lead dog unless he's an outright bust.
Or he gets dinged. Or he can't pass protect. Or he can't pick up the zone system. Or he gets in the doghouse. Lots of reasons he could find himself mired in a committee.
Agree fully that it's probably a committee, just sayin Bell doesn't have to be a Pro Bowler or anything to get more work than the other two guys. Neither has it in em to step it up big time IMO.
 
Barring injury I see his floor as 1000 yards rushing, 200 yards receiving, and 6 tds. The Steelers were begging Dwyer, Mendenhall, or Redman to take over as the lead back last season. If Bell can be average at pass blocking he will win the starting job and get 250+ carries and only need to average 4 yards per carry to do so, add in that the Steelers best red zone threat is going to probably be on pup to start the year and this guy becomes the first red zone option and should fall into 6 tds.

 
Watching some highlights of Bell and to be honest his highlights remind of Legarette Blount. I'm not sure what to make of that though because I don't think Blounts' problems had to do with his skills as much as it did his mind.

 
I'm not ready to call him Legarette Blount just yet, but I need to see him in some preseason games. All his highlights have him jumping over players and breaking tackles. I just don't think he will be able to do that in the NFL. He also runs high and is tall to begin with. He seems like an injury waiting to happen.

 
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I'm not ready to call him Legarette Blount just yet, but I need to see him in some preseason games. All his highlights have him jumping over players and breaking tackles. I just don't think he will be able to do that in the NFL. He also runs high and is tall to begin with. He seems like an injury waiting to happen.
It seems like you think I'm putting a negative or positive light on him (I'm assuming negative but not sure) but I'm not. Very neutral.

Bell is a big back who can jump over guys and runs tall like you said which shows great athleticism. He might dance a little too much for my liking in a bigger back. He also seemed to just lower his head and both shoulders when initiated contact, kind of just hunching over if that makes sense, instead getting lower and truly running over guys. These things are very fixable if a player.

Has he had any off field or "character" issues?

Edit:

So, I thought I was pretty smart with my Blount comparison until I went and read his NFL.com draft profile and they said what I said and much more. :doh:

 
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So the D is aging and the WR corps is a shell of what it used to be. Maybe some ground and pound to control the clock and keep the other offense off the field? Basically using the offense to help the D. Seems like Bell is an IDEAL back for a situation like that. But that's just me...

 
So the D is aging and the WR corps is a shell of what it used to be. Maybe some ground and pound to control the clock and keep the other offense off the field? Basically using the offense to help the D. Seems like Bell is an IDEAL back for a situation like that. But that's just me...
I agree. I think Bell comes into a fantastic situation - probably the best situation among the rookies considering their respective competition (Montee Ball has more competition for carries IMO). The big question is whether he's got the goods - hopefully preseason will give some insight.

 
So the D is aging and the WR corps is a shell of what it used to be. Maybe some ground and pound to control the clock and keep the other offense off the field? Basically using the offense to help the D. Seems like Bell is an IDEAL back for a situation like that. But that's just me...
I agree. I think Bell comes into a fantastic situation - probably the best situation among the rookies considering their respective competition (Montee Ball has more competition for carries IMO). The big question is whether he's got the goods - hopefully preseason will give some insight.
Obviously he has to show he can do it in the pros. He needs to be able to pass protect first and foremost and then he needs to be able to do one cut and gone well enough to move the chains. If he can't do those things then we see more Redman and Dwyer and we all lick our chops at the RB the Steelers draft high next year...

 
I'm not ready to call him Legarette Blount just yet, but I need to see him in some preseason games. All his highlights have him jumping over players and breaking tackles. I just don't think he will be able to do that in the NFL. He also runs high and is tall to begin with. He seems like an injury waiting to happen.
dood carried the ball 380 times last year (I think), he barely if ever came off the field for being nicked up

 
I'm not ready to call him Legarette Blount just yet, but I need to see him in some preseason games. All his highlights have him jumping over players and breaking tackles. I just don't think he will be able to do that in the NFL. He also runs high and is tall to begin with. He seems like an injury waiting to happen.
dood carried the ball 380 times last year (I think), he barely if ever came off the field for being nicked up
Yea because carrying the ball 380 times in college is the same as the NFL. I stand by my post.

 
I'm not ready to call him Legarette Blount just yet, but I need to see him in some preseason games. All his highlights have him jumping over players and breaking tackles. I just don't think he will be able to do that in the NFL. He also runs high and is tall to begin with. He seems like an injury waiting to happen.
dood carried the ball 380 times last year (I think), he barely if ever came off the field for being nicked up
Yea because carrying the ball 380 times in college is the same as the NFL. I stand by my post.
obviously not the same, but that fact that he barely if ever game out, or got nicked up means something. DB's aren't that much bigger in the NFL than they are in college. He will still have 40 pounds over them.

 
Rookie kook-aid. Ahhhhhhh. Goes down so smooth. Year after year.

Seriously all these rookie projections are getting out of control. By most accounts this is the weakest class for offense in quite some time, yet folks predicting top 10 stats (positional) for many rookies. Comon man!

150 carries 575 yards 15 rec 115 yards 6 total TD.

 
Rookie kook-aid. Ahhhhhhh. Goes down so smooth. Year after year.

Seriously all these rookie projections are getting out of control. By most accounts this is the weakest class for offense in quite some time, yet folks predicting top 10 stats (positional) for many rookies. Comon man!

150 carries 575 yards 15 rec 115 yards 6 total TD.
I get what you are saying on tempering the enthusiasm, but then you do the exact opposite the other way with 575 yards. Comon man!

 
Rookie kook-aid. Ahhhhhhh. Goes down so smooth. Year after year.

Seriously all these rookie projections are getting out of control. By most accounts this is the weakest class for offense in quite some time, yet folks predicting top 10 stats (positional) for many rookies. Comon man!

150 carries 575 yards 15 rec 115 yards 6 total TD.
I get what you are saying on tempering the enthusiasm, but then you do the exact opposite the other way with 575 yards. Comon man!
2012:

Dwyer 156 for 623.

Redman 110 for 410.

Mendy 52 for 195.

Redman is still going to get the ball. Dwyer too. Maybe I undershot a tad, but I think my numbers are much more realistic than those 1200 total yard numbers. Bell, IMO, is not special enough to hog the carries.

 
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
TheFanatic said:
ROYALWITCHEESE said:
Rookie kook-aid. Ahhhhhhh. Goes down so smooth. Year after year.

Seriously all these rookie projections are getting out of control. By most accounts this is the weakest class for offense in quite some time, yet folks predicting top 10 stats (positional) for many rookies. Comon man!

150 carries 575 yards 15 rec 115 yards 6 total TD.
I get what you are saying on tempering the enthusiasm, but then you do the exact opposite the other way with 575 yards. Comon man!
2012:

Dwyer 156 for 623.

Redman 110 for 410.

Mendy 52 for 195.

Redman is still going to get the ball. Dwyer too. Maybe I undershot a tad, but I think my numbers are much more realistic than those 1200 total yard numbers. Bell, IMO, is not special enough to hog the carries.
Maybe not, but in a re-draft, is he not worth a 3rd/4th round pick? That's where Richardson and Martin seemed to go last year and they were boons to teams that could hit on QB/WR/TE in the first 2 rounds. Bell seems to be worth a similar target, I think, though certainly Richardson had far greater certainty in his role.

 
This guy reminds me of Steven Jackson when he was coming out of college. He runs a little too upright. That can be coached up. The Steelers are moving to a zone blocking scheme and plan on returning to the Smash mouth brand of football they are known for. They were one of the worst running teams in the 4th quarter last year. Expect a focus on the run this season.

Bell gets 1200+ on the ground and at least 200 in the air. They are going to run the snot out this guy with no real #1 WR. Expect a dozen TD's.

 
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This guy reminds me of Steven Jackson. He runs a little too upright. That can be coached up. The Steelers are moving to a zone blocking scheme and plan on returning to the Smash mouth brand of football they are known for. They were one of the worst running teams in the 4th quarter last year. Expect a focus on the run this season.

Bell gets 1200+ on the ground and at least 200 in the air. They are going to run the snot out this guy with no real #1 WR. Expect a dozen TD's.
Steven Jackson? lol funny. Jackson was stupid fast coming out. Bell is not. Maybe he reminds you of an old Steven Jackson...

 
This guy reminds me of Steven Jackson. He runs a little too upright. That can be coached up. The Steelers are moving to a zone blocking scheme and plan on returning to the Smash mouth brand of football they are known for. They were one of the worst running teams in the 4th quarter last year. Expect a focus on the run this season.

Bell gets 1200+ on the ground and at least 200 in the air. They are going to run the snot out this guy with no real #1 WR. Expect a dozen TD's.
Steven Jackson? lol funny. Jackson was stupid fast coming out. Bell is not. Maybe he reminds you of an old Steven Jackson...

Maybe SJax WAS faster coming out of college but he couldn't have been a whole lot faster. SJax ran a 4.55 on his pro day. Bell has been clocked at 4.56. They were both pretty much the same size and style of running.. Who cares if SJax was one or two 1/100ths of a second faster running in a straight line? Thanks for your informative response though. Your forecast for nothing is spot on. Please consider changing your name to something more appropriate like "den mother." Or "hall monitor." Click on the link to hear Buck Brooks make the exact same comparison as I have http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-pro-comparison/0ap2000000154756/Le-Veon-Bell-pro-comparison. Now you can go back to your un-informed useless posting.
 
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This guy reminds me of Steven Jackson. He runs a little too upright. That can be coached up. The Steelers are moving to a zone blocking scheme and plan on returning to the Smash mouth brand of football they are known for. They were one of the worst running teams in the 4th quarter last year. Expect a focus on the run this season.

Bell gets 1200+ on the ground and at least 200 in the air. They are going to run the snot out this guy with no real #1 WR. Expect a dozen TD's.
Steven Jackson? lol funny. Jackson was stupid fast coming out. Bell is not. Maybe he reminds you of an old Steven Jackson...Maybe SJax WAS faster coming out of college but he couldn't have been a whole lot faster. SJax ran a 4.55 on his pro day. Bell has been clocked at 4.56. They were both pretty much the same size and style of running.. Who cares if SJax was one or two 1/100ths of a second faster running in a straight line? Thanks for your informative response though. Your forecast for nothing is spot on. Please consider changing your name to something more appropriate like "den mother." Or "hall monitor." Click on the link to hear Buck Brooks make the exact same comparison as I have http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-pro-comparison/0ap2000000154756/Le-Veon-Bell-pro-comparison. Now you can go back to your un-informed useless posting.
Bucky Brooks? Who is he? Steven Jackson could run away from people at the nfl level. Bell will not.

I'll take a bet the your boy doesn't net 1000 total yards, since you and Bucky are so smart.

This will be RBBC city.

 
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If Bell keeps looking good, I don't think it matters how good he is compared to other RB's around the league. It will just matter that he is better than Dwyer and Redman, which isn't too difficult to achieve. He could get a monster number of touches just by being above average--and if we're wrong, and he's actually better than myself and other doubters think at the NFL level, he could be fantasy gold. It's something to keep in mind, the Steelers have a great FO and valued him highly.

 
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Bucky Brooks? Who is he?Steven Jackson could run away from people at the nfl level. Bell will not.

I'll take a bet the your boy doesn't net 1000 total yards, since you and Bucky are so smart.

This will be RBBC city.
I'll throw a bet out there that Bell has 1000+ total yards, barring significant injury (misses 3+ games).

$10 friendly wager? Loser donates $10 to Red Cross. That way if you don't pay up you're just a d*ck.

 
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Bucky Brooks? Who is he?Steven Jackson could run away from people at the nfl level. Bell will not.

I'll take a bet the your boy doesn't net 1000 total yards, since you and Bucky are so smart.

This will be RBBC city.
I'll throw a bet out there that Bell has 1000+ total yards, barring significant injury (misses 3+ games).

$10 friendly wager? Loser donates $10 to Red Cross. That way if you don't pay up you're just a d*ck.
Bet.

 

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