Player Spotlight: Marshawn Lynch (1 Viewer)

[GroveDiesel]

Lynch is my sleeper for the draft of 2007. I won't go as far as to give outrageous projections, but I think he will be solid in there. He couldn't have landed on a team any hungrier for a young RB to carry the load. As a Losman owner, I'm a bit curious about his pass catching skills. If anyone watched him alot in college and is "in the know" please discuss.

Here's a nice YouTube clip with Lynch highlights. He makes quite a few nice catches in there.It's one of the reasons the Bills loved Lynch actually and one of the reasons that they got rid of McGahee. They wanted a back that can catch the ball. In the first set of OTAs they split him out wide for most of the practices.

I will note that A-Train is still getting the bulk of the first team carries right now though. It's early and Lynch hasn't had a lot of time to get to know the playbook yet, but they certainly haven't just slotted him into the #1 RB slot right away.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I expect a bit of a Bell Curve from Lynch this season. I think that starts off a little slowly as he learns the offense and gains the trust of Jauron with his blocking skills. Then he should hit his stride through the middle of the season on a Bills offense that will be a little better than expected, but is facing a tougher schedule than I think most realize. Finally around week 13 or so I expect him to hit the rookie wall, as most do, especially given that he did share some of the load at Cal.

265/1058/7

24/196/2

 

[weasel3515]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

 

[CalBear]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

 

[Duke1948]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

also if i remember correctly arrington showed out at the combines, that helped shoot him up the dynasty boards.and i agree lynch is a different style of runner.

 

[weasel3515]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

 

[Ford Prefect]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

What's the point to this question? Nobody is claiming that Cal is historically a NFL factory. What does this have to do with how Lynch will do?If you really feel that it's a relevent question, then how about before LJ, when was the last time a Penn St. RB did well in the NFL? Penn St. has at least had a lot of players in general go to the NFL so there is more of a comparison point than there is for Lynch.

 

[weasel3515]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

What's the point to this question? Nobody is claiming that Cal is historically a NFL factory. What does this have to do with how Lynch will do?If you really feel that it's a relevent question, then how about before LJ, when was the last time a Penn St. RB did well in the NFL? Penn St. has at least had a lot of players in general go to the NFL so there is more of a comparison point than there is for Lynch.

I'm glad you brought up your comparison of Penn St. and Cal. LJ has had one and a half great seasons because he had the benefit of running behind the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL for the last decade. That O-line made every RB who ran behind them look awesome. LJ will be a huge bust this year now that most of the line is gone meaning he will not look much different than any other Penn St. RB.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

What's the point to this question? Nobody is claiming that Cal is historically a NFL factory. What does this have to do with how Lynch will do?If you really feel that it's a relevent question, then how about before LJ, when was the last time a Penn St. RB did well in the NFL? Penn St. has at least had a lot of players in general go to the NFL so there is more of a comparison point than there is for Lynch.

I'm glad you brought up your comparison of Penn St. and Cal. LJ has had one and a half great seasons because he had the benefit of running behind the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL for the last decade. That O-line made every RB who ran behind them look awesome. LJ will be a huge bust this year now that most of the line is gone meaning he will not look much different than any other Penn St. RB.

Didn't the Bills make some solid changes to their offensive line? How many carries are you expecting Lynch to receive?

 

[GroveDiesel]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

When was the last time a Tennessee QB did well in the NFL before Manning? When was the last time a TCU RB did well in the NFL before Tomlinson? Seems like a stupid game IMO.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

Depends on what you want out of your RB.They had 2 common opponents, AD ran for 376yds and 3 TDs in those two games. Lynch went for 201yds and 2 TDs. AD had a lot more carries, but isn't that part of the difference? Lynch shared some time and never ran the ball 30 times in a game his entire career (a number AD just about averaged by the end of his).For reference, AD's numbers in those games:32 carries, 165yds, 1td34 carries, 211yds, 2tdLynch's:7 carries, 50yds21 carries, 150yds, 2tdIt's also worth noting that Lynch was playing on a much better offense. Teams were putting 11 guys in the box to stop AD, and putting 11 in the secondary to stop Cal's passing aerial attack.

 

[Ford Prefect]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

What's the point to this question? Nobody is claiming that Cal is historically a NFL factory. What does this have to do with how Lynch will do?If you really feel that it's a relevent question, then how about before LJ, when was the last time a Penn St. RB did well in the NFL? Penn St. has at least had a lot of players in general go to the NFL so there is more of a comparison point than there is for Lynch.

I'm glad you brought up your comparison of Penn St. and Cal. LJ has had one and a half great seasons because he had the benefit of running behind the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL for the last decade. That O-line made every RB who ran behind them look awesome. LJ will be a huge bust this year now that most of the line is gone meaning he will not look much different than any other Penn St. RB.

You still didn't answer my question. What does Cal's history have to do with Lynch's chances? Like I mentioned, nobody claimed Cal is a football factory, so their history is even more irrelevant since there are so few comparison points. Also, your speculation that LJ will be bad on any other team or behind this year's KC o-line is just speculation. There is no basis in fact in that assessment.

 

[CalBear]

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

The literal answer to your question is Chuck Muncie, whose performance as a pro is almost exactly as relevant as Arrington's. Here are the top 3 from last year:Tomlinson (TCU)--when's the last time a TCU RB did well in the NFL?Larry Johnson (Penn State)--when's the last time a Penn State RB did well?Steven Jackson (Oregon State)--when's the last time an Oregon State RB did well?The question is completely meaningless. (Oh, and by the way...Steven Jackson was a Pac-10 RB).

 

[ImTheScientist]

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

The literal answer to your question is Chuck Muncie, whose performance as a pro is almost exactly as relevant as Arrington's. Here are the top 3 from last year:Tomlinson (TCU)--when's the last time a TCU RB did well in the NFL?Larry Johnson (Penn State)--when's the last time a Penn State RB did well?Steven Jackson (Oregon State)--when's the last time an Oregon State RB did well?The question is completely meaningless. (Oh, and by the way...Steven Jackson was a Pac-10 RB).

People who make that argument are not well informed

 

[stevegamer]

I always liked Chuck Muncie.

However, regarding Lynch, I think A-Train is not nearly as washed up as many think. I thinkthe OL has been improved, and both will be a significant factor in Lynch's output this year.

I'll give Lynch 850 yds on ~200 carries, with 250 yards on ~30 catches.

I think, like many, the production will ramp up over the course of the season, but there could be a rookie "wall", since he's split time in college, it's probably best he do so in the NFL season 1.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

What's the point to this question? Nobody is claiming that Cal is historically a NFL factory. What does this have to do with how Lynch will do?If you really feel that it's a relevent question, then how about before LJ, when was the last time a Penn St. RB did well in the NFL? Penn St. has at least had a lot of players in general go to the NFL so there is more of a comparison point than there is for Lynch.

I'm glad you brought up your comparison of Penn St. and Cal. LJ has had one and a half great seasons because he had the benefit of running behind the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL for the last decade. That O-line made every RB who ran behind them look awesome. LJ will be a huge bust this year now that most of the line is gone meaning he will not look much different than any other Penn St. RB.

Do you know that 3 of the top 50 RBs of all time according to the Sporting News went to Penn State? Only 4 schools have more. Get some historical education before you post. TIA.

 

[EBF]

Ugh. Lynch is not JJ Arrington. Anyone who watches Pac-10 football can tell you that there's a world of difference between these two.

And what does the history of Cal RBs have to do with Lynch's odds for success? There were no great TCU RBs until Tomlinson. Every player is a unique event. To dismiss him based on the failures of past Cal RBs would be a mistake.

Lynch lacks the elite burst to be one of the best RBs in the NFL, but he should develop into an average starter if he keeps his head screwed on straight. He has a great opportunity to step in and immediately produce as Buffalo's opening day starter. I look for something like:

260-300 carries

1100-1300 rushing yards

5-10 rushing TDs

30-40 catches

200-400 receiving yards

2-3 receiving TDs

I think he'll probably be on the lower end of this spectrum.

 

[shadyridr]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

What's the point to this question? Nobody is claiming that Cal is historically a NFL factory. What does this have to do with how Lynch will do?If you really feel that it's a relevent question, then how about before LJ, when was the last time a Penn St. RB did well in the NFL? Penn St. has at least had a lot of players in general go to the NFL so there is more of a comparison point than there is for Lynch.

I'm glad you brought up your comparison of Penn St. and Cal. LJ has had one and a half great seasons because he had the benefit of running behind the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL for the last decade. That O-line made every RB who ran behind them look awesome. LJ will be a huge bust this year now that most of the line is gone meaning he will not look much different than any other Penn St. RB.

Some great analysis here.

 

[Traders2001]

100 carries 320 yards ( Loses his starting job to Thomas ??? )

Bust .

 

[rzrback77]

I have to do more research to determine projections for rookies, especially rookie running backs. This off-season there have been multiple threads about RBBC and specifically RBBCs involving rookies. Well, I was curious about how effective rookie runnning backs have been recently , so I visited the data dominator. I focused on how many rookies over the past five seasons had produced over 100 fantasy points (FBG scoring, not ppr).

Two in 02

Portis 1508 rush yds & 364 receiving yds 17 TDs for 289 fantasy points

Shipp 834 rush yds & 413 receiving yds 9 TDs for 179 fantasy points

One in 03

Dom Davis 1031 rush yds & 351 receiving yds 8 TDs for 186 fantasy points

None in 04

One in 05

Ronnie Brown 907 rush yds & 232 receiving yds 5 TDs for 141 fantasy points

and an amazing four in 06

MJ Drew 941 rush yds & 436 receiving yds 15 TDs for 237 fantasy points

Addai 1081 rush yds & 325 receiving yds 8 TDs for 189 fantasy points

R Bush 565 rush yds & 742 receiving yds 8 TDs for 178 fantasy points

L Washington 650 rush yds & 270 receiving yds 4 TDs for 116 fantasy points

Now, considering that Buffalo has rushed for 1408 yards in 05 and only 1370 yards in 06 AS A TEAM, it seems as though the expectations for rookie Marshawn Lynch should be lowered. Personally, I think that he will make the 100 fantasy point plateau, but just barely.

Lynch 170 carries 680 yards (4.0 ypc) and 28 receptions for 140 yds and 4 TDs 106 fantasy pts

 

[Q-Bert]

I have to do more research to determine projections for rookies, especially rookie running backs. This off-season there have been multiple threads about RBBC and specifically RBBCs involving rookies. Well, I was curious about how effective rookie runnning backs have been recently , so I visited the data dominator. I focused on how many rookies over the past five seasons had produced over 100 fantasy points (FBG scoring, not ppr).

Two Three in 02

Portis 1508 rush yds & 364 receiving yds 17 TDs for 289 fantasy points

Shipp 834 rush yds & 413 receiving yds 9 TDs for 179 fantasy points

William Green 887 rush yds & 113 rec yds 6 TDs for 136 fantasy points

One Two in 03

Dom Davis 1031 rush yds & 351 receiving yds 8 TDs for 186 fantasy points

Onterrio Smith 579 rush yds & 129 rec yds 5 TDs for 100 fantasy points

None Three in 04

Kevin Jones 1133 rush yds & 180 rec yds 6 TDs for 167 fantasy points

Julius Jones 819 rush yds & 109 rec yds 7 TDs for 134 fantasy points

Steven Jackson 673 rush yds & 189 rec yds 4 TDs for 110 fantasy points

One Three in 05

Ronnie Brown 907 rush yds & 232 receiving yds 5 TDs for 141 fantasy points

Cadillac Williams 1178 rush yds & 81 rec yds 6 TDs for 161 fantasy points

Samkon Gado 582 rush yds & 77 rec yds 7 TDs for 107 fantasy points

and an amazing four six in 06

MJ Drew 941 rush yds & 436 receiving yds 15 TDs for 237 fantasy points

Addai 1081 rush yds & 325 receiving yds 8 TDs for 189 fantasy points

R Bush 565 rush yds & 742 receiving yds 8 TDs for 178 fantasy points

L Washington 650 rush yds & 270 receiving yds 4 TDs for 116 fantasy points

Laurency Maroney 745 rush yds & 194 rec yds 7 TDs for 135 fantasy points

Mike Bell 677 rush yds & 158 rec yds 8 TDs for 131 fantasy points

Now, considering that Buffalo has rushed for 1408 yards in 05 and only 1370 yards in 06 AS A TEAM, it seems as though the expectations for rookie Marshawn Lynch should be lowered. Personally, I think that he will make the 100 fantasy point plateau, but just barely.

Lynch 170 carries 680 yards (4.0 ypc) and 28 receptions for 140 yds and 4 TDs 106 fantasy pts

 

[switz]

Lynch is a huge upgrade in the passing game from Willis.TDs may be high if Wright becomes the short yardage back.

I can only see Lynch being good in Buffalo's offense. He fits into the mold they want for an RB, and as long as he is as talented as scouts say, he will do fine. This year he outperforms Peterson.

 

[switz]

Ugh. Lynch is not JJ Arrington.

No. Joseph Addai is

 

[Jason Wood]

Now, considering that Buffalo has rushed for 1408 1,607 yards in 05 and only 1370 1,552 yards in 06 AS A TEAM, it seems as though the expectations for rookie Marshawn Lynch should be lowered. Personally, I think that he will make the 100 fantasy point plateau, but just barely.

Lynch 170 carries 680 yards (4.0 ypc) and 28 receptions for 140 yds and 4 TDs 106 fantasy pts

 

[EBF]

Anthony Thomas will be an afterthought by week 2-3. He's not very good.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Anthony Thomas will be an afterthought by week 2-3. He's not very good.

That may be true, but I know he's better than Willis McGahee...

 

[EBF]

Anthony Thomas will be an afterthought by week 2-3. He's not very good.

That may be true, but I know he's better than Willis McGahee...

McGahee has a lot more talent than Thomas. Thomas has been putrid for the past three years. He's the definition of journeyman. Unless Lynch is a complete flop, Thomas will be riding the pine all season. This is a lot closer to Caddy/Pittman than Benson/TJ.

 

[D_House]

I have to do more research

 

[rzrback77]

Now, considering that Buffalo has rushed for 1408 1,607 yards in 05 and only 1370 1,552 yards in 06 AS A TEAM, it seems as though the expectations for rookie Marshawn Lynch should be lowered. Personally, I think that he will make the 100 fantasy point plateau, but just barely.

Lynch 170 carries 680 yards (4.0 ypc) and 28 receptions for 140 yds and 4 TDs 106 fantasy pts

Sorry, been out of town picking up my grandaughter for a week's stay. The numbers are both right. Jason's are correct for overall rushing including WR and QB. My numbers are straight from FBG and are rushing totals ONLY FOR RUNNING BACKS. Sorry for the discrepancie.I am not sure what happened with the list of rookies making over 100 fantasy points. I was trying to get rushing yardage and receiving yardage and I may have put in a minimum receiving yardage which booted out all of those just barely listed 100 fantasy point RBs with not much receiving yardage.

Apologies, for the faulty numbers.

 

[rzrback77]

Follow up for the rookie running backs with over 100 fantasy points:

Six in 06, but only three with over 1000 total yards. Addai led with 1406 yds, then MJ Drew at 1377 yds, and Bush at 1307 yds. Lots of TDs with the 06 RBs, five over seven TDs and Drew with 15.

Three in 05, but 1259 total yds by Cadillac Williams was the max and Brown with 1139 yds was the only other over 1,000. More normal TDs at 7, 6 and 5 for the three rookies.

Four in 04, and again two over 1,000 total yds. Kevin Jones led with 1313 and Willis McGahee had 1297. Willis sored 13 TDs and the rest with 7, 6 and 4.

Two in 03 and only one over 1,000 total yds. Dom (Davis) Williams with 1382 yds and 8 TDs. The other rookie had 5 TDs.

Three in 02 and all three topped 1,000 total yds. Portis led the way with 1877 yds and 17 TDs, the top rookie performer over the past five seasons. Shipp had 1247 yds and 9 TDs. William Green had 1,000 yds exactly and 6 TDs.

In summary, out of all the rookie RBs over the past five years, only two have topped 1400 total yards. Portis at 1872 yds in 02 and Addai with 1406 yds last year. Both of these two were associated with solid rushing offenses. Several (nine) had between 1,000 and 1,400 total yds for their rookie years.

Even with the statistics error and the increased list of effective rookie RBs, I believe that Buffalo will run an RBBC as their coach has stated this off season. It may be Anthony Thomas and it may be somebody else not yet on the Bills roster, but I will hold to my original projection:

Lynch 170 carries 680 yards (4.0 ypc) and 28 receptions for 140 yds and 4 TDs 106 fantasy pts

Sorry again for the stat discrepancies.....carry on

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Follow up for the rookie running backs with over 100 fantasy points:Six in 06, but only three with over 1000 total yards. Addai led with 1406 yds, then MJ Drew at 1377 yds, and Bush at 1307 yds. Lots of TDs with the 06 RBs, five over seven TDs and Drew with 15.Three in 05, but 1259 total yds by Cadillac Williams was the max and Brown with 1139 yds was the only other over 1,000. More normal TDs at 7, 6 and 5 for the three rookies.Four in 04, and again two over 1,000 total yds. Kevin Jones led with 1313 and Willis McGahee had 1297. Willis sored 13 TDs and the rest with 7, 6 and 4.Two in 03 and only one over 1,000 total yds. Dom (Davis) Williams with 1382 yds and 8 TDs. The other rookie had 5 TDs.Three in 02 and all three topped 1,000 total yds. Portis led the way with 1877 yds and 17 TDs, the top rookie performer over the past five seasons. Shipp had 1247 yds and 9 TDs. William Green had 1,000 yds exactly and 6 TDs. In summary, out of all the rookie RBs over the past five years, only two have topped 1400 total yards. Portis at 1872 yds in 02 and Addai with 1406 yds last year. Both of these two were associated with solid rushing offenses. Several (nine) had between 1,000 and 1,400 total yds for their rookie years.Even with the statistics error and the increased list of effective rookie RBs, I believe that Buffalo will run an RBBC as their coach has stated this off season. It may be Anthony Thomas and it may be somebody else not yet on the Bills roster, but I will hold to my original projection:Lynch 170 carries 680 yards (4.0 ypc) and 28 receptions for 140 yds and 4 TDs 106 fantasy ptsSorry again for the stat discrepancies.....carry on

First off thanks for the stats and nice posts however, I think your projections for Lynch are too conservative; especially when looking at Buffalo's stats from last year, who is on their roster, and how things look to be shaping up for this up coming season. At this point I don't put a whole lot of value what other RB's did in their rookie seasons as it was totally different circumstances. If you are talking about an RBBC in Buffalo for next season and are using it to base your projections for Lynch you would have to view the RBBC split between between Lynch and Thomas. Last season, Thomas and McGahee had 366 of the Bills 370 rushes for Buffalo's running backs. I think the Bills view Thomas (a very average RB) as the veteran tail back who has had some success in the past and is a viable replacement for spot duty and for sharing some of the load next season. In fact, only 4 times did Thomas rush the ball more then 6 times in a game last season and in 2 of those games McGahee wasn't even dressed. Buffalo just invested a first rounder on Lynch and he is the guy they see as the future moving forward for their organization. They let their starting RB from last season go to make room for a new starting RB in which they think they have in Lynch. Entering this season Buffalo will not be bringing in anyone of significance to threaten for touches. If they do bring in another vet tail back (which I don't think they will) it will effect Thomas's role on the team not Lynch's. 24 teams rushed the ball more than Buffalo last season so I don't see the Bills regressing in rushing attempts and if they do regress the number will be marginally small. Therefore, if the Bills' RB's rush the ball 370 times next season (like last season) and your projections of 170 touches of those are going to Lynch that leaves at least 200 going to Thomas and/or other RB's. As I previously posted, Buffalo doesen't have anyone else on their roster that is worth giving significant touches to. Thomas who has been that spot duty starter over the last 3 seasons of his career includes rushing attempts of 122 times, 43 times, and 107 times. I think Thomas will be lucky to touch the ball 100 times this season.Buffalo is an ever improving team on offense. They have a young QB and WR that made significant strides last season. They have a young and talented RB in Lynch that will get plenty of work this up coming season. Lynch also gives the Bills a receiving threat out of the back field that they have not had in the last few years.My conservative projections for Lynch:275 rushing attempts for 1100 yards.35 receiving for 280 yards7 TD'sTotals: 1380 yards and 7 TD's.

 

[CalBear]

Marshawn Lynch is a very unusual runner. His style involves a very wide stance, and he doesn't juke defenders as much as freeze them. His moves are deceptive; he doesn't seem to be changing direction very quickly like a Reggie Bush, but he keeps defenders guessing about which way he's going, and often makes them miss by a wide margin once he commits. He's also strong, with great balance, and is extremely hard to bring down. He's a good pass catcher, out of the backfield or lined up as a wideout. In the long run, I will be shocked if he doesn't have a successful NFL career (and I didn't say that about JJ Arrington--as noted above, the two backs aren't at all comparable).

I see two things which might cause him trouble early on; he might have (like Reggie Bush did) a little too much tendency to try to make things happen when nothing is there, and his insistence on continuing to fight once he's stood up looks to me like it could lead to injuries or fumbles (though he didn't have significant problems with either of those at Cal).

The situation in Buffalo is good in one sense; he doesn't have any serious competition for the starting job. The other back in town, Anthony Thomas, averaged 3.5 yards per carry and won't wow anyone. The situation is bad in most other senses: no RB with more than 2 carries has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in Buffalo since 2003, and last I checked, **** Jauron was still the coach and JP Losman was still the QB. So I think we need to temper our enthusiasm for what the Buffalo running game might accomplish, and thus for Lynch's productivity. They did make some minor upgrades to the offensive line, so it might be better than last year.

I'm going to have Lynch equaling McGahee's YPC average from last year, based on improved line play offset by rookie jitters. I think he should easily get 280 carries, and the offense as a whole will be better than last year (incremental improvement in Losman and Evans) so he'll score more. Jauron doesn't have a history of using RBs as receivers, so I'm only going to give him a small bump over McGahee in that category.

280 carries, 1064 yards, 8 TD. 30 receptions, 230 yards, 1 TD. Good for approximately RB#15 by FBG scoring.

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm guessing about 800 yds rushing, another 200 receiving and a total of 7 TDs at best. When was the last time a highly touted RB from the University of California did anything? J.J.Arrington was supposed to be the super sleeper two years ago and lost his job immediately. The great numbers they put up in college are the product of the pathetic defenses they play in the Pac-10 and it shows when they actually run up against real athletes on the defensive side of the ball (USC not withstanding).

Marshawn Lynch outperformed Adrian Peterson against common opponents.Once again, anyone who is comparing Lynch to Arrington clearly hasn't watched any film of either of them.

True that Lynch did go for 20-88 against USC last year with a long run of 17 and a 4.4 ypc. Those are about the tops I would expect from him in the NFL. Not shabby but also not stellar. My question still stands about when was the last time a Cal RB did well in the NFL?

What's the point to this question? Nobody is claiming that Cal is historically a NFL factory. What does this have to do with how Lynch will do?If you really feel that it's a relevent question, then how about before LJ, when was the last time a Penn St. RB did well in the NFL? Penn St. has at least had a lot of players in general go to the NFL so there is more of a comparison point than there is for Lynch.

I'm glad you brought up your comparison of Penn St. and Cal. LJ has had one and a half great seasons because he had the benefit of running behind the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL for the last decade. That O-line made every RB who ran behind them look awesome. LJ will be a huge bust this year now that most of the line is gone meaning he will not look much different than any other Penn St. RB.

I can assure you the KC o-line of 2006 was not "the best run blocking offensive line the NFL for the last decade". As a matter of fact, it was terrible.

 

[H.K.]

There are some very interesting projections being thrown out on Lynch. One thing which popped out at me have been the reception totals I am seeing.

For the past four seasons, here are the leading receptions numbers for a Bills' RB:

2003 - 28

2004 - 22

2005 - 28

2006 - 22

Has Buffalo committed to passing to their RB's a lot more for 2007 or are people just making assumptions based on Lynch's skill set?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

There are some very interesting projections being thrown out on Lynch. One thing which popped out at me have been the reception totals I am seeing.For the past four seasons, here are the leading receptions numbers for a Bills' RB:2003 - 282004 - 222005 - 282006 - 22Has Buffalo committed to passing to their RB's a lot more for 2007 or are people just making assumptions based on Lynch's skill set?

I think that the running backs that they drafted are going to catch more passes. However, I think people are underestimating Dwayne Wright's ability to catch the ball. They look at his height/weight and combine numbers and assume that he is plodding with bad hands.

 

[Obie Wan]

There are some very interesting projections being thrown out on Lynch. One thing which popped out at me have been the reception totals I am seeing.For the past four seasons, here are the leading receptions numbers for a Bills' RB:2003 - 282004 - 222005 - 282006 - 22Has Buffalo committed to passing to their RB's a lot more for 2007 or are people just making assumptions based on Lynch's skill set?

gee- Acemaybe you've hit on the reason why Willis is no longer a Bill.An OC who in the past ran his offense thru Mrshall Faulk was hamstrung by the intelligent one with faulty hands from the U.Lynch will get a lot of looks in the passing game.

 

[H.K.]

There are some very interesting projections being thrown out on Lynch. One thing which popped out at me have been the reception totals I am seeing.For the past four seasons, here are the leading receptions numbers for a Bills' RB:2003 - 282004 - 222005 - 282006 - 22Has Buffalo committed to passing to their RB's a lot more for 2007 or are people just making assumptions based on Lynch's skill set?

I think that the running backs that they drafted are going to catch more passes. However, I think people are underestimating Dwayne Wright's ability to catch the ball. They look at his height/weight and combine numbers and assume that he is plodding with bad hands.

Buffalo was second to last in the league for targeting their RB's in 2006:62 targets 47 recepts 330 yards 0 TDs for all backs combined.They've been ranked 30th, 27th, 25th & 31st in the NFL for RB targets the past four seasons. Does anyone have anything concrete that says this team will change its style and throw to the RB more this year?

 

[Obie Wan]

There are some very interesting projections being thrown out on Lynch. One thing which popped out at me have been the reception totals I am seeing.For the past four seasons, here are the leading receptions numbers for a Bills' RB:2003 - 282004 - 222005 - 282006 - 22Has Buffalo committed to passing to their RB's a lot more for 2007 or are people just making assumptions based on Lynch's skill set?

I think that the running backs that they drafted are going to catch more passes. However, I think people are underestimating Dwayne Wright's ability to catch the ball. They look at his height/weight and combine numbers and assume that he is plodding with bad hands.

Wright is much more of a threat to steal touches from Lynch, especially in the red zone, than Atrain is.Atrain offers stabaility only until the rookies prove they are ready to go.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

There are some very interesting projections being thrown out on Lynch. One thing which popped out at me have been the reception totals I am seeing.For the past four seasons, here are the leading receptions numbers for a Bills' RB:2003 - 282004 - 222005 - 282006 - 22Has Buffalo committed to passing to their RB's a lot more for 2007 or are people just making assumptions based on Lynch's skill set?

I think that the running backs that they drafted are going to catch more passes. However, I think people are underestimating Dwayne Wright's ability to catch the ball. They look at his height/weight and combine numbers and assume that he is plodding with bad hands.

Buffalo was second to last in the league for targeting their RB's in 2006:62 targets 47 recepts 330 yards 0 TDs for all backs combined.They've been ranked 30th, 27th, 25th & 31st in the NFL for RB targets the past four seasons. Does anyone have anything concrete that says this team will change its style and throw to the RB more this year?

Clearly we no concrete evidence. I are guessing that things will change for the following reasons:1) Buffalo has not been good- hence they are not married to the idea of just reimplementing a struggling scheme.2) Coaches coach to their personnel. THey have not had a good pass catching back that justified being on the field in a the time span you listed.3) They drafted Lynch and Wright who caught 34 and 29 balls respectively. They were looking for backs that catch the ball. It is reasonable to consider that they did that intentionally.

 

[Dope]

There are some very interesting projections being thrown out on Lynch. One thing which popped out at me have been the reception totals I am seeing.For the past four seasons, here are the leading receptions numbers for a Bills' RB:2003 - 282004 - 222005 - 282006 - 22Has Buffalo committed to passing to their RB's a lot more for 2007 or are people just making assumptions based on Lynch's skill set?

I think that the running backs that they drafted are going to catch more passes. However, I think people are underestimating Dwayne Wright's ability to catch the ball. They look at his height/weight and combine numbers and assume that he is plodding with bad hands.

Buffalo was second to last in the league for targeting their RB's in 2006:62 targets 47 recepts 330 yards 0 TDs for all backs combined.They've been ranked 30th, 27th, 25th & 31st in the NFL for RB targets the past four seasons. Does anyone have anything concrete that says this team will change its style and throw to the RB more this year?

Clearly we no concrete evidence. I are guessing that things will change for the following reasons:1) Buffalo has not been good- hence they are not married to the idea of just reimplementing a struggling scheme.2) Coaches coach to their personnel. THey have not had a good pass catching back that justified being on the field in a the time span you listed.3) They drafted Lynch and Wright who caught 34 and 29 balls respectively. They were looking for backs that catch the ball. It is reasonable to consider that they did that intentionally.

I'm pretty sure that this was done intentionally. I don't remember where I read/watched it but I can clearly recall an interview with Marv Levy saying that he wanted to get back to the old days and have a Rb who was a dual running/catching threat ala Thurman Thomas. So they got him in Lynch. Let's see if he's the right guy. I don't usually do predictions, but I'll do one this time:I think Lynch (if in camp on time) will be the starter and main guy before October starts. I don't think Anthony Thomas will be a big factor. Dwayne Wright is the super deep sleeper here I think.Lynch = 225 carries for 895 yards and 6 TD's 40 recepetions for 375 yards and 3 TD'sTotal - 1270 yards and 9 TD's

 

[GroveDiesel]

There have been many comments this offseason from everyone involved with the Bills about how they want their RBs to be more involved in the passing game. When the Bills traded McGahee, Levy specifically said something about wanting a RB that would fit into their passing game better.

They then went and drafted two of the better pass catching RBs in the draft.

They've been lining Lynch out wide a decent amount during OTAs.

I don't think there's any question that they're going to involve the RBs in the passing game a lot more than in the past.

 

[nygiants56]

Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.

Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?

KC & SF were not in the top 10 in offense, yet Larry Johnson & Frank Gore seemed to do alright.

ok, first, KC had Gonzalez and one heck of a RB in LJ, and an o-line with a hall of famer on it.secondly, Norv Turner coached the SF offense. Check his record with ANY RB he's ever coached.dude could put Lawrence Phillips in the pro bowl, for Pete's sake..Buffalo doesn't have nearly the same offensive talent as KC, nor do they have an OC with a proven track record like Norv Turner. Buffalo is still very young at key positions on offenseI"m not saying Lynch can't be a good RB this season. The offensive philosophy of the Bills, PLUS their MUCH tougher division ( from a defensive perspective), tells me that it will be extremely hard for ANY Buffalo RB to take a trip to the Pro Bowl by finishing near the top of the NFL in rushing. NE's defense is all-world. Jets are up-n-coming. Miami's defense is very good..6 games against tough opponents doesn't bode well for ANY rb in the AFC East.who'd Addai run up against? lets see:houston, Jax, Tenn. wow..there's three lousy defenses for ya! 6 games.who'd Gore run up against:St Louis, Seattle, Az. yeah, like those are good defenses! 6 games. LJ ran against a weak Denver D ( traditionally not good against KC's run offense), lousy-stinkin' Raiders defense ( at least first half of 2006) , and the seemingly `susceptible-to-the-run` SD Chargers. 6 games.If Losman develops into a decent QB, then the running game should take form. But, if Losman takes a step backwards, and the ever-inconsistent Lee Evans doesn't find his groove( finally), this offense will be a middle of the road unit, at best. 200 carries. 840 yards. 4.2 per carry. 5 tds.20 catches, 120 yards..rookie RBs don't do anything special in their first season, for the most part..

 

[salmonstud]

Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.

Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?

KC & SF were not in the top 10 in offense, yet Larry Johnson & Frank Gore seemed to do alright.

ok, first, KC had Gonzalez and one heck of a RB in LJ, and an o-line with a hall of famer on it.secondly, Norv Turner coached the SF offense. Check his record with ANY RB he's ever coached.dude could put Lawrence Phillips in the pro bowl, for Pete's sake..Buffalo doesn't have nearly the same offensive talent as KC, nor do they have an OC with a proven track record like Norv Turner. Buffalo is still very young at key positions on offenseI"m not saying Lynch can't be a good RB this season. The offensive philosophy of the Bills, PLUS their MUCH tougher division ( from a defensive perspective), tells me that it will be extremely hard for ANY Buffalo RB to take a trip to the Pro Bowl by finishing near the top of the NFL in rushing. NE's defense is all-world. Jets are up-n-coming. Miami's defense is very good..6 games against tough opponents doesn't bode well for ANY rb in the AFC East.who'd Addai run up against? lets see:houston, Jax, Tenn. wow..there's three lousy defenses for ya! 6 games.who'd Gore run up against:St Louis, Seattle, Az. yeah, like those are good defenses! 6 games. LJ ran against a weak Denver D ( traditionally not good against KC's run offense), lousy-stinkin' Raiders defense ( at least first half of 2006) , and the seemingly `susceptible-to-the-run` SD Chargers. 6 games.If Losman develops into a decent QB, then the running game should take form. But, if Losman takes a step backwards, and the ever-inconsistent Lee Evans doesn't find his groove( finally), this offense will be a middle of the road unit, at best. 200 carries. 840 yards. 4.2 per carry. 5 tds.20 catches, 120 yards..rookie RBs don't do anything special in their first season, for the most part..

Care to take a 2 week signature Bet? In FBG's scoring....your projects give Lynch 126 fantasy points. I believe he will score a minimum of 140 fantasy points this season.If I win the bet....your signature must say: Salmonstud knows more than I do about rookie running backs. He is very mucher smarter than me.

 

[CalBear]

rookie RBs don't do anything special in their first season, for the most part..

Since 1990, there have been 14 rookie RB seasons with more than 200 fantasy points--that's almost one per year, and that's significant value. 200 fantasy points is around the top-10 border. It's definitely worth figuring out which rookie RB will perform the best.

 

[EBF]

rookie RBs don't do anything special in their first season, for the most part..

Since 1990, there have been 14 rookie RB seasons with more than 200 fantasy points--that's almost one per year, and that's significant value. 200 fantasy points is around the top-10 border. It's definitely worth figuring out which rookie RB will perform the best.

Agreed. RB is probably the easiest position to learn. Anyone who has the physical and mental skills needed to excel can step in and be immediately productive. I think Peterson is a more impressive talent than Lynch, but Marshawn has a very real chance of winning Rookie of the Year. He should start from day one and get the lion's share of the carries. There's always an element of risk with rookies, but you could do a lot worse than Lynch as your RB2. The Bills lack the supporting cast necessary to give him an Edgerrin James style rookie year, but he could sneak into the top ten in PPR.

 

[wannabee]

rookie RBs don't do anything special in their first season, for the most part..

Since 1990, there have been 14 rookie RB seasons with more than 200 fantasy points--that's almost one per year, and that's significant value. 200 fantasy points is around the top-10 border. It's definitely worth figuring out which rookie RB will perform the best.

Agreed. RB is probably the easiest position to learn. Anyone who has the physical and mental skills needed to excel can step in and be immediately productive. I think Peterson is a more impressive talent than Lynch, but Marshawn has a very real chance of winning Rookie of the Year. He should start from day one and get the lion's share of the carries. There's always an element of risk with rookies, but you could do a lot worse than Lynch as your RB2.

The Bills lack the supporting cast necessary to give him an Edgerrin James style rookie year, but he could sneak into the top ten in PPR.

You think that Lynch can be a top 10 RB in PPR in Buffalo when Willis was only RB26 last year? So, you think that Lynch is THAT MUCH better than McGahee??

 

[CalBear]

You think that Lynch can be a top 10 RB in PPR in Buffalo when Willis was only RB26 last year? So, you think that Lynch is THAT MUCH better than McGahee??

McGahee was only 39 points away from RB#10, and he missed two games and most of a third--against, by the way, two of the worst run defenses in the league. Thomas had over 100 yards both games, plus a TD. So it's not that far-fetched.

 

[wannabee]

You think that Lynch can be a top 10 RB in PPR in Buffalo when Willis was only RB26 last year? So, you think that Lynch is THAT MUCH better than McGahee??

McGahee was only 39 points away from RB#10, and he missed two games and most of a third--against, by the way, two of the worst run defenses in the league. Thomas had over 100 yards both games, plus a TD. So it's not that far-fetched.

In PPR, which is what EBF referenced, Mcgahee was RB26 in ppg and total points. In PPR leagues, the difference between Willis and RB10 was over 70 points. In PPR, the points per game difference was 4.65 points per game. You might re-check your numbers above.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

rookie RBs don't do anything special in their first season, for the most part..

Since 1990, there have been 14 rookie RB seasons with more than 200 fantasy points--that's almost one per year, and that's significant value. 200 fantasy points is around the top-10 border. It's definitely worth figuring out which rookie RB will perform the best.

Agreed. RB is probably the easiest position to learn. Anyone who has the physical and mental skills needed to excel can step in and be immediately productive. I think Peterson is a more impressive talent than Lynch, but Marshawn has a very real chance of winning Rookie of the Year. He should start from day one and get the lion's share of the carries. There's always an element of risk with rookies, but you could do a lot worse than Lynch as your RB2.

The Bills lack the supporting cast necessary to give him an Edgerrin James style rookie year, but he could sneak into the top ten in PPR.

You think that Lynch can be a top 10 RB in PPR in Buffalo when Willis was only RB26 last year? So, you think that Lynch is THAT MUCH better than McGahee??

Simply put, Willis sucked last year in PPR. He had less than 1000 rushing yards, less than 20 catches, less than 1150 total yards and only 6 total tds. Lynch doesn't have to do that much to outperform that.

 

[wannabee]

rookie RBs don't do anything special in their first season, for the most part..

Since 1990, there have been 14 rookie RB seasons with more than 200 fantasy points--that's almost one per year, and that's significant value. 200 fantasy points is around the top-10 border. It's definitely worth figuring out which rookie RB will perform the best.

Agreed. RB is probably the easiest position to learn. Anyone who has the physical and mental skills needed to excel can step in and be immediately productive. I think Peterson is a more impressive talent than Lynch, but Marshawn has a very real chance of winning Rookie of the Year. He should start from day one and get the lion's share of the carries. There's always an element of risk with rookies, but you could do a lot worse than Lynch as your RB2.

The Bills lack the supporting cast necessary to give him an Edgerrin James style rookie year, but he could sneak into the top ten in PPR.

You think that Lynch can be a top 10 RB in PPR in Buffalo when Willis was only RB26 last year? So, you think that Lynch is THAT MUCH better than McGahee??

Simply put, Willis sucked last year in PPR. He had less than 1000 rushing yards, less than 20 catches, less than 1150 total yards and only 6 total tds. Lynch doesn't have to do that much to outperform that.

How many rookie RBs in last 5 years do you think have finished in the top 10? Two. Drew and Portis. Do you think Lynch will have that good of season? That is asking a bit too much.