Player Spotlight: Matt Forte (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Matt Forte Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Matt Forte basically will be the Bears #1 RB by default this year. He has good all around skills but does not really jump out in any particular area. I think he will be eased into the full time role, averaging around 12-15 carries the first few weeks and gaining more as the season goes on. I think he will be a weak RB2 strong RB3 type.

Stats (assuming no free agent pickup and he wins the starting job):

256 - 998 - 5 td Rush 20 - 155 - 1 Rec

 

[Tybeeman]

Forte will be the unquestioned # RB for the Bears in 2008. The coaching staff loves the kid, and all think he'll be a 3 down back. With that said, I believe Adrian Peterson will get some touches, but the bulk will go to Forte.

Projections

Rushing: 261/1083/8

Receiving: 27/188/1

My $0.02

 

[Burning Sensation]

Decent talent, good situation. I could see anything from a 300 yards season to a 1500 yard season. Not much competition for carries, so if he even plays OK, he should end up near 1000 yards.

250 carries, 975 yards, 6 TD's

20 catches, 150 yards, 0 TD's

 

[J-Rock]

I think Forte has a great shot at being this years top rookie RB. You know Chicago wants to run the football and from what I've seen of Forte he has the size and skill set to be an every down back. He's got great vision and acceleration to find and get through the hole and I love how he finishes runs. He may not have 4.3 speed but he is fast enough to be effective. Forte is strong

Ru: 260/ 1100 8TD

Re: 30/ 200 0TD.

 

[TheFanatic]

Forte will be the unquestioned # RB for the Bears in 2008. The coaching staff loves the kid, and all think he'll be a 3 down back. With that said, I believe Adrian Peterson will get some touches, but the bulk will go to Forte. ProjectionsRushing: 261/1083/8Receiving: 27/188/1My $0.02

Those are pretty good numbers considering it would put him tied for 8th last year at RB. I do believe he will be the #1 guy there, but not sure that O (and O-Line) can put out a top 10 rookie RB.

 

[ookook]

I think I see more of RBBC shaping up than most with Peterson getting some load.

Projections

Rushing: 181/748/5

Receiving: 28/178/1

 

[The Man with the Plan]

The Bears have a bad quarterback, bad wide receivers, a bad offensive line and even the defense isn't what it was in the past. He may be a talented player I don't know but the team around him is so bad that I don't think it matters much how many touches he'll get as a rookie.

 

[shadyridr]

The Bears have a bad quarterback, bad wide receivers, a bad offensive line and even the defense isn't what it was in the past. He may be a talented player I don't know but the team around him is so bad that I don't think it matters much how many touches he'll get as a rookie.

Even if he gets the bulk of the carries I believe the projections in this thread so far are a bit too high.

 

[shadyridr]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

 

[cstu]

The Bears have a bad quarterback, bad wide receivers, a bad offensive line and even the defense isn't what it was in the past. He may be a talented player I don't know but the team around him is so bad that I don't think it matters much how many touches he'll get as a rookie.

RB's have been known to produce on bad teams and the Bears are going to have to run the ball because they lack a good passing game. I don't expect Forte to average over 4 YPC but he could get the ball 300 times.

 

[Mordraken]

Nobody's more interested in this than me (well, maybe the Bears organization is) since I traded two valuable rights in my fantasy league to get a chance to draft him (and I landed him).

But, I need to be realistic. In 2007, the bears put up 1,290 yards (8) rushing and 693 (0) receiving. The bright spot there is the receiving yards, but the main threat there (Adrian Peterson) is still on the team.

Assuming Forte gets the starting job, I'd guess he'll get 3.5 ypc (a slight improvement over the 2007 Bears) and be in on a little under 2/3rd of the rushing plays, but that AP will be used more in the passing game due to his experience.

Projections:

230-800 yards

6 TDs

35 - 250 rec

1 TD

There's upside to that if the Bears rushing offense improves, but huge downside as well if AP ends up the primary carrier.

 

[buck naked]

I think every one of us is completely guessing about Forte at this point.

We really do not know whether he is a talented NFL back, whether he will claim the job from the first game on, whether the Bears OL will completely blow or be decent, whether Peterson will gets 50% or 5 % of the carries, or whether the Bears will have any passing game to offset possible 8 man fronts. There are way too many variables at this point.

Thus, the same is true for any projections for Forte. But seeing how the Bears really have little alternative at RB at this point, I'd guess 1100 yards rushing, 33 rec. for 279 yards, and 7 tds.

 

[Englishteacher]

Paging Kevin Jones. Kevin Jones to the white courtesy phone please.

 

[J-Rock]

A lot of concern about Peterson eating into Forte's touches

Peterson will be 29 when the season starts. He has been with the team for 6 seasons already and has never seen any significant action until this past season. In fact he had more carries in 2007 (150) than in the 5 previous seasons combined. He didn't really prove anything with the opportunity last season (3.4ypc, 3td 3fum) to make me think he has any legitimate chance of carrying the load in 2008 (barring injury).

The Bears invested a 2nd rounder on Forte while Peterson was a 6th back in 2002.

I suppose we may see some of Peterson early in the season and probably in 3rd down passing situations but I'm really not expecting him to get too many carries in 2008. Certainly not enough to drive Forte's value down significantly.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

 

[mlball77]

I'm a Bears homer... so take this for what it is worth.

1) The o-line is not very good, but should be better than last year. The addition of 1st rd pick, Williams, along with improved health in general will have a positive impact on the rushing game.

2) I truly feel the Bears d will be a lot better this year. Again, health issues were a huge problem last year. While maybe not an elite unit, I think the Bears D will be very tough in 2008.

3) The QB play and passing game will most likely struggle badly. No shocker here.

In my view, when these three things are combined, I think the Bears really will try to grind out some games... letting their d win them (hopefully). I think this means plenty of work for Forte & Peterson.

Att: 210

Rush Yds: 840

Rush TDs: 6

Recs: 25

Rec Yds: 180

Rec TDs: 0

 

[Chairshot]

History tells us that Matt Forte's chances of being a legit RB1 are slim.

Since the 2000 season there have been well over 100 RBs that have had 190+ point seasons, which would make them top 8-10 type backs.

Only 7 of those seasons were by rookies.

As mentioned before, the Bear's O line, QB and WRs are all questionable, at best (more realistically you would probably say they are some of the worst in the league), which leads me to believe that we are probably talking a less then 4 yards per carry situation. Plus, they could easily be playing from behind a lot, so it seems really possible to me that they will have to pass more then they would like in the second half of games to try and play catch up.

Adrian Peterson, while not a great running back, was clearly the 3rd down and passing down back for the Bears last year and did really well. Peterson being seventh in the league in RB targets and fifth in the league in RB receptions leads me to believe that Peterson will stay the passing down back, making Forte will be a 2 down back, limiting his touches. Since Forte wasn't really known for his pass catching skills in college, I'm thinking that it's unlikely that Forte steals snaps in those situations from Peterson.

Forte could break out, sure. Rookies having great seasons certainly isn't unheard of. But to me, talk of a 1100 yard, 30 catch season seems like the very high ceiling of what might happen. It seems much more likely that he will perform as a boarder line RB2 or a solid RB3 then be a top 10-12 fantasy back.

I'm thinking:

200 carries

750 rushing yards

3 rushing TDs

15 catches

140 receiving yards

1 receiving TD

 

[rzrback77]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

and just after slamming everyone's projections as too high???

 

[rzrback77]

I am assuming that no free agent RB comes to the Bears and that they go into the season with only Peterson and Forte. I think that Forte will be given every opportunity to carry as much of the load as he can because Peterson is 29 and teh Bears will likely be looking to draft another RB next year and need to know whether it will be looking for a top guy or a back-up.

I don't really know the skills that Forte carries, but as a second rounder, he should be able to match last year's effectiveness. The yardage matches Shady, but it takes a lot more carries.

Matt Forte 240 carries 864 yards 3.6 ypc and 25 receptions for 180 yards 7.2 ypc and 5 total TDs

 

[Tanner9919]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

possibly the worst team in the NFL this season...a Witches Brew: an extremely overrated defense, and a bunch of no-names on offense, and a lame-duck coaching staff that's sure to be fired at season's end when they fail to make the post season... While the Packers and Vikings are on the rise, the Bears are rapidly sinking..IF the defense can't stop opponents and the offense continues to struggle as much it did last season, Forte doesn't stand a chance to break 1,000 yards..150/585/3, 3.9 per carry..

 

[Chachi]

260/910/5 (3.5 avg) 18 catches/140/0

I don't see him putting up good numbers even though I see alot of carries. The Bears O-line is probaly the worst run blocking O-line in the game, they drafted a rookie OL Williams and I think that will be a good pick but won't help this season, it may even hurt this season, he won't step in like Joe Thomas and be an improvement right off the bat. Losing Berrian and Mushin, while adding Booker/Brandon Lloyd makes the Bears passing game even worse, at least Berrian could stretch the field, this offense is going to be last in the league or at least very close to it. I see Forte being Benson Jr. in the NFL as far as on the field, I'm not one who thinks he has what it takes to be an NFL RB.

 

[Your Mom]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

possibly the worst team in the NFL this season...a Witches Brew: an extremely overrated defense, and a bunch of no-names on offense, and a lame-duck coaching staff that's sure to be fired at season's end when they fail to make the post season... While the Packers and Vikings are on the rise, the Bears are rapidly sinking..IF the defense can't stop opponents and the offense continues to struggle as much it did last season, Forte doesn't stand a chance to break 1,000 yards..150/585/3, 3.9 per carry..

Lame duck coaching staff? Lovie and his staff isn't going anywhere. Not a chance.I think Forte will put up the yards, but Peterson will be the goal line back. 800- 1000yds with 3tds. 150rec. 1td.

 

[Aaronstory]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

possibly the worst team in the NFL this season...

a Witches Brew: an extremely overrated defense, and a bunch of no-names on offense, and a lame-duck coaching staff that's sure to be fired at season's end when they fail to make the post season... While the Packers and Vikings are on the rise, the Bears are rapidly sinking..IF the defense can't stop opponents and the offense continues to struggle as much it did last season, Forte doesn't stand a chance to break 1,000 yards..

150/585/3, 3.9 per carry..

Hardly. Lovie just signed an extension last off-season.

 

[shadyridr]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

Honestly I really dont. But I dont know much about him so I was kind of giving him the benefit of the doubt in my projections. In other words if he gets more carries I wouldve assumed a lower YPC but who the heck knows how many carries he will get.

 

[shadyridr]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

and just after slamming everyone's projections as too high???

slamming?

 

[The Jacket]

200 carries, 750 yards, 4 TD

15 catches, 120 yards, 0 TD

 

[cstu]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

Honestly I really dont. But I dont know much about him so I was kind of giving him the benefit of the doubt in my projections. In other words if he gets more carries I wouldve assumed a lower YPC but who the heck knows how many carries he will get.

You chose very specific numbers so you should also be specific on his YPC. If you think he's going to have 864 yards you have to show how he's going to get that. Sure it's all pretty much guesswork, but the way you're doing it is no better than pulling numbers out of a hat.

 

[shadyridr]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

Honestly I really dont. But I dont know much about him so I was kind of giving him the benefit of the doubt in my projections. In other words if he gets more carries I wouldve assumed a lower YPC but who the heck knows how many carries he will get.

You chose very specific numbers so you should also be specific on his YPC. If you think he's going to have 864 yards you have to show how he's going to get that. Sure it's all pretty much guesswork, but the way you're doing it is no better than pulling numbers out of a hat.

Thats basically what this spotlight is gonna look like for the most part.

 

[5Rings]

The Bears have a bad quarterback, bad wide receivers, a bad offensive line and even the defense isn't what it was in the past. He may be a talented player I don't know but the team around him is so bad that I don't think it matters much how many touches he'll get as a rookie.

288-980-4td18-110-0td

 

[geoff8695]

Smith: Bears break camp with 'core back in place'

“My glass is always, of course, full,” Smith said. “We like this team. I liked last year’s team. ... But for the most part we have our core back in place this year and I think this team we’ve seen here the last couple days can compete with anyone.”

The Bears are prepared to go with rookie Matt Forte and the running backs on their roster, despite the decision to cut starter Cedric Benson following two offseason alcohol-related arrests. It’s unlikely the Bears will be in the market for a free agent running back, even with veterans like Shaun Alexander and Ron Dayne seeking jobs.

“We don’t have any plans to do that,” Smith said. “From Matt to Adrian Peterson to Garrett Wolfe, to P.J. Pope, Matt Lawrence, we like all of our players and those are the ones that we’re going with.”

If Lovie Smith is to be believed, then the Bears are going to go into this season with only the current RBs on the Bears roster (Forte, Peterson, Wolfe). Clearly that would mean Forte is the #1 option, so why are there several posts here only forecasting 100-200 carries? I would think 250-300 carries would be more likely. Am I way off base?

 

[mlball77]

If Lovie Smith is to be believed, then the Bears are going to go into this season with only the current RBs on the Bears roster (Forte, Peterson, Wolfe). Clearly that would mean Forte is the #1 option, so why are there several posts here only forecasting 100-200 carries? I would think 250-300 carries would be more likely. Am I way off base?

Forte will get more carries and overall touches, but I think Peterson will see a bit more action than many seem to be expecting. I think it will be a committe of sorts in Chicago, at least in 2008 and particularly early on in the season.Just my view.

 

[geoff8695]

If Lovie Smith is to be believed, then the Bears are going to go into this season with only the current RBs on the Bears roster (Forte, Peterson, Wolfe). Clearly that would mean Forte is the #1 option, so why are there several posts here only forecasting 100-200 carries? I would think 250-300 carries would be more likely. Am I way off base?

Forte will get more carries and overall touches, but I think Peterson will see a bit more action than many seem to be expecting. I think it will be a committe of sorts in Chicago, at least in 2008 and particularly early on in the season.Just my view.

Although I could see the 29 yr. old 3rd down back, Peterson, taking some carries away early in the season until Forte settles into the role, I seriously doubt that a full blown RBBC will develop. Peterson just doesn't have featured RB ability, and his career stats as well as his brief 5 game stint as the starter in 2007 bear this out. A closer look at last year's stats show that 116 of Peterson's 151 carries came during the last 6 games of 2007 directly as a result of Benson's injury. His 151 carries last year were also more rushing attempts than his prior five years combined! Finally, Peterson's performance over this stretch was hardly inspiring (3.2YPC and 1 TD). Combine that with the fact that the Bears appear to be ignoring all of the bargain basement free agent RBs who have experience as feature backs in the NFL, and I would say that all signs indicate they are prepared to hand the full time duties over to the rookie, Matt Forte. Barring injury, or the addition of a free agent with prior experience as a feature back in the NFL, I just can't envision a scenario where Forte receives less than 280 carries in 2008.I'll project:290 carries 1100yds 7 TD30 receptions 200yds 1 TD

 

[shadyridr]

Smith: Bears break camp with 'core back in place'

“My glass is always, of course, full,” Smith said. “We like this team. I liked last year’s team. ... But for the most part we have our core back in place this year and I think this team we’ve seen here the last couple days can compete with anyone.”

The Bears are prepared to go with rookie Matt Forte and the running backs on their roster, despite the decision to cut starter Cedric Benson following two offseason alcohol-related arrests. It’s unlikely the Bears will be in the market for a free agent running back, even with veterans like Shaun Alexander and Ron Dayne seeking jobs.

“We don’t have any plans to do that,” Smith said. “From Matt to Adrian Peterson to Garrett Wolfe, to P.J. Pope, Matt Lawrence, we like all of our players and those are the ones that we’re going with.”

If Lovie Smith is to be believed, then the Bears are going to go into this season with only the current RBs on the Bears roster (Forte, Peterson, Wolfe). Clearly that would mean Forte is the #1 option, so why are there several posts here only forecasting 100-200 carries? I would think 250-300 carries would be more likely. Am I way off base?

 

[geoff8695]

Smith: Bears break camp with 'core back in place'

“My glass is always, of course, full,” Smith said. “We like this team. I liked last year’s team. ... But for the most part we have our core back in place this year and I think this team we’ve seen here the last couple days can compete with anyone.”

The Bears are prepared to go with rookie Matt Forte and the running backs on their roster, despite the decision to cut starter Cedric Benson following two offseason alcohol-related arrests. It’s unlikely the Bears will be in the market for a free agent running back, even with veterans like Shaun Alexander and Ron Dayne seeking jobs.

“We don’t have any plans to do that,” Smith said. “From Matt to Adrian Peterson to Garrett Wolfe, to P.J. Pope, Matt Lawrence, we like all of our players and those are the ones that we’re going with.”

If Lovie Smith is to be believed, then the Bears are going to go into this season with only the current RBs on the Bears roster (Forte, Peterson, Wolfe). Clearly that would mean Forte is the #1 option, so why are there several posts here only forecasting 100-200 carries? I would think 250-300 carries would be more likely. Am I way off base?

Are you really going to infer that the 29 yr. old journeyman who's career high is 151 carries is going to be the #1 option?

 

[DenverBroncos]

MATT FORTE = BRANDON JACKSON

Is this not the most identical scenario that we've already seen. Exactly 1 year ago everyone was all over Brandon Jackson's nutz and he was probably rookie pick 1.4 just like Forte will be. DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE. You can find Brandon Jackson on your WW right about now.

People are predicting way too much fromForte. Some times just being in the right place doesn't matter, i.e. Brandon Jackson. Forte was the 6th RB taken which tells you that he likely isn't that good.

 

[geoff8695]

MATT FORTE = BRANDON JACKSONIs this not the most identical scenario that we've already seen. Exactly 1 year ago everyone was all over Brandon Jackson's nutz and he was probably rookie pick 1.4 just like Forte will be. DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE. You can find Brandon Jackson on your WW right about now. People are predicting way too much fromForte. Some times just being in the right place doesn't matter, i.e. Brandon Jackson. Forte was the 6th RB taken which tells you that he likely isn't that good.

Hmmmm... Something doesn't fit in your little Forte = Brandon Jackson equation.

Bears OC Ron Turner: "I love Matt Forte," Ron Turner said Sunday during a break at the Bears Expo. "He will definitely be an every-down back. He's got the size, he's got the hands. He's smooth as an athlete, very smooth. After nine practices, I'm not afraid to call anything in the offense with him. He's made a couple of mental mistakes, but not very many. He's handling it very well."

Well the Bears coaches seem to be indicating that Forte is going to be their "every-down" RB and that they aren't even looking at any free agents, so try not to be too offended when I place slightly more stock in their assessments of how Forte will be used this season, rather than yours. Besides, 'the other' Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe are only situational players, so if you know something that even the Bears' coaches don't know then please enlighten us on where Chicago's version of Ryan Grant is going to come from, oh wise one...

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

MATT FORTE = BRANDON JACKSON

Is this not the most identical scenario that we've already seen. Exactly 1 year ago everyone was all over Brandon Jackson's nutz and he was probably rookie pick 1.4 just like Forte will be. DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE. You can find Brandon Jackson on your WW right about now.

People are predicting way too much fromForte. Some times just being in the right place doesn't matter, i.e. Brandon Jackson. Forte was the 6th RB taken which tells you that he likely isn't that good.

Hmmmm... Something doesn't fit in your little Forte = Brandon Jackson equation.

Bears OC Ron Turner: "I love Matt Forte," Ron Turner said Sunday during a break at the Bears Expo. "He will definitely be an every-down back. He's got the size, he's got the hands. He's smooth as an athlete, very smooth. After nine practices, I'm not afraid to call anything in the offense with him. He's made a couple of mental mistakes, but not very many. He's handling it very well."

Well the Bears coaches seem to be indicating that Forte is going to be their "every-down" RB and that they aren't even looking at any free agents, so try not to be too offended when I place slightly more stock in their assessments of how Forte will be used this season, rather than yours. Besides, 'the other' Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe are only situational players, so if you know something that even the Bears' coaches don't know then please enlighten us on where Chicago's version of Ryan Grant is going to come from, oh wise one...

I just skimmed through this thread, but seriously rb's do come out of no where in different places/situations every single year. Obvisously you have mentioned Grant from last season but you would have been hard pressed guessing that E. Graham, D. Ward, J. Fargas, K. Watson, S. Morris, A. Stecker would have had fantasy impact at this exact time last year. In fact at this exact same time last year if you would have mentioned such a thing I am sure someone would have used a roll your eye emoticon at you . So to just dismiss that the Bears don't have anyone else on their roster who will produce is very premature to say the least. I happen to like Forte but who knows what the Bears will enter the season with at RB and perhaps a dark horse other then Forte could emerge. Obviously I think Forte will enter the season as the number 1 guy, but injuries, bad play, and other factors do happen and its never a bad thing rostering a could be guy if you have space. Also an interesting stat to take note of is A. Peterson (Bears) over the last 6 weeks of last season finished as RB 11. Not just one good week that is 6 solid weeks.

 

[geoff8695]

I just skimmed through this thread, but seriously rb's do come out of no where in different places/situations every single year. Obvisously you have mentioned Grant from last season but you would have been hard pressed guessing that E. Graham, D. Ward, J. Fargas, K. Watson, S. Morris, A. Stecker would have had fantasy impact at this exact time last year. In fact at this exact same time last year if you would have mentioned such a thing I am sure someone would have used a roll your eye emoticon at you . So to just dismiss that the Bears don't have anyone else on their roster who will produce is very premature to say the least. I happen to like Forte but who knows what the Bears will enter the season with at RB and perhaps a dark horse other then Forte could emerge. Obviously I think Forte will enter the season as the number 1 guy, but injuries, bad play, and other factors do happen and its never a bad thing rostering a could be guy if you have space. Also an interesting stat to take note of is A. Peterson (Bears) over the last 6 weeks of last season finished as RB 11. Not just one good week that is 6 solid weeks.

I don't question that injuries and/or bad play happen and that someone can come out of nowhere and emerge. However, it's just plain ignorant to come into this thread which is supposed to be about projecting what Forte will be capable of this year and just posting some nonsense about how he sucks because he was drafted in the 2nd round instead of the 1st and that Forte = Brandon Jackson without backing it up with any analysis. That's what brought out my sarcasm and eyeroll emoticon.Certainly anything could happen but right now we have to work with the information at hand, and what we know NOW is that the Bears are committed to entering the season with 3 RBs rostered and 2 of those 3 RBs are merely situational backs (Peterson and Wolfe). The next thing we have to factor in is what is the Bears offense going to be capable of producing and you noted that over the final 6 weeks of the season the Bears offense relied heavily enough on Peterson to make him fantasy worthy. I also mentioned this same six game stretch in a previous post and that Peterson accumulated 116 carries at 3.1 YPC with 1 TD during that time frame. What I believe we should be taking from this is that the Bears offense is going to continue to lean on the running game, and then combine that with the fact that the coaches are talking about Forte as the #1 this year. Clearly Peterson was nothing more than 3 yards and a cloud of dust, so imagine what a credible NFL workhorse RB could do given that same workload, even on a crappy offense. Don't you think such a back could improve on Peterson's numbers from last year? I sure do...

 

[geoff8695]

I understand that the Bears offense isn't going to strike fear into opposing defenses, and I understand that Forte is only a rookie.

So what?

The Bears offense is still a good situation for a workhorse back, because they don't use a RBBC and they rely very heavily upon a ball control offense committed to running the football. This shouldn't be a 'revelation' or anything, because there have been plenty of piss poor Bears offenses over the last 40+ years that have relied upon a good defense and a strong running game. As a lifelong Bears fan I can tell you that this is really nothing out of the ordinary in Chicago. While the Bears may be a mediocre team this year and the offense on the whole might be one of the worst in the NFL, it still may be more than capable of producing a decent fantasy performance at the RB position. After all, it's quite possible that the RB position may end up being the best weapon that the Bears offense possesses in 2008.

Now I also understand that not everyone is going to trust the expert's opinions that Forte is a well rounded NFL RB. Certainly it’s possible that Forte could suck, so I’m not claiming to be an expert on all things about Matt Forte here. In fact when it comes to Forte, I'll be the first to admit that I don't regularly watch college football and that most of the film I've seen on him has been of the Youtube variety. That’s exactly why I have to lean very heavily on NFL scouts, draft experts, and shark pool type discussions during the offseason, particularly when it comes to assessing rookie talent prior to my dynasty league's rookie draft.

All that being said, the research that I've done and the expert opinions that I trust most all point towards Forte being a workhorse RB with the skill set and the size to play at the NFL level. That appears to be why the Bears drafted him and why they were willing to cut Benson loose, and why they are also unwilling to bring in any free agent competition despite a surplus currently available on the open market. Everything the Bears have done to this point and continue to do even now is consistent with this view of Forte being an NFL ready workhorse RB, even if he doesn't have the elite talents of previous upper tier RBs like LT2, ADP, or LJ.

Just for the record I disagree with the Bears’ approach. I am impressed with Forte’s college highlights, but if it were up to me I would want a proven veteran like Kevin Jones or Lamont Jordan on this roster in case the rookie isn’t up to the task, or suffers an injury, or to go with a RBBC rather than putting all my eggs in the Forte basket. Nevertheless, I must forecast Forte as the #1 RB on this team based on the coaches own words and the lack of any other RB on the roster with prior experience as a feature back in the NFL. That means Forte is in a perfect situation for putting up some solid stats, and unless the Bears bring in a free agent or Forte is injured, then I will stand by my earlier prediction of 1100yds rushing with 7 TDs and 30 receptions for 200yds with 1 TD.

 

[KellysHeroes]

MATT FORTE = BRANDON JACKSONIs this not the most identical scenario that we've already seen. Exactly 1 year ago everyone was all over Brandon Jackson's nutz and he was probably rookie pick 1.4 just like Forte will be. DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE. You can find Brandon Jackson on your WW right about now. People are predicting way too much fromForte. Some times just being in the right place doesn't matter, i.e. Brandon Jackson. Forte was the 6th RB taken which tells you that he likely isn't that good.

The O-Line is just not that good... you'll be able to trade for Forte cheaply by mid-season.Kid will barely get 800 yds

 

[geoff8695]

MATT FORTE = BRANDON JACKSONIs this not the most identical scenario that we've already seen. Exactly 1 year ago everyone was all over Brandon Jackson's nutz and he was probably rookie pick 1.4 just like Forte will be. DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE. You can find Brandon Jackson on your WW right about now. People are predicting way too much fromForte. Some times just being in the right place doesn't matter, i.e. Brandon Jackson. Forte was the 6th RB taken which tells you that he likely isn't that good.

The O-Line is just not that good... you'll be able to trade for Forte cheaply by mid-season.Kid will barely get 800 yds

As was previously stated:1. Peterson managed to accumulate stats over the last 6 games when Benson was out with injury.2. Peterson is not a legit feature back and during that stretch only had 1 TD and a 3.2 YPC.3. The experts and Bears both say that Forte is a legit NFL caliber feature back.4. The Bears offense will continue to rely on the running game and have shown no signs of RBBC now or in the past.5. The Bears have stated with both their words and with their actions that Forte will be given every opportunity to be the #1 RB.So you apparently are saying either:1. Forte will be injured2. The experts and the Bears are wrong and Forte is much worse than advertised.3. The Bears will suddenly start using RBBC which hasn't been this team's M.O (even though when they drafted Benson in the top 5 overall in the draft a few years ago - they still continued to give Thomas Jones the #1 featured role).4. The Bears are going to change their mind and bring in a free agent to take the primary role or become a RBBC.5. That Forte will average less than 3 YPC. or 6. That you agree with the post that you quoted saying that Forte = Brandon Jackson and that Ryan Grant types just happen to grow on trees in the midwest and that the Bears are sure to find one despite their insistence on going into the season with the RBs currently rostered...Do you have some other reason that I haven't listed on why you think Forte will be lucky to get 800 yds? If not you're going to have to give a little further analysis before I will even consider buying into your logic.

 

[KellysHeroes]

The O-Line is just not that good... you'll be able to trade for Forte cheaply by mid-season.

Kid will barely get 800 yds

As was previously stated:1. Peterson managed to accumulate stats over the last 6 games when Benson was out with injury.

2. Peterson is not a legit feature back and during that stretch only had 1 TD and a 3.2 YPC.

So Peterson accumulated good stats; but yet had a 3.2 YPC. How does that work?

3. The experts and Bears both say that Forte is a legit NFL caliber feature back.

I need to see the kid in a game 1st

4. The Bears offense will continue to rely on the running game and have shown no signs of RBBC now or in the past.

That will be hard to do when u have many 3rd and longs.. and I see a lot of 3rd and longs this yr. I mentioned nothing of Peterson... but he might overtake 3rd DWN duties in the season

5. The Bears have stated with both their words and with their actions that Forte will be given every opportunity to be the #1 RB.

Hey, my problem w/ Forte isn't w/ the player... he just in a terrible spot.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

192 att, 864 yds, 6td, 16 rec, 112 yds, 0 td

How do you see him averaging 4.4 yds per carry on a team with a horrible QB, limited options at WR and a bad O-line?

Honestly I really dont. But I dont know much about him so I was kind of giving him the benefit of the doubt in my projections. In other words if he gets more carries I wouldve assumed a lower YPC but who the heck knows how many carries he will get.

You chose very specific numbers so you should also be specific on his YPC. If you think he's going to have 864 yards you have to show how he's going to get that. Sure it's all pretty much guesswork, but the way you're doing it is no better than pulling numbers out of a hat.

Thats basically what this spotlight is gonna look like for the most part.

Really? I'd like to think most FBGs who post in here will have some factual basis for their projections. For example, you can look at ypc for Chicago RBs over the past few seasons, compare 4.4 ypc to the team's average, and make a determination for whether you think that continues. In 2006, when the Bears were at least decent running the football, Jones and Benson each averaged 4.1 ypc. Will Forte improve on that?

Do you think the O-line will be dramatically better in 2008? I don't. Chris Williams could be good, but he's still a rookie.

Will the QB play improve? Doubtful.

Have they added playmakers at WR? Nope.

So while Forte might be more motivated than, say, Cedric Benson (ok, a three-toed sloth is more motivated than Benson)....I doubt he averages anywhere close to 4.4 ypc

 

[TheFanatic]

MATT FORTE = BRANDON JACKSONIs this not the most identical scenario that we've already seen. Exactly 1 year ago everyone was all over Brandon Jackson's nutz and he was probably rookie pick 1.4 just like Forte will be. DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE. You can find Brandon Jackson on your WW right about now. People are predicting way too much fromForte. Some times just being in the right place doesn't matter, i.e. Brandon Jackson. Forte was the 6th RB taken which tells you that he likely isn't that good.

This is not a sound argument. He could be Brandon Jackson. He could also be Curtis Martin. More than likely he will be somewhere in between. I am in a dynasty league and have a chance to take Forte so I have to look beyond just this year. I look at this guy and think longterm this guy is not going to do much. They haven't addressed the lack of a solid QB in, what, 4 years now? They most definitely have to draft a QB next year which probably means another partial season with Grossman or Orton before they throw a rookie into the mix. I'm not sure that the QB situation is going to be any good for quite some time. The D is on a downward spiral. The O-Line is nothing special So to me, I think he will be closer to Brandon Jackson that Curtis Martin, but the guy is just not going to do much in that system for quite some time IMHO....

 

[Jon_Moore]

I'll disagree with the notion he has little competition for carries. Adrian Peterson has proven very effective in the past, they drafted Garrett Wolfe a year ago in the 3rd. Sure, they both are career back up types, but I can see one if not both cutting into his touches this season as he adjusts to the pro game.

Whoever wins the Bears QB battle will compete to be the worst starter in the league. The receivers are "eh" at best. The best thing to hope for with Forte is that Hester and the defense combine to give him a number of short fields this season, with close games so he can keep pounding it.

I'd like to tell you the Bears line isn't all that bad, but...the top 4 running backs couldn't break 3.5 Yards per carry

Benson=3.4

Peterson=3.4

Wolfe=2.7

McKie=2.8

Forte has the talent, but the situation just isn't going to allow for it to happen for him.

192 Carries

691 Yards

5 Tds

16 Receptions

105 Yards

 

[cstu]

I'll disagree with the notion he has little competition for carries. Adrian Peterson has proven very effective in the past, they drafted Garrett Wolfe a year ago in the 3rd. Sure, they both are career back up types, but I can see one if not both cutting into his touches this season as he adjusts to the pro game.

Forte has a good chance of getting most of the carries because he's apparently a great blocker. Peterson is a good receiver, but he's no threat to take many carries away from Forte. There's a reason Peterson has been a backup his whole career and that's not suddenly going to change after they draft Forte, unless Forte is a complete bust the way Benson was. Forte was drafted to be the starter and although he likely won't run for much more than 3.5 YPC in the Bears offense, he still has a good shot at getting 300 carries this year.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I'll disagree with the notion he has little competition for carries. Adrian Peterson has proven very effective in the past, they drafted Garrett Wolfe a year ago in the 3rd. Sure, they both are career back up types, but I can see one if not both cutting into his touches this season as he adjusts to the pro game.

Forte has a good chance of getting most of the carries because he's apparently a great blocker. Peterson is a good receiver, but he's no threat to take many carries away from Forte. There's a reason Peterson has been a backup his whole career and that's not suddenly going to change after they draft Forte, unless Forte is a complete bust the way Benson was. Forte was drafted to be the starter and although he likely won't run for much more than 3.5 YPC in the Bears offense, he still has a good shot at getting 300 carries this year.

There were only 6 to break that 300 carry mark last year. I think it may end up taking him a while to see the near 20 carries per game people are pegging him for this season.

 

[The Ref]

I'll disagree with the notion he has little competition for carries. Adrian Peterson has proven very effective in the past, they drafted Garrett Wolfe a year ago in the 3rd. Sure, they both are career back up types, but I can see one if not both cutting into his touches this season as he adjusts to the pro game.

Forte has a good chance of getting most of the carries because he's apparently a great blocker. Peterson is a good receiver, but he's no threat to take many carries away from Forte. There's a reason Peterson has been a backup his whole career and that's not suddenly going to change after they draft Forte, unless Forte is a complete bust the way Benson was. Forte was drafted to be the starter and although he likely won't run for much more than 3.5 YPC in the Bears offense, he still has a good shot at getting 300 carries this year.

If he is in fact a great blocker then he will play. If he gets the bulk of the time, he COULD get 300 touches. But I don't think anyone can project his touches as of right now untill we see how he is going to be used. Forte is off my board right now untill I can figure out how may carries he will get.

 

[cstu]

I'll disagree with the notion he has little competition for carries. Adrian Peterson has proven very effective in the past, they drafted Garrett Wolfe a year ago in the 3rd. Sure, they both are career back up types, but I can see one if not both cutting into his touches this season as he adjusts to the pro game.

Forte has a good chance of getting most of the carries because he's apparently a great blocker. Peterson is a good receiver, but he's no threat to take many carries away from Forte. There's a reason Peterson has been a backup his whole career and that's not suddenly going to change after they draft Forte, unless Forte is a complete bust the way Benson was. Forte was drafted to be the starter and although he likely won't run for much more than 3.5 YPC in the Bears offense, he still has a good shot at getting 300 carries this year.

There were only 6 to break that 300 carry mark last year. I think it may end up taking him a while to see the near 20 carries per game people are pegging him for this season.

Injuries always have a lot of do with the number of players who get 300 carries, but I do think Forte has a good shot at 20 carries a game rather quickly.

If he is in fact a great blocker then he will play. If he gets the bulk of the time, he COULD get 300 touches. But I don't think anyone can project his touches as of right now untill we see how he is going to be used. Forte is off my board right now untill I can figure out how may carries he will get.

It's obviously a guessing game but I think Forte is the type of player who could end up way outproducing his ADP. Yes, he's risky, but I believe he could also pay great dividends later in the season. Last year was a down year for the Bears rushing game, but there's little doubt that they want to get back to running back more. I doubt it's a coincidence that the Bears won the division in 2005 and 2006 when they ran the ball 450 times. If they get back to that then there's plenty of room for carries all around - 300 for Forte, 100 for Peterson and 50 for Wolfe.