Player Spotlight: Maurice Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

A lot of things working for MJD in terms of workload and production this year...

He's a young stud talent whose team just paid him as such

Absolutely zero talent behind him (Jones, Washington and Jennings are no threat at all)

Dramatically improved O-line due to returns from injury

Very weak run defense schedule

His team that should bounce back from last year as they get healthy, and be leading in quite a few games

Coach that wants to run the ball

Marginal-to-average passing game, or at least not an elite air attack

It all adds up to a monster year...

 

[TheFanatic]

I really like going against the grain with these threads...but I'm having a hard time doing it. When I see him play, he plays hard. He seems to be willing to play hurt. He can grind out yards. he can break big gains. he can catch the ball. He can make short-yardage runs.They didn't give him a fat contract to sit on the sidelines. They'll give him a shot to be Mr. Everything imo.

This sounds so eerily similar to what people were saying about MArion Barber last season.

There isn't a Felix Jones in Jax.

No, but there is a Greg Jones and a Rashad Jennings in Jax...should be interesting to see how they are utilized this year...

Those two guys together don't add up to be even close to FJones. Greg Jones had exactly 2 carries in the 12 games he played in last year. Horrible analogy...

 

[switz]

If the point is to bring up people who teased in time shares with under 200 carries, what about ones that have succeeded? Tiki Barber, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, etc.

You're right, there are some players who have excelled after looking good in limited time. I'm not sure the circumstances of the players you list above line up well with Jones-Drew's circumstances though. Turner was clearly a backup player, until he went to ATL. Barber and Westbrook split time early in their career because they couldn't stay healthy. Williams split time because he couldn't pass block, and wasn't running the right plays. Johnson sat behind one of the best RBs in the league.MJD's playing time hasn't been limited due to the same reasons. I guess, of them all, perhaps his circumstances are most like Larry Johnson's - splitting time because the guy ahead of him on the depth chart was uber-talented as well.

However, Johnson was drafted as the heir apparent. MJD was not. A lot of draftniks thought MJD would be a committee back due to his size.

MJD could explode, and it wouldn't surprise me if he did. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me either if he didn't put up much better numbers than last season. His circumstances just seem to line up more with Barlow and Barber's than any of the other backs you mention. Just my $0.02.

 

[TheFanatic]

However, Johnson was drafted as the heir apparent. MJD was not. A lot of draftniks thought MJD would be a committee back due to his size.

This is your argument? That draftniks a few years ago didn't think he was anything more than a committee guy? All kinds of examples of a player making draftniks look stupid. It happens to Mel Kyper about once every 4 minutes once the regular season starts. That just isn't a valid argument. The only argument that he won't perform is that he might not be able to handle another 3-4 carries a game from his previous high of around 200. He has the talent/skill, and as importantly, the opportunity to get the job done. The only question is if he can handle the role and extra carries.

 

[switz]

However, Johnson was drafted as the heir apparent. MJD was not. A lot of draftniks thought MJD would be a committee back due to his size.

This is your argument? That draftniks a few years ago didn't think he was anything more than a committee guy? All kinds of examples of a player making draftniks look stupid. It happens to Mel Kyper about once every 4 minutes once the regular season starts. That just isn't a valid argument.

If you read the rest of the post, I wasn't saying that had anything to do with whether he would succeed or not. I was saying he wasn't viewed as the heir apparent like Larry Johnson. That's all.I know the thread is getting long, but you took my comment about draftniks completely out of context.

 

[TheFanatic]

However, Johnson was drafted as the heir apparent. MJD was not. A lot of draftniks thought MJD would be a committee back due to his size.

This is your argument? That draftniks a few years ago didn't think he was anything more than a committee guy? All kinds of examples of a player making draftniks look stupid. It happens to Mel Kyper about once every 4 minutes once the regular season starts. That just isn't a valid argument.

If you read the rest of the post, I wasn't saying that had anything to do with whether he would succeed or not. I was saying he wasn't viewed as the heir apparent like Larry Johnson. That's all.I know the thread is getting long, but you took my comment about draftniks completely out of context.

You made an argument how MJD was different than all the other RB's mentioned earlier in the thread except for maybe LJ. The only real argument you have to differentiate the two was one was drafted to be the heir apparent. The other wasn't. My point was that what somebody was drafted to do has little bearing on what he will do 3 years later. LJ slipped into his role well but a guy like Stephen Davis after a few years played himself into a starting RB rather than a FB. We discuss all kinds of players that did this. Or Ryan Leaf who was drafted to be a starting QB and played himself into a degenerate loser. You argument about whether he can carry the load carries more weight for me. No pun intended... That's all...

 

[mozzy84]

275 carries - 1256 yards - 12 td's

63 catches - 570 yards - 4 td's

 

[switz]

However, Johnson was drafted as the heir apparent. MJD was not. A lot of draftniks thought MJD would be a committee back due to his size.

This is your argument? That draftniks a few years ago didn't think he was anything more than a committee guy? All kinds of examples of a player making draftniks look stupid. It happens to Mel Kyper about once every 4 minutes once the regular season starts. That just isn't a valid argument.

If you read the rest of the post, I wasn't saying that had anything to do with whether he would succeed or not. I was saying he wasn't viewed as the heir apparent like Larry Johnson. That's all.I know the thread is getting long, but you took my comment about draftniks completely out of context.

You made an argument how MJD was different than all the other RB's mentioned earlier in the thread except for maybe LJ. The only real argument you have to differentiate the two was one was drafted to be the heir apparent. The other wasn't. My point was that what somebody was drafted to do has little bearing on what he will do 3 years later.

I wasn't saying it did. I was comparing their circumstances coming into the league, not their chances for success. In fact I said of all the players mentioned, MJD's circumstances were most like Johnson's, with that one exception.You're taking issue with the exception to their circumstances, when I wasn't using that as any basis for an argument about his possibility for success.

I happen to agree that draft position has very little to do with how a player will perform after a few years in the league. IMO draft position is a good indication of what opportunity a player will receive the first couple years in the league, but once a player has been proven to be able to play in the NFL, draft position is meaningless.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

This may be a reach of a comparison, but it may be worthwhile to look at what Steve Slaton did last year. He was someone the draft experts thought was way to small to be a feature back, despite his great talent and success at the college level. Slaton is only 1 inch taller than MJD at 5'9", and 8 pounds lighter at 197. Slaton had a phenomenal season last year, with 268 carries and 50 receptions, and this includes one game where he had only 4 carries and another where he had 10. Slaton really got going over the final 6 games of the season, where he rushed an average of 22 times a game. I know these are different systems, situations, guys, etc. but I guess what I'm trying to say is that if Steve Slaton can handle 22 carries a game (or at least 318 touches in one season), then MJD can do it. We should also not forget that the reason he hasn't gotten over 200 carries in a season yet is not because he's injury prone and frail, it's because he's been sharing the load with a HOFer who was too good to stick on the bench.

I don't think it's a reach to project him for 20 carries and 3.5 catches per game at averages of 4.5 and 9.5 respectively, especially with an improved O line and slightly improved passing attack.

My brain tells me that his situation looks a lot like Barber's heading into last year, but my gut tells me that anyone who treads cautiously and passes on this guy at 1.02 or later will seriously regret it:

300 carries, 4.5 average, 1350 yards, 14 TDs

56 catches, 9.5 average, 532 yards, 3 TDs

Probably good for #1 in PPR and #2 in non-PPR

 

[greggorymac]

There's been speculation that Jacksonville may be one of the few teams interested in signing Michael Vick this week.

If the Jags do sign Vick, would it:

a) hurt MGD's value

b) help MGD's value

c) not effect MGD's value, Jags are just gaining QB depth

 

[TheFanatic]

There's been speculation that Jacksonville may be one of the few teams interested in signing Michael Vick this week.If the Jags do sign Vick, would it:a) hurt MGD's valueb) help MGD's valuec) not effect MGD's value, Jags are just gaining QB depth

All of the sudden I feel like a beer... I don't know why...

 

[greggorymac]

There's been speculation that Jacksonville may be one of the few teams interested in signing Michael Vick this week.If the Jags do sign Vick, would it:a) hurt MGD's valueb) help MGD's valuec) not effect MGD's value, Jags are just gaining QB depth

All of the sudden I feel like a beer... I don't know why...

LOL... sorry about that.* This post was brought to you by the Miller Brewing Company

 

[TheFanatic]

There's been speculation that Jacksonville may be one of the few teams interested in signing Michael Vick this week.If the Jags do sign Vick, would it:a) hurt MGD's valueb) help MGD's valuec) not effect MGD's value, Jags are just gaining QB depth

All of the sudden I feel like a beer... I don't know why...

LOL... sorry about that.* This post was brought to you by the Miller Brewing Company

To answer your question, I would say none unless Garrard got injured. Gimmick plays and Wild Cats are not going to have a huge impact. But if he is behind center the entire game then he will eat into MJD's touches just based on designed running plays for the QB that they cannot do with the slowest black man on the planet - Garrard///

 

[GoBirds]

Who is MJD's handcuff? G Jones?

 

[cvnpoka]

i entered a ppr league and gave some projections a shot. today i come across this thread and i looked at some of the expert projections on this site and others.

what i cant understand is the low reception totals consistently being floated. mjd has seen his r/g rise from ~2.8 his first 2 years to 3.9 last year. why is this? his catch % as a rookie was 80%, 73% 2007 and then it rose to 82% last year. of course he saw his targets rise last year, from 57/55 to 75. why did his targets rise. well, i think its bc he was on the field more. in 2006/7 fred taylor played 15 games and had 231/223 rushes for the year. but last year taylor only played 13 games and had 143 rushes.

it would be nice if i could find a stat site that gives total plays on the field. still, its fair to assume that fred was on the field for plenty of passing plays. i think a good split would be that the jags threw about 40% of the time fred taylor was on the field. that leaves about 100 plays. mjd should be on the field for most of those plays and will sometimes be the main option by screen or swing pass, and sometimes be a checkdown or escape valve.

i think mjd will see his receptions rise to 75 or so, simply bc he will be on the field more.

my projectsion 240/984/13, 75/700/2. top ppr back imo.

 

[p00h]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

 

[BustedKnuckles]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

sour you couldnt snag him eh ???

 

[G-King]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

So.... If he goes at 1.02 instead of 1.06 (middle of the first in a 12 man)- he is a bust? I tend to think that if a guy goes early in the first, and lives up to top 6 production, not only is he not a bust; but a definite hit.

But thats just me...

 

[cubbie5150]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

So.... If he goes at 1.02 instead of 1.06 (middle of the first in a 12 man)- he is a bust? I tend to think that if a guy goes early in the first, and lives up to top 6 production, not only is he not a bust; but a definite hit.

But thats just me...

QFT...

 

[deadRED]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

Uhhh..........no. Which 8 rb's would you take ahead of MJD?

 

[Keith1]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

Uhhh..........no. Which 8 rb's would you take ahead of MJD?

does last night's "injury" scare anyone ? The talk in my league is that MJD will NOT go in the top 4 (we are 1 point for every 3 receptions). Is he a must take at # 5 ??

 

[p00h]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

Uhhh..........no. Which 8 rb's would you take ahead of MJD?

AP, MT, LT, SJ, MF, DW, CJ, FGI'm not saying he's not highly talented, he most definitely is. But he hasn't proven himself to be an every down back, and that team, well they'll need him to be EVERYTHING this year. So you go from 190 touches to 350 overnight. That is tough. And it's not like he's a 6'3 240 lb bruiser. I'm not one of these guys thats gonna run around saying JAY CUTLER WILL THROW FOR 5600 YARDS!!! or anything like that, but in my humble opinion MJD, in fantasy terms, is setting you up for the fall at 1.02...

 

[The Moz]

Was just offered Andre Johnson for MJD straight up -- have no clue what i am going to do.

 

[pesh]

If MJD lasts the whole year he should be the #2RB. The shark move, will be to get his backup(s). I'm not saying he wont last the year, but he has to show me he can so it.

Good point here, I'd have to throw him in the top three probably at the #2 spot.Another big thing is, he doesn't even have that much of an offensive line. Imagine putting him on a line like the Vikings or Steelers? Oh boy.

 

[switz]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

So.... If he goes at 1.02 instead of 1.06 (middle of the first in a 12 man)- he is a bust? I tend to think that if a guy goes early in the first, and lives up to top 6 production, not only is he not a bust; but a definite hit.

But thats just me...

Per LHUCKS if you go #1 overall and finish #3 overall, you're a BUST... so I would think if you go #2 overall and finish #6 overall, you're a BUST too.In seriousness, no one can predict injury, but guys who never carried the load do run a greater risk, as they don't know how their body will respond, nor how to prepare their body for it. Some make it, some don't... there are the Michael Turners, then there are the Marion Barbers.

MJD does represent some risk... but how much is to be determined.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

(KFFL) Updating previous reports, Vito Stellino, of The Florida Times-Union, reports Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio said X-rays done on RB Maurice Jones-Drew (shin) were negative, and he said Jones-Drew will be OK. Del Rio does not know if Jones-Drew will be able to practice Wednesday, Sept. 9.

 

[Gr00vus]

Unless word comes down that he's out for more than a game or two, if MJD is available you take him, if you have him you keep him.

I envy anyone lucky enough to land him at the 5th pick.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

Uhhh..........no. Which 8 rb's would you take ahead of MJD?

AP, MT, LT, SJ, MF, DW, CJ, FGI'm not saying he's not highly talented, he most definitely is. But he hasn't proven himself to be an every down back, and that team, well they'll need him to be EVERYTHING this year. So you go from 190 touches to 350 overnight. That is tough. And it's not like he's a 6'3 240 lb bruiser. I'm not one of these guys thats gonna run around saying JAY CUTLER WILL THROW FOR 5600 YARDS!!! or anything like that, but in my humble opinion MJD, in fantasy terms, is setting you up for the fall at 1.02...

MJD had 279 total touches (returns, runs, receptions) in 2008, 241 in 2007 and 244 in 2006. So to go from 279 to 330 (265 rush, 65 reception, 0 returns, which I project) would only be 51 more touches, or 3.2 more per game, not the 160, or 10 more per game, you suggest.So it comes down to, can he handle 3 - 4 more touches per game, over 16 games. Maybe, maybe not, but that's not a huge jump in touches. It all may not matter much after last nights injury, but I think people saying it is completely unlcear if he can handle the full load, because he hasn't done it before (similar to M. Turner) are way off. I understand it will be a different role, but I don't think it will be as different as some assume.

Any RB or player can get injured on any play, much like MJD did last night, so I wouldn't say that would show he can not handle the load. The main question is, can MJD handle the weekly pounding. Considering that pounding would only be 3 - 4 more touches per game, and a little blocking, I'd like his chances,

M. Turner, M. Forte, D. Williams, S. Slaton & C. Johnson all did pretty well last year in expanded, or first time roles. It may a little riskier, but with his situation as the main running, receiving and scoring RB on the team, the reward could be well worth it.

 

[two_dollars]

MJD will be the biggest pound for pound bust of the year, only because he's going at 1.02. He's probably good for 12-1500 total yards and about 10 tds, which is not #2 worthy. Even in PPR, he should go middle of 1st. To believe he will outscore LT is absurd, though LT's adp is a whole other discussion. I can definitely take about 8 guys above MJD...

Uhhh..........no. Which 8 rb's would you take ahead of MJD?

AP, MT, LT, SJ, MF, DW, CJ, FGI'm not saying he's not highly talented, he most definitely is. But he hasn't proven himself to be an every down back, and that team, well they'll need him to be EVERYTHING this year. So you go from 190 touches to 350 overnight. That is tough. And it's not like he's a 6'3 240 lb bruiser. I'm not one of these guys thats gonna run around saying JAY CUTLER WILL THROW FOR 5600 YARDS!!! or anything like that, but in my humble opinion MJD, in fantasy terms, is setting you up for the fall at 1.02...

You're right, he's actually a thicker running back running lower to the ground than those guys.

 

[Knobs]

guys who never carried the load do run a greater risk, as they don't know how their body will respond, nor how to prepare their body for it.

Do you have stats to back this up?

 

[cvnpoka]

guys who never carried the load do run a greater risk, as they don't know how their body will respond, nor how to prepare their body for it.

Do you have stats to back this up?

i dont understand. i always heard that guys who have a ton of carries are supposed to be more likely to break down. so which is it? do you want a guy coming off a 400 touch season? or the guy coming off 250 touch season? ppl argue both ways with whatever is in line with their own personal bias. it seems to me, that everyone is an injury risk of similar proportions.1. hes been hurt before so hes an injury risk (sjax)2. hes never carried the load so hes an injury risk.3. he had too many carries last year so hes an injury risk (larry johnson, turner, etc)4. hes too small so hes an injury risk.5. hes too big of a target so hes an injury risk (jacobs)6. he runs too upright so hes an injury risk (chris brown, eddie george)7. his legs are too skinny so hes an injury risk (chris johnson)8. he runs too hard so hes an injury risk (boldin, jacobs)

 

[switz]

guys who never carried the load do run a greater risk, as they don't know how their body will respond, nor how to prepare their body for it.

Do you have stats to back this up?

i dont understand. i always heard that guys who have a ton of carries are supposed to be more likely to break down. so which is it? do you want a guy coming off a 400 touch season? or the guy coming off 250 touch season?

Pretty much either extreme is bad... too much wear and tear versus unprepared for wear and tear...Maroney never shouldered the load in college, came into the NFL and got injured

Barber never carried the load, the first season he tried to he got injured

Joseph Addai never carried the load in college, tried to in the NFL and got injured

Those are a few recent examples...

I'm no saying MJD is unprepared to handle the load, just that he represents more risk than players who've "been there done that"

 

[two_dollars]

guys who never carried the load do run a greater risk, as they don't know how their body will respond, nor how to prepare their body for it.

Do you have stats to back this up?

i dont understand. i always heard that guys who have a ton of carries are supposed to be more likely to break down. so which is it? do you want a guy coming off a 400 touch season? or the guy coming off 250 touch season?

Pretty much either extreme is bad... too much wear and tear versus unprepared for wear and tear...Maroney never shouldered the load in college, came into the NFL and got injured

Barber never carried the load, the first season he tried to he got injured

Joseph Addai never carried the load in college, tried to in the NFL and got injured

Those are a few recent examples...

I'm no saying MJD is unprepared to handle the load, just that he represents more risk than players who've "been there done that"

How about a guy who had 257 touches while only starting 9 games, then came back for a 384 touch season, who has been healthy only 50% of his years in the NFL and was also injured in college when he tried to carry the load? What would your prognosis be for someone like that moving forward? Is that someone who can reliably carry the load?

 

[switz]

guys who never carried the load do run a greater risk, as they don't know how their body will respond, nor how to prepare their body for it.

Do you have stats to back this up?

i dont understand. i always heard that guys who have a ton of carries are supposed to be more likely to break down. so which is it? do you want a guy coming off a 400 touch season? or the guy coming off 250 touch season?

Pretty much either extreme is bad... too much wear and tear versus unprepared for wear and tear...Maroney never shouldered the load in college, came into the NFL and got injured

Barber never carried the load, the first season he tried to he got injured

Joseph Addai never carried the load in college, tried to in the NFL and got injured

Those are a few recent examples...

I'm no saying MJD is unprepared to handle the load, just that he represents more risk than players who've "been there done that"

How about a guy who had 257 touches while only starting 9 games, then came back for a 384 touch season, who has been healthy only 50% of his years in the NFL and was also injured in college when he tried to carry the load? What would your prognosis be for someone like that moving forward? Is that someone who can reliably carry the load?

Might be, might not... like I said - it doesn't mean someone CANNOT, just that they hold MORE risk than some other players.... don't twist what I said into something I didn't.I would tend to think, if they've shown they carry the load in the NFL, that they pose less of a risk, compared to someone who never has carried the load in the NFL. 384 carries is pretty high, so they then border on the other extreme of too many carries. BTW, I don't see touches having as much impact as carries, for the high number being extreme. A guy who catches 80 balls and rushes 300 times, IMO has less wear and tear than someone who rushes 380 times.

BTW - who are you referring to?

 

[two_dollars]

guys who never carried the load do run a greater risk, as they don't know how their body will respond, nor how to prepare their body for it.

i dont understand. i always heard that guys who have a ton of carries are supposed to be more likely to break down. so which is it? do you want a guy coming off a 400 touch season? or the guy coming off 250 touch season?

Pretty much either extreme is bad... too much wear and tear versus unprepared for wear and tear...Maroney never shouldered the load in college, came into the NFL and got injured

Barber never carried the load, the first season he tried to he got injured

Joseph Addai never carried the load in college, tried to in the NFL and got injured

Those are a few recent examples...

I'm no saying MJD is unprepared to handle the load, just that he represents more risk than players who've "been there done that"

How about a guy who had 257 touches while only starting 9 games, then came back for a 384 touch season, who has been healthy only 50% of his years in the NFL and was also injured in college when he tried to carry the load? What would your prognosis be for someone like that moving forward? Is that someone who can reliably carry the load?

Might be, might not... like I said - it doesn't mean someone CANNOT, just that they hold MORE risk than some other players.... don't twist what I said into something I didn't.I would tend to think, if they've shown they carry the load in the NFL, that they pose less of a risk, compared to someone who never has carried the load in the NFL. 384 carries is pretty high, so they then border on the other extreme of too many carries. BTW, I don't see touches having as much impact as carries, for the high number being extreme. A guy who catches 80 balls and rushes 300 times, IMO has less wear and tear than someone who rushes 380 times.

BTW - who are you referring to?

AP. I don't know if he's built to carry the load either.

 

[GoBirds]

So who is the official MJD handcuff, is it the Jennings kid or Greg Jones? Is it worth dropping a Michael Bush for this insurance if MJD cant carry the load?