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Player Spotlight: Philip Rivers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
This is correct. But if you take this into account, you are implicitly on my side in the "games played" debate. Nearly 100% of teams throw for over 3,000 yards. But only half the starting QBs do, largely because a lot of them miss some games.Two more notes: (1) my overall passing yards are in line with league norms; and (2) my overall passing yards for starters versus backups are in line with league norms. There is no way to accomplish both (1) and (2) while projecting every starter to play in 16 games. (Whether accomplishing (1) and (2) is important is another matter, but to me it's all part of trying to be accurate.)
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Hey JWB,Admittedly the stats in and of themselves are somewhat spurious. As you might hope, my projections (and ranking) for Rivers are based on a range of factors, one of which is a position-wide normalization I use to make sure I'm not out of whack with historical norms.
As to Rivers games played...as Maurile suggests, TEAMS almost all throw for more than 3,000 yards; it's just that the average QB doesn't play the entire season typically. To that end, even though history suggests 15 QBs will surpass the 3,000 yard mark, my most current set of projections has 23 QBs doing so (as I don't explicitly forecast for injury).
What I do forecast for, perhaps more than many on this board are comfortable (but I've found it works for me) are assumptions as to playing time relative to historical circumstance. Personally, given Rivers inexperience and what I believe to be lofty expectations (having to step into Pro Bowl shoes), I think there's a very good chance that at some point in the year he gets parked on the bench.
Like all things, my projections are fluid. I will happily tweak them as we get into the preseason if reports of Rivers command in the huddle pan out. But for now, I view him as little more than a QB3 in 10-team leagues.
One final note, relative to Yudkin's point about the Chargers being ahead of the game based on 2005 numbers. This isn't 2005. We've got a new, inexperienced quarterback at the helm, an all world running back and a conservative head coach...I have a strong suspicion the run/pass ratio (and their relative effectiveness) are going to bear little resemblance to the Chargers of 2005.
Actually, it would have been fifth in the league in yardage, behind the Cardinals, Rams, Patriots, and Colts. That may still be too high, but it's not tops in the league. (It would have been seventh in 2004.)
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I looked into how recent QB have done that sat at least half a season (preferably 1 or more) and how they did once they took over AS A STARTER. So games with a couple last minute kneel downs or 2 passing attempts were left out. Part of the issue here is that these numbers were fragments of a season, which is a bit of the point of the exercise. Many times people will look at these QB and point to their RANKING (say #21 on the year) when we should be looking at their PPG once they became regular starters. I'm sure there are others that I left off, but here's the ones I could target in a first pass.
PLAYER, PPG, 16-GAME PROJECTION
Daunte Culpepper MIN 25.13/402
Kurt Warner STL 24.00/384
Aaron Brooks NO 22.50/360
Kordell Stewart PIT 20.75/332
Mark Brunell JAX 20.18/323
Chad Pennington NYJ 19.46/311
Trent Green WAS 18.47/295
Jeff Blake CIN 18.10/290
Brad Johnson MIN 16.90/270
Brett Favre GB 16.40/262
Brian Griese DEN 15.64/250
Carson Palmer CIN 15.00/240
Tom Brady NE 14.79/237
Drew Brees SD 14.69/235
Jake Delhomme CAR 14.44/231
Rich Gannon MIN 13.93/223
Chris Simms TB 13.50/216
Jay Fiedler MIA 13.00/208
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12.00/192
Rivers was not exactly chopped liver as a college QB and put up some impressive numbers. He certainly was more touted than some of the guys listed above, and as I mentioned earlier, is taking over for a team that did well passing the ball.
While I certainly don't expect Rivers to be the next Culpepper or Warner, I think the automatic doom and gloom conclusion is one that may not be justified.
PLAYER, PPG, 16-GAME PROJECTION
Daunte Culpepper MIN 25.13/402
Kurt Warner STL 24.00/384
Aaron Brooks NO 22.50/360
Kordell Stewart PIT 20.75/332
Mark Brunell JAX 20.18/323
Chad Pennington NYJ 19.46/311
Trent Green WAS 18.47/295
Jeff Blake CIN 18.10/290
Brad Johnson MIN 16.90/270
Brett Favre GB 16.40/262
Brian Griese DEN 15.64/250
Carson Palmer CIN 15.00/240
Tom Brady NE 14.79/237
Drew Brees SD 14.69/235
Jake Delhomme CAR 14.44/231
Rich Gannon MIN 13.93/223
Chris Simms TB 13.50/216
Jay Fiedler MIA 13.00/208
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12.00/192
Rivers was not exactly chopped liver as a college QB and put up some impressive numbers. He certainly was more touted than some of the guys listed above, and as I mentioned earlier, is taking over for a team that did well passing the ball.
While I certainly don't expect Rivers to be the next Culpepper or Warner, I think the automatic doom and gloom conclusion is one that may not be justified.
Oops -- by the way, major correction: I have projected the durable starting QBs for 14 games, not 13. (I knew it was 87.5% of the snaps, but I was thinking that equated to 13 games. It doesn't. It's 14.)I've got the Chargers projected for 3768 yards -- 3379 by the starter and 389 by the backup. Nowhere near tops in the league.
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JohnnyTitan
Footballguy
Do you guys think Rivers will be playing with a chip on his shoulder?
It seems that certain careers are forever linked..and I don't know how Rivers won't be compared by some to Eli. Like Mier / Bledsoe or Manning / Leaf...I think these two will always be compared.
And like (I hope) Lendale White will play extra hard because of his low draft pick, I think Rivers has the extra incentive to succeed. Sometimes it helps to have an outside factore pushing you.
I'm bullish on Rivers. I think with the Chargers situation and his obvious talent he can achieve 90% of Eli's numbers. 3700*.9 = 3330 yards and 23*.9 = 21 TDs. Book it !! Next year I hope he's better than Eli.
It seems that certain careers are forever linked..and I don't know how Rivers won't be compared by some to Eli. Like Mier / Bledsoe or Manning / Leaf...I think these two will always be compared.
And like (I hope) Lendale White will play extra hard because of his low draft pick, I think Rivers has the extra incentive to succeed. Sometimes it helps to have an outside factore pushing you.
I'm bullish on Rivers. I think with the Chargers situation and his obvious talent he can achieve 90% of Eli's numbers. 3700*.9 = 3330 yards and 23*.9 = 21 TDs. Book it !! Next year I hope he's better than Eli.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Wouldn't another "career forever linked" would be Rivers and Drew Brees?
JohnnyTitan
Footballguy
I always consider Brees + Tomlinson linked to Vick
Rivers has already said that opening the season on September 11 will be extra special because it's a double-header with Eli Manning playing right afterwards.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Rivers: 2875 - 18td/20int - 58% comp
wannabee
Footballguy
Chargers | Ramsdell has history with developing quarterbacks
Published Mon Aug 7 10:05:00 p.m. ET 2006
(KFFL) Jay Paris, of the North County Times, reports San Diego Chargers quarterbacks coach John Ramsdell has a history of developing quarterbacks. Ramsdell was the quarterbacks coach with the St. Louis Rams, where he and former Rams head coach Mike Martz helped QB Kurt Warner and QB Marc Bulger develop. Bulger said, "Ramsdell is bright; he's been around the best. He knew the offense just as well as coach Martz. Footballwise he knows his stuff and can relate to players pretty well. I think (Ramsdell) will be fine. He worked with Kurt coming in and me, and five or six in between us. He knows what it takes. He's seen coach Martz develop them, and he was a large part of that, too."
Published Mon Aug 7 10:05:00 p.m. ET 2006
(KFFL) Jay Paris, of the North County Times, reports San Diego Chargers quarterbacks coach John Ramsdell has a history of developing quarterbacks. Ramsdell was the quarterbacks coach with the St. Louis Rams, where he and former Rams head coach Mike Martz helped QB Kurt Warner and QB Marc Bulger develop. Bulger said, "Ramsdell is bright; he's been around the best. He knew the offense just as well as coach Martz. Footballwise he knows his stuff and can relate to players pretty well. I think (Ramsdell) will be fine. He worked with Kurt coming in and me, and five or six in between us. He knows what it takes. He's seen coach Martz develop them, and he was a large part of that, too."
After watching the first preseason game, I would have to project Rivers to be slightly less durable than average. Not because of Rivers, but because of Leander Jordan. If he starts at LT, Rivers is going to get hammered twice a game.
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Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I was just looking at the video you posted in the "Bandwagon" thread. Rivers threw out of a LOT of one-back and no-back sets, and he was only sacked twice in that half. Throw Tomlinson (a very good blocker) and Lorenzo Neal (one of the all-time best blockers) back into the mix, and I think they might be able to make this work.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
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