Player Spotlight: Randy McMichael (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randy McMichael, TE, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Randy McMichael Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[ThePittbully]

65/700/4

Return to form or possibly better. Bulger's back, Al Saunders is the new OC, and other than Holt, no receivers really stand out. If they don't have a repeat of last year's wave of injuries, this should be a much improved offense

 

[Flea Flicker]

Undervalued.

It wasn't that long ago that McMichael was regarded much more highly among us. With Saunders in StL, expect a return to the career averages for McMichael, and I have some hope he might actually beat them.

The tricky thing to predict here is the # of TDs.

55-600-5

 

[Byron_nyc]

Scott Linehan brought a rookie Randy McMichael into the top ten TEs and now brings a mature, more polished McMichael to St.Louis to be his redzone threat and third overall option after Jackson and Holt. If St. Louis gets in the redzone often, McMicahel could easily finish in the top five tight ends in fantasy as he did in 2004 -- and he's being currently drafted as an afterthought. He gets extra points for me for publicly blaming his weak 2006 on himself. If you think St.Louis is in for a rebound as an offense, as I do, bet on McMichael as a top TE you can draft very late.

75/850/7

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Randy McMichael is not Tony Gonzalez. He is Randy McMichael and there's nothing wrong with that. He had 3 straight 60-catch seasons before having less than 40 last season. If the Rams can play better he can return to his previous level of play which is very good value. I wouldn't expect more than that regardless of the offensive coordinator.

 

[dmac37]

Buy, Buy, Buy!

It should be much better for McMichael and the Ram offense compared to last year. It seemed like the o-line was dipping to 3 and 4 deep in many positions making McMichael stay in to block. Saunders is known to use his TE all day long, and with Bruce gone he could be the #3 option.

I was very happy to grab him as the #19 TE of the board as my #2 TE

 

[Ministry of Pain]

McMichael was really doing well before Al Saunders entered his life. And Saunders is smart enough at this point to look at the talent a team has assembled before he would take on the role of OC...so what I'm implying is that he knows he has a RB/TE/WR/QB that will fit his system that he ran in KC...not saying they will all post the same numbers but it should not be a surprise if McMichael were toreturn to form a little bit. I'm not as optimistic as everyone but certainly an increase and also a return to top10 is not out of the question here.

55/600/5 TD...a terrific TE2 for most owners with the ability to possibly move ahead.

 

[Dexter Manley]

I think Saunders should have a positive effect on McMichael's production, as his offenses are very te friendly. McMichael's floor is obviously what he did last year, I don't think he can do any worse. He does seem like a really good fit for Saunders scheme, however, and I think he could easily put up top 10 te #'s this year. McMichael should be one of the best values at te, as he's likely to be available in the late rounds of most drafts.

Here's a relevant article:

Can a tight end coming off a 39-catch season lead the Rams' offense back to prominence?

As unlikely as it sounds, that is one of the questions that new offensive coordinator Al Saunders has been faced with in his return to St. Louis. He takes over an offense that finished 24th in total offense. However, that should change and one of the keys may be Randy McMichael.

Despite coming off the worst season of his career (those 39 receptions for 424 yards and three touchdowns), McMichael figures to play a more prominent role under Saunders. The innovative play-caller incorporates the tight end heavily and McMichael's skills are a perfect match.

"He has the ability to put up big numbers in that offense," said a NFC scout. "I'm not saying that he is a better player than Chris Cooley, but he is a better athlete and he'll get enough opportunities to be a problem for the defense."

McMichael creates a matchup dilemma for defenses as his athleticism makes him a tough draw for linebackers and his size poses a problem for smaller defenders in space.

Saunders has a history of taking advantage of such mismatches, having been instrumental in the development of perennial Pro Bowl tight ends (Cooley and Tony Gonzalez). Under Saunders' direction, the starting tight end has averaged 72 receptions for 900 yards and six touchdowns. Saunders, who undoubtedly learned how to utilize the tight end while as working as an offensive assistant on Don Coryell's staff with the Chargers during the Kellen Winslow era, builds his attack from inside-out, using with the running back and tight end in prominent roles.

McMichael has flourished as the focal point in the past, and his career includes three seasons with over 60 receptions as a Dolphins. Although the presence of Steven Jackson and Torry Holt will make the Rams less reliant on McMichael in the passing game, the seven-year veteran will benefit from the attention directed to the Rams' top playmakers. With teams sure to load up the box with an assortment of eight-man fronts to clog up Jackson's running lanes on early downs, McMichael should find plenty of room to operate against soft three-deep zones that accompany those looks. And his presence down the middle of the field is the ideal remedy for the double coverage or two-deep zones that teams use to minimize Holt's impact.

The Rams' offense was a disappointment of epic proportions last season, but the re-emergence of McMichael should lead the unit out of the doldrums and back to the ranks of the elite.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...rams/index.html

 

[mlball77]

With Bruce gone, it seems there will be more opportunity for one or both of Bennett and McMichael... I'm just not sure yet who I feel will benefit most at this time.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Randy McMichael is consistently mediocre for the Rams. He will get you a few catches a game, less than 50 yards receiving without a Td. I don't think there's very much upside by drafting McMichael and he shouldn't be drafted anything more than a backup TE.

37 receptions for 450 yards and 3 td's

 

[gianmarco]

Randy McMichael is consistently mediocre for the Rams. He will get you a few catches a game, less than 50 yards receiving without a Td. I don't think there's very much upside by drafting McMichael and he shouldn't be drafted anything more than a backup TE.37 receptions for 450 yards and 3 td's

Essentially predicting career lows and to repeat his #'s last year on an abysmal Rams offense despite a healthier O-line (less blocking for him), the addition of Saunders (tremendous history of using TE's effectively), and the loss of Bruce (potentially the #3 receiving option behind Jackson and Holt). Interesting.

 

[Cowtippers]

Randy McMichael is consistently mediocre for the Rams. He will get you a few catches a game, less than 50 yards receiving without a Td. I don't think there's very much upside by drafting McMichael and he shouldn't be drafted anything more than a backup TE.

37 receptions for 450 yards and 3 td's

Essentially predicting career lows and to repeat his #'s last year on an abysmal Rams offense despite a healthier O-line (less blocking for him), the addition of Saunders (tremendous history of using TE's effectively), and the loss of Bruce (potentially the #3 receiving option behind Jackson and Holt). Interesting.

 

[Jon_Moore]

McMichael has been on some miserable offenses in his career, so maybe that's whats held his numbers down, but then again, he's only broken 600 Yards twice and only hit 5 tds once. With a great running back and one of the best receivers in the game keeping defenses away from him, McMichael should be able to get free quite often. With Bruce leaving and the other receivers outside Holt just not being that good, there are plenty of receptions for McMichael to go get, and the offense should be one of the better ones in the league again this year as opposed to one of the worst last year.

60 Receptions

624 Yards

4 TDs

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Randy McMichael is consistently mediocre for the Rams. He will get you a few catches a game, less than 50 yards receiving without a Td. I don't think there's very much upside by drafting McMichael and he shouldn't be drafted anything more than a backup TE.37 receptions for 450 yards and 3 td's

Essentially predicting career lows and to repeat his #'s last year on an abysmal Rams offense despite a healthier O-line (less blocking for him), the addition of Saunders (tremendous history of using TE's effectively), and the loss of Bruce (potentially the #3 receiving option behind Jackson and Holt). Interesting.

I don't think losing a wide receiver translates into more catches for the TE spot. I'd be more inclined to look for a sleeper at the WR position for the Rams than assuming the extra passes go to another position. The Saunders angle is as good as any to predict improvement but outside of Survivor leagues where I like that McMichaels plays in all of his games, I don't think you win very many leagues by starting Randy McMichael.

 

[Cowtippers]

From 2004 - 2006 McMichael averaged 105 targets, 65 rec and 156 points per season in ppr leagues that award 1 ppr for TE's. If he can return to 85% of those numbers in 2008 under Saunders guidence that's still a solid deal for a TE #2 that you can draft around round 20 of most drafts. I think he'll bounce back to have a very solid year.......

prediction....

60 Rec

725 Yards

6 TD's

 

[gianmarco]

Of note, McMichael is the 23rd ranked fantasy TE by FBG staffers with the highest ranking by any of them at 20. Wow.

Guys like Fasano, Marcedes Lewis, and even LJ Smith and Carlson are ahead of him. In his projections, no one has him over 50 catches and 4 out of 5 have him in the 400's for yds gained.

With the exception of last year in St. Louis during their horrific offense, McMichael has had 60+ receptions in 3 out of his 4 previous years and 580+ yds in 4 out of his 4 last years. Essentially, all of the projections are repeat of McMichael's 2007 #'s. There are CLEARLY differences in the situation between last year and this year and it seems that none of them have been taken into account. The largest of which, IMO, was his necessity to stay in and block because of the vast injuries to the O-line last year. For those who forget to understand the impact that can have look no further than Jason Witten just 2 yrs ago in 2006 and his 1 TD year when he had to stay in and block and wasn't able to be as involved in the passing game as intended.

This is not to mention that McMichael has finished 11th or higher in every year he's been in the league (including his rookie year) except for last year where he finished 17th.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Randy McMichael is consistently mediocre for the Rams. He will get you a few catches a game, less than 50 yards receiving without a Td. I don't think there's very much upside by drafting McMichael and he shouldn't be drafted anything more than a backup TE.37 receptions for 450 yards and 3 td's

Essentially predicting career lows and to repeat his #'s last year on an abysmal Rams offense despite a healthier O-line (less blocking for him), the addition of Saunders (tremendous history of using TE's effectively), and the loss of Bruce (potentially the #3 receiving option behind Jackson and Holt). Interesting.

I don't think losing a wide receiver translates into more catches for the TE spot. I'd be more inclined to look for a sleeper at the WR position for the Rams than assuming the extra passes go to another position. The Saunders angle is as good as any to predict improvement but outside of Survivor leagues where I like that McMichaels plays in all of his games, I don't think you win very many leagues by starting Randy McMichael.

Some may not think you win very many leagues by starting McMichael....if some choose look at it in a vacuum. Factor in the players at other positions you can potentially bank by waiting the half-past-forever it seems like you'll be able to wait before you land Randy and things look a bit different, no?If McMichael were to get 60 catches, 600 yards and 4-5 TDs in a PPR league(not unreasonable #s at all, IMO, and in a Saunders offense he probably eclipses the catches by at least 10 rec./100 yards) that would have put him at TE8/9 the past two years. If an owner can't win with a top 10 TE, mind you that they probably were able to draft in round 14, then they either got supremely unlucky with injuries with their earlier picks or they need to think about picking up a new hobby.I expect Cooley-esque #s without the TDs. The Rams play some bad defenses, if memory serves, and without Bruce I totally think that means more checkdowns by Bulger to a reliable safety valve.65-75 catches 680-735 yards 4 TDs.

 

[PranksterJD]

These are **very** loose statistics, so somebody may want to check me, but from a quick look at what Saunders has done with TEs....

2000 KCC Gonzalez = 93/1203/9 ( no Saunders )2001 KCC Gonzalez = 73/917/6 ( with Saunders )2005 WAS Cooley = 71/774/7 ( no Saunders )2006 WAS Cooley = 57/734/6 ( with Saunders )Now, these are certainly just a couple of instances, but it seems like where Saunders "used TEs effectively", they were being used pretty effectively to begin with. With the exception of Kellen Winslow's 64/728/5 for San Diego in 1986, I didn't see any other significantly impressive stats for TEs on Saunders-led teams. So, it seems like most of the time when Saunders has an elite TE, its because he **has** an elite TE, not because he **made** an elite TE.I'm not saying McMichael isn't low in the rankings, but it doesn't seem to me like Saunders being the OC in St. Louis ( and his effect on TEs ) is a solid reason to bump him. I bump him because (1) Saunders will make the entire Rams teams into a better offense, and (2) McMichael is very possibly the best receiving option behind Holt and Jackson, regardless of position. Those two things means he should get an increase in looks, but I'm not sure its significant.

My prediction is 50/550/4. Good enough for TE10-TE13 on the year, and a low end fantasy TE1 though a better TE2.... still a steal at his ADP of TE19. IMO, the issue is that most of the guys ahead of him have a higher ceiling but a lower floor, and I'd rather take a chance on a guy that's got the upside of a TE5 than a guy that I believe is stuck at TE10. 5-ish has a good point when he says that the time you can wait on McMichael could be valuable, but I'd personally rather have a TE with higher upside than an upgrade at my fifth RB or WR.

 

[rzrback77]

Randy McMichael has had a decent career in the NFL. He has finished as a top ten TE four out of six seasons. Yet he has slipped for the past three seasons, including TE 11 in 06 and TE 17 last year in St. Louis. Lots of posters think the combination of last year's down offense at St. Louis, the loss of Bruce, and the addition of Saunders adds up to a super bargain with McMichael. I don't see it that way.

The Rams have a history of focus on the WRs and the RBs with the TEs being an afterthought. I think that the receptions vacated by Bruce are much more likely to fall to Jackson or one fo Bennett or Avery. I do believe that the Rams bounce back, just not to the betterment of the stats for McMichael. I think last year's numbers are close to what we should expect in 08.

Randy McMichael 72 targets 42 receptions 58% 460 yards 11.0 ypc 4 TDs