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20 yards per catch? :XI see Moss as 1 exciting play every game, and 2 or 3 games where he is the #1 option.
65 catches (4/gm)
1300 yards
12 TDs
I forsee at least 1 60 yard TD per game.
reg said:
Actually Moss is ahead of Rice in every category through the age of 29...All-Time WR Stats through age of 29
Crazy....Never would I compare Moss to Rice, but I suppose theres statistical grounds for it. Moss won't last as long as Rice did, but Rice declined steadily in his late 30s. Good Merge by the way!
If you see AT LEAST 1 60 yard TD per game are you saying Moss will only play 12 games?I see Moss as 1 exciting play every game, and 2 or 3 games where he is the #1 option.
65 catches (4/gm)
1300 yards
12 TDs
I forsee at least 1 60 yard TD per game.
The 2 years that Moss had over 100 catches in a season directly followed Chris Carters retirement. Then he was injured and then traded.While I do not expect him to have quite so many catches as this with the Patriots that does not mean he is not capable of doing so.
I was looking forward not looking backward. Moss still has what I listed to catch Rice even if Moss has an advantage in some categories at the same age. For those that really don't have a firm grap on how statistically dominant Rice was against all other WR, he has 52% more reeciving yards, 40% more receptions, and 51% more receiving TD than the #2 ranked WR in those categories.Jason Wood said:
Thanks for sharing. I will add my own team breakdown but have not had time to piece that together yet . . .Biabreakable said:
I'm very disappointed in your half-arsing the exercise. If something is worth doing, it's worth doing right.
Kidding, of course. Nice work. 
This is silly. You also know Moss only signed a one year deal, right?Biabreakable said:
I wouldn't say mine is set in stone by any means. I spent about 3 hours on it last saturday and I did allready have some framework on it in place. However I have not gotten down into the more minor details exhaustivly yet and I can see myself building these projections out in more detail later.One thing I am still asking myself is if Morris won't have a bigger role in the offense this year or not. I projected his contribution to be quite low imo.If he does have a larger role than what I have accounted for it could come from Maroney or from the passing game.My general ideas on this (and the basis for my numbers) are that the Pats will throw much more often this year than they did last year when thier offense was very balanced. I am expecting somthing like a 56/44 pass/run split with the numbers I gave for 2007. Then shifting back towards more balance in 2008 and 2009 as the running game becomes more effective. Although I have pass attempts scaling back in 2008 from 2007 I am expecting more effectivness from the passing game. I think the Brady/Moss combo will become better in 2008 as they become more used to each other and also from improved rushing attack.Projections for 2009 are more vanila. In most cases mirroring 2008 projections. That will change in time. But I do not have enough information right now to do that as well as I can with other teams with more certain situations. The Pats have a lot of new offensive personel. That makes this interesting but also hard to predict even this year much less the 2 following seasons. Contract status of Moss and Stallworth is really uncertain beyond 2007 as well.With a year of history of the players working together as well as a clearer idea of each players long term role with the team it would be easier to project out from. But that is not available at this time.3 new starters at WR and the loss of a starting RB is an awful lot of change.
I will try harder next time.I'm very disappointed in your half-arsing the exercise. If something is worth doing, it's worth doing right.Kidding, of course. Nice work.
Yes I know this. It was one of the reasons why Moss went to the Pats instead of Green Bush. Probobly not the most important one but it was one of the differences between the 2 teams offers that Moss seemed to favor according to Favre.I think Moss wants to be in more control of his destiny by not signing with any team long term. If he continues to sign one year deals and goes to other teams that will be very mercenary of him.But Randy is honest to a fault about his feelings. And so I believe him when he talks about being somewhat in awe of the opportunity to play with the 3 time super bowl champion Patriots dynasty. The one year contract may be similar to moving in with a GF before deciding to get married. I happen to think this relationship will be successful and so it will be continued. I don't see why Moss would demand a huge contract from them after this year if all goes well between them. Money does not seem to be his motivation at all. When he got his huge contract from the Vikings I questioned this at that time and considered it a crossroads for Randy where he could go either way. Get lazy with the fat contract secured or keep playing at a high level. Well he kept playing very hard. In fact those years coincided with some of his highest catch seasons as he was also taking over the load once carried by Chris Carter. And while money may not be a huge factor in this for the Patriots (although past circumstances with them and thier former WRs seems to indicate that it is.. a point that I am sure some Pats fans will refute.. but anyways..). I can see them being more accomidating to Moss and keeping him if he is willing to play for less than premium market value.. why wouldn't they?So yeah unless you think Moss will totaly screw the pooch here I see Moss being with the Patriots over the next 3 years at least.Still think I am silly?
Arguably the best set of receivers he's ever had. I don't think 3 more than his best to date is exceedingly high.
Perhaps we should tier Branch, Givens and Brown with Moss, Stallworth and Welker?MossStallworthBranchWelkerGivensBrown**note I am ranking Brown for the purpose of this in his waning years not when he was in his prime. In his prime he would be pretty close to Welker and Branch.
Good job...very feasible. The one big difference I have with you is Welker. I think he will do a decent amount more than you project as far as receptions go. I'm of the belief he will develop a legit bond with Brady and become a young Troy Brown. He won't put up big yardage or TDs but he will be a chain-mover. With the speed on the outside in Moss and Stallworth Welker will be in a position to go against #3 CBs and safeties on a consistent basis and should be open early and often. I really believe BB sees him as a big piece of this offense for the near future and that is why they gave up a #2 and #7 and a decent contract. I don't recommend him for fantasy purposes because I believe his value is much more geared towards real football.Question...do you see Maroney getting hurt? Your yardage total is only 400 yards higher than last year when he was splitting carries as well as missing a few games due to an injury.
Alittle bit. Moss will take the money next year. Wait n see. Hes just happy hes not in Oakland.Thats not as silly as the projected numbers you have. Predicting Maroney to rush 1400 yds the next 3 years I just dont see, beit injury or RBBC, something probably will come up. Ill give you the benefit of the doubt there though, who knows, he may turn out that great. Expecting Moss to come down with up to 90 catches and 1400 yards in a season is
Your Kevin Fault predictions are accurate, and Brady has a high bottom so Ill let those predictions be. Some of them are just silly though, are you a
Is this your tiering for the WRs in question? Moss is not here..If you have a point or somthing to contribute to this discussion then by all means begin.
If you are only reading the high end of the projection range then you do not understand what I am projecting here.It is a range where I project a high and low for each player with my actual expectation that the player will likely land somewhere in between.The possibility of Moss catching 90 passes from Brady is inconcievable? That is my high for him. He has done better than this in arguably worse situations before...I am a Vikings fan. I know a few things about Randy Moss.Steel Mike Tomczak said:Alittle bit. Moss will take the money next year. Wait n see. Hes just happy hes not in Oakland.Thats not as silly as the projected numbers you have. Predicting Maroney to rush 1400 yds the next 3 years I just dont see, beit injury or RBBC, something probably will come up. Ill give you the benefit of the doubt there though, who knows, he may turn out that great. Expecting Moss to come down with up to 90 catches and 1400 yards in a season isBiabreakable said:
I am glad you are amused.If its flawed how so? If its not worth talking about then why are you?BigSteelThrill said:The smilies said enough. I found the list laughable.
I wasnt "talking", I was posting smilies. Now we are talking about an off topic subject.I am glad you are amused.If its flawed how so? If its not worth talking about then why are you?BigSteelThrill said:The smilies said enough. I found the list laughable.And in the end, it wasnt worth talking about something so horribly flawed.
I see.I am talking about Randy Moss here. That is what this thread is about. The tiers I depicted were intended to show the gaps in talent level between the relative WRs in question from when Brady threw 28 TD which was his highest so far in his career, to the WRs he has available to him now.Do you realise that based off of 9 years of data (including Raider years) Randy Moss has a 73% chance of scoring a TD every game?That might be enough for Brady to possibly throw more TDs than he has before. Ya think?So perhaps you are trying to express how Brady feels with these smileys?I wasnt "talking", I was posting smilies. Now we are talking about an off topic subject.I am glad you are amused.If its flawed how so? If its not worth talking about then why are you?BigSteelThrill said:The smilies said enough. I found the list laughable.
I don't necessarily seem him GETTING hurt, although I do think HE IS hurt. As I mentioned in other Maroney threads, I think they will try to limit his carries some and have him see the carries that really matter. So if the Pats got ahead and a game was essentially in control and decided, I think other backs may see the mop up carries to keep Maroney fresh/healthy.As I said, the problem with projecting the Pats is that any one of their players could be projected fairly high . . . but if you add up the individual parts you can easily come up with 40 TD passes and 8000 total yards of offense (which clearly is not going to happen).Maybe they use some of the depth guys less than I slotted them for as the passing numbers to me still look a little high (although I think they could get up that high). I projected the rushing yards at 100 yards less than last year (due to Dillon's absence) and better receiving options. Maroney could have a huge season but I am thinking that will happen later on down the road.I liked Welker's numbers a lot better before Moss came on board. Maybe he becomes the chain mover and the other guys the downfield and intermediate threats. But whose numbers would he cut into if he had a lot more than 40 or 50 catches? I gave him 40 and the team 350--which would almost be a career high for Brady as it is.Boston said:
Moss is not the same player he was for his first few years in the league. His body has slowed and become injury prone while his work ethic and attitude have continued their steady descent. It didn't take him long to become a cancer in Oakland, nor will it take long in New England, where he will be angry that Brady refuses to key on him. Winning wont even solve Randy's problems.53/800/6
Your reasoning makes sense and if the Pats add another RB like Chris Brown than I'd feel more comfortable about your Maroney projections. As for Welker I'm much higher on him than most. Even before he came onboard I thought he'd be a guy who would make a textbook Patriot. I think the Pats may do some things differently this year on O (or at least do some things more consistently). On paper this is the most firepower they have ever had going into a season. A lot of people want to look to the past but I think they may be more wide open than they have been if guys like Moss and Stallworth play up to expectations. My biggest concern with the offense is the OC. I'm not a big Josh McDaniels fan. The playcalling has been too inconsistent the past two years. There have been too many plays that just don't make sense. Now, there have been injuries and the WR position wasn't pretty last year so it has not been an optimal situation. IMO if McDaniels matures in his position this offense could really be something to watch.
Do piggyback on my own post, I just saw this article today: http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patr...ded_they_stand/pretty much what I've been saying since his last 2 seasons playing here in Minny. The guys doesn't have the head to compensate for an aging body.
Borges has a reputation for almost being anti-Patriots and LOVES to stir the pot. Had someone else written this story, I would have given it more consideration. I still think that there is no way in god's green earth that anyone associated with the Raiders will come out and say anything good about Moss. It's just not going to happen.Why Oakland didn't just make this a non-story by saying they wish him well in the future and not air dirty laundry initially surprised me, but when have the Raiders ever been known for adhering to Miss Manners guidebook to proper etiquette and decorum?Do piggyback on my own post, I just saw this article today: http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patr...ded_they_stand/pretty much what I've been saying since his last 2 seasons playing here in Minny. The guys doesn't have the head to compensate for an aging body.
I would put Branch ahead of Stalworth all things considered. DJax is gone, afterall.MossBranchStallworthWelker (similar tier to Branch and Stallworth, but less upside)BrownGivens
While I do see your point and on the surface thier EOY performance has been close:
This is somthing like what will happen if the Pats have 50/50 run/pass balance.This could happen also if defenses choose to lay back in coverage an awful lot.
I agree on Hasselhoff. I simply feel Stallworth has a much lower downside than Branch, as Branch must succeed and produce WR1 numbers, whereas Stallworth is just a cog in the Pat's O machine. So I would think in terms of a floor of 35 catches for Stallworth and a floor for Branch of 65 catches. Color me conservative in my marginal WR1 / good WR2 picks.
I agree with this. It is possible that Stallworth will get lost in the croud.I think it is also possible that Hackett will be the Hawks #1 WR and get many more targets than Branch however.
Not even close if Moss scores 5 - 6 TD's i will be very surprised . He was one of the best but sorry he is finished but big time finished.
After reading your argument, I agree. You're probably right.
