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Player Spotlight: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Reggie Wayne Player Page

Each article will include:

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  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections
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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
More of the same. He's a classic. It is probably unrealistic to think that he will be the monster he was in PPR last year but he's still in that top 12-15 WR range. He has not relied on speed in his game for years. He makes his money in the way he runs routes and his hands and with Luck now at QB, I think Wayne could keep on keeping on for probably this year and the next at the same level.

Injuries? THe man has none since his rookie year. He has been THE most dependable WR for the last decade, literally. For the price you might be able to get him for in a dynasty where everyone wants the 25 year olds, I think he is an absolute bargain. In a redraft, I think he is probably actually harder to get value on because once the big young sexy names go off the board, it is REALLY hard to overlook Wayne in comparison to the next tier of guys.

With a totally new offense coming to town, Wayne's 2013 season is unlikely to look much like his 2012. The new offense is going to have more of a focus on the ground game and short routes. Luck probably won't throw the ball 627 times or focus downfield nearly as much. That doesn't mean doom and gloom for Wayne, though. He wasn't much of a downfield threat anyway. But he will see a sharp departure from his 195 targets last year. His 106 receptions seem like a lot, but he's caught 100 receptions on just 149 targets in the past. I don't expect Luck's second season to see that kind of efficiency upgrade, but he will do better than last year's 54% completion rate.

I think Wayne will still put together a solid season as the #1 target in the new offense. His ypr will continue its gradual decline, but bulk receptions will offset that a bit. I'm not expecting 1355 yard again, but at WR17, I don't think anyone else is. Wayne should be a solid, but unspectacular WR2 option for teams in 2013 that are looking to gamble on upside at other points in the draft. That's not the flavor I'll be looking for at the end of the 4th round, but I won't scoff at the selection.

150 targets x 60% = 90 rec x 12.5 ypr = 1125 yds 6 TD

150 targets x 60% = 90 rec x 12.5 ypr = 1125 yds 6 TD
I think those are reasonable numbers, although could see receptions more in the 80s on the high side.

As others have said Wayne has been as consistent as they come, producing no matter who has been throwing the ball since Manning left.

I mentioned in another thread, but I can't help but wonder if he goes the way of Torry Holt. That is, year after year of production before falling off the cliff after losing some ability to gain separation against younger, faster CBs. Not saying it will necessarily happen this year, but one has to think his production will wane. As for this year, I think between the previously mentioned commitment to the running game, as well as the emergence of Hilton, Luck will likely not force feed Wayne like he did last year. Thus, I see some, but maybe not a precipitous drop off.

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FWIW, Holt saw a steep decline in QB play as he got older. I don't think he was entirely to blame for his cliff-like performance drop. If anything, his last good season 93/1189/7 was a testament to his ability considering the StL QB position combined for 3559-18-28 (6.2 ypa). Ugh, makes me feel sorry for SJax as well. What a crappy team.

his 2nd half demise only looked bad because his first half was so prolific. His 2nd half numbers still come out to 90/1040/4 which is pretty good in ppr leagues.

I am not sure what to make of the new offense's impact on Wayne. In a likely heavy 2 TE alignment...and with 2 TEs who merit play...and with Hilton apparently behind DHB and running backs that don't figure to be huge targets, I doubt Wayne will see much if any erosion of targets. The precise timing routes that the new scheme favors plays to Wayne's strengths more than any other potential receiver absent a quantum leap in skills by Hilton. While the routes likely will be shallower with a corresponding decrease in yardage Wayne figures to be just outside WR1 in PPR once again.


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