Player Spotlight: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Rob Gronkowski Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[mphtrilogy]

12 games, 12 tds, 65 catches, 1100 yards

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think any projections made in this thread are going to be fairly useless, until we have more of an idea of when Gronk's season will get actually get underway.

I realize those that have early drafts will need to speculate as to his timetable and decide when the "risk" is worth taking, but for those that draft closer to the start of the season, we should just sit back and wait.

ETA: I know this was a fairly meaningless post, is fairly obvious and doesn't accomplish the goal these threads set out to achieve - but just throwing it out there.

 

[Gawain]

Per game averages of:

5.6 receptions, 70 yards, .75 TDs

So a full 16 game season gives:

90 receptions, 1120 yards, 12 TD

 

[Art Vandalay]

I think any projections made in this thread are going to be fairly useless, until we have more of an idea of when Gronk's season will get actually get underway.

I realize those that have early drafts will need to speculate as to his timetable and decide when the "risk" is worth taking, but for those that draft closer to the start of the season, we should just sit back and wait.

ETA: I know this was a fairly meaningless post, is fairly obvious and doesn't accomplish the goal these threads set out to achieve - but just throwing it out there.

I do agree at this point it is hard to project but thoughts for his usage when he is on the field / targets / how the loss of AH Welker affects him as well as divisional , injury concerns are worth a discussion. I am not the biggest Pats follower so would love to know other thoughts on this?

 

[ffguru56]

I'm in a dynasty league where I'm considering making a move to acquire him. Short term there are obviously question marks with his recent, and multiple, surgeries. I'm not banking on him missing the entire season due to whatever cause (re-injury, recovery setback, etc) but certainly do expect him to miss a few games based on the early reports right now. Even if he does start the season you have to question how much you trust him in your lineup. Not that a Gronk at 80% still isn't better than most TEs but perhaps that percentage is low enough where you do need to consider not starting him. As the season progresses I would feel confident in starting him over any TE.

I don't really see any issue long term with Gronk. He's a stud at his position that gives you a clear advantage over any team that doesn't have Graham. There are plenty of suitable backups to have in the event he remains injury prone throughout his career.

His per game receptions went from 5.6 (2011) to 7.1 (2012) the last two seasons. I'll take the rough, lower average of those and say he will get 6 receptions per game in 2013. Gronk averaged 14.7 (2011) and 14.4 (2012) yards per catch. Due to his injuries I'm going to say he starts off slower and less powerful so I'm dropping his YPC to 14. As a guess I'll say he misses the first 4 games of the season. He averages a td per game the last two seasons and I see no reason that changes this year, if anything it may be slightly higher with the lack of weapons in NE.

So:

12 games * 6 rec per * 14 YPC = 1008 yards and 12 tds.

Prorated: 16 games * 6 rec per * 14 YPC = 1344 yards and 16 tds.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Anyone buying low?

I recently dealt a 8th round pick for a 12 and Gronk in my 4 person ppr keeper league which IMO is just rape if he's even close to 100%. Since there's nothing recent to discuss I was wondering what anyone else was able to get ot give for him.

 

[gandalas]

I own him in 3 of my 6 dynasty leagues, and he is definitely a hold for me as an owner. I still view him as the 1A/1B option at the TE position, even more so with Hernandez departing the rankings.

 

[ratbast]

I will take Gronk at the end of the year and Zack Miller or any TE i pick up for the rest. He separates you from almost every team in your league.

At this point he could blow us away with his performance. Any TE that is almost guaranteed 10 tds is worth the risk. He is a top tier TE even if he only plays the second half!

12 games, 10+ TDs a boat load of catches and a boat load of yards.

I wish back in the day I bought into Gates or Gonzo. They were solid investments for a decade.

 

[Lucky Dolfan 81]

I just grabbed him with the 3.03 in a .5 ppr redraft. The guy has averaged about a TD per game played over the past 2 seasons. He will be a major part of the offense when he plays. Even if he misses the first 4 games of the season, I will be able to grab a decent stopgap cheap, and my team will come on strong towards the end of the year and during playoffs.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Any news or updates?

 

[BassNBrew]

Any news or updates?

Yup...but I'm going to hold out for a bigger audience.

 

[Pulp-Free O.J.]

I agree! I just have this strange feeling with Gronk that he is going to have an excellent season when he does finally return! He is a TD machine and with Hernandez gone, I just think he is going to be more consistent from game to game! If you can afford to have him on the bench at the beginning of the season, I feel your team makes a huge leap towards the end of the season and playoffs, which is what you want and need to win it all!

 

[JustinHawkins]

Rotoworld is speculating because he was in street clothes last night he will start the regular season on PUP and miss the first 6 games. Man I hope that's not true.

 

[finger11]

reading today an article where this similar back surgery put him out for 6 months after college, missing the combine by a month and having his own pro-day. 6 months would put him at week 16 or so to return.. =/

 

[Goldfinger007]

Gronk is by far my favorite TE in the league. I love how he plays the position, but I just can't bring myself to draft him this year. At least nowhere near where he is being drafted at this time.

 

[ffguru56]

I've tried to make a move for him in my dynasty league and even though the owner is willing to part, he still won't give him up for anything less than his value pre-injury. I wouldn't want to make a deal for him if the owner doesn't accept that his value has dropped because there is a lot of baggage to have to put up with this year.

 

[T with T]

I just grabbed him with the 3.03 in a .5 ppr redraft. The guy has averaged about a TD per game played over the past 2 seasons. He will be a major part of the offense when he plays. Even if he misses the first 4 games of the season, I will be able to grab a decent stopgap cheap, and my team will come on strong towards the end of the year and during playoffs.

I got Gronk in a 1 point per reception league in the 9th... You believe that, excellent value.

 

[T with T]

I just grabbed him with the 3.03 in a .5 ppr redraft. The guy has averaged about a TD per game played over the past 2 seasons. He will be a major part of the offense when he plays. Even if he misses the first 4 games of the season, I will be able to grab a decent stopgap cheap, and my team will come on strong towards the end of the year and during playoffs.

I got Gronk in a 1 point per reception league in the 9th... You believe that, excellent value.

12 team

 

[silentcoach]

went 4th in mine, which seems about right. But it looks like he will come back soon. The question will be whether he can STAY on the field.

Rob Gronkowski (back surgery) took part "extensively" in side drills at Patriots practice Monday.
Working with a strength coach in a t-shirt and shorts, Gronkowski caught passes and participated in agility drills. FOX Sports' Alex Marvez was on hand for the practice and observed Gronk moving "fluidly." The Boston Globe's Ben Volin described Gronkowski as "looking good" while going through short sprints "forward, backward, and sideways with cones." Although Gronk is expected to sit out Week 1, he remains on track for an early-season return. Aug 26 - 1:50 PM