Player Spotlight: Roddy White (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Roddy White Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[LBH]

I like his potential at the "Z" position in Mularkeys offense that saw H.Ward be a solid fantasy WR1. 80 1202 6 last year was pretty good. Hes a former 1st rd pick going into year 4.

90 1250 8

 

[DenverBroncos]

Ha ha, you have to be joking with those numbers.

65 900 6

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all.

45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all. 45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

Wouldn't a team that loses so much be forced to pass so much?

 

[broncofan13000]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all.

45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

Wasn't that the same last year?

 

[teamroc]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all. 45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

News flash, the Falcons were one of the worst teams in the last year. There is no going down, they were awful.Obviously you haven't projected out the whole offense. Even if they are historically bad, they'll throw for 2000 yards. Tell me who gets the other 1,300? At WORST, this is a Michael Clayton rookie year deal, he's the only guy to get the production, so he'll do quite well. They have no TEs, no WRs, Turner isn't great catching the ball. I've seen him up close, he's the real deal. You watch the Falcons practice, and he's the only play maker on the field. You can know nothing about football, and you'd still pick him out as the best player at practice. And it's not even close. Turner also looked pretty good.TDs are up in the air. At the bottom end, 70 catches. High end, 95+. 45 is laughable. You should always project out the offense first, that will correct a lot of the "ehhh I pulled this out after 30 seconds of looking at his stats from last year".

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all. 45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

News flash, the Falcons were one of the worst teams in the last year. There is no going down, they were awful.Obviously you haven't projected out the whole offense. Even if they are historically bad, they'll throw for 2000 yards. Tell me who gets the other 1,300? At WORST, this is a Michael Clayton rookie year deal, he's the only guy to get the production, so he'll do quite well. They have no TEs, no WRs, Turner isn't great catching the ball. I've seen him up close, he's the real deal. You watch the Falcons practice, and he's the only play maker on the field. You can know nothing about football, and you'd still pick him out as the best player at practice. And it's not even close. Turner also looked pretty good.TDs are up in the air. At the bottom end, 70 catches. High end, 95+. 45 is laughable. You should always project out the offense first, that will correct a lot of the "ehhh I pulled this out after 30 seconds of looking at his stats from last year".

Hey TR,I have said many times in here that I don't like to make projections. I mush prefer to look at the positives and negatives, make a band of numbers that I am comfortable with and then place the player into that bucket/tier. But I also appreciate these threads that Wood puts up and I want to join in the discussion. I certainly went for the floor with White but I see a major dip in production, and also despite last season, Atlanta is going to be worse...yes worse. I would say they are one of a couple teams that I think will have the 1.01 in next year's draft. I see nothing positive in Atlanta...and Roddy White, if he is the most talented WR, will not be sneaking up on anyone this season plus he likely has a rookie in Matt Ryan throwing him the ball.Does anyone have data on what WR1 numbers average out to with a rookie throwing the football? Has to be not good. And you're argument about what he did last season...poker analogy coming...just because you crack pocket AA with J-10 offsuit doesn't mean it's a good idea to go in with that everytime. Thanks,MOP

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I don't like the change of offense from pass-first to run-first (as it appears to be right now). Roddy White should still get his but I'm not sure it'll be as much as last season. He played well with 3 different starting quarterbacks last season. If/when Matt Ryan starts for the Falcons if he isn't a complete disaster he should be able to at least get the ball to White.

He wasn't in a great situation last season and put up numbers but I think it got worse. Still if his value falls to the level of say where a late#2/early #3 wr would be drafted I think he's worth the risk.

 

[bucksoh]

not looking good form Roddy with a rook starting at Qb so he won't produce huge numbersbut he should come close to cracking 1000 with4-6 TDs

 

[fightingillini]

Roddy White has shown he's a legit WR. But with a rookie throwing him the rock, stat-wise he will regress this year.

70 rec, 1000 yds, 6 TD

 

[travdogg]

Personally I think Matt Ryan will be an improvement on what they had last year. Atlanta is still a year away from being competitive so there will likely be garbage time stats aplenty for White.

90-1200-8, according to what many think, White looks like an excellent buy-low in a dynasty league.

 

[LBH]

Personally I think Matt Ryan will be an improvement on what they had last year. Atlanta is still a year away from being competitive so there will likely be garbage time stats aplenty for White.90-1200-8, according to what many think, White looks like an excellent buy-low in a dynasty league.

glad Im not the only one seeing that

 

[vandyt]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all.

45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

Obviously you haven't projected out the whole offense. Even if they are historically bad, they'll throw for 2000 yards. Tell me who gets the other 1,300?

Well, Michael Jenkins(500 yds last year), Laurent Robinson(400 as a rookie), Harry Douglas (can he replace the lofty 200 yards Joe Horn produced?)

Michael Turner(should get 200+), Jerious Norwood (277 rec yards last year).

At TE, Ben Hartsock and Martrez Milner, should combine for at least 300 yards, even if they are mostly blockers.

 

[vandyt]

Personally I think Matt Ryan will be an improvement on what they had last year. Atlanta is still a year away from being competitive so there will likely be garbage time stats aplenty for White.90-1200-8, according to what many think, White looks like an excellent buy-low in a dynasty league.

Matt Ryan has the potential to be a great QB. But he A) will be a rookie in a run-heavy offense, and B) will not be nearly as good at running Mike Mularkey's offense as Chris Redman was at running Bobby Petrino's offense. I'm a big Roddy fan, but 70 catches this year will be a great season for him.70-995-5

 

[LBH]

Personally I think Matt Ryan will be an improvement on what they had last year. Atlanta is still a year away from being competitive so there will likely be garbage time stats aplenty for White.

90-1200-8, according to what many think, White looks like an excellent buy-low in a dynasty league.

Matt Ryan has the potential to be a great QB. But he A) will be a rookie in a run-heavy offense, and B) will not be nearly as good at running Mike Mularkey's offense as Chris Redman was at running Bobby Petrino's offense.

I'm a big Roddy fan, but 70 catches this year will be a great season for him.

70-995-5

a run heavy Mularkey offense worked well for H.Ward. We dont know that Ryan will run this offense worse than Redman ran Petrinos offense. I dont think the passing will be as spread out to other recievers this season as it was under Petrino, and believe more passes will go to White, and to a lesser extent Robinson. Even in a run heavy offense the QB is going to have to throw the ball, especially in the 4th quarter as I believe Atlanta will be trailing often. I see White as a younger version of Ward, and Robinson as a less talented version of Burress. White said he was moving around a lot more in this offense and expected more receptions and TDs.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...;hl=Roddy+White

Since I own him in a couple of leagues Im going to choose to believe him

 

[TaxMan]

last season, ATL QBs threw 560 pass attempts, and ROddy had about 140 targets. No way that gets duplicated this year.

I see around 480 pass attempts max, with Roddy getting around 120 targets. At 60% conversion rate, that's around 70 rec.

i'll go for 70-1000, 5-6 TDs.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Joey Harrington started 10 games last year, and Leftwich started 2. How is Roddy White going to produce without the stellar QB play he had last year?

 

[rzrback77]

Several factors why Roddy White most likely will not be on my team in 08. There is another new QB and offensive system in town which usually takes some time to polish. The Falcons are really going to try to run more in 08. Last year they threw 555 passes and ran only 354 times. They replaced Warrick Dunn with Michael Turner and I definitely see an increase in rushing with a substantial decrease in the pass attempts. The decrease in attempts coupled with the QB quality projects that the rookie will start sooner rather than later and I am not a huge fan of Mr. Ryans. I just see a lot of downturn potential. I also am not a huge supporter of Roddy White. After two seasons of 29 and 30 catches, he zoomed up to 83 last year. However, there are a few other young options at WR and I see both Norwood and Turner more involved in the passing attack.

Furthermore, his current ADP is 65 and WR 24. Just don't see a repeat and I think that he will struggle to perform up to WR 30.

Roddy White 110 targets 63 receptions for 756 yards 12.0 ypc and 5 TDs

 

[Ministry of Pain]

White said he was moving around a lot more in this offense and expected more receptions and TDs.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...;hl=Roddy+White

Since I own him in a couple of leagues Im going to choose to believe him

"And if he told you Wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe him?"

 

[LBH]

White said he was moving around a lot more in this offense and expected more receptions and TDs.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...;hl=Roddy+White

Since I own him in a couple of leagues Im going to choose to believe him

"And if he told you Wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe him?"

Im going to go way out on a limb here and say he is more of an authority on his skills and his usage in his own offense than he is on domesticating wild animals.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

White said he was moving around a lot more in this offense and expected more receptions and TDs.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...;hl=Roddy+White

Since I own him in a couple of leagues Im going to choose to believe him

"And if he told you Wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe him?"

Im going to go way out on a limb here and say he is more of an authority on his skills and his usage in his own offense than he is on domesticating wild animals.

Freddie Mitchell had people believing he was a superstar too. What WR that starts in the National Football League doesn't say great things about themselves?

 

[Bri]

Matt Ryan isn't exactly replacing Joe Montana

 

[LBH]

White said he was moving around a lot more in this offense and expected more receptions and TDs.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...;hl=Roddy+White

Since I own him in a couple of leagues Im going to choose to believe him

"And if he told you Wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe him?"

Im going to go way out on a limb here and say he is more of an authority on his skills and his usage in his own offense than he is on domesticating wild animals.

Freddie Mitchell had people believing he was a superstar too. What WR that starts in the National Football League doesn't say great things about themselves?

Freddie Mitchell could only have had a season like the one Roddy White had last year if it was in a dream. I understand players sometimes talk highly about themselves, Im more convinced of his talent+situation thoughPS-I dont think Mitchell had anybody believing that. Certainly not me

 

[Jon_Moore]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all. 45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

News flash, the Falcons were one of the worst teams in the last year. There is no going down, they were awful.Obviously you haven't projected out the whole offense. Even if they are historically bad, they'll throw for 2000 yards. Tell me who gets the other 1,300? At WORST, this is a Michael Clayton rookie year deal, he's the only guy to get the production, so he'll do quite well. They have no TEs, no WRs, Turner isn't great catching the ball. I've seen him up close, he's the real deal. You watch the Falcons practice, and he's the only play maker on the field. You can know nothing about football, and you'd still pick him out as the best player at practice. And it's not even close. Turner also looked pretty good.TDs are up in the air. At the bottom end, 70 catches. High end, 95+. 45 is laughable. You should always project out the offense first, that will correct a lot of the "ehhh I pulled this out after 30 seconds of looking at his stats from last year".

Hey TR,I have said many times in here that I don't like to make projections. I mush prefer to look at the positives and negatives, make a band of numbers that I am comfortable with and then place the player into that bucket/tier. But I also appreciate these threads that Wood puts up and I want to join in the discussion. I certainly went for the floor with White but I see a major dip in production, and also despite last season, Atlanta is going to be worse...yes worse. I would say they are one of a couple teams that I think will have the 1.01 in next year's draft. I see nothing positive in Atlanta...and Roddy White, if he is the most talented WR, will not be sneaking up on anyone this season plus he likely has a rookie in Matt Ryan throwing him the ball.Does anyone have data on what WR1 numbers average out to with a rookie throwing the football? Has to be not good. And you're argument about what he did last season...poker analogy coming...just because you crack pocket AA with J-10 offsuit doesn't mean it's a good idea to go in with that everytime. Thanks,MOP

I've disagreed with you a couple of times on the board recently, please don't feel that I'm trying to be a tool towards you. That said, Your poker analogy says it all, IMO. White would be like a jack/10. However, you don't have to put all your chips in the middle of the table to draft White. According to FBG's ADP, he's going off the board at 65 overall, the 24th WR. In a 12 team league, he's going in roughly the 6th round...quite possibly a WR3. Maybe he shoots up the boards closer to the season, but right now, I don't feel he's a reach.

 

[vandyt]

Matt Ryan isn't exactly replacing Joe Montana

Mike Mularkey/Mark Smith are replacing Petrino though. Petrino nearly made Joey H a fantasy factor, and made Chris Redman a factor in the fantasy playoffs.His offense was mediocre overall, but its foolish to overlook how changing from a wide-open passing offense to a run heavy offense will affect White.

 

[Jon_Moore]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.

88 Receptions

1,320 Yards

6 Touchdowns.

 

[Bri]

Matt Ryan isn't exactly replacing Joe Montana

Mike Mularkey/Mark Smith are replacing Petrino though. Petrino nearly made Joey H a fantasy factor, and made Chris Redman a factor in the fantasy playoffs.His offense was mediocre overall, but its foolish to overlook how changing from a wide-open passing offense to a run heavy offense will affect White.

that theory is a myth. Very good players play well no matter what the system is.When the Bus was pounding away, Plax and Ward did just fine.How about the Boys with Emmitt and Irvin?Jamal pounded it alot last year and Winslow and Braylon did well.TD and Easy ED+RodThere's tons of examples.A good running game does not stop a WR from doing well, if anything it helps them and they feed off each other with the D not being able to key on one facet of the O

 

[vandyt]

Matt Ryan isn't exactly replacing Joe Montana

Mike Mularkey/Mark Smith are replacing Petrino though. Petrino nearly made Joey H a fantasy factor, and made Chris Redman a factor in the fantasy playoffs.

His offense was mediocre overall, but its foolish to overlook how changing from a wide-open passing offense to a run heavy offense will affect White.

that theory is a myth. Very good players play well no matter what the system is.When the Bus was pounding away, Plax and Ward did just fine.

How about the Boys with Emmitt and Irvin?

Jamal pounded it alot last year and Winslow and Braylon did well.

TD and Easy ED+Rod

There's tons of examples.

A good running game does not stop a WR from doing well, if anything it helps them and they feed off each other with the D not being able to key on one facet of the O

Random anecdotal facts do not disprove a theory.If Atlanta A) throws less, B) throws shorter routes (as mularkey's offenses tend to do) and C) has a less experienced QB starting, all the random anecdotal facts you can throw out isnt going to make Roddy hit his #s from last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.88 Receptions1,320 Yards6 Touchdowns.

JM,How many WR year in and year out catch 80-90 balls routinely? Run those numbers and I think you'll see why some of us have a hard time with accepting White into that Fraternity of WR.MOP

 

[Jon_Moore]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.88 Receptions1,320 Yards6 Touchdowns.

JM,How many WR year in and year out catch 80-90 balls routinely? Run those numbers and I think you'll see why some of us have a hard time with accepting White into that Fraternity of WR.MOP

It's a valid point, but looking at how he did it last year, it's hard to believe he's not an elite talent. The quarterback situation really can't be worse. If nothing else, he can develop some sort of a rapport with Ryan, that's obviously difficult to do with 3 separate quarterbacks.

 

[rzrback77]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.88 Receptions1,320 Yards6 Touchdowns.

JM,How many WR year in and year out catch 80-90 balls routinely? Run those numbers and I think you'll see why some of us have a hard time with accepting White into that Fraternity of WR.MOP

It's a valid point, but looking at how he did it last year, it's hard to believe he's not an elite talent. The quarterback situation really can't be worse. If nothing else, he can develop some sort of a rapport with Ryan, that's obviously difficult to do with 3 separate quarterbacks.

Did you look at what he did the two previous years before last year? 29 in 05 and 30 in 06.

 

[Bri]

Matt Ryan isn't exactly replacing Joe Montana

Mike Mularkey/Mark Smith are replacing Petrino though. Petrino nearly made Joey H a fantasy factor, and made Chris Redman a factor in the fantasy playoffs.

His offense was mediocre overall, but its foolish to overlook how changing from a wide-open passing offense to a run heavy offense will affect White.

that theory is a myth. Very good players play well no matter what the system is.When the Bus was pounding away, Plax and Ward did just fine.

How about the Boys with Emmitt and Irvin?

Jamal pounded it alot last year and Winslow and Braylon did well.

TD and Easy ED+Rod

There's tons of examples.

A good running game does not stop a WR from doing well, if anything it helps them and they feed off each other with the D not being able to key on one facet of the O

Random anecdotal facts do not disprove a theory.If Atlanta A) throws less, B) throws shorter routes (as mularkey's offenses tend to do) and C) has a less experienced QB starting, all the random anecdotal facts you can throw out isnt going to make Roddy hit his #s from last year.

Nothing random or anectdotal about resultsA-Who said they'd throw less?

B- Doesn't matter, Rice thrived in short routes, Welker had an amazing year last year with short routes, plenty of examples again.

C- You could probably count the Joey H and Redman fans on one hand and Ryan is a downgrade?

Go ahead give me examples of your theory being true

 

[Jon_Moore]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.88 Receptions1,320 Yards6 Touchdowns.

JM,How many WR year in and year out catch 80-90 balls routinely? Run those numbers and I think you'll see why some of us have a hard time with accepting White into that Fraternity of WR.MOP

It's a valid point, but looking at how he did it last year, it's hard to believe he's not an elite talent. The quarterback situation really can't be worse. If nothing else, he can develop some sort of a rapport with Ryan, that's obviously difficult to do with 3 separate quarterbacks.

Did you look at what he did the two previous years before last year? 29 in 05 and 30 in 06.

Is there a point? Did you expect a 1st year receiver to come in and grab 80? An elite talent can take a few years to catch on just like anybody. Don't forget this was his first year without an all world sprinter at QB.

 

[puckalicious]

With an ADP of WR24 I will draft him in every league as a WR3 that puts up WR2, possibly WR1 numbers. Don't put too much stock in the "run heavy" offense. Once ATL gets destroyed in the 1st half of games, they will gladly air it out and play catch up. White has already proved his talent level by what he did last year on a horrible team with a new coach, QB's, and playbook. This year, same situation, expect same results.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Redraft bust and a sell uber high in Dynasty Leagues. The OL is bottom 3-5, the QB is bottom 3, the defense will be bottom 3, this team is going to make a run at 1-15, 2-14, they are awful. I cannot see him doing well at all.

45/700/5 TD...that's if he is lucky.

Since when does a bad defense hurt WR's numbers? Also, the QB and team cant be any worse than last year.

I'll take the over on your numbers, want to take the bet?

86, 1285, 9

 

[Ministry of Pain]

With an ADP of WR24 I will draft him in every league as a WR3 that puts up WR2, possibly WR1 numbers. Don't put too much stock in the "run heavy" offense. Once ATL gets destroyed in the 1st half of games, they will gladly air it out and play catch up. White has already proved his talent level by what he did last year on a horrible team with a new coach, QB's, and playbook. This year, same situation, expect same results.

And throw a lot of interceptions. Atlanta will lose games by 20-30 points a lot of weeks...they have to run the ball in order to shorten the game and protect a very bad passing attack.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Overvalued to say the least. Drafting him at his ADP is dangerous.

68/875/7

 

[Tanner9919]

Ha ha, you have to be joking with those numbers. 65 900 6

even those #'s seem high..two words: Mike Mularkey... 55/660/3big learning curve for Matt Ryan..lousy coaching staff..

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Roddy White caught 83 balls and 1200 yards on a terrible offense last year. He's coming into his 4th year, he's on a team where they're still trying to get over the thoughts of Vick and the talk for this season is on what could be a much improved running attack.

I see value in Roddy White. He represents value if he just duplicates what he did last season. It's easy to say you're going to be a running team heading into the season or a given game, but if you find yourself down early in the game, it's another thing to keep running the ball.

White is by far their best receiver and although I'm not liking their current QB situation heading into the season, I know either is anyone else which will lower the ADP for White which will = value.

80 receptions for 1150 and 8 td's

 

[puckalicious]

With an ADP of WR24 I will draft him in every league as a WR3 that puts up WR2, possibly WR1 numbers. Don't put too much stock in the "run heavy" offense. Once ATL gets destroyed in the 1st half of games, they will gladly air it out and play catch up. White has already proved his talent level by what he did last year on a horrible team with a new coach, QB's, and playbook. This year, same situation, expect same results.

And throw a lot of interceptions. Atlanta will lose games by 20-30 points a lot of weeks...they have to run the ball in order to shorten the game and protect a very bad passing attack.

ATL QB's threw 15 INT's last year. It's not like that number is going to double (but is certainly possible). Could easily be up around 20 though. Either way, I don't see that really changing White's projections very much at all.My point is that on a very bad team last year, White finished around WR 12-15 depending on format. The wheels would have to completely fall off for both the team and White for him to finish outside WR25, which I just don't see happening. ATL as a team doesn't really have much farther down to fall.

As for the QB situation, you really think Ryan is going to be worse than Harrington? If he's that bad, Redman will be the starter which worked OK last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Roddy White caught 83 balls and 1200 yards on a terrible offense last year. He's coming into his 4th year, he's on a team where they're still trying to get over the thoughts of Vick and the talk for this season is on what could be a much improved running attack.I see value in Roddy White. He represents value if he just duplicates what he did last season. It's easy to say you're going to be a running team heading into the season or a given game, but if you find yourself down early in the game, it's another thing to keep running the ball.White is by far their best receiver and although I'm not liking their current QB situation heading into the season, I know either is anyone else which will lower the ADP for White which will = value.80 receptions for 1150 and 8 td's

If everyoine just duplicated their numbers from the year before, we would all win every league we play in...and it would be kinda boring. Again, I emphasize that the number of WR that catch 80-90 balls year in and year out are far and few between. You all are suggesting he is in the same company as guys like Donald Driver, Marques Colston, Harrison in his prime, Chad Johnson, Owens, and Steve Smith.Here are teams with much better offenses that can't produce WR1 numbers consistenly...NY Giants, Philly, Seattle, San Diego, New England(before Moss)...Atlanta is the suxor for offenses...great, White surprised everyone last year so let's keep penciling him in for 80-1,200-8 TD in an incredibly bad offense. He did it once, no reason he won't do it again, right? Like I said earlier, just because you can accomplish a great feat once with the deck stacked against you, doesn't mean its a good idea to keep doing it.You drink and drive, but are not pulled over and do not get arrested. Does that make it a good idea to continue? I could go on and on, but I can see a lot of people are high on White. Should we just replicate the top25-30 WR from a year ago? Because that always works, right?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

With an ADP of WR24 I will draft him in every league as a WR3 that puts up WR2, possibly WR1 numbers. Don't put too much stock in the "run heavy" offense. Once ATL gets destroyed in the 1st half of games, they will gladly air it out and play catch up. White has already proved his talent level by what he did last year on a horrible team with a new coach, QB's, and playbook. This year, same situation, expect same results.

And throw a lot of interceptions. Atlanta will lose games by 20-30 points a lot of weeks...they have to run the ball in order to shorten the game and protect a very bad passing attack.

ATL QB's threw 15 INT's last year. It's not like that number is going to double (but is certainly possible). Could easily be up around 20 though. Either way, I don't see that really changing White's projections very much at all.My point is that on a very bad team last year, White finished around WR 12-15 depending on format. The wheels would have to completely fall off for both the team and White for him to finish outside WR25, which I just don't see happening. ATL as a team doesn't really have much farther down to fall.

As for the QB situation, you really think Ryan is going to be worse than Harrington? If he's that bad, Redman will be the starter which worked OK last year.

Matt Ryan threw 19 interceptions as a Senior...

 

[Jon_Moore]

With an ADP of WR24 I will draft him in every league as a WR3 that puts up WR2, possibly WR1 numbers. Don't put too much stock in the "run heavy" offense. Once ATL gets destroyed in the 1st half of games, they will gladly air it out and play catch up. White has already proved his talent level by what he did last year on a horrible team with a new coach, QB's, and playbook. This year, same situation, expect same results.

And throw a lot of interceptions. Atlanta will lose games by 20-30 points a lot of weeks...they have to run the ball in order to shorten the game and protect a very bad passing attack.

Most teams that lose by 20-30 points start airing it out ALOT. But, Atlanta is going to lose by 20-30 AND pound the rock all game? Roddy is pretty screwed...

 

[Longrifle]

He will be the only bright spot (but not much of one) for an ATL team that will be bad this season.

Receptions 66

Receiving Yards 858

Receiving TDs 8

 

[Team Legacy]

This year, Atlanta has a new head coach and a run first philosophy . Atlanta is in the ballpark of teams who will throw for around 3,000 total yards this year and 12-15 TDs. Roddy's yardage will be somewhere between 800 and 1000 yards this year and 5-7 Touchdowns. Yes he had a great year, but he will take a hit this year simply due to the offensive changes in philosophy.

64 900 and 6 TDs.

 

[GSWarriors]

question is how many total pass attempts will ATL have, considering they will be most certainly behind in a lot of games

how many total targets will Roddy have? no more pass catching TE, a 2nd year WR2, a rookie slot WR, and a new starting RB who we dont know can catch the ball effectively, though Norwood may fill that role.

 

[rzrback77]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.88 Receptions1,320 Yards6 Touchdowns.

JM,How many WR year in and year out catch 80-90 balls routinely? Run those numbers and I think you'll see why some of us have a hard time with accepting White into that Fraternity of WR.MOP

It's a valid point, but looking at how he did it last year, it's hard to believe he's not an elite talent. The quarterback situation really can't be worse. If nothing else, he can develop some sort of a rapport with Ryan, that's obviously difficult to do with 3 separate quarterbacks.

Did you look at what he did the two previous years before last year? 29 in 05 and 30 in 06.

Is there a point? Did you expect a 1st year receiver to come in and grab 80? An elite talent can take a few years to catch on just like anybody. Don't forget this was his first year without an all world sprinter at QB.

We are all used to seeing WRs have up and down years. White has 29 catches in his first year, then 30 in his second. His third year he breaks out and catches 83. Now he's in a new offense with a new coach known to stress the running game and you don't see any possibility of a drop in production for him? I think there is quite a bit to be concerned about if expecting White to repeat his 07 numbers.

 

[LBH]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.88 Receptions1,320 Yards6 Touchdowns.

JM,How many WR year in and year out catch 80-90 balls routinely? Run those numbers and I think you'll see why some of us have a hard time with accepting White into that Fraternity of WR.MOP

It's a valid point, but looking at how he did it last year, it's hard to believe he's not an elite talent. The quarterback situation really can't be worse. If nothing else, he can develop some sort of a rapport with Ryan, that's obviously difficult to do with 3 separate quarterbacks.

Did you look at what he did the two previous years before last year? 29 in 05 and 30 in 06.

Is there a point? Did you expect a 1st year receiver to come in and grab 80? An elite talent can take a few years to catch on just like anybody. Don't forget this was his first year without an all world sprinter at QB.

We are all used to seeing WRs have up and down years. White has 29 catches in his first year, then 30 in his second. His third year he breaks out and catches 83. Now he's in a new offense with a new coach known to stress the running game and you don't see any possibility of a drop in production for him? I think there is quite a bit to be concerned about if expecting White to repeat his 07 numbers.

Those are all legit reasons to be concerned, but there are also reasons to be optimistic. Mularkey has produced very good fantasy WRs in his offense in H.Ward and P.Burress while he was with the Steelers.

 

[Jon_Moore]

In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.88 Receptions1,320 Yards6 Touchdowns.

JM,How many WR year in and year out catch 80-90 balls routinely? Run those numbers and I think you'll see why some of us have a hard time with accepting White into that Fraternity of WR.MOP

It's a valid point, but looking at how he did it last year, it's hard to believe he's not an elite talent. The quarterback situation really can't be worse. If nothing else, he can develop some sort of a rapport with Ryan, that's obviously difficult to do with 3 separate quarterbacks.

Did you look at what he did the two previous years before last year? 29 in 05 and 30 in 06.

Is there a point? Did you expect a 1st year receiver to come in and grab 80? An elite talent can take a few years to catch on just like anybody. Don't forget this was his first year without an all world sprinter at QB.

We are all used to seeing WRs have up and down years. White has 29 catches in his first year, then 30 in his second. His third year he breaks out and catches 83. Now he's in a new offense with a new coach known to stress the running game and you don't see any possibility of a drop in production for him? I think there is quite a bit to be concerned about if expecting White to repeat his 07 numbers.

I just don't see what his 1st 2 years stats have to do with much of anything. Of course there's reason for concern with him. But, after the top so many guys, there's reason for concern with everyone. Steve Smith's a different beast with DelhommeRoy Williams can't stay healthyChad Johnson is coming off ankle surgeryBraylon Edwards may see balls from Brady Quinn at some point this yearThe fact is, last year, I had no reason to be optomistic about Roddy White, none. He broke out big time. The situation seems better for him this year, than it did a year ago. So, why in the world would I be down on him when he showed he can do it in a worser situation?