Player Spotlight: Roy Williams (1 Viewer)

[CBower4545]

I just wanted to address the main criticism I have seen of Roy Williams. Figured this would be the place to do it.

1) Workload Roy will not receive enough targets to be successful for reasons including

-Witten will be clearly the top option

- Barber and company will be more involved in the passing game

-Dallas will run more in 09

2)Roy played badly in a Mike Martz offense so don't expect the Dallas situation to be better

3) Roy will get injured

4) Roy sucked in 08

1)In the past 5 years a TE has had more targets then the top WR on his team 16 times.

Gates 07 117 WRs VJAX 80 / Chris Chambers 63

Gates 06 119 WRs Eric Parker 70 / Keenan McCardell 51

Gates 05 140 WRs Keenan McCardell 108 / Eric Parker 80

Gates 04 111 WRs Eric Parker 71 (13 G) / Keenan McCardell 57 ( 7 G)

Heap 06 116 WRs Mason 112 / Clayton 114

Gonzo 07 154 WR Bowe 117 / Web 58

Gonzo 06 103 WR Kennisen 101 / Parker 68

Gonzo 05 116 WR Kennisen 108 / Parker 58

Gonzo 04 143 WR Kennisen 102 (14G) / Morton 76

Gonzo 03 106 WR Kennison 99 / Morton 92

Gonzo 02 97 WR Kennison 91 / Morton 91

Z Miller 08 86 WR Curry 47 / Higgins 42

A Crumpler 06 103 WR Jenkins 84 / White 64

A Crumpler 05 118 WR Finneran 81 / Jenkins 71

J Wiggins 05 91 WR T Taylor 90 / M Robinson 57

LJ Smith 05 107 G Lewis 105 / TO 92 (7 games)

Of those 16 only 8 were clearly the #1 option. most were 1a / 1b relationships. VJax did not emerge as a legitimate receiver until 08 and when he did he received more targets then Gates. VJax 101 to 92 for Gates. Parker and 34 to 37 year old McCardell simply don't compare to Roy. Even teams with good TE do not make them clear option ones by choice. Even Gonzo and Kennison were 1a and 1b for almost their entire time together. Gonzo is one of the best off all time and even the Roy skeptic would take Roy over Kennison. Looking at the names on this list it's pretty obvious that if a TE is the clear #1 option it is because of some combination of of quality TE, lack of WR talent, WR injuries, and overall luck. Being a great TE is not enough of a reason for a TE to be the clear #1 option

Now lets look at passing distribution. SD has been used as a comparison, but I don't think it is really that good.

VJax Targ/G TPG % Team Pass Att Gates TPG % Other WRs % RB %

2008 101/16 6.3 21% SD 478 92/16 5.75 19% 119 25% 138 29%

Lets say Dallas throws about 510 times. That would leave Witten catching 64 passes (66% catch% with 19% of targets), for Roy about 60, 69 or so receptions for other wrs, and about 115 for Barber and company. That would find Barber most likely in the 70's of receptions putting him in with Bush, Westbrook, Tomlinson, SJAX. That doesn't add up to me. Barber has been in Dallas for years and they have never used him that much. J Jones was used in the passing game in addition to Barber, even adding extra backs into the mix doesn't explain such a dramtaic increase. Witten and Roy are just too low and the RBs would be just too high.

Let's look at the Dallas Pass distribution over the last four years.

DAL #1 Targ/G TPG Team Pass Att Witten TPG % Other WRs % RB %

2008 140 / 16 8.8 27% DAL 547 121 / 16 7.5 22% 138 25% 96 18%

2007 141 / 16 8.8 27% DAL 531 141/ 16 8.8 26% 129 24% 86 16%

2006 151 / 16 9.4 30% DAL 506 93 / 16 5.8 18% 169 33% 55 11%

2005 123 / 16 7.6 25% DAL 500 89 /16 5.6 18% 166 34% 92 18%

(Keyshawn got 25% in 2005 and With Glenn in 2005 & 2006 WRs other WRs got over 30% in 2008 other WRs targets were boosted by Roy coming in get an additional 42)

What jumps out at me is that Witten's targets climbed with the loss of Glenn. An old at the end of his career Keyshawn was able to get 25% of the team targets. Without Glenn Dallas has not thrown as much to their other Wrs, b/c the talent just has not been there. Dallas has never used their RBs even close to as much as SD in 08.

I expect dallas to run more and throw to their RBs more but theres is alot of room for improvement without going crazy. I think in 09 they will compare better with Washington, who also has a strong TE, Unquestioned #1 WR, pass catching RB, strong defense, and a commitment to the run.

S. Moss Targ/G TPG % Team Pass Att Cooley TPG % Other WRs % RB %

2005 134 / 16 8.4 27% Wash 481 103 / 16 6.5 21% 111  23% 78 16%

2006 101 / 14 7.2 25% Wash 470 95/ 16 5.9 20% 144 31% 114 24%

2007 115 / 14 8.2 25% Wash 525 110/ 16 6.8 21% 159 30% 116 22%

2008 138 / 16 8.6 27% Wash 510 111/ 16 6.9 22% 147 29% 88 17%

I See Dallas doing something like this

Roy 26% Witten 24% Other WRs 23% RBs 21%

Roy gets somewhere more towards Keyshawn then TO, right in line with what you would expect for S. Moss. Witten's targets % goes up from 2008 as well as the RBs getting more involved. With Roy gone from the other WRs group and RBs getting more involved you see a small downtick from the past two years. RBs targets go up to a year high.

I can find anything that relates specifically to number of plays, not yards, rushing, passing, scoring, defense or any one thing. The best idea I got is to take the NFL average and go from there.

NFL AVG Plays

2008 990

2007 1004

2006 1000

2005 1000

AVG Plays 998.5

Dallas Run Distribution

Dallas 08 979 547 56% 401 41%

Dallas 07 975 531 55% 419 43%

Dallas 06 1015 506 50% 472 47%

Dallas 05 1071 500 47% 521 49%

I thin you will see Dallas return to the run more. But I doubt they will go to Bill Parcells territory. In 05 Dallas had Bledsoe and a green Romo in 06. Plus Parcells is known for running the ball. My projection.

Dallas 09 52% pass to 46% run

Given 998.5 plays thats 519 pass attempts

Roy 26% 135 targets

Witten 24% 125 targets

Other WRs 23% 119 targets

RBs 21% 109 targets

2)Roy played badly in a Mike Martz offense so don't expect the Dallas situation to be better

First Roy did play well under Martz and did improve from pre-Martz. There is some part of that which is probably do to situation.

Pre - Martz 9.2 PPG

Martz 10.3 PPG

But let's evaluate how good of a passing offense it's been in Detroit with Martz. How a good an offensive situation has more involved then just attempts. How efficient an offense is, how much they score, and how many yards the rack up are all important.

So lets look at Detroit, Dallas, and the average over the last three years.

Det attempts pass yards points NY/a

2008 509 2690 268 5.3

2007 587 3878 346 6.0

2006 596 3820 305 5.8

AVG attempts pass yards points NY/a

2008 516 3380 352 6.2

2007 532 3428 347 6.0

2006 512 3276 330 6.0

Dallas attempts pass yards points NY/a

2008 547 3789 362 6.6

2007 531 4105 455 7.4

2006 506 3836 425 7.1

So Dallas has been exceedingly more efficient, a much better scorer, and even had more passing yards then Detroit under Martz. In fact Martz's passing offenses were average or below in both efficiency and scoring. When you figure that the increase in pass attempts for Roy 9.2 (under martz) versus our projection of 8.4, lets assume catch % is a constant and multiply the numbers out to see which is more valuable.

( just a note I don't think it's fair to give TO all credit for Dallas's team numbers one WR does not make a team. Calvin Johnson is a incredible WR and had a great season but without people around him Detroit was one of the worst offenses in the league)

(9.2 * 16) * 5.9 = 868.48

(8.4 * 16) * 7.0 = 940.8

It's obvious it's better to be on the more efficient team even with just yards. But this doesn't take into account catch %.

I think the two biggest things to improve for Roy vs being Detroit would be catch % and Scoring rate.

QB Roy's catch %

Harrington 48%

Kitna 56%

(as already pointed out)

Romo 57% (my projected)

Last year when R Moss lost Brady you saw his catch % drop significantly 07.

159 to 98 - 61.6% - with Brady

126 to 69 - 54.7% - with Cassel

I think catch % is one place having a better QB can make a difference. Now when looking at Dallas you have noticed they have been a much better the even Detroit Martz lead offense. Detroit 20 PPG Martz vs Dallas 26 PPG. It's reasonable to conclude some of those extra points will fall Roy's way. Roy Average .51 tds per game in detroit as a #1 WR so saying an increase to .55 tds per game doesn't seem like a big stretch.

Final Projection 135 targets 57% caught 77 reception 15.6 Y/R .55 tds per game

1201 yards 9 tds for 174 FBG fantasy points.

3) Roy will get injured

Ok so i looked through Roy's injury history as best I could and have amended it at the bottom to reflect his actual injuries. He has had Planter Fascia, Right knee sprain, back stinger, slight hamstring "pull", an undisclosed hip injury, and a Qaud Strain. The kind of injuries he has had are minor injuries and they seem to be different injuries rather then a few chronic injuries. I can't find where he has had any major surgeries.

It seems he has suffered from injuries that can be prevent to a certain degree by proper conditioning. Suffering from Sprains, Strains, and Planter Fascia is starting to paint a picture of a player who has not been conditioning himself properly. That pattern is discouraging but it is correctable too. I don't know for a fact that dallas has better facilities, trainers and so forth but I would think they do. So I would think the move to Dallas would give us a reason to believe Roy can correct this problem going into 09.

Dec 26, 2008 Foot - Planter Fascia

Dec 19, 2008 Foot - Planter Fascia

Dec 12, 2008 Foot - Planter Fascia

Dec 10, 2008 0 Foot - Planter Fascia

Dec 05, 2008 Foot - Planter Fascia

Oct 10, 2008 Hip

Oct 03, 2008 Knee - Sprain

Dec 19, 2007 0 Right knee - Sprain

Dec 19, 2007 48 Right knee - Sprain

Dec 14, 2007 Knee -Sprain

Dec 07, 2007 Knee -Sprain

Dec 02, 2007 0 right knee - Sprain

Aug 19, 2007 0 Hamstring - "Pull"

Oct 11, 2006 Back - back Stinger

Oct 10, 2006 0 Shoulder/neck - back Stinger

Nov 09, 2005 Quadricep Qaud Strain

Nov 02, 2005 Quadricep - Quad Strain

Oct 28, 2005 Quadricep - Quad Strain

Oct 19, 2005 Quadricep - Qaud Strain

Oct 12, 2005 Quadricep -Qaud Strain

Nov 03, 2004 Ankle - sprained ankle

Oct 27, 2004 Ankle - sprained ankl

Oct 20, 2004 Ankle sprained ankle

Oct 13, 2004 Knee - sprained knee

4) Roy sucked in 08

This is probably the biggest concern I have but that being said Roy changed teams mid-season, Dallas was having issues with TO that affected the whole team, Romo got injured, Brad was pathetic, and Roy got Injured. Roy had to learn a new offense in the midst of the TO mess and missed much needed practice time due to injury. That being said he was terrible and you would expect better; However I am much more inclined to believe that last year was just a really bad year then the beginning of a trend. Sometimes players will just have a terrible year. Many things went into that situation last year that are unlikely to occur this year. At this point it seems much more reasonable to look at what has done from in Detroit as a #1 and what Dallas has been able to with it's offense, then to predict the a perfect storm of problems will continue.

 

[KellysHeroes]

hes being valued around WR 20 in the leagues I'm.... Thats Low-end WR2 / High WR3; wouldn't call it Kool-Aid drinking.

 

[Snotbubbles]

1)In the past 5 years a TE has had more targets then the top WR on his team 16 times.Gates 07 117 WRs VJAX 80 / Chris Chambers 63 Gates 06 119 WRs Eric Parker 70 / Keenan McCardell 51 Gates 05 140 WRs Keenan McCardell 108 / Eric Parker 80Gates 04 111 WRs Eric Parker 71 (13 G) / Keenan McCardell 57 ( 7 G)Heap 06 116 WRs Mason 112 / Clayton 114Gonzo 07 154 WR Bowe 117 / Web 58Gonzo 06 103 WR Kennisen 101 / Parker 68Gonzo 05 116 WR Kennisen 108 / Parker 58Gonzo 04 143 WR Kennisen 102 (14G) / Morton 76Gonzo 03 106 WR Kennison 99 / Morton 92Gonzo 02 97 WR Kennison 91 / Morton 91Z Miller 08 86 WR Curry 47 / Higgins 42A Crumpler 06 103 WR Jenkins 84 / White 64A Crumpler 05 118 WR Finneran 81 / Jenkins 71J Wiggins 05 91 WR T Taylor 90 / M Robinson 57LJ Smith 05 107 G Lewis 105 / TO 92 (7 games)Of those 16 only 8 were clearly the #1 option. most were 1a / 1b relationships. VJax did not emerge as a legitimate receiver until 08 and when he did he received more targets then Gates. VJax 101 to 92 for Gates. Parker and 34 to 37 year old McCardell simply don't compare to Roy. Even teams with good TE do not make them clear option ones by choice. Even Gonzo and Kennison were 1a and 1b for almost their entire time together. Gonzo is one of the best off all time and even the Roy skeptic would take Roy over Kennison. Looking at the names on this list it's pretty obvious that if a TE is the clear #1 option it is because of some combination of of quality TE, lack of WR talent, WR injuries, and overall luck. Being a great TE is not enough of a reason for a TE to be the clear #1 option

1. Gates was injured in 2008. That's why he saw a drop in targets.2. The Chiefs offense from 04-07 threw to their RBs only 50x per year. The Dallas offense in 2008 threw to their RBs 75x. So more targets will be going to the RB as compared to the WRs/TEs. A good comparison of what we might see is the 03 Chiefs, where they ran the ball 446 times and threw the ball 536 times. Priest Holmes caught 74 balls which is about what I expect the Cowboys RBs to catch. Using your numbers Gonzo had 106 targets and Kennison had 99. Using your numbers again 99 targets x 57% catch rate is about 57 receptions. Using Roys highest YPC of his career at 16 thats 57-912.EDIT: When I say threw in 2 I meant receptions.

 

[CBower4545]

1)In the past 5 years a TE has had more targets then the top WR on his team 16 times.

Gates 07 117 WRs VJAX 80 / Chris Chambers 63

Gates 06 119 WRs Eric Parker 70 / Keenan McCardell 51

Gates 05 140 WRs Keenan McCardell 108 / Eric Parker 80

Gates 04 111 WRs Eric Parker 71 (13 G) / Keenan McCardell 57 ( 7 G)

Heap 06 116 WRs Mason 112 / Clayton 114

Gonzo 07 154 WR Bowe 117 / Web 58

Gonzo 06 103 WR Kennisen 101 / Parker 68

Gonzo 05 116 WR Kennisen 108 / Parker 58

Gonzo 04 143 WR Kennisen 102 (14G) / Morton 76

Gonzo 03 106 WR Kennison 99 / Morton 92

Gonzo 02 97 WR Kennison 91 / Morton 91

Z Miller 08 86 WR Curry 47 / Higgins 42

A Crumpler 06 103 WR Jenkins 84 / White 64

A Crumpler 05 118 WR Finneran 81 / Jenkins 71

J Wiggins 05 91 WR T Taylor 90 / M Robinson 57

LJ Smith 05 107 G Lewis 105 / TO 92 (7 games)

Of those 16 only 8 were clearly the #1 option. most were 1a / 1b relationships. VJax did not emerge as a legitimate receiver until 08 and when he did he received more targets then Gates. VJax 101 to 92 for Gates. Parker and 34 to 37 year old McCardell simply don't compare to Roy. Even teams with good TE do not make them clear option ones by choice. Even Gonzo and Kennison were 1a and 1b for almost their entire time together. Gonzo is one of the best off all time and even the Roy skeptic would take Roy over Kennison. Looking at the names on this list it's pretty obvious that if a TE is the clear #1 option it is because of some combination of of quality TE, lack of WR talent, WR injuries, and overall luck. Being a great TE is not enough of a reason for a TE to be the clear #1 option

1. Gates was injured in 2008. That's why he saw a drop in targets.2. The Chiefs offense from 04-07 threw to their RBs only 50x per year. The Dallas offense in 2008 threw to their RBs 75x. So more targets will be going to the RB as compared to the WRs/TEs. A good comparison of what we might see is the 03 Chiefs, where they ran the ball 446 times and threw the ball 536 times. Priest Holmes caught 74 balls which is about what I expect the Cowboys RBs to catch. Using your numbers Gonzo had 106 targets and Kennison had 99. (BTW their not my numbers they are from FBG and they are the numbers, I didn't just pick them out of a hat)

Using your numbers again 99 targets x 57% catch rate is about 57 receptions. Using Roys highest YPC of his career at 16 thats 57-912.

EDIT: When I say threw in 2 I meant receptions.

1) Your stretching here. Gates played the entire season. Looking at gates from the previous season he was banged up then too but got plenty more targets the VJax. You don't think VJax emergence had anything to do with this increase?Jan 18, 2008 Toe

Jan 11, 2008 Toe

Jan 06, 2008 0 Sprained left big toe

Dec 14, 2007 Back

Nov 16, 2007 Team decision

Oct 05, 2007 Illness

Sep 14, 2007 Back

2) KC from 04 to 07 averaged 100 targets to RBs vs Dallas 08 96. So KC actually threw to their backs more not less then Dallas. Cowboys running backs actually caught 77 balls last year, so expecting them to catch 74 is actually less Why would that mean more targets went their way? Or are you talking about barber alone? Thats a bold prediction. In 03 KC their pass ratio was 54% which is actually more then I am projecting by the way. The difference is you believe the other WRs will get 33% or 178 targets. Which Dallas hasn't done since Glenn was their #2, the Jets hit 33% last year and they had Cotchery as their #2. Dallas doesn't spread the ball like an Eagles team and they don't have a Glenn or Cotchery, so I think this is pretty high. 135 Targets for RBs is a good number even for teams with great pass catching (westbrook, LT, Holmes, and so forth). Why short change Witten so much? 106 targets would be about 70 catches where I have 125 targets and about 83 catches.It looks like you are giving Barber 74 catches, about 110 targets to Crayton (or Dal#2) which probably be about 60 catches, and about 60 targets for or 30 catches for Austin. So you have Barber, Crayton, and Austin all having career highs in receptions in 09. Your Basically saying that the #2 Wr in Dallas could lead the team in targets. I can not break down 178 targets among Crayton, Austin, Hurd, and Standback, that doesnt get the #2 in the high 90's or the #3 Wr in the high 80's. Dallas does not use their 3rd, 4th and 5th wide receivers much. You basically have to go back to 2003 Dallas when Glenn, Galloway, and A. Bryant to find a split close to KC of 2003.While Witten's percentage drops considerably. When you start looking at the big picture this comparison just doesn't add up.

 

[Jason Wood]

GREAT discussion so far everyone!

I'm thrilled at the level of detail and the relative measure of civility in this thread so far.

I tried to pick players for Week One that have a wide range of expectations to foster spirited debate, and you all haven't let me down.

Thanks again

 

[Snotbubbles]

1)In the past 5 years a TE has had more targets then the top WR on his team 16 times.

Gates 07 117 WRs VJAX 80 / Chris Chambers 63

Gates 06 119 WRs Eric Parker 70 / Keenan McCardell 51

Gates 05 140 WRs Keenan McCardell 108 / Eric Parker 80

Gates 04 111 WRs Eric Parker 71 (13 G) / Keenan McCardell 57 ( 7 G)

Heap 06 116 WRs Mason 112 / Clayton 114

Gonzo 07 154 WR Bowe 117 / Web 58

Gonzo 06 103 WR Kennisen 101 / Parker 68

Gonzo 05 116 WR Kennisen 108 / Parker 58

Gonzo 04 143 WR Kennisen 102 (14G) / Morton 76

Gonzo 03 106 WR Kennison 99 / Morton 92

Gonzo 02 97 WR Kennison 91 / Morton 91

Z Miller 08 86 WR Curry 47 / Higgins 42

A Crumpler 06 103 WR Jenkins 84 / White 64

A Crumpler 05 118 WR Finneran 81 / Jenkins 71

J Wiggins 05 91 WR T Taylor 90 / M Robinson 57

LJ Smith 05 107 G Lewis 105 / TO 92 (7 games)

Of those 16 only 8 were clearly the #1 option. most were 1a / 1b relationships. VJax did not emerge as a legitimate receiver until 08 and when he did he received more targets then Gates. VJax 101 to 92 for Gates. Parker and 34 to 37 year old McCardell simply don't compare to Roy. Even teams with good TE do not make them clear option ones by choice. Even Gonzo and Kennison were 1a and 1b for almost their entire time together. Gonzo is one of the best off all time and even the Roy skeptic would take Roy over Kennison. Looking at the names on this list it's pretty obvious that if a TE is the clear #1 option it is because of some combination of of quality TE, lack of WR talent, WR injuries, and overall luck. Being a great TE is not enough of a reason for a TE to be the clear #1 option

1. Gates was injured in 2008. That's why he saw a drop in targets.2. The Chiefs offense from 04-07 threw to their RBs only 50x per year. The Dallas offense in 2008 threw to their RBs 75x. So more targets will be going to the RB as compared to the WRs/TEs. A good comparison of what we might see is the 03 Chiefs, where they ran the ball 446 times and threw the ball 536 times. Priest Holmes caught 74 balls which is about what I expect the Cowboys RBs to catch. Using your numbers Gonzo had 106 targets and Kennison had 99. (BTW their not my numbers they are from FBG and they are the numbers, I didn't just pick them out of a hat)

Using your numbers again 99 targets x 57% catch rate is about 57 receptions. Using Roys highest YPC of his career at 16 thats 57-912.

EDIT: When I say threw in 2 I meant receptions.

1) Your stretching here. Gates played the entire season. Looking at gates from the previous season he was banged up then too but got plenty more targets the VJax. You don't think VJax emergence had anything to do with this increase?Jan 18, 2008 Toe

Jan 11, 2008 Toe

Jan 06, 2008 0 Sprained left big toe

Dec 14, 2007 Back

Nov 16, 2007 Team decision

Oct 05, 2007 Illness

Sep 14, 2007 Back

2) KC from 04 to 07 averaged 100 targets to RBs vs Dallas 08 96. So KC actually threw to their backs more not less then Dallas. Cowboys running backs actually caught 77 balls last year, so expecting them to catch 74 is actually less Why would that mean more targets went their way? Or are you talking about barber alone? Thats a bold prediction. In 03 KC their pass ratio was 54% which is actually more then I am projecting by the way. The difference is you believe the other WRs will get 33% or 178 targets. Which Dallas hasn't done since Glenn was their #2, the Jets hit 33% last year and they had Cotchery as their #2. Dallas doesn't spread the ball like an Eagles team and they don't have a Glenn or Cotchery, so I think this is pretty high. 135 Targets for RBs is a good number even for teams with great pass catching (westbrook, LT, Holmes, and so forth). Why short change Witten so much? 106 targets would be about 70 catches where I have 125 targets and about 83 catches.It looks like you are giving Barber 74 catches, about 110 targets to Crayton (or Dal#2) which probably be about 60 catches, and about 60 targets for or 30 catches for Austin. So you have Barber, Crayton, and Austin all having career highs in receptions in 09. Your Basically saying that the #2 Wr in Dallas could lead the team in targets. I can not break down 178 targets among Crayton, Austin, Hurd, and Standback, that doesnt get the #2 in the high 90's or the #3 Wr in the high 80's. Dallas does not use their 3rd, 4th and 5th wide receivers much. You basically have to go back to 2003 Dallas when Glenn, Galloway, and A. Bryant to find a split close to KC of 2003.While Witten's percentage drops considerably. When you start looking at the big picture this comparison just doesn't add up.

1. The toe is what killed Gates. That slows him down and messes up his cuts and timing. He hurt it around (or in) the playoffs and it never fully healed.2. I'm not projecting Barber to catch 77 balls. Felix Jones is probably their best recieving back and he was hurt most of last season. I expect him to get more work this year. I'm saying the Cowboys RBs as a whole will catch at least 75 balls. I also expect the Cowboys to throw less then the 547 attempts they had last season and rush more then the 401 attempts they had.

I would say they will attempt around 510 passes. Romo at a 64% completion percentage means about 326 completions. Dallas RBs with 80 receptions. Witten with 85. Crayton with 50. Backup TE with 20. #3, 4, and 5 WRs with 35. That leaves about 55 receptions for Williams (assuming he plays all 16 games). At 15 YPC which is above his career average your talking about 55 catches for 825 yards. And that's if he goes over his career YPC AND he plays all 16 games.

At 520 passes Williams numbers would look like this: 61-915

At 530 passes like this: 68-1020

At 540 passes like this: 75-1125

Again that's if he plays 16 games and goes above his career average YPC. Playing 16 games for Williams IMO is unlikely, the YPC...who knows.

EDIT: IMO, the Cowboys won't throw the ball more then 530 times so 68-1020 would be my ceiling for Williams. His 16 game floor would be the 55-825.

 

[rzrback77]

Roy Williams was drafted very high, albeit by the Detroit Lions who have a history of draft ineptitude, so you may have to take his 7th overall pick in the 04 draft with a grain or two of salt.

He has had some success in the past, ranking 29, 30, and 10 in his first three years with the Lions. He dropped back in 07 as he played in only 12 games to finish as WR 33, but if you project him playing the other four games he would have had back to back years over 1000 yards. He fell off the map last year playing in Detroit first and then traded to the Cowboys and being slowed by injuries.

He seems to have polarized the posters at FBGs as you hear many who say he is a bust and yet many project him to play very well in 09. As a dynasty owner in a couple of leagues, I have hope that he can turn it around.

Let's look at the stats:

04 14 gms 114 targets 54 catches 817 yds 15.1 and 8 TDs FBG non-ppr WR 29

05 13 gms 94 targets 45 catches 687 yds 15.3 and 8 TDs FBG non-ppr WR 30

06 16 gms 153 targets 82 catches 1310 yds 16.0 and 7 TDs FBG non-ppr WR 10

07 12 gms 104 targets 63 catches 836 yds 13.3 and 5 TDs FBG non-ppr WR 29

It appears that he has been injury prone missing time in all but one of his five seasons, but when he plays he has been productive, except last season. I'll give him a mulligan with the Cowboys and say that he is without question their #1 WR since TO has left town. I look for him to be productve in the #1 role with the Cowboys who will also run effectively and score a lot. He has had 30 career TDs so he can use his 6-2 height at the goal line.

Roy Williams 140 targets (same as TO in 08) 78 catches 1131 yds 14.5 ypc and 8 TDs

 

[CBower4545]

1)In the past 5 years a TE has had more targets then the top WR on his team 16 times.

Gates 07 117 WRs VJAX 80 / Chris Chambers 63

Gates 06 119 WRs Eric Parker 70 / Keenan McCardell 51

Gates 05 140 WRs Keenan McCardell 108 / Eric Parker 80

Gates 04 111 WRs Eric Parker 71 (13 G) / Keenan McCardell 57 ( 7 G)

Heap 06 116 WRs Mason 112 / Clayton 114

Gonzo 07 154 WR Bowe 117 / Web 58

Gonzo 06 103 WR Kennisen 101 / Parker 68

Gonzo 05 116 WR Kennisen 108 / Parker 58

Gonzo 04 143 WR Kennisen 102 (14G) / Morton 76

Gonzo 03 106 WR Kennison 99 / Morton 92

Gonzo 02 97 WR Kennison 91 / Morton 91

Z Miller 08 86 WR Curry 47 / Higgins 42

A Crumpler 06 103 WR Jenkins 84 / White 64

A Crumpler 05 118 WR Finneran 81 / Jenkins 71

J Wiggins 05 91 WR T Taylor 90 / M Robinson 57

LJ Smith 05 107 G Lewis 105 / TO 92 (7 games)

Of those 16 only 8 were clearly the #1 option. most were 1a / 1b relationships. VJax did not emerge as a legitimate receiver until 08 and when he did he received more targets then Gates. VJax 101 to 92 for Gates. Parker and 34 to 37 year old McCardell simply don't compare to Roy. Even teams with good TE do not make them clear option ones by choice. Even Gonzo and Kennison were 1a and 1b for almost their entire time together. Gonzo is one of the best off all time and even the Roy skeptic would take Roy over Kennison. Looking at the names on this list it's pretty obvious that if a TE is the clear #1 option it is because of some combination of of quality TE, lack of WR talent, WR injuries, and overall luck. Being a great TE is not enough of a reason for a TE to be the clear #1 option

1. Gates was injured in 2008. That's why he saw a drop in targets.2. The Chiefs offense from 04-07 threw to their RBs only 50x per year. The Dallas offense in 2008 threw to their RBs 75x. So more targets will be going to the RB as compared to the WRs/TEs. A good comparison of what we might see is the 03 Chiefs, where they ran the ball 446 times and threw the ball 536 times. Priest Holmes caught 74 balls which is about what I expect the Cowboys RBs to catch. Using your numbers Gonzo had 106 targets and Kennison had 99. (BTW their not my numbers they are from FBG and they are the numbers, I didn't just pick them out of a hat)

Using your numbers again 99 targets x 57% catch rate is about 57 receptions. Using Roys highest YPC of his career at 16 thats 57-912.

EDIT: When I say threw in 2 I meant receptions.

1) Your stretching here. Gates played the entire season. Looking at gates from the previous season he was banged up then too but got plenty more targets the VJax. You don't think VJax emergence had anything to do with this increase?Jan 18, 2008 Toe

Jan 11, 2008 Toe

Jan 06, 2008 0 Sprained left big toe

Dec 14, 2007 Back

Nov 16, 2007 Team decision

Oct 05, 2007 Illness

Sep 14, 2007 Back

2) KC from 04 to 07 averaged 100 targets to RBs vs Dallas 08 96. So KC actually threw to their backs more not less then Dallas. Cowboys running backs actually caught 77 balls last year, so expecting them to catch 74 is actually less Why would that mean more targets went their way? Or are you talking about barber alone? Thats a bold prediction. In 03 KC their pass ratio was 54% which is actually more then I am projecting by the way. The difference is you believe the other WRs will get 33% or 178 targets. Which Dallas hasn't done since Glenn was their #2, the Jets hit 33% last year and they had Cotchery as their #2. Dallas doesn't spread the ball like an Eagles team and they don't have a Glenn or Cotchery, so I think this is pretty high. 135 Targets for RBs is a good number even for teams with great pass catching (westbrook, LT, Holmes, and so forth). Why short change Witten so much? 106 targets would be about 70 catches where I have 125 targets and about 83 catches.It looks like you are giving Barber 74 catches, about 110 targets to Crayton (or Dal#2) which probably be about 60 catches, and about 60 targets for or 30 catches for Austin. So you have Barber, Crayton, and Austin all having career highs in receptions in 09. Your Basically saying that the #2 Wr in Dallas could lead the team in targets. I can not break down 178 targets among Crayton, Austin, Hurd, and Standback, that doesnt get the #2 in the high 90's or the #3 Wr in the high 80's. Dallas does not use their 3rd, 4th and 5th wide receivers much. You basically have to go back to 2003 Dallas when Glenn, Galloway, and A. Bryant to find a split close to KC of 2003.While Witten's percentage drops considerably. When you start looking at the big picture this comparison just doesn't add up.

1. The toe is what killed Gates. That slows him down and messes up his cuts and timing. He hurt it around (or in) the playoffs and it never fully healed.2. I'm not projecting Barber to catch 77 balls. Felix Jones is probably their best recieving back and he was hurt most of last season. I expect him to get more work this year. I'm saying the Cowboys RBs as a whole will catch at least 75 balls. I also expect the Cowboys to throw less then the 547 attempts they had last season and rush more then the 401 attempts they had.

I would say they will attempt around 510 passes. Romo at a 64% completion percentage means about 326 completions. Dallas RBs with 80 receptions. Witten with 85. Crayton with 50. Backup TE with 20. #3, 4, and 5 WRs with 35. That leaves about 55 receptions for Williams (assuming he plays all 16 games). At 15 YPC which is above his career average your talking about 55 catches for 825 yards. And that's if he goes over his career YPC AND he plays all 16 games.

At 520 passes Williams numbers would look like this: 61-915

At 530 passes like this: 68-1020

At 540 passes like this: 75-1125

Again that's if he plays 16 games and goes above his career average YPC. Playing 16 games for Williams IMO is unlikely, the YPC...who knows.

EDIT: IMO, the Cowboys won't throw the ball more then 530 times so 68-1020 would be my ceiling for Williams. His 16 game floor would be the 55-825.

Your Dallas 09 vs KC 03 WR 1 rec 55 vs 56

WR 2 rec 50 vs 50

WR 3-5 Rec 35 vs 51

RB receptions 80 vs 105

TE receptions 105 vs 76

I don't think your comparison to KC ends up being a very good comparison to your projections. Your point earlier was that the increased RB looks would be what costs Roy and TEs. KC threw a decent amount more to their RBs and WR 3-5, and much less to their TEs.But your projections only predict modest increases in % RBs looks with, pretty much the status qou at TE and a significant changed at WR 1and 2. So now that we have your actual model we can take a look at how things will shake out. From looking at your projections what will cost Roy targets under your model is not so much the increase in RB looks but the fact that you believe Crayton will be targeted on the same level as Roy and that WR 3-5 will be more involved then in 2007 as just as involved as 2008 with Roy in that group. I think we just have to agree to disagree there, you obviously must think highly of Crayton and Austin. I do not. I think Roy will be the unquestioned starter. I just think the gap between Roy and Crayton is much larger your projection would indicate.

 

[Snotbubbles]

1)In the past 5 years a TE has had more targets then the top WR on his team 16 times.

Gates 07 117 WRs VJAX 80 / Chris Chambers 63

Gates 06 119 WRs Eric Parker 70 / Keenan McCardell 51

Gates 05 140 WRs Keenan McCardell 108 / Eric Parker 80

Gates 04 111 WRs Eric Parker 71 (13 G) / Keenan McCardell 57 ( 7 G)

Heap 06 116 WRs Mason 112 / Clayton 114

Gonzo 07 154 WR Bowe 117 / Web 58

Gonzo 06 103 WR Kennisen 101 / Parker 68

Gonzo 05 116 WR Kennisen 108 / Parker 58

Gonzo 04 143 WR Kennisen 102 (14G) / Morton 76

Gonzo 03 106 WR Kennison 99 / Morton 92

Gonzo 02 97 WR Kennison 91 / Morton 91

Z Miller 08 86 WR Curry 47 / Higgins 42

A Crumpler 06 103 WR Jenkins 84 / White 64

A Crumpler 05 118 WR Finneran 81 / Jenkins 71

J Wiggins 05 91 WR T Taylor 90 / M Robinson 57

LJ Smith 05 107 G Lewis 105 / TO 92 (7 games)

Of those 16 only 8 were clearly the #1 option. most were 1a / 1b relationships. VJax did not emerge as a legitimate receiver until 08 and when he did he received more targets then Gates. VJax 101 to 92 for Gates. Parker and 34 to 37 year old McCardell simply don't compare to Roy. Even teams with good TE do not make them clear option ones by choice. Even Gonzo and Kennison were 1a and 1b for almost their entire time together. Gonzo is one of the best off all time and even the Roy skeptic would take Roy over Kennison. Looking at the names on this list it's pretty obvious that if a TE is the clear #1 option it is because of some combination of of quality TE, lack of WR talent, WR injuries, and overall luck. Being a great TE is not enough of a reason for a TE to be the clear #1 option

1. Gates was injured in 2008. That's why he saw a drop in targets.2. The Chiefs offense from 04-07 threw to their RBs only 50x per year. The Dallas offense in 2008 threw to their RBs 75x. So more targets will be going to the RB as compared to the WRs/TEs. A good comparison of what we might see is the 03 Chiefs, where they ran the ball 446 times and threw the ball 536 times. Priest Holmes caught 74 balls which is about what I expect the Cowboys RBs to catch. Using your numbers Gonzo had 106 targets and Kennison had 99. (BTW their not my numbers they are from FBG and they are the numbers, I didn't just pick them out of a hat)

Using your numbers again 99 targets x 57% catch rate is about 57 receptions. Using Roys highest YPC of his career at 16 thats 57-912.

EDIT: When I say threw in 2 I meant receptions.

1) Your stretching here. Gates played the entire season. Looking at gates from the previous season he was banged up then too but got plenty more targets the VJax. You don't think VJax emergence had anything to do with this increase?Jan 18, 2008 Toe

Jan 11, 2008 Toe

Jan 06, 2008 0 Sprained left big toe

Dec 14, 2007 Back

Nov 16, 2007 Team decision

Oct 05, 2007 Illness

Sep 14, 2007 Back

2) KC from 04 to 07 averaged 100 targets to RBs vs Dallas 08 96. So KC actually threw to their backs more not less then Dallas. Cowboys running backs actually caught 77 balls last year, so expecting them to catch 74 is actually less Why would that mean more targets went their way? Or are you talking about barber alone? Thats a bold prediction. In 03 KC their pass ratio was 54% which is actually more then I am projecting by the way. The difference is you believe the other WRs will get 33% or 178 targets. Which Dallas hasn't done since Glenn was their #2, the Jets hit 33% last year and they had Cotchery as their #2. Dallas doesn't spread the ball like an Eagles team and they don't have a Glenn or Cotchery, so I think this is pretty high. 135 Targets for RBs is a good number even for teams with great pass catching (westbrook, LT, Holmes, and so forth). Why short change Witten so much? 106 targets would be about 70 catches where I have 125 targets and about 83 catches.It looks like you are giving Barber 74 catches, about 110 targets to Crayton (or Dal#2) which probably be about 60 catches, and about 60 targets for or 30 catches for Austin. So you have Barber, Crayton, and Austin all having career highs in receptions in 09. Your Basically saying that the #2 Wr in Dallas could lead the team in targets. I can not break down 178 targets among Crayton, Austin, Hurd, and Standback, that doesnt get the #2 in the high 90's or the #3 Wr in the high 80's. Dallas does not use their 3rd, 4th and 5th wide receivers much. You basically have to go back to 2003 Dallas when Glenn, Galloway, and A. Bryant to find a split close to KC of 2003.While Witten's percentage drops considerably. When you start looking at the big picture this comparison just doesn't add up.

1. The toe is what killed Gates. That slows him down and messes up his cuts and timing. He hurt it around (or in) the playoffs and it never fully healed.2. I'm not projecting Barber to catch 77 balls. Felix Jones is probably their best recieving back and he was hurt most of last season. I expect him to get more work this year. I'm saying the Cowboys RBs as a whole will catch at least 75 balls. I also expect the Cowboys to throw less then the 547 attempts they had last season and rush more then the 401 attempts they had.

I would say they will attempt around 510 passes. Romo at a 64% completion percentage means about 326 completions. Dallas RBs with 80 receptions. Witten with 85. Crayton with 50. Backup TE with 20. #3, 4, and 5 WRs with 35. That leaves about 55 receptions for Williams (assuming he plays all 16 games). At 15 YPC which is above his career average your talking about 55 catches for 825 yards. And that's if he goes over his career YPC AND he plays all 16 games.

At 520 passes Williams numbers would look like this: 61-915

At 530 passes like this: 68-1020

At 540 passes like this: 75-1125

Again that's if he plays 16 games and goes above his career average YPC. Playing 16 games for Williams IMO is unlikely, the YPC...who knows.

EDIT: IMO, the Cowboys won't throw the ball more then 530 times so 68-1020 would be my ceiling for Williams. His 16 game floor would be the 55-825.

Your Dallas 09 vs KC 03 WR 1 rec 55 vs 56

WR 2 rec 50 vs 50

WR 3-5 Rec 35 vs 51

RB receptions 80 vs 105

TE receptions 105 vs 76

I don't think your comparison to KC ends up being a very good comparison to your projections. Your point earlier was that the increased RB looks would be what costs Roy and TEs. KC threw a decent amount more to their RBs and WR 3-5, and much less to their TEs.But your projections only predict modest increases in % RBs looks with, pretty much the status qou at TE and a significant changed at WR 1and 2. So now that we have your actual model we can take a look at how things will shake out. From looking at your projections what will cost Roy targets under your model is not so much the increase in RB looks but the fact that you believe Crayton will be targeted on the same level as Roy and that WR 3-5 will be more involved then in 2007 as just as involved as 2008 with Roy in that group. I think we just have to agree to disagree there, you obviously must think highly of Crayton and Austin. I do not. I think Roy will be the unquestioned starter. I just think the gap between Roy and Crayton is much larger your projection would indicate.

The 03 Chiefs actually look like a pretty good comparison to me. The only difference is the Dallas backup TE will take more of the RB receptions then the KC backup TE did.The Dallas RBs caught 77 balls, I gave them 80.

Crayton has already caught 50 balls in a season so I don't think that's a stretch to say he'll do it again.

The backup TEs in Dallas last year caught 28 balls, so saying they'll catch 20 again is not a stretch.

The #3-5 WRs caught 33 balls.

I'm not really reaching for any of these totals.

The real question is, how many times will the Cowboys throw the ball. If they only throw it 510 times, it's gonna be real hard for Roy to hit 1000 yards.

I do like your arguments, but I think opportunity and injury will ultimately derail any chance Williams has at being a top 15 WR.

 

[Jon_Moore]

He's shown he has all the talent in the world, he just never puts it all together consistently on the field. He's been accused of taking plays off when they're not called for him. That's probably something that's easy to fall into when you spend your entire career up to this point on the worst team in the NFL.

He's now got by far the best quarterback he's ever played with, and an offensive line that will give him time to get downfield and open. He's Got Jason Witten, Marion Barber and Felix Jones to keep defenses from keying on him. And it's probably a lot easier to play consistently when you're winning or at least have a chance to win. Randy Moss was quite awful his last season in Oakland, and then exploded in New England.

Williams is a big guy who should see plenty of Red Zone looks on an offense that has no trouble getting the ball downfield

74 Receptions

1102 Yards

9 TDs

 

[jurb26]

There really isn't much I can add to this thread after reading Lott's awesome post. I've stated my case on Roy in many other threads and agree completely with Lott's stance.

78 receptions, 1130, 10 TDs

 

[LordHusker]

Thoughts after opening week? Williams didn't have a big yardage game, but he did come through with a big play for one of those four TDs that some of you think he'll be limited to.

 

[Bankerguy]

Thoughts after opening week? Williams didn't have a big yardage game, but he did come through with a big play for one of those four TDs that some of you think he'll be limited to.

At this point I can't justify raising my projections on him on this 1 game.75 catches990 yards8 TD's:(

 

[The Man With No Name]

Roy Williams retires on Facebook, admits career didn't go as planned, turning point in Dallas

By Clarence E. Hill Jr.

Former Cowboys receiver and Longhorns legend Roy Williams announced his retirement after nine star-crossed years in the NFL with a status update on his Facebook page Saturday morning.

Williams said he had a great time in NFL despite several ups and downs but is ready to move on with his life and spend more time with his family, especially sons Jordan and Dallas, ages 6 and 3, respectively.

Although Williams admits thinking about retiring last year when he was with the Chicago Bears, he didn’t necessarily go out on his own terms.

He had planned on playing in 2012 but only got one tryout and that was with the Houston Texans in late July. The Texans didn’t offer him a contract and he said at the time he would wait until the second week of the season before giving up.

But Williams knew he was done when he passed on a tryout with the Dolphins a couple of weeks ago.

“Being here with my kids, I was able to take my son to school for the first time,” Williams said. “There was no need for me to go back. It’s hard to quit when you have been doing something the third grade. I’m in good shape. I’m at 208 pounds, my lowest weight since college. I can still play. But when I declined to workout in Miami, I knew I was done.”

While Williams is content with his time in the NFL, he readily acknowledges his career didn’t go as planned after being so dominant in high school at Odessa Permian and in college at Texas and then being picked seventh overall by the Detroit Lions in the 2004 NFL Draft.

He doesn’t sugar coat the fact that things started to go downhill when he was traded to the Cowboys in 2008 _ which was a dream come to true to him and the reason he named his second son Dallas.

“Put up good numbers my first few years, went to a Pro Bowl then I got to Dallas and it stopped,” Williams said. “It is what it is. God had a plan for me. The grass ain’t always greener on the other side.”

Williams ends his career with 393 catches for 5,715 yards and 44 touchdown _ including 245 of those catches and 28 touchdowns during his first fours years with the Lions. His best season was in 2006 with 82 catches for 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns.

He was traded to the Cowboys five games into the 2008 season for a first, third and sixth round pick. Williams was also given a five-year, $45 million contract extension.

It proved to be one of the worst trades in Cowboys history as Williams caught 94 passes and 13 touchdowns in 40 games before being cut following the 2010 season.

He caught 37 passes and two touchdowns with the Bears last season _ continuing what was a steep decline in production over the last five years.

“I accomplished what I wanted except for a Super Bowl,” Williams said. “I got traded to America’s team. That dream came true. It was up and down. The last two teams I played for were the most traditional teams in the NFL.”

In addition to spending times with his kids, Williams will turn his attention to his trucking business he started in West Texas August.

“I get to be the boss,” Williams said “I’ll be Jerry Jones off RDubb trucking.”

Here is Williams’ retirement update from his facebook page:

“My time in the NFL is over, had a great time, ups and downs, met soooo many ppl, fans, and friends. Played with some of the best athletes in the world, alot of ppl don't get that opportunity. But now it's time for me to have my family time that I've missed for the last 9yrs, spending it with Jordan and Dallas and the ppl who love me, so I will never strap it up again(even tho i can still play), but at the same time I'm ready to give that dream up. Came into the league healthy, and im walking away healthy, with my head held high. Thank you all who've cheered for me, booed me, and loved me, y'all are still fans to me!”

Clarence Hill

Sep 8, 2012 7:31:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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[Manster]

Roy should have to give some money back. That guy was paid a lot of money to catch a few passes, drop a few, and smile the whole time. It's like he was thinking " i cant believe they're paying me this much money", with that big crap eating grin on his face. Not surprised he's done, I'm not sure he was really "into it" most of his career.