Player Spotlight: Ryan Grant (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Ryan Grant Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[BLOX]

Grant has been a hot topic this offseason since he is a RFA and has yet to sign a deal. There are concerns about him not participating in off season activities thus far, but from what McCarthy has stated it doesn't seem like either side is too worried about things not coming together in time for training camp.

There's also been debate about whether or not Grant will be in a RBBC with Brandon Jackson, Vernand Morency, DeShawn Wynn, and/or Noah Herron. One of the 4 is going to be the odd man out in Green Bay but the main duties will be Grants and his alone. Grant will be the majority of downs ball carrier with Jackson replacing him for a series or two per game plus some 3rd down duties. Yes, there will be a committee, but not like most people would expect.

Here's an article which has some comment from McCarthy about the situation:

Link

Anyway, I see Grant getting close to 300 carries this year and will also have close to 40 receptions as well. He'll be a nice back to have in '08 unless of course something holds up the contract talks (which isn't likely at this point - both sides know what is going to happen IMO).

279 carries, 1250 yards, 3 fumbles lost, 37 rec. 315 yards 11 total TDs.

Should be a solid #1 RB for guys drafting at the end of the first round. Or a steal in the early 2nd.

 

[shadyridr]

This guy will be a workhorse, will get all the carries at the goalline, a solid # of receptions, plays in a horrible division for a team with a solid offense and good O-line. Whats not to like. If you can get this guy at the end of the 1st round consider yourself VERY lucky. Pair him up with a stud like Moss or Brady at the turn and your draft is golden right there.

304 att, 1429 yds, 10 tds, 40 rec, 280 yds, 0 td

I got him ranked just below guys like Barber & Gore and just ahead of Lynch & McGahee and that seems about right.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Sometimes it takes guys awhile to "get it" in the NFL and become an effective player and in turn a good fantasy player.

What I am having trouble assessing with Grant is did he "get it" or was he simply a product of a good O-line with a HOF QB opening up holes for him.

I think Grant was a bit of both whereas he did "get it" and has the confidence going forward. But what happens when you take Favre out of the equation and Grant holds out and the rookie rb from last year has had a good off season? It leaves a bunch of question marks and my projections for Grant are unclear at this point. I will project for him when he is signed and back at work.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

#1 back? No.

#2 back? Yes.

I just don't trust him enough to draft him early.

 

[footballman_696969]

I expect the Packers to run the ball quite a bit this year to take some pressure off first time starter, Aaron Rodgers. Ryan Grant showed us last year that he is a talented RB that can carry the load. I'm not worried about Brandon Jackson stealing too many carries. He didn't look nearly as good as Grant did when he took over the starting job. I don't expect him to put up 5 yds/rush again, but he should be a solid starting RB for fantasy owners this year. With the amount of weapons the Packers have in the passing game (Driver, Jennings, Jones, Nelson, Lee), Grant shouldn't see too many 8 man fronts.

304/1368/10 40/260/0

 

[MCguidance]

Ryan Grant showed us something last year. I believe he ran with that "me against the world mentality" that makes for a great year. I believe he will keep that up, but there is that doubt in my mind that he becomes a bit more complacent, given the contract situation. Like most others, I question whether Brett Favre was a big part of the equation. There is no doubt Favre is an all-time great, but the Packers have had other great seasons by RBs in the past. I see no reason that with average QB play from Rogers, his numbers will diminish all that much. In fact, I think it may help in the sense that there will be more dump offs thus increasing his worth in PPR leagues. A quick look at Ahman's years in GB show an average that is attainable by Grant. While I do not think that Grant will reach Green's 2003 numbers, it would not surprise me to him come close and match Green's numbers from 2000/01/02/04.

I predict: 295/1300/10 51/350/2

I noticed that in the Experts Draft Post, Grant went at 3.06 (30th pick) a place I think he would represent GREAT value. I would not hesitate to grab him mid to late second round. Just my two cents here.

 

[The Moz]

Anyone else smell a little Kevan Barlow here? he has a great 8 games and a really nice playoff game. Packers drafted B. jackson in the 2nd round who they are saying looks great and played well to end last season. grant is holding out or threatning due to contract right now.

I dunno what to think here regarding thsi guy. he was undrafted and untill last season on ND fans knew of him!!

If he gets in Camp and all goes great I can see a decent season but I would still see Jackson getting carries as well as Jack IMO is a better reciever.

Grant - 280 - 1100 - 7 assuming all goes well.

 

[sho nuff]

Anyone else smell a little Kevan Barlow here? he has a great 8 games and a really nice playoff game. Packers drafted B. jackson in the 2nd round who they are saying looks great and played well to end last season. grant is holding out or threatning due to contract right now. I dunno what to think here regarding thsi guy. he was undrafted and untill last season on ND fans knew of him!! If he gets in Camp and all goes great I can see a decent season but I would still see Jackson getting carries as well as Jack IMO is a better reciever. Grant - 280 - 1100 - 7 assuming all goes well.

Grant is not holding out...he does not have a contract.Where Jackson was drafted is irrelevant (I have always hated that argument).Assuming all goes well you think he will do just barely better yardage wise than last season?

 

[Sweet Love]

Anyone else smell a little Kevan Barlow here? he has a great 8 games and a really nice playoff game. Packers drafted B. jackson in the 2nd round who they are saying looks great and played well to end last season. grant is holding out or threatning due to contract right now. I dunno what to think here regarding thsi guy. he was undrafted and untill last season on ND fans knew of him!! If he gets in Camp and all goes great I can see a decent season but I would still see Jackson getting carries as well as Jack IMO is a better reciever. Grant - 280 - 1100 - 7 assuming all goes well.

Grant is not holding out...he does not have a contract.Where Jackson was drafted is irrelevant (I have always hated that argument).Assuming all goes well you think he will do just barely better yardage wise than last season?

I wouldn't go that far. Thomas Jones and Drew Brees may have something to say about where the competition was drafted...it got them a ticket straight out of town despite stellar play. I am in a Keep 3 league where Grant may be dropped and that would leave me with S-Jax, Barber and Grant (I pick 1.02 and 1.01 will go McFadden) and I am still unsure whether to take Grant over a guy like Holt, Plax or Housh (though I doubt Housh will be dropped) in a major flex league. I hate to say it, but what distinguishes Grant over Gado? Grant did have better numbers, but the Pack had no hesitation in showing Gado the door (for Morency), so I am kind of skeptical that the Pack will treat Gado 2.0 much different (they may...). Jackson is still there and when he felt life slipping away he did perform, well enough IMO to at least open the door for the spectre of a RBBC. I am truly at a loss to predict numbers for Grant, because I feel he will either make or break many a fantasy team in '08.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.

225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's

16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

 

[Routilla]

Big numbers again.

 

[doowain]

Wow....all of these resources at our fingertips and yet so many of us are ignorant to Ryan Grant's story. A little background (I'm sorry if I'm repeating anything you already know).....Grant was at ND at the same time as coaching staff favorite, Julius Jones. He shined in limited action when JJ was injured as a sophomore and then was a complementary runner the rest of his career. Goes undrafted and is signed by the Giants. New York already has 4 RBs on board in Tiki, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, and Chad Morton. They send him to the practice squad for all of 2005. In 2006, he injures himself in a mishap at a nightclub in which he puts his arm through some champagne glasses. He does severe damage to his left arm, including severing an artery, and almost bleeds out. Doctors tell him that he may never regain full function of that arm again. He rehabs his butt off, comes back in 2007, and performs very well in the preseason for the Giants. A week before the season starts in 07, the Giants ship him to GB in a trade. He goes in cold, having to learn the playbook in full and is buried on the depth chart. The Packers are so impressed with Grant that they have him active in Week 1. Injuries to Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn open the door and we know how the rest played out.

I remember reading an article prior to last season about how the New York media was reporting that those within the Giants organization felt that Grant was the best RB on the team. I tried looking for the link, but it's late and I couldn't find it quick. I'll look harder tomorrow.

I was a Grant naysayer at one point. I questioned what "took him so long to get it" if he was SO good. I then did my research and found out the circumstances leading up to his opportunity in GB. I then watched quite a bit of tape on him and I must say I was proven wrong. I was most impressed by his vision and initial burst. Nothing makes me happier than a RB that will hit the hole going 100 mph. But, he's not Jerious Norwood. On top of that burst, he also has impeccable vision IMO. He is very shifty in the open field and takes very nice lines to avoid defenders. He also has an extra gear in the open field that I didn't realize he had. Check out the following video and see for yourself.

2005 Combine #s

Pre-draft measureables

Wt 40y 20ss 3-cone Vert BP Wonderlic

215 lb 4.43s 4.14s 7.10s 33.5" 17 26*

Although I have a lot of love for Grant, I don't foresee him as a perennial Top 5 elite RB. I see him in the 9-13 range. Low end RB1 or elite RB2.

His situation in GB is perfect this year as I see them having to run quite a bit to protect Rodgers. I don't find Rodgers to be a liability though, as he proved he will at least be adequate by his showing in the Dallas game last year. They will lean on Grant. The offensive line and the impressive blocking of the GB WRs will continue to open holes for Ryan this year. I predict big things.



290 carries 1363 yards 4.7 avg

46 receptions 275 yards 5.9 avg

1638 total yards - 11 total TDs

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I agree, as I was able to watch more than a dozen GB games this year, he wasn't just a box score all-star. He could do better on short yardage, but he did well enough most of the time -- and he can get outside, can break tackles, can take it to the house, can catch and block. Not a star, but neither was Levens. Just a good back.

 

[Tau837]

Grant was Green Bay's feature back for 12 games, including postseason. That's reasonably close to a full season, especially when you consider he put up 1283 total yards and 11 rushing TDs over that span... that's a good full season's work.

The risk with Grant is that he has not done it in multiple seasons, and thus could be a fluke, either because he himself is a fluke or because the Green Bay offense cannot sustain its excellence and it affects his performance. However, the upside is that he could get 320+ touches, 1700+ total yards, and 15 TDs - his pace from last year's 12 games scaled up to 16 games.

 

[Tanner9919]

the demise of the GB offense, now without Favre, is baloney.. Rogers might have that offense running more efficiently, i.e., fewer turnovers, more time of possession, etc. Lets not forget the INT machine known as Brett Favre. Over the past 5 seasons, Favre has averaged 25 TD:20 INTs/yr..Over that same 5-yr span, the Packers W/L record is just 45-35..

The running game shouldn't miss a beat the O-line is spectacular and GB has a great defense to lean on..

Grant is the real deal, proving he's more than capable of handling the load..

315/1417/13, 4.5 per carry

42/201/2

 

[MCguidance]

John Clayton on Grant

 

[BLOX]

John Clayton on Grant

I saw this link in a Honda commercial (see post #2).

 

[MCguidance]

John Clayton on Grant

I saw this link in a Honda commercial (see post #2).

Touche. Point Blox. Sorry about that

 

[FreeBaGeL]

a HOF QB opening up holes for him.

Look at Favre's numbers without Grant the last three years. By the time he hit his late 30's, other players were opening holes for Favre, not the other way around.

 

[rzrback77]

Ryan Grant is an interesting study. He started out last year with the Giants and was traded to the Packers juat before the season so he missed all of the pre-season workouts and needed some catching up. He did not have a carry in three games and in three others had a total of 12 carries for 84 yards and 1 TD.

WOW! He finished as RB17 and he only played in thirteen games and saw significant action in only ten. In those ten, he averaged just shy of 90 yards and scored 8 TDs. he also had 25 receptions. His current ADP is RB 12 and an overall 15. Other factors that could contribute to him dropping furhter are the retirement of Brett Favre, which influences a lot of folks that the Packers offense will regress significantly. Additionally, Grant went undrafted which leads some to believe that he may be a one hit wonder.

I think that he will pick up where he left off and be a resounding success in 08. The difficult choice is that if you take two RBs in the first two rounds, you copuold miss out on the top flight WRs. Oh well, you can't have it all.

Ryan Grant 300 carries 1290 yards 4.3 ypc and 40 catches for 280 yards and 13 total TDs

 

[Sabertooth]

Sometimes it takes guys awhile to "get it" in the NFL and become an effective player and in turn a good fantasy player.

What I am having trouble assessing with Grant is did he "get it" or was he simply a product of a good O-line with a HOF QB opening up holes for him.

I think Grant was a bit of both whereas he did "get it" and has the confidence going forward. But what happens when you take Favre out of the equation and Grant holds out and the rookie rb from last year has had a good off season? It leaves a bunch of question marks and my projections for Grant are unclear at this point. I will project for him when he is signed and back at work.

 

[Banger]

I'm a Grant owner and loved him last year. This year I'm not sure quite what to expect. As has been mentioned many times he lost a Favre which I believe will be a big blow to the offense and he was also the beneficiary of a very soft schedule down the stretch.

I think he'll be a solid #2 back....275 4.2 1155 9

 

[mlball77]

I only saw Grant play a couple of times last year, but was impressed with him. Color me a believer in him, and I say this being a Bears fan.

The offensive system that is in place in GB coupled with the high talent level on that side of the ball will keep him rolling along effectively this year, despite the loss of Favre. Then again, I like Rodgers’ odds of being effective this year as well. He was a very efficient and precise passer in college.

Rush Yds: 1250

Rush TDs: 10

Recs: 40

Rec Yds: 260

Rec TDs: 1

 

[mozzy84]

I'm a Grant owner and loved him last year. This year I'm not sure quite what to expect. As has been mentioned many times he lost a Favre which I believe will be a big blow to the offense and he was also the beneficiary of a very soft schedule down the stretch. I think he'll be a solid #2 back....275 4.2 1155 9

pretty much my thoughts/projections also. I might give him double digit td's though 10-11 and 200 yads rec...

 

[Jon_Moore]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.

In 2002, William Green averaged 92 Rushing Yards over his final 8 games and found the endzone 5 times. He would have finished with nearly 1500 Yards and 10 TDs at that pace. The next season...? 609 Total Yards and 1 TD

In 2004, Kevin Jones averaged 128 Yards from Scrimmage with 4 Tds over his final 8 Games. Extrapolated that becomes 2048 Total Yards and 8 Tds. The next season?? 773 Total Yards and 5 Tds

In 2004, Julius Jones averaged 128.3 Yards from scrimmage with 7 TDs over his final 7 games. That's on pace for 2053 Total Yards and 16 TDs. The next season...1211 Total Yards and 5 tds--not terrible at all, but as a late 1st rounder, he stunk.

That said, they drafted Brandon Jackson early last season, and Wynn showed some ability. I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs.

The good news is the passing game is one of the best. Rodgers is a little raw, but he has 2 borderline pro-bowlers at receiver, the o-line is pretty darn good as well.

158 Rushes

695 Yards

7 Rushing Tds

20 Receptions

110 Rushing Yards

 

[doowain]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.

I think this is unfair considering he didn't get the opportunity to start until week 8. It's not like he was in there stinking up the joint in the 1st half of the season. Also, how do you explain him making Seattle look like a pee-wee team out there in the playoffs?

I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs.

LOL. I don't know how Grant's ability to be a workhorse has anything to do with Green Bay having "2 other very capable backs". He most certainly has the body size to shoulder a 300-325 carry load. And I hope by saying "capable" you meant "unproven" (Jax) and "mediocre" (Wynn).Also working in Grant's favor is that he is a 3-down back, which neither of those other guys are. With a new starting QB, they need a RB in there that can perform well on each down. That back is Grant by a mile.

 

[Tau837]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.In 2002, William Green averaged 92 Rushing Yards over his final 8 games and found the endzone 5 times. He would have finished with nearly 1500 Yards and 10 TDs at that pace. The next season...? 609 Total Yards and 1 TDIn 2004, Kevin Jones averaged 128 Yards from Scrimmage with 4 Tds over his final 8 Games. Extrapolated that becomes 2048 Total Yards and 8 Tds. The next season?? 773 Total Yards and 5 TdsIn 2004, Julius Jones averaged 128.3 Yards from scrimmage with 7 TDs over his final 7 games. That's on pace for 2053 Total Yards and 16 TDs. The next season...1211 Total Yards and 5 tds--not terrible at all, but as a late 1st rounder, he stunk.That said, they drafted Brandon Jackson early last season, and Wynn showed some ability. I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs. The good news is the passing game is one of the best. Rodgers is a little raw, but he has 2 borderline pro-bowlers at receiver, the o-line is pretty darn good as well. 158 Rushes695 Yards7 Rushing Tds20 Receptions110 Rushing Yards

It cuts both ways. Using this logic, you would likely have avoided Portis and Tiki after 2002; Rudi Johnson after 2003; Larry Johnson after 2005; and Addai after 2006. Your projection makes no sense unless you are expecting Grant to miss 4+ games.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.

I think this is unfair considering he didn't get the opportunity to start until week 8. It's not like he was in there stinking up the joint in the 1st half of the season. Also, how do you explain him making Seattle look like a pee-wee team out there in the playoffs?

I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs.

LOL. I don't know how Grant's ability to be a workhorse has anything to do with Green Bay having "2 other very capable backs". He most certainly has the body size to shoulder a 300-325 carry load. And I hope by saying "capable" you meant "unproven" (Jax) and "mediocre" (Wynn).Also working in Grant's favor is that he is a 3-down back, which neither of those other guys are. With a new starting QB, they need a RB in there that can perform well on each down. That back is Grant by a mile.

By the same token, neither did Julius Jones.Secondly, I probably could have said that more clearly. I don't see him as a work horse in this offense. I think they'll bring Jackson along, and Wynn will get touches, I believe it's a full blown RBBC in the works.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.In 2002, William Green averaged 92 Rushing Yards over his final 8 games and found the endzone 5 times. He would have finished with nearly 1500 Yards and 10 TDs at that pace. The next season...? 609 Total Yards and 1 TDIn 2004, Kevin Jones averaged 128 Yards from Scrimmage with 4 Tds over his final 8 Games. Extrapolated that becomes 2048 Total Yards and 8 Tds. The next season?? 773 Total Yards and 5 TdsIn 2004, Julius Jones averaged 128.3 Yards from scrimmage with 7 TDs over his final 7 games. That's on pace for 2053 Total Yards and 16 TDs. The next season...1211 Total Yards and 5 tds--not terrible at all, but as a late 1st rounder, he stunk.That said, they drafted Brandon Jackson early last season, and Wynn showed some ability. I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs. The good news is the passing game is one of the best. Rodgers is a little raw, but he has 2 borderline pro-bowlers at receiver, the o-line is pretty darn good as well. 158 Rushes695 Yards7 Rushing Tds20 Receptions110 Rushing Yards

It cuts both ways. Using this logic, you would likely have avoided Portis and Tiki after 2002; Rudi Johnson after 2003; Larry Johnson after 2005; and Addai after 2006. Your projection makes no sense unless you are expecting Grant to miss 4+ games.

I was really aiming it at guys that go in the late part of the 1st round. Portis was a top 5 pick after 2002, and his splits weren't really that different. Tiki's splits were nearly identical in 2002 as well. Maybe so on Johnson and Addai. I'm not necessarily calling an injury, I just think they will split the carries significantly in GB this year. I don't think 8 games cements a UDFA's place atop the detph chart.

 

[Tau837]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.

In 2002, William Green averaged 92 Rushing Yards over his final 8 games and found the endzone 5 times. He would have finished with nearly 1500 Yards and 10 TDs at that pace. The next season...? 609 Total Yards and 1 TD

In 2004, Kevin Jones averaged 128 Yards from Scrimmage with 4 Tds over his final 8 Games. Extrapolated that becomes 2048 Total Yards and 8 Tds. The next season?? 773 Total Yards and 5 Tds

In 2004, Julius Jones averaged 128.3 Yards from scrimmage with 7 TDs over his final 7 games. That's on pace for 2053 Total Yards and 16 TDs. The next season...1211 Total Yards and 5 tds--not terrible at all, but as a late 1st rounder, he stunk.

That said, they drafted Brandon Jackson early last season, and Wynn showed some ability. I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs.

The good news is the passing game is one of the best. Rodgers is a little raw, but he has 2 borderline pro-bowlers at receiver, the o-line is pretty darn good as well.

158 Rushes

695 Yards

7 Rushing Tds

20 Receptions

110 Rushing Yards

It cuts both ways. Using this logic, you would likely have avoided Portis and Tiki after 2002; Rudi Johnson after 2003; Larry Johnson after 2005; and Addai after 2006. Your projection makes no sense unless you are expecting Grant to miss 4+ games.

I was really aiming it at guys that go in the late part of the 1st round. Portis was a top 5 pick after 2002, and his splits weren't really that different. Tiki's splits were nearly identical in 2002 as well. Maybe so on Johnson and Addai. I'm not necessarily calling an injury, I just think they will split the carries significantly in GB this year. I don't think 8 games cements a UDFA's place atop the detph chart.

Tiki's splits in 2002 weren't identical, though perhaps it is true that his first half was good enough that the strong second half wouldn't worry you. He had 117.4 fantasy points in the games 1-8, 146.9 in games 9-16.But Portis's splits weren't even close, since he wasn't the opening day starter:

Games 1-8 - 114/562/4 rushing (4.9 ypc), 15/132/1 receiving (8.8 ypr), 99.4 fantasy points (12.4 fppg)

Games 9-16 - 159/946/11 rushing (6.0 ypc), 18/232/1 receiving (12.9 ypr), 189.8 fantasy points (23.7 fppg)

On the bolded statements, your statement about 8 games is debatable, but also somewhat irrelevant. Grant was Green Bay's feature back for 12 games, including postseason, and he put up 1283 total yards and 11 rushing TDs over that span.

Neither Wynn nor Jackson has shown ability close to what Grant did last year, and both had a chance to do so. And there is no evidence that the team will share carries to the degree you are predicting.

 

[The Jacket]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

Very average talent, passing team, RBBC - I've got far more players of interest in the late part of round one.800 yards4 TD

 

[joffer]

I've found that when trying to evaluate guys that were waiver wire gold mines the year before, I tend to underrate the guys i missed out on, and overrate the guys i managed to get. not sure why.

i missed out on Grant, and didn't watch him much, but the more i read about him, the more i like him

260/1120/10

38/260/1

 

[MCguidance]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.

I think this is unfair considering he didn't get the opportunity to start until week 8. It's not like he was in there stinking up the joint in the 1st half of the season. Also, how do you explain him making Seattle look like a pee-wee team out there in the playoffs?

I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs.

LOL. I don't know how Grant's ability to be a workhorse has anything to do with Green Bay having "2 other very capable backs". He most certainly has the body size to shoulder a 300-325 carry load. And I hope by saying "capable" you meant "unproven" (Jax) and "mediocre" (Wynn).Also working in Grant's favor is that he is a 3-down back, which neither of those other guys are. With a new starting QB, they need a RB in there that can perform well on each down. That back is Grant by a mile.

By the same token, neither did Julius Jones.Secondly, I probably could have said that more clearly. I don't see him as a work horse in this offense. I think they'll bring Jackson along, and Wynn will get touches, I believe it's a full blown RBBC in the works.

I don't understand how you figure that it's a RBBC unless Grant gets injured or totally stinks up the joint, considering the head coach already said it was his fault for using a RBBC last year and now has Grant to shoulder the load. Check no further than the second post to read the story. Will Jackson and Wynn see carries? Yes, of course, but every RB1 needs a spell.

 

[ShaqAttaq]

I've found that when trying to evaluate guys that were waiver wire gold mines the year before, I tend to underrate the guys i missed out on, and overrate the guys i managed to get. not sure why.i missed out on Grant, and didn't watch him much, but the more i read about him, the more i like him260/1120/1038/260/1

i tend to go the opposite way. i feel that my teams are somewhat "worse" in year X+1 if i pay 'market value' for a guy that i pulled off the waiver wire (or drafted very late) last year and he performed well. as a result, i almost never have those guys on my teams two consecutive years.

 

[sho nuff]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.In 2002, William Green averaged 92 Rushing Yards over his final 8 games and found the endzone 5 times. He would have finished with nearly 1500 Yards and 10 TDs at that pace. The next season...? 609 Total Yards and 1 TDIn 2004, Kevin Jones averaged 128 Yards from Scrimmage with 4 Tds over his final 8 Games. Extrapolated that becomes 2048 Total Yards and 8 Tds. The next season?? 773 Total Yards and 5 TdsIn 2004, Julius Jones averaged 128.3 Yards from scrimmage with 7 TDs over his final 7 games. That's on pace for 2053 Total Yards and 16 TDs. The next season...1211 Total Yards and 5 tds--not terrible at all, but as a late 1st rounder, he stunk.That said, they drafted Brandon Jackson early last season, and Wynn showed some ability. I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs. The good news is the passing game is one of the best. Rodgers is a little raw, but he has 2 borderline pro-bowlers at receiver, the o-line is pretty darn good as well. 158 Rushes695 Yards7 Rushing Tds20 Receptions110 Rushing Yards

Look at the opponents some of those guys faced though...and their situations.KJ went against some of the weakest run defenses in those last 8 games (and you don't take into account his injuries either).Grant faced the Vikings (and whipped them) in one of his games.Jackson's draft slot means absolutely nothing at this point, I really wish people would quit trying to use this argument (not just with Jackson but with other players).Wynn also showed a poor work ethic and attitude and may not even make the team (special teams might be the only thing that saves him)

 

[sho nuff]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

Very average talent, passing team, RBBC - I've got far more players of interest in the late part of round one.800 yards4 TD

So he is going to get way worse than last year?And where are you people getting this "average talent" thing...its completely laughable.

 

[Stingdiddy]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

Very average talent, passing team, RBBC - I've got far more players of interest in the late part of round one.800 yards4 TD

So he is going to get way worse than last year?And where are you people getting this "average talent" thing...its completely laughable.

I believe the entire Green Bay offense is going to be much worse than last year. Aaron Rodgers is a joke. The Dallas game was a fluke. Defenses are going to make Rodgers beat them and key in on the GB rushing attack. I don't think people realize the impact Favre had on this team. The Packers are going to be down in the 4th quarter more often than not and are going to be in passing situations late in most games.200-225 carries795-900 rushing yards5 TD'sSincerely,Packer Fan

 

[sho nuff]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

Very average talent, passing team, RBBC - I've got far more players of interest in the late part of round one.800 yards4 TD

So he is going to get way worse than last year?And where are you people getting this "average talent" thing...its completely laughable.

I believe the entire Green Bay offense is going to be much worse than last year. Aaron Rodgers is a joke. The Dallas game was a fluke. Defenses are going to make Rodgers beat them and key in on the GB rushing attack. I don't think people realize the impact Favre had on this team. The Packers are going to be down in the 4th quarter more often than not and are going to be in passing situations late in most games.200-225 carries795-900 rushing yards5 TD'sSincerely,Packer Fan

He is a joke and the Dallas game was a fluke? What makes you think that?So the defense will suck too and they will always be down huh?Umm...ok.Barring injury, I see no possible way his numbers are that bad.

 

[MCguidance]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

Very average talent, passing team, RBBC - I've got far more players of interest in the late part of round one.800 yards4 TD

So he is going to get way worse than last year?And where are you people getting this "average talent" thing...its completely laughable.

I believe the entire Green Bay offense is going to be much worse than last year. Aaron Rodgers is a joke. The Dallas game was a fluke. Defenses are going to make Rodgers beat them and key in on the GB rushing attack. I don't think people realize the impact Favre had on this team. The Packers are going to be down in the 4th quarter more often than not and are going to be in passing situations late in most games.200-225 carries795-900 rushing yards5 TD'sSincerely,Packer Fan

Why don't you tell us how you really feel? I like this post, actually. For my projections take the complete opposite of everything he said. Actually, that's not all true. I do expect some growing pains with Rodgers and, to a degree, Grant. However, I believe they have a good enough system intact to have success this year. I tend to think you are overvaluing the impact Favre had on the team.

 

[mdog1967]

Grant did almost all of his damage in the 2nd half of last season. I've learned to be weary of 2nd half studs.In 2002, William Green averaged 92 Rushing Yards over his final 8 games and found the endzone 5 times. He would have finished with nearly 1500 Yards and 10 TDs at that pace. The next season...? 609 Total Yards and 1 TDIn 2004, Kevin Jones averaged 128 Yards from Scrimmage with 4 Tds over his final 8 Games. Extrapolated that becomes 2048 Total Yards and 8 Tds. The next season?? 773 Total Yards and 5 TdsIn 2004, Julius Jones averaged 128.3 Yards from scrimmage with 7 TDs over his final 7 games. That's on pace for 2053 Total Yards and 16 TDs. The next season...1211 Total Yards and 5 tds--not terrible at all, but as a late 1st rounder, he stunk.That said, they drafted Brandon Jackson early last season, and Wynn showed some ability. I find it hard to believe Grant is a work horse type, especially with 2 other very capable backs. The good news is the passing game is one of the best. Rodgers is a little raw, but he has 2 borderline pro-bowlers at receiver, the o-line is pretty darn good as well. 158 Rushes695 Yards7 Rushing Tds20 Receptions110 Rushing Yards

I agree with your weariness of second half wonders. The rest not a chance...

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

Very average talent, passing team, RBBC - I've got far more players of interest in the late part of round one.800 yards4 TD

So he is going to get way worse than last year?And where are you people getting this "average talent" thing...its completely laughable.

I believe the entire Green Bay offense is going to be much worse than last year. Aaron Rodgers is a joke. The Dallas game was a fluke. Defenses are going to make Rodgers beat them and key in on the GB rushing attack. I don't think people realize the impact Favre had on this team. The Packers are going to be down in the 4th quarter more often than not and are going to be in passing situations late in most games.200-225 carries795-900 rushing yards5 TD'sSincerely,Packer Fan

Ya know, before he was surrounded by 3 up and coming young players including 2 budding stars and an offensive line that got its act together, Brett Favre had turned into an absolute joke as well.How much of Favre's resurgence was a 38 year old player suddenly remembering how to play football, and how much of it was and over the hill QB who had clearly fallen into a downward spiral getting better players around him?Point being, given what we saw the two years adding up to last year (and to some extent what we saw of Favre even last year when Grant was not playing) maybe Favre wasn't what was making this offense click. Maybe he was, even, far from it.

 

[new-guru]

Is anyone worried about Grant not getting a contract extension?

Is there one insight?

I wish he was practicing.

I watched all his games. He has an unbeleivable burst through the hole and even better vision.

He will shock people this year.

1350 Rush yds 13 tds

250 Rec. Yds 3tds

Greenbay will control the ball and run alot.

Grant will see lots of goalline carries

 

[sholditch]

Anyone else smell a little Kevan Barlow here? he has a great 8 games and a really nice playoff game. Packers drafted B. jackson in the 2nd round who they are saying looks great and played well to end last season. grant is holding out or threatning due to contract right now.

I dunno what to think here regarding thsi guy. he was undrafted and untill last season on ND fans knew of him!!

If he gets in Camp and all goes great I can see a decent season but I would still see Jackson getting carries as well as Jack IMO is a better reciever.

Grant - 280 - 1100 - 7 assuming all goes well.

Grant is not holding out...he does not have a contract.Where Jackson was drafted is irrelevant (I have always hated that argument).

Assuming all goes well you think he will do just barely better yardage wise than last season?

Tell that to Thomas Jones. Probably not as big an impact here but it can have an impact.I am in the camp that thinks Grant is a good back made great (over 8 games) by a HOF QB and being a relative unknown. The packers RB situation going into 07 looked abysmal, and defenses concentrated on stopping Favre. People should not discount the affect that going against Brett Favre vs some average QB has on defensive planning. Favre allowed Grant to do what he did just by being on the field. Rodgers will not be providing any cover this year. Instead of looking to stop the prolific GB passing game at all costs, the opposing defenses will instead try to make Rodgers beat them at first. If Rodger can come out of the gates tearing up secondaries and making everyone forget about Favre, then Grant can have a good year, but I will not be hedging my 1st round bets based on that assumption. Grant comes back to earth with Rodgers at the helm, and Jackson sees more opportunities because of that:

270 for 1161 and 7 TDs

35 for 250 and 2

Great second round value, not so much where he's going

 

[BoulderBob]

Grant was impressive last year, even if his numbers were boosted due to his surrounding talent(check the Packers pre-season games to see how effective their spread-like offense is with Rodgers). After watching him at Notre Dame, I didn't think much of his chances in the NFL, but he has improved significantly over the past four years. As long as he continues to take his vitamins, he is a solid #1/#2 fantasy RB. I don't see the Packers falling off dramatically, but I do not like Grant's playoff schedule at all, due to my belief that the Jaguars/Bears defenses will be elite if they remain healthy. Will gladly take Grant at the 6 hole, and trade him around week 10 barring injuries to the said defenses.

14 Games

280 Carries

1200 Yards

10 TD's

40 receptions

200 yards

1 TD

 

[sho nuff]

Anyone else smell a little Kevan Barlow here? he has a great 8 games and a really nice playoff game. Packers drafted B. jackson in the 2nd round who they are saying looks great and played well to end last season. grant is holding out or threatning due to contract right now.

I dunno what to think here regarding thsi guy. he was undrafted and untill last season on ND fans knew of him!!

If he gets in Camp and all goes great I can see a decent season but I would still see Jackson getting carries as well as Jack IMO is a better reciever.

Grant - 280 - 1100 - 7 assuming all goes well.

Grant is not holding out...he does not have a contract.Where Jackson was drafted is irrelevant (I have always hated that argument).

Assuming all goes well you think he will do just barely better yardage wise than last season?

Tell that to Thomas Jones. Probably not as big an impact here but it can have an impact.I am in the camp that thinks Grant is a good back made great (over 8 games) by a HOF QB and being a relative unknown. The packers RB situation going into 07 looked abysmal, and defenses concentrated on stopping Favre. People should not discount the affect that going against Brett Favre vs some average QB has on defensive planning. Favre allowed Grant to do what he did just by being on the field. Rodgers will not be providing any cover this year. Instead of looking to stop the prolific GB passing game at all costs, the opposing defenses will instead try to make Rodgers beat them at first. If Rodger can come out of the gates tearing up secondaries and making everyone forget about Favre, then Grant can have a good year, but I will not be hedging my 1st round bets based on that assumption. Grant comes back to earth with Rodgers at the helm, and Jackson sees more opportunities because of that:

270 for 1161 and 7 TDs

35 for 250 and 2

Great second round value, not so much where he's going

I simply dont see him doing worse than last year's numbers with a full slate of games rather than the limited action last year.The line is in year 3 of the zb scheme...Colledge and Spitz in their 3rd year in the lague..Wells as his 3rd year as a starter....3rd year of the line basically being all together...and they have improved over the past 2 years...i think that part is huge for grant.

 

[flranger]

Beware the player with mediocre talent in great situations. I would also apply this to Ernest Graham. Both came on like crazy last year and both play behind good and getting even better run blocking lines. While I suspect the Bucs, Raiders, and Packers RBs will be successful I believe it is solely because of the offensive lines.

If I'm a betting man, I play up Grant and Graham to as many people in my league as possible and let them deal with the possibility of two fumbles and a quick hook. Even lowly Deshawn Wynn averaged over 4.0 yards per carry and 4 TDs on only 50 touches last year and Brandon Jackson had 113 yards rushing week 17 while Ryan Grant rested.

My prediction: 204 carries / 895 yards / 6 TDs - 38 catches / 215 yards / 2 TDs

Someone else is bound to get at least 400 yards on that roster.

 

[sho nuff]

Beware the player with mediocre talent in great situations. I would also apply this to Ernest Graham. Both came on like crazy last year and both play behind good and getting even better run blocking lines. While I suspect the Bucs, Raiders, and Packers RBs will be successful I believe it is solely because of the offensive lines.

If I'm a betting man, I play up Grant and Graham to as many people in my league as possible and let them deal with the possibility of two fumbles and a quick hook. Even lowly Deshawn Wynn averaged over 4.0 yards per carry and 4 TDs on only 50 touches last year and Brandon Jackson had 113 yards rushing week 17 while Ryan Grant rested.

My prediction: 204 carries / 895 yards / 6 TDs - 38 catches / 215 yards / 2 TDs

Someone else is bound to get at least 400 yards on that roster.

What makes you think he has mediocre talent?Solely because of the offensive line? So why were Jackson and Wynn mostly unsuccessful running the ball?

Fact is Grant brought something different to the table...and most sane people saw that.

204 carries? Are you predicting injury?

Jackson had 113 yards against a bad D...while he looked better...don't base too much on those stats. Grant already had 6 carries for 57 yards and a TD in that game.

Wynn may not even make the team and has attitude issues.

I simply don't think anything you posted supports your prediction at all.

 

[Ned]

Average talent who will suffer the most with Favre gone.225 carries, 910 yards, 6 TD's16 rec, 110 yards, 0 TD

Very average talent, passing team, RBBC - I've got far more players of interest in the late part of round one.800 yards4 TD

So he is going to get way worse than last year?And where are you people getting this "average talent" thing...its completely laughable.

I believe the entire Green Bay offense is going to be much worse than last year. Aaron Rodgers is a joke. The Dallas game was a fluke. Defenses are going to make Rodgers beat them and key in on the GB rushing attack. I don't think people realize the impact Favre had on this team. The Packers are going to be down in the 4th quarter more often than not and are going to be in passing situations late in most games.200-225 carries795-900 rushing yards5 TD'sSincerely,Packer Fan

Ya know, before he was surrounded by 3 up and coming young players including 2 budding stars and an offensive line that got its act together, Brett Favre had turned into an absolute joke as well.How much of Favre's resurgence was a 38 year old player suddenly remembering how to play football, and how much of it was and over the hill QB who had clearly fallen into a downward spiral getting better players around him?Point being, given what we saw the two years adding up to last year (and to some extent what we saw of Favre even last year when Grant was not playing) maybe Favre wasn't what was making this offense click. Maybe he was, even, far from it.

very i love how logical posts always get ignored.

 

[cstu]

Beware the player with mediocre talent in great situations. I would also apply this to Ernest Graham. Both came on like crazy last year and both play behind good and getting even better run blocking lines. While I suspect the Bucs, Raiders, and Packers RBs will be successful I believe it is solely because of the offensive lines.

If I'm a betting man, I play up Grant and Graham to as many people in my league as possible and let them deal with the possibility of two fumbles and a quick hook. Even lowly Deshawn Wynn averaged over 4.0 yards per carry and 4 TDs on only 50 touches last year and Brandon Jackson had 113 yards rushing week 17 while Ryan Grant rested.

My prediction: 204 carries / 895 yards / 6 TDs - 38 catches / 215 yards / 2 TDs

Someone else is bound to get at least 400 yards on that roster.

What makes you think he has mediocre talent?Solely because of the offensive line? So why were Jackson and Wynn mostly unsuccessful running the ball?

Fact is Grant brought something different to the table...and most sane people saw that.

204 carries? Are you predicting injury?

Jackson had 113 yards against a bad D...while he looked better...don't base too much on those stats. Grant already had 6 carries for 57 yards and a TD in that game.

Wynn may not even make the team and has attitude issues.

I simply don't think anything you posted supports your prediction at all.

How many guys follow his path to a starting job and become much more than one-year wonders? UDFA, practice squad for his rookie, injured for his second year, then nearly a year and half after his injury the Giants, with not exactly the best backfield in the NFL, trade him for a 6th round pick instead of keeping him and cutting Reuben Droughs.I've watched the guy play quite a bit and here's my take on him - I like his style of running, but it's one thing to play well in just over a half a season with a HOF QB and it's another to do it year-in-year-out - especially with a Tedford product at QB. I do expect him to compile some good numbers because he's on a good team with talent around him and there's very little competition for carries. He should easily get 250 carries at even at 4.0 YPC he should be good for 1000 yards and 7-10 TD's. I just don't see him as special and he's easily replaceable. I like him in redrafts but not at all in dynasties.