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Player Spotlight: Ryan Grant (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Ryan Grant Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I see a nice year for Grant (or B.Jackson). What I mean is I think someone is going to have a very nice year in GB and since Grant is the starter I would assume it's him. I really like Jackson's talent and if he starts getting carries, could spell trouble for Grant

Grant's #'s

320 carries

1420 yards

10 td's

24 catches

124 yards

top 10 projection

 
I think he loses the starting job by the end of the year and is, at best, part of a RBBC. So he's very hard to project IMO.

But he's just not very good.

 
Doesn't catch passes

Average talent

Max effort player

I realize he's penciled in as the 2 down RB to start the season, but I see too much 'he may lose his job' risk to justify where he's being drafted.

 
Ryan Grant was a 2 headed monster last year. His home road splits were

Home 149 728 4.9 57 3

Away 163 475 2.9 17 1

That's just plain bad- and is not at all in line with his splits from the previous year.

Home 83 430 5.2 30 3

Away 105 526 5.0 66 5

A return to that type of road production would make him a high #2 RB again. One caveat though- His road schedule in 2007 (after he started taking the bulk of the carries) was KC, Den, Det, Dal, STL, Chi. Thats a pretty soft lineup of road games.

Last year he was a good home start- and this year he plays

Stl, Minn, Cle, TB, Det, Chi, Pitt on the road during the FF season. With that road schedule and his home production last year I can see grant putting up 1400 total yards and 7 TDs as long as he doesn't fall into a RBBC.

 
There's no good reason to think Grant will "lose his job" or become part of a platoon approach. Among Green Bay's RBs, Grant is the man. People who don't follow the team closely might not be confident in his ability to keep producing on the field and in the FF box scores because he isn't flashy, but I expect him to be better this year than last, when he held out all summer and had a hamstring injury linger through many weeks.

A lock for 1,200 yards from scrimmage, minimum, and I expect the TDs (5) and ypc (3.9) to increase. A good RB2, and a great value in the third round if so many people are skittish about drafting him.

 
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There's no good reason to think Grant will "lose his job" or become part of a platoon approach. Among Green Bay's RBs, Grant is the man. People who don't follow the team closely might not be confident in his ability to keep producing on the field and in the FF box scores because he isn't flashy, but I expect him to be better this year than last, when he held out all summer and had a hamstring injury linger through many weeks.A lock for 1,200 yards from scrimmage, minimum, and I expect the TDs (5) and ypc (3.9) to increase. A good RB2, and a great value in the third round if so many people are skittish about drafting him.
That's a pretty good breakdown and fair assessment. If you can get Grant at the right value and don't reach for him in your draft, he could be one of those players that allows you to take a chance in the 2nd round for a non-RB if you see a WR or QB worth taking at that spot.
 
People who don't follow the team closely might not be confident in his ability to keep producing on the field and in the FF box scores because he isn't flashy
I disagree there, me and almost every GB fan i know doesn't feel Grant is anything more then mediocre at best. i think BJ will start to eat into his workload this season as he has produced quite well when given the opportunity.Edited to add projections for Grant215 carries/817 rush13 rec/78 receiving6 Total TD's
 
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If Grant lost rushing attempts (about 100, or 6+ per game by your count) I don't think it would be to Jackson, who averaged only 3 per game and 40% of his touches on receptions.

Jackson had two pretty good games of 10 attempts for 50 yards and 11 for 80... only 24 rushes in all the other games he played last year.

 
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Doesn't catch passes

Average talent

Max effort player

I realize he's penciled in as the 2 down RB to start the season, but I see too much 'he may lose his job' risk to justify where he's being drafted.
He didn't catch passes in 2008. He caught a lot of passes in 2007. So I would argue that your statement is an opinion, at best. He caught 30 balls in 2007 playing just half a season as the starter. So he CAN catch passes, just not sure if they will GIVE him passes to catch. Not enough info based on 1 1/2 yrs of starter status playing time to say one way or the other.As to those saying "he's just not very good", he ran for 950 yds in just half a year in 2007 and he just ran for 1200 yds in 2008. The reason his final #'s didn't look good was because he only scored 4 TDs on those 1200 yds. That's an anomaly and not an indication that he failed to produce. Very much like T. Jones only scored 1 TD on 1119 yds in 2007 and scored 13 TDs on 1312 yds in 2008, you will very rarely see that low of a TD production on that many carries and yds. If he had scored 10 TDs instead of 4, I think most people would be much higher on him (most people like 1200/10).

The most ominous sign from last year was his 3.9 ypc. However, he had a 5.1 ypc the year before on 188 carries. Which is the real Ryan Grant? I can't say for sure, but I'm quite sure he's not as good as 5.1 nor is he as bad as 3.9. Somewhere in the middle, around 4.3-4.4 ypc, would work and would be quite respectable. Coming into the season healthy, not holding out or missing TC, and with the team now in its 2nd year PF (post-Favre), his situation should be much more stable and easier to produce in.

He may not be an elite talent, but complete scrubs don't finish 9th in the NFL in rushing yds in their 1st year as a starter and log 1200 rushing yds. Especially coming into the season without any practice time and injured with an injury that can linger (hamstring). I'd be very surprised if he lost his job this year unless he severely underperforms. I don't see that happening.

 
Doesn't catch passes

Average talent

Max effort player

I realize he's penciled in as the 2 down RB to start the season, but I see too much 'he may lose his job' risk to justify where he's being drafted.
He didn't catch passes in 2008. He caught a lot of passes in 2007. So I would argue that your statement is an opinion, at best. He caught 30 balls in 2007 playing just half a season as the starter. So he CAN catch passes, just not sure if they will GIVE him passes to catch. Not enough info based on 1 1/2 yrs of starter status playing time to say one way or the other.As to those saying "he's just not very good", he ran for 950 yds in just half a year in 2007 and he just ran for 1200 yds in 2008. The reason his final #'s didn't look good was because he only scored 4 TDs on those 1200 yds. That's an anomaly and not an indication that he failed to produce. Very much like T. Jones only scored 1 TD on 1119 yds in 2007 and scored 13 TDs on 1312 yds in 2008, you will very rarely see that low of a TD production on that many carries and yds. If he had scored 10 TDs instead of 4, I think most people would be much higher on him (most people like 1200/10).

The most ominous sign from last year was his 3.9 ypc. However, he had a 5.1 ypc the year before on 188 carries. Which is the real Ryan Grant? I can't say for sure, but I'm quite sure he's not as good as 5.1 nor is he as bad as 3.9. Somewhere in the middle, around 4.3-4.4 ypc, would work and would be quite respectable. Coming into the season healthy, not holding out or missing TC, and with the team now in its 2nd year PF (post-Favre), his situation should be much more stable and easier to produce in.

He may not be an elite talent, but complete scrubs don't finish 9th in the NFL in rushing yds in their 1st year as a starter and log 1200 rushing yds. Especially coming into the season without any practice time and injured with an injury that can linger (hamstring). I'd be very surprised if he lost his job this year unless he severely underperforms. I don't see that happening.
:goodposting: I was going to post something similar, especially about his pass catching ability.

 
People who don't follow the team closely might not be confident in his ability to keep producing on the field and in the FF box scores because he isn't flashy
I disagree there, me and almost every GB fan i know doesn't feel Grant is anything more then mediocre at best. i think BJ will start to eat into his workload this season as he has produced quite well when given the opportunity.Edited to add projections for Grant215 carries/817 rush13 rec/78 receiving6 Total TD's
Didn't you think the same about Jackson last year?And many would consider Grant's year to be disappointing and Jackson did not see the field that much.Not sure what GB fans you know though...I have not found many that think he is nothing more than mediocre at best.Though...we have had this discussion before.300 carries, 1250 yards, 25 receptions, 150 yards9 total TDs
 
Part of Grant's low TDs and low YPC is from the lack of the big plays last year.

He was almost the definition of "take away the big play and what happens to his numbers" guy.

2007 he had some big runs (I remember the two long ones, one against Dallas and one against Chicago)...those are huge in adding up more ypc. Now, just those two runs don't make him go to 5.1. But he busted a few more of the 20 yarders in 2007 as well.

Many people noticed he did not seem to be running as decisively last year. Hopefully he is back towards the 2007 style of running.

 
Part of Grant's low TDs and low YPC is from the lack of the big plays last year.He was almost the definition of "take away the big play and what happens to his numbers" guy.2007 he had some big runs (I remember the two long ones, one against Dallas and one against Chicago)...those are huge in adding up more ypc. Now, just those two runs don't make him go to 5.1. But he busted a few more of the 20 yarders in 2007 as well.Many people noticed he did not seem to be running as decisively last year. Hopefully he is back towards the 2007 style of running.
:unsure: I agree he didn't look as decisive nor as explosive last year compared to 2007. Maybe he fooled us in 2007. Maybe his injury limited him last year. I'm not sure, but I'm also not going to write him off due to one "bad" year (if 1200 yds is bad) in only his 1st full year as a starter.
 
Doesn't catch passes

Average talent

Max effort player

I realize he's penciled in as the 2 down RB to start the season, but I see too much 'he may lose his job' risk to justify where he's being drafted.
He didn't catch passes in 2008. He caught a lot of passes in 2007. So I would argue that your statement is an opinion, at best. He caught 30 balls in 2007 playing just half a season as the starter. So he CAN catch passes, just not sure if they will GIVE him passes to catch. Not enough info based on 1 1/2 yrs of starter status playing time to say one way or the other.As to those saying "he's just not very good", he ran for 950 yds in just half a year in 2007 and he just ran for 1200 yds in 2008. The reason his final #'s didn't look good was because he only scored 4 TDs on those 1200 yds. That's an anomaly and not an indication that he failed to produce. Very much like T. Jones only scored 1 TD on 1119 yds in 2007 and scored 13 TDs on 1312 yds in 2008, you will very rarely see that low of a TD production on that many carries and yds. If he had scored 10 TDs instead of 4, I think most people would be much higher on him (most people like 1200/10).

The most ominous sign from last year was his 3.9 ypc. However, he had a 5.1 ypc the year before on 188 carries. Which is the real Ryan Grant? I can't say for sure, but I'm quite sure he's not as good as 5.1 nor is he as bad as 3.9. Somewhere in the middle, around 4.3-4.4 ypc, would work and would be quite respectable. Coming into the season healthy, not holding out or missing TC, and with the team now in its 2nd year PF (post-Favre), his situation should be much more stable and easier to produce in.

He may not be an elite talent, but complete scrubs don't finish 9th in the NFL in rushing yds in their 1st year as a starter and log 1200 rushing yds. Especially coming into the season without any practice time and injured with an injury that can linger (hamstring). I'd be very surprised if he lost his job this year unless he severely underperforms. I don't see that happening.
He lost the passing down role because he's not very good at it and Brandon Jackson is, that's not an opinion, that's an observation based off what Green Bay's staff said and did involving passing downs and their RB's between training camp 2008 and now. I have yet to read they're considering shaking up this strategy for 2009 and I haven't seen anything from last season to lead one to believe this is a consideration.
 
Doesn't catch passes

Average talent

Max effort player

I realize he's penciled in as the 2 down RB to start the season, but I see too much 'he may lose his job' risk to justify where he's being drafted.
He didn't catch passes in 2008. He caught a lot of passes in 2007. So I would argue that your statement is an opinion, at best. He caught 30 balls in 2007 playing just half a season as the starter. So he CAN catch passes, just not sure if they will GIVE him passes to catch. Not enough info based on 1 1/2 yrs of starter status playing time to say one way or the other.As to those saying "he's just not very good", he ran for 950 yds in just half a year in 2007 and he just ran for 1200 yds in 2008. The reason his final #'s didn't look good was because he only scored 4 TDs on those 1200 yds. That's an anomaly and not an indication that he failed to produce. Very much like T. Jones only scored 1 TD on 1119 yds in 2007 and scored 13 TDs on 1312 yds in 2008, you will very rarely see that low of a TD production on that many carries and yds. If he had scored 10 TDs instead of 4, I think most people would be much higher on him (most people like 1200/10).

The most ominous sign from last year was his 3.9 ypc. However, he had a 5.1 ypc the year before on 188 carries. Which is the real Ryan Grant? I can't say for sure, but I'm quite sure he's not as good as 5.1 nor is he as bad as 3.9. Somewhere in the middle, around 4.3-4.4 ypc, would work and would be quite respectable. Coming into the season healthy, not holding out or missing TC, and with the team now in its 2nd year PF (post-Favre), his situation should be much more stable and easier to produce in.

He may not be an elite talent, but complete scrubs don't finish 9th in the NFL in rushing yds in their 1st year as a starter and log 1200 rushing yds. Especially coming into the season without any practice time and injured with an injury that can linger (hamstring). I'd be very surprised if he lost his job this year unless he severely underperforms. I don't see that happening.
He lost the passing down role because he's not very good at it and Brandon Jackson is, that's not an opinion, that's an observation based off what Green Bay's staff said and did involving passing downs and their RB's between training camp 2008 and now. I have yet to read they're considering shaking up this strategy for 2009 and I haven't seen anything from last season to lead one to believe this is a consideration.
This is from 2007 based on receptions and targets (rec/targets -- catch %) looking at some of the best-catching RBs with 30+ receptionsLT 60/86 -- 70%

Westy 90/120 -- 75%

Portis 47/60 -- 78%

Gore 53/69 -- 77%

Graham 49/70 -- 70%

MJD 40/55 -- 73%

SJax 38/52 -- 73%

R. Bush 73/98 -- 75%

Ryan Grant 30/37 -- 81%

Explain to me what makes you think he's not very good at it? The guy caught 30 balls in just over half a year and caught the ball at a higher % than any of the top pass-catching RB's in the league. I don't have an answer as to why he didn't get more chances in 2008 to catch the ball but I don't ever recall reading anything about the GB coaching staff saying he wasn't good at catching the ball. If you have something, I'd love to see some link stating that. I'm not saying Brandon Jackson can't catch the ball well or that he can't catch it better than Ryan Grant. Good chance he can and maybe that's why he was brought in to catch more. But whether or not that trend will continue remains to be seen as it was only 1 year. However, saying he's not good at it goes completely against the stats above.

 
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I'll go ahead and add that I also just saw that he had the lowest ypr of all the RB's with 30+ receptions. To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of that. It's a stat that I don't really pay attention to with RB's very much and not even too much for WR's. That # doesn't always correlate with how well a WR does on the field. For example, guys like Berrian can have a 20 ypr season like 2008 and Welker has been at 10.5 or below the last 3 yrs. I think a big factor into that # is how a WR is used. The same probably goes for RB's as well although I don't really use or know that stat enough to say for sure. Maybe it's more important than I think and it means Grant did terribly catching the ball (despite his high catch %) although I would definitely like to see some evidence of that.

Based on the #'s, though, that's the only knock on his receiving abilities from 2007 and I'm not sure it's even a knock. Reggie Bush also had a very low ypr that year but I don't think it meant he was any less effective as a pass-catcher.

 
Doesn't catch passes

Average talent

Max effort player

I realize he's penciled in as the 2 down RB to start the season, but I see too much 'he may lose his job' risk to justify where he's being drafted.
He didn't catch passes in 2008. He caught a lot of passes in 2007. So I would argue that your statement is an opinion, at best. He caught 30 balls in 2007 playing just half a season as the starter. So he CAN catch passes, just not sure if they will GIVE him passes to catch. Not enough info based on 1 1/2 yrs of starter status playing time to say one way or the other.As to those saying "he's just not very good", he ran for 950 yds in just half a year in 2007 and he just ran for 1200 yds in 2008. The reason his final #'s didn't look good was because he only scored 4 TDs on those 1200 yds. That's an anomaly and not an indication that he failed to produce. Very much like T. Jones only scored 1 TD on 1119 yds in 2007 and scored 13 TDs on 1312 yds in 2008, you will very rarely see that low of a TD production on that many carries and yds. If he had scored 10 TDs instead of 4, I think most people would be much higher on him (most people like 1200/10).

The most ominous sign from last year was his 3.9 ypc. However, he had a 5.1 ypc the year before on 188 carries. Which is the real Ryan Grant? I can't say for sure, but I'm quite sure he's not as good as 5.1 nor is he as bad as 3.9. Somewhere in the middle, around 4.3-4.4 ypc, would work and would be quite respectable. Coming into the season healthy, not holding out or missing TC, and with the team now in its 2nd year PF (post-Favre), his situation should be much more stable and easier to produce in.

He may not be an elite talent, but complete scrubs don't finish 9th in the NFL in rushing yds in their 1st year as a starter and log 1200 rushing yds. Especially coming into the season without any practice time and injured with an injury that can linger (hamstring). I'd be very surprised if he lost his job this year unless he severely underperforms. I don't see that happening.
He lost the passing down role because he's not very good at it and Brandon Jackson is, that's not an opinion, that's an observation based off what Green Bay's staff said and did involving passing downs and their RB's between training camp 2008 and now. I have yet to read they're considering shaking up this strategy for 2009 and I haven't seen anything from last season to lead one to believe this is a consideration.
This is from 2007 based on receptions and targets (rec/targets -- catch %) looking at some of the best-catching RBs with 30+ receptionsLT 60/86 -- 70%

Westy 90/120 -- 75%

Portis 47/60 -- 78%

Gore 53/69 -- 77%

Graham 49/70 -- 70%

MJD 40/55 -- 73%

SJax 38/52 -- 73%

R. Bush 73/98 -- 75%

Ryan Grant 30/37 -- 81%

Explain to me what makes you think he's not very good at it? The guy caught 30 balls in just over half a year and caught the ball at a higher % than any of the top pass-catching RB's in the league. I don't have an answer as to why he didn't get more chances in 2008 to catch the ball but I don't ever recall reading anything about the GB coaching staff saying he wasn't good at catching the ball. If you have something, I'd love to see some link stating that. I'm not saying Brandon Jackson can't catch the ball well or that he can't catch it better than Ryan Grant. Good chance he can and maybe that's why he was brought in to catch more. But whether or not that trend will continue remains to be seen as it was only 1 year. However, saying he's not good at it goes completely against the stats above.
We've been over this before, I'm not a big stat guy when it comes to football. Stats lie. There's a reason Green Bay replaced him in the passing downs role, why isn't important, he just was.I don't save links, I read blurbs then copy + paste relevant ones into a DB with all of my notes, there were enough blurbs I read about Green Bay liking Jackson more than Grant in a passing downs role for me to mention 'multiple times' in my notes.

 
Doesn't catch passes

Average talent

Max effort player

I realize he's penciled in as the 2 down RB to start the season, but I see too much 'he may lose his job' risk to justify where he's being drafted.
He didn't catch passes in 2008. He caught a lot of passes in 2007. So I would argue that your statement is an opinion, at best. He caught 30 balls in 2007 playing just half a season as the starter. So he CAN catch passes, just not sure if they will GIVE him passes to catch. Not enough info based on 1 1/2 yrs of starter status playing time to say one way or the other.As to those saying "he's just not very good", he ran for 950 yds in just half a year in 2007 and he just ran for 1200 yds in 2008. The reason his final #'s didn't look good was because he only scored 4 TDs on those 1200 yds. That's an anomaly and not an indication that he failed to produce. Very much like T. Jones only scored 1 TD on 1119 yds in 2007 and scored 13 TDs on 1312 yds in 2008, you will very rarely see that low of a TD production on that many carries and yds. If he had scored 10 TDs instead of 4, I think most people would be much higher on him (most people like 1200/10).

The most ominous sign from last year was his 3.9 ypc. However, he had a 5.1 ypc the year before on 188 carries. Which is the real Ryan Grant? I can't say for sure, but I'm quite sure he's not as good as 5.1 nor is he as bad as 3.9. Somewhere in the middle, around 4.3-4.4 ypc, would work and would be quite respectable. Coming into the season healthy, not holding out or missing TC, and with the team now in its 2nd year PF (post-Favre), his situation should be much more stable and easier to produce in.

He may not be an elite talent, but complete scrubs don't finish 9th in the NFL in rushing yds in their 1st year as a starter and log 1200 rushing yds. Especially coming into the season without any practice time and injured with an injury that can linger (hamstring). I'd be very surprised if he lost his job this year unless he severely underperforms. I don't see that happening.
He lost the passing down role because he's not very good at it and Brandon Jackson is, that's not an opinion, that's an observation based off what Green Bay's staff said and did involving passing downs and their RB's between training camp 2008 and now. I have yet to read they're considering shaking up this strategy for 2009 and I haven't seen anything from last season to lead one to believe this is a consideration.
This is from 2007 based on receptions and targets (rec/targets -- catch %) looking at some of the best-catching RBs with 30+ receptionsLT 60/86 -- 70%

Westy 90/120 -- 75%

Portis 47/60 -- 78%

Gore 53/69 -- 77%

Graham 49/70 -- 70%

MJD 40/55 -- 73%

SJax 38/52 -- 73%

R. Bush 73/98 -- 75%

Ryan Grant 30/37 -- 81%

Explain to me what makes you think he's not very good at it? The guy caught 30 balls in just over half a year and caught the ball at a higher % than any of the top pass-catching RB's in the league. I don't have an answer as to why he didn't get more chances in 2008 to catch the ball but I don't ever recall reading anything about the GB coaching staff saying he wasn't good at catching the ball. If you have something, I'd love to see some link stating that. I'm not saying Brandon Jackson can't catch the ball well or that he can't catch it better than Ryan Grant. Good chance he can and maybe that's why he was brought in to catch more. But whether or not that trend will continue remains to be seen as it was only 1 year. However, saying he's not good at it goes completely against the stats above.
We've been over this before, I'm not a big stat guy when it comes to football. Stats lie. There's a reason Green Bay replaced him in the passing downs role, why isn't important, he just was.I don't save links, I read blurbs then copy + paste relevant ones into a DB with all of my notes, there were enough blurbs I read about Green Bay liking Jackson more than Grant in a passing downs role for me to mention 'multiple times' in my notes.
SOME stats lie. Others don't. You say why he was replaced isn't important. I think knowing why is indeed important to try to determine what may happen in the future. Either way, we'll just agree to disagree. I'm not even saying he will be more involved in the passing game than last year. That role may indeed now be squarely BJ's role. But, while you may not be a big stat guy, the stats show that Grant was more than an adequate pass catcher as a RB. 30 receptions at an 81% catch rate in half a season clearly demonstrate he can do so. Just because B. Jackson may be even better at it and GB prefers having him in on passing downs does NOT = Grant can't catch the ball well. They are not mutually exclusive. You seem to think they are.
 
Grant may be able to 'catch' the ball, but he doesn't do jack with it after he's got it, as his career 5.4 y/r attests. That's not just bad, it's damn near worst in the NFL. Very few guys with more than a handful of receptions have done less.

Which is, IMO, indicative of Grant's bigger problem. He doesn't see the field well at all and can't make anyone miss. The coaches have called him out on that twice now and said he has to do more when he gets through the line. And even when they get him the ball in space he doesn't make much yardage.

 
Grant may be able to 'catch' the ball, but he doesn't do jack with it after he's got it, as his career 5.4 y/r attests. That's not just bad, it's damn near worst in the NFL. Very few guys with more than a handful of receptions have done less.Which is, IMO, indicative of Grant's bigger problem. He doesn't see the field well at all and can't make anyone miss. The coaches have called him out on that twice now and said he has to do more when he gets through the line. And even when they get him the ball in space he doesn't make much yardage.
very :goodposting: I also think Grant will lose his starting job by mid season. He is as big as a barn on the field(the way he moves), you can't miss him. Not sure Jackson is any better, it looks like a long season for Green Bay.
 
Grant may be able to 'catch' the ball, but he doesn't do jack with it after he's got it, as his career 5.4 y/r attests. That's not just bad, it's damn near worst in the NFL. Very few guys with more than a handful of receptions have done less.Which is, IMO, indicative of Grant's bigger problem. He doesn't see the field well at all and can't make anyone miss. The coaches have called him out on that twice now and said he has to do more when he gets through the line. And even when they get him the ball in space he doesn't make much yardage.
Grant is that one cut and go type of a RB and is very useful in the running attack when he runs down hill. His big run ablity comes from running down hill and breaking tackles. He lacked power last year and the speed he exhibited when he ran so well in those 8 games as a starter in the 2007 year. It is said that is is due to his injury and not having a full and healthy training camp to get his body and mind fully ready for the season. I guess we will know if it makes a difference this year. I would agree he is not a moves guy and is not shifty and going to create a lot of big runs by making people people miss with Deion Sander type moves. Many good RB's are rested and not in pass catching packages as other guys on their team are better suited for that role and offer the team another weapon. Leon Washignton, J. Norwood, Faulk etc are guys that do this for their teams now.
 
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I'll go ahead and add that I also just saw that he had the lowest ypr of all the RB's with 30+ receptions. To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of that. It's a stat that I don't really pay attention to with RB's very much and not even too much for WR's. That # doesn't always correlate with how well a WR does on the field. For example, guys like Berrian can have a 20 ypr season like 2008 and Welker has been at 10.5 or below the last 3 yrs. I think a big factor into that # is how a WR is used. The same probably goes for RB's as well although I don't really use or know that stat enough to say for sure. Maybe it's more important than I think and it means Grant did terribly catching the ball (despite his high catch %) although I would definitely like to see some evidence of that.Based on the #'s, though, that's the only knock on his receiving abilities from 2007 and I'm not sure it's even a knock. Reggie Bush also had a very low ypr that year but I don't think it meant he was any less effective as a pass-catcher
You've gotta look at the y/c and the number of receptions together. Berrian had 48 catches to go with 20 yard average while welker had 100+ to go with his 10. Reggie Bush had a low y/c but caught a huge amount of balls for a RB. Grant sits on the bottom end of y/c without racking up a lot of catches. If you pro rate Grant's catches from 2007 (he got 22 carries in week 8 so I start there as him being the feature back) he is looking at 44 catches a year. not bad, but that rate isn't some huge usage rate that would excuse such a low y/c. His improved (but on many fewer catches) rate in 2008 was still in the bottom half of the league. Maybe GBs line isn't good at blocking on screens, maybe its Grants fault. I can't say, but I think that BJ getting 12 more catches last year in 3 fewer games- and no starts- should lead one to favor the conclusion that BJ should be expected to take a lot of the 3rd down work in GB this year.
 
GB has sucked running screens for a few years now.

They were very good at it back with Ahman and when that line was so good...but in recent years, its been bad.

 
baconisgood said:
I'll go ahead and add that I also just saw that he had the lowest ypr of all the RB's with 30+ receptions. To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of that. It's a stat that I don't really pay attention to with RB's very much and not even too much for WR's. That # doesn't always correlate with how well a WR does on the field. For example, guys like Berrian can have a 20 ypr season like 2008 and Welker has been at 10.5 or below the last 3 yrs. I think a big factor into that # is how a WR is used. The same probably goes for RB's as well although I don't really use or know that stat enough to say for sure. Maybe it's more important than I think and it means Grant did terribly catching the ball (despite his high catch %) although I would definitely like to see some evidence of that.Based on the #'s, though, that's the only knock on his receiving abilities from 2007 and I'm not sure it's even a knock. Reggie Bush also had a very low ypr that year but I don't think it meant he was any less effective as a pass-catcher
You've gotta look at the y/c and the number of receptions together. Berrian had 48 catches to go with 20 yard average while welker had 100+ to go with his 10. Reggie Bush had a low y/c but caught a huge amount of balls for a RB. Grant sits on the bottom end of y/c without racking up a lot of catches. If you pro rate Grant's catches from 2007 (he got 22 carries in week 8 so I start there as him being the feature back) he is looking at 44 catches a year. not bad, but that rate isn't some huge usage rate that would excuse such a low y/c. His improved (but on many fewer catches) rate in 2008 was still in the bottom half of the league. Maybe GBs line isn't good at blocking on screens, maybe its Grants fault. I can't say, but I think that BJ getting 12 more catches last year in 3 fewer games- and no starts- should lead one to favor the conclusion that BJ should be expected to take a lot of the 3rd down work in GB this year.
I just did a little stat crunching on the pass catching comparisons:Ryan Grant 08 22 targets 18 catches 81.8% 116 yards 6.4 ypc 1 TDBr Jackson 08 39 targets 30 catches 76.9% 185 yards 6.2 ypc 0 TDNot much difference in effectiveness. I also noticed that Grant had only 4 catches in the first eight games and then grabbed 14 in the second half of the season. Is it possible that his pre-season injuries and lack of work limited his involvement in the passing game early in the year?oh and Chris Johnson 08 62 targets 43 catches 69.4% 260 yards 6.0 ypc 1 TD Isn't he supposed to be the shiftiest thing around? It seems to me that the QB setting up the play and the down field blocking as well as the running back's abilities
 
baconisgood said:
I'll go ahead and add that I also just saw that he had the lowest ypr of all the RB's with 30+ receptions. To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of that. It's a stat that I don't really pay attention to with RB's very much and not even too much for WR's. That # doesn't always correlate with how well a WR does on the field. For example, guys like Berrian can have a 20 ypr season like 2008 and Welker has been at 10.5 or below the last 3 yrs. I think a big factor into that # is how a WR is used. The same probably goes for RB's as well although I don't really use or know that stat enough to say for sure. Maybe it's more important than I think and it means Grant did terribly catching the ball (despite his high catch %) although I would definitely like to see some evidence of that.Based on the #'s, though, that's the only knock on his receiving abilities from 2007 and I'm not sure it's even a knock. Reggie Bush also had a very low ypr that year but I don't think it meant he was any less effective as a pass-catcher
You've gotta look at the y/c and the number of receptions together. Berrian had 48 catches to go with 20 yard average while welker had 100+ to go with his 10. Reggie Bush had a low y/c but caught a huge amount of balls for a RB. Grant sits on the bottom end of y/c without racking up a lot of catches. If you pro rate Grant's catches from 2007 (he got 22 carries in week 8 so I start there as him being the feature back) he is looking at 44 catches a year. not bad, but that rate isn't some huge usage rate that would excuse such a low y/c. His improved (but on many fewer catches) rate in 2008 was still in the bottom half of the league. Maybe GBs line isn't good at blocking on screens, maybe its Grants fault. I can't say, but I think that BJ getting 12 more catches last year in 3 fewer games- and no starts- should lead one to favor the conclusion that BJ should be expected to take a lot of the 3rd down work in GB this year.
I just did a little stat crunching on the pass catching comparisons:Ryan Grant 08 22 targets 18 catches 81.8% 116 yards 6.4 ypc 1 TDBr Jackson 08 39 targets 30 catches 76.9% 185 yards 6.2 ypc 0 TDNot much difference in effectiveness. I also noticed that Grant had only 4 catches in the first eight games and then grabbed 14 in the second half of the season. Is it possible that his pre-season injuries and lack of work limited his involvement in the passing game early in the year?oh and Chris Johnson 08 62 targets 43 catches 69.4% 260 yards 6.0 ypc 1 TD Isn't he supposed to be the shiftiest thing around? It seems to me that the QB setting up the play and the down field blocking as well as the running back's abilities
:eek:IMO Ryan Grant is generally underrated and Brandon Jackson is generally overrated, and a big reason is the perception that Jackson is much better as a receiver and thus as a third down back.
 
I just did a little stat crunching on the pass catching comparisons:Ryan Grant 08 22 targets 18 catches 81.8% 116 yards 6.4 ypc 1 TDBr Jackson 08 39 targets 30 catches 76.9% 185 yards 6.2 ypc 0 TDNot much difference in effectiveness. I also noticed that Grant had only 4 catches in the first eight games and then grabbed 14 in the second half of the season. Is it possible that his pre-season injuries and lack of work limited his involvement in the passing game early in the year?oh and Chris Johnson 08 62 targets 43 catches 69.4% 260 yards 6.0 ypc 1 TD Isn't he supposed to be the shiftiest thing around? It seems to me that the QB setting up the play and the down field blocking as well as the running back's abilities
Ryan Grant caught 30 balls in 2007 when fully healthy and averaged 4.8 y/c while Jackson caught 16 balls for an 8.1 average. Its not conclusive since they have both less than 50 career catches but the potential is there for Grant to lose 3rd down carries.CJ plays in a totally different offense (specifically one without Jennings, Driver and Rodgers/Favre).
 
Career Jackson, 46-6.8

Career Grant, 44-5.4

Neither of them lighting the house on fire there, but it remains a mystery why B Jax didn't see more time last year since he much the better runner in 2008. It's possible the organization promised Grant he'd have every chance to make his performance-based bonuses when he agreed to sign for a lowish base salary.

 
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Deshawn Wynn - will be this year's version of 2007's Ryan Grant/Ernest Graham, 2008's Mewelde Moore.

a 3rd string RB that will be fantasy startable at some point in 2009.

Grant just isnt good. PERIOD.

 
BJackson has all those catches because he is good at it, but he only got 45 carries to Grant's 312. So why does everybody think this pass catching back is going to take over the starting role? RB or WR?

 
Career Jackson, 46-6.8Career Grant, 44-5.4Neither of them lighting the house on fire there, but it remains a mystery why B Jax didn't see more time last year since he much the better runner in 2008. It's possible the organization promised Grant he'd have every chance to make his performance-based bonuses when he agreed to sign for a lowish base salary.
Because they have to run the ball?
 
IMO Ryan Grant is generally underrated and Brandon Jackson is generally overrated, and a big reason is the perception that Jackson is much better as a receiver and thus as a third down back.
This about sums it up.Ryan Grant is a good, solid running back. He has solid speed, good power, average receiving skills... he just isn't "special". He isn't good enough to make a lot on his own, but he is more than capable behind a good O-line. Brandon Jackson was somewhat touted when he was drafted by Green Bay, but he doesn't bring a lot to the table. Looks like a good receiver and has pretty good open field elusiveness, but average top speed and mediocre power, and he dances a bit much. Deshawn Wynn is a bit of a plodder. He does nothing better than average. He just looks like an average RB to me, if that.Ryan Grant should have a productive season, but he is a replaceable talent, so who knows what will happen in 2010 and beyond. One thing I am confident in is that his replacement is not on the roster right now.
 
I think because of Ryan Grant's general acceptance as an average back that he is a nice value play in 09. He just doesn't have any of that wow factor that demands an early draft pick.

The Packers passed on 59% of their plays last season and if their defense improves even a little that percentage might go down a little. There are many that expect that Brandon Jackson should get some opportunities, but he could do that even as Ryan Grant keeps his. The fact is that Ryan Grant had 312 rushes in 08, a whopping 83.4% of his teams RB runs.

He also had six games with over 20 rushes and no games with less than 12, so he had ample chances to caary the ball last year and should again in 09. He got off to a skow start, in the first half of the year, his 157 rushes yielded 550 yards for a 3.5 ypc average. However, in the last half, he had 155 carries (see the consistency while GB went 2-6 over the last eight games) for 653 yards and a 4.2 ypc. Ditto, the caomparisons on TDs, one in the first half and 4 in the second half. And also with the receptions, 4 for 8 yards in the first half and then 14 for 108 in the second. I think that folks kind of quit paying attention to the Packers as their defense crumbled and their record went south.

I think that he has a likely solid campaign in 09 and could slip even lower than FBG's current ADP of RB17 and 32 overall. I think that he needs to slip a little to provide good value though.

Ryan Grant 320 carries 1344 yards 4.2 ypc 28 catches 168 yards 6.0 ypc and 8 TDs

 
Even though Brandon Jackson is the 3rd down back it doesn't affect Grant that much since Green Bay is one of the better teams at converting 3rd downs.

Thought this thread was missing this bit of info.

 
Deshawn Wynn - will be this year's version of 2007's Ryan Grant/Ernest Graham, 2008's Mewelde Moore.a 3rd string RB that will be fantasy startable at some point in 2009. Grant just isnt good. PERIOD.
And Wynn was so good he has seen how many starts in the last 3 years.He is not even assured of having a job with the Packers this year.
 
Career Jackson, 46-6.8

Career Grant, 44-5.4

Neither of them lighting the house on fire there, but it remains a mystery why B Jax didn't see more time last year since he much the better runner in 2008. It's possible the organization promised Grant he'd have every chance to make his performance-based bonuses when he agreed to sign for a lowish base salary.
To the detriment of the team? I'm not trying to be an ###, but no, that's not possible. They aren't going to keep a guy they believe is a better option on the bench so that they can keep a player they believe is less effective (and thus hurting their potential) on the field...so he can earn even more of their money. That would mean they were knowingly and intentionally paying Grant more to do less. What next? They let aging veterans ride the pine for two or three years so they can finish out their backloaded contracts? Think about it. That's not going to happen in the NFL.Grant got more carries last year because the staff felt he was the best option running the ball...even when his lack of explosiveness and ailing hammy presented Jackson with ample opportunity to eat into Grant's carries. That's the only explanation that makes any sense. And it doesn't speak highly of their thoughts on Jackson as a bellcow.

It could be that they felt Jackson was a better option in the passing game and thus got those opportunitites. But it's also very possible that they were trying to limit Grant's workload some last season to nurse him along both conditioning wise and hamstring wise. If they thought he was significantly better than Jackson at rushing, but that Jackson wasn't a liability or drop-off in the passing game, it would make sense that they tended to pigeon hole the two of them in those roles to maximize the on field production while spelling Grant and rehabbing his hammy.

So it's possible Jackson continues in his 2008 role. It's also possible that a healthy Grant doesn't need to be nursed along and gets more targets this season. But unless he stumbles worse than last year or Jackson has made some significant improvment in the offseason (which we haven't heard about), I don't see any significant loss of carries to Jackson in 2009.

 
Career Jackson, 46-6.8

Career Grant, 44-5.4

Neither of them lighting the house on fire there, but it remains a mystery why B Jax didn't see more time last year since he much the better runner in 2008. It's possible the organization promised Grant he'd have every chance to make his performance-based bonuses when he agreed to sign for a lowish base salary.
To the detriment of the team? I'm not trying to be an ###, but no, that's not possible. They aren't going to keep a guy they believe is a better option on the bench so that they can keep a player they believe is less effective (and thus hurting their potential) on the field...so he can earn even more of their money. That would mean they were knowingly and intentionally paying Grant more to do less. What next? They let aging veterans ride the pine for two or three years so they can finish out their backloaded contracts? Think about it. That's not going to happen in the NFL.Grant got more carries last year because the staff felt he was the best option running the ball...even when his lack of explosiveness and ailing hammy presented Jackson with ample opportunity to eat into Grant's carries. That's the only explanation that makes any sense. And it doesn't speak highly of their thoughts on Jackson as a bellcow.

It could be that they felt Jackson was a better option in the passing game and thus got those opportunitites. But it's also very possible that they were trying to limit Grant's workload some last season to nurse him along both conditioning wise and hamstring wise. If they thought he was significantly better than Jackson at rushing, but that Jackson wasn't a liability or drop-off in the passing game, it would make sense that they tended to pigeon hole the two of them in those roles to maximize the on field production while spelling Grant and rehabbing his hammy.

So it's possible Jackson continues in his 2008 role. It's also possible that a healthy Grant doesn't need to be nursed along and gets more targets this season. But unless he stumbles worse than last year or Jackson has made some significant improvment in the offseason (which we haven't heard about), I don't see any significant loss of carries to Jackson in 2009.
:lmao:
 
Career Jackson, 46-6.8

Career Grant, 44-5.4

Neither of them lighting the house on fire there, but it remains a mystery why B Jax didn't see more time last year since he much the better runner in 2008. It's possible the organization promised Grant he'd have every chance to make his performance-based bonuses when he agreed to sign for a lowish base salary.
To the detriment of the team? I'm not trying to be an ###, but no, that's not possible. They aren't going to keep a guy they believe is a better option on the bench so that they can keep a player they believe is less effective (and thus hurting their potential) on the field...so he can earn even more of their money. That would mean they were knowingly and intentionally paying Grant more to do less. What next? They let aging veterans ride the pine for two or three years so they can finish out their backloaded contracts? Think about it. That's not going to happen in the NFL.Grant got more carries last year because the staff felt he was the best option running the ball...even when his lack of explosiveness and ailing hammy presented Jackson with ample opportunity to eat into Grant's carries. That's the only explanation that makes any sense. And it doesn't speak highly of their thoughts on Jackson as a bellcow.

It could be that they felt Jackson was a better option in the passing game and thus got those opportunitites. But it's also very possible that they were trying to limit Grant's workload some last season to nurse him along both conditioning wise and hamstring wise. If they thought he was significantly better than Jackson at rushing, but that Jackson wasn't a liability or drop-off in the passing game, it would make sense that they tended to pigeon hole the two of them in those roles to maximize the on field production while spelling Grant and rehabbing his hammy.

So it's possible Jackson continues in his 2008 role. It's also possible that a healthy Grant doesn't need to be nursed along and gets more targets this season. But unless he stumbles worse than last year or Jackson has made some significant improvment in the offseason (which we haven't heard about), I don't see any significant loss of carries to Jackson in 2009.
:goodposting:
Agreed, that is a great post.
 
Career Jackson, 46-6.8

Career Grant, 44-5.4

Neither of them lighting the house on fire there, but it remains a mystery why B Jax didn't see more time last year since he much the better runner in 2008. It's possible the organization promised Grant he'd have every chance to make his performance-based bonuses when he agreed to sign for a lowish base salary.
To the detriment of the team? I'm not trying to be an ###, but no, that's not possible. They aren't going to keep a guy they believe is a better option on the bench so that they can keep a player they believe is less effective (and thus hurting their potential) on the field...so he can earn even more of their money. That would mean they were knowingly and intentionally paying Grant more to do less. What next? They let aging veterans ride the pine for two or three years so they can finish out their backloaded contracts? Think about it. That's not going to happen in the NFL.Grant got more carries last year because the staff felt he was the best option running the ball...even when his lack of explosiveness and ailing hammy presented Jackson with ample opportunity to eat into Grant's carries. That's the only explanation that makes any sense. And it doesn't speak highly of their thoughts on Jackson as a bellcow.

It could be that they felt Jackson was a better option in the passing game and thus got those opportunitites. But it's also very possible that they were trying to limit Grant's workload some last season to nurse him along both conditioning wise and hamstring wise. If they thought he was significantly better than Jackson at rushing, but that Jackson wasn't a liability or drop-off in the passing game, it would make sense that they tended to pigeon hole the two of them in those roles to maximize the on field production while spelling Grant and rehabbing his hammy.

So it's possible Jackson continues in his 2008 role. It's also possible that a healthy Grant doesn't need to be nursed along and gets more targets this season. But unless he stumbles worse than last year or Jackson has made some significant improvment in the offseason (which we haven't heard about), I don't see any significant loss of carries to Jackson in 2009.
:lmao:
Agreed, that is a great post.
Aw shucks. With enough posts, this old dog is bound to find a bone every once in awhile. :lmao: Thanks. :bow:

 
Deshawn Wynn - will be this year's version of 2007's Ryan Grant/Ernest Graham, 2008's Mewelde Moore.a 3rd string RB that will be fantasy startable at some point in 2009. Grant just isnt good. PERIOD.
And Wynn was so good he has seen how many starts in the last 3 years.He is not even assured of having a job with the Packers this year.
I cant believe some think that Wynn ( A fat , lazy out of shape pedestrian RB ) will end up on top of the Packers RB depth chart .He had to be kidding of fishing .If Grant cant get the job done , Jackson will take over and if he cant get it done Lumpkin will take over ( For Wynn to make the team it would take a miracle ).
 
Also not terribly relevant to Grant's performance, but I think Tyrell Sutton has a good chance of making the team (following fellow NW alum Noah Herron).

 
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Deshawn Wynn - will be this year's version of 2007's Ryan Grant/Ernest Graham, 2008's Mewelde Moore.a 3rd string RB that will be fantasy startable at some point in 2009. Grant just isnt good. PERIOD.
And Wynn was so good he has seen how many starts in the last 3 years.He is not even assured of having a job with the Packers this year.
I cant believe some think that Wynn ( A fat , lazy out of shape pedestrian RB ) will end up on top of the Packers RB depth chart .He had to be kidding of fishing .If Grant cant get the job done , Jackson will take over and if he cant get it done Lumpkin will take over ( For Wynn to make the team it would take a miracle ).
I don't think it would take a miracle for him to make it...the coaches seem to really like him.Though, if Lumpkin is healed...the way he ran last year and works...I could see him making it.Wynn could make it if they keep 4...or they could like the different type of back they have in Sutton (the undrafted FA).Id expect they keep 3 and possibly have Sutton on the practice squad with Wynn gone.
 
:goodposting:

Watch the two games late in the season where they actually gave the ball to Jackson - the Bears and Panthers games.

Jackson looked MUCH better than Grant did at any point in the season - and the #s bear it out.

 
Deshawn Wynn - will be this year's version of 2007's Ryan Grant/Ernest Graham, 2008's Mewelde Moore.a 3rd string RB that will be fantasy startable at some point in 2009. Grant just isnt good. PERIOD.
And Wynn was so good he has seen how many starts in the last 3 years.He is not even assured of having a job with the Packers this year.
Wynn was productive and impressive when he played. If he stays healthy, he could have a shot. Jackson and Grant are simply not that good.
 
:goodposting:Watch the two games late in the season where they actually gave the ball to Jackson - the Bears and Panthers games.Jackson looked MUCH better than Grant did at any point in the season - and the #s bear it out.
Yeah, and the Green Bay coaches were so impressed with him after that Bears game he got 2 carries in the next game... and they were so impressed with him after that Panthers game that they gave him 1 carry over the next 2 games... then he sprained his wrist and missed the last two games.Quite impressive...
 
Deshawn Wynn - will be this year's version of 2007's Ryan Grant/Ernest Graham, 2008's Mewelde Moore.a 3rd string RB that will be fantasy startable at some point in 2009. Grant just isnt good. PERIOD.
And Wynn was so good he has seen how many starts in the last 3 years.He is not even assured of having a job with the Packers this year.
Wynn was productive and impressive when he played. If he stays healthy, he could have a shot. Jackson and Grant are simply not that good.
Wynn barely played...outside of one big run against Detroit...he basically did nothing.
 
:thumbup:Watch the two games late in the season where they actually gave the ball to Jackson - the Bears and Panthers games.Jackson looked MUCH better than Grant did at any point in the season - and the #s bear it out.
Yeah, and the Green Bay coaches were so impressed with him after that Bears game he got 2 carries in the next game... and they were so impressed with him after that Panthers game that they gave him 1 carry over the next 2 games... then he sprained his wrist and missed the last two games.Quite impressive...
Thats the biggest thing. People who don't like Grant will act as if Jackson is lighting it up.Look, I hope Jackson does well. But so far, there is something about him the coaches simply don't trust on a game by game basis or in practice or whatever. The people who see the guys every day continue to give Grant the ball more often.Rather than us, on a message board who only see some carries in a game and don't know all what goes into the game plan.For now, it appears Grant is the one who will get around 60% of the total carries in GB.
 
:thumbup:Watch the two games late in the season where they actually gave the ball to Jackson - the Bears and Panthers games.Jackson looked MUCH better than Grant did at any point in the season - and the #s bear it out.
Watch all of the games by Grant in the 2007 season where he started before he was hurt in 2008.Grant looked MUCH better than Jackson did at any point in his career - and the #s bear it out.
 

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