Player Spotlight: Santana Moss (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Santana Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[a_troll00]

Santana Moss had a down year last year, but that was mainly due to turmoil at the QB position. An aging Brunell wasn't producing, and the youngster Campbell was being broken in. Still, S. Moss has great speed and ability and last year he continued to show how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands.

Making a projection for him is difficult. It mostly depends on how Campbell develops and if he can develop a connection with Moss. If Campbell is smart, he will make huge efforts to get the ball into Moss' hands. Also, Moss did miss two games last year. Can he play a full season this year?

I think this year will be a comeback for Moss, but not as big as his 2005 season.

I'll go with 1150 yds and 8 TDs.

I think S. Moss is a keeper in a dynasty league, because he will make a rebound. Now might even be a good time to acquire him since his value should be fairly low (like the stock market, buy low sell high). In a redraft league, drafting him around rounds 6-8 will be gold.

 

[jesseasi]

I have been keeping an eye on Moss for some time now. I consider him to be a poor man's Steve Smith.

Great speed, incredible after the catch, and able to make the tough catches.

But what Moss lacks is a stable offense and QB at the helm. I think this year Campbell settles into the starting job and with a healthy Portis/Betts carrying the load - hopefully we can see some more consistant numbers from Moss.

Like the poster before - I think he is a great candidate for a rebound season but not like the 2005 season.

I will go with 1100 and 8TD but the ceiling could be much higher. I would not be shocked if he put up 1250 and 10TD.

I just traded for S. Moss in my keeper league. Giving up C. Chambers and the 22nd pick in our upcoming rookie draft.

 

[cscmtp]

I have been calling Santana Moss the closest thing to Steve Smith for a few years now. He's extremely quick, tough, great hands, and is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. The issue with him has been poor QB play (even when he was with the Jets) I believe Campbell will be a significantly better QB this year, which should give Santana a chance to repeat his 2005 numbers. He's been going in the 5-8th rounds in a lot of leagues, and should EASILY outperform his ADP.

85 catches, 1250 yards, 9-12 TDs

***I have him in 6 or 7 dynasty leagues, but still.

 

[shadyridr]

Im never high on Moss. He always seems to be hurt (usually his hamstrings), he seems to be strictly a deep threat, and he seems to be very inconsistent. He always seems to have that 1 huge 150 yd, 3 td game and then disappear for 3 weeks. I would only want this guy as a WR3 and I know he will get drafted earlier than that so I wont expect to have him.

60 rec, 900 yds, 6 tds, 100 rush yds, 1 td

 

[Kiddnets]

I see a big rebound year for Santana - nicked up and QB play hurt him last year. Campbell has some experience and the running game should keep defenses honest

I see a return to solid numbers if not top 12.

1,100 yds 9 TDs

100 yds rush 1 TD rush

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Underrated. Campbell may be inexperienced, but Brunell just plain sucked and Moss did very well catching those ducks. Campbell can't be that much worse. Thing is, Moss isn't the kind of receiver that depends on the team getting in to the red zone for his points. He makes his own points with big plays so the overall offensive effectiveness issue is somewhat mitigated.

Say 1100 and 10.

 

[dgreen]

Moss with Brunell in 2006: 8 games, 3.9 rec/gm, 56.5 yds/gm, 0.4 td/gm

Moss with Campbell in 2006: 6 games, 4.0 rec/gm, 56.3 yds/gm, 0.5 td/gm

Not much difference. That's actually a good sign, IMO. Campbell stepped in and Moss showed no ill-effect and arguably even a slight upswing since he was playing hurt a couple weeks with Campbell. It's also interesting to note that Moss was able to post those numbers with Campbell despite a somewhat exaggerated emphasis on the running game down the stretch last season. If Campbell can take a step or two in the right direction, Gibbs and Saunders will be more comfortable throwing the ball a little more than they let him last year. That, along with increased chemistry between the two and we should see Moss' numbers improve.

Give Moss a 20% increase on receptions per game from last year's numbers with Campbell, a slight increase in yds/rec, and hold his tds/gm steady and you get:

77-1155-8

Add another 50 yds rushing for about 1200 yards of offense.

I agree with others, though, that he has potential for a big year.

 

[lions327]

Santana Moss is going into his 7th season. 2003 was his 3rd season, and the first in which he got serious playing time. He has done the following:

2003: 74 catches for 1105 yards and 10 TD's.

2004: 45 for 838, 5 TD's

2005: 84, 1483, 9 TD's.

2006: 55, 790, 6 TD's (missed 2 games)

He is a solid WR, but other than 2005, he has not put up the really big numbers I have seen tossed around. Campbell is sure to be somewhat inconsistent and that hurts Moss more than anyone. He will throw more safe passes to Portis and Cooley when he is pressured. Last season, he would have been in the 900's or so if not for missing 2 games. I see a slight improvement as Campbell improves. I see a solid season, about in the middle of his previous 4 seasons as a full time starter. But I don't see him doing much better than this.

68 catches, 1020 yards, 6 TD's.

5 rushes, 68 yards, 0 TD's

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He'll do slightly better than last year.......but he's not regaining he form he had two years ago where he finished at WR no.3 in fantasy rankings.

65 receptions for 850 yards 7 tds

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Are some of these lower projections based on an assumption of more missed games? Otherwise, they seem to indicate that Moss pts/game will actually be worse this year than last year. What are the explanations for that?

Possibilities I can think of:

Expected injuries/missed games. Given his woes so far in pre-season, I could accept that (but don't necessarily agree).

Situation somehow get worse. Really can't see how this would be possible. He was injured, and had injured/bad/rookie QBs throwing to him and the team ran a huge percentage of the time.

His talent level has dropped somehow. As he's in his prime this does not seem likely unless again you believe that injuries have permanently hindered him (it does happen).

He played ABOVE his talent tlevel last year. Given the previous year was vastly superior, this does not seem likely.

So where is the dropoff coming from? Which of these is it, or is there something I am missing?

 

[lions327]

Are some of these lower projections based on an assumption of more missed games? Otherwise, they seem to indicate that Moss pts/game will actually be worse this year than last year. What are the explanations for that?Possibilities I can think of:Expected injuries/missed games. Given his woes so far in pre-season, I could accept that (but don't necessarily agree).Situation somehow get worse. Really can't see how this would be possible. He was injured, and had injured/bad/rookie QBs throwing to him and the team ran a huge percentage of the time.His talent level has dropped somehow. As he's in his prime this does not seem likely unless again you believe that injuries have permanently hindered him (it does happen).He played ABOVE his talent tlevel last year. Given the previous year was vastly superior, this does not seem likely.So where is the dropoff coming from? Which of these is it, or is there something I am missing?

Why is it called a dropoff? He has only had 1 great year, and 2 of the 4 years he was a regular start he failed to hit 1000 yards. In his 1400 yard, 9 TD season, he had 7 of those TD's in 3 games, and only 2 in the other 13. It seems to me 1000 is about where he belongs, with 6-7 TD's or so. I don't see him getting the big TD numbers that have been posted.

 

[cscmtp]

He'll do FAR better than 60 catches and 6 TDs. Do you think Randle El and Lloyd will suddenly get tons of catches? If not, you must think the Skins will be running the ball on 80% of their offensive plays? Very few teams #1 WRs, much less ones that have been to a pro bowl, only get 60 something catches...

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Are some of these lower projections based on an assumption of more missed games? Otherwise, they seem to indicate that Moss pts/game will actually be worse this year than last year. What are the explanations for that?Possibilities I can think of:Expected injuries/missed games. Given his woes so far in pre-season, I could accept that (but don't necessarily agree).Situation somehow get worse. Really can't see how this would be possible. He was injured, and had injured/bad/rookie QBs throwing to him and the team ran a huge percentage of the time.His talent level has dropped somehow. As he's in his prime this does not seem likely unless again you believe that injuries have permanently hindered him (it does happen).He played ABOVE his talent tlevel last year. Given the previous year was vastly superior, this does not seem likely.So where is the dropoff coming from? Which of these is it, or is there something I am missing?

Why is it called a dropoff? He has only had 1 great year, and 2 of the 4 years he was a regular start he failed to hit 1000 yards. In his 1400 yard, 9 TD season, he had 7 of those TD's in 3 games, and only 2 in the other 13. It seems to me 1000 is about where he belongs, with 6-7 TD's or so. I don't see him getting the big TD numbers that have been posted.

In your case, it is TDs. I know TDs are pretty hard to predict in general, but he had 6TDs last year in 14 games and in a very rough situation. So a 6TD prediction in 16 games is a SLIGHT downgrade.Really, I was more curious about some of the low yardage predictions. 850 is a bit of a downgrade as well for a guy who had 790 in 14 games last year.

 

[Block]

I'd say for where he is drafted he is a high reward player without much risk. His upside is 80-90 catches, 1300-1400 yards and close to 10 TDs. His floor is about what he did last year, which prorated over 16 games would be around 65-70 catches for 900 yards and 7 TDs. In some cases he is being drafted after 20 receivers are off the board in the vicinity of guys like Deion Branch and Reggie Brown.

He is a great value pick.

Overall I'll split the floor and ceiling and predict 77 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs.

 

[Big_O]

I'd say for where he is drafted he is a high reward player without much risk. His upside is 80-90 catches, 1300-1400 yards and close to 10 TDs. His floor is about what he did last year, which prorated over 16 games would be around 65-70 catches for 900 yards and 7 TDs. In some cases he is being drafted after 20 receivers are off the board in the vicinity of guys like Deion Branch and Reggie Brown.He is a great value pick.Overall I'll split the floor and ceiling and predict 77 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs.

Had Moss put up those numbers in 2006, he would have been in the top 10 in both rec. yds and rec. TD'sIf he were to play all 16 games in 2007, I think those #'s might be reasonable. If not, I think 1000 yds and 6 TD's sounds right.If he is still around in the 4-5 round of my draft, I will definitely pick him up, as I agree he defines a value pick. However, he has had a history of one BIG Sunday, followed by a couple of stealth ones. Those who tinker with their starting lineups on a weekly basis be advised...

 

[lions327]

He'll do FAR better than 60 catches and 6 TDs. Do you think Randle El and Lloyd will suddenly get tons of catches? If not, you must think the Skins will be running the ball on 80% of their offensive plays? Very few teams #1 WRs, much less ones that have been to a pro bowl, only get 60 something catches...

What is different this year with the WR's? Looks like the same as last year. He was the #1 last year. He had 55 catches in 14 games last year, which projects to about 65 over 16 games.

 

[Block]

He'll do FAR better than 60 catches and 6 TDs. Do you think Randle El and Lloyd will suddenly get tons of catches? If not, you must think the Skins will be running the ball on 80% of their offensive plays? Very few teams #1 WRs, much less ones that have been to a pro bowl, only get 60 something catches...

What is different this year with the WR's? Looks like the same as last year. He was the #1 last year. He had 55 catches in 14 games last year, which projects to about 65 over 16 games.

That was with a QB change midseason, first year of the Saunders offense, and he was banged up in alot of the games he played in.This year looks quite a bit better.

 

[redman]

Moss is a frustrating WR to have for a lot of people. He's often feast or famine, though his famine periods don't tend to be awful, especially in PPR leagues (He tends to consistently be good for 4/60 each game. In his handful of "feasts" each year, however, he'll get between 150 and 200 yards with multiple TD's. If you can afford to keep him in your lineup and you have any sort of a decent team, he can be the difference in those games where he goes off.

I think Saunders' offense and Campbell will hit their stride this year. That said, I don't think we're going to see double digit TD's from Moss this year. Cooley is too big of an asset in that passing game, and the running game with Portis and Betts figures to get featured.

My best guess is 70/1225/8, which makes him a solid fantasy play but not one of the studs, around WR7 in non-PPR last year, and WR12 in PPR.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Betts is coming off a 1000 yard season.

Clinton Portis is one of the most talented backs in the league.

Anyone else think they're going to run the crap out of the ball this year?

They finished 4th in rushing last year, even with Portis only playing in half the games.

They finished 21st in passing, but it's fair to say Brunell sucked and Campbell was inexperienced.

With both backs healthy, they're going to run it a ton, plain and simple. The passing game could actually improve, Campbell has reportedly worked very hard to improve over the offseasson. Still, I think his passing opportunities are limited this year. Meaning Moss's will be even more limited.

65 receptions

930 yards

7 tds

 

[cscmtp]

I believe because the RB position is so strong, with Portis and Betts forcing teams to play the run, that Santana WILL have a big year.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I believe because the RB position is so strong, with Portis and Betts forcing teams to play the run, that Santana WILL have a big year.

lol touché

 

[Block]

Betts is coming off a 1000 yard season.Clinton Portis is one of the most talented backs in the league.Anyone else think they're going to run the crap out of the ball this year?They finished 4th in rushing last year, even with Portis only playing in half the games. They finished 21st in passing, but it's fair to say Brunell sucked and Campbell was inexperienced.With both backs healthy, they're going to run it a ton, plain and simple. The passing game could actually improve, Campbell has reportedly worked very hard to improve over the offseasson. Still, I think his passing opportunities are limited this year. Meaning Moss's will be even more limited.65 receptions930 yards7 tds

I think even in an offense that will run a ton, there will be plenty of opportunities for Moss. Their other wideouts don't do much.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Betts is coming off a 1000 yard season.Clinton Portis is one of the most talented backs in the league.Anyone else think they're going to run the crap out of the ball this year?They finished 4th in rushing last year, even with Portis only playing in half the games. They finished 21st in passing, but it's fair to say Brunell sucked and Campbell was inexperienced.With both backs healthy, they're going to run it a ton, plain and simple. The passing game could actually improve, Campbell has reportedly worked very hard to improve over the offseasson. Still, I think his passing opportunities are limited this year. Meaning Moss's will be even more limited.65 receptions930 yards7 tds

I think even in an offense that will run a ton, there will be plenty of opportunities for Moss. Their other wideouts don't do much.

They didn't do a ton last year either.

 

[Block]

Betts is coming off a 1000 yard season.Clinton Portis is one of the most talented backs in the league.Anyone else think they're going to run the crap out of the ball this year?They finished 4th in rushing last year, even with Portis only playing in half the games. They finished 21st in passing, but it's fair to say Brunell sucked and Campbell was inexperienced.With both backs healthy, they're going to run it a ton, plain and simple. The passing game could actually improve, Campbell has reportedly worked very hard to improve over the offseasson. Still, I think his passing opportunities are limited this year. Meaning Moss's will be even more limited.65 receptions930 yards7 tds

I think even in an offense that will run a ton, there will be plenty of opportunities for Moss. Their other wideouts don't do much.

They didn't do a ton last year either.

They didn't do a ton in 2005 either. He was #3 overall.

 

[mlball77]

With another year of Saunders running the offense and Campbell gaining confidence, I think Moss can bounce back a bit in 07. I'm not expecting huge numbers from him, but very solid for a fantasy WR2.

Recs: 70

Yds: 1050

TDs: 7

 

[toxicbees]

Great offensive line, great running game, and an improved Campbell all point to Moss having a great year.

85 rec 1250 yards 10 tds

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

80 rec. 1100 yds. 8 tds.

Campbell likes Cooley, and when defenses start keying on him partway through the season Moss should start breaking out more. I expect a much bigger second half than first.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Betts is coming off a 1000 yard season.Clinton Portis is one of the most talented backs in the league.Anyone else think they're going to run the crap out of the ball this year?They finished 4th in rushing last year, even with Portis only playing in half the games. They finished 21st in passing, but it's fair to say Brunell sucked and Campbell was inexperienced.With both backs healthy, they're going to run it a ton, plain and simple. The passing game could actually improve, Campbell has reportedly worked very hard to improve over the offseasson. Still, I think his passing opportunities are limited this year. Meaning Moss's will be even more limited.65 receptions930 yards7 tds

I think even in an offense that will run a ton, there will be plenty of opportunities for Moss. Their other wideouts don't do much.

They didn't do a ton last year either.

They didn't do a ton in 2005 either. He was #3 overall.

Which means the the other wrs don't really have an effect on his stats? So the original point is mute?

 

[redman]

Betts is coming off a 1000 yard season.Clinton Portis is one of the most talented backs in the league.Anyone else think they're going to run the crap out of the ball this year?They finished 4th in rushing last year, even with Portis only playing in half the games. They finished 21st in passing, but it's fair to say Brunell sucked and Campbell was inexperienced.With both backs healthy, they're going to run it a ton, plain and simple. The passing game could actually improve, Campbell has reportedly worked very hard to improve over the offseasson. Still, I think his passing opportunities are limited this year. Meaning Moss's will be even more limited.65 receptions930 yards7 tds

I think even in an offense that will run a ton, there will be plenty of opportunities for Moss. Their other wideouts don't do much.

They didn't do a ton last year either.

They didn't do a ton in 2005 either. He was #3 overall.

Which means the the other wrs don't really have an effect on his stats? So the original point is mute?

I don't know about any "mute" points, but there's no other go-to WR on that roster. In 2005 only Steve Smith among WR's had a greater % of his team's passing offense go through him. Moss is a franchise caliber WR, but the biggest question for me is his health. If he remains healthy throughout the season, I'd expect that his numbers are closer to 2005 than to 2006.

 

[rzrback77]

Santana Moss is an exciting explosive WR. He is also far and away the best big play receiver that the Redskins have. Cooley is very effective in his role. The Redskin offensive line should be improved over last season. Undoubtedly, the Redskins have a solid running game with Portis (if healthy) and Betts. The only thing missing for Moss is somebody to get him the ball.

Jason Campbell can be that guy in 07. He improved as he went along in 06 and he looked for Moss. The number of targets did not go up for Moss with Campbell, but his percentage of WR targets did. I think in 07, Campbell will lean heavily on Moss, Cooley, and the RBs in the passing game and Moss will see his most targets in several years. Hopefully, the passes will be more accurate than previously.

S Moss 130 targets 77 receptions 1155 yards, add 70 yds rushing and 9 total TDs

 

[HoTnickZ]

Has there been any predictive pattern to Santana's big games and disappearing acts? This would be helpful...