Player Spotlight: Santana Moss (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Santana Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I like Santana Moss to bounce back this season. The WCO will help improve Moss and his numbers, hopefully can run slants and break some open like Steve Smith does in Carolina. Moss will be value on draft day.

72 rec, 1050 yds, 7 TD

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Santana Moss had a good 2nd half last season with over 500 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Hopefully he can build upon that and return to form and have a good season. And there's always the chance that he could have a monster season like he's had a couple of times in his career.

 

[Ripleys]

He's dropping too. I took him at 8.5 in a startup PPR league last night, and most people said I took him "too early" So there is value to be had this year for sure.

 

[T Bell]

Santana Moss is a tale of two WR's. When he's healthy and the team is at all capable of throwing deep, the guy's a force and puts up numbers in the WR10-14 range. When he's injured and/or the offense is struggling his numbers decline and become very sporadic. He's also the kind of guy, even in the best of years, to put up huge numbers in a few games while having other games where he's averaging an output below what his ADP would justify. He can be maddening that way, but it's because he's an explosive player. (He can also scare you with a 3/30 day until he catches a 60-yard TD for a score late in a game - he's a roller coaster ride.)

In short, your draft strategy with him should be to have him not as your WR1 because of his large game-to-game variations in performance, but you'd love to get him as a WR2 or WR3 to capture those big games he puts up - and they're hard to guess so you have to keep plugging him in there.

What should you look for injury-wise? His achilles heel is not his Achilles Heel, but rather his hamstrings and occasionally his groin. In short, he pulls the muscles that sprinters tend to pull. Look in the injury reports for those types of injuries to see how healthy he is. When they bother him he loses his explosiveness and thus his value as a WR because he has no size to fall back on.

Assuming full health as I always do, I'd project:

75/1240/9

I think his ADP will be lower than his value this year.

 

[shadyridr]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...

56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

 

[dgreen]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

Are you predicting an injury? His 16-game average since joining the Redskins is 73-1120-6.5.

 

[T Bell]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

Are you predicting an injury? His 16-game average since joining the Redskins is 73-1120-6.5.

And I would add that three of those four seasons were with an injured Mark Brunell, a first-time starter in Campbell, and/or ultraconservative play-calling by Gibbs. I think Zorn is going to open up this offense, and Moss represents value this year, again assuming he's healthy.

 

[shadyridr]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

Are you predicting an injury? His 16-game average since joining the Redskins is 73-1120-6.5.

The last 2 years he's played in 14 games... My projections are better than his last 2 years. Take it any way you want

 

[dgreen]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

Are you predicting an injury? His 16-game average since joining the Redskins is 73-1120-6.5.

The last 2 years he's played in 14 games... My projections are better than his last 2 years. Take it any way you want

There's more to consider here, IMO, than just his stats from the last two years.

 

[dgreen]

I think a big part of Moss' production will be based on Campbell's ability to "get it" and consistency at that position. With Campbell, Moss has played 16.5 games. In those games, Moss has posted a disappointing 69-869-4. Moss played hurt in some of those games, which is always a concern for him. Also, as Tatum Bell pointed out, Moss has played a significant portion of his three years in Washington with extremely inconsistent QB play. The best QB play he has experienced has been in early 2005 with Mark Brunell and late 2007 with Todd Collins. After the late-game heroics over Dallas in 2005, the Washington passing game was running on all cylinders for 4 more weeks. For a five-week stretch, Moss was amazing, catching 34 balls for 647 yards and five TDs. His worst game in that stretch was 6-87-0. But, after those games, they had a horrible game at Giants Stadium and the passing game was inconsistent (due to various things pointed out by Tatum Bell) until Todd Collins stepped in late in 2007. In Collins' three starts, Moss was 15-261-2. So, Moss' production is going to really hinge on Campbell's ability to pick up the offense and provide some consistency.

Moss has accounted for 23% of Campbell's completions, 26% of his yards, and 27% of his TDs. If I apply those percentages to my Campbell projections, I get 72-890-5 for Moss. While I'm ok with the receptions and tds, I really don't like that ypc. Moss is better than that and will be put in a better position to accomplish better numbers in 2008.

Moss' career ypc is 15.7 and it's 15.4 in Washington. However, it is only about 12.5 with Campbell. Moss will likely be switching sides of the field (from Z to X), back to where he played in 2005 (his best year). He's only played Z with Campbell. During the last 2 seasons, the X has been played by Lloyd (15.9 ypc in 2006) and ARE (14.3 ypc in 2007). This move should allow Moss more space (away from the TE) to make plays and pick up extra yards. The WCO should emphasize getting the ball in Moss' hands where he can do some damage after the catch. The last couple years, Moss had to rely on the ball getting to him further down field. I don't think he'll return to the 17.7 ypc he posted in 2005, but I could see him back up around 15 ypc.

Moss, along with Cooley, should still be Campbell's top target. While they drafted three big receivers, they shouldn't cut too much into Moss' production. I see them affecting ARE and red zone TDs more than anything related to Moss. Assuming 16 games, I'll predict 72-1080-6.

 

[brock]

moss had 4 games of over 10 fantasy points last year if you include the skin's playoff game. 3 of those 4 games came late in 2007 with collins under center during weeks 16-18. in the 20 games that campbell has started during the past 2 seasons moss has only 3 games of 10 or more fantasy points. campbell will be back under center for 2008. is he the right guy to get the best performances out of moss?

 

[rzrback77]

Santana Moss is a WR that should provide added value to those owners that draft him in 08. He finished as high as WR3 in FBG scoring only three years ago, but has still seen over 100 targets in each of the previous three seasons. Since he is currently going at an ADP of 83 and WR 31, he is a guy that should outproduce his draft position.

He totaled 84 catches in 05 for 1483 yards and 9 TDs. Since then, his reception percentage has decreased from 62 to a two year average of 54, his ypc has dropped from 17.7 down to 14.4 and then to 13.2. Similarly his TDs have gone from nine to six and all the way to three.

However, I see promise behind the continued development of his QB Jason Campbell and a larger role for Moss in the passing game as the two rookie WRs are worked into the offense.

Santana Moss 130 targets 75 receptions for 1,125 yards (15.0 ypc) and 7 TDs

 

[T Bell]

moss had 4 games of over 10 fantasy points last year if you include the skin's playoff game. 3 of those 4 games came late in 2007 with collins under center during weeks 16-18. in the 20 games that campbell has started during the past 2 seasons moss has only 3 games of 10 or more fantasy points. campbell will be back under center for 2008. is he the right guy to get the best performances out of moss?

Invisible in those stats was the fact that Moss was hobbled for much of the second half of 2006, and the first half-plus of 2007, which was when Campbell was starting. Moss also had a horrific game with a bunch of drops at Green Bay last year that actually lost the game (via a fumble) and that would have helped his numbers with Campbell. Now I and others noted that Campbell's deep passing accuracy that was impressive (though rarely used) in 2006 seemed to disappear in 2007, so that didn't help either, but the truth is that we really haven't seen Campbell with a fully healthy Moss.

 

[teamroc]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

And AJ has only had one. Also hilarious.

 

[Jon_Moore]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

Are you predicting an injury? His 16-game average since joining the Redskins is 73-1120-6.5.

And I would add that three of those four seasons were with an injured Mark Brunell, a first-time starter in Campbell, and/or ultraconservative play-calling by Gibbs. I think Zorn is going to open up this offense, and Moss represents value this year, again assuming he's healthy.

And go ahead and add that that average is kept by a near 1500 Yard season.

 

[Jon_Moore]

The last few seasons, Moss's YPC has dropped from 18.6 to 17.7 to 14.4 to 13.2. As fast as he is, I don't think he's lost a step. I'd blame it all on increasingly bad quarterback play. The 2nd half of last season, he had 37 Receptions for 511 Yards and 3 Tds on a 13.8 YPC--which has to hint that Campbell had started to improve. With a full season as the starter under his belt, Campbell should feel fully comfortable in the offense, and Moss should be ready to thrive again.

75 Receptions

1094 Yards

7 Tds

 

[Manster]

moss= way too inconsistent. drafted him two yrs ago. he killed me. never again. the only skins i'll draft are portis and cooley, period.

 

[cstu]

The last few seasons, Moss's YPC has dropped from 18.6 to 17.7 to 14.4 to 13.2. As fast as he is, I don't think he's lost a step. I'd blame it all on increasingly bad quarterback play. The 2nd half of last season, he had 37 Receptions for 511 Yards and 3 Tds on a 13.8 YPC--which has to hint that Campbell had started to improve. With a full season as the starter under his belt, Campbell should feel fully comfortable in the offense, and Moss should be ready to thrive again.75 Receptions1094 Yards7 Tds

I feel the same way. I traded for the guy believing that QB issues, rather than declining talent, is the reason for his disappointing play. He's a good buy low at this point since he's a clear #1 who can put up big numbers if Campbell can get him the ball.

 

[cstu]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

Are you predicting an injury? His 16-game average since joining the Redskins is 73-1120-6.5.

And I would add that three of those four seasons were with an injured Mark Brunell, a first-time starter in Campbell, and/or ultraconservative play-calling by Gibbs. I think Zorn is going to open up this offense, and Moss represents value this year, again assuming he's healthy.

And go ahead and add that that average is kept by a near 1500 Yard season.

I think you have to look a little deeper at what happened since his great 2005 season.2006 - Brunell completely lost it. In one of only a couple good games he had he threw 3 TD's - all caught by Moss. When Campbell replaced Brunell week 11 he was just as bad, however Moss had two 100 yard games in the 6 he played with Campbell at QB.2007 - Moss had groin/hamstring problems the first half the season, but he came on the 2nd half and played well the last 7 games with 37 catches and 3 TD's.If he stays healthy and Campbell continues to improve I think he's got a good shot at 80/1100/7. I think he's going to surprise people this year.

 

[joffer]

68/940/5

a tough guy to have in H2H, but nice for best-ball formats. If I can get him as a WR3 I'd be pretty happy.

 

[Jon_Moore]

This guys had 2 good years in his whole career yet people still project him with great #s and still take him fairly high. I find it hilarious. This guys a dud...56 rec, 840 yds, 5 tds

Are you predicting an injury? His 16-game average since joining the Redskins is 73-1120-6.5.

And I would add that three of those four seasons were with an injured Mark Brunell, a first-time starter in Campbell, and/or ultraconservative play-calling by Gibbs. I think Zorn is going to open up this offense, and Moss represents value this year, again assuming he's healthy.

And go ahead and add that that average is kept by a near 1500 Yard season.

I think you have to look a little deeper at what happened since his great 2005 season.2006 - Brunell completely lost it. In one of only a couple good games he had he threw 3 TD's - all caught by Moss. When Campbell replaced Brunell week 11 he was just as bad, however Moss had two 100 yard games in the 6 he played with Campbell at QB.2007 - Moss had groin/hamstring problems the first half the season, but he came on the 2nd half and played well the last 7 games with 37 catches and 3 TD's.If he stays healthy and Campbell continues to improve I think he's got a good shot at 80/1100/7. I think he's going to surprise people this year.

Obviously there's reasons, but other than his 1st season, he's been a borderline WR3 in his time in Wash. I agree with you in part though, he should be a decent play this year, borderline WR2

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Bump. Any word out of camp as to how Moss looks?

With all the hype caused by the drafting of two rookie wideouts, I think Moss is a hidden gem. Especially given how the chances of an impact being made by the rookies has diminished due to injuries.

 

[T Bell]

Bump. Any word out of camp as to how Moss looks?With all the hype caused by the drafting of two rookie wideouts, I think Moss is a hidden gem. Especially given how the chances of an impact being made by the rookies has diminished due to injuries.

Moss and ARE have a strong lead so far on getting the lion's share of the work at WR this year. Zorn has praised their veteran savvy in running routes well, but within the offense, and has noted that they're both healthy and looking explosive. I think both guys represent value as most people are going into their drafts remembering injury-riddled 2006 and 2007 seasons in a poor passing offense that was additionally hamstrung by Gibbs II's conservativeness. If Campbell continues to take to this offense like he seems to be, and Moss remains healthy (always remain alert for leg injuries, which are - not literally - his Achilles heel), I'd project Moss with numbers along the lines of: 80/1280/8.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Bump. Any word out of camp as to how Moss looks?

With all the hype caused by the drafting of two rookie wideouts, I think Moss is a hidden gem. Especially given how the chances of an impact being made by the rookies has diminished due to injuries.

Moss and ARE have a strong lead so far on getting the lion's share of the work at WR this year. Zorn has praised their veteran savvy in running routes well, but within the offense, and has noted that they're both healthy and looking explosive. I think both guys represent value as most people are going into their drafts remembering injury-riddled 2006 and 2007 seasons in a poor passing offense that was additionally hamstrung by Gibbs II's conservativeness. If Campbell continues to take to this offense like he seems to be, and Moss remains healthy (always remain alert for leg injuries, which are - not literally - his Achilles heel), I'd project Moss with numbers along the lines of: 80/1280/8.

Really?

 

[T Bell]

Bump. Any word out of camp as to how Moss looks?

With all the hype caused by the drafting of two rookie wideouts, I think Moss is a hidden gem. Especially given how the chances of an impact being made by the rookies has diminished due to injuries.

Moss and ARE have a strong lead so far on getting the lion's share of the work at WR this year. Zorn has praised their veteran savvy in running routes well, but within the offense, and has noted that they're both healthy and looking explosive. I think both guys represent value as most people are going into their drafts remembering injury-riddled 2006 and 2007 seasons in a poor passing offense that was additionally hamstrung by Gibbs II's conservativeness. If Campbell continues to take to this offense like he seems to be, and Moss remains healthy (always remain alert for leg injuries, which are - not literally - his Achilles heel), I'd project Moss with numbers along the lines of: 80/1280/8.

Really?

It's easy to dismiss me as a blind homer, but I'm paying close attention and the veterans on the team love Zorn and this offense. And this isn't like Spurrier when the love is irrational and the system was ludicrous. Campbell, contrary to my expectations, already looks more comfortable running his offense than he did with Gibbs, who practically kept him in shackles so paranoid was he that Campbell make a mistake. Campbell is blossoming with the additional trust and flexibility afforded to him. Even Peter King, never one to heap praise on the Redskins, came away from workouts impressed with Campbell. This got confirmed with a very smooth performance in the HoF game last Sunday.

The line's healthy, the WR's are healthy, they've kept the same running game terminology and everything to minimize the amount of transition. I think they're going to surprise on offense this year, and I say that also concluding that aside from injuries, the greatest obstacle they faced on offense the last two years was Gibbs' refusal to take risks. They needed a younger, more aggressive approach, and Zorn brings that.

 

[Ripleys]

couldn't have said it better myself. I love Gibbs, he's done SO MUCH for that organization, but he was no longer a fit in today's NFL game. Just WAY too conservative. Washington may be one of the surprise teams in the entire league this year.

 

[renesauz]

I hope y'all are right, as I own Moss in a dynasty league, but I think the injury-risk is very very high with him. He's too dependant on his burst, his speed, so even a small injury seems to limit his effectiveness.

If he stays healthy all season, 80/1200/7 are very realistic numbers.....but I don't like the if, because even small injuries quickly derail his production.

When 100%, he's a WR1, BUT......

Take him as your WR2, make sure you have his backup early, and be ready to use him. If he's listed in the injury report, even as probable, bench him for the backup. This is a guy who could easily end the season anywhere from WR4 to WR40 even if he plays most games!

 

[T Bell]

I hope y'all are right, as I own Moss in a dynasty league, but I think the injury-risk is very very high with him. He's too dependant on his burst, his speed, so even a small injury seems to limit his effectiveness.If he stays healthy all season, 80/1200/7 are very realistic numbers.....but I don't like the if, because even small injuries quickly derail his production.When 100%, he's a WR1, BUT......Take him as your WR2, make sure you have his backup early, and be ready to use him. If he's listed in the injury report, even as probable, bench him for the backup. This is a guy who could easily end the season anywhere from WR4 to WR40 even if he plays most games!

I don't know that his backup is worth having as I don't envision anyone else can put up those types of numbers that Moss can when healthy, but I otherwise agree with you. He's a feast or famine type of player, so you don't want to have to rely upon him every game as your strong, steady WR1, but you've got to keep him in your lineup to get those 9/180/2 games that he can come up with. Fortunately, after two years hobbled by injuries, his ADP probably allows you to draft him that way. I'd also say that if he puts up the numbers I'm thinking he can, you might consider selling high in dynasty because he's never stayed healthy and produced big two years in a row.

 

[Ripleys]

his health is ALWAYS the issue. He has the talent, speed, drive. Its the hammy issues...