Player Spotlight: Santonio Holmes (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Santonio Holmes Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He's small at 5-10 and 185...he also missed some time last season.

Highlights: 6/128/2TDs, 4/110/2TD, 5/75/TD, 4/98/TD...

The problem I have with Pitt is that they have drafted another RB in the 1st round, they seem committed to wanting to run the ball. Their OL took a major hit in the off season, and I think Big Ben is going to come off the 32 TD of a year ago to something more like 24 let's just say. Holmes is not a guy that will go over the middle, he is more of a straight line route runner which is fine but he is not likely to ever log 80 catches.

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

 

[EBF]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

 

[RoyDubb]

first year, Holmes had 85 targets in 16 games

second year, he was on pace for 103 in 16 games.

this being his 3rd year, I expect a slight uptick to around 112-116.

I say 69 rec, 1170, 7 TDs

 

[gianmarco]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

That's a serious YPC you're projecting here. Predicting him to top 18 ypc again is a bit on the high side, IMO. I'm expecting something along the lines of 75/1100/9.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

That's a serious YPC you're projecting here. Predicting him to top 18 ypc again is a bit on the high side, IMO. I'm expecting something along the lines of 75/1100/9.

HTH does he jump from 52 to 75?If it is due to injury, I got news for everyone...he's a small WR and might miss time every year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

Did you see Pittsburgh draft Mendenhall? Do you think Big Ben is going to post 32 TD again? Really? If you can imagine him sliding off those numbers than they have to come from somewhere...

 

[gianmarco]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

That's a serious YPC you're projecting here. Predicting him to top 18 ypc again is a bit on the high side, IMO. I'm expecting something along the lines of 75/1100/9.

HTH does he jump from 52 to 75?If it is due to injury, I got news for everyone...he's a small WR and might miss time every year.

Because I don't just copy and paste stats from last year. In his 2nd year, he had 52 in limited play. I don't think projecting a jump to 75 is that large of a jump. I see him him in the same mold as Burress. A 70-80 catch WR that does a lot with his catches. I'm also not as big of a fan as others are and I think those #'s are close to his ceiling. However, I don't think his floor is much lower than that either.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

That's a serious YPC you're projecting here. Predicting him to top 18 ypc again is a bit on the high side, IMO. I'm expecting something along the lines of 75/1100/9.

HTH does he jump from 52 to 75?If it is due to injury, I got news for everyone...he's a small WR and might miss time every year.

Because I don't just copy and paste stats from last year. In his 2nd year, he had 52 in limited play. I don't think projecting a jump to 75 is that large of a jump. I see him him in the same mold as Burress. A 70-80 catch WR that does a lot with his catches. I'm also not as big of a fan as others are and I think those #'s are close to his ceiling. However, I don't think his floor is much lower than that either.

OK, but here is my point. He is a smallish WR, not all of them are going to be Steve Smith...and even he breaks down and has a medical report that is getting lengthy. Snatana Moss is someitmes mentioned and he also has missed time due to injury. The point is Holmes is not the go over the middle guy...that is Hines Ward who might not be a big WR either but he is taller and he has a tendency for coming up with big plays on critical downs. Holmes stretches the field. With Pittsburgh looking like they want to run the ball more, you could make a case where Holmes will be lucky to get about 3-4 catches a game. He is likely somewhere in the 48-64 range, he has a high ypc so maybe 16-17 ypc...18+ is a lot year in and year out...he also went form 2 to 8 in his TD, so maybe he slides back to 5-6. I just think your stats are a little off, but GM you are entitled to project whatever you like. That's what makes this stuff fun. I could be totally wrong and I have a feeling I will likely be in the monority on this one.

 

[EBF]

Did you see Pittsburgh draft Mendenhall?

I think that says more about FWP than Holmes/Ward/Miller. When your best offensive player is your QB, you will throw the ball.

Do you think Big Ben is going to post 32 TD again? Really? If you can imagine him sliding off those numbers than they have to come from somewhere...

Holmes doesn't owe his value to TD catches. I only project him for about 6-8 next year, but he'll get plenty of yards. He had 824 as a rookie despite a slow start and he had 942 as a second year player despite missing significant time. There's almost no way he won't crack 900-1,000 next season unless he gets hurt. You've mentioned a couple times that he's small, but that's not really accurate. He's 5'10.5" and 188 pounds, which puts him in roughly the same range as guys like Chad Johnson, Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, and Donald Driver. He actually has a higher BMI than those guys. So while he's a little bit short, he's not small.

 

[FUBAR]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

Did you see Pittsburgh draft Mendenhall? Do you think Big Ben is going to post 32 TD again? Really? If you can imagine him sliding off those numbers than they have to come from somewhere...

He had 8 last year, I think it's more likely that Washington, Miller, Davenport and Spaeth have less TDs this year than Holmes.Holmes is coming into his own, he's good for 4 receptions per game although I think he can get 5, and while I won't expect a repeat of his league leading 18.1 per, it's possible and 16 is the floor. Assuming 16 games:Ceiling: 80/1200/8Floor: 64/950/4

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Did you see Pittsburgh draft Mendenhall?

I think that says more about FWP than Holmes/Ward/Miller. When your best offensive player is your QB, you will throw the ball.

Do you think Big Ben is going to post 32 TD again? Really? If you can imagine him sliding off those numbers than they have to come from somewhere...

Holmes doesn't owe his value to TD catches. I only project him for about 6-8 next year, but he'll get plenty of yards. He had 824 as a rookie despite a slow start and he had 942 as a second year player despite missing significant time. There's almost no way he won't crack 900-1,000 next season unless he gets hurt. You've mentioned a couple times that he's small, but that's not really accurate. He's 5'10.5" and 188 pounds, which puts him in roughly the same range as guys like Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, and Donald Driver. He actually has a higher BMI than those guys. So while he's a little bit short, he's not small.

You're throwing around some awfully big names there EBF...seriously want to rethink some of that? It's cool, you have a strong opinion on Holmes, I simply won't draft him not because I couldn't use him but he will go off the board long before I would be comfortable with grabbing him.

 

[gianmarco]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

That's a serious YPC you're projecting here. Predicting him to top 18 ypc again is a bit on the high side, IMO. I'm expecting something along the lines of 75/1100/9.

HTH does he jump from 52 to 75?If it is due to injury, I got news for everyone...he's a small WR and might miss time every year.

Because I don't just copy and paste stats from last year. In his 2nd year, he had 52 in limited play. I don't think projecting a jump to 75 is that large of a jump. I see him him in the same mold as Burress. A 70-80 catch WR that does a lot with his catches. I'm also not as big of a fan as others are and I think those #'s are close to his ceiling. However, I don't think his floor is much lower than that either.

OK, but here is my point. He is a smallish WR, not all of them are going to be Steve Smith...and even he breaks down and has a medical report that is getting lengthy. Snatana Moss is someitmes mentioned and he also has missed time due to injury. The point is Holmes is not the go over the middle guy...that is Hines Ward who might not be a big WR either but he is taller and he has a tendency for coming up with big plays on critical downs. Holmes stretches the field. With Pittsburgh looking like they want to run the ball more, you could make a case where Holmes will be lucky to get about 3-4 catches a game. He is likely somewhere in the 48-64 range, he has a high ypc so maybe 16-17 ypc...18+ is a lot year in and year out...he also went form 2 to 8 in his TD, so maybe he slides back to 5-6. I just think your stats are a little off, but GM you are entitled to project whatever you like. That's what makes this stuff fun. I could be totally wrong and I have a feeling I will likely be in the monority on this one.

I understand where you're coming from and I don't have a problem with your projection at all. As I said, I'm not as high on him as others. However, projecting him at 75 rec for the year is not even 5 rec/game. I just don't see how that projection is so off-base to elicit a "HTH does he jump from 52 to 75". It's not like I'm predicting him to catch 90-100 balls. I mean, 29 players last year had 70 catches or more. It's not like 75 is exclusive territory. If Kevin Curtis, B. Berrian, and McDonald can catch that many balls, I think Holmes can realistically do it considering his talent and how he's improved in just 2 yrs in the league.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Holmes had 942 receiving yards last season despite missing three full games and being hampered in others. He's a solid starting WR in an offense led by one of the best QB's in the NFL. I don't see him becoming a high reception guy anytime soon, but he will get his looks each week and he's a constant threat to break a big play. I look for him to finish the season with about 60 catches for 1,100 yards and 7 scores.

That's a serious YPC you're projecting here. Predicting him to top 18 ypc again is a bit on the high side, IMO. I'm expecting something along the lines of 75/1100/9.

HTH does he jump from 52 to 75?If it is due to injury, I got news for everyone...he's a small WR and might miss time every year.

Because I don't just copy and paste stats from last year. In his 2nd year, he had 52 in limited play. I don't think projecting a jump to 75 is that large of a jump. I see him him in the same mold as Burress. A 70-80 catch WR that does a lot with his catches. I'm also not as big of a fan as others are and I think those #'s are close to his ceiling. However, I don't think his floor is much lower than that either.

OK, but here is my point. He is a smallish WR, not all of them are going to be Steve Smith...and even he breaks down and has a medical report that is getting lengthy. Snatana Moss is someitmes mentioned and he also has missed time due to injury. The point is Holmes is not the go over the middle guy...that is Hines Ward who might not be a big WR either but he is taller and he has a tendency for coming up with big plays on critical downs. Holmes stretches the field. With Pittsburgh looking like they want to run the ball more, you could make a case where Holmes will be lucky to get about 3-4 catches a game. He is likely somewhere in the 48-64 range, he has a high ypc so maybe 16-17 ypc...18+ is a lot year in and year out...he also went form 2 to 8 in his TD, so maybe he slides back to 5-6. I just think your stats are a little off, but GM you are entitled to project whatever you like. That's what makes this stuff fun. I could be totally wrong and I have a feeling I will likely be in the monority on this one.

I understand where you're coming from and I don't have a problem with your projection at all. As I said, I'm not as high on him as others. However, projecting him at 75 rec for the year is not even 5 rec/game. I just don't see how that projection is so off-base to elicit a "HTH does he jump from 52 to 75". It's not like I'm predicting him to catch 90-100 balls. I mean, 29 players last year had 70 catches or more. It's not like 75 is exclusive territory. If Kevin Curtis, B. Berrian, and McDonald can catch that many balls, I think Holmes can realistically do it considering his talent and how he's improved in just 2 yrs in the league.

Well said, duly noted.

 

[EBF]

You're throwing around some awfully big names there EBF...seriously want to rethink some of that? It's cool, you have a strong opinion on Holmes, I simply won't draft him not because I couldn't use him but he will go off the board long before I would be comfortable with grabbing him.

You said Holmes was small and implied that he will have durability problems because of this. Holmes is listed by NFL.com as 5'11" 189 pounds. Here is a list of the top ten active receivers in career yards along with their listed height and weight from NFL.com:1. Isaac Bruce - 6'0" 1882. Marvin Harrison - 6'0" 1853. Terrell Owens - 6'3" 2184. Randy Moss - 6'4" 2105. Torry Holt - 6'0" 1906. Keenan McCardell - 6'1" 1917. Joey Galloway - 5'11" 1978. Eric Moulds - 6'2" 2259. Muhsin Muhammad - 6'2" 21510. Derrick Mason - 5'10" 19250% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within one inch of Santonio's listed height. 50% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within five pounds of Santonio's listed weight. The top two receivers in the NFL, Isaac Bruce and Marvin Harrison, are within one inch and 4 pounds. But Holmes is too small to stay healthy and be productive?

 

[jurb26]

Holmes is one of the best young WRs in the NFL and yet it doesn't seem as if enough people know about him or at least know how good he is. He is a great route runner, creates separation, is consistently behind defenses (hence the high YPC) and has sure hands. Being a Steeler fan and watching every game it seems obvious that Pitt looked for way to get Holmes more involved in the offense last year and I think that will continue this year.

72 reception, 1170 yds, 9 Tds

 

[FUBAR]

You're throwing around some awfully big names there EBF...seriously want to rethink some of that? It's cool, you have a strong opinion on Holmes, I simply won't draft him not because I couldn't use him but he will go off the board long before I would be comfortable with grabbing him.

You said Holmes was small and implied that he will have durability problems because of this. Holmes is listed by NFL.com as 5'11" 189 pounds. Here is a list of the top ten active receivers in career yards along with their listed height and weight from NFL.com:1. Isaac Bruce - 6'0" 1882. Marvin Harrison - 6'0" 1853. Terrell Owens - 6'3" 2184. Randy Moss - 6'4" 2105. Torry Holt - 6'0" 1906. Keenan McCardell - 6'1" 1917. Joey Galloway - 5'11" 1978. Eric Moulds - 6'2" 2259. Muhsin Muhammad - 6'2" 21510. Derrick Mason - 5'10" 19250% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within one inch of Santonio's listed height. 50% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within five pounds of Santonio's listed weight. The top two receivers in the NFL, Isaac Bruce and Marvin Harrison, are within one inch and 4 pounds. But Holmes is too small to stay healthy and be productive?

I don't know if he's the same student of the game, but physically, Marvin's not a bad comparison. His QB isn't far from Peyton, so this could be interesting.Santonio is faster, but isn't used much in the short game, partly because they already have one of the better receivers in that area. The Ben/Santonio combo could become one of the premier duos in the NFL.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

He was on his way to having a monster season until he suffered a high-ankle sprain against the Jets which affected him for nearly a month. When he got better he came back with a vengeance putting up 133 yards in week 16, 98 yards and a TD in week 17. When healthy he's a really good wide receiver playing catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

75/1200/8

Santonio Holmes is the perfect #2 wide receiver and he can be a #1 if a couple of things go his way.

 

[TaxMan]

You're throwing around some awfully big names there EBF...seriously want to rethink some of that? It's cool, you have a strong opinion on Holmes, I simply won't draft him not because I couldn't use him but he will go off the board long before I would be comfortable with grabbing him.

You said Holmes was small and implied that he will have durability problems because of this. Holmes is listed by NFL.com as 5'11" 189 pounds.

Here is a list of the top ten active receivers in career yards along with their listed height and weight from NFL.com:

1. Isaac Bruce - 6'0" 188

2. Marvin Harrison - 6'0" 185

3. Terrell Owens - 6'3" 218

4. Randy Moss - 6'4" 210

5. Torry Holt - 6'0" 190

6. Keenan McCardell - 6'1" 191

7. Joey Galloway - 5'11" 197

8. Eric Moulds - 6'2" 225

9. Muhsin Muhammad - 6'2" 215

10. Derrick Mason - 5'10" 192

50% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within one inch of Santonio's listed height.

50% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within five pounds of Santonio's listed weight.

The top two receivers in the NFL, Isaac Bruce and Marvin Harrison, are within one inch and 4 pounds.

But Holmes is too small to stay healthy and be productive?

I don't know if he's the same student of the game, but physically, Marvin's not a bad comparison. His QB isn't far from Peyton, so this could be interesting.Santonio is faster, but isn't used much in the short game, partly because they already have one of the better receivers in that area. The Ben/Santonio combo could become one of the premier duos in the NFL.

I think you may be right, though Ben only throws 460+ pass att. per year compared to Manning's 520. Harrison is always in the 85-90 rec mark, while I see Santonio only in the 70-75 max. Santonio's dynasty value will hinge on his ability to get into the endzone. Will he be a 6-8 TD guy or be more like a 9-11 in the coming years.

 

[ADP]

15 Games - 72/1140/9 (15.8ypc, 76ypg, 4.8cpg)

 

[FUBAR]

You're throwing around some awfully big names there EBF...seriously want to rethink some of that? It's cool, you have a strong opinion on Holmes, I simply won't draft him not because I couldn't use him but he will go off the board long before I would be comfortable with grabbing him.

You said Holmes was small and implied that he will have durability problems because of this. Holmes is listed by NFL.com as 5'11" 189 pounds.

Here is a list of the top ten active receivers in career yards along with their listed height and weight from NFL.com:

1. Isaac Bruce - 6'0" 188

2. Marvin Harrison - 6'0" 185

3. Terrell Owens - 6'3" 218

4. Randy Moss - 6'4" 210

5. Torry Holt - 6'0" 190

6. Keenan McCardell - 6'1" 191

7. Joey Galloway - 5'11" 197

8. Eric Moulds - 6'2" 225

9. Muhsin Muhammad - 6'2" 215

10. Derrick Mason - 5'10" 192

50% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within one inch of Santonio's listed height.

50% of the top ten active WR's in the NFL are within five pounds of Santonio's listed weight.

The top two receivers in the NFL, Isaac Bruce and Marvin Harrison, are within one inch and 4 pounds.

But Holmes is too small to stay healthy and be productive?

I don't know if he's the same student of the game, but physically, Marvin's not a bad comparison. His QB isn't far from Peyton, so this could be interesting.Santonio is faster, but isn't used much in the short game, partly because they already have one of the better receivers in that area. The Ben/Santonio combo could become one of the premier duos in the NFL.

I think you may be right, though Ben only throws 460+ pass att. per year compared to Manning's 520.

Harrison is always in the 85-90 rec mark, while I see Santonio only in the 70-75 max. Santonio's dynasty value will hinge on his ability to get into the endzone. Will he be a 6-8 TD guy or be more like a 9-11 in the coming years.

True and a good point. But if his first few years are any indication, Ben will complete a higher percentage of those attempts. Probably still not the 300 completions Peyton gets, but 260 is pretty good.You actually raise another point, many have said Ben can't throw as much, or for as many TDs, as he did last year, but the Steelers were the 2nd least passing team last year, only the Vikings threw less. The 3rd most running team (Titans and Jaguars). There's no reason to think Ben will throw less in the future (maybe less TDs, but we'll see on that).

 

[5-ish Finkle]

but the Steelers were the 2nd least passing team last year

A lot of people are neglecting this statistic.They(the Steelers) also didn't just give Roethlisberger 100 million dollars to hand off 40 times a game. Yeah, they drafted Mendenhall in the 1st. The followed it up by selecting another WR in round 2. Seems to me like they want to score more, regardless of how they do it.All this talk about the Steelers wanting to run more is all well and good.....but the fact remains that they wanted to do that last season, according to the coach in TC, and pretty much did, but were still able to put up the passing #s that they did. Why would they take their foot off the pedal that much with the skill position guys they have? Especially when you consider that, at least for '08, their defense is aging and doesn't have a lot of depth along the front 7. Not totally off the wall to expect some regression on D, so they may be forced to throw more. That Pittsburgh offense is very, very close to being dynamic. Their OC is a former Tom Moore underling. Arians has been espousing his belief in the "Colts system" since he was hired. The Steelers have an excellent QB. They have a stable of running backs at present(one of whom the current OC has compared to "James in his Indy years", for what that's worth). They have 2 excellent starting wideouts and among the other bodies should probably have 2 more average or better ones. They have 2 good pass receiving TEs. Given how members of their staff have cited the Colts as a template on more than one occasion since Arians/Tomlin were hired, it won't be that shocking to me to see them attempt to ape them sooner rather than later(whether they'll be successful or not is another discussion). They'll certainly run it more when they're ahead....but they have too many bullets to shoot to just ignore the passing game. The only thing I see holding this team's offense back from being all it can be is the offensive line. They get that taken care of in the next season or two and watch out. This, potentially, is not your father's Steeler offense.As for Holmes, everything has already basically been touched on as far as his positives. Yeah, his ceiling may be 80 catches, but I don't see his floor being anywhere in the neighborhood of 50 either.For 2008, I can see 75 catches, 1200 yards with 6-9 TDs if he can play at least 14 games. Just over 5 grabs a game at around 16 yards per if he missed a couple. Just under 5 catches per if he plays the full slate. 2009 and beyond I could see him upticking some as Ward slows down/their OL improves. How much would be open for debate. Physical skills and the requisite rock at QB would bode well, one would think.

 

[gianmarco]

but the Steelers were the 2nd least passing team last year

A lot of people are neglecting this statistic.They(the Steelers) also didn't just give Roethlisberger 100 million dollars to hand off 40 times a game. Yeah, they drafted Mendenhall in the 1st. The followed it up by selecting another WR in round 2. Seems to me like they want to score more, regardless of how they do it.All this talk about the Steelers wanting to run more is all well and good.....but the fact remains that they wanted to do that last season, according to the coach in TC, and pretty much did, but were still able to put up the passing #s that they did. Why would they take their foot off the pedal that much with the skill position guys they have? Especially when you consider that, at least for '08, their defense is aging and doesn't have a lot of depth along the front 7. Not totally off the wall to expect some regression on D, so they may be forced to throw more. That Pittsburgh offense is very, very close to being dynamic. Their OC is a former Tom Moore underling. Arians has been espousing his belief in the "Colts system" since he was hired. The Steelers have an excellent QB. They have a stable of running backs at present(one of whom the current OC has compared to "James in his Indy years", for what that's worth). They have 2 excellent starting wideouts and among the other bodies should probably have 2 more average or better ones. They have 2 good pass receiving TEs. Given how members of their staff have cited the Colts as a template on more than one occasion since Arians/Tomlin were hired, it won't be that shocking to me to see them attempt to ape them sooner rather than later(whether they'll be successful or not is another discussion). They'll certainly run it more when they're ahead....but they have too many bullets to shoot to just ignore the passing game. The only thing I see holding this team's offense back from being all it can be is the offensive line. They get that taken care of in the next season or two and watch out. This, potentially, is not your father's Steeler offense.As for Holmes, everything has already basically been touched on as far as his positives. Yeah, his ceiling may be 80 catches, but I don't see his floor being anywhere in the neighborhood of 50 either.For 2008, I can see 75 catches, 1200 yards with 6-9 TDs if he can play at least 14 games. Just over 5 grabs a game at around 16 yards per if he missed a couple. Just under 5 catches per if he plays the full slate. 2009 and beyond I could see him upticking some as Ward slows down/their OL improves. How much would be open for debate. Physical skills and the requisite rock at QB would bode well, one would think.

Love to read stuff like this around here from people that are obviously in tune with the situation.

 

[TaxMan]

but the Steelers were the 2nd least passing team last year

A lot of people are neglecting this statistic.They(the Steelers) also didn't just give Roethlisberger 100 million dollars to hand off 40 times a game. Yeah, they drafted Mendenhall in the 1st. The followed it up by selecting another WR in round 2. Seems to me like they want to score more, regardless of how they do it.All this talk about the Steelers wanting to run more is all well and good.....but the fact remains that they wanted to do that last season, according to the coach in TC, and pretty much did, but were still able to put up the passing #s that they did. Why would they take their foot off the pedal that much with the skill position guys they have? Especially when you consider that, at least for '08, their defense is aging and doesn't have a lot of depth along the front 7. Not totally off the wall to expect some regression on D, so they may be forced to throw more. That Pittsburgh offense is very, very close to being dynamic. Their OC is a former Tom Moore underling. Arians has been espousing his belief in the "Colts system" since he was hired. The Steelers have an excellent QB. They have a stable of running backs at present(one of whom the current OC has compared to "James in his Indy years", for what that's worth). They have 2 excellent starting wideouts and among the other bodies should probably have 2 more average or better ones. They have 2 good pass receiving TEs. Given how members of their staff have cited the Colts as a template on more than one occasion since Arians/Tomlin were hired, it won't be that shocking to me to see them attempt to ape them sooner rather than later(whether they'll be successful or not is another discussion). They'll certainly run it more when they're ahead....but they have too many bullets to shoot to just ignore the passing game. The only thing I see holding this team's offense back from being all it can be is the offensive line. They get that taken care of in the next season or two and watch out. This, potentially, is not your father's Steeler offense.As for Holmes, everything has already basically been touched on as far as his positives. Yeah, his ceiling may be 80 catches, but I don't see his floor being anywhere in the neighborhood of 50 either.For 2008, I can see 75 catches, 1200 yards with 6-9 TDs if he can play at least 14 games. Just over 5 grabs a game at around 16 yards per if he missed a couple. Just under 5 catches per if he plays the full slate. 2009 and beyond I could see him upticking some as Ward slows down/their OL improves. How much would be open for debate. Physical skills and the requisite rock at QB would bode well, one would think.

Love to read stuff like this around here from people that are obviously in tune with the situation.

a lot of very good points raised !!One negative I see is how valuable would Holmes be in PPR leagues, from game to game consistency. It seems like he would be more likely to have 3rec, 50 yds, 2rec-71 yd games due to him being a big-play guy. True, he may have a 5-120-2 TDs type of game, but for me i'd rather have the consistent 5-70 and a TD once every other game. thoughts?

 

[FUBAR]

One negative I see is how valuable would Holmes be in PPR leagues, from game to game consistency. It seems like he would be more likely to have 3rec, 50 yds, 2rec-71 yd games due to him being a big-play guy. True, he may have a 5-120-2 TDs type of game, but for me i'd rather have the consistent 5-70 and a TD once every other game. thoughts?

Agreed. I personally don't mind one or two big play guys on my team, as long as my other positions are solid. If I draft a guy like Portis (about as consistent as they come) early, I'm more likely to take a guy like Holmes later. I don't want a whole team of them though, as that's a recipe for a bad day in the playoffs.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

One negative I see is how valuable would Holmes be in PPR leagues, from game to game consistency. It seems like he would be more likely to have 3rec, 50 yds, 2rec-71 yd games due to him being a big-play guy. True, he may have a 5-120-2 TDs type of game, but for me i'd rather have the consistent 5-70 and a TD once every other game. thoughts?

I think that's a fair concern for 2008. He's still going to be the "big play guy" to Ward's "chain mover" role. Going forward, I think he'll most likely always be looked at as the homerun hitter(at least until father time catches up), but something else that's being forgotten/ignored is that Holmes is NOT unable to run crossing routes. He has merely not been required to do so that much considering he's on a team that features a guy who is one of the best over the past dozen years at that opposite him. Holmes will never be Ward when it comes to going over the middle and, basically, dealing out punishment to defenders. That does not mean that he is incapable of being effective running something other than fly/post patterns. What will be interesting to see with Holmes is what happens AW(After Ward) with he and Sweed. Does Sweed develop enough to be a Burress-esque deep threat(i.e. not really fast, but more of a handful due to mismatches) while Holmes becomes the "go to guy" regardless of down and distance? Or does Sweed take over the "chain mover" role keeping Holmes as the "homerun hitter" in perpetuity? What if Sweed tanks and Holmes is the target of consistent doubles? Can he beat that consistently if so?I think he has a lot going in his favor: He's young. He's a great athlete. He has plus hands and gets good seperation. He has a great, young QB who the team is commited to priming the offense around, regardless of how many folks want to think they're going back to 1976 and pony backfields. And at present he's on a team with too many offensive threats in the passing attack to consistently draw doubles/a teams' #1 CB.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I think Finkle has brought up excellent points. Holmes is a very good route-runner for a young WR, and that has more to do with his huge ypc than his speed. He was an excellent midddle of the field WR at Ohio St. and went 1st at his position because he was the most polished, NFL ready WR in his draft class (as weak as it was). I'm definately on board w/ the 70ish and 1100 + yard predictions, but I'd scale back the TDs a little. M'hall should be what this team has been missing for the last two years in short-yardage/goalline. Take 5 TDs from Ben for that and you have to count at least one of those to Holmes. Another reason to scale back his TDs is the addition of Sweed, and the REASON they got Sweed. Ben prefers large targets and especially in the red zone. Miller, Ward, Washington and Sweed (add Spaeth and M'hall if you like) will take attention from the not-tall Holmes. I'd call Holmes the 1b in this offense, but the #3 or #4 in the red zone.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Pittsburgh ran the ball ALOT last year 3rd in yards per game in the league, and Holmes still had a terriffic season. He really broke out, and led the team in yards and receiving tds---just short of 1000 yards, 8 tds.

Back to full health, he should pick up where he left off. 3 more games, he could have easily hit 1200 yards and 10 tds last year...I see no reason he can't this year. Even if they did draft a running back, I can't see them running it that much more than they have recently.

His ypc could drop some, but in 2 years in the league--16.8 and 18.1.

66 receptions

1089 yards

9 tds

12 rushes

89 yards

1 td.

 

[teamroc]

OK, but here is my point. He is a smallish WR, not all of them are going to be Steve Smith...and even he breaks down and has a medical report that is getting lengthy. Snatana Moss is someitmes mentioned and he also has missed time due to injury. The point is Holmes is not the go over the middle guy...that is Hines Ward who might not be a big WR either but he is taller and he has a tendency for coming up with big plays on critical downs. Holmes stretches the field. With Pittsburgh looking like they want to run the ball more, you could make a case where Holmes will be lucky to get about 3-4 catches a game. He is likely somewhere in the 48-64 range, he has a high ypc so maybe 16-17 ypc...18+ is a lot year in and year out...he also went form 2 to 8 in his TD, so maybe he slides back to 5-6. I just think your stats are a little off, but GM you are entitled to project whatever you like. That's what makes this stuff fun. I could be totally wrong and I have a feeling I will likely be in the monority on this one.

You're awesome MoP. It's like yelling at a girl who backs a car into a pole. She doesn't know any better, what's the point.Your "point" is he's "smallish" and "might always miss time with injury".Do you actually have any numbers based on his size? What are the injury rates? What kind of risk are we looking at? Also you realize he's not small right? But there are no stats. This is a MoP point. It's MoPs gut leaking over the forum. Go bump the thread where Portis was a bad pick in the 3rd round last year and let his owners down. As others pointed out, if Holmes is injury prone due to his size, then so are 40% of the WRs in the NFL. And of course none of it is based on any statistical analysis, you just have a feeling. The guy was on pace for 70,1100,10 more or less. You talk about AJs PPG making him an uber monster. You don't really mention Holmes PPG do you? You cherry pick your stats every thread. Portis it was FF regular season, cut out the FF playoffs. AJ was it PPG in the playoffs. Holmes it's "freakishly small WR who is injury prone". I also love how going from 2 tds to 8 tds in his 1st to 2nd year, is a bad thing. Yeah he peaked in year 2. I smell regression also. Come on. That offense is going to be VERY good the next few years. Mendenhall, Parker, Sweed, Ward, Holmes, Miller, Big Ben? They have weapons all over the field. I like Holmes havign Big Ben and the Steelers. I like them drafting Sweed. The more explosive the offense is, the better for for Holmes.And the fact Holmes is almost 6' tall, and you bring up Steve Smith? What are you talking about? Steve Smith? *lol* The guy is 5'11 189 lbs! It hurts my head when I read some of your stuff.

 

[PatsWillWin]

but the Steelers were the 2nd least passing team last year

A lot of people are neglecting this statistic.They(the Steelers) also didn't just give Roethlisberger 100 million dollars to hand off 40 times a game. Yeah, they drafted Mendenhall in the 1st. The followed it up by selecting another WR in round 2. Seems to me like they want to score more, regardless of how they do it.All this talk about the Steelers wanting to run more is all well and good.....but the fact remains that they wanted to do that last season, according to the coach in TC, and pretty much did, but were still able to put up the passing #s that they did. Why would they take their foot off the pedal that much with the skill position guys they have? Especially when you consider that, at least for '08, their defense is aging and doesn't have a lot of depth along the front 7. Not totally off the wall to expect some regression on D, so they may be forced to throw more.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the Steelers were still in the bottom 1/3 in the league in pass attempts, yards, etc. The only passing category they blew up in is TD's, and I don't think anyone expects that to happen again this year.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

No question in my mind that the Steelers offense runs through Roethlisberger and his ability to make big plays. Though Ward is likely to lead the team in receptions Ben's #1 big playmaker is Santonio Holmes. Throw in the fact that the Steelers have a brutal schedule and probably won't be salting away many games in the 3rd quarter.

I'll project Holmes for:

72 receptions

1200 yards

10 TD

Injuries and/or the development of Limas Sweed + Nate Washington could bring these numbers down but I think Holmes is still developing and has a great shot to be a top 10-12 FF WR this year.

 

[kethnaab]

Ben said "I want a tall receiver to open things up in the red zone"

and, with their 2nd round pick, they get...Limas Sweed, all 6'5 of him

Ben got his wish, don't think for a moment that Sweed doesn't eat into Holmes' possible TD catches

not a red zone threat, but he'll be a deep threat all season long. Ward gets the higher reception total and moves the chains, Sweed gets a ton of red zone looks. Washington and Reid...sit on the bench.

A lot.

Mendy will also eat into that TD total of Ben's simply because he's a few echelons better than Davenport, who was the Steelers' "red zone threat" last season at RB.

Santonio's points will come in bunches because of the long ball. He'll be a situational FF starter, anywhere from WR1 to WR3 depending upon the matchup. He does have the ability to catch that deep slant and turn it into a 75-yarder though, hence his yardage and TD totals

floor, assuming 14+ games: 60/950/6

ceiling, assuming 16 games: 70/1100/8

 

[Ministry of Pain]

OK, but here is my point. He is a smallish WR, not all of them are going to be Steve Smith...and even he breaks down and has a medical report that is getting lengthy. Snatana Moss is someitmes mentioned and he also has missed time due to injury.

The point is Holmes is not the go over the middle guy...that is Hines Ward who might not be a big WR either but he is taller and he has a tendency for coming up with big plays on critical downs. Holmes stretches the field.

With Pittsburgh looking like they want to run the ball more, you could make a case where Holmes will be lucky to get about 3-4 catches a game. He is likely somewhere in the 48-64 range, he has a high ypc so maybe 16-17 ypc...18+ is a lot year in and year out...he also went form 2 to 8 in his TD, so maybe he slides back to 5-6. I just think your stats are a little off, but GM you are entitled to project whatever you like. That's what makes this stuff fun. I could be totally wrong and I have a feeling I will likely be in the monority on this one.

You're awesome MoP. It's like yelling at a girl who backs a car into a pole. She doesn't know any better, what's the point.Your "point" is he's "smallish" and "might always miss time with injury".

Do you actually have any numbers based on his size? What are the injury rates? What kind of risk are we looking at?

Also you realize he's not small right?

But there are no stats. This is a MoP point. It's MoPs gut leaking over the forum. Go bump the thread where Portis was a bad pick in the 3rd round last year and let his owners down. As others pointed out, if Holmes is injury prone due to his size, then so are 40% of the WRs in the NFL. And of course none of it is based on any statistical analysis, you just have a feeling.

The guy was on pace for 70,1100,10 more or less. You talk about AJs PPG making him an uber monster. You don't really mention Holmes PPG do you? You cherry pick your stats every thread. Portis it was FF regular season, cut out the FF playoffs. AJ was it PPG in the playoffs. Holmes it's "freakishly small WR who is injury prone". I also love how going from 2 tds to 8 tds in his 1st to 2nd year, is a bad thing. Yeah he peaked in year 2. I smell regression also. Come on. That offense is going to be VERY good the next few years. Mendenhall, Parker, Sweed, Ward, Holmes, Miller, Big Ben? They have weapons all over the field. I like Holmes havign Big Ben and the Steelers. I like them drafting Sweed. The more explosive the offense is, the better for for Holmes.

And the fact Holmes is almost 6' tall, and you bring up Steve Smith? What are you talking about? Steve Smith? *lol* The guy is 5'11 189 lbs! It hurts my head when I read some of your stuff.

1. Can you dial back the venom just a tad. I don't think I have put anyone down just because they have a different POV. It's gonna be a long summer and if you think this is the only time you and I will have differing POV you're mistaken.2. He is listed at 5-10 over on Doug Drinen's Pro-Football-Reference...not sure where you all get your numbers from but I tend to go there. Either way he is not a tall WR. Have there been guys that have done well that were not tall? Sure, but his ypc seem to indicate that he is more of a long ball threat than a guy that is running slants over the middle. I look at Holmes a little bit like a Joey Galloway...maybe that's a good thing and maybe that's not.

3. You bring up Andre Johnson...not sure why. These are 2 entirely different animals at WR. I don't cherry pick stats, I simply do not get married to players. Lot of emotion flowing thru this thread, not exactly sure why. We either have a lot of dynasty owners that want to believe they have a top5 WR, or a lot of Steelerfans who can't stand anything other than "Holmes is God". I also do not appreciate the way you put quotes in your post that I did not say...the words "freakishly small" did not come out of my mouth/hands.

Furthermore I find your post to be an attack more than anything. If you disagree with what I have posted, simply state the case, no need to start an attack. It only makes you look weak. The fact I am in the minority on this guy only makes me think I might really be on to something. Every year guys get caught up on certain players and get married to them.

And as far as stats go...I think I showed both the highs and lows. His game logs look nothing like Andre Johnson's...Santonio Holmes and Andre Johnson. Most notably, AJ had less than 6 catches in only 1 game last season...he was on pace for his 2nd 100 catch season. The year before that he had 6+ catches in 10 of his games. I don't see that with Holmes right now, maybe you do and can explain without all the put downs.

 

[Franknbeans]

80 receptions, 1275 yards, 8 TD's

 

[twitch]

Holmes had some tough luck with injuries last year. But he's a bigtime player. And I do believe this is his 3rd year. He's a playmaking stud. And Hines Ward's game has definitely dropped off here over the past couple of years. He's 32 now, and his physical style has caught up with him somewhat. Holmes is situated to grab that torch. The man is just flat a tough cover. Sure, going over the middle wont ever really be his thing. But if he can learn to just get down and avoid those big collisions when he needs to, ala Harrison and Bruce, he'll be a solid producer.

16 gs

70 rec

1190yds

9TDs

8rushes

yds

0TDs

1/1 pa

30yds

1TD

 

[Tanner9919]

He's small at 5-10 and 185...he also missed some time last season.

Highlights: 6/128/2TDs, 4/110/2TD, 5/75/TD, 4/98/TD...

The problem I have with Pitt is that they have drafted another RB in the 1st round, they seem committed to wanting to run the ball. Their OL took a major hit in the off season, and I think Big Ben is going to come off the 32 TD of a year ago to something more like 24 let's just say. Holmes is not a guy that will go over the middle, he is more of a straight line route runner which is fine but he is not likely to ever log 80 catches.

50/850/5 TD...he is being drafted way too high in most of the mocks that I have seen.

Pittsburgh is committed to running the ball? Wow..there's a shocker. Perhaps Pitt drafted a RB because their starter broke his leg late last season and might not be 100% at the start of training camp?!

who cares if they drafted a RB early on, they need to get depth at the position.

Holmes is one of the best, young WR's in the NFL. He'll likely catch 70 balls and double-digit TD's.

70/1190/12

And, I wouldn't worry about Holmes missing games as much as I would worry about Hines Ward, a player who's missed games in each of the past 3 seasons, is 32, and is nearing the end of his career..

 

[Banger]

Poor man's Holt. 75-1100-7 but I wouldn't be surprised if he got more. Very talented, does everything pretty well but the big issue is getting the targets.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Some more juice for everyone to guzzle down.

Pittsburgh not only likes to run the football but they also are pretty tough against the rush as well. The past 3 years they have been #3, #3, and #3 each and every year at stopping the run. How many other top5 rush defenses have been able to manufacture 34 passing TD over the past 3 seasons? Let me help you out...

I will list the ranking in passing yds and then total passing TD...again these are the top5 rush defenses each of the past 3 years.

2005

1. San Diego-12th and 27 TD

2. Denver-18th and 18 TD

3. Pittsburgh- 24th and 21 TD

4. Carolina-17th and 25 TD

5. Seattle-13th and 25 TD

2006

1. Minnesota-18th and 13 TD

2. Baltimore 11th and 21 TD

3. Pittsburgh 9th and 23 TD

4. Jacksonville -24th and 17 TD

5. New England-12th and 25 TD

2007

1. Minnesota-28th and 12 TD

2. Baltimore-23rd and 13 TD

3. Pittsburgh-22nd and 34 TD

4. Washington-14th and 18TD

5. Tennessee-27th and 9TD

What does any of this mean? Typically when teams can stop the run, they are going to be at the least in tight football games. And if they are ahead, odds are they want to run the football. Pittsburgh by far had the best season passing the football for a team that could stop the run. And Pitt has been a top5 rush defense for a long time...occasionally they slip out of the top5-10.

My point is simply this to everyone that is guzzling down the Santonio Holmes Kool Aid at the moment. Do you really think Big Ben is going to toss 30+ scores agian this year? I like Rothy, I own him ina couple of dynasty leagues, but I am not delusional to start putting him into the Manning/Brady category just yet...I might even want a Drew Brees first who i think will have ot play catch up more than the Steelers.

If Big Ben were to throw a normal 20-25 TD...where would all those TD fall from? You think heath Miller is only going to have 2-3 scores? Won't a healthy Hines Ward in 2008 garner a couple of scores? New rookie Limas Sweed, and Nate Washington has 8 TD over the past 2 years, he always finds a way to score a few. People are saying that the drafting of a RB in the 1st is just because FWP might not be ready to go...if that were the case, they could have grabbed another RB later.

Seems like the board is set to pencil in Holmes for 70/1,100+/8-12 TD...I hope you all are right but I still stick with my guns for right now.

 

[twitch]

MOP-

I like that study. Good #s. And it of course makes good sense. But the quality of QB is equally as responsible as anything for those #s. Just in looking at '07, Tavarius Jackson, Jason Campbell, Vince Young and Kyle Boller? I need a barf bag. Good rushing D #s with those teams, but just look at those Qs also. Dalllas' rushing D was 6th. So, not top 5, but right there with #5 TN. They had a pretty nice passing O with a capable QB.

Roethlisberger is an elite QB. That's not going to suddenly change. He'll continue to put up #s. They just drafted Limas Sweed, and two of his best guys, Holmes and Miller, are entering their primes. The passing #s will sustain in Steeltown, imo. Holmes will put up #s as long as he stays on the field. I see him as a Lee Evans-type with a better QB.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP-I like that study. Good #s. And it of course makes good sense. But the quality of QB is equally as responsible as anything for those #s. Just in looking at '07, Tavarius Jackson, Jason Campbell, Vince Young and Kyle Boller? I need a barf bag. Good rushing D #s with those teams, but just look at those Qs also. Dalllas' rushing D was 6th. So, not top 5, but right there with #5 TN. They had a pretty nice passing O with a capable QB. Roethlisberger is an elite QB. That's not going to suddenly change. He'll continue to put up #s. They just drafted Limas Sweed, and two of his best guys, Holmes and Miller, are entering their primes. The passing #s will sustain in Steeltown, imo. Holmes will put up #s as long as he stays on the field. I see him as a Lee Evans-type with a better QB.

Good points...out of curiosity, how many Qbs have thrown for 32 TD on 404 pass attempts? I am betting not many.This board is going to have a heart attack when the FBG Mag hits stands...in fact I would preorder it if I were everyone.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I submit again.....that defense is aging/thin and it slowed down significantly vs. the run when Aaron Smith was injured. Guess who is reportedly still nursing that injury? And guess who is backing him up now? That's right....the same couple stiffs who got ran all over a season ago. I think it is more than fair to expect a regression on defense for Pittsburgh in '08. Maybe not a huge one, but a regression nonetheless. If Smith isn't right, it will be bad, bad, BAD for their run defense. That will potentially mean more playing from behind.

I have a question: How is projecting basically the same stats he'd have had a year ago in a full slate of games "guzzling" anything on Holmes? 4.5 catches a game isn't that outlandish of projection to me(it's right in the realm of where he was last season). That appears to be what most folks are saying in this thread. Tick down the YPC a bit from a year ago and that gets him in the neighborhood of 1,100+. I don't see anyone projecting 112 catches for 1600 yards anyplace.

But, FWIW, I think there's a greater chance of Roethlisberger approaching or suprassing 30 TD passes in the Arians offense than there is for a Parker/Mendenhall tandem to rush for 20+. Not by design, maybe, but because I think they're going to be forced to throw more than they will plan on.

 

[twitch]

MOP-I like that study. Good #s. And it of course makes good sense. But the quality of QB is equally as responsible as anything for those #s. Just in looking at '07, Tavarius Jackson, Jason Campbell, Vince Young and Kyle Boller? I need a barf bag. Good rushing D #s with those teams, but just look at those Qs also. Dalllas' rushing D was 6th. So, not top 5, but right there with #5 TN. They had a pretty nice passing O with a capable QB. Roethlisberger is an elite QB. That's not going to suddenly change. He'll continue to put up #s. They just drafted Limas Sweed, and two of his best guys, Holmes and Miller, are entering their primes. The passing #s will sustain in Steeltown, imo. Holmes will put up #s as long as he stays on the field. I see him as a Lee Evans-type with a better QB.

Good points...out of curiosity, how many Qbs have thrown for 32 TD on 404 pass attempts? I am betting not many.This board is going to have a heart attack when the FBG Mag hits stands...in fact I would preorder it if I were everyone.

Dont know off hand, but Id bet either 'none' or 'few'. But I did look up Terry Bradshaw's #s from back in the day, and in '78 he had 28TDs on only 368 attempts. Another 30 attempts could have put him over 30 perhaps. I appreciate the obvious ties to strong running D, running the ball and controlling the clock. Those 3 will forever be linked in football. But there are exceptions. But I think we're overthinking this a bit with regard to Holmes' stat potential. I think he's got 70 catch, 1200 yd potential even if Pittsburgh leads the league in rushing D. He's just a solid player, and they'll get him the ball.

 

[fantasyplayer]

Did you see Pittsburgh draft Mendenhall?

I think that says more about FWP than Holmes/Ward/Miller. When your best offensive player is your QB, you will throw the ball.

Do you think Big Ben is going to post 32 TD again? Really? If you can imagine him sliding off those numbers than they have to come from somewhere...

Holmes doesn't owe his value to TD catches. I only project him for about 6-8 next year, but he'll get plenty of yards. He had 824 as a rookie despite a slow start and he had 942 as a second year player despite missing significant time. There's almost no way he won't crack 900-1,000 next season unless he gets hurt. You've mentioned a couple times that he's small, but that's not really accurate. He's 5'10.5" and 188 pounds, which puts him in roughly the same range as guys like Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, and Donald Driver. He actually has a higher BMI than those guys. So while he's a little bit short, he's not small.

You're throwing around some awfully big names there EBF...seriously want to rethink some of that? It's cool, you have a strong opinion on Holmes, I simply won't draft him not because I couldn't use him but he will go off the board long before I would be comfortable with grabbing him.

I think EBF was referring to their similar physical statures, not that Holmes is, or ever will be, as good as any of these players.

 

[FUBAR]

...but I am not delusional to start putting him into the Manning/Brady category just yet...I might even want a Drew Brees first who i think will have ot play catch up more than the Steelers. If Big Ben were to throw a normal 20-25 TD...where would all those TD fall from? You think heath Miller is only going to have 2-3 scores? Won't a healthy Hines Ward in 2008 garner a couple of scores? New rookie Limas Sweed, and Nate Washington has 8 TD over the past 2 years, he always finds a way to score a few. People are saying that the drafting of a RB in the 1st is just because FWP might not be ready to go...if that were the case, they could have grabbed another RB later. Seems like the board is set to pencil in Holmes for 70/1,100+/8-12 TD...I hope you all are right but I still stick with my guns for right now.

You raise some good points, and I agree with many. 1. You're right, he's not Peyton, before last year, neither was Brady. Pittsburgh won't go after Randy Moss, but the point here is good coaches, and Tomlin is one already, utilize their strengths. If Holmes progresses like many of us think he can, there's no reason Ben can't throw for 30 each year. 2. A good running game can help the deep game. This statement is more intuitive than stat-backed, so I might be wrong, but if teams are focused on the run, Holmes is even more likely to get past their DBs. Ben has the arm and accuracy to make the most of it. 3. When Mendenhall was good value, and Pittsburgh likes to run the ball, they were not going to pass on him. That doesn't mean the passing game will lose anything.4. If Ben throws for 25 Tds, I would guess Washington, Sweed, and others would get a 5-7 total, leaving Ward, Holmes and Miller to share the other 18-20 about equally with 6 each. However, expecting Holmes to get a larger share is certainly reasonable.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Ben is the Steelers' best player, and the best QB in the league not named Manning or Brady. Of course Pittsburgh will continue to throw the ball, in the red zone and anywhere else on the field. To argue otherwise is pretty silly, IMO. The last few years Pittsburgh has focused on adding weapons in the passing game (Miller/Holmes/Sweed), which tells me the direction that they plan to move in on offense.

As for Holmes, the Steelers traded up to get him (and they have a very good draft record with early picks). He has looked good and shown improvement during his first two years in the NFL. He plays with a great QB. Sure, he'll have to share with Ward/Miller, but I think that he will emerge as the Steelers' #1 weapon in the passing game this year (Ward will catch more balls but Holmes will do more damage yardage and TD-wise).

70 catches for 1120 yaards and 9 TDs, minimal rushing

 

[Cookiemonster]

I think it's pretty simple. Remove 5 or so TD from the Steeler passing game and give it back to the abberation that was Parker's TDs, add a couple more and he shares them with M'hall. High 20's for Ben's TDs is a very reasonable expectation, and Santonio loses another one or two to Sweed. I don't think Holmes makes a magical 3rd year improvement, as I said before, he was a fairly polished WR coming into the draft. Ignore MoPs "deep ball/Galloway" comparisons as he's obviously not watched Ben/Holmes very often. Expect the ypc #s to regress a little but should still be among the best and subtract about 3 TDs from last year's projected 16 game totals.

 

[rzrback77]

I think that the Pittsburgh passing attack is a little bit of fool's gold. They have a solid roster at RB and they will use it to their advantage. They will not ignore the capabilities of their passing attack, but they will lean more heavily on the running game. And the outcome of that is that the passing stats will drop some.

Holmes has had 86 and 85 targets in his first two seasons, but that may be close to maximum. They still have Hines Ward and a solid pass catching TE in Miller. They have added a solid receiving RB in the Free Agent market in M. Moore and drafted another good receiving RB in Mendenhall. I think that the targets for the WRs could drop and they also added rookie Limas Sweed, the big WR that Big Ben sought for a red-zone option.

Santonio Holmes 88 targets 55 receptions for 855 yards 15.5 ypc and 5 TDs

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think that the Pittsburgh passing attack is a little bit of fool's gold. They have a solid roster at RB and they will use it to their advantage. They will not ignore the capabilities of their passing attack, but they will lean more heavily on the running game. And the outcome of that is that the passing stats will drop some.

You are dead wrong here on a few levels:A.) The Steelers were still one of the most run heavy offenses in the league last year (3rd in rushing attempts, 31st in passing attempts. If anything, I'd expect them to throw a bit more in 2008.B.) The Steelers should have a good RB group (assuming Mendenhall is as good as advertised). Their line, however, isn't any better than average, if that. Passing the ball in the red zone will likely be the most effective way to score TDs again.C.) Ben Roethlisberger is clearly the best player on the team, by a wide margin. Do you honestly believe that they won't want to use him to his capabilities, and put the ball in the hands of a rookie RB or Willie Parker at the end of drives?D.) The Steelers have clearly made getting Ben weapons a high priority (Miller and Holmes in the 1st, Sweed in the 2nd, Spaeth/Reid in the 3rd). Seems to indicate to me that they want to open things up more.

 

[Burning Sensation]

In non-PPR leagues, Holmes finished #8 in PPG for WR's. He will not be as consistent of a scorer as other top 20 WR's, and loses some value in PPR's, but his big play ability easily make him a top 15 WR in non-PPR.

70 catches, 1190 yards, 9 TD's

5 rush, 40 yards, 0 TD's

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think it's pretty simple. Remove 5 or so TD from the Steeler passing game and give it back to the abberation that was Parker's TDs, add a couple more and he shares them with M'hall. High 20's for Ben's TDs is a very reasonable expectation, and Santonio loses another one or two to Sweed. I don't think Holmes makes a magical 3rd year improvement, as I said before, he was a fairly polished WR coming into the draft. Ignore MoPs "deep ball/Galloway" comparisons as he's obviously not watched Ben/Holmes very often. Expect the ypc #s to regress a little but should still be among the best and subtract about 3 TDs from last year's projected 16 game totals.

Ignore???You are projecting Holmes to post about 60/900/5-6TD...pretty close to Joey Galloway territory, yes/no?