Player Spotlight: Steve Slaton (1 Viewer)

[Bert]

Slaton is heavily involved in the passing game, that prediction of 27 catches is very low.

From post #30:In my projection I should have expanded on the fact that Slaton only averaged 14 carries and 1.3 receptions in the eight games Green played. Furthermore, Slaton averaged only 13 carries in the five out of eight games Green did not leave early due to injury.

16 x 1.3 = 20.8

If anything, 27 receptions is a very generous projection.

Given your dependence on last year’s stats I assume you are ranking DeAngelo Williams as the number 1 fantasy back for 2009?

 

[jsharlan]

Maybe you are forgetting that Green, who isnt with the team anymore, was an EXCELLENT receiver over his career, and Chris Brown isnt much of a receiving threat over his. The Houston backups to Slaton are Brown, Moats, and maybe Foster if he makes the team. Brown and Foster are injury concerns, and Moats is a less talented version of Slaton. Meaning injuries could make Slaton's competition even less. Heres some more useless numbers for you:

If you combine all other backs last year into 1, this injury prone version of voltron got only 30% of the carries for a 3.7 YPC average with a 7 carry per game average, 21% of the receptions with 0.8 catches per game average.

Slaton who was a rookie and opened the season as a change of pace back got 70% of the carries, 17 carries a game average with a 4.8 YPC average. He got 79% of the receptions with an over 3 catch per game average.

Green when healthy was a very good running back, who over his 6 good years in Green Bay was averaging 55 catches per year. As you can see a healthy Green would be huge competition for catches for Slaton. Too bad Green is gone now. If anything Slaton's receiving opportunities will increase based on the personnel they have now.

With the type of Offense Houston runs, Slaton will never threaten for a 25+ carry per game average, but with his receiving out of the backfield, it helps to even out his potential, and makes his potential huge in PPR.

 

[H.K.]

Slaton is heavily involved in the passing game, that prediction of 27 catches is very low.

From post #30:In my projection I should have expanded on the fact that Slaton only averaged 14 carries and 1.3 receptions in the eight games Green played. Furthermore, Slaton averaged only 13 carries in the five out of eight games Green did not leave early due to injury.

16 x 1.3 = 20.8

If anything, 27 receptions is a very generous projection.

Given your dependence on last year’s stats I assume you are ranking DeAngelo Williams as the number 1 fantasy back for 2009?

I am not sure where you are going here. This thread is about Slaton, and while I do not mind assisting people in understanding how he will be used in 2009, I will not allow the topic to get off track from the intended focus of a player spotlight.If it helps you any, I will let you know that my projections are not reliant on last years stats, but they are reliant on systems and opportunity dictated by coaching philosophy. My analysis irrefutably demonstrates that Kubiak will employ a full fledged RBBC when he has healthy options (again Kubiak lost his RB1, RB2, and RB3 last season so his only option was to play Slaton or waiver wire scrubs for most of the year), and it shows Slaton's role in the offense when he has a full roster.

So are you debating that Kubiak did not use RBBC when Green was available last season or are you debating that Kubiak did not say Brown will be the Short yardage GL back and part of the RBBC in Houston this year?

 

[jsharlan]

a RBBC would involve somewhat comparable talent levels, theres a HUGE drop off after Slaton in talent. When healthy, Brown will steal goal line looks as hes a power runner, but this isnt a case of Williams/Stewart, or McFadden/Bush, there really isnt comparable talent here.

 

[TheFanatic]

Take the 13 carries a game he averaged in the RBBC Kubiak runs with healthy options,

Do we have statistical proof of this statement? I honestly don't know...

 

[Todem]

In PPR scoring Steve Slaton has to be heavily considered as a top 5 back going into this season. Those that do not view him as such will miss out on a great opportunity to be able to draft this dynamic back in the late 1st round or early second in 12 team drafts.

Slaton is the real deal. It is so obvious when you watch him play!!!

 

[jsharlan]

Take the 13 carries a game he averaged in the RBBC Kubiak runs with healthy options,

Do we have statistical proof of this statement? I honestly don't know...

He's basing his stats on a guy who isnt on the team anymore. A healthy Green is way more talented than a healthy Brown.

 

[TheFanatic]

Take the 13 carries a game he averaged in the RBBC Kubiak runs with healthy options,

Do we have statistical proof of this statement? I honestly don't know...

He's basing his stats on a guy who isnt on the team anymore. A healthy Green is way more talented than a healthy Brown.

I'm just trying to remember when he used a RBBC when he had a healthy RB. Maybe he did and I'm missing it. Green was there in the twilight of his career. Was he ever truly healthy and thus toting the rock exclusively? Which begs the question. With a guy that proved he could shoulder the load last year and a seemingly healthy Chris Brown on the roster, will Kubiak go with a RBBC? HK obviously thinks so, which to me, makes me think that will not happen. Didn't read somewhere that Kubiak wanted to get the ball into the hands of Slaton more this year? Could be coach speak. But I'll take it over HK speak...

 

[jsharlan]

I will add that I am concerned about Slaton's long term value, but 2009 will be a good year. I personally expect Brown to get hurt like he always does, and next year's draft the Texans will draft someone in the 2nd round to challenge for a true RBBC. Theres at least 1-2 years of good value here with Slaton though.

 

[Devine Intervention]

People talk about Slaton wearing down because he took 70% of the carries in that offense, but why then does no one mention Chris Johnson?? This guy is taller and skinnier than Slaton is. Now you say Johnson only had to carry 50% of his teams work load in comparison to Slatons 70%.... but they still had the SAME number of carries at the end of the year. What people miss is that a team like Tenn runs the ball alot more than Hou so getting 70% of the carries on Hou isnt like getting 70% of the carries on a run heavy team. You shouldnt look at the % of carries but the actual amount of carries. Cause E.James couldve taken 100% of Ari carries and still ran for half of what Johnson ran for with only taking half the carries on his team. So if Slaton will wear down or not be able to handle the 260 carries per, then you have to have the same arguement for Johnson running 250 carries per.

 

[jsharlan]

Take the 13 carries a game he averaged in the RBBC Kubiak runs with healthy options,

Do we have statistical proof of this statement? I honestly don't know...

He's basing his stats on a guy who isnt on the team anymore. A healthy Green is way more talented than a healthy Brown.

I'm just trying to remember when he used a RBBC when he had a healthy RB. Maybe he did and I'm missing it. Green was there in the twilight of his career. Was he ever truly healthy and thus toting the rock exclusively? Which begs the question. With a guy that proved he could shoulder the load last year and a seemingly healthy Chris Brown on the roster, will Kubiak go with a RBBC? HK obviously thinks so, which to me, makes me think that will not happen. Didn't read somewhere that Kubiak wanted to get the ball into the hands of Slaton more this year? Could be coach speak. But I'll take it over HK speak...

Gary has never had a healthy backfield since he got to Houston. Green has never been available for more than half a season. We always had to rely on guys like Ron Dayne. He's probably basing it off the Denver offense, but I will also remind you that that offense was wonderful at spitting out 1000+ yard rushers.

 

[TheFanatic]

Take the 13 carries a game he averaged in the RBBC Kubiak runs with healthy options,

Do we have statistical proof of this statement? I honestly don't know...

He's basing his stats on a guy who isnt on the team anymore. A healthy Green is way more talented than a healthy Brown.

I'm just trying to remember when he used a RBBC when he had a healthy RB. Maybe he did and I'm missing it. Green was there in the twilight of his career. Was he ever truly healthy and thus toting the rock exclusively? Which begs the question. With a guy that proved he could shoulder the load last year and a seemingly healthy Chris Brown on the roster, will Kubiak go with a RBBC? HK obviously thinks so, which to me, makes me think that will not happen. Didn't read somewhere that Kubiak wanted to get the ball into the hands of Slaton more this year? Could be coach speak. But I'll take it over HK speak...

Gary has never had a healthy backfield since he got to Houston. Green has never been available for more than half a season. We always had to rely on guys like Ron Dayne. He's probably basing it off the Denver offense, but I will also remind you that that offense was wonderful at spitting out 1000+ yard rushers.

Oh, so based on HK's logic, if I always drove a beater that could only do say 70 miles an hour tops, if I suddenly found myself in a ferrari I would still only do 70 miles an hour. Like I alluded to before. I tend to take whatever HK predicts and bet on the opposite. He pretty much guaranteed Jacobs a good year last year with his nay saying.

 

[Balance]

People talk about Slaton wearing down because he took 70% of the carries in that offense, but why then does no one mention Chris Johnson?? This guy is taller and skinnier than Slaton is. Now you say Johnson only had to carry 50% of his teams work load in comparison to Slatons 70%.... but they still had the SAME number of carries at the end of the year. What people miss is that a team like Tenn runs the ball alot more than Hou so getting 70% of the carries on Hou isnt like getting 70% of the carries on a run heavy team. You shouldnt look at the % of carries but the actual amount of carries. Cause E.James couldve taken 100% of Ari carries and still ran for half of what Johnson ran for with only taking half the carries on his team. So if Slaton will wear down or not be able to handle the 260 carries per, then you have to have the same arguement for Johnson running 250 carries per.

If I recall Slaton did actually wear down mid-season last year and was all but held out of a game due to "dead legs."I remember Kubiak using those words.. only because I got burned that week by starting him. Week 9 I think?

 

[jsharlan]

People talk about Slaton wearing down because he took 70% of the carries in that offense, but why then does no one mention Chris Johnson?? This guy is taller and skinnier than Slaton is. Now you say Johnson only had to carry 50% of his teams work load in comparison to Slatons 70%.... but they still had the SAME number of carries at the end of the year. What people miss is that a team like Tenn runs the ball alot more than Hou so getting 70% of the carries on Hou isnt like getting 70% of the carries on a run heavy team. You shouldnt look at the % of carries but the actual amount of carries. Cause E.James couldve taken 100% of Ari carries and still ran for half of what Johnson ran for with only taking half the carries on his team. So if Slaton will wear down or not be able to handle the 260 carries per, then you have to have the same arguement for Johnson running 250 carries per.

If I recall Slaton did actually wear down mid-season last year and was all but held out of a game due to "dead legs."I remember Kubiak using those words.. only because I got burned that week by starting him. Week 9 I think?

I think it was more a case of they were playing the Ravens who were beating the crap out of the run game and we had to play from behind.Edit: ya there was a total of 15 rushing attempts from all the running backs combined that game.

 

[H.K.]

Take the 13 carries a game he averaged in the RBBC Kubiak runs with healthy options,

Do we have statistical proof of this statement? I honestly don't know...

Read my initial post in this thread, it's all there. Please feel free to double check and verify the stats by looking at the game logs, then report back.

 

[jsharlan]

as I said before, youre basing a comparison on a running back who isnt there anymore.

 

[StevePatterson]

I had Slaton on my Fantasy team last season had he put up good numbers all season long from what I can remember. There was this thought that he might not hold up, but that was not the case.

 

[Bert]

Slaton is heavily involved in the passing game, that prediction of 27 catches is very low.

From post #30:In my projection I should have expanded on the fact that Slaton only averaged 14 carries and 1.3 receptions in the eight games Green played. Furthermore, Slaton averaged only 13 carries in the five out of eight games Green did not leave early due to injury.

16 x 1.3 = 20.8

If anything, 27 receptions is a very generous projection.

Given your dependence on last year’s stats I assume you are ranking DeAngelo Williams as the number 1 fantasy back for 2009?

My analysis irrefutably demonstrates that Kubiak will employ a full fledged RBBC when he has healthy options

No Sir it does not. Maybe Kubiak used Green more because he was a vet with a long record of success in this league? You didn't mention that in your analysis. Maybe he used Green more because Slaton was an untested rookie and he wasn't completely sure how he would handle the increased work load? Didn't see that mentioned as a reason why Green was used so much. Maybe he used Green because of the amount of money he was making?What you demonstrated was Kubiak did, last year, use a RBBC when Green was health. You demonstrated absolutely nothing about what he will do this year with the backs on the roster. You have simply assumed that because he did something last year he will do the same this year. That is what my DeAngelo comment was referring to. This is a faulty assumption given the changes in the variables.

 

[H.K.]

No Sir it does not. Maybe Kubiak used Green more because he was a vet with a long record of success in this league? You didn't mention that in your analysis. Maybe he used Green more because Slaton was an untested rookie and he wasn't completely sure how he would handle the increased work load? Didn't see that mentioned as a reason why Green was used so much. Maybe he used Green because of the amount of money he was making?

What you demonstrated was Kubiak did, last year, use a RBBC when Green was health. You demonstrated absolutely nothing about what he will do this year with the backs on the roster. You have simply assumed that because he did something last year he will do the same this year. That is what my DeAngelo comment was referring to. This is a faulty assumption given the changes in the variables.

*sigh*Research. It pays:

link

Ahman Green Restuctures His Contract, Continues His NFL Career

Posted Aug 28th 2008 11:30AM by Stephanie Stradley

Filed Under: Texans, AFC South, NFL Injuries

By coaches' accounts, Ahman Green had a great camp. Then he hurt his groin during his first touch of his first preseason game and hasn't played since. He says he will be ready to go by the Pittsburgh game, and by restructuring his contract to one incentivized for game play, he is putting his money where his mouth is. According to the Houston Chronicle's John McClain:

Green's base salary will be 1.8 million, which frees up 2 million in salary-cap dollars.

To get Green to agree to redo his deal, the Texans are giving him $200,000 for every game in which he's active this season, starting with the second game of the year. That means Green can make three million if he stays healthy for every game.

In other words, Green was at risk of getting cut and being forced to retire. Green played on and off last season with a knee bone bruise and was eventually put on IR. The Texans didn't want to put him on the roster to risk more of the same. So they shifted some of his salary base he would receive if he just limped onto the 53 man roster, to paying him for individual games if he is activated for them.

The running backs who look to be on the 53 man roster for sure are Ahman Green, Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor. Taylor has also been taking reps as backup fullback. Free agent acquisition Chris Brown has been struggling with various ailments throughout camp and preseason, (non-surprise!), so the Texans are probably relieved that they could restructure Green's contract to keep an experienced RB on the roster ... at least for the time being.

Green, Taylor, Brown and Slaton to start the year. Slaton is the only one who stayed healthy. Even Moats, who became Slaton's backup mid-year, got hurt, too:

November 17, 2008, 01:25

Texans :: RB, PR/KR

Texans RB/KR Moats Injures Left Ankle In Week 10 Game

Nick Schenck, HoustonTexans.com - [Full Article]

Houston Texans running back and kick returner Ryan Moats injured his left ankle in the first half of the team's Week 11 game. He did not return. No additional information is currently available.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

October 26, 2008, 10:32

Texans :: RB

Texans Waive RB Walker, Activate RB Moats From Practice Squad

John McClain, Houston Chronicle - [Full Article]

The Houston Texans placed running back Darius Walker on waivers Saturday and activated running back Ryan Moats from the practice squad.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

October 8, 2008, 11:21

Texans :: RB

Texans Sign RB Moats To Practice Squad

Slaton played well, but he also was the only option they had. No team is going to give their RB 85% of the touches unless they have no other choice. That's why Slaton's numbers were so skewed in the second half after Green went down for the year. Like I have said in other threads, if the Texans have RB's the same caliber as Green was last year to complement Slaton, and they are going to use them if they are available. Look at last season as proof:

In weeks 3, 4, and 9 - all weeks where Green was hurt and did not play - Slaton had 124, 116, and 118 yards from scrimmage, respectively, where he averaged 21 touches a game.

But what happened when Green returned from injury? In Week 5, Slaton started but only had 58% of the touches (16 rush & 1 rec)....Again, when Green returned in Week 10, Slaton only had 6 touches.

Most importantly with regards to workload, consider that Slaton had 5 games of 20+ carries. The first was week 12, when Ahman Green and he split carries until Green got hurt and couldn't finish the game....his other four 20+ carry games were weeks 13,14, 15, & 17, all games when Green was inactive, as were Brown, Taylor, et al.

As already posted in this thread, Kubiak has said he will use multiple RB's this coming season, and it seems pretty consistent with how he operated last year when he had multiple options.

 

[coolnerd]

Just for kicks, Gary Kubiak weights in on how he plans to use Slaton in 2009.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6342794.html

“If we can add another one, either somebody whose style is close to Steve’s or someone a little different, that would make us better,” Kubiak said. “The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

“We’d love to draft a back who turns out to be as good as Steve. And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season.

“In a perfect game, maybe you could say (Slaton) gets 22 touches and the other gets 10 or 12. When you go after him, you have to pick somebody you think is capable of starting a few games.

“For Steve to hold up for 15 games was amazing. Hopefully, that’ll continue, but you have to be prepared just in case.”

 

[Bert]

No Sir it does not. Maybe Kubiak used Green more because he was a vet with a long record of success in this league? You didn't mention that in your analysis. Maybe he used Green more because Slaton was an untested rookie and he wasn't completely sure how he would handle the increased work load? Didn't see that mentioned as a reason why Green was used so much. Maybe he used Green because of the amount of money he was making?

What you demonstrated was Kubiak did, last year, use a RBBC when Green was health. You demonstrated absolutely nothing about what he will do this year with the backs on the roster. You have simply assumed that because he did something last year he will do the same this year. That is what my DeAngelo comment was referring to. This is a faulty assumption given the changes in the variables.

*sigh*Research. It pays:

link

Ahman Green Restuctures His Contract, Continues His NFL Career

Posted Aug 28th 2008 11:30AM by Stephanie Stradley

Filed Under: Texans, AFC South, NFL Injuries

By coaches' accounts, Ahman Green had a great camp. Then he hurt his groin during his first touch of his first preseason game and hasn't played since. He says he will be ready to go by the Pittsburgh game, and by restructuring his contract to one incentivized for game play, he is putting his money where his mouth is. According to the Houston Chronicle's John McClain:

Green's base salary will be 1.8 million, which frees up 2 million in salary-cap dollars.

To get Green to agree to redo his deal, the Texans are giving him $200,000 for every game in which he's active this season, starting with the second game of the year. That means Green can make three million if he stays healthy for every game.

In other words, Green was at risk of getting cut and being forced to retire. Green played on and off last season with a knee bone bruise and was eventually put on IR. The Texans didn't want to put him on the roster to risk more of the same. So they shifted some of his salary base he would receive if he just limped onto the 53 man roster, to paying him for individual games if he is activated for them.

The running backs who look to be on the 53 man roster for sure are Ahman Green, Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor. Taylor has also been taking reps as backup fullback. Free agent acquisition Chris Brown has been struggling with various ailments throughout camp and preseason, (non-surprise!), so the Texans are probably relieved that they could restructure Green's contract to keep an experienced RB on the roster ... at least for the time being.

Green, Taylor, Brown and Slaton to start the year. Slaton is the only one who stayed healthy. Even Moats, who became Slaton's backup mid-year, got hurt, too:

November 17, 2008, 01:25

Texans :: RB, PR/KR

Texans RB/KR Moats Injures Left Ankle In Week 10 Game

Nick Schenck, HoustonTexans.com - [Full Article]

Houston Texans running back and kick returner Ryan Moats injured his left ankle in the first half of the team's Week 11 game. He did not return. No additional information is currently available.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

October 26, 2008, 10:32

Texans :: RB

Texans Waive RB Walker, Activate RB Moats From Practice Squad

John McClain, Houston Chronicle - [Full Article]

The Houston Texans placed running back Darius Walker on waivers Saturday and activated running back Ryan Moats from the practice squad.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

October 8, 2008, 11:21

Texans :: RB

Texans Sign RB Moats To Practice Squad

Slaton played well, but he also was the only option they had. No team is going to give their RB 85% of the touches unless they have no other choice. That's why Slaton's numbers were so skewed in the second half after Green went down for the year. Like I have said in other threads, if the Texans have RB's the same caliber as Green was last year to complement Slaton, and they are going to use them if they are available. Look at last season as proof:

In weeks 3, 4, and 9 - all weeks where Green was hurt and did not play - Slaton had 124, 116, and 118 yards from scrimmage, respectively, where he averaged 21 touches a game.

But what happened when Green returned from injury? In Week 5, Slaton started but only had 58% of the touches (16 rush & 1 rec)....Again, when Green returned in Week 10, Slaton only had 6 touches.

Most importantly with regards to workload, consider that Slaton had 5 games of 20+ carries. The first was week 12, when Ahman Green and he split carries until Green got hurt and couldn't finish the game....his other four 20+ carry games were weeks 13,14, 15, & 17, all games when Green was inactive, as were Brown, Taylor, et al.

As already posted in this thread, Kubiak has said he will use multiple RB's this coming season, and it seems pretty consistent with how he operated last year when he had multiple options.

Research pays but not when you make faulty assumptions and draw asinine conclusions.We will pull the thread up at the half way mark and see where we are. I believe his yardage numbers will be about the same as last year and his TDs slightly less. But I will remember your 46 yards per game rushing and 12 per game receiving prediction.

 

[H.K.]

Just for kicks, Gary Kubiak weights in on how he plans to use Slaton in 2009.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6342794.html

“If we can add another one, either somebody whose style is close to Steve’s or someone a little different, that would make us better,” Kubiak said. “The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

“We’d love to draft a back who turns out to be as good as Steve. And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season.

“In a perfect game, maybe you could say (Slaton) gets 22 touches and the other gets 10 or 12. When you go after him, you have to pick somebody you think is capable of starting a few games.

“For Steve to hold up for 15 games was amazing. Hopefully, that’ll continue, but you have to be prepared just in case.”

Kubiak says three critical things in that article:

1) Slaton is not and will not be the goal line RB

2) It will be RBBC

3) He has major concerns about Slaton's durability, hence the reasons for points #1 and #2

 

[Kowskull]

Just for kicks, Gary Kubiak weights in on how he plans to use Slaton in 2009.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6342794.html

“If we can add another one, either somebody whose style is close to Steve’s or someone a little different, that would make us better,” Kubiak said. “The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

“We’d love to draft a back who turns out to be as good as Steve. And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season.

“In a perfect game, maybe you could say (Slaton) gets 22 touches and the other gets 10 or 12. When you go after him, you have to pick somebody you think is capable of starting a few games.

“For Steve to hold up for 15 games was amazing. Hopefully, that’ll continue, but you have to be prepared just in case.”

Kubiak says three critical things in that article:

1) Slaton is not and will not be the goal line RB

2) It will be RBBC

3) He has major concerns about Slaton's durability, hence the reasons for points #1 and #2

LMAO @ HK he does not say that. He says IF we can add another one and we would love to DRAFT a guy as good and so would the other 31 teams lol Just your everyday coach speak...... HK you crack me up

 

[Pipes]

Just for kicks, Gary Kubiak weights in on how he plans to use Slaton in 2009.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6342794.html

“If we can add another one, either somebody whose style is close to Steve’s or someone a little different, that would make us better,” Kubiak said. “The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

“We’d love to draft a back who turns out to be as good as Steve. And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season.

“In a perfect game, maybe you could say (Slaton) gets 22 touches and the other gets 10 or 12. When you go after him, you have to pick somebody you think is capable of starting a few games.

“For Steve to hold up for 15 games was amazing. Hopefully, that’ll continue, but you have to be prepared just in case.”

Kubiak says three critical things in that article:

1) Slaton is not and will not be the goal line RB

2) It will be RBBC

3) He has major concerns about Slaton's durability, hence the reasons for points #1 and #2

So if Slaton gets 22 touches per game that equates to 352 touches per season. Last year he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per Rec and roughly 84% of his touches were rushes. So using last years averages with the number of touches his coach says he's going to get here's his projected 2009 numbers....Rush - 295 x 4.8 = 1,416 yards

Rec - 57 x 7.5 = 427 yards

That's over 1800 total yards so how does RBBC hurt Slaton's number's again?

 

[jsharlan]

Talk about a bunch of loose assumptions. How many times do we have to remind you that there is no one backing up Slaton this year anywhere close to Green's talent level? Especially in the passing game. The backups they have now are good for spelling Slaton during games, none of them are good enough to split carries evenly in a RBBC. Just because Kubiak says he would like to do that in an ideal situation in the future does not mean hes in that ideal situation this year and can do it. I'll be in a state of shock if Chris Brown even makes it through week 3 healthy with his track record.

 

[H.K.]

Just for kicks, Gary Kubiak weights in on how he plans to use Slaton in 2009.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6342794.html

“If we can add another one, either somebody whose style is close to Steve’s or someone a little different, that would make us better,” Kubiak said. “The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

“We’d love to draft a back who turns out to be as good as Steve. And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season.

“In a perfect game, maybe you could say (Slaton) gets 22 touches and the other gets 10 or 12. When you go after him, you have to pick somebody you think is capable of starting a few games.

“For Steve to hold up for 15 games was amazing. Hopefully, that’ll continue, but you have to be prepared just in case.”

Kubiak says three critical things in that article:

1) Slaton is not and will not be the goal line RB

2) It will be RBBC

3) He has major concerns about Slaton's durability, hence the reasons for points #1 and #2

So if Slaton gets 22 touches per game that equates to 352 touches per season. Last year he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per Rec and roughly 84% of his touches were rushes. So using last years averages with the number of touches his coach says he's going to get here's his projected 2009 numbers....Rush - 295 x 4.8 = 1,416 yards

Rec - 57 x 7.5 = 427 yards

That's over 1800 total yards so how does RBBC hurt Slaton's number's again?

RBBC hurts Slaton when his projection is based on how Kubiak has used him in real life. If you want to ignore that data and base a projection solely off Kubiak's hypothetical phrase "In a perfect game, maybe" as a benchmark, then that's your call.

 

[jsharlan]

hey if you want to ignore the lack of talent and health behind Slaton, thats your problem as well.

 

[fourd]

Just for kicks, Gary Kubiak weights in on how he plans to use Slaton in 2009.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6342794.html

“If we can add another one, either somebody whose style is close to Steve’s or someone a little different, that would make us better,” Kubiak said. “The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

“We’d love to draft a back who turns out to be as good as Steve. And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season.

“In a perfect game, maybe you could say (Slaton) gets 22 touches and the other gets 10 or 12. When you go after him, you have to pick somebody you think is capable of starting a few games.

“For Steve to hold up for 15 games was amazing. Hopefully, that’ll continue, but you have to be prepared just in case.”

Kubiak says three critical things in that article:

1) Slaton is not and will not be the goal line RB

2) It will be RBBC

3) He has major concerns about Slaton's durability, hence the reasons for points #1 and #2

So if Slaton gets 22 touches per game that equates to 352 touches per season. Last year he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per Rec and roughly 84% of his touches were rushes. So using last years averages with the number of touches his coach says he's going to get here's his projected 2009 numbers....Rush - 295 x 4.8 = 1,416 yards

Rec - 57 x 7.5 = 427 yards

That's over 1800 total yards so how does RBBC hurt Slaton's number's again?

RBBC hurts Slaton when his projection is based on how Kubiak has used him in real life. If you want to ignore that data and base a projection solely off Kubiak's hypothetical phrase "In a perfect game, maybe" as a benchmark, then that's your call.

So Chris Brown would be a perfect complement? The closest thing they have to perfect is Slaton. Kubiak can be concerned about Slaton's durability but he has a far less durable back set to take the goalline duties and who else to take touches?

 

[H.K.]

Talk about a bunch of loose assumptions. How many times do we have to remind you that there is no one backing up Slaton this year anywhere close to Green's talent level? Especially in the passing game. The backups they have now are good for spelling Slaton during games, none of them are good enough to split carries evenly in a RBBC. Just because Kubiak says he would like to do that in an ideal situation in the future does not mean hes in that ideal situation this year and can do it. I'll be in a state of shock if Chris Brown even makes it through week 3 healthy with his track record.

link

Running back Chris Brown continues to impress in practice. At 6-3, 234, he's got size and speed and experience in the Texans' running game. He breaks a lot of touchdown runs in practice. He's being physical, too. I know he was hurt every year in Tennessee and that he missed all of last season with the Texans, but Brown looks so good right now it's hard not to get fired up about him.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

hey if you want to ignore the lack of talent and health behind Slaton, thats your problem as well.

Kubiak used to roll with scrubs like Mike Bell. What makes you think he will change his style now? Do you think Shanahan was the guy who encouraged RBBC, and that Kubiak was just on board because he's a good soldier? I have no idea, but it strikes me as a reasonable concept that Kubiak has a pre-disposition to use RBBC more than other coaches because that's how he was trained.

 

[jsharlan]

Talk about a bunch of loose assumptions. How many times do we have to remind you that there is no one backing up Slaton this year anywhere close to Green's talent level? Especially in the passing game. The backups they have now are good for spelling Slaton during games, none of them are good enough to split carries evenly in a RBBC. Just because Kubiak says he would like to do that in an ideal situation in the future does not mean hes in that ideal situation this year and can do it. I'll be in a state of shock if Chris Brown even makes it through week 3 healthy with his track record.

link

Running back Chris Brown continues to impress in practice. At 6-3, 234, he's got size and speed and experience in the Texans' running game. He breaks a lot of touchdown runs in practice. He's being physical, too. I know he was hurt every year in Tennessee and that he missed all of last season with the Texans, but Brown looks so good right now it's hard not to get fired up about him.

lol as a guy relying on stats to make predictions, perhaps you should check out Brown's. Getting praise in training camp does not equal 16 games of production. Hint: He's never played 16 games in his career and has never had anywhere close to the production Green had. As a Texans fan I hope with all my heart he does well and outplays his critics, but if you are doing predictions based on his stats, health record, and the type of runner he is in this offense, its not looking pretty.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

There are a lot of myths surrounding Slaton’s performance last season and why he had the workload he received in 2008, so we’ll dispel them one at a time.

Myth #1:

Slaton will be the full time starter in 2009, so his workload will increase.

Fact:

Slaton started every game except for Week 1. In fact, he was designated the starter after week 3 (remember that week 2 was a bye week for Houston due to game cancellation):

Texans Notes: Slaton earns starting running back job

By JOHN McCLAIN

Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle

Sept. 23, 2008, 1:27PM

Coach Gary Kubiak said rookie running back Steve Slaton earned the full-time starting job with his 116-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Titans that included a 50-yard run Sunday.

Myth # 2Slaton is in a situation where he is the primary RB

Fact:

Slaton was the primary RB only when the Texans had nobody else to share the load.

For 2008, Slaton had 71% of all RB touches in Houston.

Look at the final numbers on the year:

382 HOU RB rushes

268 Slaton rushes

70% opps for Slaton

78 HOU RB targets

59 Slaton targets

76% opps to Slaton

64 HOU RB Receptions

50 Slaton recepts

78% opps to Slaton

14 HOU RB TD's

10 Slaton TD's

71% TD's to Slaton

When we take a closer look at the distribution of touches just between Ahman Green and Slaton in games when both played, it paints a more accurate picture:

Carries

Slaton carries 115

Green carries 74

61% for Slaton

Targets

13 Targets for Slaton

14 Targets for Green

48% for Slaton

Receptions

12 Recepts for Slaton

11 Recepts for Green

52% for Slaton

TD’s

5 TD's for Slaton

3 TD's for Green

63% for Slaton

When Ahman Green played, Slaton had 58% of RB touches in those games.

When Green did not play, Slaton had 85% of all RB touches.

When Ahman Green played Slaton averaged 12.9 PPG in PPR

When Ahman Green did not play, Slaton averaged 21.9 in PPR

Just like they attempted to do last season, Houston will use at least two backs next year, the only reason Slaton got as much work this season was circumstances and not coaches decision. For those expecting a similar workload, understand that the RB corps is significantly better in Houston than it was last year and in 2008 Green, Brown, and Taylor all were out of the picture due to injury. Even WW addition Moats was hurt last year. With two very nice rookie additions of Foster and Johnson, the Texans have very nicely upgraded the RB position. Simply put, the workload Slaton had in 2008 will not repeat in 2009.

Myth #3

Slaton will maintain or improve his TD production

Fact:

Part of Slaton’s reduced load in 2009 will come from lost GL carries. From the FBG Blogger:

March 12, 2009, 10:57

Texans :: RB

RB C.Brown Short Yardage Man, Assuming Health

Nick Scurfield, HoustonTexans.com

The Texans signed RB Chris Brown to a two-year deal last season, but Brown missed the '08 campaign with a back injury. Doctors have cleared him to resume all physical activities this offseason and Brown says he'll be able to participate in OTAs this spring. HC Gary Kubiak hopes to use him as the short yardage threat behind starter Steve Slaton. "He can provide a big back for us," Kubiak said. "Steve's a smaller guy. We need somebody who can do a little more pounding, red zone, short yardage, those types of things. That's easier said than done, but we have that guy here with him if he's healthy. So the key is whether or not he can stay healthy."

In conclusion, Slaton is a prime candidate for being over-valued in 2009. Assuming he stays healthy for 16 games:176 carries

736 yards

27 recepts

189 yards

5 total TD’s

Great stuff HK. Glad that this thread was bumped, I missed it the first couple of times. The other evidence I would add....even though it isn't quantitative.....is Gary Kubiak's history with Denver. I don't see a strong reason why Kubiak would renounce RBBC after spending years being trained by Shanahan.

 

[jsharlan]

hey if you want to ignore the lack of talent and health behind Slaton, thats your problem as well.

Kubiak used to roll with scrubs like Mike Bell. What makes you think he will change his style now? Do you think Shanahan was the guy who encouraged RBBC, and that Kubiak was just on board because he's a good soldier? I have no idea, but it strikes me as a reasonable concept that Kubiak has a pre-disposition to use RBBC more than other coaches because that's how he was trained.

he also produced plenty of 1000+ yard rushers with a fraction of the talent Slaton has in this 'RRBC' with reasonable health from them. Predicting Slaton to get 700 yards rushing and 27 catches with Chris Brown as your evidence for stealing production is a weak argument.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

hey if you want to ignore the lack of talent and health behind Slaton, thats your problem as well.

Kubiak used to roll with scrubs like Mike Bell. What makes you think he will change his style now? Do you think Shanahan was the guy who encouraged RBBC, and that Kubiak was just on board because he's a good soldier? I have no idea, but it strikes me as a reasonable concept that Kubiak has a pre-disposition to use RBBC more than other coaches because that's how he was trained.

he also produced plenty of 1000+ yard rushers with a fraction of the talent Slaton has in this 'RRBC' with reasonable health from them. Predicting Slaton to get 700 yards rushing and 27 catches with Chris Brown as your evidence for stealing production is a weak argument.

You aren't answering my question. And I've said absolutely nothing about Chris Brown. Just answer the question.

 

[jsharlan]

hey if you want to ignore the lack of talent and health behind Slaton, thats your problem as well.

Kubiak used to roll with scrubs like Mike Bell. What makes you think he will change his style now? Do you think Shanahan was the guy who encouraged RBBC, and that Kubiak was just on board because he's a good soldier? I have no idea, but it strikes me as a reasonable concept that Kubiak has a pre-disposition to use RBBC more than other coaches because that's how he was trained.

he also produced plenty of 1000+ yard rushers with a fraction of the talent Slaton has in this 'RRBC' with reasonable health from them. Predicting Slaton to get 700 yards rushing and 27 catches with Chris Brown as your evidence for stealing production is a weak argument.

You aren't answering my question. And I've said absolutely nothing about Chris Brown. Just answer the question.

Very well, lets check the history book shall we. Kubiak was with Denver from 1995-2005. There is there rushing leaders in those years:1995 - Terrell Davis 237/1117 Aaron Craver 73/3331996 - Terrell Davis 345/1538 Aaron Craver 59/2321997 - Terrell Davis 369/1750 John Elway 50/2181998 - Terrell Davis 392/2008 Derek Loville 53/1611999 - Olandis Gary 276/1159 Terrell Davis 67/2112000 - Mike Anderson 297/1487 Terrell Davis 78/2822001 - Mike Anderson 175/678 Terrell Davis 167/7012002 - Clinton Portis 273/1508 Mike Anderson 84/3862003 - Clinton Portis 290/1591 Q. Griffin 94/3452004 - Reuben Droughns 275/1240 Q. Griffin 85/3112005 - Mike Anderson 239/1014 Tatum Bell 173/921So in 10 years, they ran a RBBC a blazing ONE time. Where in this history does it show Kubiak would be inclined to split carries in a RBBC? If anything it shows when they have a stud back, they ride him. Anderson, Gary, and Droughns all had 1000+ yard seasons and I would consider them less talented than Slaton. Personal opinion of course. A 700 yard and 27 catch season in this system is a ridiculously low prediction for the feature back.

 

[H.K.]

lol as a guy relying on stats to make predictions, perhaps you should check out Brown's.

I have. Please keep reading.

Getting praise in training camp does not equal 16 games of production. Hint: He's never played 16 games in his career

True, but Brown has two seasons where he had over 240 touches, so he's certainly proved capable of taking a huge chunk in an RBBC role like he is in now.

and has never had anywhere close to the production Green had.

This discussion is not about comparing Green's career to Brown's. However, it is about comparing how Kubiak would use a 31 year old Ahman Green in 2008 to a 28 year old Chris Brown in 2009.Let's start by comparing their most recent four seasons in the NFL:

Green averaged only 3.8 yards per carry (487 for 1868 yds) from '05-'08

Brown averaged 4.3 yards per carry (587 for 2536 yds) from '04-'07 (dnp in '08)

(Brown also has a higher career YPR advantage of 9.0 to 7.6)

Kubiak used a full fledged RBBC with a lesser RB in Green when he was available in 2008, so based on how the world is today Brown is most certainly a younger and more productive RB than Green was when Kubiak employed RBBC last year.

As a Texans fan I hope with all my heart he does well and outplays his critics, but if you are doing predictions based on his stats, health record, and the type of runner he is in this offense, its not looking pretty.

Nope, not for Slaton.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Kubiak used a full fledged RBBC with a lesser RB in Green when he was available in 2008, so based on how the world is today Brown is most certainly a younger and more productive RB than Green was when Kubiak employed RBBC last year.

Talent will generally dictate the number of touches. And based on their bodies of work (including college) so far, Slaton is far and away the most talented RB on the Texans roster. In addition, I would argue that Kubiak never had a RB as talented as Slaton so he was forced to go with a RBBC approach. IMO, Slaton represents one of teh best values in the first round, barring injury.

 

[H.K.]

Kubiak used a full fledged RBBC with a lesser RB in Green when he was available in 2008, so based on how the world is today Brown is most certainly a younger and more productive RB than Green was when Kubiak employed RBBC last year.

Talent will generally dictate the number of touches. And based on their bodies of work (including college) so far, Slaton is far and away the most talented RB on the Texans roster. In addition, I would argue that Kubiak never had a RB as talented as Slaton so he was forced to go with a RBBC approach.

This line of rationale belies what actually occurred last season.When Green was out, Slaton tore it up, then when Green came back, it was RBBC again. Therefore, the argument that Slaton was unproven goes out the window. Also, Slaton was outperforming Green when both played, so production wasn't much of a factor.So why did Slaton and Green split time last season? If Slaton was so much better than Green, and Kubiak doesn't run RBBC, then why did he run RBBC with Green and Slaton last year?Anyone?

 

[jsharlan]

lol as a guy relying on stats to make predictions, perhaps you should check out Brown's.

I have. Please keep reading.

Getting praise in training camp does not equal 16 games of production. Hint: He's never played 16 games in his career

True, but Brown has two seasons where he had over 240 touches, so he's certainly proved capable of taking a huge chunk in an RBBC role like he is in now.

and has never had anywhere close to the production Green had.

This discussion is not about comparing Green's career to Brown's. However, it is about comparing how Kubiak would use a 31 year old Ahman Green in 2008 to a 28 year old Chris Brown in 2009.Let's start by comparing their most recent four seasons in the NFL:

Green averaged only 3.8 yards per carry (487 for 1868 yds) from '05-'08

Brown averaged 4.3 yards per carry (587 for 2536 yds) from '04-'07 (dnp in '08)

(Brown also has a higher career YPR advantage of 9.0 to 7.6)

Kubiak used a full fledged RBBC with a lesser RB in Green when he was available in 2008, so based on how the world is today Brown is most certainly a younger and more productive RB than Green was when Kubiak employed RBBC last year.

As a Texans fan I hope with all my heart he does well and outplays his critics, but if you are doing predictions based on his stats, health record, and the type of runner he is in this offense, its not looking pretty.

Nope, not for Slaton.

It is about comparing Green to Brown, because you are using piece examples of last season to base what will happen this season with a different running back staff. Taking a piece ypc stat from a selective time frame does not prove Brown to be as talented as Green. You arent stating that Brown was barely involved in the passing game with 25 catches being his all time high, while Green caught over 40 balls for 6 years. You want to act like Green is worse in ypc, but in 9 years he only averaged less than 4 twice. Brown has only been above 4 twice. Green has 6 1000+ yard seasons under his belt, Brown has 1. Yes Brown is nearly 4 years younger than Green, but nothing in his history has ever shown him to be a better running back than Green at any point in his career.You also are leaving out intangibles when claiming Kubiak will run a RBBC based on last year. Things like the fact Slaton was a rookie, never taken a heavy load at the NFL level, and Green came back in the middle of the season when Slaton was hitting a rookie wall and could use the spelling. Or the fact that based on Green's injury history with the Texans, getting as much out of him while you could was probably a sound idea. If you listened to any of the post game interviews last season, Kubiak actually mentioned several times about Slaton not being used to the work load, Green knowing the system for longer, and being a bigger back, and thats why he used him. Also you are not mentioning that Green went in as the feature back last year, its pretty normal when your 1st string back comes back from injury, you try to work him in his carries. Its not like Green was some unknown guy down the depth chart stealing Slaton's carries.

Slaton now has a full season under his belt, bulked up to 215 in the offseason, came into camp as the feature back, has a better grasp of the system(which has been stated in interviews with both Slaton and Kubiak), and has lesser talent injury prone backs on the depth chart.

You also just assume Kubiak is looking for a RBBC when his history as a coach paints a different story. RBBC is the way of the future for most teams, but the Texans dont have the personnel yet.

 

[Pipes]

Just for kicks, Gary Kubiak weights in on how he plans to use Slaton in 2009.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6342794.html

“If we can add another one, either somebody whose style is close to Steve’s or someone a little different, that would make us better,” Kubiak said. “The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

“We’d love to draft a back who turns out to be as good as Steve. And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season.

“In a perfect game, maybe you could say (Slaton) gets 22 touches and the other gets 10 or 12. When you go after him, you have to pick somebody you think is capable of starting a few games.

“For Steve to hold up for 15 games was amazing. Hopefully, that’ll continue, but you have to be prepared just in case.”

Kubiak says three critical things in that article:

1) Slaton is not and will not be the goal line RB

2) It will be RBBC

3) He has major concerns about Slaton's durability, hence the reasons for points #1 and #2

So if Slaton gets 22 touches per game that equates to 352 touches per season. Last year he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per Rec and roughly 84% of his touches were rushes. So using last years averages with the number of touches his coach says he's going to get here's his projected 2009 numbers....Rush - 295 x 4.8 = 1,416 yards

Rec - 57 x 7.5 = 427 yards

That's over 1800 total yards so how does RBBC hurt Slaton's number's again?

RBBC hurts Slaton when his projection is based on how Kubiak has used him in real life. If you want to ignore that data and base a projection solely off Kubiak's hypothetical phrase "In a perfect game, maybe" as a benchmark, then that's your call.

You're also using Kubiak's hypothetical phrase by claiming in point #2 that Kubiak says it's going to be a RBBC when in fact he is saying he'd like another RB to step up and spell Slaton. I don't disagree that Brown is going to take some carries from Slaton and perhaps even the goaline but Slaton is such an explosive player he will put up excellent numbers with his 18-22 touches he'll get per game.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

hey if you want to ignore the lack of talent and health behind Slaton, thats your problem as well.

Kubiak used to roll with scrubs like Mike Bell. What makes you think he will change his style now? Do you think Shanahan was the guy who encouraged RBBC, and that Kubiak was just on board because he's a good soldier? I have no idea, but it strikes me as a reasonable concept that Kubiak has a pre-disposition to use RBBC more than other coaches because that's how he was trained.

he also produced plenty of 1000+ yard rushers with a fraction of the talent Slaton has in this 'RRBC' with reasonable health from them. Predicting Slaton to get 700 yards rushing and 27 catches with Chris Brown as your evidence for stealing production is a weak argument.

You aren't answering my question. And I've said absolutely nothing about Chris Brown. Just answer the question.

Very well, lets check the history book shall we. Kubiak was with Denver from 1995-2005. There is there rushing leaders in those years:1995 - Terrell Davis 237/1117 Aaron Craver 73/3331996 - Terrell Davis 345/1538 Aaron Craver 59/2321997 - Terrell Davis 369/1750 John Elway 50/2181998 - Terrell Davis 392/2008 Derek Loville 53/1611999 - Olandis Gary 276/1159 Terrell Davis 67/2112000 - Mike Anderson 297/1487 Terrell Davis 78/2822001 - Mike Anderson 175/678 Terrell Davis 167/7012002 - Clinton Portis 273/1508 Mike Anderson 84/3862003 - Clinton Portis 290/1591 Q. Griffin 94/3452004 - Reuben Droughns 275/1240 Q. Griffin 85/3112005 - Mike Anderson 239/1014 Tatum Bell 173/921So in 10 years, they ran a RBBC a blazing ONE time. Where in this history does it show Kubiak would be inclined to split carries in a RBBC? If anything it shows when they have a stud back, they ride him. Anderson, Gary, and Droughns all had 1000+ yard seasons and I would consider them less talented than Slaton. Personal opinion of course. A 700 yard and 27 catch season in this system is a ridiculously low prediction for the feature back.

Thanks, this is a helpful post and is exactly what I was looking for. Great answer. [disclosure: I really had no idea that Kubiak was only OC in Denver til 2005 - thought he was there til 2007.]

 

[H.K.]

Yes Brown is nearly 4 years younger than Green, but nothing in his history has ever shown him to be a better running back than Green at any point in his career.

Brown today is better than Green today. That is why he is still in the league as the Texans RB and Green isn't.

Also you are not mentioning that Green went in as the feature back last year, its pretty normal when your 1st string back comes back from injury, you try to work him in his carries. Its not like Green was some unknown guy down the depth chart stealing Slaton's carries.

Is it normal for a team to force its feature back restructure and take a pay cut to avoid being cut? Stop painting the 2008 Green to be on the same level as 2003 Green. He was a broken down 31 year old RB way past his prime.

Slaton now has a full season under his belt, bulked up to 215 in the offseason, came into camp as the feature back, has a better grasp of the system(which has been stated in interviews with both Slaton and Kubiak), and has lesser talent injury prone backs on the depth chart.

I have no problem with dissenting opinions and this was your best post in this thread so far, but it doesn't do the thread much good when people don't have stats/articles/coaches quotes to verify their position. If you have an opinion, it would be better accepted if you could back it up with something tangible.

You also just assume Kubiak is looking for a RBBC when his history as a coach paints a different story. RBBC is the way of the future for most teams, but the Texans dont have the personnel yet.

They have far better and far healthier personnel for an RBBC this year than they did last year. That's been my whole point.

 

[gump]

RBBC hurts Slaton when his projection is based on how Kubiak has used him in real life. If you want to ignore that data and base a projection solely off Kubiak's hypothetical phrase "In a perfect game, maybe" as a benchmark, then that's your call.

To me it's pretty clear that the 22 carry 'in a perfect game' quote meant Kubiak wants to see a CEILING of 22 carries 'in a perfect game'...not that Kubiak would hope to find 22 carries for SS 'in a perfect game'.

 

[H.K.]

You're also using Kubiak's hypothetical phrase by claiming in point #2 that Kubiak says it's going to be a RBBC when in fact he is saying he'd like another RB to step up and spell Slaton. I don't disagree that Brown is going to take some carries from Slaton and perhaps even the goaline but Slaton is such an explosive player he will put up excellent numbers with his 18-22 touches he'll get per game.

Let's shift away from a coaches' hypothetical to what he does in reality. Eight games of data with a washed up 31 year old alternative RB in RBBC:Slaton 15.8 touches per gameGreen 10.5 touches per game.Those numbers are inflated in Slaton's favor because Green left a few of them early due to injury, as well. Also, Slaton started all but one of those games as the #1 RB. Again, Slaton had 13 carries a game when Green was there for the finish.I'll take a Kubiak's real life actions over his hypothetical words.

 

[unckeyherb]

hey if you want to ignore the lack of talent and health behind Slaton, thats your problem as well.

Kubiak used to roll with scrubs like Mike Bell. What makes you think he will change his style now? Do you think Shanahan was the guy who encouraged RBBC, and that Kubiak was just on board because he's a good soldier? I have no idea, but it strikes me as a reasonable concept that Kubiak has a pre-disposition to use RBBC more than other coaches because that's how he was trained.

he also produced plenty of 1000+ yard rushers with a fraction of the talent Slaton has in this 'RRBC' with reasonable health from them. Predicting Slaton to get 700 yards rushing and 27 catches with Chris Brown as your evidence for stealing production is a weak argument.

You aren't answering my question. And I've said absolutely nothing about Chris Brown. Just answer the question.

Very well, lets check the history book shall we. Kubiak was with Denver from 1995-2005. There is there rushing leaders in those years:1995 - Terrell Davis 237/1117 Aaron Craver 73/3331996 - Terrell Davis 345/1538 Aaron Craver 59/2321997 - Terrell Davis 369/1750 John Elway 50/2181998 - Terrell Davis 392/2008 Derek Loville 53/1611999 - Olandis Gary 276/1159 Terrell Davis 67/2112000 - Mike Anderson 297/1487 Terrell Davis 78/2822001 - Mike Anderson 175/678 Terrell Davis 167/7012002 - Clinton Portis 273/1508 Mike Anderson 84/3862003 - Clinton Portis 290/1591 Q. Griffin 94/3452004 - Reuben Droughns 275/1240 Q. Griffin 85/3112005 - Mike Anderson 239/1014 Tatum Bell 173/921So in 10 years, they ran a RBBC a blazing ONE time. Where in this history does it show Kubiak would be inclined to split carries in a RBBC? If anything it shows when they have a stud back, they ride him. Anderson, Gary, and Droughns all had 1000+ yard seasons and I would consider them less talented than Slaton. Personal opinion of course. A 700 yard and 27 catch season in this system is a ridiculously low prediction for the feature back.

This, IMO puts an end to the precedent of Kubiak running a RBBC. In fact the real Denver RBBC trends began when he left. I've seen no legitimate arguements that can convince me that Slaton shouldn't be a top 10 back this year. The only one that concerns me a bit is whether or not he will hold up. The only evidence I can base an opinion on is his one professional season, in which he did just fine.

 

[mozzy84]

265 for 1250

51 rec for 450

9 total td's

 

[TheFanatic]

Very well, lets check the history book shall we. Kubiak was with Denver from 1995-2005. There is there rushing leaders in those years:1995 - Terrell Davis 237/1117 Aaron Craver 73/3331996 - Terrell Davis 345/1538 Aaron Craver 59/2321997 - Terrell Davis 369/1750 John Elway 50/2181998 - Terrell Davis 392/2008 Derek Loville 53/1611999 - Olandis Gary 276/1159 Terrell Davis 67/2112000 - Mike Anderson 297/1487 Terrell Davis 78/2822001 - Mike Anderson 175/678 Terrell Davis 167/7012002 - Clinton Portis 273/1508 Mike Anderson 84/3862003 - Clinton Portis 290/1591 Q. Griffin 94/3452004 - Reuben Droughns 275/1240 Q. Griffin 85/3112005 - Mike Anderson 239/1014 Tatum Bell 173/921So in 10 years, they ran a RBBC a blazing ONE time. Where in this history does it show Kubiak would be inclined to split carries in a RBBC? If anything it shows when they have a stud back, they ride him. Anderson, Gary, and Droughns all had 1000+ yard seasons and I would consider them less talented than Slaton. Personal opinion of course. A 700 yard and 27 catch season in this system is a ridiculously low prediction for the feature back.

Does anyone else find it funny that HK has not addressed this post at all? He's made a few posts since this one. Jsharlan did a great job here showing that Kubiak has used a RBBC exactly 10% of his time in Denver which is what HK is basing much of his argument on. This pretty much just nullifies everything HK has said in this thread but despite this damning evidence to the contrary he will undoubtedly just ignore this and keep plowing ahead...In fact, if you look add in 2006 and 2007:2006 Ron Dayne 151/612 Wali Lundy 124/476 2007 Ron Dayne 194/773 Ahman Green 70/260 I won't list 2008 because there was pretty much no other choice but to go with Slaton alone although HK will argue that whenever Green was healthy he was used in conjunction with Slaton. Which sort of makes sense since he was their big FA signing of the year prior and he had all of 70 carries. In 12 years Kubiak has gone with RBBC twice. Not sure I can blame him when in 2006 he had Dayne, Lundy and Gado. But then in 2007 with an equally weak RB crew considering how gimpy Green was, between the top two RB's Dayne got 73% of the carries.

 

[TheFanatic]

You're also using Kubiak's hypothetical phrase by claiming in point #2 that Kubiak says it's going to be a RBBC when in fact he is saying he'd like another RB to step up and spell Slaton. I don't disagree that Brown is going to take some carries from Slaton and perhaps even the goaline but Slaton is such an explosive player he will put up excellent numbers with his 18-22 touches he'll get per game.

Let's shift away from a coaches' hypothetical to what he does in reality. Eight games of data with a washed up 31 year old alternative RB in RBBC:Slaton 15.8 touches per game

Green 10.5 touches per game.

Those numbers are inflated in Slaton's favor because Green left a few of them early due to injury, as well. Also, Slaton started all but one of those games as the #1 RB.

Again, Slaton had 13 carries a game when Green was there for the finish.

I'll take a Kubiak's real life actions over his hypothetical words.

If only you actually followed this advice you wouldn't have posted a single thing in this thread and gotten completely shredded...

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

You're also using Kubiak's hypothetical phrase by claiming in point #2 that Kubiak says it's going to be a RBBC when in fact he is saying he'd like another RB to step up and spell Slaton. I don't disagree that Brown is going to take some carries from Slaton and perhaps even the goaline but Slaton is such an explosive player he will put up excellent numbers with his 18-22 touches he'll get per game.

Let's shift away from a coaches' hypothetical to what he does in reality. Eight games of data with a washed up 31 year old alternative RB in RBBC:Slaton 15.8 touches per gameGreen 10.5 touches per game.Those numbers are inflated in Slaton's favor because Green left a few of them early due to injury, as well. Also, Slaton started all but one of those games as the #1 RB. Again, Slaton had 13 carries a game when Green was there for the finish.I'll take a Kubiak's real life actions over his hypothetical words.

You like to throw out a bunch of numbers, but from watching a lot of Texans games and looking at Slaton's game logs... this is what I saw.- The guy came in as a supposedly undersized 3rd round pick with minimal expectations for the 2008 season. Due to green's lack of health, he was thrust into a contributing role early and while splitting time with the other backs on the roster, he averaged the following through the first ten games of the season.14 Carries70 Yards Rushing5 YPC3 Receptions20 Yards Receiving 6 YPR7 Total TDs- As it became obvious he was the best playmaking RB on the roster, he was utilized more as the season closed out. And for the record, I don't disagree some of his expanded usage was a result of injuries to Green and others. During the last six games, he averaged the following.22 Carries97 Yards Rushing4.5 YPC3 Receptions30 Yards Receiving 10 YPR3 Total TDsSo let's break it down (not going to project TDs). If we use splits from the first 10 games, a full season would project out to:224 Carries1120 Yards Rushing48 Receptions320 Yards ReceivingThis, IMO would be a minimal utilization for a fully healthy Slaton in 2009.If you want to base a season on his final six games, we end up with.352 Carries1552 Yards Rushing48 Receptions480 Yards ReceivingNow, I'll be the first to say that there is no way Slaton would last through a season of 352 carries. Kubiak is correct when he says they need another back that can come in and share the load, thus keeping Slaton from averaging 22 rusher and 3 catches a game.It wouldn't surprise me though, if he was utilized somewhere in the middle of those two rates and ended up in the ball park of the following288 Carries (18 A Game)1325 Yards Rushing45 Receptions400 Yards ReceivingAdd in the fact that Houston appears to be a potent offense and 8-10 Total TDs should be reasonable.So, in the end if you want to throw out those predictions of yours and call them a gut feel, go ahead, but please save yourself the embarrassment of trying to justify them with distorted stats or blurbs from the newspaper.

 

[H.K.]

Jsharlan did a great job here showing that Kubiak has used a RBBC exactly 10% of his time in Denver which is what HK is basing much of his argument on. This pretty much just nullifies everything HK has said in this thread but despite this damning evidence to the contrary he will undoubtedly just ignore this and keep plowing ahead...In fact, if you look add in 2006 and 2007:2006 Ron Dayne 151/612 Wali Lundy 124/476 2007 Ron Dayne 194/773 Ahman Green 70/260 I won't list 2008 because there was pretty much no other choice but to go with Slaton alone although HK will argue that whenever Green was healthy he was used in conjunction with Slaton. Which sort of makes sense since he was their big FA signing of the year prior and he had all of 70 carries. In 12 years Kubiak has gone with RBBC twice. Not sure I can blame him when in 2006 he had Dayne, Lundy and Gado. But then in 2007 with an equally weak RB crew considering how gimpy Green was, between the top two RB's Dayne got 73% of the carries.

Kubiak worked for Shanahan in Denver. Since Kubiak has been in control in Houston, it has been RBBC every year. Next.