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Player Spotlight: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: T.J. Houshmandzadeh Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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I like Housh to slide back a little this year. not a ton but I see him as very little value for where he is being drafted vs a couple of years ago.

80 receptions, 960 yds, 8 TD

 
The guy has improved his numbers every year in the league thus far. Imagine if he did it again? Ok, he probably won't, but I don't get why he is not viewed as a stud. My perception may be off because I play ppr only, but I view him as a top 10 WR easily. There will be talk about CJ not playing and how that will hurt his numbers because he'll face double teams. News flash: he already faces double teams. His numbers actually didn't decrease until Chris Henry came back last year. Another news flash: Chris Henry is gone. Sure, Cinci drafted 2 rookie WRs, but they won't have much impact this year. He'll see a TON of targets from a great QB, and catch 100 balls again (note: he caught 50 balls in his "awful" 2nd half last year). At 12ypc, I see this:

100 rec, 1200 yards, 10 TD. (17.5 ppg in ppr)

 
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Housh was great in the 1st half of the season (62 rec, 674 yards, 10 touchdowns) and awful in the 2nd half (50, 469,2 with zero 100-yard games). Maybe that was the law of averages kicking in. He's a good player but not great. He still has Palmer though so he should put up good numbers.

I think that the Bengals will try to run the ball more with Rudi Johnson coming back and that'll cut into his numbers some too. If Chad Johnson for whatever reason isn't on the team I like him a lot less. Overall I think we've seen the best from Housh that we're going to see. I wouldn't expect him to play better and wouldn't be surprised to see him play worse.

 
Housh was great in the 1st half of the season (62 rec, 674 yards, 10 touchdowns) and awful in the 2nd half (50, 469,2 with zero 100-yard games). Maybe that was the law of averages kicking in. He's a good player but not great. He still has Palmer though so he should put up good numbers.
:thumbup: Good player with a very good QB tossing the rock. Probably not a good value play though this year. He'll go in the top 10 WRs, and probably finish 10-15th. I'd look more towards his 2006 numbers for the projection. 90/1080/9.
 
Housh was great in the 1st half of the season (62 rec, 674 yards, 10 touchdowns) and awful in the 2nd half (50, 469,2 with zero 100-yard games). Maybe that was the law of averages kicking in. He's a good player but not great. He still has Palmer though so he should put up good numbers.

I think that the Bengals will try to run the ball more with Rudi Johnson coming back and that'll cut into his numbers some too. If Chad Johnson for whatever reason isn't on the team I like him a lot less. Overall I think we've seen the best from Housh that we're going to see. I wouldn't expect him to play better and wouldn't be surprised to see him play worse.
He still had 50 catches in the 2nd half of the season - that's hardly awful. Double those 2nd half numbers and he's at 100 catches, just under 1000 yards, and 4 TDs. I think that's his floor and you work up from there, probably adding a couple of TDs and getting him back to his traditional ypc of around 12. I'm shocked to see people projecting 85 catches. I guess this means that I can get WR1 numbers from him when I get him as a WR2 once again ;)
 
The Bengals are going to pound it this year.85 - 1050 - 7
The Bengals have ranked 17th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in team passing yards since Palmer took over as starter. They've ranked 17th, 11th, 26th, and 24th in team rushing yards over that time. I'd be interested to hear what's changed to make you think that they will "pound it" this year.
 
The Bengals are going to pound it this year.85 - 1050 - 7
The Bengals have ranked 17th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in team passing yards since Palmer took over as starter. They've ranked 17th, 11th, 26th, and 24th in team rushing yards over that time. I'd be interested to hear what's changed to make you think that they will "pound it" this year.
There's been a lot of talk by both coaches and players in emphasizing the running game this year. I think this might be due to the fact their season w/ their best rushing ranking of the last 4 years is the year they made the playoffs. So I think they'll run more, but I don't necessarily think it'll hurt passing yards.
 
The Bengals are going to pound it this year.85 - 1050 - 7
The Bengals have ranked 17th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in team passing yards since Palmer took over as starter. They've ranked 17th, 11th, 26th, and 24th in team rushing yards over that time. I'd be interested to hear what's changed to make you think that they will "pound it" this year.
There's been a lot of talk by both coaches and players in emphasizing the running game this year. I think this might be due to the fact their season w/ their best rushing ranking of the last 4 years is the year they made the playoffs. So I think they'll run more, but I don't necessarily think it'll hurt passing yards.
I believe the O is going to look more like 05 than 07. I also think this defense is going to suprise some people. CJ shut up after he ran against Hall and Joseph last week.... the DBs are young but they're good and Zimmer's not messing around.
 
Houshy was a monster - you can't ignore that75/1100/13He is the go-to-guy in the red-zone.
What has changed to make you think that he's going to get THIRTY SEVEN less receptions than last year, or 15 less than the year before when he got 90 in only 14 games? I would assume that you are projecting an inury, but you've also increased his ypc by about 2, and have him for more TDs than he's ever gotten. Color me confused.
 
The Bengals are going to pound it this year.85 - 1050 - 7
The Bengals have ranked 17th, 5th, 6th, and 7th in team passing yards since Palmer took over as starter. They've ranked 17th, 11th, 26th, and 24th in team rushing yards over that time. I'd be interested to hear what's changed to make you think that they will "pound it" this year.
There's been a lot of talk by both coaches and players in emphasizing the running game this year. I think this might be due to the fact their season w/ their best rushing ranking of the last 4 years is the year they made the playoffs. So I think they'll run more, but I don't necessarily think it'll hurt passing yards.
I believe the O is going to look more like 05 than 07. I also think this defense is going to suprise some people. CJ shut up after he ran against Hall and Joseph last week.... the DBs are young but they're good and Zimmer's not messing around.
Without a passrush it doesnt matter how young and talented the secondary is, someone is going to get open.
 
I think that ever since TJ Houshmandzadeh was featured in that ESPN Fantasy Football commercial, he has been increasing both his stats and his ADP. However, with his current ADP of 24 and WR 7, it seems very likely that he'll disappoint owners. Consider that his receptions have increased by twelve each year for the past two seasons (from 78 up to 112). Consider that his TDs have also increased from seven up to twelve. Similarly, his yardage has gone from 956 up to 1143. The only negative has been a steady decrease in his yards per catch, dropping from 12.2 to 10.2. I think that is the key stat of concern. I think that one of the two rookie WRs will adequately replace the departed Chris Henry and I believe that Utecht will take away some of TJ's possession and chain moving receptions. I also think that Chad Johnson shows up big in 08. If any of these come to pass, there is good reasoning behind a decrease in TJ's stats and since you are forced to take him in the 3rd round if you want to get him, I think that I will likely pass.

TJ Houshmandzadeh 135 targets 88 receptions for 950 yards (10.8 ypc) and 7 TDs

 
Palmer loves him and seems to lock onto him more than CJ. I dont think anything will change this year, and think he will be an easy top 10 wr again this year

100 1100 9

 
He's got everything for fantasy success. Palmer is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, and loves his underneath safety net in Housh. Chad Johnson lining up across from him means he gets the other teams number 2 corner, which just isn't fair. The defense is TERRIBLE, so they'll have to throw all day. Nobody respects the running game in Cinci right now, but they didn't later on last year either. He struggled down the stretch last year, and that may have been because of their predictability, so hopefully for his sake, Rudi comes back, or Perry arrives.

98 Receptions

1185 Yards

11 Tds

 
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gimme Housh over CJ any day.

any Beavers out there? remember TJ's takes?

anyway, Housh will continue to produce. it's what he does. Palmer will get him the ball cause it's what he does. chemistry baby!

105 1350 13

 

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