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Player Spotlight: Terrell Owens (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Terrell Owens Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
WR1 on a high powered offense. Owens has been a pillar in the FF world for some time.

2000-3rd

2001-2nd

2002-2nd

2003-12th...his last year in SF and one where he was a lot less focused.

2004-4th

2005-32nd...missed the last half of the season and had a fallout with Philly Brass

2006-2nd

2007-2nd

7 of the past 10 years he has posted 13+ TD, 7 of the last 10 years with 80+ catches, Has avg 1262 yds in 8 of his last 10 seasons...this guy is total money. Just got a long term contract that will likely keep him in Dallas until he retires, I have him #2 on my board right behind Randy Moss.

84/1200/12 TD

 
The most fantasy points scored by a 35 year old receiver is 96-1274-9 = 181.40 by Cris Carter. I think TO has a great shot at beating that . . .

 
The most fantasy points scored by a 35 year old receiver is 96-1274-9 = 181.40 by Cris Carter. I think TO has a great shot at beating that . . .
Looks like he holds the record for a 34 year old by about 20 fantasy points.Looks like 22 WRs scored 100+ points at 34 and played at 35. Of them, only 2 (Jimmy Smith and Drew Hill) increased production. The 22 WRs averaged a decline of 56 fantasy points. Not surprisingly, the large decrease is influenced quite a bit by injury-shortened seasons at 35 years old (Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice, for example). Of the 22 WRs, only 12 of them appeared in 16 games at 35 and their average decline was only 20 points.
 
As with Moss, the question isn't whether he'll again be a top WR, but how high of a price are you willing to pay.....Owens and Moss could easily have comparable numbers, and Owens comes cheaper enough to be the better play IMO.

 
I expect more of the same out of him and the Dallas offense. Glenn is still iffy and Crayton is okay as a WR2. Owens and Witten should see a similiar number of targets as last season.

86/1270/14

 
As great as Terell Owens career has been, did you realize he's never finished as the NO. 1 fantasy receiver in a given year, ever. Still, he's finished in the top 5 most of his career when he was healthy and his speciality is catching TD's as he's caught in the 13 or more Td's in a given year as many times as most of us have digits on our fingers.

You get tired of hearing about it, but Dallas has a top notch offense and unless Dallas has some key injuries, guys on that team are going to put up some quality fantasy numbers. TO is certainly old when talking about NFL age, but the guy is a freak when it comes to staying in shape. Eventually, age catches up to everyone but I didn't see any hint of it happening to TO last season, so I have some lofty projections for his upcoming 08 season.

90 receptions for 1400 yards and 14 td's

 
How long before T.O. stands for Too Old? The funny thing about older players is that it's never too late to draft them until well it's too late. There's not like some bell that rings ending someone's career. It just happens and then you're left holding the bag. As such I don't see myself drafting T.O in any leagues this season. The price is just a little too high compared to seasons past.

 
How long before T.O. stands for Too Old? The funny thing about older players is that it's never too late to draft them until well it's too late. There's not like some bell that rings ending someone's career. It just happens and then you're left holding the bag. As such I don't see myself drafting T.O in any leagues this season. The price is just a little too high compared to seasons past.
So I'm curious as to why TO averaging a TC per game with Romo over the past two years will change because Owens is a year older. Will defenses suddenly be able to stop them? Has TO's skills eroded so much that his production has fallen (he's been the #2 WR tha past two season)?Short of an injury, has there been any evidence to suggest that Owens will suffer a big dropoff? I don't see why Owens would be anymore of an injury risk than anyone else, with the only minor exception that he might take slightly longer to recover from certain injuries (and that's only a maybe not a sure thing).Maybe the shoe will fall off and the bottom will drop out . . . or he suddenly starts eating only cheeseburgers and stops working out. But I just don't see a REASON to expect that. It could happen, but only by accident IMO.I think the greater risk is he has a TO moment and turns things into a circus, but that wasn't really one of the explanations you listed . . .
 
How long before T.O. stands for Too Old? The funny thing about older players is that it's never too late to draft them until well it's too late. There's not like some bell that rings ending someone's career. It just happens and then you're left holding the bag. As such I don't see myself drafting T.O in any leagues this season. The price is just a little too high compared to seasons past.
So I'm curious as to why TO averaging a TC per game with Romo over the past two years will change because Owens is a year older. Will defenses suddenly be able to stop them? Has TO's skills eroded so much that his production has fallen (he's been the #2 WR tha past two season)?Short of an injury, has there been any evidence to suggest that Owens will suffer a big dropoff? I don't see why Owens would be anymore of an injury risk than anyone else, with the only minor exception that he might take slightly longer to recover from certain injuries (and that's only a maybe not a sure thing).

Maybe the shoe will fall off and the bottom will drop out . . . or he suddenly starts eating only cheeseburgers and stops working out. But I just don't see a REASON to expect that. It could happen, but only by accident IMO.

I think the greater risk is he has a TO moment and turns things into a circus, but that wasn't really one of the explanations you listed . . .
You could say that about any great old player. What's changed? They're only a year older than the previous season. That's what changed they got older. The fact of the matter is that things happen and eventually TO will be Too Old. You can't be a great player forever. Maybe you're willing to spend a 2nd round pick hoping that doesn't happen this season but I'm not.
 
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How long before T.O. stands for Too Old? The funny thing about older players is that it's never too late to draft them until well it's too late. There's not like some bell that rings ending someone's career. It just happens and then you're left holding the bag. As such I don't see myself drafting T.O in any leagues this season. The price is just a little too high compared to seasons past.
So I'm curious as to why TO averaging a TC per game with Romo over the past two years will change because Owens is a year older. Will defenses suddenly be able to stop them? Has TO's skills eroded so much that his production has fallen (he's been the #2 WR tha past two season)?Short of an injury, has there been any evidence to suggest that Owens will suffer a big dropoff? I don't see why Owens would be anymore of an injury risk than anyone else, with the only minor exception that he might take slightly longer to recover from certain injuries (and that's only a maybe not a sure thing).

Maybe the shoe will fall off and the bottom will drop out . . . or he suddenly starts eating only cheeseburgers and stops working out. But I just don't see a REASON to expect that. It could happen, but only by accident IMO.

I think the greater risk is he has a TO moment and turns things into a circus, but that wasn't really one of the explanations you listed . . .
You could say that about any great old player. What's changed? They're only a year older than the previous season. That's what changed they got older. The fact of the matter is that things happen and eventually TO will be Too Old. You can't be a great player forever. Maybe you're willing to spend a 2nd round pick hoping that doesn't happen this season but I'm not.
If his numbers were starting to deteriorate, I'd say sure, I'm right there with you. But his numbers HAVE GONE UP playing in Dallas and particularly with Romo. Sure, he's older . . . but he's not in his 40s. I'd rather have a guy that's 35 and a perennial Top 5 receiver than say a 27 year old that has struggled to stay on the field (using Andre Johnson as an example).
 
don't forget that T.O. can ride shot gun to Jerry ina lot of categories with a good season. I'm sure that isn't lost on him.

Barring injury he is a lock for 12TDs and 70-95 catches for 1250-1600 yards.

I'll go with 83 - 1425 - 14TDs.

 
I think Dal will win more games with their defense this year than in prior years. In turn passing numbers will down tick a bit.

80 receptions, 1190 yds, 13 TDs.

Good enough for top 5.

 
Terrell Owens has been spectacular since leaving Philadelphia, finishing as WR2 both years and scoring 13 and 15 TDs. He has a solid QB and little competition for targets (other than Witten). I see more of the same for Owens and Romo in 08. Owens will turn 35 near the end of the season, but similar to Tomlinson, he avoids big hits and takes tremendous care of his body. The only reasons to be shy about drafting Owens is that due to his consecutive finishes as WR 2, he is now being drafted as WR 3 and 15 overall. With that lofty regard, I can see some shying away. However, if you draft him I think that you'll be pleased to have him on your roster.

Terrell Owens 150 targets 85 catches 1275 yards 15.0 ypc and 14 TDs

 
One quick note for all who are projecting over 1400 yards for TO.

- Last year was the first time TO ever had more than 80 receptions and 16+ YPC (16.7); his career YPC is 14.8 and if you just go with every season he has caught 80+ balls, he has an average YPC of 14.5.

I'm not saying it's not possible, it's just that history tends to show if TO catches 80-90 balls, expect somewhere around 1150-1300 yards.

 
LarryAllen said:
One quick note for all who are projecting over 1400 yards for TO.- Last year was the first time TO ever had more than 80 receptions and 16+ YPC (16.7); his career YPC is 14.8 and if you just go with every season he has caught 80+ balls, he has an average YPC of 14.5.I'm not saying it's not possible, it's just that history tends to show if TO catches 80-90 balls, expect somewhere around 1150-1300 yards.
:rolleyes: 85/1250/13 14.7 ypc.this guy keeps himself in tremendous shape. Works as hard as Chris Carter did..sure, he'll miss a game or two, but he's not flimsy, fragile Andre Johnson...certified top 3 WR..
 
One quick note for all who are projecting over 1400 yards for TO.- Last year was the first time TO ever had more than 80 receptions and 16+ YPC (16.7); his career YPC is 14.8 and if you just go with every season he has caught 80+ balls, he has an average YPC of 14.5.I'm not saying it's not possible, it's just that history tends to show if TO catches 80-90 balls, expect somewhere around 1150-1300 yards.
TO's also been playing in the west coast offense before dallas
 
The most fantasy points scored by a 35 year old receiver is 96-1274-9 = 181.40 by Cris Carter. I think TO has a great shot at beating that . . .
yea, TO is on a different level than Cris Carter. theres no reason to think TO cant put up top 5 numbers for a few more yrs.
 

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