I like your analysis of the situation, but if you take your predictions then Heap is only averaging 9.24 yards/game. His lowest average per reception in his career was 11.2 in 2004......of course, when he only played in 6 games. I will go with the average of you 86 receptions and his all-time high 75, which comes out to 81 receptions. I will use his 12.2 yards per reception (using the median of his career numbers).IMO, with the McNair to Mason connection intact again and Lewis/Anderson pounding the ball, Heap will have better matchups to exploit. It cannot be ignored that he is somewhat of a question mark in regards to his health, but with his conditioning this offseason and the arrival of McNair he has to be considered a great value in later rounds. Most are still wary.
I know that offesive systems will vary, but a QB who is coming from a team whose platoon of TE's took in 147 receptions, 1346 yards, and 8 TD's... targets, not necessarily production, are coming Heap's way.
"Air McNair" will probably give bigger chunks to his WR's with Heap seeing a lot of shorter yardage and goaline situations. I think in PPR leagues Heap's gonna make a lot of people really happy.
Projection: 86-795-9 Barring injury, of course... Heap or McNair!
His 2006 stats will look like this: 81 catches 988 receiving yards 9 TD's
It will put him just behind Gonzo as the 2nd rank TE for receiving yards. I have Gates falling to #4 behind Shockey. Hope this helps!
RAPTURE