Player Spotlight: Tony Romo (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Tony Romo Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Tanner9919]

will see tougher coverages and more blitzes now that T.O. is gone..outside of Witten he has questionable talent at the WR position..who is his #1 WR? Roy Williams?

I think Dallas tries to rely more on the run,less on the pass this season..Felix Jones and M. Barber are going to be extremely busy RB's...

400 att, 244 comp,3220 yards, 22 td, 14 int , 4 fumbles..

always good for that 4-int game every so often...

too much is going to be on his shoulders and I'm not sure how he'll respond..he's soft..

 

[Snotbubbles]

will see tougher coverages and more blitzes now that T.O. is gone..outside of Witten he has questionable talent at the WR position..who is his #1 WR? Roy Williams? I think Dallas tries to rely more on the run,less on the pass this season..Felix Jones and M. Barber are going to be extremely busy RB's...400 att, 244 comp,3220 yards, 22 td, 14 int , 4 fumbles..always good for that 4-int game every so often... too much is going to be on his shoulders and I'm not sure how he'll respond..he's soft..

400 attempts is really low. In 2008, the NFL average was 516. The Carolina Panthers had the fewest attempts at 416. Even a run heavy team like Tennessee had 453 attempts. I can't see Romo having less then that in a 16 game season.

 

[MAC_32]

The moves Dallas has been making leads me to believe they're planning on a more conservative offensive attack, which should be good for real NFL QB Romo, but not so much for fantasy. He's not going as high as I expected him to, but he's still too rich for my blood. I'd prefer Carson or Hass a bit later.

 

[Bankerguy]

The moves Dallas has been making leads me to believe they're planning on a more conservative offensive attack, which should be good for real NFL QB Romo, but not so much for fantasy. He's not going as high as I expected him to, but he's still too rich for my blood. I'd prefer Carson or Hass a bit later.

I think this is only partially right.I agree that the Cowboys will try to becomed a more balanced offense from a run to pass ratio. However, I don't see Garrett all of the sudden going completely conservative. They still have a decent WR corps and the best pair of TE's in the league (Witten/Bennett). I'm not predicting a great season, but it shouldn't mean doom and gloom for Romo either.

 

[MAC_32]

The moves Dallas has been making leads me to believe they're planning on a more conservative offensive attack, which should be good for real NFL QB Romo, but not so much for fantasy. He's not going as high as I expected him to, but he's still too rich for my blood. I'd prefer Carson or Hass a bit later.

I think this is only partially right.I agree that the Cowboys will try to becomed a more balanced offense from a run to pass ratio. However, I don't see Garrett all of the sudden going completely conservative. They still have a decent WR corps and the best pair of TE's in the league (Witten/Bennett). I'm not predicting a great season, but it shouldn't mean doom and gloom for Romo either.

If you're not expecting doom and gloom then we agree

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

will see tougher coverages and more blitzes now that T.O. is gone..outside of Witten he has questionable talent at the WR position..who is his #1 WR? Roy Williams?

I think Dallas tries to rely more on the run,less on the pass this season..Felix Jones and M. Barber are going to be extremely busy RB's...

400 att, 244 comp,3220 yards, 22 td, 14 int , 4 fumbles..

always good for that 4-int game every so often...

too much is going to be on his shoulders and I'm not sure how he'll respond..he's soft..

Seriously? He's had one game of five picks and three of three in 3 seasons; doesn't seem bad at all to me.315/500

3900 yards

28 TDs

16 Ints

30 rushes

100 yards

0 TDs

3 Fumbles

Before anyone gets on me; my projections across the board are actually lower than his career per game averages, as well as his per game averages last season.

If he stays healthy, I see no reason not to think he will finish top-5. He finished as QB1 in 07; QB 9 last season (QB6 points per game). I don't think the loss of Owens is going to mean as much as some think. Owens had 8 games of less than 50 yards receiving, and six of those, he didn't score in either. Even when Owens was playing bad, Romo found a way to utilize his other weapons and put up numbers. Roy Williams can't be any worse than he was last year and Crayton, Hurd and Austin all have been with the team a few years. Add in a healthy Felix Jones and I think this team continues to be extremely effective on offense.

 

[Darker Knight]

380/550/4400/30/11.....Big year for Romo

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Even when Owens was playing bad, Romo found a way to utilize his other weapons and put up numbers.

Even when Owens is playing bad, he still draws coverage to his side of the field though. That softens up the middle for for the TE and puts the other WR be in single coverage a bunch. Roy Williams isn't gonna do that anywhere near consistently, even on his best day.I don't think Romo is going to fall off the face of the earth, necessarily, but to expect him to do "as good or better", plugging in Williams for Owens....I think it's going to take one of the other WRs stepping up for Romo to have a top five finish. Full disclosure: I think Roy Williams pretty much blows and is going to find a way to suck, regardless of the plum situation he has found himself in. If one of Crayton/Hurd/Austin can perform above expectations then maybe he'll still have a shot at it.

 

[rzrback77]

The book on Romo is still being written. He has not shown to be a clutch player yet and neither has his team lately. He has had very high expectations and fell a little short most times. This will only be his fourth as a starter and he could progress rather than the seemingly expected decrease this season.

The one thing that I keep coming back to on Romo is not yet showing strong leadership. I recall a quote in the off-season where he indicated that he was planning to be a better leader this year. That is not really something someone plans to do. Either you are or you aren't, its not like you practice at leading and get better.

The Cowboys definitely have less talented WRs this season without Owens, unless Roy Williams exceeds most folks projections. They have three very good running backs so the thought seems to be that they should use them more. They have averaged almost 34 passes per game the last two years, which would be 544 over the season, so I don't expect a drastic decrease from that.

One last troubling stat is Romo's ypa over his three years as a starter. In 05, his first season, he averaged a phenomenal 8.6 ypa. The next year it dropped to a solid 8.1. Last year it slipped further to 7.7. Now, there is nothing wrong with 7.7, but his completion percentage has also steadily declined. I anticipate with the loss of Owens, the ypa could slip more with a increased focus on the TEs and RBs in patterns.

Tony Romo 520 attempts 312 comp 60.0% 3796 yds 7.3 ypa 26 TDs and 18 ints

 

[ratbast]

His RB talent will counter some of the downgrade to Roy from Owens which IMO is less than most think.

I traded for him.

 

[finito]

380/550/4400/30/11.....Big year for Romo

Boy that's high. I don't see it at all.3700, 23 TDs, 12 IntsNot horrible, but nothing to write home about.

 

[Phlash]

380/550/4400/30/11.....Big year for Romo

Boy that's high. I don't see it at all.3700, 23 TDs, 12 IntsNot horrible, but nothing to write home about.

4400 is certainly feasible. He's trading an aging Owens for a Roy Williams entering his prime. RW is ridiculously underrated in these parts and I think that whole offense will surprise people by staying pretty high octane. My predictions aren't quite as high but they're still pretty good.340 completions530 attempts4150 passing yards32 TDs16 INTs

 

[Pictus Cat]

Roy to one side

Crayton/Austin to the other

2 TE Witten & Bennett

Barber/Felix/Choice

Plenty-o-options. I think the WRs will see the increase in opportunity.

 

[Dave Larkin]

For me, the jury is still out on Romo as an NFL QB. Just when you think he is on a roll with the offense, he throws that costly interception or fumbles the ball during a crucial period. Granted, it is not always his fault, but there are times when he looks fragile.

Obviously the biggest loss for him is Owens, but the flip side to that is that Owens won't be asking for the ball on every play. Romo has played with Owens his whole career. Now that 81 is out of town, Roy Williams takes his place as Dallas' number one option, and that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me. Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback are unproven. That means Jason Witten is the only viable option in the passing attack that is a proven commodity. He is set for his best season of his career quite possibly.

Dallas will run the ball more this year, especially since they have Felix Jones healthy again. Tashard Choice also showed a lot of promise last season, especially in that Pittsburgh game. So it will be run first for the Cowboys in '09.

So my projections for Romo are:

297 completions

480 attempts

3,336 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INT

 

[Manster]

The book on Romo is still being written. He has not shown to be a clutch player yet and neither has his team lately. He has had very high expectations and fell a little short most times. This will only be his fourth as a starter and he could progress rather than the seemingly expected decrease this season.The one thing that I keep coming back to on Romo is not yet showing strong leadership. I recall a quote in the off-season where he indicated that he was planning to be a better leader this year. That is not really something someone plans to do. Either you are or you aren't, its not like you practice at leading and get better.The Cowboys definitely have less talented WRs this season without Owens, unless Roy Williams exceeds most folks projections. They have three very good running backs so the thought seems to be that they should use them more. They have averaged almost 34 passes per game the last two years, which would be 544 over the season, so I don't expect a drastic decrease from that. One last troubling stat is Romo's ypa over his three years as a starter. In 05, his first season, he averaged a phenomenal 8.6 ypa. The next year it dropped to a solid 8.1. Last year it slipped further to 7.7. Now, there is nothing wrong with 7.7, but his completion percentage has also steadily declined. I anticipate with the loss of Owens, the ypa could slip more with a increased focus on the TEs and RBs in patterns.Tony Romo 520 attempts 312 comp 60.0% 3796 yds 7.3 ypa 26 TDs and 18 ints

Romo is a competitor. has he come up clutch? not yet. can he be a leader? i think so. dont forget, T.O. is a polarizing guy in the locker room. i'll argue that Romo will be able to better lead the Cowboys without T.O. around. i think the bigger question is how will other guys step up. i.e., Roy, Austin, Hurd, Felix, Martellus.

His RB talent will counter some of the downgrade to Roy from Owens which IMO is less than most think. I traded for him.

agreed. the '09 Cowboys have some great young talent. Felix is fast with vision. MBIII is a bruiser. and Choice showed much talent late last season. i think MBIII goes back to a thunder to lightning(Felix) role. this keeps him fresh and more explosive in the 4th Q.IF Garrett can come up with a less predictable gameplan, the Cowboys will have a better overall "team" this season. this will carry over to Romo having a strong yr. maybe a few less int's and TD's than his average, but more effective.obviously i'm biased. so take it for what it's worth.

 

[flyonthewall]

Owens gone, doesnt bother me one bit. Romo is an elite QB and has proven that through his short career. In 2006 he took over as the starter in week 8 and proceeded to throw for nearly 3000 yds and 19 TD's. In 2007, his first year as the starter, he threw for 4200 and 36 TD's and also added 2 rushing TD's. And last year, even missing 3 games, he still threw for over 3400 and 26 TD's. Owens last year only caught 69 passes. And this was when Romo was supposedly "forcing him the ball". That is not hard to replace. Romo threw for 2 or more TD's eight times last year. And do you know how many multiple TD games Owens had? ONE!

A 16 game season from Romo should easily be right around 30 TD's. Not bad for a 5th round ADP.

 

[whodeywhodey]

What worries me is that I see a lot of similarities with what happened to Eli losing Burress last year.

I think some are underestimating what TO meant to that passing offense. Not just what he did directly but the indirect effect he had on the other WRs and Witten.

I am staying away from Romo in the 5th this year. IMO I would rather have McNabb.

 

[bostonfred]

I don't think the loss of Owens is going to mean as much as some think. Owens had 8 games of less than 50 yards receiving, and six of those, he didn't score in either. Even when Owens was playing bad, Romo found a way to utilize his other weapons and put up numbers. Roy Williams can't be any worse than he was last year and Crayton, Hurd and Austin all have been with the team a few years. Add in a healthy Felix Jones and I think this team continues to be extremely effective on offense.

Three of those eight games were when Romo was hurt. Owens averaged almost 75 yards and .75 TDs per game in Romo's starts. That's a pretty substantial loss. Roy Williams had 19 catches for 198 yards in seven games last year. In Detroit, he had 17 catches for 232 yards in five games. The year before that, he had 836 yards and 5 TDs. And he hasn't developed a rapport with Romo. It's possible he has a good year, but it's no slam dunk. Yes, the receivers that you named have been with the team for a few years. And they've all stunk. The good news is that they'll get more playing time. The bad news is that Owens won't be drawing coverage away from them. This is a team that has one of the better 1-2 punches at running back in the league. Most of the passing offense looks to come from the running backs and tight end. I'd say Romo's situation went from looking like Phillip Rivers' 2008 (4000/34) to Phillip Rivers' 2007 (3200/22), and I'd drop his stats accordingly.