Player Spotlight: Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Torrey Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I am curious to see how Smith is used this year. We know he will be a target deep, but will he get crossing routes, short and intermediate work as well? I think he will, as he is a playmaker.

70 - 1055 - 9

 

[Eminence]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

 

[Half in the bag]

He enters this year as the clear # 1wr but can he produce like one in fantasy terms. I'm willing to roll the dice on him because of his situation and upside. If he has another 900yrd 8 td season I wont be heartbroken.

 

[JPeso]

70 catches / 1120 yards / 10 TD = 242 PPR / 15.1 PPR PPG

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think he sees more coverage, and is confirmed as a one-trick pony...

120 targets, for 60-1000-7, ~13ppg, ~WR30

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I think he sees more coverage, and is confirmed as a one-trick pony...

120 targets, for 60-1000-7, ~13ppg, ~WR30

For some reason, teamrankings.com has Torrey with 135 targets last season, which I found amusing. I mean, I know Torrey's a deep-ball guy and all, but 49 receptions on 135 targets? He could have done that with Ryan Lindley throwing to him. ESPN lists the number at 110, which I find a lot more rational.

Regardless, I came on here to post something very similar to wdcrob. As I mentioned in the Ray Rice prediction thread, Boldin was more important to this offense than many people assume, not least in his ability to draw coverage away from Smith. Unless someone steps up to fill Boldin's shoes as a possession and crossing-route receiver, it could be a long season for the Flacco-Smith connection.

He finished last season around WR23, and is being drafted this season around WR23. As a guy dependent on the big play, Smith could put up 10 TD (which would make him a borderline WR1), but is equally or more likely to post 4 TD (which is closer to WR3 territory). As such, he makes an attractive WR3 option if he falls there, but I'm not depending on him as my week-in, week-out WR2.

Projection: 59 receptions, 981 yds (16.6 avg), 7 TD

 

[fightingillini]

I think a lot of people will think Torrey Smith with take a big leap this year with Boldin gone.......but I am not so sure about that. I can't see him as that volume WR1 type guy......IMO he's better suited as the deep threat that benefits with someone good on the other side. I see defenses playing the safety over the top a lot this year and force BAL to throw short a lot this year. I mean, besides Rice and Pitta, who else does BAL have right now that will scare opposing defenses? And it's not like Pitta is going to scare anyone either.

But is ADP of WR25 is reasonable. I would take Smith as my WR3 all day. I think it shows how deep the WR pool is this year.

68 rec, 1025 yds, 7 TD

 

[Stealthycat]

the low projections -- does that mean BAL / Flacco will have that many fewer completions/attempts/passing TD's than last year? Who will pick up the 65-921-4 that Boldin had in 2012?

Pitta?

Rice?

Flacco completed 315, 306, 312 passes in the previous 3 years, 21/25/20 TD's ...... someone is going to have more targets/catches with the departure of Boldin and I think Torrey Smith is that recipient.

80 catches / 1200 yards / 12 TD

 

[fightingillini]

the low projections -- does that mean BAL / Flacco will have that many fewer completions/attempts/passing TD's than last year? Who will pick up the 65-921-4 that Boldin had in 2012?

Pitta?

Rice?

Flacco completed 315, 306, 312 passes in the previous 3 years, 21/25/20 TD's ...... someone is going to have more targets/catches with the departure of Boldin and I think Torrey Smith is that recipient.

80 catches / 1200 yards / 12 TD

I think Flacco is going to be very overrated this year. I expect BAL to run the ball more than usual, with Pierce picking up additional carries (I still have Rice getting about 20 touches a game).

Sure others will pick up the slack, but that doesn't mean that Torrey Smith will. He's going to be double teamed a lot this year unless someone else besides Rice and Pitta step up.

Personally, I think Pitta and Dickson are going to benefit more from Boldin's departure than Torrey Smith.

And I wouldn't call my projection of 68/1025/7 really low. I just see Smith for what he is......a deep threat and not a volume guy. You must feel that he will take it to the next level. I am skeptical of that, but at his current ADP of WR25, it is a decent gamble, since his floor is likely something like WR30 and his upside is probably something like WR15.

 

[FF Ninja]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

 

[lbouchard]

Sure others will pick up the slack, but that doesn't mean that Torrey Smith will. He's going to be double teamed a lot this year unless someone else besides Rice and Pitta step up.

Not that I really disagree with your predictions, but Smith functioned as the WR1 last year as well and faced double teams a lot.

 

[Chase Stuart]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

The second season. More yards, more targets, more touchdowns.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

One of the most jaw dropping stats I’ve come across this off-season is this. Despite never having missed an NFL game in his 2 seasons thus far, Torrey Smith has yet to reach 100 career receptions (99). It just seems like he’s had more production and big moments that his career reception number would indicate. Smith is a burner type receiver…he’s not developed into a go-to target, but rather a target that you use strategically in a big play strike capacity.

Perhaps that’s because coming out of Maryland, he was seen as a guy who was going to need some seasoning. Or maybe because with Anquan Boldin established as one of the most consistent and strongest WR’s in the league, some of the safer more conservative pass patterns and routes went to him. Consider that through Smith’s first two seasons, 19.2% of his receptions have come via passes thrown 21+ yards downfield. Purely for comparisons sake, Julio Jones who came into the league at the same time only has an 11.3% rate on this length of reception even though he’s seen as Atlanta’s big play threat. More pertinently though, let’s look at Mike Wallace. Wallace, who most agree is one of the best deep threats in the game, has sported a 10.3% rate the last two seasons. Where the Wallace comparison become relatable and quite interesting as it relates to Smith is that in his 1st two seasons in the NFL, he caught 26.3% of his passes 21+ yards downfield. In short, defenses adjusted and took away his bread and butter which resulted in Wallace having his poorest statistical season since his rookie year. Some of the criticism directed at Wallace has been an inability to diversify his game...that while he remains one of the best players in the NFL at taking the top off a defense, he’s not been able to take advantage of that ability to create more underneath options for himself in the passing game. He’s done so for other players, most notably Antonio Brown, but Wallace’s subpar production started to become glaring last year. He was practically useless when Big Ben went down with his rib injury.

So as we land back on Smith, he now is the potentially the #1 receiving option on the Ravens with Boldin having been traded. The question for him is does he branch his game out allowing him to take advantage of off-coverage to become a well-rounded receiver or does he become Mike Wallace v2? There is some risk here. For one, for as solid a downfield threat as Smith has been, Wallace was significantly more prolific downfield – if you consider just the 41+ yard passes, Smith has a career mark of 6/278/3. Wallace? 21/991/12. So it did appears as if defenses don't have to account for Smith's deep game like they would Wallace which would in turn seem to indicate that coverages could still adapt to Smith should he develop the short-to-intermediate route tree. If Smith does not further expand his game, it’s quite possible he could come in with his worst season as a pro with Boldin not around to draw away attention. In essence, Smith will have to get open on his own merits moreso now. That said, if he does branch out his game, he could take that next step up in his career.

I like Torrey Smith. His game against the Patriots,when less than 24 hours after the death of his brother, he put together the game of his life (10/127/2), was downright Favre-ian. It showed character beyond his years. You root for guys like that. And you hope that the character he showed that days translates to his ability to improve as a football player and is indicative of the player and man that he is. And generally I like betting on those guys. The opportunity is there for Smith. That the Ravens were as willing to allow Boldin to move on so soon after his extraordinary playoff performance would seem to indicate they believe in Smith despite not having seen him perform consistently at a level they think he’s capable of. The Ravens are one of the most astute organizations and front offices out there. So I’m going to be optimistic and predict a breakthrough. But caveat emptor…the downside here is significant.

Prediction: 71 Receptions 1159 Receiving Yards, 9 TD’s; 3 Rushes 22 Yards

 

[matttyl]

For all those who are saying Smith won't get 1,200+ yards (which so far has been everyone in this thread) - I'm curious to know how many yards you think Flacco will throw for. I'm guessing around 3,800 (maybe more), and if Smith is only getting 1,000-1,100 - who's getting the other 2,800?! That's a lot of yards to divide up between Pitta and Rice.....

 

[Stealthycat]

well that's just it fightingillini .... its not so much Torrey Smith as it is Flacco's 3 years of consistent completions and the removal of Boldins 65 .... who's going to get them ?

I do not think the 100 million dollar contract QB coming off a Super Bowl win is only going to complete 250 passes vs the 300-310 he's averaged the past 3 years do you ?

 

[Ray Finkle]

65/1100/9

 

[Borden]

I think what sets Smith apart from a lot of guys in his ADP neighborhood is that he is setup for success.

He still has a great HC. Their running game is rock solid and likely the main focus of defenses still. He is seemly the uncontested #1 WR on his team. He has a new OC that was an internal promotion, so it isn't like he has a completely person and scheme and playbook to deal with. He doesn't appear to have any major injury risks. He has a good if not great QB that he should have some chemistry with. He is still young enough that improvement is likely. He has unteachable speed.

I don't know if he will but I will project his ceiling numbers with this being a break out year.

85/1300/14

That looks really, really high. Maybe that is unreasonable but I will stick with it.

 

[fightingillini]

well that's just it fightingillini .... its not so much Torrey Smith as it is Flacco's 3 years of consistent completions and the removal of Boldins 65 .... who's going to get them ?

I do not think the 100 million dollar contract QB coming off a Super Bowl win is only going to complete 250 passes vs the 300-310 he's averaged the past 3 years do you

You tell me? How about the another WR on the other side of Smith.....that will account for most of Boldin's departure. The remainder likely goes to Pitta and Dickson, likely Pitta since he plays a similar role to Boldin. It's possible Smith gets more, but I am not buying it.

I never said that Flacco is going to complete less passes than last year. It's just some feel Flacco has turned the corner and the offense is going to go through Flacco. He's a good QB and he got paid, I look at Flacco as a better NFL QB as opposed to fantasy QB. The strength of BAL's offense is at the RB position.....I think BAL is going to run it more than last year. The Ravens don't have the personnel to sling it all over the field.

 

[fightingillini]

For all those who are saying Smith won't get 1,200+ yards (which so far has been everyone in this thread) - I'm curious to know how many yards you think Flacco will throw for. I'm guessing around 3,800 (maybe more), and if Smith is only getting 1,000-1,100 - who's getting the other 2,800?! That's a lot of yards to divide up between Pitta and Rice.....

I have Flacco for 3600.

68/1025 to Smith

68/775 to Pitta

65/525 to Rice

43/500 to Dickson

76/775 to rest of the WRs/RBs

Total of 320 completions for 3600 yards.

Again, I am not high on Flacco this year. I am in the camp that BAL is going to run the ball more this year.

If you think Flacco is throwing for 4000 yards, then yes, Smith is very likely to get 1200.

 

[FF Ninja]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

The second season. More yards, more targets, more touchdowns.

Negligible yards, significantly worse catch %. But if you're going to say more yards then I guess I could say less catches, although I consider both to be negligible. Same with 1 TD, although that is worth a hefty 6 points in fantasy. But in the real world, the second season is no better than the first if it took 15 extra targets to get to basically the same numbers.

 

[Chase Stuart]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

The second season. More yards, more targets, more touchdowns.

Negligible yards, significantly worse catch %. But if you're going to say more yards then I guess I could say less catches, although I consider both to be negligible. Same with 1 TD, although that is worth a hefty 6 points in fantasy. But in the real world, the second season is no better than the first if it took 15 extra targets to get to basically the same numbers.

The second season is better than the first in part because he saw 15 extra targets.

 

[Eminence]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

Have you seen him play? He's grown leaps and bounds since his Rookie Season and I think he has even more room to improve his game. The guy is pretty athletic, long and wirey.

Eyeball test, Joe Flacco throws a very pretty deep ball.

 

[Stealthycat]

RB's get a few more, an unknown WR as of yet get a few more .... ok if that's what you're thinking that justifies the same old numbers by Smith

I think 1/3 to even 1/2 those Boldin targets will go to Torrey Smith and unless he gets worse at catching the ball, he'll get more receptions, more yards, and as many or more TD's

Flacco wants to prove he's elite - he's going to throw methinks. Maybe I'm wrong

 

[Leonidas]

RB's get a few more, an unknown WR as of yet get a few more .... ok if that's what you're thinking that justifies the same old numbers by Smith

I think 1/3 to even 1/2 those Boldin targets will go to Torrey Smith and unless he gets worse at catching the ball, he'll get more receptions, more yards, and as many or more TD's

Flacco wants to prove he's elite - he's going to throw methinks. Maybe I'm wrong

Will that be his call?

 

[FF Ninja]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

The second season. More yards, more targets, more touchdowns.

Negligible yards, significantly worse catch %. But if you're going to say more yards then I guess I could say less catches, although I consider both to be negligible. Same with 1 TD, although that is worth a hefty 6 points in fantasy. But in the real world, the second season is no better than the first if it took 15 extra targets to get to basically the same numbers.

The second season is better than the first in part because he saw 15 extra targets.

Getting extra targets means he's getting better? That's what the guy said. I don't see how getting more targets and catching less means he's getting better.

I'm kind of nit picking here, but it was just a dumb statement to make when he had almost identical stats. He finished WR23 both years.

 

[fightingillini]

RB's get a few more, an unknown WR as of yet get a few more .... ok if that's what you're thinking that justifies the same old numbers by Smith

I think 1/3 to even 1/2 those Boldin targets will go to Torrey Smith and unless he gets worse at catching the ball, he'll get more receptions, more yards, and as many or more TD's

Flacco wants to prove he's elite - he's going to throw methinks. Maybe I'm wrong

Every player wants to prove that they're elite.

But Flacco doesn't call his own plays. He has one other elite player on the offense......that's Ray Rice. He has another very good up and coming RB.....that's Benard Pierce. His WR/TE are average at best compared to other teams. Pitta is a good TE but not an elite one. Same with Torrey Smith. He's a good WR but not an elite one. The other WRs are unproven. I have a hard time projecting Flacco for 3800+ passing yards. It's not a knock on Flacco's talent, I think he's a good QB (but not an elite one).

That's fine.....we don't agree. That said, Smith does have a reasonable ADP, but I don't think he has FF WR1 potential, because I can't see him catching 85+ passes. His ceiling IMO is about WR15 and his floor is about WR25. At ADP of WR23, you're paying for a level close to his floor, which is good. I would love to have Smith as my WR3, but not as my WR2. In fact, he's the prototypical WR3 that I love to own......can explode some weeks and help me win that week, and when he throws up a dud, it's not that big of a deal.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Getting extra targets means he's getting better? That's what the guy said. I don't see how getting more targets and catching less means he's getting better.

I'm kind of nit picking here, but it was just a dumb statement to make when he had almost identical stats. He finished WR23 both years.

I agree it's nit picking since it's a trivial difference, but yes, getting more targets would imply that he's getting better. It means he's getting better at getting open, or his quarterback is trusting him more to throw to him even when he's covered, or his OC believes in him more so he's making him the primary receiver more often.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Torrey Smith is maddeningly inconsistent, as he can put up 4/100/2 one week and then 1/8 the next. I know all WRs put up dog weeks here and there, but he is so boom of bust that he needs to do it before I trust him to be a reliable WR2. The fact that he seemingly has one pattern (go deep!) doesn't help. Hopefully, they will start throwing more short passes to him to see if he can break a few for big plays.

That said, the loss of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis could hurt their defense, and if they end up in a few more high-scoring shootouts, then that could greatly benefit Smith, Flacco and others in the passing game.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Torrey Smith is maddeningly inconsistent, as he can put up 4/100/2 one week and then 1/8 the next. I know all WRs put up dog weeks here and there, but he is so boom of bust that he needs to do it before I trust him to be a reliable WR2. The fact that he seemingly has one pattern (go deep!) doesn't help. Hopefully, they will start throwing more short passes to him to see if he can break a few for big plays.

That said, the loss of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis could hurt their defense, and if they end up in a few more high-scoring shootouts, then that could greatly benefit Smith, Flacco and others in the passing game.

I'm willing to give him a pass because of his age. I agree if he doesn't take the next step this season into being a more consistent player, that would be a concern.

 

[Stealthycat]

agree to disagree that Torrey Smith will get at least 1/3 or more of the 112 targets Boldin got in 2012

You think those will be split between RB's, TE and unknown as yet WR .... I think Smith gets at least 35-40 of them, and I think he catches a bit better (you'd think he would get better at least a little ) .... more targets, better catching rate even by 5-10% all equals what, 75-80 catches ??

I'm a believer

 

[Half in the bag]

Torrey Smith is maddeningly inconsistent, as he can put up 4/100/2 one week and then 1/8 the next. I know all WRs put up dog weeks here and there, but he is so boom of bust that he needs to do it before I trust him to be a reliable WR2. The fact that he seemingly has one pattern (go deep!) doesn't help. Hopefully, they will start throwing more short passes to him to see if he can break a few for big plays.

That said, the loss of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis could hurt their defense, and if they end up in a few more high-scoring shootouts, then that could greatly benefit Smith, Flacco and others in the passing game.

I'm willing to give him a pass because of his age. I agree if he doesn't take the next step this season into being a more consistent player, that would be a concern.

From what I saw he was used to stretch the field quite a bit last year. He ran a lot of low catch % fly patterns, go routs, flags, posts, out and ups. They liked him to clear out to open up all the underneath stuff like slants, drags, seems, and square ins. These tend to have a higher catch %. If he's used in the same manner this year I can see him having similar #'s as last year. If they use him as a true number 1 his catch % should improve and I could see 80rec 1200yds 12 tds

 

[Eminence]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

The second season. More yards, more targets, more touchdowns.

Negligible yards, significantly worse catch %. But if you're going to say more yards then I guess I could say less catches, although I consider both to be negligible. Same with 1 TD, although that is worth a hefty 6 points in fantasy. But in the real world, the second season is no better than the first if it took 15 extra targets to get to basically the same numbers.

The second season is better than the first in part because he saw 15 extra targets.

Getting extra targets means he's getting better? That's what the guy said. I don't see how getting more targets and catching less means he's getting better.

I'm kind of nit picking here, but it was just a dumb statement to make when he had almost identical stats. He finished WR23 both years.

It's not a dumb statement to anyone who actually saw him play last-year. I don't need stats to tell me a player is learning his craft and playing at a higher level; making more athletic catches; running more fluid - diverse routes.

 

[FF Ninja]

Getting extra targets means he's getting better? That's what the guy said. I don't see how getting more targets and catching less means he's getting better.

I'm kind of nit picking here, but it was just a dumb statement to make when he had almost identical stats. He finished WR23 both years.

I agree it's nit picking since it's a trivial difference, but yes, getting more targets would imply that he's getting better. It means he's getting better at getting open, or his quarterback is trusting him more to throw to him even when he's covered, or his OC believes in him more so he's making him the primary receiver more often.

I agree it would imply he's getting better, just as a lower catch % would imply he's not getting better. Not that he's dropping balls, but they targeted him more and he wasn't actually open more. I don't doubt there was some improvement from year 1 to year 2, but all in all, Torrey Smith was probably one of the least impressive 1st to 2nd year jumps for someone who looked so promising since perhaps Eddie Royal. But in the future, I'll try to let silly a$$, uninformed statements slide.

 

[Chase Stuart]

a lower catch % would imply he's not getting better.

I don't think that's the case.

 

[ol blues]

I'm not seeing the growth in Smith's game to suggest that he progresses beyond WR2- range. He has reasonable deep skills for occasional bombs, but you just don't see him running quality intermediate routes, escaping press coverage with any consistency, adjusting routes to account for unexpected coverages, using his body to screen off defenders or, in general, exhibiting the skills necessary to step up his role beyond the "go deep" guy. Perhaps he has better skills and it's just the assigned role he's had so far in this offense, but he just hasn't shown enough so far to be anything more than a WR20-25 guy.

 

[Grahamburn]

Maybe he hasn't been asked to do those things yet? Are we under the impression the Ravens will utilize Smith in the same manner as they have in the past?

That seems dubious considering they allowed Boldin to leave and did not add a veteran WR.

Harbaugh and the Ravens front office look like they'll give Smith every opportunity to be their #1 WR. I don't know if that will translate to fantasy WR1 status, but Smith should definitely see an increase in targets and receptions.

I expect him to be a decent WR2.

1,050 yards and 8 TDs.

 

[therokie0070]

Last year he was a WR3 this year he is a WR2 with a shot at being a low-end WR1 just based on the extra looks now that bold in is gone

76/1250/8

 

[Assani Fisher]

I think non-Ravens fans are tremendously overrating Boldin's impact on the Ravens' offense last year because they just saw the playoff games. Boldin doesn't draw double coverage much. At this stage of his career he is a guy who will sometimes struggle to get open against just one defender, but he is great when his QB throws the ball in a good place because he has great strength and body control to fight for the ball. Defenses worry about Torrey Smith and Ray Rice mostly. If anything I think Rice will be hurt more by Boldin's departure, as those 2 operated in the same parts of the field often.

 

[bengalbuck]

I think Torrey is pretty risky for where he is being drafted. I get it because the upside is there. The old "3rd year rule" is much less popular and less applicable with WRs coming in way more developed and NFL ready from college. But if you do buy into it, there is legit reason for optimism about him making the leap. He was a bit more raw coming out and this may be the year whe he is finally comfortable and ready to truly breakout.

I also think there is a case to be made that after winning a SB and getting the big contract, Flacco also makes the leap and becomes a 4,000+ yard passer. Sort of like Eli made a leap statistically after winning in the postseason. An improved, more aggressive Flacco could lead to bigger numbers for Torrey even if Smith doesn't improve his own game significantly.

Despite all those positives, I worry that Torrey is a guy who will be less valuable in fantasy (especially in PPR) than he is to the Ravens. His speed forces teams to keep a Safety deep on his side and opens up the run game and the underneath stuff. But I just don't see him as a high volume, 80+ catch guy. And while he will get his TDs on deep balls, he is just okay in the red zone, so I don't really see him ever having a huge 12+ TD season.

Something like 60-1,050-9 seems like a reasonable prediction but the potential is there for 2010-11 Mike Wallace type numbers.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He's not talented enough to be a superstar Wr1. For me, Boldin leaving and simply saying Torrey's in for a big year because he picks up the slack isn't going to happen. Torrey should have been a little more consistent, but he wasn't. He's a good player to have in leagues where you can start your entire team and take on your best weekly scorers as he's going to be capable of big weeks but he'll also have low weeks that will leave you cursing and scratching your head for the following week.

57 catches, 910 yards and 7 tds

 

[steveski]

I refuse to grab this guy anywhere near his ADP. He was by far the most frustrating player I owned last year in any of my leagues and I don't see why that would change this year. He catches 2 balls per game. He's either 2/10/0 or 2/100/2. Not the kind of guy I want on my roster being expected to start every week.

 

[ImTheScientist]

What I like about Smith is what he did on limited catches. He had less than 1,000 yards but he also only caught 50 passes last year. I think he is a surefire bet to catch at least 65 - 70 passes if they assimilate him into the Offense like they act like they're going to.

70 Catches / 1,125 Yards / 10 Touchdowns

Smith is getting better each season.

I don't understand why you bolded that. Which is the better season? 95 targets 50/841/7 or 110 targets 49/855/8? 15 extra targets for 1 less catch and 1 more TD? Personally, I did not project his catch % to drop from 52.6% to 44.5%. I was much more hopeful last year. I'm not going to avoid him just because he burned me, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm. I think he's very likely to surpass his ADP of WR25, but I don't see WR1 breakout potential anymore. Not in this offense anyway. Flacco just wasn't able to connect with him last year, so with him likely seeing more defensive attention now that Boldin was traded, I have a hard time getting excited about his prospects this year. Torrey Smith is a guy I'll take if no one else I like (at that draft position) is on the board, but I sure won't be targeting him. He seems very talented so I won't be shocked if he breaks out, but I will be fairly surprised.

The second season. More yards, more targets, more touchdowns.

 

[Beerguzzler]

This guy screams bust to me based on some of these predictions. He just isn't that good running a variety of routes. He made his living running deep routes, I don't see that changing. He isn't going to magically get a lot more deep looks and if he isn't proficient running shorter routes, those reception numbers aren't going to climb much.

It's not like he wasn't targeted, he got 110 and only caught 49 balls. Boldin got 112 targets and I expect most of those to go to Jones.

Biggest beneficiaries are gonna be the TE's and Pitta in particular IMO.

55/900/7

 

[FF Ninja]

I refuse to grab this guy anywhere near his ADP. He was by far the most frustrating player I owned last year in any of my leagues and I don't see why that would change this year. He catches 2 balls per game. He's either 2/10/0 or 2/100/2. Not the kind of guy I want on my roster being expected to start every week.

A new offensive coordinator is a pretty strong catalyst for change.

I'm still on the fence here. I see some pretty crazy projections so I probably won't land this guy, but I won't be shocked if he puts up a solid year. If they can find a way to improve his catch %, the targets were already there last year and he'll probably have a few more this year. It's worth noting that in the 6 games he played with Caldwell (ignoring week 17), he was only on a 45 catch/16 game pace. I like his talent, but I'm having a hard time getting optimistic about him despite the fact that I'm nearly certain he'll outplay his ADP - I just don't think he'll outplay it by enough to make a difference on our fantasy teams. However, if you're playing not to lose, I can't imagine Smith finishing worse than his WR25 ADP considering he's finished WR23 his first two years.

 

[steveski]

I refuse to grab this guy anywhere near his ADP. He was by far the most frustrating player I owned last year in any of my leagues and I don't see why that would change this year. He catches 2 balls per game. He's either 2/10/0 or 2/100/2. Not the kind of guy I want on my roster being expected to start every week.

A new offensive coordinator is a pretty strong catalyst for change.

I'm still on the fence here. I see some pretty crazy projections so I probably won't land this guy, but I won't be shocked if he puts up a solid year. If they can find a way to improve his catch %, the targets were already there last year and he'll probably have a few more this year. It's worth noting that in the 6 games he played with Caldwell (ignoring week 17), he was only on a 45 catch/16 game pace. I like his talent, but I'm having a hard time getting optimistic about him despite the fact that I'm nearly certain he'll outplay his ADP - I just don't think he'll outplay it by enough to make a difference on our fantasy teams. However, if you're playing not to lose, I can't imagine Smith finishing worse than his WR25 ADP considering he's finished WR23 his first two years.

I could definitely see him finishing WR23 or better this year. If he caught 5/60/.5 every week I'd be happy. Unfortunately, it's more like 7/140/2 one week and then the following 2 weeks combined it's 4/30/0. New OC or not, I don't really see much changing. I'm not that high on his ability as an every down receiver and I'm not that high on Flacco as an every game QB. Too much inconsistency on that team for my liking. If he somehow falls to me as my WR3/WR4 then maybe I'll go for him. No way I'm drafting him as my WR1/WR2 though.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think we're in the same boat. There are several guys in that range that I'd rather have as my WR2. In a redraft, I'll probably take Steve Smith over him every time. I was kind of taking the devil's advocate stance with you there. When a guy only averages 3 receptions per game, he's going to be hit-or-miss each week. If he can somehow become more consistent then he'll be a stud, but I think there's less than a 20% chance he becomes a WR1. I think Steve Smith outscores Torrey Smith 9 out of 10 times if you could run a simulation of the 2013 season right now. But it's still going to scare me that someone else is landing him.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

I used to be able to get this guy consistently at the tail end of the 5th round, but this last week, he's climbed to mid-fifth. And that's my problem.

If I'm drafting in the 5-7 hole, I start with a RB and have a fairly good chance of looking for a WR2 in the 5th round at that point. And for a WR2 on my team, I don't think I want TS. As has been pointed out, he's too inconsistent. But if I'm picking around 10-12, then I can't see myself having a RB in my first two picks, so I'm likely fishing for my WR3 in the fifth round. From the mocks I've done, his value is climbing into a weird place where his value would be at a time when it most likely won't meet my team's needs. I would be willing to wager that 3 times out of 4, he lands on the first or second team looking for their WR3 in the 5th round. I expect he'll climb from mid 5th to early 5th over the next month.

 

[Air Stich]

I was also a frustrated Torrey Smith owner last year, but I'm not avoiding him this year. I disagree with posters who say he doesn't have the ability to be a #1 WR in the league, since Baltimore has essentially said that he is one with their current receiving corp. My impression of last season is that it wasn't his play that was so inconsistent, it was his involvement in the game plan. There were a few games (New England) where he was heavily targeted on short and intermediate routes and looked like a true #1. Then there were other games where he'd only get 3 targets.

Here are a couple useless stats for you:

He had 7 games with 5 or fewer targets. Remove those and he prorates to 68 catches, 1,155 yards, and 12 TDs

He had 6 games with 9 or more targets. Those games prorate to 85 catches, 1,448 yards, and 13 TDs

My optimistic projections:

140 Targets, 81 catches (58%), 1,137 yards (14 ypc), 11 TDs, 6 carries, 40 yards

A lot of us were just a season too early last year.

 

[Beerguzzler]

There's a reason he didn't have many targets in some games - He couldn't get open. He was great on the deep routes where he could use his speed, but he didn't seem to have that explosiveness in short and intermediate routes (nor did he seem to run crisp routes).

One aspect that people are over looking is that he's now going to be treated like a #1 WR and coverage is going to be aimed in his direction. Will he be able to handle that coverage and get open without a legitimate threat on the other side of the field? Plenty of #2 WR's suffer this fate when they are put into the #1 role without actually having the skills and ability to be that #1 WR that can handle getting all the attention from the opposing defense. Food for thought.