I suppose questions might exist about Henry, but in all cases, the answer is very simple- follow the money. Money doesn't lie. If a team pays someone starter money, it's to be a starter. Denver paid Travis Henry more than any other Denver RB has made since Davis, despite a history of underpaying RBs. Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, and Clinton Portis *ALL* ran for 1,000 yards on minimum salaries. When Portis asked for more money, he was traded for Bailey. When Droughns asked for more PT, he was traded to Cleveland. When Mike Anderson hit an escalater in his contract and his cap figure shot up, he was cut. When Tatum Bell neared the end of his rookie contract, he was traded. Yet somehow, despite this tendency to spend the absolute minimum humanly possible at the RB position, Shanahan went out and signed Travis Henry to a big money contract. He balked at giving big money to Anderson, who was incredibly productive (and the featured back, I might add), and yet he had no qualms about giving even BIGGER money to Travis Henry. It's therefore plain to see that Shanny loves Henry far more than he loved Anderson- which is very high praise, given Anderson's incredible performance in Denver (I've already posted entire books on Success Rate and how Anderson was a stud in Denver's system).Shanny has let his money (well, Bowlen's money) do the talking: Henry is the man.
I still can see Henry performing well, but it just may not be the same RB gold mine in Denver as it used to be.
To be honest, the main reason why Denver has been an RB gold-mine is simply because Mike Shanahan is committed to the run. Since Shanahan came to town, Denver has run more than any other team in the league (and it's not really all that close). Since Shanahan came to town, Denver has devoted a higher percentage of its salary cap to the offensive line than any other team (although KC comes close- coincidentally, who are the two best running teams in the NFL?).When you talk about long-term running success, everyone goes nuts over the Razzle-Dazzle, the stud RBs with special talent... but year in and year out, the most productive running teams are those with the best OFFENSIVE LINES, not the best runningbacks. Case in point, compare Edgerrin James in Indy (great offensive line) to Edgerrin James in Arizona (one of the worst OLs in the league). And while you're at it, look at what Edge's replacements did in Indy.Shanahan's philosophies on OL Development and his committment to run the ball more than anyone else are both unchanged- and unlikely to ever change, since this is what got him two superbowl rings and one of the best winning percentages in the league. As long as Shanahan is in town, Denver is going to be a dominant running team. Now, they might have mini-slumps, or sub-par (for them) seasons, but if I were playing a 10-year dynasty league with team running games instead of individual runners, Denver would absolutely, positively go #1 overall, even if Nalen and Lepsis *ARE* on their last legs (remains to be seen- Nalen and Lepsis were both the best in the league at their respective positions as recently as two years ago, and both are still performing at a very high level).
There's only one problem. His dropsies.
There is one other problem. Isn't he one strike away from a Ricky Williams Vacation? That being said, I could see Henry get the hook for a game or two if he drops the ball. I think Shanny will have no problem starting the kid and benching Henry for a game to send a message. 1400 yards rushing250 yards receiving11 total TD's
If he stays clean he will no longer be in the drug program in October.
Are you sure he cycles out completely? I thought he just had a single strike wiped off his record, so another strike would mean a 4-game suspension instead of a 16-gamer.
It is all about being the feature guy.If Henry gets 75% of the carries he will have a very good season. 1400 and 12-14 TDs is not out of the question.The problem is if he fumbles early in games Shanny has the rep of yanking a guy and not putting him back in.It happened to both Bells a couple of times last year.
It happened to the Bells because neither of them ever had a firm grasp on the job. If you look back historically, Shanahan has a relatively long leash. I mean, how many times did Quentin Griffin have to fumble before he lost the starting job- and even then, if Droughns hadn't stepped up so spectacularly, Griffin probably would have gotten it back at some point.He might have a short leash during training camps, but by the end of training camp he will have made up his mind whether you're a fumbler or not, and he's not going to let a fumble or two change that mind until you start to acquire enough that it can't be ignored anymore. Shanahan trusts an entire offseason worth of evaluation to be more accurate than one or two fluke plays during a game.
Oh darn, I'm sure going to miss all the off-season Den RB threads.
Seems everyone loves Henry. I guess I can't argue that much. He did put up very nice numbers in Tenn last season and Tenn presumably stunk... or did they? 8-8 with Young opening up some pretty nice running lanes? Oh, why open that can of worms. I guess I'll just have to wait until Henry fumbles a few times in camp to get things back to normal around here.
Rushing: 285 att., 1170 yds, 7 TdsReceiving: 15 rec., 90 yds
4.1 yards per carry? Is there any particular reason why you're projecting Henry to 4.1 yards per carry? In his "healthy/starter years" that's the lowest he's ever had (and even that season, part of the reason his ypc was so low was because he was playing through injury- wasn't he on a broken foot?). Last year, he averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Is Denver's rushing attack that much weaker than Tennessee's?
Who do you think Cutler is going to dump passes off to when every team blitzes him because he is a young quarterback. And yes, Denver used the screen play pretty effectively in the TD era. I expect 2 or 3 receptions a game for Henry. He had 18 last year without having the full time gig until mid season. To predict 15 for Denver is ludicrous IMO.
First off, this whole "young QBs need dumpoffs!" thing is mostly a myth and a ridiculously overrated myth at that.Second off, who's the only Denver acquisition who's getting paid more than Travis Henry? Oh yeah, that's right, Daniel Graham. As much as he's making (more than Antonio Gates), you think Denver might get him a little bit involved in the passing game? I also hear that Scheffler kid's pretty good, too.
TEs aren't always dump off options. And, he's averaged nearly 2 Receptions per game, yet you have his total at just over half of his average. There's no reason to expect such a huge drop off. I would expect Shanny to be smart enough to utilize Henry in the passing game, because he is a descent receiver, and it will really help Cutler. I'd say 32 receptions is the floor if he stays healthy, and we could even see him crack into the 40's.
The high for receptions by a RB since Clinton Portis is 32 by Reuben Droughns (which is a little bit misleading, since Droughns was a fullback, and Shanahan has always had his FBs active in the passing game, especially near the goal line). Heck, Portis himself had a high of 38. So you're saying Henry- who has *NEVER* been heavily involved in the passing game- will get as many catches as any Denver RB has had in... what, 8 years? And he'll do this despite Denver just acquiring the best 2-TE set it's ever had in its entire history, and starting to place more emphasis on vertical passing besides?I think you might want to brush up on what, exactly, the word "floor" means.