Player Spotlight: Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

1400 yards rushing

12 touchdowns

30 receptions

300 yards

 

[FF Ninja]

My thoughts on why Richardson's YPC average is meaningless. http://www.footballperspective.com/why-trent-richardsons-3-6-ypc-average-does-not-matter/

While I agree, I don't think it was a very strong argument. Getting 70% of your team's carries just means that they either invested a lot in you and used you as such or they didn't have other options. It's almost the same point as the first round pick point. They drafted the guy early because they believe in his talent and they gave him a lot of carries early in his career because they believe in his talent. Same Same. Almost all the youngest guys on that list of 26 were 1st round picks, except for Forte (2nd). In fact only a handful of guys on that entire list were not first rounders. The guys who weren't, like Curtis Martin and Jamal Anderson, didn't get their heavy volume, low ypc until age 25 when they'd already proven their talent.

The simple facts are that the Browns were a bad team in 2011 and had a rookie QB last year so Richardson was the #1 threat. He was also injured. I fully expected his ypc to suck last year. I predicted 4.0 ypc and got blasted for it when everyone else was busy projecting 4.5 ypc. He'll improve as the offense improves.

Lots of first round running backs don't get 70% of their team's carries. But if the point is the Browns believe in his talent, I think that's the most important thing.

Yeah, I think we generally agree on Richardson. I just didn't see anything concrete enough in there to make it worth writing an article about. The % of carries a rookie gets can vary for a lot of reasons. In this case, there was total crap behind Richardson and they let him play all 3 downs. If Weeden pans out, Richardson should shine this year. First year in a new offense, though. Could be a shaky start which would be a great buy-low opp for those who are concerned about the low ypc last year.

 

[Biabreakable]

Hey Chase I like The Rock schtick and all, but you will need some more convincing cooking for the punch line.

Yards per Carry is a pretty important stat. I do like the information you provided on 1st down runs. I also liked seeing which players had the most 10+ yd carries. Maybe it would be more correct if this were 8+ yd carries I am not sure.

 

[Banger]

A lot of people bringing up that he plays in a tough division vs. the run.....last year:

Cin 26.5 pts

Bal 16.4 pts

Cin 5.4 pts

Bal 13.6 pts

Pitt 17.2 pts

15,82 avg which extrapolates to 253 pts, good for RB4. I'll take that.

The guy basically had a number of things go against him last year and he still finished as the #9 RB...reading some of these posts I feel like I'm looking at a different player than some. He had a rookie QB, a #1 WR that hadn't played in a year, knee injury and little camp his rookie year, then gets ribs broken and plays through it most of the season. I hope a lot of people are down on him this year and I can scoop him up in all my drafts.

275-1175-12 55-400-1

I think their defense can be very good this year which tends to be good for the offense and getting the ball back.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I like how many people cited Cleveland as a negative as if Jim Brown's town were inherently bad for running backs. The Browns have had a top-7 ppr back in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Only Hou, Phi, Bal, and Min can match that.

BTW, note that 2 of the 5 teams mentioned are in the AFCN.

 

[hxperson]

My thoughts on why Richardson's YPC average is meaningless. http://www.footballperspective.com/why-trent-richardsons-3-6-ypc-average-does-not-matter/

While I agree, I don't think it was a very strong argument. Getting 70% of your team's carries just means that they either invested a lot in you and used you as such or they didn't have other options. It's almost the same point as the first round pick point. They drafted the guy early because they believe in his talent and they gave him a lot of carries early in his career because they believe in his talent. Same Same. Almost all the youngest guys on that list of 26 were 1st round picks, except for Forte (2nd). In fact only a handful of guys on that entire list were not first rounders. The guys who weren't, like Curtis Martin and Jamal Anderson, didn't get their heavy volume, low ypc until age 25 when they'd already proven their talent.

The simple facts are that the Browns were a bad team in 2011 and had a rookie QB last year so Richardson was the #1 threat. He was also injured. I fully expected his ypc to suck last year. I predicted 4.0 ypc and got blasted for it when everyone else was busy projecting 4.5 ypc. He'll improve as the offense improves.

Lots of first round running backs don't get 70% of their team's carries. But if the point is the Browns believe in his talent, I think that's the most important thing.

Yeah, I think we generally agree on Richardson. I just didn't see anything concrete enough in there to make it worth writing an article about. The % of carries a rookie gets can vary for a lot of reasons. In this case, there was total crap behind Richardson and they let him play all 3 downs. If Weeden pans out, Richardson should shine this year. First year in a new offense, though. Could be a shaky start which would be a great buy-low opp for those who are concerned about the low ypc last year.

I tend to agree with both of you guys. Ultimately I feel that anyone who is focused on Richardson's YPC didn't watch him play much. He may not have had a lot of big runs, but his talent and ability was glaringly obvious last year. Injuries are the only thing I think that could derail him, but with his style of play that is a meaningful risk.

 

[karmarooster]

 

[karmarooster]

So I wanted to tackle Richardson (lol ya right) for my next topic of study. I tend to be in the camp that favors his talent, situation, and offense more than I hold his injuries of low YPC last year against him. For all the uncertainty in this thread, these things are actually somewhat certain:

• He plays on an offense that will probably feature a single RB running, receiving, and at the goal line
• LIke last year, there still isn't much else at RB
• 1+1=2. He's going to be the centerpiece of the offense.

Injuries - like I said I don't hold it against him that much, because he played 15 games last year with broken ribs. And then I saw this little nugget in the FBGs email today, concerning Eddie Lacy:

Lacy came off as a passive, even depressed personality in Dunne's piece. He obviously has talent, but there is an extra level of drive that is necessary to succeed in the NFL. The article also recounted how Alabama players would have to practice and play hurt because of the quality of players coming up behind them. This could be an explanation for why so many Crimson Tide prospects have needed surgery after leaving Tuscaloosa.

Consider what Richardson was able to do last year, after missing lots of preseason and training camp, and after having won the national championship, done the heisman tour, and the draft tour. He seems remarkable tough and I'm not ready to put the 'injury prone' label on him yet. So I'm going to project for 16 games and expect him to miss a game or two just like every other RB.

Yards Per Carry - I'm expecting a decent jump in YPC, because I suspect the broken ribs had something to do with it, and he was a very young player in the NFL last year. I don't have the numbers but anecdotally, very young RBs tend to improve with a year or two experience - 21 year old Ray Rice jumped from 4.2 to 5.3, and 20 year old LeSean McCoy jumped from 4.2 to 4.8. Richardson was 22 last year. (I know these RBs aren't very similar to TRich - I'm not using them to estimate his YPC only the idea that it will jump based on a year of seasoning).

There are a few decent places to look to estimate an expected jump in YPC. First off, Peyton Hillis averaged 4.4 YPC on a very mediocre Browns team with not much else besides a decent o-line (sound familiar?). Richardson is more talented than Hillis, and the O-line is basically as good as the 2010 line, and I think even shares a few linemen (Thomas?... anyone else?).

Next, I checked out a few of the backs mentioned by Chase - Forte, Edge, Ricky Williams, and LT. I think Richardson is more talented than Forte, similar to Edge and Ricky, and of course just maybe a bit short of LT. The numbers don't line up perfectly.

• Forte went from 3.9 to 3.6, before jumping to 4.5 YPC in his 3rd year.
• Ricky went from 3.5 to 4.0 in New Orleans before jumping to 4.8 in Miami.
• Edge went from 4.2 to 4.4
• LT went from 3.6 to 4.5, with Norv
• Also going to throw in Gore, who went from 4.8 to 5.4 with Norv in his 2nd year.

Now there's a good chance Richardson improves to something still below average like 4.0 YPC. The above numbers can be interpreted to suggest a modest jump or even a decline in year 2... but they also hint at the possibility of a BIG jump - a year 2 increase of 0.9 for LT and 0.6 for Gore, both with Norv. Forte and Ricky eventually went from 3.5-3.6 to 4.5-4.8.

Because I'm optimistic about the development of Gordon (and to a lesser extent WR2), the possibility of TE Cameron, and Norv's offensive expertise, I think the starting point for Richardson's increased YPC should be a league average of 4.2 or 4.3. On top of that, you can add whatever you think accounts for his talent and Norv's scheme. 0.1 or 0.2 for EACH one of those make it plausible that he could jump up to, say, 4.7. I also think the high 4s are probably his YPC ceiling for this year, but IMO he has the talent of a 5.0+ YPC RB in the right offense with the right team around him (not this year).

Number of Carries - BIG props to Biabreakable on page 1 for some nice details about Norv's usage of the RB in his offense as both a rusher and receiver. He pro-rates to 285 carries last year. The offense and the lack of competition makes him one of the most likely 300 carry backs in the league, probably THE most likely back to get 300 carries after AP (putting aside every RBs injury potential).

He also seems like one of a small handful of RBs most likely to have over 50 receptions (Martin, Charles, Spiller, Rice, Forte, Bush, Sproles). He ALSO seems like one of the safest bets to push 10 TDs.

300 carries x 4.5 YPC = 1350 yards

55 receptions x 7.0 YPC = 385 yards (1,700 total)

12 TDs

That might seem like an aggressive projection, but I'm not going to call it his ceiling because it's based on either demonstrated past ability and usage (TDs, receptions), his offensive scheme (carries), and past improvements in YPC based on the offensive scheme, and other similarly talented RBs. I think his ceiling is as high as 325-340 carries at 4.7 YPC, and 60-75 receptions at 7.5 YPC (2000+ total yard potential). His healthy floor is probably something like 3.9 YPC for 275 carries.

This puts him in the same tier as Charles, Lynch, and Rice and IMO higher than McCoy and Spiller (PPR).

 

[Biabreakable]

Pretty much the way I am seeing it as well. I have Richardson as the 2nd best RB in 2013.

 

[Biabreakable]

I like how many people cited Cleveland as a negative as if Jim Brown's town were inherently bad for running backs. The Browns have had a top-7 ppr back in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Only Hou, Phi, Bal, and Min can match that.

BTW, note that 2 of the 5 teams mentioned are in the AFCN.

The AFCN plays the NFCN this season also which means favorable match ups against the Packers and Lions. The Bears as a defense are declining. The only difficult match ups to me look like the 2 vs Baltimore, the Vikings and perhaps the Jets.

 

[The Scorpion]

Pretty much the way I am seeing it as well. I have Richardson as the 2nd best RB in 2013.

So anyone else really pull the trigger on this? You are sitting with the second pick in the draft and steady eddie Foster is there along with sexy Jamal and Dougie Fresh. Can you really take a Cleveland Brown??? I think yes. YPC should go up, check. Carries should go up, double check. Receptions should go up, triple check in PPR leagues. TDs should be about the same. Done, TRich, #2 RB in Fantasy PPR this year.

 

[msudaisy26]

Pretty much the way I am seeing it as well. I have Richardson as the 2nd best RB in 2013.

So anyone else really pull the trigger on this? You are sitting with the second pick in the draft and steady eddie Foster is there along with sexy Jamal and Dougie Fresh. Can you really take a Cleveland Brown??? I think yes. YPC should go up, check. Carries should go up, double check. Receptions should go up, triple check in PPR leagues. TDs should be about the same. Done, TRich, #2 RB in Fantasy PPR this year.

\In dynasty I can see someone doing it but I wouldn't, in redraft I wouldn't touch this guy until the end of the first... maybe

 

[msudaisy26]

I like how many people cited Cleveland as a negative as if Jim Brown's town were inherently bad for running backs. The Browns have had a top-7 ppr back in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Only Hou, Phi, Bal, and Min can match that.

BTW, note that 2 of the 5 teams mentioned are in the AFCN.

The AFCN plays the NFCN this season also which means favorable match ups against the Packers and Lions. The Bears as a defense are declining. The only difficult match ups to me look like the 2 vs Baltimore, the Vikings and perhaps the Jets.

Going off last years numbers the Jets would be a great match up, they gave up the 7th most rushing yards in the league

 

[Biabreakable]

I like how many people cited Cleveland as a negative as if Jim Brown's town were inherently bad for running backs. The Browns have had a top-7 ppr back in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Only Hou, Phi, Bal, and Min can match that.

BTW, note that 2 of the 5 teams mentioned are in the AFCN.

The AFCN plays the NFCN this season also which means favorable match ups against the Packers and Lions. The Bears as a defense are declining. The only difficult match ups to me look like the 2 vs Baltimore, the Vikings and perhaps the Jets.

Going off last years numbers the Jets would be a great match up, they gave up the 7th most rushing yards in the league

Good point. I do think the schedule looks promising for both Peterson and Richardson. Just giving Rex some credit for getting more collectively from his defense than a lot of coaches.

 

[Banger]

Pretty much the way I am seeing it as well. I have Richardson as the 2nd best RB in 2013.

So anyone else really pull the trigger on this? You are sitting with the second pick in the draft and steady eddie Foster is there along with sexy Jamal and Dougie Fresh. Can you really take a Cleveland Brown??? I think yes. YPC should go up, check. Carries should go up, double check. Receptions should go up, triple check in PPR leagues. TDs should be about the same. Done, TRich, #2 RB in Fantasy PPR this year.

I heard the same arguments 2 years ago about AJ Green. Ya, he's talented but he's a Bengal with a rookie qb....fast forward 2 years. Same thing back in the day with LT when he was with the lowly Chargers who couldn't get out of their own way. Situations and teams change and you need to be fluid in your evaluations.

 

[Grahamburn]

Pretty much the way I am seeing it as well. I have Richardson as the 2nd best RB in 2013.

So anyone else really pull the trigger on this? You are sitting with the second pick in the draft and steady eddie Foster is there along with sexy Jamal and Dougie Fresh. Can you really take a Cleveland Brown??? I think yes. YPC should go up, check. Carries should go up, double check. Receptions should go up, triple check in PPR leagues. TDs should be about the same. Done, TRich, #2 RB in Fantasy PPR this year.

If Doug is gone I'm starting to think I want him over JC at the #3. Eerily quiet around TR. Doesn't seem like anyone is overly excited about him when maybe we should be?

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm not sure I'd take Martin over Richardson at this point either. He was the better player last year but Trent was roundly considered the better talent coming out. He still is. Martin has a ton of deviation in his scores from week to week. I think they are a tossup but I am leaning towards Trent at this point.

I'd got Peterson, Foster, Charles, Trent, Martin.

 

[silentcoach]

TRichardson will be solid, especially with an *improved* offense. I use improved lightly, but Weeden will improve under Norv Turner.

 

[silentcoach]

I'm not sure I'd take Martin over Richardson at this point either. He was the better player last year but Trent was roundly considered the better talent coming out. He still is. Martin has a ton of deviation in his scores from week to week. I think they are a tossup but I am leaning towards Trent at this point.

I'd got Peterson, Foster, Charles, Trent, Martin.

No love for Spiller?

 

[BWill]

Really Charles over Trent? I may understand Peterson and Foster RIGHT NOW over Trent(Maybe), but ask next year and youll change your mind. and owner.
He's the real deal

 

[Kenny Powers]

Really Charles over Trent? I may understand Peterson and Foster RIGHT NOW over Trent(Maybe), but ask next year and youll change your mind. and owner.

He's the real deal

Way to jump out on a pine branch and make that statement after Charles hurts his foot

 

[msudaisy26]

Really Charles over Trent? I may understand Peterson and Foster RIGHT NOW over Trent(Maybe), but ask next year and youll change your mind. and owner.

He's the real deal

Way to jump out on a pine branch and make that statement after Charles hurts his foot

And say next year you will change your mind and want Trent over Charles lol

 

[Nucker101]

Really Charles over Trent? I may understand Peterson and Foster RIGHT NOW over Trent(Maybe), but ask next year and youll change your mind. and owner.

He's the real deal

I'd take a healthy Charles over Trent in a redraft, especially PPR. Keeper/dynasty makes it a tougher choice.

 

[BWill]

No way, not me

 

[BWill]

and not via. injury... via talent

 

[xenon]

For a Top 10 fantasy Rb in his rookie year the shark pool seems to be really down on this guy. He played 8-9 games with a broken rib and missed one game completely and still easily outproduced his ADP from last year. He was playing with a rookie qb and missed the greater part of training camp and preseason due to a offseason knee scope. He catches a ton of passes, is a centerpiece of the offense with no threat to touches behind him and has shown to be a force at the goal line. If you believe his talent, you expect his YPC to go up to a respectable level.

In redraft in the 6-7 spot, assuming the obvious are gone, I'm not sure I could pass on him.

1350 yds 11 td / rec 440 2 td.

For a Top 10 fantasy Rb in his rookie year the shark pool seems to be really down on this guy. He played 8-9 games with a broken rib and missed one game completely and still easily outproduced his ADP from last year. He was playing with a rookie qb and missed the greater part of training camp and preseason due to a offseason knee scope. He catches a ton of passes, is a centerpiece of the offense with no threat to touches behind him and has shown to be a force at the goal line. If you believe his talent, you expect his YPC to go up to a respectable level.

In redraft in the 6-7 spot, assuming the obvious are gone, I'm not sure I could pass on him.

1350 yds 11 td / rec 440 2 td.

I find myself debating between him and Lynch at 7...what's the consensus between the two?

 

[Kenny Powers]

Really Charles over Trent? I may understand Peterson and Foster RIGHT NOW over Trent(Maybe), but ask next year and youll change your mind. and owner.

He's the real deal

Way to jump out on a pine branch and make that statement after Charles hurts his foot

And say next year you will change your mind and want Trent over Charles lol

Keep banging that drum. I have nothing different to say to you considering 1 RB has possibly a significant injury and the other doesnt.

 

[Eminence]

He's gonna have a monster season.

 

[Clifford]

330 x 5.2 = 1716 yards, 12

55 x 8 = 440, 4

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Really Charles over Trent? I may understand Peterson and Foster RIGHT NOW over Trent(Maybe), but ask next year and youll change your mind. and owner.

He's the real deal

I'd take a healthy Charles over Trent in a redraft, especially PPR. Keeper/dynasty makes it a tougher choice.

In keeper/dynasty it is not a tough choice between Trent and Charles.

99/100 would take trent and the 1/100 taking charles likely has brain damage.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I'd take a healthy Charles over Trent in a redraft, especially PPR. Keeper/dynasty makes it a tougher choice.

What would that look like?

 

[jdoggydogg]

People are overthinking this. Richardson is a talented, pedigreed runner on a team with little competition at the position and will receive a heavy workload steered by one of the most successful running game architects of the last 15 years. A virtual lock for a top five finish.

 

[Nucker101]

People are overthinking this. Richardson is a talented, pedigreed runner on a team with little competition at the position and will receive a heavy workload steered by one of the most successful running game architects of the last 15 years. A virtual lock for a top five finish.

I agree, I have them both as top 5 backs this year. Just love Charles if healthy in Reid's offense. But T-Rich gets a boost for basically having zero quality competition behind him. The Cleveland RB's are just awful behind him, if only the team around him was a bit better.

 

[jdoggydogg]

People are overthinking this. Richardson is a talented, pedigreed runner on a team with little competition at the position and will receive a heavy workload steered by one of the most successful running game architects of the last 15 years. A virtual lock for a top five finish.

I agree, I have them both as top 5 backs this year. Just love Charles if healthy in Reid's offense. But T-Rich gets a boost for basically having zero quality competition behind him. The Cleveland RB's are just awful behind him, if only the team around him was a bit better.

I was pretty high on Charles this year, as well. I would have drafted him in the Fantasy Football Player's Championship had I nabbed a top 3 pick.