Player Spotlight: Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Vincent Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[Shutout]

I was one of the few people that said last year that he would have a BIG year. I think most people thought he was just cashing in on his big pay day, cited the trends of WR not coming up big after switching teams, and generally didn't like the idea of going from Rivers to Freeman (for whatever reason).

anyway, I watched the Bucs closer last year than I ever have, mostly due to my interest in VJAX as a FF WR and I am pretty danged excited about him this year. THere were SO MANY "WTF" moments and scenarios that tagged the Bucs last year and kinda snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. They were completely sideways sometimes but with that being said, they showed a lot in the first year of their new coaching staff.

I think with a year to grow on and getting back some of their players they lost to injury, it could be a nice year and when I look at that division I see 6 games of nothing but shoot outs and young DBs trying to cover each other.

 

[FF Ninja]

I can't help but expect a decline from VJax this year. I guess I'm not alone since he finished WR6 last year and is currently going as WR12. His 19.2 ypr is certain to drop, but he has made a career out of being a deep threat (17.8 ypr through 8 seasons). How the hell he hit 19.2 ypc last year when the guy looks this slow, I'll never know. Although that one play did bump his average up from 18.2 to 19.2.

That's not to say there isn't a possibility for improvement. He finished last year 9th in targets with 147. I don't think that number will increase, but he caught only 49% of his targets. I don't recall seeing anything about his drops last year, so I'm going to assume most of that was on Freeman. So if Jackson was able to increase that to a more normal 55%, we're looking at a healthy 81 receptions, so even at only 15 ypr he'd eclipse 1200 yards. However, I don't have that much faith in Freeman. I think last year was a bit of a fluke and won't be drafting him near his current ADP. If Freeman does take the next step then I'll probably be wrong, but I'm not going to gamble on both Freeman and Jackson with that early of a pick.

140 targets x 50% = 70 rec x 17 ypr = 1190 yds 8 TD

 

[shader]

This thread sums up Vincent Jackson as a fantasy owner. There is just no excitement in the guy. I own him and for some reason he bores me. Why? I don't know. But no one is even remotely interested in him in trades either. He's just.....boring. But he's very productive.

 

[Khy]

This thread sums up Vincent Jackson as a fantasy owner. There is just no excitement in the guy. I own him and for some reason he bores me. Why? I don't know. But no one is even remotely interested in him in trades either. He's just.....boring. But he's very productive.

I think this is a great evaluation of Jackson. He's an extremely boring player for some reason (in most peoples minds). Which also to me makes him kind of a value pick. Cause honestly, at WR12 or so I think he's being drafted undervalued. I honestly feel like Doug Martin stole all the excitement spotlight from the Tampa offense. It's going extremely overlooked how good VJax, Mike Williams and Josh Freeman all were last season. They are all 3 being drafted significantly lower than where they finished last season. He's a good value pick in my mind. I'd expect very similar numbers to last season. Possibly even slightly higher as this is Freeman's make it or break it season with Glennon waiting on the bench.

I'll say

78 Receptions, 1300 Yards, 10 TDs

 

[Blackjacks]

And he was wanted by every team last offseason when he was a fa so obviously he has the talent teams are looking for.

Les Snead, GM of the Rams, said they drafted Brian Quick last year because they believe they found their "Vincent Jackson".

He is everything teams want, he has been very successful in real football and fantasy and I find myself not really wanting him either (I own him in a dynasty league also.)

I will just be happy keeping him and getting his normal production I guess.

85 catches 1400 yards and 10 td's.

I don't know why I wouldn't expect a little better than him in year 2 with the same qb and offense.

Those are top 5 numbers that can be had in the 4th round. Someone much more attractive than Julio or Dez IMO at the price

(I WOULD RATHER HAVE DEZ OR JULIO ON MY TEAM FOR THE RECORD BUT NOT AT THEIR CURRENT ADP COMPARED TO VJAX)

 

[Lord Fantasy]

What I love about Vincent Jackson is the offense.

Tampa Bay lead the league in 40-yard-plus passing plays with 16.

They were 7th in 20-yard-plus passing plays with 57, which in terms of big plays put them in the company of New England, Dallas and Green Bay.

As for Jackson he also got 20 red zone looks, which is more than more highly ranked WRs such as Calvin Johnson (17), Dez Bryant (14) and on par with Julio Jones (20) and Demaryius Thomas (21).

BUT . . . the same can all be said for Mike Williams.

Williams had 19 red zone looks. And while I don't have the target details, from watching Bucs games last year I saw him used the same way as VJAX to stretch the field, test the edges of the defense and to make big plays.

Personally I'd rather Williams as a WR3 with WR2 upside rather than draft Jackson as an WR1 with WR2 downside. But in this offense I don't see how you can go wrong with either of them.

 

[We Tigers]

I think both Tampa receivers are very good values right now, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if I ended up with both of them on one of my teams this year.

For Jackson in particular, I think he'll pull back slightly from his career high (by a mile) in yardage, but still be very productive. No notable additions at receiver. I see around the same number of targets and scores, but a lower YPR.

145 targets, 75 receptions, 1275 yards, 8 TDs. Boy, that's a vanilla and consensus-type prediction, but it feels right here.

 

[silentcoach]

In a PPR league he is still a number 1 wr (top 12 wr) so he is going right where he should be. The interesting thing is that I do not see a huge drop off when he is compared to MWilliams. I think MWilliams is a top 24 wr, so compared to price, MWilliams is the better bargain.

Of course, all hell can break loose (a bad thing) if Glennon ends up starting, later in the season, over Freeman because we do not know who he would prefer/target, etc.

 

[matttyl]

My projection for him last year:

74 receptions for 1,100 yards and 9 TDs

I was within 2 receptions and 1 TD - though off on yards as I didn't see him getting 19 yards per reception.

Anyway, this year I'm in for a slightly better reception per target rate (more chemistry with QB), but a lower yards per reception rate.

138 for 70 - 1,150 (16.4 ypr) and 9 TDs. Right around WR#10-12 this year.

 

[Coin Flip]

They sure gave TBMike a nice contract

 

[silentcoach]

They sure gave TBMike a nice contract

+1 I think for VALUE, mwilliams is the better bargain, but VJackson is still a top 12 wr, fantasy wise.

 

[matttyl]

They sure gave TBMike a nice contract

+1 I think for VALUE, mwilliams is the better bargain, but VJackson is still a top 12 wr, fantasy wise.

And the #7 WR in the NFL, salary wise.

 

[matttyl]

They sure gave TBMike a nice contract

+1 I think for VALUE, mwilliams is the better bargain, but VJackson is still a top 12 wr, fantasy wise.

And the #7 WR in the NFL, salary wise.

Not good value SALARY wise

Why not? He was 5th in yardage for WRs last year, and that was the fist year with Freeman for him.

 

[matttyl]

Why not? He was 5th in yardage for WRs last year, and that was the fist year with Freeman for him.

This is a collateral issue to the thread, but I'll entertain you.

Why not? Because I can at least name 7 wrs better than him:

AJohnson (even at 50 year old), BMarshall, Green, Julllllio, Dthomas, Rwhite, Vjackson, Harvin, Dezzzzzz.... okay I'll stop now.

Whoops, I named 9 wrs

Do not confuse opportunity with talent. He is not AS talented as the WRS i named above. Will he produce fantasy wise? Heck yeah!!

you may resume the VJAX thread.

So V Jax is better than V Jax?!

 

[silentcoach]

Why not? He was 5th in yardage for WRs last year, and that was the fist year with Freeman for him.

This is a collateral issue to the thread, but I'll entertain you.

Why not? Because I can at least name 7 wrs better than him:

AJohnson (even at 50 year old), BMarshall, Green, Julllllio, Dthomas, Rwhite, Vjackson, Harvin, Dezzzzzz.... okay I'll stop now.

Whoops, I named 9 wrs

Do not confuse opportunity with talent. He is not AS talented as the WRS i named above. Will he produce fantasy wise? Heck yeah!!

you may resume the VJAX thread.

So V Jax is better than V Jax?!

Looks like we had a confusion. I thought you were referring to Mwiliams being the 7th best wr--whoops!

Apologies. I'll detete that post in 5 minutes.

Wr salary wise is Fine for Vjax.

 

[matttyl]

Ha, not a problem. I thought you meant that V Jax was overpaid as the 7th highest paid WR in the NFL. It was fair value for him last year, but might not be in a year or two. For this year, I still view him as a low end #1 high end #2 type WR.

 

[Beerguzzler]

My projection for him last year:

74 receptions for 1,100 yards and 9 TDs

I was within 2 receptions and 1 TD - though off on yards as I didn't see him getting 19 yards per reception.

Anyway, this year I'm in for a slightly better reception per target rate (more chemistry with QB), but a lower yards per reception rate.

138 for 70 - 1,150 (16.4 ypr) and 9 TDs. Right around WR#10-12 this year.

Don't see why you would drop his YPR all the way to 16.4. His career YPR is 17.8.

148 Targets 77 receptions 1370 yards 11 TD's

 

[gbill2004]

I see 1400 yards and 12 TD from VJax this season. Could flirt with being the number 1 WR overall this year.