Player Spotlight: Warrick Dunn (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Warrick Dunn Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[joffer]

pretty safe bet. you've got to wonder when the 31 years and 1970 carries might catch up to him, but I don't think it's this year.

265/1185/5

29/245/1

 

[mlball77]

I agree that Dunn is a relatively safe bet once again in 06. I see his rushing yardage dropping a bit, but TD's crawling upward a bit.

Rush Yds: 1085

Rush Tds: 5

Recs: 30

Rec Yds: 270

Rec Tds: 1

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Of all the seasons to be high on Warrick Dunn, this would be the one. For the first time in perhaps his entire career, he is the unquestioned #1 RB of an NFL team. Last year, his ascension to that status led to a 1400 yard season and as much as the Falcons collapsed during the 2nd half of 2005 - it would be tough to place any blame on Dunn as he still averaged 5.0 YPC during that time.

This off-season has seen the Falcons:

- Dangle T.J. Duckett as trade bait

- Draft Jerious Norwood with a 3rd round pick

Just to refresh your memory, Duckett during the seasons final 5 games had:

38 carries for 43 yards...

Ahem...check please!

This is not to say that Duckett won't bounce back to play some type of role in the Falcons offense. But the gripe about the Falcons running game has always been that there was this RBBC situation that hung over this franchise ever since both players were brought on board in 2002.

It's clear that Dunn has a clear track to 250-300 carries and should no longer be viewed as a player who by virtue of gameplan could be negated by his own coaching staff. In addition to that - I'm not so sure Duckett is an automatic substitution at the goal line any longer so you could see Dunn's TD total get back into the 6-7 range as well.

Prediction: 278 carries, 1331 yards 6 TD's - 31 receptions 234 yards 1 TD

 

[The Ref]

Of all the seasons to be high on Warrick Dunn, this would be the one. For the first time in perhaps his entire career, he is the unquestioned #1 RB of an NFL team. Last year, his ascension to that status led to a 1400 yard season and as much as the Falcons collapsed during the 2nd half of 2005 - it would be tough to place any blame on Dunn as he still averaged 5.0 YPC during that time.

This off-season has seen the Falcons:

- Dangle T.J. Duckett as trade bait

- Draft Jerious Norwood with a 3rd round pick

Just to refresh your memory, Duckett during the seasons final 5 games had:

38 carries for 43 yards...

Ahem...check please!

This is not to say that Duckett won't bounce back to play some type of role in the Falcons offense. But the gripe about the Falcons running game has always been that there was this RBBC situation that hung over this franchise ever since both players were brought on board in 2002.

It's clear that Dunn has a clear track to 250-300 carries and should no longer be viewed as a player who by virtue of gameplan could be negated by his own coaching staff. In addition to that - I'm not so sure Duckett is an automatic substitution at the goal line any longer so you could see Dunn's TD total get back into the 6-7 range as well.

Prediction: 278 carries, 1331 yards 6 TD's - 31 receptions 234 yards 1 TD

I agree with everything here, except for the line about TJ not being an automatic substitution at the goal line. That was standard practice last year.278 and 1330 and 30ish receptions for 250 yards feels about right but with only 3 total TD.

 

[Jason Wood]

Wow...I can't believe Dunn is getting so little love.

Dunn finished a career best 12th among fantasy backs last year, and also had a career high 280 carries. Yet, his ADP suggests he can be had as a middle of the pack RB3. If his ADP holds up, and you presume Dunn can maintain his production of the last few years; he should be on just about everyone's short lists.

So where could things go wrong? Well if you look at the projections on this thread so far, people are expecting him to have 260-270 carries; yet history suggests that's unlikely (last year was the anomaly, not the rule). Also, the Falcons lost their LT in free agency and have several questions on an offensive line that's been a plus the last few years.

If you look at his current ADP, there have to be tons of people that expect him to finish with far worse stats than the current thread hints. FYI...at the time of my post, the average projections for Dunn on this thread are:

274 rushes
1,233 yards
4.5 YPR
30 receptions
250 yards receiving
1 receiving TD

 

[20431]

 

[Bizkiteer]

Wow...I can't believe Dunn is getting so little love.

Dunn finished a career best 12th among fantasy backs last year, and also had a career high 280 carries. Yet, his ADP suggests he can be had as a middle of the pack RB3. If his ADP holds up, and you presume Dunn can maintain his production of the last few years; he should be on just about everyone's short lists.

So where could things go wrong? Well if you look at the projections on this thread so far, people are expecting him to have 260-270 carries; yet history suggests that's unlikely (last year was the anomaly, not the rule). Also, the Falcons lost their LT in free agency and have several questions on an offensive line that's been a plus the last few years.

If you look at his current ADP, there have to be tons of people that expect him to finish with far worse stats than the current thread hints. FYI...at the time of my post, the average projections for Dunn on this thread are:

274 rushes
1,233 yards
4.5 YPR
30 receptions
250 yards receiving
1 receiving TD

This has been the story of Dunn's FF career. He is the poster child for underrated!

 

[thecardiackid]

I agree with everything here, except for the line about TJ not being an automatic substitution at the goal line.  That was standard practice last year.

278 and 1330 and 30ish receptions for 250 yards feels about right but with only 3 total TD.

400 views and 7 posts... in the SP no less.It's no wonder Dunn is consistently overlooked. IMO the *issue* for most owners is the lack of TDs (only 3 rushing / 1 rec. last year) explained above. Though he did have 9 tds rushing in 04 on 15 fewer carries . Not to mention Vick vulturing his share of potential RB scores to keep the shoe contracts coming in.

I'd have to admit that since I'm in a TD heavy league, Dunn (w/ Duckett around) still scares me, even w/ the solid yardage performances he's provided. In my scoring system, it's better to have the td's from Duckett vs. the yards from Dunn. Sad, but true for me anyway. He is very consistent though - see chart here:

W/ Duckett vulturing:

275/1350/4

32/250/2

W/O Duckett in the mix:

300/1500/7

40/300/3

IF Duckett is traded away, Dunn should get a bump to mid/late 2nd, but I just don't see Mora letting that happen.

Edit to add: Link provided above shows Dunn's 1 "red zone" TD in '05 compared to 8 in '04. Duckett and Crumpler are picking the bones dry in TD heavy leagues.

 

[Tau837]

250/1150/6 rushing

30/250/1 receiving

182 fantasy points - would have ranked as RB13 last year

Outstanding value here as a RB3. A few points here:

1. I think many perceive him as an injury risk, possibly because he is a smaller back. He has actually been reasonably durable. He missed 5 games in 2003, but none the past 2 seasons and only 1 in 2002.

2. Dunn is 12th among RBs in both yards from scrimmage and fantasy points since 2002, when he joined the Falcons.

3. He is 31. For some reason, age is regularly raised as an issue with Barber & Martin, but not discussed much with Dunn. He played so well the past two seasons that it's hard to see him hitting the wall this year... but it is a risk.

 

[Joe T]

pretty safe bet. you've got to wonder when the 31 years and 1970 carries might catch up to him, but I don't think it's this year.

265/1185/5

29/245/1

I agree with joffer.People keep betting against this guy and losing. I don't like the odds on "this is the year" either.

 

[nerangers]

Warrick Dunn always seems to drop in the drafts I am in, and I seem to get him at a good value.

Like many stated, everyone seems to wait for the other shoe to fall....I don't think this will be the year though.

I am thinking Dunn won't get the YPC like in past years, having him at 4.25. I do think he will still get the carries though, and figure on 270 carries.

270 1150 yds 5 TDs

toss in 30 rec at 210 yds

 

[ManODaHour]

Here's the faith I have in Dunn this year. In our keeper league, I'm trading Shaun Alexander for Donovan McNabb and the number 3 pick in our draft to stick with Dunn and Duece McAllister as my top backs. Needless to say, I'm going RB with both of my first round picks. But still, this wouldn't have even been an option in past years for me. I'd never been one to count on Dunn.

(Buyer beware: this will probably be a down year since I'm in the Dunn market.)