Player Spotlight: Wes Welker (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Wes Welker Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[JPeso]

NE's record-breaking season will not be replicated. Still, it seems like his ADP is not based on last season's stats. With 112 catches last year, it seems safe Welker will catch close to 90.

90 catches, 900 yards, 10.00 YPC, 6 TD

 

[Phlash]

Brady will throw for over 4000 yards again if you consider that his O-line is intact and Chad Jackson should fill the void left by Stallworth. I see Welker eclipsing 1,000 again as a result, but with less catches and a higher YPC.

93/1050/5

 

[bostonfred]

The Patriots played 19 games last season. The first ten:

Moss 66 catches, 1052 yards, 16 TDs

Welker 68 catches, 878 yards, 7 TDs

Advantage, Moss.

The next nine:

Moss 39 catches, 535 yards, 8 TDs

Welker 71 catches, 659 yards, 3 TDs

Moss' numbers clearly fell off by a larger margin in the second half of the season. Welker's remained strong. Moss was held to 5 or fewer catches in 11 of 19 games last year. In the second half of the season, once it became obvious that Brady was forcing the ball to Moss more than he should, teams were clearly gameplanning to shut Moss out, and it worked. The only team to beat the Patriots last year held Moss to 5/62/1, while allowing 11/103/0 to Welker. In their prior meeting, Moss put up 100 yards and 2 TDs on the Giants in a comeback victory. I fully expect Brady's numbers to regress, and I doubt Moss will put up anything close to 23 TDs again. But I don't know if Welker is in for as big a regression. His numbers were neither gaudy nor frontloaded, and if anything, his role on the team is one of the most important from game to game. I'll knock off 10% of his stats, for:

100 catches, 1050 yards, 7 TDs

That's a fairly conservative estimate, and one that I think leaves room for upside. If he becomes a more consistent end zone target - and I believe that he can - then the sky's the limit.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

6 catches a game...

96/1,125/7 TD

 

[radballs]

90 receptions, 1,050 yards, 7 TDs

 

[The Man with the Plan]

How many guys have had back-to-back 100 reception seasons? Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Herman Moore, Cris Carter, Jerry Rice and I think that's it. Not surprisingly I don't think Welker's as good as any of those guys. Brady's still his qb so he'll still get plenty of receptions.

90-1000-7

A good receiver in PPR leagues. Otherwise not that great.

 

[Tanner9919]

How many guys have had back-to-back 100 reception seasons? Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Herman Moore, Cris Carter, Jerry Rice and I think that's it. Not surprisingly I don't think Welker's as good as any of those guys. Brady's still his qb so he'll still get plenty of receptions.90-1000-7A good receiver in PPR leagues. Otherwise not that great.

in no way will Brady come close to those numbers again..Manning, after tossing 49 TD's in 2004, hasn't eclipsed 31 TD's in a season since..I think NE tries to get back to a power running game, with ball control and time consuming drives..that means less of the chuck-n-duck and more Maroney...taking last season out of the equation, Brady is a 3,500 yard, 25-28 TD guy..Only twice in his career has he thrown for more than 4000 yards, and only once has he thrown for more than 28 TD's in a season..He'll probably throw no more than 26 TD's in 2008. With Moss' lifetime avg of 12.4 TD/yr, that leaves 14 TD's to be spread among Maroney, Welker, Watson, et al.I'll project Welker for 80/880/5 as this offense gets back to a more balanced attack featuring a strong running game and two-TE sets..they can't go back to the chuck-n-duck, Brady got killed during the postseason...

 

[Banger]

You have to pick your poison with the NE offense and teams will pick to shutdown Moss and take their chances with Welker.

90-1100-8

 

[Ned]

How many guys have had back-to-back 100 reception seasons? Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Herman Moore, Cris Carter, Jerry Rice and I think that's it. Not surprisingly I don't think Welker's as good as any of those guys. Brady's still his qb so he'll still get plenty of receptions.90-1000-7A good receiver in PPR leagues. Otherwise not that great.

in no way will Brady come close to those numbers again..Manning, after tossing 49 TD's in 2004, hasn't eclipsed 31 TD's in a season since..I think NE tries to get back to a power running game, with ball control and time consuming drives..that means less of the chuck-n-duck and more Maroney...taking last season out of the equation, Brady is a 3,500 yard, 25-28 TD guy..Only twice in his career has he thrown for more than 4000 yards, and only once has he thrown for more than 28 TD's in a season..He'll probably throw no more than 26 TD's in 2008. With Moss' lifetime avg of 12.4 TD/yr, that leaves 14 TD's to be spread among Maroney, Welker, Watson, et al.I'll project Welker for 80/880/5 as this offense gets back to a more balanced attack featuring a strong running game and two-TE sets..they can't go back to the chuck-n-duck, Brady got killed during the postseason...

what leads you to believe that they're going to go back to a more balanced attack? they lost 1 game last year. you're making it sound like they went 8-8 and need to re-tool the entire offense.last season was the "anomaly" yet it was the first year he had moss and welker......i agree with bostonfred - somewhere around 100/1000/7

 

[Boston]

Count me as someone who sees last year being the norm for Welker as long as Moss is around and scaring defenses. The guy is literally open every single play and Brady is beyond comfortable with him. Last year was his first year with Brady and I only see their chemistry improving as they now understand each other's game. Welker is only 27 years old and he's just entering his prime.

As for the Pats overall offensive attack I see people saying they will become more balanced and that could very well be true. Yet, I've heard nothing locally that supports that and while the last impression of the Pats is struggling against the Giants their offense last year was historically great. They may run more but I just don't see them changing what they do too much...it makes no sense to do that since they are at their best when the ball is in Brady's hands. They probably won't put up the numbers they did last year but they should still be right at or near the top of offensive production in the league.

One x-factor here is the Pats D. They have added a lot of new faces to their back 8 and I can see scenarios where they are a better or worse D than last year. If it's a worse case scenario (i.e. the rookies don't contribute as expected and the secondary additions aren't up to snuff) than the offense maybe called upon to produce in some shootouts and that won't be a negative for Welker.

When it's all said and done I see Welker with pretty much the exact same stats as last year...

110 receptions/1150 yards/9 TDs

 

[T Bell]

The Patriots played 19 games last season. The first ten:Moss 66 catches, 1052 yards, 16 TDsWelker 68 catches, 878 yards, 7 TDsAdvantage, Moss.The next nine:Moss 39 catches, 535 yards, 8 TDsWelker 71 catches, 659 yards, 3 TDsMoss' numbers clearly fell off by a larger margin in the second half of the season. Welker's remained strong. Moss was held to 5 or fewer catches in 11 of 19 games last year. In the second half of the season, once it became obvious that Brady was forcing the ball to Moss more than he should, teams were clearly gameplanning to shut Moss out, and it worked. The only team to beat the Patriots last year held Moss to 5/62/1, while allowing 11/103/0 to Welker. In their prior meeting, Moss put up 100 yards and 2 TDs on the Giants in a comeback victory. I fully expect Brady's numbers to regress, and I doubt Moss will put up anything close to 23 TDs again. But I don't know if Welker is in for as big a regression. His numbers were neither gaudy nor frontloaded, and if anything, his role on the team is one of the most important from game to game. I'll knock off 10% of his stats, for: 100 catches, 1050 yards, 7 TDsThat's a fairly conservative estimate, and one that I think leaves room for upside. If he becomes a more consistent end zone target - and I believe that he can - then the sky's the limit.

I think this is the right approach. NE has so many other weapons that Welker simply can't be the focal point of the defensive game plan. Add that to the fact that he's usually in the slot, mismatched against a nickel CB, and moreover that his routes are usually incredibly short timing routes that are nearly impossible to defend, and he's going to get his receptions, plain and simple. I think his numbers, particularly TD's, drop this year, but overall he's going to remain very productive in fantasy.

 

[Jason Wood]

I can certainly buy into the notion that Welker just enjoyed his career year; if only because the entirety of Patriots offense probably did. Honestly, we're talking about the NFL's most productive single season in history. But I still hope upon hope that his current ADP holds steady into August; b/c he's going to land on a lot of my teams in that case. I'll say flat out that I COMPLETELY misread Welker's situation last year. While I really thought Moss would be a stud, I didn't see Welker doing what he did. It's hard not to be impressed by his game when watching the Pats. He just finds the seams in coverage, regardless of whether that's a 3-yard button hook or a 25-year deep slant. The guy gets open, catches anything thrown his way, and takes the hit.

He's not a burner nor will the Patriots use him that way so certainly his value is markedly higher in PPR leagues than conventional leagues. But even in a non-PPR redraft league, it's hard for me to see this guy as anything other than an every week starter in 10- and 12-team leagues.

 

[David Yudkin]

I have not put together a team projection for the NE offense for the upcoming season, but I would guess that they still have a ton of yardage (mostly passing) but score fewer points. That would translate to fewer TDs overall (which I think impacts Brady and Moss the most).

If we split the Pats 07 season in two (10 games and then 9 games), we can get a better look at what changed as teams adjusted to the blow out wins that NE piled up early in the year:

FIRST 10 GAMES:

131.8 rushing yds/game (30% of offensive yardage)

305.0 passing yds/game (70% of offensive yardage)

1.0 rushing TD/game (21% of offensive TD)

3.8 passing TD/game (79% of offensive TD)

LAST 9 GAMES:

96.7 rushing yds/game (27.7% of offensive yardage)

251.8 passing yds/game (72.3% of offensive yardage)

1.1 rushing TD/game (36% of offensive TD)

2.0 passing TD/game (64% of offensive TD)

Overall, NE averaged 14 fewer ppg over their last 9 games vs their first 10 games. But they INCREASED their reliance on passing yards while increasing their % of rushing TD to score points.

I will give some thought as to what Welker will do, but those suggesting that NE will opt for a more intensive running attack may want to reconsider.

I still think as a whole the Pats will pass to get the lead and run to run out the clock.

 

[MAC_32]

I'd be very interested to get my hands on a yards per attempt to WR stat. It seemed like whenever Brady looked Welker's way it was a completion nine out of 10 times. Welker was like their change of pace back except he lined up in the slot.

Nobody can matchup with Welker, that's the problem. A safety isn't physical enough and an LB isn't fast enough, not to mention Welker may be the most precise route runner in the game and he'll be on the field plenty because he is an elite blocking WR. Moss showed what he can do if you don't pay attention to him - he'll always command the opposition's CB1 and double coverage from somewhere, teams were more competitive when they made Welker beat them instead of Moss; I expect that to continue. The Pats' line is a better pass blocking line than run blocking, this is a big reason why they pass so much more than they run. They won't pass as much as they did last year but they've done nothing to lead me to believe there will be a significant dropoff.

Duplicating last season will be difficult, but I believe he has it in him. I think he'll have another 100+/1000+ season with 7-9 TD's mixed in. An excellent PPR WR2 (maybe even a #1) but I may be priced out of him in non-ppr's; he's been going in the 4th and I don't know if I like him that early.

 

[T Bell]

I'd be very interested to get my hands on a yards per attempt to WR stat. It seemed like whenever Brady looked Welker's way it was a completion nine out of 10 times. Welker was like their change of pace back except he lined up in the slot.

Wes Welker had 145 targets. HTH.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

I don't think you can underestimate the loss of Donte Stallworth to the overall spacing and explosiveness of the offense. Does Welker stay at #3 or become the #2? As a #2 I see him getting good numbers, but not huge numbers. If Chad Jackson can play the #2, then a little better for Welker.

But I still like him because he has that gym rat mentality and is nifty quick.

I would say in the range of 90 - 1050 - 7 TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't think you can underestimate the loss of Donte Stallworth to the overall spacing and explosiveness of the offense. Does Welker stay at #3 or become the #2? As a #2 I see him getting good numbers, but not huge numbers. If Chad Jackson can play the #2, then a little better for Welker. But I still like him because he has that gym rat mentality and is nifty quick. I would say in the range of 90 - 1050 - 7 TDs.

Welker will stay in the same role he had last year. Jackson and Gaffney will split the WR2 position just like Stallworth and Gaffney did last year. IMO, Jackson has a higher upside than Stallworth produced last year (while Gaffney will put up similar numbers to what Gaffney produced last year).

 

[TheFanatic]

Welker will repeat his 100 reception season this year.

102 receptions, 1100 yards and 6 TD's.

Moss will be double teamed, Welker will move the chains with tons of short passes, Moss will hit the homeruns, and Welker will get a half dozen trips to the endzone....

 

[T Bell]

I don't think you can underestimate the loss of Donte Stallworth to the overall spacing and explosiveness of the offense. Does Welker stay at #3 or become the #2? As a #2 I see him getting good numbers, but not huge numbers. If Chad Jackson can play the #2, then a little better for Welker. But I still like him because he has that gym rat mentality and is nifty quick. I would say in the range of 90 - 1050 - 7 TDs.

I own Stallworth on one of my dynasty teams and was optimistic about what he'd do in that offense, but in the games I watched he showed no more than Jackson or Gaffney. I don't think they lost anything due to Stallworth's departure.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

90 990 6

I just can't project another 100 reception since last year was more than likely the career year for the offense. I'll rank him somewhere between 15-21 depending on any tweaks to his numbers.

 

[MAC_32]

I don't think you can underestimate the loss of Donte Stallworth to the overall spacing and explosiveness of the offense.

Saw a stat last year that Stallworth was only on the field for about 30% of the Pats' offensive plays, I doubt his departure will have much of an impact on Welker's numbers.

 

[bostonfred]

I don't think you can underestimate the loss of Donte Stallworth to the overall spacing and explosiveness of the offense.

Saw a stat last year that Stallworth was only on the field for about 30% of the Pats' offensive plays, I doubt his departure will have much of an impact on Welker's numbers.

Then his statement, ironically, would be true.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

NE will show some regression to the mean this year. They will still be one of the top offenses in the NFL, but numbers are going to drop across the board, and I think that Welker's numbers are going to be among the hardest hit (Welker is a very good NFL player, but Randy Moss is a HOF player still in his prime).

75 catches for 780 yards and 5 TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

NE will show some regression to the mean this year. They will still be one of the top offenses in the NFL, but numbers are going to drop across the board, and I think that Welker's numbers are going to be among the hardest hit (Welker is a very good NFL player, but Randy Moss is a HOF player still in his prime).75 catches for 780 yards and 5 TDs.

The only thing I see changing much on offense is that NE will not score as many TDs as last year. They still have the most potent offense in the league (and with better health to some guys could be even better). The Pats also go from having one of the toughest schedules last year to (at least for now) the easiest schedule in the league. When Manning had his mega season, the Colts went the oppostire direction. The Colts had one of the easist schedules in the record setting year and one of the tougher schedules the year after. They also went from having one a middle of the road defenses to having a stronger one and did not need to score as many points to win. If NE's defense takes a step back as many have predicted, then NE may have to score more to win some shootouts.Looking back at the Martz/Vermeil Rams, people insisted that there was no way that STL could match some of their impressive stats, yet they did so for several years in a row.As I mentioned, I have not put together full projections for hte Pats this seasin, but they averaged 41 ppg in their first 10 games and 27 ppg in their final 9 games. I think they will average somewhere in the middle, but where is the question.

 

[T Bell]

NE will show some regression to the mean this year. They will still be one of the top offenses in the NFL, but numbers are going to drop across the board, and I think that Welker's numbers are going to be among the hardest hit (Welker is a very good NFL player, but Randy Moss is a HOF player still in his prime).75 catches for 780 yards and 5 TDs.

I could envision those TD numbers, but I'm having a hard time with the catches and therefore the yards. The most pronounced numbers from that offense were the passing TD's, which were of course ridiculous. They're still going to move the ball, which Welker is very much a part of, so 75 catches is very low for him. As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss. That team's going to convert 3rd (and 4th) downs; I don't see them as easily being able to chuck it deep to Moss for long TD's as they did last year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

 

[David Yudkin]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

If teams try to cover Moss better, wouldn't that leave Welker open underneath? As you said, Moss is the HOF guy, so wouldn't he stand to be the one teams scheme against, not Welker? (Welker saw significantly more targets as the season progressed).

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The only thing I see changing much on offense is that NE will not score as many TDs as last year. They still have the most potent offense in the league (and with better health to some guys could be even better).

Brady averaged 512 pass attempts and 315 completions from 2003-2006 (with 2002 less relevant d/t an abnormally inefficient ground game with shouldn't be the case in 2008). That is significantly lower than last year and tempers my projections for the Pats offense as a whole.

The Pats also go from having one of the toughest schedules last year to (at least for now) the easiest schedule in the league. When Manning had his mega season, the Colts went the oppostire direction. The Colts had one of the easist schedules in the record setting year and one of the tougher schedules the year after. They also went from having one a middle of the road defenses to having a stronger one and did not need to score as many points to win. If NE's defense takes a step back as many have predicted, then NE may have to score more to win some shootouts.

That might also lead to safer 2nd half leads (not that playing with a lead slowed them down any last year).

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

If teams try to cover Moss better, wouldn't that leave Welker open underneath? As you said, Moss is the HOF guy, so wouldn't he stand to be the one teams scheme against, not Welker? (Welker saw significantly more targets as the season progressed).

I am of the opinion that Moss will likely produce huge numbers regardless of how heavily he is covered, to large extent.

 

[jurb26]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

If teams try to cover Moss better, wouldn't that leave Welker open underneath? As you said, Moss is the HOF guy, so wouldn't he stand to be the one teams scheme against, not Welker? (Welker saw significantly more targets as the season progressed).

A couple of things:1. Not all teams will try to take away Moss. I know, I know sounds crazy. But it is true. Some teams will try and blitz or create pressure of some sort. Some teams are just stubborn about playing "their D."

2. Moss is good enough to beat 2 and sometimes 3 guys anyway. He has proven this over and over again throughout his career. Brady and NE often times force the ball to Moss because they know this. They also know that there are several passes you can throw to Moss that are nearly just as safe as a running play because of his unmatched ability. It will either be caught by him, knocked down by him or simply over everyone altogether.

3. Great coaches and teams find ways to put their best players in positions to succeed. I say this every year on this board (as a matter of fact I said it last year in regards to Moss and NE "spreading the ball around.") and yet I will say it again. BB is a good great coach and NE will again find ways to exploit Moss.

All that said, NE's passing game has no where to go but down. Last years stats can in no way be expected. I think Moss will see a rather large decrease in production, but setting an NFL record last year that too is to be expected. Still, Moss will get his. His meaning roughly 12-17 TDs IMO. Welker will and has greatly benefited from having Moss. Still, one has to expect that he too will see a decrease as the NE passing pie will decrease. I think Maroney will be leaned on a bit more this year. NE really seemed to go to the running game a lot more as the playoffs rolled on.

Welker:

90 receptions, 1025 yds, 6 TDs

 

[T Bell]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

Let's talk fantasy points, which is as decent of a measure of overall statistical production across categories (receptions; yards; TD's) as I can think of for WR's. In standard PPR (.5/reception) leagues, Moss was the WR1 and had 356.30 points (TO was WR2 with 282.50 points), while Welker was WR10 with 233.10 points. Who do you think is more likely to get 85% of their 2007 production this year, Moss with 302.6 points (which would still beat TO's points by >20), or Welker with 198.1 points? Such production out of Moss would necessarily have him putting up another all-time great fantasy season something on the order of 83/1420/20. The greatest beneficiary of Brady's prolific stats which, as I said, are particularly noteworthy for the TD's, was Moss, who had almost half of them. Brady's numbers were:398 Comp.478 Att.4806 Yards50 TD's8 INT'sThe completions, attempts and yards are all high, but not so high that they're unreachable by that offense. There's nothing ridiculous about those numbers. (Incidentally, the attempts were only 5th in the league.) Brady, however, is not going to throw 50 TD's again, or frankly anything near it. I doubt strongly he'll throw 40 (which has only been done a handful of times in history), but maybe that will happen. If you took away a quarter of Moss's 23 TD's, he'd finish with 16 or 17 which everyone here would agree would be a great year for a WR. The point here is that reversion to the mean which is likely to happen for Brady is going to most affect Moss and his TD's, not Welker and his 9-yard completions to convert first downs. I stand by Welker having a better shot of retaining his 2007 production than Moss.

 

[Boston]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

I could not disagree with this more. Are teams going to focus more on Welker and less on Moss? Is Brady going to stop using Welker more? Does BB have less faith in Welker? Will Welker be less effective in his second year with Brady when in theory their chemistry should be even stronger? Will Welker take a step backwards at age 27? I don't see the answer being yes to any of those questions. The Patriots traded a #2 and #7 for Welker (oddly enough they gave up more for Welker than Moss) and gave him a solid long term deal. They did this because they expect him to be a vital cog in their offense for the foreseeable future. He produced in 2007 and I see no reason to believe his numbers won't be in the same ballpark this year as long as #12 is throwing the ball.

 

[David Yudkin]

The only thing I see changing much on offense is that NE will not score as many TDs as last year. They still have the most potent offense in the league (and with better health to some guys could be even better).

Brady averaged 512 pass attempts and 315 completions from 2003-2006 (with 2002 less relevant d/t an abnormally inefficient ground game with shouldn't be the case in 2008). That is significantly lower than last year and tempers my projections for the Pats offense as a whole.

Normally if things remain constant things will return (somewhat) to normal. But the numbers that you listed for Brady do not factor in his receivers being Moss/Welker/Stallworth/Gaffney. IMO, his receivers from 2001-2006 paled in comparison to the reciving corps he had last year. He should have a similar strong group of receivers this year with Jackson replacing Stallworth.The other thing that people are forgeting/ignoring/not considering is that in that same timeframe (2001-2007(, NE's running totals were really not all that impressive . . .Team rank in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TD, ypc:01: 8 13 7 24 02: 28 28 26 27 03: 12 27 24 30 04: 5 7 8 18 05: 18 24 11 30 06: 6 12 4 18 07: 9 13 5 14 YPC wise, the Pats have not been very good. THe past couple of years they have had a decent rushing TD total. But the only exceptional rushing year was the year Dillon went off. The rest of the time they have been average or below average rushing wise.

 

[David Yudkin]

As an aside, the Pats have already said they will give Moss more plays off (as in not on the field of play) because he wore out some as the season progressed. IMO, that will take a smidge off his numbers. Not sure what that means to Welker's stats though.

 

[jurb26]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

Let's talk fantasy points, which is as decent of a measure of overall statistical production across categories (receptions; yards; TD's) as I can think of for WR's. In standard PPR (.5/reception) leagues, Moss was the WR1 and had 356.30 points (TO was WR2 with 282.50 points), while Welker was WR10 with 233.10 points. Who do you think is more likely to get 85% of their 2007 production this year, Moss with 302.6 points (which would still beat TO's points by >20), or Welker with 198.1 points? Such production out of Moss would necessarily have him putting up another all-time great fantasy season something on the order of 83/1420/20. The greatest beneficiary of Brady's prolific stats which, as I said, are particularly noteworthy for the TD's, was Moss, who had almost half of them. Brady's numbers were:398 Comp.478 Att.4806 Yards50 TD's8 INT'sThe completions, attempts and yards are all high, but not so high that they're unreachable by that offense. There's nothing ridiculous about those numbers. (Incidentally, the attempts were only 5th in the league.) Brady, however, is not going to throw 50 TD's again, or frankly anything near it. I doubt strongly he'll throw 40 (which has only been done a handful of times in history), but maybe that will happen. If you took away a quarter of Moss's 23 TD's, he'd finish with 16 or 17 which everyone here would agree would be a great year for a WR. The point here is that reversion to the mean which is likely to happen for Brady is going to most affect Moss and his TD's, not Welker and his 9-yard completions to convert first downs. I stand by Welker having a better shot of retaining his 2007 production than Moss.

Here's the problem. Even if you drastically decrease Moss' production, lets just say for the sack of argument 75% of his 2007 production, Moss is still at 1120/17 and probably the #1 WR in fantasy football let alone a top 12 player. If you take Welker's down by only 90% you get 1057/7, probably in the WR2 range. Sure, Moss should see the most drastic decrease on a % basis. Then again he can afford it and will still be light years ahead of Welker in fantasy terms!

 

[Boston]

As an aside, the Pats have already said they will give Moss more plays off (as in not on the field of play) because he wore out some as the season progressed. IMO, that will take a smidge off his numbers. Not sure what that means to Welker's stats though.

Also...Brady was forcing the ball to Moss late in the year as they were going for the record (it actually became a little frustrating as well). I don't see that same scenario playing out this year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

With the exception of his time in Oakland, Randy Moss has proven to be a 100/1500/15+ guy. That will likely continue. He has been the focus of pretty much every secondary he has faced since his rookie year. It really doesn't matter what scheme is used against him if he is giving 100%; he is pretty much uncoverable.

Wes Welker is a good NFL posession WR who just had his career year.

I know who I will bet on.

 

[David Yudkin]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

Let's talk fantasy points, which is as decent of a measure of overall statistical production across categories (receptions; yards; TD's) as I can think of for WR's. In standard PPR (.5/reception) leagues, Moss was the WR1 and had 356.30 points (TO was WR2 with 282.50 points), while Welker was WR10 with 233.10 points. Who do you think is more likely to get 85% of their 2007 production this year, Moss with 302.6 points (which would still beat TO's points by >20), or Welker with 198.1 points? Such production out of Moss would necessarily have him putting up another all-time great fantasy season something on the order of 83/1420/20. The greatest beneficiary of Brady's prolific stats which, as I said, are particularly noteworthy for the TD's, was Moss, who had almost half of them. Brady's numbers were:398 Comp.478 Att.4806 Yards50 TD's8 INT'sThe completions, attempts and yards are all high, but not so high that they're unreachable by that offense. There's nothing ridiculous about those numbers. (Incidentally, the attempts were only 5th in the league.) Brady, however, is not going to throw 50 TD's again, or frankly anything near it. I doubt strongly he'll throw 40 (which has only been done a handful of times in history), but maybe that will happen. If you took away a quarter of Moss's 23 TD's, he'd finish with 16 or 17 which everyone here would agree would be a great year for a WR. The point here is that reversion to the mean which is likely to happen for Brady is going to most affect Moss and his TD's, not Welker and his 9-yard completions to convert first downs. I stand by Welker having a better shot of retaining his 2007 production than Moss.

Here's the problem. Even if you drastically decrease Moss' production, lets just say for the sack of argument 75% of his 2007 production, Moss is still at 1120/17 and probably WR1 in fantasy football. If you take Welker's down by only 90% you get 1057/7, probably in the WR2 range. Sure, Moss should see the most drastic decrease on a % basis. Then again he can afford it and will still be light years ahead of Welker in fantasy terms!

IMO, this is flaVVed. Moss' biggest decrease will be in TDs. He could easily lose half of that total. That would have a much greater impact than if he lost some receptions or reciving yards. Remember, there are only 16 WR that have ever had 16 or more TD in a season. Suggesting Moss takes a plunge in his TD total is not a stretch in my book. I would be more shocked if his reception or yardage total took a huge hit.

 

[David Yudkin]

With the exception of his time in Oakland, Randy Moss has proven to be a 100/1500/15+ guy. That will likely continue. He has been the focus of pretty much every secondary he has faced since his rookie year. It really doesn't matter what scheme is used against him if he is giving 100%; he is pretty much uncoverable.Wes Welker is a good NFL posession WR who just had his career year.I know who I will bet on.

I'm not knocking Moss, but in 10 years he's hit 100 receptions twice, 1500 yards once, and 15 TD four times. He's not a lock for any of those (although I agree he's a safe bet to but up big numbers again.And while you may think we may have seen Welker's career year, I'm pretty sure we saw Moss' career you as well.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

 

[jurb26]

As between Welker and Moss, I actually have more confidence in Welker maintaining a greater percentage of his 2007 production than I do Moss.

Moss is one of the best WRs ever. He scored 17 TDs with an old Randall Cunningham and with Daunte Culpepper. Obviously he won't have 23 next year, but high teens seems likely, as does about 100 catches and 1500 yards. Welker seems to me to be a very safe bet to fall off by a much greater percentage across the board.

Let's talk fantasy points, which is as decent of a measure of overall statistical production across categories (receptions; yards; TD's) as I can think of for WR's. In standard PPR (.5/reception) leagues, Moss was the WR1 and had 356.30 points (TO was WR2 with 282.50 points), while Welker was WR10 with 233.10 points. Who do you think is more likely to get 85% of their 2007 production this year, Moss with 302.6 points (which would still beat TO's points by >20), or Welker with 198.1 points? Such production out of Moss would necessarily have him putting up another all-time great fantasy season something on the order of 83/1420/20. The greatest beneficiary of Brady's prolific stats which, as I said, are particularly noteworthy for the TD's, was Moss, who had almost half of them. Brady's numbers were:398 Comp.478 Att.4806 Yards50 TD's8 INT'sThe completions, attempts and yards are all high, but not so high that they're unreachable by that offense. There's nothing ridiculous about those numbers. (Incidentally, the attempts were only 5th in the league.) Brady, however, is not going to throw 50 TD's again, or frankly anything near it. I doubt strongly he'll throw 40 (which has only been done a handful of times in history), but maybe that will happen. If you took away a quarter of Moss's 23 TD's, he'd finish with 16 or 17 which everyone here would agree would be a great year for a WR. The point here is that reversion to the mean which is likely to happen for Brady is going to most affect Moss and his TD's, not Welker and his 9-yard completions to convert first downs. I stand by Welker having a better shot of retaining his 2007 production than Moss.

Here's the problem. Even if you drastically decrease Moss' production, lets just say for the sack of argument 75% of his 2007 production, Moss is still at 1120/17 and probably WR1 in fantasy football. If you take Welker's down by only 90% you get 1057/7, probably in the WR2 range. Sure, Moss should see the most drastic decrease on a % basis. Then again he can afford it and will still be light years ahead of Welker in fantasy terms!

IMO, this is flaVVed. Moss' biggest decrease will be in TDs. He could easily lose half of that total. That would have a much greater impact than if he lost some receptions or reciving yards. Remember, there are only 16 WR that have ever had 16 or more TD in a season. Suggesting Moss takes a plunge in his TD total is not a stretch in my book. I would be more shocked if his reception or yardage total took a huge hit.

This reasoning you have provided is more flaVVed than what I stated if you ask me. I could care less how many WRs have done the 17 TD thing before. Moss himself has done it 3 times in 10 years. Not to mention scoring 15 another time and 13 in a 13 game injury riddled season. Let's not even go into that mess that was his time in Oak. He averages over 12 TDs per season including injury riddled ones and wasted time in Oak. You can't just blanket Moss along with other WR. He has clearly proven year after year he is not just any WR. He is far better. Moss may in fact be the most dangerous weapon the modern NFL has ever seen. He has played with an elite QB only once in his career to boot. In that year, the most relevant year in this context, he set an NFL record. I don't really expect that Moss will see a 75% drop in his yardage or receptions. I think 75% is an awful high decrease to project for any player from one year to the next. I'd say 75% in regards to TDs is in order however because of the astonishing number he put up last year. That gaudy number deems a bit more decrease. Moss when motivated has consistently shown he is not only capable of scoring in the range of 17 TDs per year, but likely IMO. This isn't just some guy we have only a few years of data and sample size on. This is one of the most dominante WRs and players in NFL history and he is still in his prime.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

With the exception of his time in Oakland, Randy Moss has proven to be a 100/1500/15+ guy. That will likely continue. He has been the focus of pretty much every secondary he has faced since his rookie year. It really doesn't matter what scheme is used against him if he is giving 100%; he is pretty much uncoverable.Wes Welker is a good NFL posession WR who just had his career year.I know who I will bet on.

I'm not knocking Moss, but in 10 years he's hit 100 receptions twice, 1500 yards once, and 15 TD four times. He's not a lock for any of those (although I agree he's a safe bet to but up big numbers again.And while you may think we may have seen Welker's career year, I'm pretty sure we saw Moss' career you as well.

Moss has been in that neighborhood pretty consistently, though. He had 98 catches last year and has been over 1400 yards in 4/7 healthy non-Oakland years. He was also averaging a TD a game in 2004 until he got hurt.I agree that last year was Moss' career year, at least TD-wise. It was pretty par for the course yardage and reception-wise. His 2007 was less of an outlier than was Welker's for their respective career paths.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

 

[jurb26]

With the exception of his time in Oakland, Randy Moss has proven to be a 100/1500/15+ guy. That will likely continue. He has been the focus of pretty much every secondary he has faced since his rookie year. It really doesn't matter what scheme is used against him if he is giving 100%; he is pretty much uncoverable.

Wes Welker is a good NFL posession WR who just had his career year.

I know who I will bet on.

I'm not knocking Moss, but in 10 years he's hit 100 receptions twice, 1500 yards once, and 15 TD four times. He's not a lock for any of those (although I agree he's a safe bet to but up big numbers again.And while you may think we may have seen Welker's career year, I'm pretty sure we saw Moss' career you as well.

Nobody has said otherwise. That isn't really all that relevant to the point being made.

 

[jurb26]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

 

[David Yudkin]

With the exception of his time in Oakland, Randy Moss has proven to be a 100/1500/15+ guy. That will likely continue. He has been the focus of pretty much every secondary he has faced since his rookie year. It really doesn't matter what scheme is used against him if he is giving 100%; he is pretty much uncoverable.Wes Welker is a good NFL posession WR who just had his career year.I know who I will bet on.

I'm not knocking Moss, but in 10 years he's hit 100 receptions twice, 1500 yards once, and 15 TD four times. He's not a lock for any of those (although I agree he's a safe bet to but up big numbers again.And while you may think we may have seen Welker's career year, I'm pretty sure we saw Moss' career you as well.

Moss has been in that neighborhood pretty consistently, though. He had 98 catches last year and has been over 1400 yards in 4/7 healthy non-Oakland years. He was also averaging a TD a game in 2004 until he got hurt.I agree that last year was Moss' career year, at least TD-wise. It was pretty par for the course yardage and reception-wise. His 2007 was less of an outlier than was Welker's for their respective career paths.

I don't want to drag a Welker PS into a bunch of debating, but Welker played in Miami. That gave him the luxury of playing with Dave Wannstedt, Jim Bates, and Nick Saban as HC. He also saw passes from Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon, Daunte Culpepper (when still hurt), Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, AJ Feeley, and Jay Fiedler. I won't bother listing off the receivers, as I think we can all agree that MIS did not have anyone in the same league as Randy Moss. So long story short, Welker's enviroment in MIA was not the same as the one in NE.I don't disagree that Welker had a career year last year, but I may be inclined to disagree as to how much he loses out production wise this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Just an FYI, Moss scored 46% of NE's passing TDs last year. Based on your projections for the NE passing game, and given the assumption that Moss again scores 46% of the NE passing TDs (not a bad assumption if you ask me) that puts him at 16 TDs.

I see Moss getting a smaller % of the receiving TD as well. I would put him at 13 or 14 at the moment. So IMO, losing 10 TD is a pretty major chuck of his fantasy production.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, David, are you going to be projecting close to 400 completions and 4800 yards for Brady with decreased TDs?

I haven't done the math, but I would guess in the vicinity of 375-4500-35 (although I do think he could make it to 40 bt would not project that). I think NE will make another run at 500 points (which would still be 89 fewer points scored than last year).NE won 18 games in a row. Until teams show a way to consistently stop them, why should they change what was working? I know they lost to NYG, but few teams have the defensive personnel to effectively replicate what the Giants did in the SB.

Thanks. That is pretty much at the high end of the likely range I see them getting, but not too far off. Do you see the WR3-5, RBs and TEs accounting for a smaller piece of the pie. I like Chad Jackson to outperform 2007 Donte Stallworth, and think that he might negatively impact Welker also.

WR5 for NE last year produced 0-0-0. They only had 4 WR catch passes last year. I have been pimping Jackson since last year as a great buy low dynasty guy and a sleeper for this season. IMO Moss dips some. Welker dips some. Jackson gets what Stallworth got. Gaffney about the same. Maybe Washington gets a handful of receptions.I think the biggest factor for the offense will be how effective the defense is. If they are a lock down defense (which I don't see), then they may not pass as much (which I also don't see). Some weeks they may need to score in the 30s to win, and last year they showed over the last half of the season they would pass even more to pull out games (at the expense of the running game).