Player Spotlight: Willis McGahee (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Willis McGahee Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[JPeso]

Can Cam-Cam help Willis' numbers like he did for Brown in early 2008? Willis will reward owners in PPR leagues. Rice fans may get Turner-like numbers when Cameron was in SD, but I wouldn't expect a full-blown RBBC...yet.

290 rushes, 1,250 rush yards, 4.31 YPC, 7 rush TD

50 catches, 320 yards, 6.4 YPC, 1 TD

 

[gianmarco]

I think Cam is going to have a pretty big influence on McGahee this year. I do think we'll see Rice on the field, but not as much as some are predicting. I can see him coming in for a couple series/game and getting 6-8 carries, but it's going to be McGahee on the field for 3rd downs. McGahee's increase is going to come in the passing game.

285 carries, 4.1 ypc -- 1150 yds, 6 TDs

65 rec, 575 yds, 3 TDs

 

[Ministry of Pain]

300 carries, 1,150 yds, 6 TD, 32 receptions, 250 yds, 1 TD

 

[radballs]

280 carries, 1,100 yards rushing, 6 TDs, 40 receptions for 220 yards and 1 TD

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Willis McGahee showed me a lot last season. The Ravens were a horrible team yet he was still a productive player especially when it came to receiving passes. That was a part of his game which until last season had been lacking. The addition of Cam Cameron should only increase his role as a receiver. I don't get why people are so down on him this year.

1300 yards 8 TD 400 yards 2 TD

A good #1 running back and a great #2 running back. I like that.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

300 - 1200 - 7

40 - 280 - 1

 

[Tanner9919]

McGahee's career 3.9 YPC is pathetic, the O-line is in transition, the QB position is in flux, and with a new coaching staff, its going to take a few games to get things going..That being said, this could be a career year for McGahee. I'm not a fan of his and I don't own him in any dynasty league, but if ever there was a time for him to turn in a banner year, it's now.

he should easily catch 60-70 balls and carry the ball at least 335 times for 1306 ( 3.9 per carry).

335/1306/10 , 65/429/3

This is a Cam Cameron offense, the type that runs a guy into the ground and constantly throws the ball at the RB's ! Ronnie Brown had 39 receptions in just 7 games last season with a stagnant Miami offense that featured lousy QB play..

Rice will get his chances at some stage, he's most likely going to record Michael Turner-type backup numbers for 2008..

 

[Yitbos69]

I think his numbers go up in 2008.

300/1350/10 60/550/3

 

[Banger]

Wow, Cam Cameron seems to be the new Norv Turner. Some pretty lofty numbers in here. I loved McGahee's value bigtime last year, this year not so much. I think Rice will get the ball a bit (moreso than their lousy backups last year) and the Ravens appear to be a team in transition. I still think McGahee will be solid, 280-1120-6..50-250-1, but he'll probably end up going a little too high for my tastes...

 

[GroveDiesel]

A lot of people love this guy and every year people think he's going to break out. As a Bills fan, I was one of those guys. But it's apparent that he just doesn't have that top gear to be that guy and he just doesn't read defenses all that well either. At 26 years old with 6 seasons in the league, I don't think that he's suddenly going to turn things up a notch. I think his numbers will be about what they always are when he's healthy:

290 carries for 1140 yards and 6 TDs rushing

40 receptions for 210 yards and 1 TD receiving

 

[Todem]

Can Cam-Cam help Willis' numbers like he did for Brown in early 2008? Willis will reward owners in PPR leagues. Rice fans may get Turner-like numbers when Cameron was in SD, but I wouldn't expect a full-blown RBBC...yet. 290 rushes, 1,250 rush yards, 4.31 YPC, 7 rush TD50 catches, 320 yards, 6.4 YPC, 1 TD

I like this projection. McGahee will be a bigger factor in the passing game thus enhancing his value going forward as long as cam is around. I think you will also see the ravens getting him out in space more and people will again see his breakaway potential again. At UM Willis was an all around stud. he has not been utilized this way since college.He represents big time value IMO if you can grab him with a late 2nd or early 3rd in dynasty start ups. And he should be a top 12 back in redrafts IMO.

 

[css2373]

290 carries 1180 yds 8 TDs

60 recs 400 yds 1 TD

 

[Jason Wood]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

 

[ukshane]

I would have liked him alot better this year running behind a healthy Ogden.

 

[gianmarco]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

 

[J-Rock]

I own McGahee in both of my dynasty leagues. He is my RB1 in one and my RB2 behind LT in the other. For the record, I inherited him in both leagues when I took over someone elses roster. I didn't draft him.

I think it's pretty clear that McGahee is the focal point of the ravens offense and he will be used in both run and pass situations. I think he proved last year that he is a capable receiver. The situation reminds me a lot of Frank Gore in 2006. I'm not saying McGahee is going to put up over 2000 combined yards but he is the best player on his side of the ball and I can see him having his best season to date.

McGahee is not a boom type player. He is the model of consistency. I don't expect a huge spike in production but I do expect a reasonable increase over past seasons.

His averages per start are 83 yards rushing and .58TD. If he starts 16 games that = 1328 & 9.

I'd expect 1600 combined yards and 10 TD from McGahee this year.

 

[Todem]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

No. Plain and simple.

 

[gianmarco]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

No. Plain and simple.

If it's not, then if Ronnie Brown could do what he did behind Miami's O-line, then why should we expect much lower production from McGahee? I'm not saying he's going to be the #1 RB like Ronnie was until his injury, but he should see an increase in production from his previous #'s....

 

[Jason Wood]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

No. Plain and simple.

If it's not, then if Ronnie Brown could do what he did behind Miami's O-line, then why should we expect much lower production from McGahee? I'm not saying he's going to be the #1 RB like Ronnie was until his injury, but he should see an increase in production from his previous #'s....

The "IF/THEN" rarely works in the NFL, so I'm loathe to look at Ronnie Brown's numbers in Miami and think McGahee is due for major improvement. Either way, McGahee isn't going to be a controversial player this year. He'll be considered a last 1st, early 2nd rounder in redrafts and probably perform to that level as long as he catches as many balls as I suspect. The real question is whether Baltimore has a QB or not.

 

[Todem]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

No. Plain and simple.

If it's not, then if Ronnie Brown could do what he did behind Miami's O-line, then why should we expect much lower production from McGahee? I'm not saying he's going to be the #1 RB like Ronnie was until his injury, but he should see an increase in production from his previous #'s....

The "IF/THEN" rarely works in the NFL, so I'm loathe to look at Ronnie Brown's numbers in Miami and think McGahee is due for major improvement. Either way, McGahee isn't going to be a controversial player this year. He'll be considered a last 1st, early 2nd rounder in redrafts and probably perform to that level as long as he catches as many balls as I suspect. The real question is whether Baltimore has a QB or not.

Bingo!That is really the huge "X" factor. Will Boller finally show some week to week consistency? Or are they going to throw Flacco to the wolves and let him learn right away. I think the prior will happen and Flacco sits for at least half the year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

McGahee was a top10 RB last season and I felt he lived up to his middle 2nd round pick in most leagues. Pretty consistent but nothing real flashy either.

In non PPR leagues McGahee posted 11, 16, 12, 13, 13, 13, 17, 12, 13, 18, 12, and 21...those were his 1st 12 weeks of the season. He also caught 43 balls last year, a career year.

McGahee is getting a lot of press as the Ravens are reportedly moving towards a West Coast type offense...almost anything would be an improvement over what they have done lately.

I look for McGahee to have 288-1250-8TD, and 35-220-TD

1,470 total yds and 9 TD

 

[Coeur de Lion]

What you see is what you get with McGahee -- solid, unspectacular production. IMO, any benefit gained by the addition of Cam Cameron's offense will be offset by the fact that Ray Rice is far more likely to siphon off production than was Musa Smith.

290 carries for 1180 yards, 35 catches for 200 yards, 8 total TDs

 

[rzrback77]

Lots of variables when you consider Willis McGahee for 08. New Head Coach and new OC, which definitely positively impact McGahee. However, there are offensive line questions and the new system could take time to rev up. I will lean toward believing in McGahee as an RB and that the uptick from the new wide open system is more positive than the OL is negative. I will also discount the Ray Rice impact as McGahee had 294 of the toal 404 carries last year and will not expect Rice to have more than 25% of the rush opportunities. The team rushes will likely decrease though as the passing attack gets more chanes.

McGahee had a career high 43 reception last year and I look for this to rise slightly in 08. I think that the new system will allow him to equal his YPC average also. I don't expect a lot of TDs however everything else looks good for Willis.

280 carries 1150 yards 4.1 ypc with 50 receptions for 360 yards 7.2 ypc and 7 total TDs

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Lots of variables when you consider Willis McGahee for 08. New Head Coach and new OC, which definitely positively impact McGahee. However, there are offensive line questions and the new system could take time to rev up. I will lean toward believing in McGahee as an RB and that the uptick from the new wide open system is more positive than the OL is negative. I will also discount the Ray Rice impact as McGahee had 294 of the toal 404 carries last year and will not expect Rice to have more than 25% of the rush opportunities. The team rushes will likely decrease though as the passing attack gets more chanes.McGahee had a career high 43 reception last year and I look for this to rise slightly in 08. I think that the new system will allow him to equal his YPC average also. I don't expect a lot of TDs however everything else looks good for Willis.280 carries 1150 yards 4.1 ypc with 50 receptions for 360 yards 7.2 ypc and 7 total TDs

 

[The Ref]

My PPR radar is up after reading what most are saying here. This will bear watching in the preseason. If he gets 50+ catches, he will be very valuable in PPR.

 

[Banger]

My PPR radar is up after reading what most are saying here. This will bear watching in the preseason. If he gets 50+ catches, he will be very valuable in PPR.

I certainly would. I posted in a couple of the R. Brown threads the impact that Cam had on Brown's receiving #'s. It was pretty startling....after getting 32, 33 receptions his first 2 years he had 39 in 7 games for nearly 400 yards which extrapolates to 89 catch's and 914 receiving yards. Now I'm sure he would have kept up with that pace but even at 1/2 the pace he was on you're looking at 65-639. Brown's rushing numbers weren't the reason he improved so much last year, it was the ridiculous receiving numbers.Now the big question is whether Cam will continue that trend in Balt. Did they pass so much last year to Brown because he was their only decent player and they had horrible qb's? very possible. Is that situation that much different than Baltimore though?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Solid performer last season, one of the earlier picks that didn't disappoint. Baltimore should give Willis McGahee more of the same, a large workload but don't be surprised if as the season wears on, that Ray Rice sees a few extra carries per game.

1150 yards rushing and 8 tD's , 40 receptions for 290 yards and 1 Td.

 

[brock]

300 carries, 1,150 yds, 6 TD, 32 receptions, 250 yds, 1 TD

McGahee was a top10 RB last season and I felt he lived up to his middle 2nd round pick in most leagues. Pretty consistent but nothing real flashy either. In non PPR leagues McGahee posted 11, 16, 12, 13, 13, 13, 17, 12, 13, 18, 12, and 21...those were his 1st 12 weeks of the season. He also caught 43 balls last year, a career year. McGahee is getting a lot of press as the Ravens are reportedly moving towards a West Coast type offense...almost anything would be an improvement over what they have done lately. I look for McGahee to have 288-1250-8TD, and 35-220-TD1,470 total yds and 9 TD

in 3 hours he jumps 2 tds! whats he up to now?

 

[travdogg]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

No. Plain and simple.

If it's not, then if Ronnie Brown could do what he did behind Miami's O-line, then why should we expect much lower production from McGahee? I'm not saying he's going to be the #1 RB like Ronnie was until his injury, but he should see an increase in production from his previous #'s....

Brown is a much more talented back

 

[gianmarco]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

No. Plain and simple.

If it's not, then if Ronnie Brown could do what he did behind Miami's O-line, then why should we expect much lower production from McGahee? I'm not saying he's going to be the #1 RB like Ronnie was until his injury, but he should see an increase in production from his previous #'s....

Brown is a much more talented back

That's a matter of opinion....

 

[travdogg]

I think this really comes down to the offensive line. Perhaps my judgment is clouded by the fact one of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and DECIDEDLY depressed/disappointed about the state of the Ravens o-line. If he's right (not saying he is, too early to say), I'm not sure that this "Cam Cameron" factor people are talking up is really legitimate. McGahee is one of those guys I know, personally, I would never grab in the 1st round even if my projections screamed he should be. But I would scoop him up in the 2nd without hesitation. It's a quandary.

Is their O-line that much worse off than Miami's was last year? I'm just asking as I really don't know.....

No. Plain and simple.

If it's not, then if Ronnie Brown could do what he did behind Miami's O-line, then why should we expect much lower production from McGahee? I'm not saying he's going to be the #1 RB like Ronnie was until his injury, but he should see an increase in production from his previous #'s....

Brown is a much more talented back

That's a matter of opinion....

Well, McGahee averages about half a yard less per carry than Brown despite being on better teams. Buffalo thought so much of McGahee's talent that they gave him away for two 3rd rounders. I'll say:

1100-8 rushing

40-300-1 receiving

Also, if he gets hurt or starts slow, I think that could easily be a committee between him and Rice.

A lot of people are going to be disappointed if they think McGahee will put up similar production to what Brown was on pace for last year.

 

[Coach Pantusso]

I like RRice in the long-term, but in the short term, I don't think you are going to see an appreciable cut (percentage-wise) into McGahee's opportunities. The BAL offense should get a few more plays this year than they did last year by utilizing the RB out of the backfield for easy gains in the passing game. Whoever is at QB should be able to throw the ball to McGahee a mere few yards away...thus improving his standing in PPR leagues especially.

Keep in mind that BAL had a 55/45 pass to run ratio last season...if they get a few more first downs and keep the DEF off of the field even more than they did last season while balancing the play-calling a little bit, it is not unrealistic to have McGahee move into the 325-350 carry range.

The question for me is whether this team stays close enough to keep running the ball, and if not, does McGahee stay on the field in passing situations? One way or the other, I don't see him giving ground to another RB on this team on 3rd down. So, either the DEF holds up and they run more than last year, increasing his workload on the ground...or...they fall behind and he gets more targets as a pass-catcher. Either way (esp. in PPR), it is not unforseeable to think there should be an uptick in his numbers. I see the former (more than the latter) being a more likely scenario (in early June), so:

Rush: 335-1406-9

Rec: 61-457-1

Total: 1863-10

No, I do not think that he is as good as the numbers would indicate, but I DO think he will perform well this year in a "work-horse" role. Some may like RRice to come in and steal more carries, which I understand, but disagree with at this time.

The other thing to remember in drafting McGahee (if I am right about him getting the lion's share of the carries) is that he is one of the few RB that has a certain back-up that you can handcuff to him while a lot of other options may result in a RBBC if there were an injury to take place. For instance, if drafting in the 10-12 slot, you can have McGahee at the end of the first and wait to get RRice to back him up (RB54)...or...you can select MLynch or RGrant and spend a higher pick on a 3rd or 4th tier RB (CTaylor-RB34) to start in the event of an injury to avoid RBBC (as neither of those players has a true "handcuff" at this time)

Then again...I liked THenry this time last year