Players I have switched gears on (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Peyton Manning - looked like the same old Peyton Manning and took some good shots too

Eric Decker - this is mostly because of Peyton, I had my doubts with Peyton's neck condition

DeAngelo Williams - Could be a nice early season play w/Stewart injury

Marshawn Lynch - With Wilson looking awesome I have upgraded all Seattle players, although Lynch is still my only early round play

New England Offense - Downgraded, discussed ad nauseum

Nate Washington/Chris Johnson/Locker - Titan's offense looked like it actually had an offseason to prepare

Demarco Murray - Looked strong, real strong, I have him almost even with Chris Johnson



MJD - Per recent commments, I'm convinced he'll be coming into camp within a few weeks and will be welcomed by the organization. Might miss week one.

 

[Clifford]

Why downgrade NE? Must have missed this nauseating discussion.

 

[ponchsox]

I'm not buying the downgrade NE thing. Perhaps they are being overhyped a little in the preseason, but give this offense a couple of games to start firing on all cylinders and they are going to be a force. They do have some question marks on the offensive line but I think they will be serviceable enough when they get some time together.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not buying the downgrade NE thing.

Most people aren't.:sharkmove:

 

[LHUCKS]

Why downgrade NE? Must have missed this nauseating discussion.

My link

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

How high on Lynch are you?

 

[beavers]

 

[Donnybrook]

I really reached for Demarious Thomas. I had visions of him being the new Marvin Harrison. Starting to have some doubts.

 

[LHUCKS]

How high on Lynch are you?

I have him as the 11th ranked RB.

 

[Modog814]

Peyton Manning - looked like the same old Peyton Manning and took some good shots too

Eric Decker - this is mostly because of Peyton, I had my doubts with Peyton's neck condition

DeAngelo Williams - Could be a nice early season play w/Stewart injury

Marshawn Lynch - With Wilson looking awesome I have upgraded all Seattle players, although Lynch is still my only early round play

New England Offense - Downgraded, discussed ad nauseum

Nate Washington/Chris Johnson/Locker - Titan's offense looked like it actually had an offseason to prepare

Demarco Murray - Looked strong, real strong, I have him almost even with Chris Johnson

Agree with Peyton. I got him as my starter in FFPC earlier yesterday and saw the first series and got worried immediately. By the end of the game, I felt like I might just get old peyton numbers.Agree with New England. I know Yudkin has address the oline a bunch, but it would just make me so nervous to see Brady get hit as many times as he seems to be getting hit this pre-season.

Like Locker this year.

Disagree with Murray. Didn't think he looked great at all. I stand by my sentiment that he's a guy that's only going to get what is blocked for him. I think the announcer must have said "Murray dancing in the backfield" 3 or 4 times last game. I'll pass at his price tag.

 

[Clifford]

Read some of your reasoning and it seems like regression to the mean is about it. Pretty weak IMO. This team has only gotten better since last year. I doubt OLine will be that much of a problem as quick as Brady gets rid of the ball.

 

[Donnybrook]

How high on Lynch are you?

I have him as the 11th ranked RB.

IMO, Turbin looked good enough to steal touches.

 

[LHUCKS]

Read some of your reasoning and it seems like regression to the mean is about it. Pretty weak IMO. This team has only gotten better since last year. I doubt OLine will be that much of a problem as quick as Brady gets rid of the ball.

we'll agree to disagree...I realize I'm in the minority. Half of the planet has some emotional investment in the Pats offense.

 

[SSOG]

Read some of your reasoning and it seems like regression to the mean is about it. Pretty weak IMO. This team has only gotten better since last year. I doubt OLine will be that much of a problem as quick as Brady gets rid of the ball.

we'll agree to disagree...I realize I'm in the minority. Half of the planet has some emotional investment in the Pats offense.

Not everyone who disagrees with you is biased. Some of us just understand regression to the mean better than you do. I get it- New England is likely to regress. Why are they more likely to regress than the other top tier offenses? Why are some of the second tier offenses supposed to beat regression and improve?If you factor in nothing but regression, you know who is most likely to be best in 2012? It's whoever was best in 2011. There's no such thing as selective regression.

 

[Soulfly3]

Read some of your reasoning and it seems like regression to the mean is about it. Pretty weak IMO. This team has only gotten better since last year. I doubt OLine will be that much of a problem as quick as Brady gets rid of the ball.

we'll agree to disagree...I realize I'm in the minority. Half of the planet has some emotional investment in the Pats offense.

Not everyone who disagrees with you is biased. Some of us just understand regression to the mean better than you do. I get it- New England is likely to regress. Why are they more likely to regress than the other top tier offenses? Why are some of the second tier offenses supposed to beat regression and improve?If you factor in nothing but regression, you know who is most likely to be best in 2012? It's whoever was best in 2011. There's no such thing as selective regression.

PWNED

 

[CentralPA]

I really reached for Demarious Thomas. I had visions of him being the new Marvin Harrison. Starting to have some doubts.

I drafted him in the 5th but I thought to myself after that pick "watch Decker end up being the guy". It's just one preseason game but I didn't like seeing Decker get everything thrown his way yesterday.

 

[FDC]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.

I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

 

[Modog814]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

This pretty much hits it on the head. Personally, I just think the projections most have for the Pats are WAY too high. I could see them happening, but see them more as a ceiling than a realistic estimate. As a result, those huge Brady numbers are trickling down to the receivers, making them for me, untouchable, including Lloyd, who I think people will have buyers regret on by week 5 or 6.

 

[SSOG]

Pats have topped 6300 yards of offense during 3 of Brady's last 4 seasons. Their point total last year was the third highest over that span. It's not like New England's production last year was way out of line with their historical averages.

 

[Shutout]

Pats have topped 6300 yards of offense during 3 of Brady's last 4 seasons. Their point total last year was the third highest over that span. It's not like New England's production last year was way out of line with their historical averages.

You are killing it on the NE topic.Nicely done.

 

[Chaka]

How high on Lynch are you?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think the aversion to Peyton had grown to ridiculous proportions. While I was not on board with using a 4th/5th rounder on him which seemed to be where his ADP started off at after the draft, he's dropping to 6th/7th round range now. It's there that he does represent value.

Lynch is also a funny one...prior to his arrest, he was considered a late 1st round value. He gets the DUI and drops to late 2nd. But it's pretty much agreed that any sanctions on him come next year if at all, but he hasn't gained his pre-arrest value back...

 

[FDC]

Pats have topped 6300 yards of offense during 3 of Brady's last 4 seasons. Their point total last year was the third highest over that span. It's not like New England's production last year was way out of line with their historical averages.

Who said it was?

 

[Sweetness_34]

So none of you are worried about Lynch having a fluke year last year. He will be seeing 8 man fronts with the rookie starting at QB and while he does have the beast mode in him can he survive that without being injured and the fact that the O will not see many red zone chances? And even when they are in red zone Wilson will get some running TDs.... I am not touching Lynch at his ADP

 

[Modog814]

Pats have topped 6300 yards of offense during 3 of Brady's last 4 seasons. Their point total last year was the third highest over that span. It's not like New England's production last year was way out of line with their historical averages.

I'm not saying that New England is going to flop. I think they run the ball better and a little more often this year. Bellicek is a guy that seems to like to stay ahead of the curve, so while teams are copying the Pats and Saints and Packers in offense, and defenses respond with small, quicker guys, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bellicek start pounding that defense a little more. I expect their defense to be a little better. But at the same time I don't expect a repeat of a +17 TO margin. All these things I think limits the Pats offensive production a bit (not a huge amount, but just enough to matter).With the addition of Lloyd, people seem to be projecting increased offensive stats. I don't see Lloyd as that important of a role on the team. He'll get some catches, even some long TD's, but the offense will still run through the 2 TE's and Welker. All combined I see a decrease in NE offense, while others are seeing an increase, and adding those up, it makes the NE's offense undraftable to me. It's not that I don't think Brady/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez are going to be good, it's just the people projecting Brady for 5000/50 are going to take these players earlier than I'm willing to.

 

[LHUCKS]

Not everyone who disagrees with you is biased. Some of us just understand regression to the mean better than you do.

I have a minor in mathematics, but I don't understand a high school mathematics topic. Keep up the good work here SSOG.

 

[LHUCKS]

Pats have topped 6300 yards of offense during 3 of Brady's last 4 seasons. Their point total last year was the third highest over that span. It's not like New England's production last year was way out of line with their historical averages.

I'm not saying that New England is going to flop.

Exactly, I wish the pro NE crowd would quit making this exaggeration. This discussion is about value and ADP, not falling of a cliff statistically.

 

[pantherclub]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

Bradys ADP is 5 in a 12 teamer. How can you not "trust" that?

 

[pantherclub]

Pats have topped 6300 yards of offense during 3 of Brady's last 4 seasons. Their point total last year was the third highest over that span. It's not like New England's production last year was way out of line with their historical averages.

I'm not saying that New England is going to flop. I think they run the ball better and a little more often this year. Bellicek is a guy that seems to like to stay ahead of the curve, so while teams are copying the Pats and Saints and Packers in offense, and defenses respond with small, quicker guys, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bellicek start pounding that defense a little more. I expect their defense to be a little better. But at the same time I don't expect a repeat of a +17 TO margin. All these things I think limits the Pats offensive production a bit (not a huge amount, but just enough to matter).With the addition of Lloyd, people seem to be projecting increased offensive stats. I don't see Lloyd as that important of a role on the team. He'll get some catches, even some long TD's, but the offense will still run through the 2 TE's and Welker. All combined I see a decrease in NE offense, while others are seeing an increase, and adding those up, it makes the NE's offense undraftable to me. It's not that I don't think Brady/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez are going to be good, it's just the people projecting Brady for 5000/50 are going to take these players earlier than I'm willing to.

Their line isnt good enough to pound it out. Bill B has Brady, 2 star TE's and a star possession wr. I am certain he is going to utilize his strengths.

 

[FDC]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

Bradys ADP is 5 in a 12 teamer. How can you not "trust" that?

Have you seen any NE games and Brady's protection issues this preseason? I just have a hard time swallowing trusting my 5th overall pick on that.

 

[pantherclub]

Lhucks arent you predicting Brady at 4,600/36?

 

[pantherclub]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

Bradys ADP is 5 in a 12 teamer. How can you not "trust" that?

Have you seen any NE games and Brady's protection issues this preseason? I just have a hard time swallowing trusting my 5th overall pick on that.

A. Its preseason dude. Thats a sure fire way to deep six your team if you go solely on preseason. B. Whats the safer option at 5 then?

 

[David Yudkin]

I will ask this of the masses. Of the big passing teams last year, what's chaged with them?

GB: Did they add receivers? No. Did they add a high profile RB. Yes, Benson.

NO: Did they add any receivers? No, they lost Meachem. Did they add a high profile RB? No. They also have their head coach suspended.

NYG: Did they add any receivers? Yes and no. They lost Manningham but added Randle. Did they add a high profile RB? Yes, Wilson.

DET: Did they add any receivers? No. Did they add a high profile RB? No.

Now look at NE . . .

Did they add any receivers. Yes, Lloyd and Gaffney. Did they add a high profile RB? Not really (unless we count Demps). But they lost BJGE. Also added McDaniels as OC.

Of the Big 5 passing teams, NE is the only one that appears to have positioned things more to benefit the pass than the other teams did. So IMO, even if they regress some, they should regress less than the other teams will.

As for the OL in NE, all they need is time to get into game shape and some playing time together. If people want to knock them as not being healthy, I won't argue that. But they are all expected to be fine. I don't don't see any of the OL guys as being long term issues and they should get better over time not worse.

 

[LHUCKS]

Lhucks arent you predicting Brady at 4,600/36?

I have him projected at 4400 and 36.Which means he is not the #5 most valuable player per my ranking system for a 12 team standard league. 1/2/3

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I will ask this of the masses. Of the big passing teams last year, what's chaged with them?GB: Did they add receivers? No. Did they add a high profile RB. Yes, Benson.NO: Did they add any receivers? No, they lost Meachem. Did they add a high profile RB? No. They also have their head coach suspended.NYG: Did they add any receivers? Yes and no. They lost Manningham but added Randle. Did they add a high profile RB? Yes, Wilson.DET: Did they add any receivers? No. Did they add a high profile RB? No.Now look at NE . . .Did they add any receivers. Yes, Lloyd and Gaffney. Did they add a high profile RB? Not really (unless we count Demps). But they lost BJGE. Also added McDaniels as OC.Of the Big 5 passing teams, NE is the only one that appears to have positioned things more to benefit the pass than the other teams did. So IMO, even if they regress some, they should regress less than the other teams will.As for the OL in NE, all they need is time to get into game shape and some playing time together. If people want to knock them as not being healthy, I won't argue that. But they are all expected to be fine. I don't don't see any of the OL guys as being long term issues and they should get better over time not worse.

benson's high profile? the guy is this close to baggin groceries. I dont think it hampers the GB passing game one bit

 

[FDC]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

Bradys ADP is 5 in a 12 teamer. How can you not "trust" that?

Have you seen any NE games and Brady's protection issues this preseason? I just have a hard time swallowing trusting my 5th overall pick on that.

A. Its preseason dude. Thats a sure fire way to deep six your team if you go solely on preseason. B. Whats the safer option at 5 then?

Some preseason analysis is more valuable than others. Its not like NE is sandbagging their protection in preseason and risking Brady's health. Rodgers or Calvin should be there at 5

 

[pantherclub]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

Bradys ADP is 5 in a 12 teamer. How can you not "trust" that?

Have you seen any NE games and Brady's protection issues this preseason? I just have a hard time swallowing trusting my 5th overall pick on that.

A. Its preseason dude. Thats a sure fire way to deep six your team if you go solely on preseason. B. Whats the safer option at 5 then?

Some preseason analysis is more valuable than others. Its not like NE is sandbagging their protection in preseason and risking Brady's health. Rodgers or Calvin should be there at 5

If thats the case then yeah those 2 are good options as well. At 5, or any position for that matter I would either take Calvin or one of the top 3 qb's.

 

[Cyclones]

So none of you are worried about Lynch having a fluke year last year. He will be seeing 8 man fronts with the rookie starting at QB and while he does have the beast mode in him can he survive that without being injured and the fact that the O will not see many red zone chances? And even when they are in red zone Wilson will get some running TDs.... I am not touching Lynch at his ADP

I still think Lynch is one of the safer backs in the league after the big 3 are gone. He is not likely to receive any suspension until at least after the season ends, he gets every red zone carry, he was near the league lead last year in broken tackles and yards after contact, he was the only guy to top 100 yards on SF last year, etc etc. Add to all that he doesnt have many miles on his legs for his age and it makes him a very safe pick in my opinion. Do I take him ahead of the big 3, CJ, DMC? No, but give me Lynch over Forte (good luck scoring TDs with Bush around,) Gore, ADP, Bradshaw, Mathews, Murray, etc. He finished RB5 in my league last year (non PPR) despite the fact that he had a miserable start and he missed a game. No reason to think he can't duplicate that.

 

[SSOG]

Not everyone who disagrees with you is biased. Some of us just understand regression to the mean better than you do.

I have a minor in mathematics, but I don't understand a high school mathematics topic. Keep up the good work here SSOG.

Sure thing, good buddy.

 

[Modog814]

Pats have topped 6300 yards of offense during 3 of Brady's last 4 seasons. Their point total last year was the third highest over that span. It's not like New England's production last year was way out of line with their historical averages.

I'm not saying that New England is going to flop. I think they run the ball better and a little more often this year. Bellicek is a guy that seems to like to stay ahead of the curve, so while teams are copying the Pats and Saints and Packers in offense, and defenses respond with small, quicker guys, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bellicek start pounding that defense a little more. I expect their defense to be a little better. But at the same time I don't expect a repeat of a +17 TO margin. All these things I think limits the Pats offensive production a bit (not a huge amount, but just enough to matter).With the addition of Lloyd, people seem to be projecting increased offensive stats. I don't see Lloyd as that important of a role on the team. He'll get some catches, even some long TD's, but the offense will still run through the 2 TE's and Welker. All combined I see a decrease in NE offense, while others are seeing an increase, and adding those up, it makes the NE's offense undraftable to me. It's not that I don't think Brady/Welker/Gronk/Hernandez are going to be good, it's just the people projecting Brady for 5000/50 are going to take these players earlier than I'm willing to.

Their line isnt good enough to pound it out. Bill B has Brady, 2 star TE's and a star possession wr. I am certain he is going to utilize his strengths.

I'm not saying they are going to become a 600 carry team. But if the DE's are constantly rushing up the outside, and LB's are dropping back in coverage, it's not far fetched that he takes advantage of it. Maybe instead of 612 pass attempts to 438 rushing attempts, you get 575 pass attempts and 480 rushing attempts.

 

[David Yudkin]

benson's high profile? the guy is this close to baggin groceries. I dont think it hampers the GB passing game one bit

In other threads, some people have him with 300 carries almsot etched in stone. He's averaged 20 carries a game the past 3 years. The entire GB RB corps accounted for that combined last year. IMO, if Benson is even an average back, that may take away some passing attempts (provided they use him as a work horse back).

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Not everyone who disagrees with you is biased. Some of us just understand regression to the mean better than you do.

I have a minor in mathematics, but I don't understand a high school mathematics topic. Keep up the good work here SSOG.

Ooof.

 

[Captain Hook]

I'm with Lhucks on NE and my analysis has nothing to do with regression.I just don't trust Brady, Gronk and the like at their current ADP with the issues I have seen. Lloyd is the only PAT I am close to drafting and I'm holding back on him until the 5th. I will never doubt their upside though.

Bradys ADP is 5 in a 12 teamer. How can you not "trust" that?

Have you seen any NE games and Brady's protection issues this preseason? I just have a hard time swallowing trusting my 5th overall pick on that.

Brady got hit a lot in pre-season games last year too .... How did he do last year? AND he has more weapons this year (not just Lloyd but Hernandez ready to go Week 1)

 

[Captain Hook]

Peyton Manning - looked like the same old Peyton Manning and took some good shots too

Eric Decker - this is mostly because of Peyton, I had my doubts with Peyton's neck condition

DeAngelo Williams - Could be a nice early season play w/Stewart injury

Marshawn Lynch - With Wilson looking awesome I have upgraded all Seattle players, although Lynch is still my only early round play

New England Offense - Downgraded, discussed ad nauseum

Nate Washington/Chris Johnson/Locker - Titan's offense looked like it actually had an offseason to prepare

Demarco Murray - Looked strong, real strong, I have him almost even with Chris Johnson



MJD - Per recent commments, I'm convinced he'll be coming into camp within a few weeks and will be welcomed by the organization. Might miss week one.

HUCKS

Lynch was taken at 4.02 in a twelve team, $, PPR league on Saturday - a steal at that price

Murray went at 2.03 however which I think is too early

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

So none of you are worried about Lynch having a fluke year last year. He will be seeing 8 man fronts with the rookie starting at QB and while he does have the beast mode in him can he survive that without being injured and the fact that the O will not see many red zone chances? And even when they are in red zone Wilson will get some running TDs.... I am not touching Lynch at his ADP

I still think Lynch is one of the safer backs in the league after the big 3 are gone. He is not likely to receive any suspension until at least after the season ends, he gets every red zone carry, he was near the league lead last year in broken tackles and yards after contact, he was the only guy to top 100 yards on SF last year, etc etc. Add to all that he doesnt have many miles on his legs for his age and it makes him a very safe pick in my opinion. Do I take him ahead of the big 3, CJ, DMC? No, but give me Lynch over Forte (good luck scoring TDs with Bush around,) Gore, ADP, Bradshaw, Mathews, Murray, etc. He finished RB5 in my league last year (non PPR) despite the fact that he had a miserable start and he missed a game. No reason to think he can't duplicate that.

He was also playing for a payday last year. He got the money. My bet is that he'll regress to the same guy that Buffalo was happy to send out of town.2011 saw him set (or tie) career highs in games played, carries, rushing yards, yards from scrimmage and TDs. Look back at his last 3 years with Buffalo. He averaged under 3.7 yards/carry and scored 8 TDs in 29 games.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

benson's high profile? the guy is this close to baggin groceries. I dont think it hampers the GB passing game one bit

In other threads, some people have him with 300 carries almsot etched in stone. He's averaged 20 carries a game the past 3 years. The entire GB RB corps accounted for that combined last year. IMO, if Benson is even an average back, that may take away some passing attempts (provided they use him as a work horse back).

There is a non-zero chance that Ridley and/or Vereen are better than Benson.Also, a full camp and last year's experience for Randall Cobb bolsters Green Bay's corps. Also, Rodgers is more likely to put up rushing stats than Brady is to run for 100+ yards and 3 TDs again.

 

[tjnc09]

Disagree with Murray. Didn't think he looked great at all. I stand by my sentiment that he's a guy that's only going to get what is blocked for him. I think the announcer must have said "Murray dancing in the backfield" 3 or 4 times last game. I'll pass at his price tag.

Agree - that OL is putrid. I don't know who he has looked good against. St Louis - one of the worst defenses vs the rush? No thanks to his 1st/2nd round ADP.

 

[duaneok66]

LHUCKS started a NE thread already - can you guys leave all that talk over there please?? thank you. I don't understand why we have to read about the exact same thing on two different threads.

 

[sjdogs]

So none of you are worried about Lynch having a fluke year last year. He will be seeing 8 man fronts with the rookie starting at QB and while he does have the beast mode in him can he survive that without being injured and the fact that the O will not see many red zone chances? And even when they are in red zone Wilson will get some running TDs.... I am not touching Lynch at his ADP

I still think Lynch is one of the safer backs in the league after the big 3 are gone. He is not likely to receive any suspension until at least after the season ends, he gets every red zone carry, he was near the league lead last year in broken tackles and yards after contact, he was the only guy to top 100 yards on SF last year, etc etc. Add to all that he doesnt have many miles on his legs for his age and it makes him a very safe pick in my opinion. Do I take him ahead of the big 3, CJ, DMC? No, but give me Lynch over Forte (good luck scoring TDs with Bush around,) Gore, ADP, Bradshaw, Mathews, Murray, etc. He finished RB5 in my league last year (non PPR) despite the fact that he had a miserable start and he missed a game. No reason to think he can't duplicate that.

BINGOLove me some lynchfeel same way.

 

[the spanker]

Disagree with Murray. Didn't think he looked great at all. I stand by my sentiment that he's a guy that's only going to get what is blocked for him. I think the announcer must have said "Murray dancing in the backfield" 3 or 4 times last game. I'll pass at his price tag.

Agree - that OL is putrid. I don't know who he has looked good against. St Louis - one of the worst defenses vs the rush? No thanks to his 1st/2nd round ADP.

Um in non-PPR I can see your point but in PPR? That makes him a 2nd round pick. He's a 3-down back in an explosive O who will get all the luv at the stripe.