Players I'm just not buying... (1 Viewer)

[Modog814]

Figured I'd start a list of one player at each position that I'm just not buying into the hype/love and think people who draft them will feel cheated at the end of the year.

QB: Cam Newton

The thought of having a dual threat QB is a nice one, but I think it's too inconsitent and adds an additional injury risk. I saw what he did last year, but I also saw what Vick did 2 years ago. Newton came out on fire last year, but after the first 4 games or so his passing was pretty average. And the last several games of the season we saw the RB's become way more involved in the Goal Line game as Carolina tried to save their qb from additional punishment. I think we see Newton actually become a better QB this year, but his stats regress as teams now had a whole offseason to study tape on him. I just can't see spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on this guy. Projection: 3700/24/16 and 631/5 rushing.

Bonus Selection: Robert Griffin III

I think he suffers as teams will use the same plan they develop to stop Newton on him. He won't have the "surprise" element that Newton got and Defenses will have a full training camp so they won't be caught off-guard.

RB: DeMarco Murray

This was a tough one to pick because I have a handful of RB's not living up to their ADP, but they are all still pretty close to it. That said, I went with Murray because I feel you may have someone that is going to look at last years stats and overpay for him. I don't think he's an RB1. Last year he averaged 5.5 ypc, but it's an inflated 5.5 mostly due to a 91 yard run he had against St. Louis. Now, I'm not saying to discount it completely, but because he only had 163 carries, it added a disproportionate amount to his ypc total (in fact .53 of the 5.5 can be attributed to that run). The other concern is the lack of RZ rushes and his lack of success on them. He touched the ball 21 times in the RZ last year but only converted those into 2 TD's. 19 of those times were in between weeks 6 and 12 (when he was the lead back), that's less thand 3 times a game average. On top of that, Dallas had the 9th highest pass to run ratio inside the red zone.

Honorable Mentions: Charles, Forte and ADP

All three I think fail to live up to their draft positions as they recover from season ending injuries. Charles and Forte both have new faces to "share the load" and ADP will probably be eased back into things.

WR: Brandon Lloyd

This was probably the easiest one for me to pick. I'm not sure when this guy became Jerry Rice but I must of have missed it. I think the truth is this guy has made a name by being the only viable receiving option on his team and stockpiling the targets. He's had 303 targets over the last 2 years and managed to turn that into 147 receptions and 2414 yards and 16 TD's. People see those numbers and that he's going to play with a "real" QB now and they are letting their imaginations get away from them. He finished as the #1 WR in 2010 thanks to a gaudy unsustainable 18.8 ypc (thanks to 9 40+ yard catches) and 11 TD's. Both career highs and both numbers he hasn't come close to replicating. Now he goes to a situation where he has a hall of fame QB tossing him the ball. However, is the situation that great? He goes from being the clear cut first option on nearly every pass play to being possible the 4th option. The Pats threw the ball 612 times last year, 75.49% of those passes when to Welker, Gronkowski or Hernandez (and that number could be higher because Hernandez missed 2 games). So where are Lloyds targets coming from?

New England now has 6 players who had 97+ targets last year. Even if Brady throws 600+ times again (which has only happened 12 times in the past 10 years, 4 by Brees) the pie would still be too small for everyone to get theres. Now, I can see some of Welkers going to Lloyds, but I think the TE's stay pretty much the same. Most of Branches will go to Lloyd, but don't forget that they also signed Gaffney this offseason and have Stallworth who played decently for them down the stretch, neither of those 2 will be fantasy relevant most likely, but they will take up some precious targets. In the end I just don't see Lloyd getting much more than 100 targets and with his sub 50% catch rate and reliance on deep balls it will lead to some disappointed and frustrated owners. Projection: 57/732/4

TE: Vernon Davis

Now I like Vernon Davis, I think his situation just may have gotten worse despite my belief that Harbaugh allows Alex Smith to take the training wheels off this year. The addition of Randy Moss will open up the underneath, which I think Crabtree actually takes advantage of as Smith will try to push the ball more down the field. Also TD opportunities could become a concern since SF ranks 27th in terms of pass/run ratio in the red zone and Davis only had 9 RZ targets last year but did managed to convert 5 of them. Projections: 52/574/4

Which players aren't you buying?

 

[Late225]

Agree with Charles/ADP - usually takes two years to fully heal. My guess is they'll disappoint this year and be great buy low candidates next year.

Disagree with Murray. Even if you discount that long run, a 4.0 YPC average is still good and he's the lead back on a high scoring offense. I think he outperforms his ADP.

Also disagree with Brandon Lloyd. ADP of WR20 isn't crazy. If his upside is Randy Moss #'s as a Patriot, I'll take the risk, plus he's been WR#1 before with a much lesser QB. I don't really care about targets, 1 TD bomb can give a week's worth of fantasy #'s.

 

[rizzler]

MJD

Holla atcha boy, playaz!!!!!

 

[Modog814]

Agree with Charles/ADP - usually takes two years to fully heal. My guess is they'll disappoint this year and be great buy low candidates next year.

Disagree with Murray. Even if you discount that long run, a 4.0 YPC average is still good and he's the lead back on a high scoring offense. I think he outperforms his ADP.

Also disagree with Brandon Lloyd. ADP of WR20 isn't crazy. If his upside is Randy Moss #'s as a Patriot, I'll take the risk, plus he's been WR#1 before with a much lesser QB. I don't really care about targets, 1 TD bomb can give a week's worth of fantasy #'s.

Yeah, not totally discounting Murray, as I said it was hard to pick a RB because even the ones I think won't perform to their ADP, I think they still come close. I have Murray as a high RB2, I put him on this list mainly because I think someone is going to pay a premium for his "5.5 ypc" that I'm not willing to pay.

As for Lloyd, I expect a ton of disagreements with him. I really just don't think his upside is anywhere close to Randy Moss #'s as a Patriot. Remember, their was no Gronkowski or Hernandez on that Moss team. Personally, I think WR20 is probably his ceiling, so an ADP of WR20 is pretty crazy to me.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Any Patriot RB in first half on draft. BB has a long history of using an RRBC approach. Then factor in the game the Patriots play with the IR it is a hadache I am not willing to deal with.

Best---one hit away from being done; smells like another RRBC situation

Somwhat agree with Cam. Soph jinx, defenses will be more complex with a full offseason and geared to stop Cam.

Agree with Lloyd and AP.

AJGreen for the same reasons as Cam plus lack of WR quality on Bengals will allow defenses to roll coverage to Green.

 

[David Yudkin]

WR: Brandon LloydThis was probably the easiest one for me to pick. I'm not sure when this guy became Jerry Rice but I must of have missed it. I think the truth is this guy has made a name by being the only viable receiving option on his team and stockpiling the targets. He's had 303 targets over the last 2 years and managed to turn that into 147 receptions and 2414 yards and 16 TD's. People see those numbers and that he's going to play with a "real" QB now and they are letting their imaginations get away from them. He finished as the #1 WR in 2010 thanks to a gaudy unsustainable 18.8 ypc (thanks to 9 40+ yard catches) and 11 TD's. Both career highs and both numbers he hasn't come close to replicating. Now he goes to a situation where he has a hall of fame QB tossing him the ball. However, is the situation that great? He goes from being the clear cut first option on nearly every pass play to being possible the 4th option. The Pats threw the ball 612 times last year, 75.49% of those passes when to Welker, Gronkowski or Hernandez (and that number could be higher because Hernandez missed 2 games). So where are Lloyds targets coming from? New England now has 6 players who had 97+ targets last year. Even if Brady throws 600+ times again (which has only happened 12 times in the past 10 years, 4 by Brees) the pie would still be too small for everyone to get theres. Now, I can see some of Welkers going to Lloyds, but I think the TE's stay pretty much the same. Most of Branches will go to Lloyd, but don't forget that they also signed Gaffney this offseason and have Stallworth who played decently for them down the stretch, neither of those 2 will be fantasy relevant most likely, but they will take up some precious targets. In the end I just don't see Lloyd getting much more than 100 targets and with his sub 50% catch rate and reliance on deep balls it will lead to some disappointed and frustrated owners. Projection: 57/732/4

This one seems odd.You are predicting a career low in ypc for Lloyd when he will be playing with the best QB he's every played with BY FAR while basically alloting him the same season Deion Branch had last year. I'm not buying it. I don't expect Randy Moss numbers or Denver production circa 2010, but I think you are chiming in way too low.Far too many people are just willing to give the same production from 2011 to Gronk / Hernandez / and Welker. Lloyd will serve to change the distribution, and people will need to understand that he is now one of those guys. People want to transfer the Big 3's numbers from last year into this year and only give table scraps to Lloyd. That most likely won't happen. They could have stuck with Branch if they had no interest in fully utilizing a second WR. And as far as Stallworth goes, it's starting to look like EITHER Branch or Stallowrth will make the team, so that would eliminate one mouth to feed right there.As far as total passing attempts go, I really am not that concerned how many passes Brady throws as long as the Pats rely heavily on the pass (which I believe they will for many reasons). If they have a 80 yard TD drive and get 70 yards of it passing, does it really matter if they accomplish that on 8 passes or 5 passes? Brady scored more fantasy points in 2007 on 578 passes than he did last year. It's not like all Pats players will lose their fantasy value if Brady drops below 600 attempts.

 

[Instinctive]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

 

[netnalp]

Cardinal players. Just seems like at their ADP that there will be better options.

Fitz- probably goes too high

Roberts and Doucet - at this time for me it's a toss up who will be the #2. Wr is so deep there are other options I have more confidence in. At best they are late round picks or someone I watch for the waiver wire.

Kolb or Skelton - Definitely don't want them as a starter and I'd have to be looking at Garrard, Henne, McCoy as the other options for a backup. If that's who is left I'd take Kolb.

Wells- meh. probably goes too high.

Ryan Williams - might be worth a 10th round or later pick to fill that last RB spot.

 

[Instinctive]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

 

[bengalbuck]

Figured I'd start a list of one player at each position that I'm just not buying into the hype/love and think people who draft them will feel cheated at the end of the year.QB: Cam Newton The thought of having a dual threat QB is a nice one, but I think it's too inconsitent and adds an additional injury risk. I saw what he did last year, but I also saw what Vick did 2 years ago. Newton came out on fire last year, but after the first 4 games or so his passing was pretty average. And the last several games of the season we saw the RB's become way more involved in the Goal Line game as Carolina tried to save their qb from additional punishment. I think we see Newton actually become a better QB this year, but his stats regress as teams now had a whole offseason to study tape on him. I just can't see spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on this guy. Projection: 3700/24/16 and 631/5 rushing. Bonus Selection: Robert Griffin III I think he suffers as teams will use the same plan they develop to stop Newton on him. He won't have the "surprise" element that Newton got and Defenses will have a full training camp so they won't be caught off-guard.RB: DeMarco MurrayThis was a tough one to pick because I have a handful of RB's not living up to their ADP, but they are all still pretty close to it. That said, I went with Murray because I feel you may have someone that is going to look at last years stats and overpay for him. I don't think he's an RB1. Last year he averaged 5.5 ypc, but it's an inflated 5.5 mostly due to a 91 yard run he had against St. Louis. Now, I'm not saying to discount it completely, but because he only had 163 carries, it added a disproportionate amount to his ypc total (in fact .53 of the 5.5 can be attributed to that run). The other concern is the lack of RZ rushes and his lack of success on them. He touched the ball 21 times in the RZ last year but only converted those into 2 TD's. 19 of those times were in between weeks 6 and 12 (when he was the lead back), that's less thand 3 times a game average. On top of that, Dallas had the 9th highest pass to run ratio inside the red zone. Honorable Mentions: Charles, Forte and ADPAll three I think fail to live up to their draft positions as they recover from season ending injuries. Charles and Forte both have new faces to "share the load" and ADP will probably be eased back into things.WR: Brandon LloydThis was probably the easiest one for me to pick. I'm not sure when this guy became Jerry Rice but I must of have missed it. I think the truth is this guy has made a name by being the only viable receiving option on his team and stockpiling the targets. He's had 303 targets over the last 2 years and managed to turn that into 147 receptions and 2414 yards and 16 TD's. People see those numbers and that he's going to play with a "real" QB now and they are letting their imaginations get away from them. He finished as the #1 WR in 2010 thanks to a gaudy unsustainable 18.8 ypc (thanks to 9 40+ yard catches) and 11 TD's. Both career highs and both numbers he hasn't come close to replicating. Now he goes to a situation where he has a hall of fame QB tossing him the ball. However, is the situation that great? He goes from being the clear cut first option on nearly every pass play to being possible the 4th option. The Pats threw the ball 612 times last year, 75.49% of those passes when to Welker, Gronkowski or Hernandez (and that number could be higher because Hernandez missed 2 games). So where are Lloyds targets coming from? New England now has 6 players who had 97+ targets last year. Even if Brady throws 600+ times again (which has only happened 12 times in the past 10 years, 4 by Brees) the pie would still be too small for everyone to get theres. Now, I can see some of Welkers going to Lloyds, but I think the TE's stay pretty much the same. Most of Branches will go to Lloyd, but don't forget that they also signed Gaffney this offseason and have Stallworth who played decently for them down the stretch, neither of those 2 will be fantasy relevant most likely, but they will take up some precious targets. In the end I just don't see Lloyd getting much more than 100 targets and with his sub 50% catch rate and reliance on deep balls it will lead to some disappointed and frustrated owners. Projection: 57/732/4TE: Vernon DavisNow I like Vernon Davis, I think his situation just may have gotten worse despite my belief that Harbaugh allows Alex Smith to take the training wheels off this year. The addition of Randy Moss will open up the underneath, which I think Crabtree actually takes advantage of as Smith will try to push the ball more down the field. Also TD opportunities could become a concern since SF ranks 27th in terms of pass/run ratio in the red zone and Davis only had 9 RZ targets last year but did managed to convert 5 of them. Projections: 52/574/4Which players aren't you buying?

I agree with most of yours, but the explanation regarding Newton is a bit curious. I guess league scoring is not standard, but the most standard is probably 1 point per 25 passing, 1 point per 10 rushing. 4 points per TD passing, 6 points per TD rushing. Using your Cam projection of 3700 passing 24 TDs, 630 rushing and 5 TDs of (which looks slightly low but entirely reasonable) and converting his rushing stats to passing stats means that he'd put up the equivalent of 5300 passing yards and 31 TDs. Seems like that type of projection actually justifies his ADP and would lead to happy owners.Edit to add: Should have read the entire thread before replying. I see others have already made this exact same point.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

 

[Instinctive]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

League play certainly comes into it. If I can get a top 5 QB with a 2nd round pick in my 14 teamer...I'll be all over it.Again - my point was not that he'd be good or a value. It was simply that the stats projected by the OP don't make any sense with the argument he makes. That's a stella,r top 5 QB season. Tough to be disappointed in that.

 

[FF Ninja]

Agree with Charles/ADP - usually takes two years to fully heal. My guess is they'll disappoint this year and be great buy low candidates next year.

Disagree with Murray. Even if you discount that long run, a 4.0 YPC average is still good and he's the lead back on a high scoring offense. I think he outperforms his ADP.

Also disagree with Brandon Lloyd. ADP of WR20 isn't crazy. If his upside is Randy Moss #'s as a Patriot, I'll take the risk, plus he's been WR#1 before with a much lesser QB. I don't really care about targets, 1 TD bomb can give a week's worth of fantasy #'s.

Tell that to Blount. He averaged 4.2 ypc on a horrible offense and people are ready to take him out with yesterday's garbage. I'll agree that it is hard to imagine a guy flopping while being the lead back in the high octane Dallas offense, but I just don't expect Murray to be the guy. All he has to do is be mediocre to be an awesome fantasy play, so there's a chance but I'm doubtful. Additionally, isn't their o-line in flux? I should read up on that but I'm feeling lazy at the moment.My against the grain pick is Richardson. I fully believe he could live up to expectations, but I suggest playing the odds on this one and staying away from the rookie RB on a team in transition. He's going to need about five things to all fall his way. He'll need to get a huge workload, he'll need to be able to handle the workload, he'll need to quickly transition to the NFL game, he'll need his QB to at least keep the defense a little bit honest, and he'll need a lot more scoring opps than last year's RBs got. It's easy to argue each one of those cases individually, but for all of them to happen at the same time seems like wishful thinking. I'll pass this year and hopefully buy low next year when Weeden's got a year of experience under his belt and his WRs are a bit more seasoned.

I definitely agree with the RG3 pick. He's going way too early for a rookie QB. I'll also be passing on Stafford. 663 passes won't happen again. If their RBs can stay healthy, that offense will have to be more balanced.

I'm passing on Roddy White. I think Julio Jones becomes their #1 this season. Even if he doesn't, White won't get 179 targets again. That's just a crazy number.

 

[bengalbuck]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

It would have had him as the #5 QB last year but easily the #1 QB in 2010. And still a monster QB season that would rank very highly among all QB seasons in the last decade.I think last year was a freaky year for QBs at the top. You almost have to (in my opinion) build in a 15% or so scoring drop for all of the top guys. Even a 15% drop would be way ahead of the 3 and 5 year averages of guys like Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Eli. It's tougher to figure Stafford/Newton. Basically, even if you tell me that Cam's stats will go down 15%, that would still make him a top 25 pick (same for Brady, Brees, Stafford and Rodgers). Most likely, a few of those guys drop off more than 15%.

 

[pantherclub]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

In your opinion was that high, low or just about right.I think its probably about right in my mind maybe a few picks high if anything.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

In your opinion was that high, low or just about right.I think its probably about right in my mind maybe a few picks high if anything.

I can't answer that for everyone, but for me I think it's a bit too high. In the main, it's probably pretty close, but I see Newton and Stafford as the most likely top QB candidates to go backwards some this year. Based on that and given how I tend to draft, I wouldn't take Newton that high. I would rather fill other spots and then target other QBs later on.

 

[DeaLerZ]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

I have to disagree... the reason Newton is so valuable is because he runs the ball, he is going to consistantly get over 20 points a week because of his rushing yds/tds.. and the projections you made like others stated are what makes Newton so valuable... and that to me is worthy of a high pick because you can count on him for consistant points almost every week.. with the potential to explode... and of course you cannot forget the "How much fun he is to watch on T.V." factor

 

[lbouchard]

Agree with Charles/ADP - usually takes two years to fully heal. My guess is they'll disappoint this year and be great buy low candidates next year.

Disagree with Murray. Even if you discount that long run, a 4.0 YPC average is still good and he's the lead back on a high scoring offense. I think he outperforms his ADP.

Also disagree with Brandon Lloyd. ADP of WR20 isn't crazy. If his upside is Randy Moss #'s as a Patriot, I'll take the risk, plus he's been WR#1 before with a much lesser QB. I don't really care about targets, 1 TD bomb can give a week's worth of fantasy #'s.

Tell that to Blount. He averaged 4.2 ypc on a horrible offense and people are ready to take him out with yesterday's garbage. I'll agree that it is hard to imagine a guy flopping while being the lead back in the high octane Dallas offense, but I just don't expect Murray to be the guy. All he has to do is be mediocre to be an awesome fantasy play, so there's a chance but I'm doubtful. Additionally, isn't their o-line in flux? I should read up on that but I'm feeling lazy at the moment.

Actually, if you discount the long run, Murray's YPC is 5.0, which is very good. The OP said the one long run accounted for .53 of his YPC. Subtract .53 from 5.5 and you get an even 5.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

I have to disagree... the reason Newton is so valuable is because he runs the ball, he is going to consistantly get over 20 points a week because of his rushing yds/tds.. and the projections you made like others stated are what makes Newton so valuable... and that to me is worthy of a high pick because you can count on him for consistant points almost every week.. with the potential to explode... and of course you cannot forget the "How much fun he is to watch on T.V." factor

If you read what I wrote, I said based on how I am projecting the players and how I draft, Newton doesn't fit with my personal criteria at the #14 spot. IMO, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees are more apt to do better than Newton or Stafford, so I if I was really looking to take a QB early it would be one of those three. I'm not saying that Newton is going to bomb, but I think he will not be as productive as last year.Accepting that as law (which is far from a sure thing), I would rather contruct MY TEAM differently than taking what I think carries some risk at the 14th pick. What I did do in the draft I mentioned was take Vick at the end of the 4th, as I see him having a bounce back year and putting up better numbers than Newton on a ppg basis. So in my universe, Vick comes at a discount for similar (or better) production 2.5-3 rounds later.Everyone drafts differetnly and projects players differently . . . that's just how I see things. other opinions and strategies will (and should) differ.

 

[pantherclub]

Brady and Rodgers for sure over Newton but not Brees. This season has dumpster fire written all over it.

You figure in a 12 team league Rodgers and Brady go top 10ish and Newton is probably picked shortly after that.

 

[Sinrman]

WR: Brandon LloydThis was probably the easiest one for me to pick. I'm not sure when this guy became Jerry Rice but I must of have missed it. I think the truth is this guy has made a name by being the only viable receiving option on his team and stockpiling the targets. He's had 303 targets over the last 2 years and managed to turn that into 147 receptions and 2414 yards and 16 TD's. People see those numbers and that he's going to play with a "real" QB now and they are letting their imaginations get away from them. He finished as the #1 WR in 2010 thanks to a gaudy unsustainable 18.8 ypc (thanks to 9 40+ yard catches) and 11 TD's. Both career highs and both numbers he hasn't come close to replicating. Now he goes to a situation where he has a hall of fame QB tossing him the ball. However, is the situation that great? He goes from being the clear cut first option on nearly every pass play to being possible the 4th option. The Pats threw the ball 612 times last year, 75.49% of those passes when to Welker, Gronkowski or Hernandez (and that number could be higher because Hernandez missed 2 games). So where are Lloyds targets coming from? New England now has 6 players who had 97+ targets last year. Even if Brady throws 600+ times again (which has only happened 12 times in the past 10 years, 4 by Brees) the pie would still be too small for everyone to get theres. Now, I can see some of Welkers going to Lloyds, but I think the TE's stay pretty much the same. Most of Branches will go to Lloyd, but don't forget that they also signed Gaffney this offseason and have Stallworth who played decently for them down the stretch, neither of those 2 will be fantasy relevant most likely, but they will take up some precious targets. In the end I just don't see Lloyd getting much more than 100 targets and with his sub 50% catch rate and reliance on deep balls it will lead to some disappointed and frustrated owners. Projection: 57/732/4

This one seems odd.You are predicting a career low in ypc for Lloyd when he will be playing with the best QB he's every played with BY FAR while basically alloting him the same season Deion Branch had last year. I'm not buying it. I don't expect Randy Moss numbers or Denver production circa 2010, but I think you are chiming in way too low.Far too many people are just willing to give the same production from 2011 to Gronk / Hernandez / and Welker. Lloyd will serve to change the distribution, and people will need to understand that he is now one of those guys. People want to transfer the Big 3's numbers from last year into this year and only give table scraps to Lloyd. That most likely won't happen. They could have stuck with Branch if they had no interest in fully utilizing a second WR. And as far as Stallworth goes, it's starting to look like EITHER Branch or Stallowrth will make the team, so that would eliminate one mouth to feed right there.As far as total passing attempts go, I really am not that concerned how many passes Brady throws as long as the Pats rely heavily on the pass (which I believe they will for many reasons). If they have a 80 yard TD drive and get 70 yards of it passing, does it really matter if they accomplish that on 8 passes or 5 passes? Brady scored more fantasy points in 2007 on 578 passes than he did last year. It's not like all Pats players will lose their fantasy value if Brady drops below 600 attempts.

Yeah, that is exactly how I thought when I first read it. Lloyd is working with the best QB he's ever had, and he's only going to have a 700 yard/4 TD season!? Welker ALONE will pull double teams from time to time, and then when you add Gronk and Hernandez...? Oh man, Lloyd should have a VERY nice season.

 

[David Yudkin]

Brady and Rodgers for sure over Newton but not Brees. This season has dumpster fire written all over it.You figure in a 12 team league Rodgers and Brady go top 10ish and Newton is probably picked shortly after that.

I realize that there is the potential for danger in New Orleans this year with Brees' contract situation and the bounty gate mess, but in 6 seasons with the Saints, he's averaged 4733/34 with 612 attempts a season. By the time the season roles around, I think the situation will look a little better than it does currently. Bottom line, I still think Brees is a safe bet.

 

[Texasmouth]

QB's

Cam- no where to go but down. Expectations will be too ridiculous

RGIII- came from a really basic offense, wont be able to work the Shanny offense. Big flop.

RB's

Wells- not touching him; had good numbers but I dont trust his health or talent; a healthy Williams will end his run

Vereen- touted as the "more talented" but he hasnt seen the field enough to prove that. Nightmare situation there.

ADP- he is a super human but I just cant see him being 100% all year

Sleeping on:

Alex Smith- I think he gets better this year- second year with a staff that has faith in him, nice weapons

 

[whatadai]

Players I wouldn't buy:

QBs: Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, Stafford

RBs: Foster, McCoy, Rice, MOJO, Mathews

WRs: Megatron, Welker, Cruz, Rowdy, Steve Smith

TEs: Gronk, Graham, Witten, Gonzalez, Gates

Why? Regression to the mean.

 

[drfeelgood]

Brady and Rodgers for sure over Newton but not Brees. This season has dumpster fire written all over it.You figure in a 12 team league Rodgers and Brady go top 10ish and Newton is probably picked shortly after that.

I realize that there is the potential for danger in New Orleans this year with Brees' contract situation and the bounty gate mess, but in 6 seasons with the Saints, he's averaged 4733/34 with 612 attempts a season. By the time the season roles around, I think the situation will look a little better than it does currently. Bottom line, I still think Brees is a safe bet.

What concerns me the most about Brees is Sean Payton not being there to call the plays.

 

[lbouchard]

Brady and Rodgers for sure over Newton but not Brees. This season has dumpster fire written all over it.You figure in a 12 team league Rodgers and Brady go top 10ish and Newton is probably picked shortly after that.

I realize that there is the potential for danger in New Orleans this year with Brees' contract situation and the bounty gate mess, but in 6 seasons with the Saints, he's averaged 4733/34 with 612 attempts a season. By the time the season roles around, I think the situation will look a little better than it does currently. Bottom line, I still think Brees is a safe bet.

What concerns me the most about Brees is Sean Payton not being there to call the plays.

Someone had a post about it in a different thread but Payton only called plays for 6 games. Carmichael called plays for 12, and the offense performed higher

 

[Eminence]

QB:

Eli Manning

Andy Dalton

WR:

Robert Meachem

Brandon Lloyd

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Torrey Smith

RB:

Shonn Greene

Roy Helu

Mikel LeShoure

TE:

Antonio Gates

 

[MAC_32]

Kenny Britt.

He's and idiot and he's not healthy yet he's being drafted as a top 15 WR.

No thanks.

 

[whatadai]

Kenny Britt.He's and idiot and he's not healthy yet he's being drafted as a top 15 WR.No thanks.

Seriously?

 

[King of the Jungle]

Players I wouldn't buy:QBs: Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, StaffordRBs: Foster, McCoy, Rice, MOJO, MathewsWRs: Megatron, Welker, Cruz, Rowdy, Steve SmithTEs: Gronk, Graham, Witten, Gonzalez, GatesWhy? Regression to the mean.

Agreed. I will be trading my first 3 rounds of picks to move back and hopefully find some value.

 

[MAC_32]

Kenny Britt.He's and idiot and he's not healthy yet he's being drafted as a top 15 WR.No thanks.

Seriously?

Yes. I'm surprised there are so many people this high on him.

 

[leave a whisper]

QB - Griffin (not top 12, just isn't)

RB - Forte (M.Bush is no scrub)

WR - Bowe (will go before I select him, I like at least 20 other WR's better)

TE - Fred Davis (see Griffin)

 

[Dragon1952]

Players I wouldn't buy:

QBs: Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, Stafford

RBs: Foster, McCoy, Rice, MOJO, Mathews

WRs: Megatron, Welker, Cruz, Rowdy, Steve Smith

TEs: Gronk, Graham, Witten, Gonzalez, Gates



Why? Regression to the mean.

Agreed. I will be trading my first 3 rounds of picks to move back and hopefully find some value.

I think that was a joke. But then again....maybe both of them were...or neither of them

 

[Chazzhawk]

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton - I don't think he is a bust but he won't get 14 rushing tds again

Eli Manning - I think their running game and defense is better than last year

Running backs

Darren Mcfadden - I just don't think he will ever stay healthy, too much risk at the end of the first or beginning of second

Jamaal Charles - You can play on an acl the next year after you hurt it but it takes another year to get the speed and cutting ability back which is his game

Matt Forte - Hold out, Micheal Bush and new receivers that are actual weapons

Ahmad Bradshaw - Drafted as a top 20 back, no way his ankles survive more than one year.

Wide Receiver

Kenny Britt - Same as Charles.

Hakeem Nicks - The production is there when healthy, he maybe a DMC clone.

Jordy Nelson - Drafted as top 15 wide receiver, there is no way he can only catch 60 something passes and score 15 tds, and his catches won't go up there are too many other weapons.

Tight End

Coby Fleener - He is being drafted above, Pettigrew, Davis, and Gresham. All those guys are still young and have shown at least flashes of being great.

Let me say I like some of these players, I just wouldn't draft them nearly as high as they are going.

 

[NJ]

Quarterbacks Cam Newton - I don't think he is a bust but he won't get 14 rushing tds againEli Manning - I think their running game and defense is better than last year Running backsDarren Mcfadden - I just don't think he will ever stay healthy, too much risk at the end of the first or beginning of secondJamaal Charles - You can play on an acl the next year after you hurt it but it takes another year to get the speed and cutting ability back which is his gameMatt Forte - Hold out, Micheal Bush and new receivers that are actual weaponsAhmad Bradshaw - Drafted as a top 20 back, no way his ankles survive more than one year.Wide Receiver Kenny Britt - Same as Charles.Hakeem Nicks - The production is there when healthy, he maybe a DMC clone.Jordy Nelson - Drafted as top 15 wide receiver, there is no way he can only catch 60 something passes and score 15 tds, and his catches won't go up there are too many other weapons.Tight End Coby Fleener - He is being drafted above, Pettigrew, Davis, and Gresham. All those guys are still young and have shown at least flashes of being great. Let me say I like some of these players, I just wouldn't draft them nearly as high as they are going.

I like this list a lot, Nicks is definitely an interesting one, no doubt the talent is there and the guy was a nice value in 2010 because he was drafted as like WR20 and finished 8th, but then 2011 his ADP was WR5 and he finishes 12th and now his ADP moves up to WR4 when he's already hurt? There are plenty of guys I can get in the 3rd that I think will produce just as well rather than having to use a mid 2nd on Nicks just to spend the whole season holding my breath waiting to see if this is the play that takes him out of the game again.

 

[bengalbuck]

Quarterbacks Cam Newton - I don't think he is a bust but he won't get 14 rushing tds againEli Manning - I think their running game and defense is better than last year Running backsDarren Mcfadden - I just don't think he will ever stay healthy, too much risk at the end of the first or beginning of secondJamaal Charles - You can play on an acl the next year after you hurt it but it takes another year to get the speed and cutting ability back which is his gameMatt Forte - Hold out, Micheal Bush and new receivers that are actual weaponsAhmad Bradshaw - Drafted as a top 20 back, no way his ankles survive more than one year.Wide Receiver Kenny Britt - Same as Charles.Hakeem Nicks - The production is there when healthy, he maybe a DMC clone.Jordy Nelson - Drafted as top 15 wide receiver, there is no way he can only catch 60 something passes and score 15 tds, and his catches won't go up there are too many other weapons.Tight End Coby Fleener - He is being drafted above, Pettigrew, Davis, and Gresham. All those guys are still young and have shown at least flashes of being great. Let me say I like some of these players, I just wouldn't draft them nearly as high as they are going.

I like this list a lot, Nicks is definitely an interesting one, no doubt the talent is there and the guy was a nice value in 2010 because he was drafted as like WR20 and finished 8th, but then 2011 his ADP was WR5 and he finishes 12th and now his ADP moves up to WR4 when he's already hurt? There are plenty of guys I can get in the 3rd that I think will produce just as well rather than having to use a mid 2nd on Nicks just to spend the whole season holding my breath waiting to see if this is the play that takes him out of the game again.

I like this list as well. Only 2 I disagree with are Cam and Jamaal Charles. Does Cam have to score 14 TDs to be worthy of being a 2nd round pick? If he "only" rushes for 8 or so, that's still a 3 point per game advantage over most other QBs on that alone. Not to mention the 40 yards or so (another 4 points per game) he puts up running the ball. His numbers were so astronomical last year that even if he doesn't match them, there is plenty of cushion for him to still have great numbers.As for Charles, I get the concern about the ACL and agree it is scary. However, his upside is through the roof. This is a guy who has averaged over 6 YPC for his career. And he did that behind a mediocre OL. The Chiefs' OL should be much improved this year. He has some deep threats at WR to keep defenses honest. He should catch 50+ passes....I think in the late 2nd round, the rewards outweigh the risks for me. Especially because the depth at RB this year sucks. After the top 10-15 guys, there just aren't many sure things and there aren't many guys with the potential for huge numbers. I'd love to have 3 of those RBs and get RB1 production from 2 of them. At current ADPs, I like the RBs early and then grabbing the Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, etc. type WRs in the mid-rounds and a QB like Matt Ryan or Tony Romo later on also.

 

[Matt-X3]

Andre Johnson tops this list for me, at least at his ADP of mid 2nd round. Wrong side of 30, on a running team, he and his QB are both high injury concerns, and the WR pool is ridiculously deep this year. I wouldn't take him before the middle to end of the 3rd, and I don't see him ever making his way down that far. Maybe I miss out on a top 5 WR, but I just see too many red flags.

 

[pantherclub]

Andre Johnson tops this list for me, at least at his ADP of mid 2nd round. Wrong side of 30, on a running team, he and his QB are both high injury concerns, and the WR pool is ridiculously deep this year. I wouldn't take him before the middle to end of the 3rd, and I don't see him ever making his way down that far. Maybe I miss out on a top 5 WR, but I just see too many red flags.

I agree with this post.2 years ago he was simply unstoppable and now with the injury factor creeping up fast you just dont know how to play it.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Kenny Britt.

He's and idiot and he's not healthy yet he's being drafted as a top 15 WR.

No thanks.

 

[DeaLerZ]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

I have to disagree... the reason Newton is so valuable is because he runs the ball, he is going to consistantly get over 20 points a week because of his rushing yds/tds.. and the projections you made like others stated are what makes Newton so valuable... and that to me is worthy of a high pick because you can count on him for consistant points almost every week.. with the potential to explode... and of course you cannot forget the "How much fun he is to watch on T.V." factor

If you read what I wrote, I said based on how I am projecting the players and how I draft, Newton doesn't fit with my personal criteria at the #14 spot. IMO, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees are more apt to do better than Newton or Stafford, so I if I was really looking to take a QB early it would be one of those three. I'm not saying that Newton is going to bomb, but I think he will not be as productive as last year.Accepting that as law (which is far from a sure thing), I would rather contruct MY TEAM differently than taking what I think carries some risk at the 14th pick. What I did do in the draft I mentioned was take Vick at the end of the 4th, as I see him having a bounce back year and putting up better numbers than Newton on a ppg basis. So in my universe, Vick comes at a discount for similar (or better) production 2.5-3 rounds later.Everyone drafts differetnly and projects players differently . . . that's just how I see things. other opinions and strategies will (and should) differ.

Ahh must have misunderstood the part about how you were drafting.. i was just responding to the "Player's I am not buying" portion...and I totally agree with DeMarco Murray... I think he has great talent, and the ypc were still 5.0yds per carry without the big run... but the problem with this guy is he is one big hit away from being out for the season.. and i really agree with the points about Dallas being a pass heavy team.. Murray was great for me in the stretch last season but caused me a championship with his injury, although i can't hate him because he is on a great offensive team, and has loads of talent I wouldn't pick him any sooner than the late 2nd, early 3rd because he is nothing more than a poor man's Matt Forte (of the previous two years) until he can prove he can stay healthy, and learn how to get his nose in the endzone

 

[Manster]

Im not ruling out Murray, just depends on where he goes in the draft. I could see someone in my leagues reaching for him for sure. He showed us he's a legit RB1. Lets face it, the Cowboys O-line was not lightin the world on fire last season. He played at an ELITE level for multiple games in spite of the line at times, before he was injured. He was dominant in games last season. Injuries are a real concern with him. Dallas' O-line has big question marks at the interior of their line.

Guys I aint buyin as of now. Its always fluid though:

QB- RG3. Ive seen him rated higher than Romo and Rivers. He has lots of talent, and a lot of pressure on him to be the man in DC. Someone will reach for him as Cam light. No thanks.

RB- Gore, SJax, R.Mathews. Always liked Gore, but he's got tough miles on his legs. 9ers have Hunter, Jacobs and rook James. No thanks. Sjax could be a solid RB2, if he falls in drafts. Lots of miles on his legs. Mathews has missed games due to injury and had fumblitis, plus McClain vulturing.

WR- VJax. Inconsistent in SD. I dont see that changing in Tampa with a downgrade at QB. And someone will reach for him because he could be a beast, and prolly will be for a few games, then have a handful of stinkers.

TE- Gates, Gonzo. HOFers gettin long in the tooth. Gates has missed 9 games over last two seasons. Gonzo had a solid '11, but he's 36 and nearing retirement. Someone will grab him too early in my drafts.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

QB - Brees because I don't like the entire situation at NO between Payton suspension, bounty-gate overall, lawsuits against the NFL, lawsuits against the commissioner, Brees' contract situation and they didn't replace Meachem. I don't think he'll bust by any means but I won't buy him at his ADP.

RB - MJD, Peterson, Gore, and Turner - No way

WR - Andre Johnson, Colston, Welker, and Roddy White.

TE - None of the top 7 unless they become a huge bargain. I'll take F. Davis, Gresham, Pettigrew or even Cook/Celek later in the draft.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'm not buying Gronk, 265 lbs on a surgically repaired ankle, addition of Lloyd, best ever season for a TE and the customary drop-off in production the following year, etc..defensive coordinators have spent the offseason scheming/designing ways to stop him,and I think to an extent, they'll succeed..relative to where he is being drafted, I don't see him living up to expectations..

not sure I buy the Matthew Stafford hype..a guy who's had problems staying healthy playing in an offense that had him attempt 663 passes, allowed him to be sacked 36 times, is a recipe for disaster going forward...he's simply going to get killed behind an aging O-line..

any Dallas player not named Romo or Witten..you can take Austin and his roller coaster stats, Murray and his overblown 2011 production, Dez Bryant, etc.

the only consistent fantasy point producers from the Cowboys' offense

are Witten and Romo..every.single.year. we go through the overhyping of Dallas players, and yet every year they fail to produce.This year looks to be the same..when will people realize they can find productive talent, elsewhere?

CJ Spiller - by week 4 we'll have completely forgotten about Spiller, as FJax will ride one of the NFL's easiest schedules straight to the Pro Bowl. Spiller

has talent but he's a Reggie Bush type of part time RB, not a 3-down back like Fjax.

Mike Vick - rushing QB's tend to get hurt.a lot. Vick is going to have his games, but more than likely he's going to spend a good deal of the season battling injuries,concussions, etc..

 

[Chazzhawk]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

I have to disagree... the reason Newton is so valuable is because he runs the ball, he is going to consistantly get over 20 points a week because of his rushing yds/tds.. and the projections you made like others stated are what makes Newton so valuable... and that to me is worthy of a high pick because you can count on him for consistant points almost every week.. with the potential to explode... and of course you cannot forget the "How much fun he is to watch on T.V." factor

If you read what I wrote, I said based on how I am projecting the players and how I draft, Newton doesn't fit with my personal criteria at the #14 spot. IMO, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees are more apt to do better than Newton or Stafford, so I if I was really looking to take a QB early it would be one of those three. I'm not saying that Newton is going to bomb, but I think he will not be as productive as last year.Accepting that as law (which is far from a sure thing), I would rather contruct MY TEAM differently than taking what I think carries some risk at the 14th pick. What I did do in the draft I mentioned was take Vick at the end of the 4th, as I see him having a bounce back year and putting up better numbers than Newton on a ppg basis. So in my universe, Vick comes at a discount for similar (or better) production 2.5-3 rounds later.Everyone drafts differetnly and projects players differently . . . that's just how I see things. other opinions and strategies will (and should) differ.

Ahh must have misunderstood the part about how you were drafting.. i was just responding to the "Player's I am not buying" portion...and I totally agree with DeMarco Murray... I think he has great talent, and the ypc were still 5.0yds per carry without the big run... but the problem with this guy is he is one big hit away from being out for the season.. and i really agree with the points about Dallas being a pass heavy team.. Murray was great for me in the stretch last season but caused me a championship with his injury, although i can't hate him because he is on a great offensive team, and has loads of talent I wouldn't pick him any sooner than the late 2nd, early 3rd because he is nothing more than a poor man's Matt Forte (of the previous two years) until he can prove he can stay healthy, and learn how to get his nose in the endzone

Every player in the NFL is one big hit away from being out for the season. Even some of the iron men of the NFL have missed time or lost a season recently, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Jay Cutler. A poor man's Forte is still a high end #2 running back or low end number 1 at the end of the 2nd round or beginning of the 3rd.

 

[Clifford]

Agree with Charles/ADP - usually takes two years to fully heal. My guess is they'll disappoint this year and be great buy low candidates next year. Disagree with Murray. Even if you discount that long run, a 4.0 YPC average is still good and he's the lead back on a high scoring offense. I think he outperforms his ADP. Also disagree with Brandon Lloyd. ADP of WR20 isn't crazy. If his upside is Randy Moss #'s as a Patriot, I'll take the risk, plus he's been WR#1 before with a much lesser QB. I don't really care about targets, 1 TD bomb can give a week's worth of fantasy #'s.

Actually taking away that long run (which is stupid and should never be done when doing statistical analysis anyway) he averaged 4.97 I believe. Also, your projections for Newton (which include a fairly major regression in passing) I think would still rank him pretty high in most leagues.

 

[DeaLerZ]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

I think this is where individual league scoring systems would come into play. In the league I referenced and using the statline for Newton in the OP, Newton would score 390 points for this season, which would represent about a 15% dropoff. That would have ranked him as the #5 QB last year. If that were to happen again this season, that would be decent value as the #14 overall pick but not the value slam dunk he was last year when his ADP was 155 overall.

I have to disagree... the reason Newton is so valuable is because he runs the ball, he is going to consistantly get over 20 points a week because of his rushing yds/tds.. and the projections you made like others stated are what makes Newton so valuable... and that to me is worthy of a high pick because you can count on him for consistant points almost every week.. with the potential to explode... and of course you cannot forget the "How much fun he is to watch on T.V." factor

If you read what I wrote, I said based on how I am projecting the players and how I draft, Newton doesn't fit with my personal criteria at the #14 spot. IMO, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees are more apt to do better than Newton or Stafford, so I if I was really looking to take a QB early it would be one of those three. I'm not saying that Newton is going to bomb, but I think he will not be as productive as last year.Accepting that as law (which is far from a sure thing), I would rather contruct MY TEAM differently than taking what I think carries some risk at the 14th pick. What I did do in the draft I mentioned was take Vick at the end of the 4th, as I see him having a bounce back year and putting up better numbers than Newton on a ppg basis. So in my universe, Vick comes at a discount for similar (or better) production 2.5-3 rounds later.Everyone drafts differetnly and projects players differently . . . that's just how I see things. other opinions and strategies will (and should) differ.

Ahh must have misunderstood the part about how you were drafting.. i was just responding to the "Player's I am not buying" portion...and I totally agree with DeMarco Murray... I think he has great talent, and the ypc were still 5.0yds per carry without the big run... but the problem with this guy is he is one big hit away from being out for the season.. and i really agree with the points about Dallas being a pass heavy team.. Murray was great for me in the stretch last season but caused me a championship with his injury, although i can't hate him because he is on a great offensive team, and has loads of talent I wouldn't pick him any sooner than the late 2nd, early 3rd because he is nothing more than a poor man's Matt Forte (of the previous two years) until he can prove he can stay healthy, and learn how to get his nose in the endzone

Every player in the NFL is one big hit away from being out for the season. Even some of the iron men of the NFL have missed time or lost a season recently, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Jay Cutler. A poor man's Forte is still a high end #2 running back or low end number 1 at the end of the 2nd round or beginning of the 3rd.

... no #### sherlock.... but this guy is brittle...and my point is I am not going to be grabbing him in the first round like many will... it simply just isn't worth it.. but i wouldn't be stupid enough to pass him up in the early 3rd round either

 

[Chazzhawk]

I have only done 5 drafts but I have yet to see him go before 2.06 in redraft or dynasty. If it was so obvious that all players are one hit away then why is this the first thing you said when saying he is a guy that you just aren't buying?

 

[th3f00l]

Actually, if you discount the long run, Murray's YPC is 5.0, which is very good. The OP said the one long run accounted for .53 of his YPC. Subtract .53 from 5.5 and you get an even 5.

Did any body check the math on this. Arithmetic is not my strong point.

 

[th3f00l]

I think there really isn't much to say about the players that are moving to a new team. You see it all the time that a player that was great for one team can't perform on another, and vice versa. These picks will be gambles, similar to picking up rookies. The players that I know I will be avoiding are on the same team as the year before.

QB-Vick

6th QB. 4th round

I feel like if you missed the top five you can skip the next five and do a QBBC with the likes of Cutler, Freeman, and Dalton

RB- Chris Johnson

6th RB. 8th overall

I won't be using my first overall pick on this much of a Gamble. Last year is much too daunting.

WR- Andre Johnson

3rd WR. late 2nd round

As mentioned earlier, he has suffered a lot of injuries over the years, and he is aging.

TE- Antonio Gates

3rd TE. Late 4th round.

Vincent Jackson leaving may, contrary to popular belief, not be the best situation for the aging injury prone TE. He just isn't what he used to be. By all means he has value in the 6th round, but he will probably not be around that long