Players I'm just not buying... (1 Viewer)

[DeaLerZ]

I have only done 5 drafts but I have yet to see him go before 2.06 in redraft or dynasty. If it was so obvious that all players are one hit away then why is this the first thing you said when saying he is a guy that you just aren't buying?

because this is a major concern for him.. more than other running backs, because i am not sure he can carry the load, or get his nose in the redzone...i think he has great vision, and will get great yardage, but i am just not convinced he is an every down back for a full season type player yet..

 

[Chazzhawk]

I have only done 5 drafts but I have yet to see him go before 2.06 in redraft or dynasty. If it was so obvious that all players are one hit away then why is this the first thing you said when saying he is a guy that you just aren't buying?

because this is a major concern for him.. more than other running backs, because i am not sure he can carry the load, or get his nose in the redzone...i think he has great vision, and will get great yardage, but i am just not convinced he is an every down back for a full season type player yet..

This is why I am buying him, he has upside to be a top 12 back, but usually he is being taken in the late 2nd or early 3rd which puts him in the range of 15 to 20 for backs. I was responding to when you said too many people have or will take him in the first round.

 

[Modog814]

WR: Brandon LloydThis was probably the easiest one for me to pick. I'm not sure when this guy became Jerry Rice but I must of have missed it. I think the truth is this guy has made a name by being the only viable receiving option on his team and stockpiling the targets. He's had 303 targets over the last 2 years and managed to turn that into 147 receptions and 2414 yards and 16 TD's. People see those numbers and that he's going to play with a "real" QB now and they are letting their imaginations get away from them. He finished as the #1 WR in 2010 thanks to a gaudy unsustainable 18.8 ypc (thanks to 9 40+ yard catches) and 11 TD's. Both career highs and both numbers he hasn't come close to replicating. Now he goes to a situation where he has a hall of fame QB tossing him the ball. However, is the situation that great? He goes from being the clear cut first option on nearly every pass play to being possible the 4th option. The Pats threw the ball 612 times last year, 75.49% of those passes when to Welker, Gronkowski or Hernandez (and that number could be higher because Hernandez missed 2 games). So where are Lloyds targets coming from? New England now has 6 players who had 97+ targets last year. Even if Brady throws 600+ times again (which has only happened 12 times in the past 10 years, 4 by Brees) the pie would still be too small for everyone to get theres. Now, I can see some of Welkers going to Lloyds, but I think the TE's stay pretty much the same. Most of Branches will go to Lloyd, but don't forget that they also signed Gaffney this offseason and have Stallworth who played decently for them down the stretch, neither of those 2 will be fantasy relevant most likely, but they will take up some precious targets. In the end I just don't see Lloyd getting much more than 100 targets and with his sub 50% catch rate and reliance on deep balls it will lead to some disappointed and frustrated owners. Projection: 57/732/4

This one seems odd.You are predicting a career low in ypc for Lloyd when he will be playing with the best QB he's every played with BY FAR while basically alloting him the same season Deion Branch had last year. I'm not buying it. I don't expect Randy Moss numbers or Denver production circa 2010, but I think you are chiming in way too low.Far too many people are just willing to give the same production from 2011 to Gronk / Hernandez / and Welker. Lloyd will serve to change the distribution, and people will need to understand that he is now one of those guys. People want to transfer the Big 3's numbers from last year into this year and only give table scraps to Lloyd. That most likely won't happen. They could have stuck with Branch if they had no interest in fully utilizing a second WR. And as far as Stallworth goes, it's starting to look like EITHER Branch or Stallowrth will make the team, so that would eliminate one mouth to feed right there.As far as total passing attempts go, I really am not that concerned how many passes Brady throws as long as the Pats rely heavily on the pass (which I believe they will for many reasons). If they have a 80 yard TD drive and get 70 yards of it passing, does it really matter if they accomplish that on 8 passes or 5 passes? Brady scored more fantasy points in 2007 on 578 passes than he did last year. It's not like all Pats players will lose their fantasy value if Brady drops below 600 attempts.

Perhaps my ypc projections are a little low, I'll have to revisit them. I absolutely think that Lloyd eats into some of Gronk/Hernandez/Welkers numbers, I just don't think it's as much as people think. In terms of passing attempts, I only bring it up due to Lloyd's relatively low catch rate and his reliance on deep passes to get his numbers. For him, when you lower the attempts you give him less chances to cash in on lower success rate play (albeit plays with a higher reward). That introduces a pretty large variance to the guy week to week, something I'm not sure I'd want as the 20th WR off the board.

 

[Modog814]

If Newton got the stats the OP projects, I would gladly take him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 630 rush yards is another 1800 pass yards in my league...30 TDs and 5500 equivalent pass yards? Sign me up. Just doesn't seem to jive with what is being said about Newton.

The most recent draft I was in, Newton went 14th overall (12 team standard scoring, 0 PPR). I will let others debate the merits of that pick.

I'm not worried about where he's going. Just saying that it doesn't make sense to project those stats for him and also say he won't be worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you told me that I could draft Newton with my 2nd pick and he'd have 5500 eq. pass yards and 30TDs at year's end, but he wouldn't do any better or worse, I'd take him in a heartbeat.

A lot has to do with individual league scoring. But my point is I believe that in general, I believe you can get comparable (or better) point production from other QB's that don't cost a mid 2nd. You could probably get the same production from Vick 2 full rounds later. I'd consider taking Newton in mid 3rd round, but not mid 2nd.ETA: I should also add that these are my initial purely math based projections and that may be the cause of some of the gap between what my projections are saying and what my logic is saying. Ultimately, my logic will be incorporated into the projections.

 

[MAC_32]

Kenny Britt.

He's and idiot and he's not healthy yet he's being drafted as a top 15 WR.

No thanks.

DAMN YOU AUTO CORRECT! DAMN YOU!

 

[Bankerguy]

Not buying:

QB-Romo is not a value this year. His production will slide into QB9-Q12 range.

RB-Chris Johnson scares the bejesus outta me

WR-Calvin as a first rounder.

TE-Gronk or Graham in the 2nd