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Players in contract year and fantasy football. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Reegus
- Start date
Absolutely. I believe in the theory that players are apt to turn it on in the final year of a contract, looking forward to a big payday from their current or future employer. Especially for a younger guy playing out his rookie contract; these guys usually have 3-4 years of experience so their natural ability should be able to shine since the mental part of the game has had time to slow down.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Warrior
Footballguy
And Fred Davis.
Clearly, what year of your contract you're in has a direct correlation with fantasy performance.
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And Jay Cutler? Sometimes it works sometimes it don't. I still take it into heavey consideration.
Looking back, this year's crop of expired contracts has really been bad.
Funny you mention him. I just traded for him and part of the allure is the contract year.
I know, no one cares about my team but I thought it relevant to my position. I'm a firm believer.
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KCitons
Footballguy
I'm not sure how many of the top players at a given position get a boost because of contract year. They usually get paid either way.
Also opportunity is everything. It usually takes an injury (or two) I use it as a bonus, or tie breaker when looking at waiver wire additions around mid season.
Also opportunity is everything. It usually takes an injury (or two) I use it as a bonus, or tie breaker when looking at waiver wire additions around mid season.
tone1oc
Footballguy
I try to keep abstract things like motivation and commitment out of the evaluation process. If you think about it, if you do evaluate this way you are working from the notion that most if not all NFL players only try (or try harder) in contract years.
Fact is we can never know what motivates a person day in day out and year in, year out. This is not to say that there are some players who have performed well in a contract year. But I'd say that of those that have, only a small percentage tried or focused more than any other year when all things are equal.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Espn actually did a story on this and I forget the numbers but it was right around 50 percent of NFL players have a better year and 50 percent have a worse year then the year before. So it is a myth
tone1oc
Footballguy
Perhaps another explanation could be a lot of times players in a contract year are playing for the proverbial lives in the NFL. But most of those type players wouldn't be on the fantasy radar.
Does anyone have some good example(s) of good to all pro players that have outperformed their career average in contract years?
Does anyone have some good example(s) of good to all pro players that have outperformed their career average in contract years?
KCitons
Footballguy
As a salesperson I never discount the motivation of money. If I knew that after signing a minimal contract for 4 years that I'd get a 10x increase in my pay by selling X amount more in the year before my contract expires then I'd be working very hard to sell X amount more the year before my contract expires.
I've got to believe that these NFL players feel the same way. If they continue to show value over the first 3 years of their original contract and then outdo production in year 4 they know they are getting PAID. NFL careers are short and money is a huge motivator.
Of course the player's skill and situation is a big factor when drafting as the OP inquired.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Sure, but a truly good salesman would try very hard to sell X amount more every year regardless. Plus it's apples and oranges because the NFL is so much more competitive than even the best sales jobs. There aren't too many people that can not try their hardest and succeed in the NFL. In sales you may be able to slack in the time in between golf courses and airports as long as you are meeting your quota, in the NFL their is another freak trying their damdest to take your job.
Catbird
Footballguy
I don't think there is ANY evidence that players performances are even 1% better in contract years. The studies show nothing. The game is so emotional already, teams pounding each other, bouncing and yelling in anticipation of the game, I think how high a guy gets for a game is just how high that guy gets for a game. I think this theory is only slightly less mis-guided than the theories that players like Bennett or Fleener will be their QB's favorite because they played with that same QB (or coach) in college, or - worst of all - that players who come from a school who has turned out players before that didn't have enough heart or couldn't beat press coverage will be victim to those same shortcomings.
I think we try to create cause and effect in our minds (humans always seeking to put things in order) for people who are in a very different situation, doing this every day of their lives, who might note those links, but in practice will do the absolute best they can and throw to the absolute most reliable (or most open) pass catcher at game time. IMO the desire to win, to keep their job or to be the best is what got these guys here in the vast majority of cases, and they are going do what's best for them and the team every play, every week.
I think we try to create cause and effect in our minds (humans always seeking to put things in order) for people who are in a very different situation, doing this every day of their lives, who might note those links, but in practice will do the absolute best they can and throw to the absolute most reliable (or most open) pass catcher at game time. IMO the desire to win, to keep their job or to be the best is what got these guys here in the vast majority of cases, and they are going do what's best for them and the team every play, every week.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Well said, and I completely agree. A very good (and frustrating) example is the comparison of Lacy to Richardson which I still hear after everything we now know. The worst part about this is that it is completely pick and choose. Nobody is going to go comparing Stephen Hill and Megatron, and yet will credit Georgia Tech as commonality between Megatron and Demaryius Thomas.
The more managers are influenced by collegiate or geographical or familiarity nuances, the better off I am.
