Players Most Likely to NOT Return Value at ADP (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

QB - Wilson - He will not be expected to throw as much as Denver should lean on the run game. Plus, Wilson himself does not run like he used to

Seattle was #24 in pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Denver did not trade all the draft capital for Wilson and give him the huge contract extension so he can pass less.

Over the past 3 seasons, Wilson is #4 in rushing attempts, #4 in QB rushing yards, and #6 in QB ypc among QBs with at least 100 rushing attempts. IMO the narrative that his rushing ability has declined seems overstated.

RB - Henry - This one is easy to me. People ready to bury Zeke, yet Henry is older and has just as many miles. And he doesn't catch. And he lost a guy who received attention from the D

Careers to date:

• Elliott - 1730 rushes, 296 receptions, 2026 touches
• Henry - 1557 rushes, 107 receptions, 1664 touches

I don't necessarily disagree on Henry, but Elliott does have 22% more career touches at this point, even though they both entered the league in 2016.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

QB - Wilson - He will not be expected to throw as much as Denver should lean on the run game. Plus, Wilson himself does not run like he used to

Seattle was #24 in pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Denver did not trade all the draft capital for Wilson and give him the huge contract extension so he can pass less.

Over the past 3 seasons, Wilson is #4 in rushing attempts, #4 in QB rushing yards, and #6 in QB ypc among QBs with at least 100 rushing attempts. IMO the narrative that his rushing ability has declined seems overstated.

RB - Henry - This one is easy to me. People ready to bury Zeke, yet Henry is older and has just as many miles. And he doesn't catch. And he lost a guy who received attention from the D

Careers to date:

• Elliott - 1730 rushes, 296 receptions, 2026 touches
• Henry - 1557 rushes, 107 receptions, 1664 touches

I don't necessarily disagree on Henry, but Elliott does have 22% more career touches at this point, even though they both entered the league in 2016.

And Henry has no Tony to share touches with.

 

[LawFitz]

Count me in as thinking you guys will be sorry for fading Hurts, Jacobs, Kittle and Waller this season (health as always, permitting). Rest of the names here - including Gabe Davis, who I love - I can buy into as ADP avoids, but I believe those four have high floors, well in line with their positional ADPs, and as or more importantly, high ceilings that can win championships given those ADPs.

Funnest part of this game is having these divergent views, though. Your trash is my cash and vice versa.

 

[Deamon]

Dionte Johnson.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Whoever gets injured the earliest.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Count me in as thinking you guys will be sorry for fading Hurts, Jacobs, Kittle and Waller this season (health as always, permitting). Rest of the names here - including Gabe Davis, who I love - I can buy into as ADP avoids, but I believe those four have high floors, well in line with their positional ADPs, and as or more importantly, high ceilings that can win championships given those ADPs.

Funnest part of this game is having these divergent views, though. Your trash is my cash and vice versa.

I don’t know if everyone is necessarily fading every player they’ve posted.

Topics like this are interesting for conversational purposes - nice to glean insight to players/situations you might not have otherwise.

Some of the fades are risk management. Rational or otherwise, I can understand staying away from a player if you feel the situation or perceived injury risk is too great a variable.

And the context of value vs ADP is important here - as I said with Pitts a few times, I love the player and don’t love the ADP. I would absolutely draft Pitts if he fell another round-ish

I roster a few of the players mentioned in this topic. I take most of it with a grain of salt.

 

[BassNBrew]

QB #1 Allen

RB #1 Taylor

WR #1 Kupp

TE #1 Kelce

Those are your correct answers to the question.

Well this post isn't aging well. Kupp may have already clinched WR#1.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

QB #1 Allen

RB #1 Taylor

WR #1 Kupp

TE #1 Kelce

Those are your correct answers to the question.

Well this post isn't aging well. Kupp may have already clinched WR#1.

Allen may have also already clenched QB1 as well. Lol

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well this post isn't aging well. Kupp may have already clinched WR#1.

It’s 1 game. I am not at all surprised that Kupp did Kupp things for 1 game. I have concerns about him doing it for 17 games.

Plus the Bills were missing their number 1 corner.

 

[Payne]

QB - Wilson - He will not be expected to throw as much as Denver should lean on the run game. Plus, Wilson himself does not run like he used to

Seattle was #24 in pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Denver did not trade all the draft capital for Wilson and give him the huge contract extension so he can pass less.

Over the past 3 seasons, Wilson is #4 in rushing attempts, #4 in QB rushing yards, and #6 in QB ypc among QBs with at least 100 rushing attempts. IMO the narrative that his rushing ability has declined seems overstated.

RB - Henry - This one is easy to me. People ready to bury Zeke, yet Henry is older and has just as many miles. And he doesn't catch. And he lost a guy who received attention from the D

Careers to date:

• Elliott - 1730 rushes, 296 receptions, 2026 touches
• Henry - 1557 rushes, 107 receptions, 1664 touches

I don't necessarily disagree on Henry, but Elliott does have 22% more career touches at this point, even though they both entered the league in 2016.

And Henry has no Tony to share touches with.

QB - Wilson - He will not be expected to throw as much as Denver should lean on the run game. Plus, Wilson himself does not run like he used to

Seattle was #24 in pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Denver did not trade all the draft capital for Wilson and give him the huge contract extension so he can pass less.

Over the past 3 seasons, Wilson is #4 in rushing attempts, #4 in QB rushing yards, and #6 in QB ypc among QBs with at least 100 rushing attempts. IMO the narrative that his rushing ability has declined seems overstated.

RB - Henry - This one is easy to me. People ready to bury Zeke, yet Henry is older and has just as many miles. And he doesn't catch. And he lost a guy who received attention from the D

Careers to date:

• Elliott - 1730 rushes, 296 receptions, 2026 touches
• Henry - 1557 rushes, 107 receptions, 1664 touches

I don't necessarily disagree on Henry, but Elliott does have 22% more career touches at this point, even though they both entered the league in 2016.

While I agree with Wilson to some extent, I don't think Denver is looking to air it out in that division. I believe they will want to control the clock.

And I was not directly comparing carries between Henry and Zeke. They both have logged a ton of miles throughout college and the NFL.
And let's not forget the initial question...."player most likely NOT to return value AT ADP. Henry a 1st rounder. Zeke a 3rd or even 4th rounder.
I feel the odds are much greater that Henry will not return value at his ADP over Zeke and his. Disagree?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

While I agree with Wilson to some extent, I don't think Denver is looking to air it out in that division. I believe they will want to control the clock.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth

- Mike Tyson

Every team wants to run and control the clock. Against the Chargers, Raiders, & Chiefs offenses that’s not usually possible.

Denver will be throwing plenty this year. They didn’t go get Russel Wilson to make him play like Jimmy Garoppolo.

 

[yoman]

While I agree with Wilson to some extent, I don't think Denver is looking to air it out in that division. I believe they will want to control the clock.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth

- Mike Tyson

Every team wants to run and control the clock. Against the Chargers, Raiders, & Chiefs offenses that’s not usually possible.

Denver will be throwing plenty this year. They didn’t go get Russel Wilson to make him play like Jimmy Garoppolo.

I think you are crazy to put Wilson in the not return value category because he was about the 9th QB taken on most boards which means you probably waited on QB when you selected him. I agree with HSG that they didn't get Russ to be a game manager. He was injured last season and did not seem to ever be right after the surgery. I think he is in line for a comeback - he did throw for ~40 tds in 2020.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think you are crazy to put Wilson in the not return value category because he was about the 9th QB taken on most boards which means you probably waited on QB when you selected him.

This part, too - he was the 10th QB taken in my league, at 8.08

Getting return on that value is pretty easy, IMO.

 

[Tau837]

And I was not directly comparing carries between Henry and Zeke. They both have logged a ton of miles throughout college and the NFL.
And let's not forget the initial question...."player most likely NOT to return value AT ADP. Henry a 1st rounder. Zeke a 3rd or even 4th rounder.
I feel the odds are much greater that Henry will not return value at his ADP over Zeke and his. Disagree?

I agree, which is why I said I didn't necessarily disagree with your overall point. I disagreed with "just as many miles".

 

[Ilov80s]

Whoever said Allen Robinson and Cam Akers is in the poll position here. I liked Robinson (though not enough to get him anywhere) but Cam’s ADP was a mass delusion. He went 2nd round in two of my drafts. I do not get it.

 

[BassNBrew]

While I agree with Wilson to some extent, I don't think Denver is looking to air it out in that division. I believe they will want to control the clock.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth

- Mike Tyson

Every team wants to run and control the clock. Against the Chargers, Raiders, & Chiefs offenses that’s not usually possible.

Denver will be throwing plenty this year. They didn’t go get Russel Wilson to make him play like Jimmy Garoppolo.

I think you are crazy to put Wilson in the not return value category because he was about the 9th QB taken on most boards which means you probably waited on QB when you selected him. I agree with HSG that they didn't get Russ to be a game manager. He was injured last season and did not seem to ever be right after the surgery. I think he is in line for a comeback - he did throw for ~40 tds in 2020.

I think you are crazy to put Wilson in the not return value category because he was about the 9th QB taken on most boards which means you probably waited on QB when you selected him.

This part, too - he was the 10th QB taken in my league, at 8.08

Getting return on that value is pretty easy, IMO.

Let's Cook.

I got lucky and missed out on Russ in most of my drafts....

unfortunately that meant I took my super value pick Four Fantasy Points and a Cloud of Bust Carr.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

While I agree with Wilson to some extent, I don't think Denver is looking to air it out in that division. I believe they will want to control the clock.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth

- Mike Tyson

Every team wants to run and control the clock. Against the Chargers, Raiders, & Chiefs offenses that’s not usually possible.

Denver will be throwing plenty this year. They didn’t go get Russel Wilson to make him play like Jimmy Garoppolo.

I think you are crazy to put Wilson in the not return value category because he was about the 9th QB taken on most boards which means you probably waited on QB when you selected him. I agree with HSG that they didn't get Russ to be a game manager. He was injured last season and did not seem to ever be right after the surgery. I think he is in line for a comeback - he did throw for ~40 tds in 2020.

I think you are crazy to put Wilson in the not return value category because he was about the 9th QB taken on most boards which means you probably waited on QB when you selected him.

This part, too - he was the 10th QB taken in my league, at 8.08

Getting return on that value is pretty easy, IMO.

Let's Cook.

I got lucky and missed out on Russ in most of my drafts....

unfortunately that meant I took my super value pick Four Fantasy Points and a Cloud of Bust Carr.

I’m rolling with Brady & Fields QBBC after trades. Russ is cooked.

 

[yoman]

Let's Cook.

I got lucky and missed out on Russ in most of my drafts....

unfortunately that meant I took my super value pick Four Fantasy Points and a Cloud of Bust Carr.

I did the same thing as well. I grabbed Carr and Cousins in one league. I thought Carr was going to be a really consistent option this year but grabbed Kirk just In case