Playoff Expectations (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.

This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.

(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).

Updated Jan 02.

AFC:

1. New England (2.54 games)

2. Indianapolis (1.95)

3. San Diego (2.03)

4. Pittsburgh (1.52)

5. Jacksonville (1.66)

6. Tennessee (1.29)

NFC:

1. Dallas (2.25)

2. Green Bay (2.19)

3. Seattle (1.59)

4. Tampa Bay (1.58)

5. New York Giants (1.73)

6. Washington (1.67)

Sorted:

1. New England (2.54 games)

2. Dallas (2.25)

3. Green Bay (2.19)

4. San Diego (2.03)

5. Indianapolis (1.95)

6. New York Giants (1.73)

7. Washington (1.67)

8. Jacksonville (1.66)

9. Seattle (1.59)

10. Tampa Bay (1.58)

11. Pittsburgh (1.52)

12. Tennessee (1.29)

 

[fred_1_15301]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).AFC:1. New England - 2.52. Indianapolis - 2.23. San Diego - 2.04. Pittsburgh - 1.55. Jacksonville - 1.56. Tennessee - 1.3NFC:1. Dallas - 2.12. Green Bay - 2.13. Seattle - 1.94. Tampa Bay - 1.85. New York Giants - 1.66. Washington - 1.5

Is this based on some type of formula?

 

[BassNBrew]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).AFC:1. New England - 2.52. Indianapolis - 2.23. San Diego - 2.04. Pittsburgh - 1.55. Jacksonville - 1.56. Tennessee - 1.3NFC:1. Dallas - 2.12. Green Bay - 2.13. Seattle - 1.94. Tampa Bay - 1.85. New York Giants - 1.66. Washington - 1.5

JP, you have Pit/Jax with 0% chance of winning a second game. Tenn is too high. I'd give them virtually zero chance at NE so basically you have the TN/SD game at 30/70. I don't see it.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).AFC:1. New England - 2.52. Indianapolis - 2.23. San Diego - 2.04. Pittsburgh - 1.55. Jacksonville - 1.56. Tennessee - 1.3NFC:1. Dallas - 2.12. Green Bay - 2.13. Seattle - 1.94. Tampa Bay - 1.85. New York Giants - 1.66. Washington - 1.5

Is this based on some type of formula?

Not particularly, but I'll be a tad more scientific on the 2nd pass.....Surprised by any of it?

 

[fred_1_15301]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).AFC:1. New England - 2.52. Indianapolis - 2.23. San Diego - 2.04. Pittsburgh - 1.55. Jacksonville - 1.56. Tennessee - 1.3NFC:1. Dallas - 2.12. Green Bay - 2.13. Seattle - 1.94. Tampa Bay - 1.85. New York Giants - 1.66. Washington - 1.5

Is this based on some type of formula?

Not particularly, but I'll be a tad more scientific on the 2nd pass.....Surprised by any of it?

I think pittsburgh should be lower and Jacksonville should be higher. Also, given the way Washington is playing, I would think they would be a little higher as well.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.

This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.

(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).

AFC:

1. New England - 2.5

2. Indianapolis - 2.2

3. San Diego - 2.0

4. Pittsburgh - 1.5

5. Jacksonville - 1.5

6. Tennessee - 1.3

NFC:

1. Dallas - 2.1

2. Green Bay - 2.1

3. Seattle - 1.9

4. Tampa Bay - 1.8

5. New York Giants - 1.6

6. Washington - 1.5

JP, you have Pit/Jax with 0% chance of winning a second game.

Tenn is too high. I'd give them virtually zero chance at NE so basically you have the TN/SD game at 30/70. I don't see it.

That's not an accurate statement.Let's say Pitt/Jax is a coin flip.

Then give the winner a 25% chance of winning their next game (probably in Foxboro) - aggressive number, but let's go with that. There's also a chance that they go to Indy, but that's dependent upon Tennessee winning. I will put it at 30% for now.

That puts the odds of:

1 game (lose first week) - 50%

3+ games (win twice and go on) - 50% x 25% = 12.5% (if they play NE) x 70% = 8.75%

3+ games (win twice and go on vs. Indy) - 50% x 40% vs Indy x 30% = 3.75%

Total chance of 3+ games = 12.5%

2 games (win then lose) - 37.5%

So to work that out:

50%*1 + 37.5%*2 + 3*12.5% = 0.5+ 0.75+ 0.375 = 1.625

So like I said, I'll be a bit more rigorous tomorrow, but the chances of 2 and 3 (and even the remote chance of 4) games are accounted for.

 

[BassNBrew]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.

This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.

(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).

AFC:

1. New England - 2.5

2. Indianapolis - 2.2

3. San Diego - 2.0

4. Pittsburgh - 1.5

5. Jacksonville - 1.5

6. Tennessee - 1.3

NFC:

1. Dallas - 2.1

2. Green Bay - 2.1

3. Seattle - 1.9

4. Tampa Bay - 1.8

5. New York Giants - 1.6

6. Washington - 1.5

JP, you have Pit/Jax with 0% chance of winning a second game.

Tenn is too high. I'd give them virtually zero chance at NE so basically you have the TN/SD game at 30/70. I don't see it.

That's not an accurate statement.Let's say Pitt/Jax is a coin flip.

Then give the winner a 25% chance of winning their next game (probably in Foxboro) - aggressive number, but let's go with that. There's also a chance that they go to Indy, but that's dependent upon Tennessee winning. I will put it at 30% for now.

That puts the odds of:

1 game (lose first week) - 50%

3+ games (win twice and go on) - 50% x 25% = 12.5% (if they play NE) x 70% = 8.75%

3+ games (win twice and go on vs. Indy) - 50% x 40% vs Indy x 30% = 3.75%

Total chance of 3+ games = 12.5%

2 games (win then lose) - 37.5%

So to work that out:

50%*1 + 37.5%*2 + 3*12.5% = 0.5+ 0.75+ 0.375 = 1.625

So like I said, I'll be a bit more rigorous tomorrow, but the chances of 2 and 3 (and even the remote chance of 4) games are accounted for.

4. Pittsburgh - 1.55. Jacksonville - 1.51.5 + 1.5 = 3They play each other which is two games. One has to win so that's a third game the following week. No room for any more games.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Tenn is too high. I'd give them virtually zero chance at NE so basically you have the TN/SD game at 30/70. I don't see it.

I'll go deeper tomorrow, but just to touch on this:SD is a 9 or 10 point fav right now in Las Vegas.The money line is about -400 on SD, meaning you have to bet $400 to win $100. That puts them as a 80% favorite to win.Tennessee is about +350, or 2:7 odds against winning (same as 100:350). That's 22% chance they win.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

FWIW, this is my take on how many games each team will play in the postseason.

This is a rough draft and I'll probably revise them tomorrow.

(Note - Each conference's teams must add up to 11 games - 5 intraconference games and the Super Bowl).

AFC:

1. New England - 2.5

2. Indianapolis - 2.2

3. San Diego - 2.0

4. Pittsburgh - 1.5

5. Jacksonville - 1.5

6. Tennessee - 1.3

NFC:

1. Dallas - 2.1

2. Green Bay - 2.1

3. Seattle - 1.9

4. Tampa Bay - 1.8

5. New York Giants - 1.6

6. Washington - 1.5

JP, you have Pit/Jax with 0% chance of winning a second game.

Tenn is too high. I'd give them virtually zero chance at NE so basically you have the TN/SD game at 30/70. I don't see it.

That's not an accurate statement.Let's say Pitt/Jax is a coin flip.

Then give the winner a 25% chance of winning their next game (probably in Foxboro) - aggressive number, but let's go with that. There's also a chance that they go to Indy, but that's dependent upon Tennessee winning. I will put it at 30% for now.

That puts the odds of:

1 game (lose first week) - 50%

3+ games (win twice and go on) - 50% x 25% = 12.5% (if they play NE) x 70% = 8.75%

3+ games (win twice and go on vs. Indy) - 50% x 40% vs Indy x 30% = 3.75%

Total chance of 3+ games = 12.5%

2 games (win then lose) - 37.5%

So to work that out:

50%*1 + 37.5%*2 + 3*12.5% = 0.5+ 0.75+ 0.375 = 1.625

So like I said, I'll be a bit more rigorous tomorrow, but the chances of 2 and 3 (and even the remote chance of 4) games are accounted for.

4. Pittsburgh - 1.5 5. Jacksonville - 1.51.5 + 1.5 = 3They play each other which is two games. One has to win so that's a third game the following week. No room for any more games.

Good point, but I'll have to run the numbers tomorrow and see. Odds are they'll probably tick up slightly, but not much.Based on the numbers above it looks like 1.6 is the better number for both.

Assuming New England is 80% in every one of their games, the number does drop to about 2.44.

1 game = 20%

3 games = 80% x 80% = 64%

2 games = 80% x 20% = 16%

That's 0.2 + 1.92 + 0.32 = 2.44.

 

[Fallerjw]

TEN should be at most 1.1 They barely beat the Colts 2nd and 3rd team.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Updated (and I'll change Post 1).

Yes they are based on a formula.

Here they are:

AFC:

1. New England (2.54 games)

2. Indianapolis (1.96)

3. San Diego (2.03)

4. Pittsburgh (1.60)

5. Jacksonville (1.58)

6. Tennessee (1.29)

NFC:

1. Dallas (2.25)

2. Green Bay (2.19)

3. Seattle (1.59)

4. Tampa Bay (1.58)

5. New York Giants (1.73)

6. Washington (1.67)

Sorted:

1. New England (2.54 games)

2. Dallas (2.25)

3. Green Bay (2.19)

4. San Diego (2.03)

5. Indianapolis (1.96)

6. New York Giants (1.73)

7. Washington (1.67)

8. Pittsburgh (1.60)

9. Seattle (1.59)

10. Jacksonville (1.58)

10. Tampa Bay (1.58)

12. Tennessee (1.29)

 

[Modog814]

I think assuming any team has an 80% chance of winning any game (let alone every game) in the playoffs is a mistake.

Pitt should definitely be lower, Jacksonville higher. Indy/SD look alright, NE lower. Tenn alright

Giants are too high. Dallas and GB are a little high considering the way they've been playing the last couple weeks.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think assuming any team has an 80% chance of winning any game (let alone every game) in the playoffs is a mistake.

Las Vegas thinks otherwise, and I tend to agree.

Pitt should definitely be lower, Jacksonville higher. Indy/SD look alright, NE lower. Tenn alright

Jax is a slight favorite, and the numbers reflect both that and their strong likelihood of losing to the Pats.

Giants are too high. Dallas and GB are a little high considering the way they've been playing the last couple weeks.

That's how the numbers worked out.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Whoops.

Found the error. Jax/Pitt looks backwards.

Fixing now.

Jax is at 1.66, Pitt at 1.58.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

First post corrected due to Jax/Pitt error.

AFC:

1. New England (2.54 games)

2. Indianapolis (1.95)

3. San Diego (2.03)

4. Pittsburgh (1.52)

5. Jacksonville (1.66)

6. Tennessee (1.29)

NFC:

1. Dallas (2.25)

2. Green Bay (2.19)

3. Seattle (1.59)

4. Tampa Bay (1.58)

5. New York Giants (1.73)

6. Washington (1.67)

Sorted:

1. New England (2.54 games)

2. Dallas (2.25)

3. Green Bay (2.19)

4. San Diego (2.03)

5. Indianapolis (1.95)

6. New York Giants (1.73)

7. Washington (1.67)

8. Jacksonville (1.66)

9. Seattle (1.59)

10. Tampa Bay (1.58)

11. Pittsburgh (1.52)

12. Tennessee (1.29)

 

[bshipper]

OK, I will be the first to throw out that I think Seattle is way too low. I realize that Washington is playing well, but I don't like their chances across the country, on the road in Seattle. Honestly, I think Seattle has a good chance to win in Green Bay (Hasselbeck has to make up for his blunder the last time he was in a playoff game there).

 

[Modog814]

I think assuming any team has an 80% chance of winning any game (let alone every game) in the playoffs is a mistake.

Las Vegas thinks otherwise, and I tend to agree.

No,Vegas believes that the "mass of people" think otherwise and I agree with that and the Mass of People generally lose (faulty assumptions). I'm not saying NE isn't going to win the Superbowl, I'm just saying that making an assumption of 80% is very high. What happens if Brady gets hurt, or Moss tweaks a hamstring. But I'm not buying that NE has a 80% chance of beating Indy. Nor SD, nor Jacksonville for that matter. I'll give them 80% against Pitt and Tenn, but there's IMHO way too much uncertainty (injuries, play, weather, referee calls) in football to give any team a consistent 80% across the board, especially against these "elite" teams. It's not like they're playing the Jets, Bills or Dolphins here. They're playing teams that have double digit wins and to expect any of them to roll over is a mistake.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think assuming any team has an 80% chance of winning any game (let alone every game) in the playoffs is a mistake.

Las Vegas thinks otherwise, and I tend to agree.

No,Vegas believes that the "mass of people" think otherwise and I agree with that and the Mass of People generally lose (faulty assumptions). I'm not saying NE isn't going to win the Superbowl, I'm just saying that making an assumption of 80% is very high. What happens if Brady gets hurt, or Moss tweaks a hamstring. But I'm not buying that NE has a 80% chance of beating Indy. Nor SD, nor Jacksonville for that matter. I'll give them 80% against Pitt and Tenn, but there's IMHO way too much uncertainty (injuries, play, weather, referee calls) in football to give any team a consistent 80% across the board, especially against these "elite" teams. It's not like they're playing the Jets, Bills or Dolphins here. They're playing teams that have double digit wins and to expect any of them to roll over is a mistake.

While in a normal year I'd agree, there's some pretty tough evidence to go against that.Again, this is all formulaic, so it isn't my opinion AT ALL. I'm just reporting what the numbers (and the voices in my head) tell me.New England will be a double-digit favorite against everyone that they may play at home this January. That translates to about a 90% win percentage, given that they will be such a big favorite.We have a current example on the board - San Diego is favored by 9 or 10 this week and are about an 80% favorite (about -400 on the money line). Whether you agree with that or not, historically speaking - those numbers are usually pretty close to accurate.It's up to you to believe what you will, but the project point spreads and vegas lines / win % are used to come up with these numbers.At least if you choose to think otherwise you now have a frame of reference to check yourself against.