Pretty simple. Pick a team you think will win this week and lose in conference championship game. Next week you pick team you think will lose Super Bowl.
Right, but that Denver/Pats game I have no clue who I think will win. It's looking like I have to pick Atlanta, but picking the lowest spread team in a survivor pool seems risky, and Seattle could come out and win that game.
Will you have more confidence about NE/Denver next week than you do this week? Probably not. Pick next week's loser between those two this week. I'd rather kick the can down the road in a survivor.
Well my plan was kinda to take atlanta this week. Then take Green bay/SF winner next week. Then in the superbowl I'd still have both denver and new england around so i'd pick whichever one of those made the super bowl to win it.Other option is to go New England this week, then Green bay/sf winner the next week... that way I THINK I'd prob make it to the superbowl, but I'd have no teams to pick in the super bowl (and therefore would be eliminated) if New england beats denver in the title game.
I haven't run the numbers, but mathematically speaking, that last option is something you want to avoid
at all costs.The goal in a survivor pool format is to give yourself the best chance to win
overall, not week-to-week - because finishing 2nd gives you nothing more than finishing last. In a traditional survivor pool the two goals generally aren't in conflict with one another, because there are more possible winners than there are weeks. But in a playoff format, this is a key distinction.
You're usually best off starting by determining which conference you think is more likely to win the Super Bowl, then picking winners for every other playoff round
from the other conference. That way you're guaranteed to have a "live option" for the SB if you make it there.
Thus if you think one of DEN/NE will win the SB, pick SEA/ATL this week and GB/SF next week.
If you think someone from the NFC will win, pick DEN this week and NE next (or vice versa, depending on your instincts there).
Now, I suspect that this for year in particular, even if you think the AFC will win the SB, you might actually want to go with option (B), both because I think the increased chances of picking the next 2 weeks successfully from the AFC (vs. the NFC, where the games are more a toss-up) outweigh the small advantage the AFC team might have in the SB itself and because you've already picked BAL - and you can't discount the small but statistically significant chance that they win the AFCC this year. But that's probably a gut call as the math might be pretty close.
I might run the numbers to test this hypothesis if I have a chance.
