Playoffs practically set with 1/4 of the season to go (1 Viewer)

[The_Man]

I don’t remember a year where the playoff picture was more firmly locked in place with a quarter of the season to go. In the AFC, the Pats are clearly the #1. If the Colts just go 3-1, they will be #2, unless Pittsburgh wins out (including a win over New England). The Steelers hold a 2.5 game lead over Cleveland, and will lock up the #3 seed by going 2-2, unless San Diego wins out. And San Diego holds a 2.5 game lead over Denver in the West for the #4 seed.

Jacksonville has a 1-game lead over Cleveland for the # 5 spot and only has to beat Carolina, Oakland and Houston to clinch that spot. Cleveland holds the #6 spot over Buffalo by one game. The Browns and Bills play in Cleveland next week. The Browns can secure the Wild Card by winning that game, and have a much easier finishing schedule than the Bills, to the point where they could still finish with a better record even if they lose that game at home.

That makes the first round games:

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Jacksonville at San Diego

Two great games, right?

In the NFC, Dallas and Green Bay are locked in at 1 and 2. Seattle has a huge game at home vs. Az this week; if they win, they go up 3 with 3 to play and clinch the tie-breaker. If they lose, they’re only a game ahead of the Cardinals and Arizona will have swept them. I think Seattle wins the division. Tampa already has a 3-game divisional lead, and they’re currently tied with Seattle for the #3 seed at 8-4. But Seattle beat Tampa in Week 1 and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. If you figure both teams win their divisions and go 3-1 to finish the season, then Seattle would be #3 and Tampa would be #4.

The Giants have a two-game lead for the # 5 seed, and the #6 is a total crap shoot, with Minnesota, Detroit and Arizona at 6-6, and five other teams at 5-7. It’s just too early to tell. But you can bet that whatever team emerges from that pile will be playing pretty good football at the end of the season, because whoever wins that last spot will likely have to go at least 3-1 to win it. I have my eye on the Vikings.

This brings up one interesting scenario. Say you’re the Seahawks and in Week 17 you’ll be the #3 seed with a win at Atlanta, or the #4 if you lose. Would you rather lose and assure yourself of facing Eli and the Giants, or would you win and possible set up a Wild Card game vs. a red hot Vikings team that’s rushing for 250 yards per game?

At any rate, the playoff picture is mostly set, and after Arizona-Seattle this week and Buffalo-Cleveland next week, everything might be totally locked in place except the #6 NFC team.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

arent Tennessee and Cleveland tied for the #6 AFC slot?

 

[ctdub]

Can Pitt and Cleveland play in the first round? For some reason I'm thinking they can't because they're in the same division. Does anyone know this?

 

[RBM]

Can Pitt and Cleveland play in the first round? For some reason I'm thinking they can't because they're in the same division. Does anyone know this?

There is no such rule in football. They can play.They played a great wild card game a few years ago.

 

[wadegarrett]

Browns are a loooooooooooooooooong way from securing a playoff spot.

 

[Bushead]

Can Pitt and Cleveland play in the first round? For some reason I'm thinking they can't because they're in the same division. Does anyone know this?

There is no such rule in football. They can play.They played a great wild card game a few years ago.

Eagles and Giants played round 1 last year

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Can Pitt and Cleveland play in the first round? For some reason I'm thinking they can't because they're in the same division. Does anyone know this?

There is no such rule in football. They can play.They played a great wild card game a few years ago.

Eagles and Giants played round 1 last year

this used to be a rule, that if the wildcard and division champ were from the same division, they would not play in round 1. But when the expanded from 5 to 6 teams, the rule was changed.

 

[Synthesizer]

I would disagree completely. There are 3 spots locked up.... NE, Dal, and GB. Every other spot is up for grabs with plenty of important games left to play. You're assuming that all of the division leaders will finish the year strong, but as we've seen it wouldn't be a surprise if one or two of the teams finished 1-3. What if Arizona beats Seattle, and Buffalo beats Cleveland? Heck, in the NFC there are 8 teams within 1 game of that last wild card spot.

PLENTY of games remaining to determine playoff teams and seeding.

 

[dickey moe]

Green Bay hasn't clinched yet.

 

[dudaman]

The G-Men haven't clinched diddly yet. They are not playing playoff football and could still slip back to the pack and have to fight for a spot. And since their last game is vs. the 15-0 Patriots, they better get it going NOW.

 

[The_Man]

Two weeks to go, and the playoff picture hasn't changed that much.

In the AFC, seeds 1 and 2 are locked up.

For #3, San Diego has moved ahead of Pittsburgh based on AFC record and can clinch that spot with wins in its last two games (Denver, @Oak). There's suddenly some urgency to winning the #3 spot as the #4 team will have to host Jacksonville (#5). Pitt and Cle are tied for the #4 spot, but Pitt holds the head-to-head tie-breaker and would have to finish a game behind Cleveland for the Browns to take the #4. If Cleveland wins this week, they just about clinch a Wild Card because they would be a game ahead of Tennessee with one to play and hold the conference record tie-breaker.

This sets up an interesting playoff scenario:

Cle @ SD

Jax @ Pitt

Jacksonville just won at Pittsburgh. If they would win again in this scenario, and the Chargers beat Cleveland, the division playoffs would then be:

Jax @ NE

SD @ Indy

Those would be two great games, and I think that's the divisional round opponent that New England would least like to face.

In the NFC, Dallas holds the head-to-head with GB and must only finish tied with the Pack to earn the #1 seed. Seattle is tied with Tampa, but holds the head-to-head tie-breaker for the #3 spot.

The really interesting question is now whether the Giants will hold on to their Wild Card spot, or will they finish with 3 straight losses and slip out of the playoffs. They play New England in Week 17, so this week's game at Buffalo is looking like a must win. This week's Redskins-Vikings game is huge, though it's bigger for the Vikes -- they can just about wrap up a spot with a win, but the Redskins would still need to beat Dallas in Week 17 to make the playoffs if they win this week. My guess is that the Vikings and Giants both end up as the only 9-7 teams (it's hard to imagine the sporadic Saints and Redskins winning out) which would make the Vikings the #5 seed based on their head-to-head win over the Giants.

The NFC definitely has an opportunity to witness some Week 17 shenanigans as teams position themselves for the playoffs. The Giants play on Saturday, so everyone will know their final record going into Sunday's game. If you're Tampa Bay and you know (for example) that losing in Week 17 assures you the #4 spot and a Wild Card game with the #5 Giants instead of the onrushing Vikings, do you tank?

There's still too much up in the air in the NFC to speculate much about playoff matchups, but I'm thinking there's more and more a chance that the Vikes get the #5 seed and that the Giants end up 9-7 and the #6 or even slip out of the playoffs altogether.

 

[lebrija]

The G-men are done. The saints will catch them. Too bad because I enjoy watching Eli pout. After each pick he looks like that little kid in the neighborhood that just got his dog stolen: "awwww shucks, not again"

 

[The_Man]

I agree that the Giants ard done. But by getting to 9 wins before falling apart, I still think they're going to back into the playoffs. It's clear that Seattle and Tampa would rather face the Giants than the Vikings in the Wild Card round.

But if the Saints do win out (Phil, @CHI) to get to 9-7, they would win a tie-breaker with the Giants (8-4 record in the NFC vs. the Giants' 7-5).

If Redskins, Giants and Vikings all finish 9-7, I'm not sure who would get in. The Redskins would own H2H over the Vikes, and the Vikes would hold H2H over the Giants, but I'm not sure who would own the Giants-Redskins tie -- they'd be 1-1 H2H, and have the same division and NFC record. And if the Saints were in a 4-way tie at 9-7, they would be the #5 seed based on their NFC record.

 

[The_Man]

OK - if Redskins and Giants finish in a 9-7 tie, the Redskins would hold the tie-breaker based on their 7-5 record in common games vs. the Giants 6-6. This common games edge would be based on Redskins wins over both Minn and Dallas, which is what they need to do to get to 9-7, and Giants losses to Buffalo and New England, which is what they need to do to get to 9-7. I see the Giants holding up their end, but think the Redskins will go 1-1 at best.

If the Redskins, Giants and Vikings finish in a 3-way tie at 9-7, the Redskins get the edge over the Giants as listed above and over the Vikes based on H2H (since they'll have to beat Minn this week to get to 9-7). They'll be #5 and the Vikes take the H2H edge over NYG to get #6.

If the Redskins and Vikings finish in a 2-way tie at 9-7, the Redskins will have the H2H edge.

If the Saints get into any kind of tie at 9-7, they win based on NFC record.

To sum up, the Saints win any tie-breaker among 9-7 teams. The Redskins win 9-7 tie-breakers vs. anyone except the Saints. The Vikings hold the 9-7 edge over the Giants, and the Giants -- if they falter to 9-7 -- would lose all tie-breakers with any other 9-7 team. The Giants really need to beat Buffalo this week to get to 10 wins or they will be playing for their playoff lives vs. New England on Saturday night in Week 17.

 

[Utter Chaos]

Browns Steelers are a loooooooooooooooooong way from securing a playoff spot.

FIXED.