Podunker's early RB rankings, tiering, with draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[podunker]

Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments

These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome.

Tier 1

LT

Westy

Adrian Peterson

Larry Johnson

Barber III

S. Jackson

These are the big dogs and if you have a top 6 pick you better take one of these guys. LJ demise has been greatly exaggerated in my book. He will be a stud, and could fall out of the first round. Westy is still the most underrated in PPR leagues. I’ll take any of them and be happy, but those two are the ones that could fall past the first six picks. I got LJ at 3.06 in one dynasty league draft. UNFREAKENBELIEVABLE!

Tier 2

Portis

Addai

Gore

These guys are all studs also, and should be taken in the first round. Portis has been falling in some drafts to the 2nd round. These nine RB’s should be the first players taken in all redraft leagues. If you can get two of them, Merry Christmas to you! I’ve gotten LJ and Portis a couple times picking late in the first round.

Tier 3

Bush

Lewis

McGahee

These guys will perform nicely, and will make a great bookend RB. I would probably take a one of my tier 1 WR’s over them if they were still available though. I would consider Brady over them also. Bush and Lewis are both going in the 3rd rounds. If I get a top three slot in the draft it would be nice to pick them in the beginning of the third, although honestly I think Jamal is the only guy that will be there in the 3rd.

Tier 4

Edge

MJD

T. Jones

Jacobs

Right now MJD is questionable to me because he is going too early. I would probably take a tier 2 WR over him. Edge and Jacobs are going 3rd or 4th round and will make good RB2’s. I love T. Jones this year, and will be jumping on him in round 4 or later. Right now his adp is late round 5, a steal at that point. If you think he will last to round 5, pick a nice tier 2 WR, tier 2 QB, or Witten in round 4.

Tier 5

Lynch

Grant

Graham

Turner

White

This is my no draft tier. It would take them falling a long way to draft one of these guys. My reasonings are different for each, and I’m sure my personal feelings about some play into my rankings. Let someone else draft these guys. Lynch has big trouble in my book off the field, and that may effect his play. Grant hasn’t proved himself enough for me. Same for Graham and Turner. White may represent some value, but I’m staying away. I’d much rather have T. Jones over anyone on this list, with the exception of Lynch. But Lynch’s adp makes him undraftable to me. I wouldn’t take him in the late second round. Hence, that’s’ the main reason he is in this tier. Realisticly he should be between MJD and T. Jones. Probably the rounds these guys are taken I will be taking a QB.

Tier 6

Parker

Brown

J. Jones

Maroney

De. Williams.

Parker could be the steal in this tier, and I almost put him in tier 4. I am one of those guys that don’t buy the rookie RB hype, unless the guy was a legit top talent, even then I’m skeptical. I would love to have Parker as my RB2 or RB3. He was being taken in the top 10 just a year ago. Brown’s ranking is based on the fact that I don’t know if he will be healthy enough to start the season on time. Both these players could move up in the following weeks. J. Jones will be the main back in Seattle, and will be a nice pickup as a weak RB2 if you went QB early. I think we’ll see the Maroney we saw at the end of the season last year. DeAngelo Williams is one of my sleeper picks. Fox has proven in the past that he likes the vets over the young guys. Williams can be explosive when given the chance. I think he gets the lions share of the carries in Carolina.

Tier 7

Rudi Johnson

McFadden

Ahman Green

Rudi is another one of those guys who was being taken high just a year ago. If he returns close to form, he could be a bargain. McFadden is a big question mark, and I won’t be taking him at his current adp. But someone will be carrying the ball in Oakland, he is the most likely candidate after that payday. It is yet to see if he can catch the ball out of the backfield. If he can I’d feel more secure with this ranking. Green is a steal this year in round 9. He will be the man if healthy in Houston. They paid him a lot to do that job. He could easily finish top 20 this year. I will be targeting him late in drafts.

Tier 8

Fred Taylor

Chester Taylor

Duece

The first two guys come from heavy running teams, but will be sharing carries. I still consider Fred a RB 1a on his team. Because he is the starter. Chester is definitely no. 2 on his team, but they run the ball a ton, and Peterson’s running style is hellacious. Duece is solid if he is healthy. I really think he is the key to the whole NO offense being successful. He makes Bush and Brees both better. I would take Green in the 9th over any of these guys in the 7th or 8th right now though.

Tier 9

Selvin Young

Norwood

Ricky Williams

Chris Johnson

Felix Jones

Kevin Smith

Stewart

Forte

These are the boom or bust guys in my book. Young could be a gem if he is really the guy in Denver. That’s a big if. Norwood can be explosive. His coach comes from Jacksonville were they ran the two RB package well. If they use Norwood like MJD, he will shine. Ricky will get the carries early in the season, and can productive. Who knows when Brown will be back for sure. I like Johnson the best of the rooks in PPR leagues. Once again he can be used like MJD or Bush and be productive. Jones value is based on his homerun potential in that offense. Smith, Stewart, and Forte are all guys that I have no idea about. They come into situations with no proven RB ahead of them, so they have the opportunity to produce. I’m just not sold on rooks.

Tier 10

Cadillac

K. Jones

T. Bell

These are guys to pick up late and hope they help you at the end of the season. K. Jones has the talent and I think he will end up on some roster. He could start in Chicago right now. He is the most talented of this group. Caddy may still get back for the season, and Gruden likes him. He has talent still. T. Bell may well be the starter in Detroit. They re-signed him for some reason. I think he got in Martz’s doghouse last year, and couldn’t get out. Marinelli likes him for some reason.

WR’s will be posted later today!

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

hey podunker thanks for putting this out there, but I have few comments and/or concerns.

DeAngelo/Stewart - Would Carolina waste a #11 overall pick on a RB if they thought that DeAngelo was the man?

Edge in Tier 4 is kinda flawed, the guy is on the wrong side of 30 and has lost a step, me personally I'd much rather have Lynch and Grant based on their upside alone.

I think your tier 9 did your post a little bit of injustice. Take a little more time and really rank those guys, that kinda looks like a catch all spot becuase your not sure what to make of the rookies. Forte, K.Smith and Selvin all look poised to grab the lions shares of the carries for their teams. and should be ranked higher and/or in a different tier than ricky williams for example.

Overall good job and nice post as with most people and myself included, the bottom of the tiers need the most work

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Great writeup, and I also agree with b_s_s's comments. I would add that Gore almost HAS to be in the #1 tier. He's been consistently in the top 4 picks of the drafts I have seen so far this year.

 

[Two Deep]

Hey Pudknocker pretty good stuff,

I ? Edge's ranking and Turner ahead of Parker is ? tionable as well.

 

[Captain Hook]

Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments

These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts.

I got LJ at 3.06 in one dynasty league draft.

These two are so vastly different that their use together when talking about one of your Tier 1 RB made me stop reading the rest.

 

[Hue G]

Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments

These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts.

I got LJ at 3.06 in one dynasty league draft.

These two are so vastly different that their use together when talking about one of your Tier 1 RB made me stop reading the rest.

I think he was just making a point that he believes LJ is undervalued, no need to get snobbish.

 

[barista]

I really like tiering. It lets you see how the teams are picking. In the mid rounds you could easily screw the ADP in favor of what I will trademark right here as the "Glut Strategy" if you've got a ton of parity options at WR and there's a distinct point advantage at RB or QB I'd take a back-up or horde before one of those WRs. Of course this falls into common sense but hey give it a name the "Glut Strategy."

 

[travdogg]

Thanks for putting this list out there. I disagree with a lot of it, but I like the effort.

One thing that stands out is that you said you think we'll see the Maroney from the end of last year, yet he's in tier-6. If Maroney sustains that performance for a full year he'll be a top-5 RB.

 

[stevegamer]

I have one issue with the tiering strategy: I don't like using ADP when tiering, and I won't use it to adjust.

I think one should set up the tiers based on expected production & risk. Where a player is likely to go is pretty meaningless to me when setting the tiers - if they are gone before I get to that tier, the ADP takes care of itself.

When it comes down to whom to actually take - that's when ADP is useful.

 

[Riffraff]

Edge in Tier 4 is kinda flawed, the guy is on the wrong side of 30 and has lost a step

He did say this is redraft and PPR scoring. Age shouldn't matter much in redrafts.In my 2007 leagues, Edge was the #10 RB in non-PPR scoring and #11 RB in PPR scoring. Whether he's lost a step (and yet improved his ranking) or if it was due to a larger than normal RB injury number last year, he's still got nice value.

I ? Edge's ranking and Turner ahead of Parker is ? tionable as well.

People keep thinking that Edge shares the rushing load. Not sure why. Mis-perception looms large. (Not saying you said this though)Any way you slice it, potentially getting a top 12 guy as a tier 4 or worse pick is pretty dang sweet.

 

[Riffraff]

I think your tier 9 did your post a little bit of injustice. Take a little more time and really rank those guys, that kinda looks like a catch all spot becuase your not sure what to make of the rookies. Forte, K.Smith and Selvin all look poised to grab the lions shares of the carries for their teams. and should be ranked higher and/or in a different tier than ricky williams for example.

I agree that Podunker needs to make decisions on at least 1 or 2 rookies to break into the middle pack. Earliest rookie is in the late 20s of this tiering/ranking.Not all rookies do well, but at least one does each year.

 

[switz]

Addai should be tier one... he's one of the safest bets for a top-5 finish.

Barber should be tier 2. He's never finished top-5 AFAIK and he's in the same situation he has been in, splitting time.

DWilliams is way too high, even if Stewart's toe doesn't heal.

I agree with Gore being in tier 2, but also would put LJ there, for similar reasons.

 

[Riffraff]

I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome.

Nice first effort. Keep it up and you'll improve yourself and others.

 

[Little Lord Humpleroy]

Your no draft tier is my supervalue tier. Thanks for putting out the effort. It's lists like this that make this a valuable forum. Even if I don't agree with your rankings there's tremendous value in knowing why people rank players the way they do. Good work.

 

[podunker]

These are fluid rankings that are being done fairly early. But if you put me on the spot as to which rooks I think have the best shot of breaking out I would say Kevin Smith, and Chris Johnson. Johnson especially in a PPR format. White can be the Duece McAlister , Johnson can be the Reggie Bush. But Johnson won't be "the guy". I think Smith can be "the guy". Thanks for the input, It made me think alot about tiers 4,5,6. I also think Parker may indeed need to be in teir 4.

 

[Sultans]

Addai should be tier one... he's one of the safest bets for a top-5 finish.Barber should be tier 2. He's never finished top-5 AFAIK and he's in the same situation he has been in, splitting time.DWilliams is way too high, even if Stewart's toe doesn't heal.I agree with Gore being in tier 2, but also would put LJ there, for similar reasons.

Addai is a top 5 pick for sure. I also think you have Lynch far too low.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Too low:

Addai

W.Parker

Too high:

M.BarberIII

LJ

T.Jones

 

[Kiddnets]

If Lynch falls in value because of this hit and run thing I will be all over him. Maybe he gets suspended one game - definitely worth the risk with what he showed last year IMO.

 

[fightingillini]

Addai should be tier one... he's one of the safest bets for a top-5 finish.Barber should be tier 2. He's never finished top-5 AFAIK and he's in the same situation he has been in, splitting time.DWilliams is way too high, even if Stewart's toe doesn't heal.I agree with Gore being in tier 2, but also would put LJ there, for similar reasons.

Absolutely agree with Switz here.

 

[ThePittbully]

no way is LJ a tier one RB in ppr, and not even in non ppr

 

[Real Man of Genius]

Addai should be tier one... he's one of the safest bets for a top-5 finish.Barber should be tier 2. He's never finished top-5 AFAIK and he's in the same situation he has been in, splitting time.DWilliams is way too high, even if Stewart's toe doesn't heal.I agree with Gore being in tier 2, but also would put LJ there, for similar reasons.

Absolutely agree with Switz here.

I agree with everything except the Barber comment. Barber is in a vastly different situation this year, IMO. I think he gets anywhere from 3-5 more carries per game this year. Julius Jones had 10 carries/game last year, I don't think Felix Jones takes them all. 50 additional carries for 225 yards and 3 TD would net him about 40 fantasy points. Which would have made him RB3 in PPR last year.

 

[switz]

Addai should be tier one... he's one of the safest bets for a top-5 finish.

Barber should be tier 2. He's never finished top-5 AFAIK and he's in the same situation he has been in, splitting time.

DWilliams is way too high, even if Stewart's toe doesn't heal.

I agree with Gore being in tier 2, but also would put LJ there, for similar reasons.

Absolutely agree with Switz here.

I agree with everything except the Barber comment. Barber is in a vastly different situation this year, IMO. I think he gets anywhere from 3-5 more carries per game this year. Julius Jones had 10 carries/game last year, I don't think Felix Jones takes them all. 50 additional carries for 225 yards and 3 TD would net him about 40 fantasy points. Which would have made him RB3 in PPR last year.

But not the previous two year. Last year was an anomaly, and we shouldn't gauge projections against it to rank players.

 

[ratbast]

I have one issue with the tiering strategy: I don't like using ADP when tiering, and I won't use it to adjust.I think one should set up the tiers based on expected production & risk. Where a player is likely to go is pretty meaningless to me when setting the tiers - if they are gone before I get to that tier, the ADP takes care of itself.When it comes down to whom to actually take - that's when ADP is useful.

I'm a big fan of tiering and ADP actually should have nothing to do with it, thats the whole point. Tiering rides with the current draft, ADP doesn't. Essentially when you tier the players in predraft preparations you are applying your projections which are often influenced by researched ADP so influences have already taken place. As the draft proceeds its always GREAT to have guy picked from the tier below your current tier.I like that Podunk tiered his rankings but the explanation for tier 5 doesn't work. If you would take Lynch or Grant over TJones then they belong atleast in the same tier. I can understand that you believe they are overhyped but that has nothing to do with the tier they belong in. Are you telling me you would draft TJones over Grant and Lynch if all 3 are available?Go ALL the way with the tiering.Good stuff though as you did throw it all out there and made an interesting read.

 

[UnknownCoach]

Thanks for putting this list out there. I disagree with a lot of it, but I like the effort.One thing that stands out is that you said you think we'll see the Maroney from the end of last year, yet he's in tier-6. If Maroney sustains that performance for a full year he'll be a top-5 RB.

Every year there's those couple players who end up on my team in virtually every league I play in. This year, its looking like Maroney will be on all my teams.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

LT and Westbrook should have their own tier imo. They each scored at least 90 more fantasy points than any other rb in PPR leagues last season.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

Great job Podunker.

My only quibble (although it is a big one) is your placement of Reggie Bush into the 3rd tier (I'm a die-hard Saints fan by the way). Reggie has only been averaging about 10 fantasy points per game (that is combining rushing and receiving). To me, he belongs around 20th-25th overall. The experiment to make Reggie the true #1 RB backfired horribly last year and I firmly believe that Pierre Thomas and Deuce (if healthy) will get more carries than Reggie this year. Work around camp is he'll be used more as a slot receiver and punt returner this year (where he belongs, IMO).

IMO, he belongs in the 7th or 8th tier, absolutely no higher.

Thanks for the break-down.

 

[purestrength]

Great job Podunker.My only quibble (although it is a big one) is your placement of Reggie Bush into the 3rd tier (I'm a die-hard Saints fan by the way). Reggie has only been averaging about 10 fantasy points per game (that is combining rushing and receiving). To me, he belongs around 20th-25th overall. The experiment to make Reggie the true #1 RB backfired horribly last year and I firmly believe that Pierre Thomas and Deuce (if healthy) will get more carries than Reggie this year. Work around camp is he'll be used more as a slot receiver and punt returner this year (where he belongs, IMO).IMO, he belongs in the 7th or 8th tier, absolutely no higher.Thanks for the break-down.

Cheatsheet, what tier would you put Bush in for a PPR draft?Thanks.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

Great job Podunker.My only quibble (although it is a big one) is your placement of Reggie Bush into the 3rd tier (I'm a die-hard Saints fan by the way). Reggie has only been averaging about 10 fantasy points per game (that is combining rushing and receiving). To me, he belongs around 20th-25th overall. The experiment to make Reggie the true #1 RB backfired horribly last year and I firmly believe that Pierre Thomas and Deuce (if healthy) will get more carries than Reggie this year. Work around camp is he'll be used more as a slot receiver and punt returner this year (where he belongs, IMO).IMO, he belongs in the 7th or 8th tier, absolutely no higher.Thanks for the break-down.

Cheatsheet, what tier would you put Bush in for a PPR draft?Thanks.

purestrength,By my calculations, Bush was 26th in fantasy points per game (10.8) if you use the standard scoring system. Reggie had 88 receptions in 2006 and 73 receptions in 2007. Since he will more involved in the passing game this year, let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say he beats his career best and puts up 90 receptions. If you add those 90 receptions (at 1 point each) to his fantasy point output from 2007, it would have added 90 points on top of his 130 point output from other statistical categories (not bad at all). That would have put Reggie at 220 fantasy points and an average of 18 points per week. In contrast, Tomlinson would have put up 22 fantasy points per game under PPR. So, I would say that Reggie moves from 26th overall to about 8-12th overall in PPR. If you think he could actually make some noise in the return game, it would justify something closer to 8th. I can't really say which tier that is because the cutoffs are a personal choice and it would depend on the players on either side of Reggie in your rankings.On my website I allow you to generate dynamic football cheat sheets, but the initial player rankings are based on total fantasy point output from the previous season (using the standard scoring sytem); I also include the FFP (fantasy points per game) stat. Unfortunately though, I don't yet provide the functionality to allow you to generate cheat sheets based on custom scoring rules (like PPR). I assumed that rankings using the standard scoring system would be sufficient (at least for this year) but I think I underestimated the number of fantasy players who use customized rules for their league. I also underestimated the affect that these small scoring changes can have on rankings, the effect is much greater than I initially thought. Reggie puts up a monumental number of receptions, so a league of that format would benefit him greatly.Hope this helps.

 

[bcr8f]

Addai should be tier one... he's one of the safest bets for a top-5 finish.

Barber should be tier 2. He's never finished top-5 AFAIK and he's in the same situation he has been in, splitting time.

DWilliams is way too high, even if Stewart's toe doesn't heal.

I agree with Gore being in tier 2, but also would put LJ there, for similar reasons.

Addai is a top 5 pick for sure. I also think you have Lynch far too low.

As well as Grant. Edge in a dynasty will be far lower.

 

[purestrength]

Great job Podunker.My only quibble (although it is a big one) is your placement of Reggie Bush into the 3rd tier (I'm a die-hard Saints fan by the way). Reggie has only been averaging about 10 fantasy points per game (that is combining rushing and receiving). To me, he belongs around 20th-25th overall. The experiment to make Reggie the true #1 RB backfired horribly last year and I firmly believe that Pierre Thomas and Deuce (if healthy) will get more carries than Reggie this year. Work around camp is he'll be used more as a slot receiver and punt returner this year (where he belongs, IMO).IMO, he belongs in the 7th or 8th tier, absolutely no higher.Thanks for the break-down.

Cheatsheet, what tier would you put Bush in for a PPR draft?Thanks.

purestrength,By my calculations, Bush was 26th in fantasy points per game (10.8) if you use the standard scoring system. Reggie had 88 receptions in 2006 and 73 receptions in 2007. Since he will more involved in the passing game this year, let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say he beats his career best and puts up 90 receptions. If you add those 90 receptions (at 1 point each) to his fantasy point output from 2007, it would have added 90 points on top of his 130 point output from other statistical categories (not bad at all). That would have put Reggie at 220 fantasy points and an average of 18 points per week. In contrast, Tomlinson would have put up 22 fantasy points per game under PPR. So, I would say that Reggie moves from 26th overall to about 8-12th overall in PPR. If you think he could actually make some noise in the return game, it would justify something closer to 8th. I can't really say which tier that is because the cutoffs are a personal choice and it would depend on the players on either side of Reggie in your rankings.On my website I allow you to generate dynamic football cheat sheets, but the initial player rankings are based on total fantasy point output from the previous season (using the standard scoring sytem); I also include the FFP (fantasy points per game) stat. Unfortunately though, I don't yet provide the functionality to allow you to generate cheat sheets based on custom scoring rules (like PPR). I assumed that rankings using the standard scoring system would be sufficient (at least for this year) but I think I underestimated the number of fantasy players who use customized rules for their league. I also underestimated the affect that these small scoring changes can have on rankings, the effect is much greater than I initially thought. Reggie puts up a monumental number of receptions, so a league of that format would benefit him greatly.Hope this helps.

It definitely does help. Thanks again.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Great approach. Tiers are a useful way of looking for value. My analysis shows that Brandon Jacobs and Edge James represent solid value right now.

 

[buck-nut]

Not a big fan of tiering, prefer flat-out projections. My biggest complaint w/ your rankings is w/ Grant and Lynch, I look for both to have big years.