Podunker's early WR rankings, tiering, with draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[podunker]

Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments

These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome.

Tier 1

R. Moss

R. Wayne

T. Owens

These are the top three guys and you’ll pay a premium to get them. Late first or early second round pick.

Tier 2

Fitz

S. Smith

Edwards

Andre Johnson

TJ Housh

C. Johnson

Colston

Holt

Marshall

Burress

Boldin

Any of these guys will be good WR1 for your team. This is a huge tier, but I just don’t see any big gaps with these guys. If you can get two of the above WR’s your doing great, but only Marshall and Boldin are the only ones lasting until early fourth round.

Tier 3

Welker

Roy Williams

Ward

Jennings

Harrison

Calvin Johnson

Driver

Curtis

Engram

Holmes

Cotchery

Another big tier. Several WR’s from the same team on this list. Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Detroit should have enough passing prowess to support these guys. Obviously, I think Harrison recovers and goes back to being close to his old self. Same as Ward. I see Detroit going a lot more two WR sets, which means more targets for the top two guys. All should be good WR2 for your team.

Tier 4

Burleson

Bruce

Bowe

Evans

Coles

Galloway

All these guys have lower floors than the ones above, but potentially higher ceilings in my mind. Burleson could sky rocket depending on Branch’s return and Engrams holdout. Bruce will be WR1 in a Martz offense. I’m not as high on Bowe as some, mainly because of QB play, but he has explosive potential. Same deal with Evans. Coles and Galloway are two steady vets that will be productive. Marginal WR2 with upside or good WR3.

Tier 5

Santana Moss

Chambers

Reggie Brown

Bryant Johnson

R. White

Berrian

Mason

A. Gonzalez

Curry

All these guys should be good WR3 for your team. Moss should still be the main target in Washington, even though they got the new guys. He may surprise in a west coast offense. I think R. Brown keeps progressing. Johnson is here because of the amount of passes they’ll be throwing in Martz offense. Berrian, White, and Curry all have QB issues, but could shine. A Gonzalez is the one I’m watching. If Harrison doesn’t return he would get moved up a couple tiers.

Tier 6

Ginn

Hackett

D. Thomas

Rice

Mark Clayton

Crayton

All fairly young guys that I think can produce decent numbers if given the opportunity.

Tier 7

D. Jackson

Branch

Booker

Muhammed

Stalworth

Wilford

Glenn

Walker

All older guys that have the potential to still get the job done. Muhammed did it before in Carolina, and so did Booker in Chicago. Glenn and Branch could help you late in the year. Still don’t know who will be No. 1 in Miami, Wilford has a shot. Same deal for Walker.

There is 54 WR’s on this list. Bruce and Burleson are the two biggest values this year in my mind.

 

[vincentvega722]

Very good analysis. I like it how you broke it down to tiers, very helpful. I'm doing a PPR league for the first time this year so this is helpful.

 

[FUBAR]

Is that Javon Walker in tier 7?

Even with the issues, I don't see him lasting past Mason's group, if that far.

 

[Lash]

with a hurting Gates, VJax put up over 300 yards and 3 TDs in three games

he has to be somewhere above some of those in tier 6 and 7 doesn't he?

 

[podunker]

with a hurting Gates, VJax put up over 300 yards and 3 TDs in three gameshe has to be somewhere above some of those in tier 6 and 7 doesn't he?

If Gates is hurt every game, then yes he would be somewhere above the tier 6 guys. But as of now he is the fourth pass catching option in a balanced offense. He is behind Gates, LT, and Chambers.

 

[BassNBrew]

Tier 3Welker

You said ppr...bump him up accordingly.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Some of those tiers are just too big. You mean to tell me that there's not much difference between Larry Fitzgerald and Plaxico Burress? Or between Wes Welker and Kevin Curtis? In a PPR league no less. Come on.

 

[KCC]

Tier 3Welker

You said ppr...bump him up accordingly.

That was my first reaction when looking at the list as well.

 

[KCC]

Tier 5

Santana Moss

Chambers

Reggie Brown

Bryant Johnson

I would have Bryant a couple tiers higher.

 

[Jack Burton]

Fitz and Edwards should be in tier 1.

 

[Tanner9919]

Andre Johnson in Tier 2?! Thats a joke.. the dude is always hurt, and when he does play, he rarely scores..compare his stats to those of Derrick Mason over the past 4 seasons, they're remarkably close..lots of receptions, few TDs. I'll take Mason, 15 rounds later than AJ, and get the exact same production, and, Mason is MUCH MORE consistent than AJ.

 

[Bri]

I don't think the Panthers will have 3 in the top 50

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Fitz and Edwards should be in tier 1.

I don't really have a problem with only 3 guys in the first tier. Look at their quarterbacks.Randy Moss - Tom Brady Reggie Wayne - Peyton Manning Terrell Owens - Tony Romo Compared to the other guys qbs:Larry Fitzgerald - Matt Leinart / Kurt Warner Braylon Edwards - Derek Anderson /Brady Quinn The track record of the first three receivers quarterbacks are what put them at the top tier .

 

[Hue G]

Andre Johnson in Tier 2?! Thats a joke.. the dude is always hurt, and when he does play, he rarely scores..compare his stats to those of Derrick Mason over the past 4 seasons, they're remarkably close..lots of receptions, few TDs. I'll take Mason, 15 rounds later than AJ, and get the exact same production, and, Mason is MUCH MORE consistent than AJ.

This makes no sense Before the 07' season A Johnson missed 3 games in 4 seasons

Last season he scored 7 TDs in 9 games

nuff said

 

[FUBAR]

Andre Johnson in Tier 2?! Thats a joke.. the dude is always hurt, and when he does play, he rarely scores..compare his stats to those of Derrick Mason over the past 4 seasons, they're remarkably close..lots of receptions, few TDs. I'll take Mason, 15 rounds later than AJ, and get the exact same production, and, Mason is MUCH MORE consistent than AJ.

um, what?I assume you're fishing here, but if not - go ahead and take the guy who needs 16 games to put up what AJ does in 9.

AJ's injuries are what keeps him in tier 2 instead of 1.

 

[FUBAR]

Fitz and Edwards should be in tier 1.

I don't really have a problem with only 3 guys in the first tier. Look at their quarterbacks.Randy Moss - Tom Brady Reggie Wayne - Peyton Manning Terrell Owens - Tony Romo Compared to the other guys qbs:Larry Fitzgerald - Matt Leinart / Kurt Warner Braylon Edwards - Derek Anderson /Brady Quinn The track record of the first three receivers quarterbacks are what put them at the top tier .

Agreed, but Edwards and Fitz's production with lesser QBs might make them better plays in dynasty leagues (aside from age)

 

[Kuz]

Andre Johnson in Tier 2?! Thats a joke.. the dude is always hurt, and when he does play, he rarely scores..compare his stats to those of Derrick Mason over the past 4 seasons, they're remarkably close..lots of receptions, few TDs. I'll take Mason, 15 rounds later than AJ, and get the exact same production, and, Mason is MUCH MORE consistent than AJ.

you can't be serious about this one.. I will admit that AJ scored on a much frequent basis last year then the previous few years but he does have a much better QB to throw him the ball. I'm a bit worried about his knee but to compare him to Derrick Mason is stretching to say the least..

 

[Kuz]

Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome. Tier 1 R. MossR. WayneT. OwensThese are the top three guys and you’ll pay a premium to get them. Late first or early second round pick.Tier 2FitzS. SmithEdwardsAndre JohnsonTJ HoushC. JohnsonColstonHoltMarshallBurressBoldinAny of these guys will be good WR1 for your team. This is a huge tier, but I just don’t see any big gaps with these guys. If you can get two of the above WR’s your doing great, but only Marshall and Boldin are the only ones lasting until early fourth round. Tier 3WelkerRoy WilliamsWardJenningsHarrisonCalvin JohnsonDriverCurtisEngramHolmesCotcheryAnother big tier. Several WR’s from the same team on this list. Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Detroit should have enough passing prowess to support these guys. Obviously, I think Harrison recovers and goes back to being close to his old self. Same as Ward. I see Detroit going a lot more two WR sets, which means more targets for the top two guys. All should be good WR2 for your team. Tier 4BurlesonBruceBoweEvansColesGallowayAll these guys have lower floors than the ones above, but potentially higher ceilings in my mind. Burleson could sky rocket depending on Branch’s return and Engrams holdout. Bruce will be WR1 in a Martz offense. I’m not as high on Bowe as some, mainly because of QB play, but he has explosive potential. Same deal with Evans. Coles and Galloway are two steady vets that will be productive. Marginal WR2 with upside or good WR3.Tier 5Santana MossChambersReggie BrownBryant JohnsonR. WhiteBerrianMasonA. GonzalezCurryAll these guys should be good WR3 for your team. Moss should still be the main target in Washington, even though they got the new guys. He may surprise in a west coast offense. I think R. Brown keeps progressing. Johnson is here because of the amount of passes they’ll be throwing in Martz offense. Berrian, White, and Curry all have QB issues, but could shine. A Gonzalez is the one I’m watching. If Harrison doesn’t return he would get moved up a couple tiers. Tier 6GinnHackettD. ThomasRiceMark ClaytonCraytonAll fairly young guys that I think can produce decent numbers if given the opportunity. Tier 7D. JacksonBranchBookerMuhammedStalworthWilfordGlennWalkerAll older guys that have the potential to still get the job done. Muhammed did it before in Carolina, and so did Booker in Chicago. Glenn and Branch could help you late in the year. Still don’t know who will be No. 1 in Miami, Wilford has a shot. Same deal for Walker. There is 54 WR’s on this list. Bruce and Burleson are the two biggest values this year in my mind.

Nice work.. I don't play in PPR but this list looks pretty decent for other leagues as well..

 

[FantasyTrader]

Great writeup - thank you very much. I think we'll look back on the year and find that almost all of us missed pretty badly on some portion of the Jacksonville passing game. If one argues that Garrard is a borderline #1 this year (I'm a believer - but even that's debateable) then I don't see how a Jags WR doesn't find his way into the top 30-35 at least.

 

[Kiddnets]

Suprised at all the love Calvin Johnson is getting so far - had a lousy rookie year, was hurt, lost Martz, no running game and still has Kitna - maybe a few of those turn into a positive.

I actually have him in a keeper league and was gong to throw him back but after looking at who would be available as possible #2 WRs in the pool I decided to keep him - at least the kid has upside.

Are people banking on him becoming the #1 over Roy Williams?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

for some reason I have always liked Bryant Johnson and I will be targeting him in most drafts this year...hope not too much hype before season.....

 

[fightingillini]

Excellent post.

For the most part, I agree with your tiers, with the following exceptions:

1) I would move Welker up to Tier 2.....should be a lock to catch 90+ passes again.

2) I would move Evans and Coles up to Tier 3

3) I would move Harrison down to Tier 4, and move A Gonzalez up to tier 4.

4) I would move Calvin Johnson down to Tier 4.

5) I would move Roddy White up to Tier 4.

 

[fightingillini]

Great writeup - thank you very much. I think we'll look back on the year and find that almost all of us missed pretty badly on some portion of the Jacksonville passing game. If one argues that Garrard is a borderline #1 this year (I'm a believer - but even that's debateable) then I don't see how a Jags WR doesn't find his way into the top 30-35 at least.

I agree, FT, but the problem is......which Jags WR will it be? That will be the magic question all season long.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Great writeup - thank you very much. I think we'll look back on the year and find that almost all of us missed pretty badly on some portion of the Jacksonville passing game. If one argues that Garrard is a borderline #1 this year (I'm a believer - but even that's debateable) then I don't see how a Jags WR doesn't find his way into the top 30-35 at least.

I agree, FT, but the problem is......which Jags WR will it be? That will be the magic question all season long.

I know. I'm guilty myself of thinking "Well, it's Russian Roulette anyway. Why bother with any of them?" Just a hunch that SOME Jags WR is going to leave us wondering - how did we not see that coming?

 

[Hue G]

Great writeup - thank you very much. I think we'll look back on the year and find that almost all of us missed pretty badly on some portion of the Jacksonville passing game. If one argues that Garrard is a borderline #1 this year (I'm a believer - but even that's debateable) then I don't see how a Jags WR doesn't find his way into the top 30-35 at least.

I agree, FT, but the problem is......which Jags WR will it be? That will be the magic question all season long.

The present ADP for Williams and Porter is very low you could prolly get both at a very good value, I believe one will end up in the top 20-25 and if that happens it would be well worth the 2 late draft picks.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Kevin Curtis, tier 3 ?

Vincent Jackson not ranked ?

no thanks.

Thanks for the effort, Po.

 

[LBH]

Nice effort.

why so down on Roddy White?

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Kevin Curtis, tier 3 ?

Vincent Jackson not ranked ?

no thanks.

Thanks for the effort, Po.

 

[lynx4ben]

Not bad. Your high on Curtis which is fine. I couldn't stand him last year. A few big games but wasn't that great otherwise. I like Evans in tier three. Heck swapping evans and curitis would be one of few mods I would make.

 

[podunker]

Nice effort.why so down on Roddy White?

A few reasons. Who will be throwing him the ball. If it's Ryan, he may get off to a slow start. If it's not him, I don't like any of the other guys. There new coach comes from a team that used a power running game, and threw the ball as a last resort to the WR's. I'm waiting to see how it all plays out in the preseason before I make a final decision on him. But if the Coach runs his team like Jacksonville, then I'd be suprised if any WR was going to be too valueable.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Not bad. Your high on Curtis which is fine. I couldn't stand him last year. A few big games but wasn't that great otherwise. I like Evans in tier three. Heck swapping evans and curitis would be one of few mods I would make.

Kevin Curtis' fantasy numbers from last season, standard scoring.3 45 2 B 18 6 8 5 2 7 7 17 3 4 20 12.

 

[podunker]

QUOTE (BassNBrew @ Jun 17 2008, 08:37 PM) QUOTE Tier 3WelkerYou said ppr...bump him up accordingly. That was my first reaction when looking at the list as well.

I'm high on Welker also. However, the guys in my tier 2 are all guys I would feel safe with as my WR1. I wouldn't feel safe with Welker as my WR1 even in a PPR league. I no he was a stud last year. Give me another year, and I might be sold on him.As far as Curtis goes, he has another year in an offense that throws the ball a lot. He'll still be inconsistent, but very few WR's aren't.

 

[Jack Burton]

Fitz and Edwards should be in tier 1.

I don't really have a problem with only 3 guys in the first tier. Look at their quarterbacks.Randy Moss - Tom Brady Reggie Wayne - Peyton Manning Terrell Owens - Tony Romo Compared to the other guys qbs:Larry Fitzgerald - Matt Leinart / Kurt Warner Braylon Edwards - Derek Anderson /Brady Quinn The track record of the first three receivers quarterbacks are what put them at the top tier .

Agreed, but Edwards and Fitz's production with lesser QBs might make them better plays in dynasty leagues (aside from age)

Fitz may not have Manning throwing to him, but his numbers are almost identical to Wayne's. Fitz Had 100rec and 1400yds , Wayne had 104 rec and 1500yds but played one more game. Both had 10 tds. They're the same player if you ask me. Edwards still needs to prove he can repeat his production year in and year out before he moves into the top tier, but I think time will prove he can.

 

[LBH]

Nice effort.why so down on Roddy White?

A few reasons. Who will be throwing him the ball. If it's Ryan, he may get off to a slow start. If it's not him, I don't like any of the other guys. There new coach comes from a team that used a power running game, and threw the ball as a last resort to the WR's. I'm waiting to see how it all plays out in the preseason before I make a final decision on him. But if the Coach runs his team like Jacksonville, then I'd be suprised if any WR was going to be too valueable.

The other guys you dont like led to a 83 1202 6 season a year ago. The conservative run oriented offense that Mularkey runs led to some great fantasy seasons for H.Ward. Miami didnt have any WR established as a clear #1 and Mularkey was only TE coach there. I can understand some hesitation in having him ranked high, but Tier 5 seems too low to me. M.Smith was Defensive C in Jax so I dont know how much input he will have in the offensive playcalling

 

[kremenull]

Tier 1

Randy Moss

Tier 2

R.Wayne

Fitz

T.O.

Chad

Colston

Andre

Braylon

Holt

Smitty

B.Marshall

T.J.

Boldin

Tier 3

A whole lot of players

Tier 4

Pick out of hat

 

[Lauryn]

Andre Johnson in Tier 2?! :( Thats a joke.. the dude is always hurt, and when he does play, he rarely scores..compare his stats to those of Derrick Mason over the past 4 seasons, they're remarkably close..lots of receptions, few TDs. I'll take Mason, 15 rounds later than AJ, and get the exact same production, and, Mason is MUCH MORE consistent than AJ.

this is a very poorly thought-out, baseless assessment.next time instead of editing, just delete instead.

comparing mason to johnson...lol

p.s. porter should be somewhere around the 4th tier. don't be scared off by the phantom injuries so far, he just isn't an OTA type of guy and has no problem yelling "OW MY HAMMY" and sitting his lazy ### on the sideline (and no i don't have a link).