Jun 17 2008, 08:44 AM Post #1 FootballguyGroup: MembersJoined: 24-June 04Member No.: 10989 Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome. Tier 1LTWestyAdrian PetersonLarry JohnsonBarber IIIS. JacksonThese are the big dogs and if you have a top 6 pick you better take one of these guys. LJ demise has been greatly exaggerated in my book. He will be a stud, and could fall out of the first round. Westy is still the most underrated in PPR leagues. I’ll take any of them and be happy, but those two are the ones that could fall past the first six picks. I got LJ at 3.06 in one dynasty league draft. UNFREAKENBELIEVABLE!Tier 2PortisAddaiGoreThese guys are all studs also, and should be taken in the first round. Portis has been falling in some drafts to the 2nd round. These nine RB’s should be the first players taken in all redraft leagues. If you can get two of them, Merry Christmas to you! I’ve gotten LJ and Portis a couple times picking late in the first round. Tier 3BushLewisMcGaheeThese guys will perform nicely, and will make a great bookend RB. I would probably take a one of my tier 1 WR’s over them if they were still available though. I would consider Brady over them also. Bush and Lewis are both going in the 3rd rounds. If I get a top three slot in the draft it would be nice to pick them in the beginning of the third, although honestly I think Jamal is the only guy that will be there in the 3rd. Tier 4EdgeMJDT. JonesJacobsRight now MJD is questionable to me because he is going too early. I would probably take a tier 2 WR over him. Edge and Jacobs are going 3rd or 4th round and will make good RB2’s. I love T. Jones this year, and will be jumping on him in round 4 or later. Right now his adp is late round 5, a steal at that point. If you think he will last to round 5, pick a nice tier 2 WR, tier 2 QB, or Witten in round 4. Tier 5LynchGrantGrahamTurnerWhiteThis is my no draft tier. It would take them falling a long way to draft one of these guys. My reasonings are different for each, and I’m sure my personal feelings about some play into my rankings. Let someone else draft these guys. Lynch has big trouble in my book off the field, and that may effect his play. Grant hasn’t proved himself enough for me. Same for Graham and Turner. White may represent some value, but I’m staying away. I’d much rather have T. Jones over anyone on this list, with the exception of Lynch. But Lynch’s adp makes him undraftable to me. I wouldn’t take him in the late second round. Hence, that’s’ the main reason he is in this tier. Realisticly he should be between MJD and T. Jones. Probably the rounds these guys are taken I will be taking a QB.Tier 6ParkerBrownJ. JonesMaroneyDe. Williams. Parker could be the steal in this tier, and I almost put him in tier 4. I am one of those guys that don’t buy the rookie RB hype, unless the guy was a legit top talent, even then I’m skeptical. I would love to have Parker as my RB2 or RB3. He was being taken in the top 10 just a year ago. Brown’s ranking is based on the fact that I don’t know if he will be healthy enough to start the season on time. Both these players could move up in the following weeks. J. Jones will be the main back in Seattle, and will be a nice pickup as a weak RB2 if you went QB early. I think we’ll see the Maroney we saw at the end of the season last year. DeAngelo Williams is one of my sleeper picks. Fox has proven in the past that he likes the vets over the young guys. Williams can be explosive when given the chance. I think he gets the lions share of the carries in Carolina. Tier 7Rudi JohnsonMcFaddenAhman GreenRudi is another one of those guys who was being taken high just a year ago. If he returns close to form, he could be a bargain. McFadden is a big question mark, and I won’t be taking him at his current adp. But someone will be carrying the ball in Oakland, he is the most likely candidate after that payday. It is yet to see if he can catch the ball out of the backfield. If he can I’d feel more secure with this ranking. Green is a steal this year in round 9. He will be the man if healthy in Houston. They paid him a lot to do that job. He could easily finish top 20 this year. I will be targeting him late in drafts.Tier 8Fred TaylorChester TaylorDueceThe first two guys come from heavy running teams, but will be sharing carries. I still consider Fred a RB 1a on his team. Because he is the starter. Chester is definitely no. 2 on his team, but they run the ball a ton, and Peterson’s running style is hellacious. Duece is solid if he is healthy. I really think he is the key to the whole NO offense being successful. He makes Bush and Brees both better. I would take Green in the 9th over any of these guys in the 7th or 8th right now though. Tier 9Selvin YoungNorwoodRicky WilliamsChris JohnsonFelix JonesKevin SmithStewartForteThese are the boom or bust guys in my book. Young could be a gem if he is really the guy in Denver. That’s a big if. Norwood can be explosive. His coach comes from Jacksonville were they ran the two RB package well. If they use Norwood like MJD, he will shine. Ricky will get the carries early in the season, and can productive. Who knows when Brown will be back for sure. I like Johnson the best of the rooks in PPR leagues. Once again he can be used like MJD or Bush and be productive. Jones value is based on his homerun potential in that offense. Smith, Stewart, and Forte are all guys that I have no idea about. They come into situations with no proven RB ahead of them, so they have the opportunity to produce. I’m just not sold on rooks.Tier 10CadillacK. JonesT. BellThese are guys to pick up late and hope they help you at the end of the season. K. Jones has the talent and I think he will end up on some roster. He could start in Chicago right now. He is the most talented of this group. Caddy may still get back for the season, and Gruden likes him. He has talent still. T. Bell may well be the starter in Detroit. They re-signed him for some reason. I think he got in Martz’s doghouse last year, and couldn’t get out. Marinelli likes him for some reason.
Old Version Above, done in mid June. Below is the new version. Podunkers’ updated redraft rankings, tiering, with commentsThese are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. My original rankings were done in mid-June. Constructive criticism is welcome. Tier 1LTWestyAdrian Peterson(Slight Change) I ended up putting these three in their own tier. After them it is possible to consider drafting Brady or even Moss. But these three should be the first three picks of any draft, unless QB is used as a flex or something weird like that. Tier 2LJBarber IIISjaxAddaiGorePortis(Slight Change) Just combined my remaining old tier 1 guys with my original tier 2 guys. All these guys will be drafted in the first round, with only LJ and Portis having a sniff to make it to the beginning of he second round. LJ has an ADP of around 16 overall. Sjax situation is starting to bother me a little, but you have to take him in round one if available. Tier 3Bush (was being taken in round 3, but now round 2.)Lynch (Moved up, seems to have gotten past trouble, but being taken in rd. 1)LewisMJD McFadden – (biggest jump up, I am really impressed with him, could be a steal in round 3)(Changes) Lynch has gotten past his off the field issue, but he is being taken in the first round in most drafts, that’s just too high for me. Bush and MJD are being taken in round two, about right probably. Lewis is going in round 3. McFadden made a big jump. He is currently going in round 3. I have been impressed with how tuff he runs up the middle, didn’t know he could do that. He looks very speedy also, and that’s with keeping two hands on the ball most of the runs. He should catch a lot of passes. Moss or Brady would probably be the only two guys I would take over any of these RB’s. It is possible to get two out of this tier, that’s why I’m not against taking Brady in earlier and trying to get two of these in round two and three. Say Brady, MJD, Mcfadden.Tier 4 McGahee (Took a drop because of knee surgery)Jacobs (I think he will break out this year, huge upside)Parker (Made a big jump, his demise is overly hyped)Tjones (I think Favre just helps him)Turner (Moved up, like his situation as RB1 on his team)Young (Moved up, clear cut RB1 in Denver)Edge (Skeptical, he just looks old, but that’s his running style)(Changes) Most these guys can be had in round 4 or 5, with McGahee and Young being the exceptions. That knee injury scares me with McGahee. I definitely won’t be taking him in the second round like his ADP suggest. I love Jacobs, and think he would be a fantastic RB2, and unbelievable RB3. His ADP is moving up, and you may have to grab him in round 3. He, Parker, and Young are the biggest steals. The addition of Favre only helps Jones in my opinion. Young was helped by the loss of Torain, Henry, but you never know what Shanahan will do. Regardless, he is a steal being at his ADP in the 6th round. I’m sure that ADP will move up quickly. Edge has that lazy, skater, type running style that makes him look like he is not hitting the hole hard. It’s starting to remind of the way Alexander started running when he declined. The difference is Edge has always ran like that. It was glaring, though, when the rook got the ball for Ariz.Tier 5Graham (Contract situation done, but Dunn will get some carries)Grant (Contract situation done, will Jackson steal some time?)White (Looks like a stud, with great line blocking)Dwilliams (Moved up, I was high on him before, still am)Cjohnson (Moved up, I admit it, his game breaking ability has me in a stupper.)I see a lot of teams going the two RB system, copying the Jaqs/Saints style. Tenn. and Carolina are going to run the ball a ton. Plus, Dwill, and Cjohnson will catch a lot of passes. Grant is being taken way too high in drafts for my taste with an ADP of round 2. I’m not sold on Graham, but if you could get him in the 4th or later he would be fine. White was close to being moved up a tier. He is going to be a bull in that offense. If the game is close, look for him to get 20 plus carries a easily. He will get all the goal line work also. DeAngelo Williams looks like a guy who wants to be the starter to me. He if not as big as Stewart, but is much more shiftier. He is still being way undervalued, in most drafts not being taken until the 8th round. Chris Johnson is a game breaker. He doesn’t need lots of carries to be a good fantasy player. He will be in the game if the Titans get behind, and on passing situations. They may even line him up out wide at WR. Tier 6Ricky Williams (Up, he is in a full blown battle with Brown, but he is healthy)Maroney (In my mind, he is the hardest guy to rank of them all.)Fred Taylor Ronnie Brown (Coming off a knee injury, I’m just not sold)Chester Taylor Rudi Johnson A. Green Although, several guys in this group show being moved up, Williams is really the only one significantly. I just combined some tiers, so it looks like some others moved up. I think Williams carries the load in Miami early on, until they see if Brown can handle the pounding on his knee, then full blown RBBC. The amazing thing is Brown is being taken in the 3rd round, while Ricky is lasting until round 10. Give me Ricky in 10 any day. Maroney is the hardest guy to rank in my book. He has the potential to be top 10-15. But, the Pats never seemed to rely on him last year. Plus, they keep bringing in guys to go with him like Jordan. They are going to pass the ball a lot, and he doesn’t catch much passes, Faulk gets that work. I’m just not willing to spend a 3rd round pick on him. Freddie and Chester will be solid and are being taken in the 7-8 round range. You definitely have to get Chester if you take Peterson, but I don’t think the same thing applies to Freddie and MJD. Green has looked the best in training camp, but can he stay healthy. Rudi is another big question mark. I, at first, thought he would be a steal in the 5th, but his injury and the great play of his two backups (Watson, Perry) have me a little skeptical. Perry has really impressed me. Tier 7Stewart (Close to be moved down)Felix Jones (The 3rd best rookie, behind McFadden, Johnson)J. Jones K. SmithThe rookie RB’s are starting to sort themselves out. Stewart hasn’t showed much, but does have talent. Felix Jones has been the most impressive of this bunch by far. J. Jones might not even be the starter in Seattle, don’t sleep on Mo. Morris. The Lions offensive line looks terrible, but K. Smith does look better than Bell. I would rather have Felix in round 8, than any of these guys earlier. The fact that Stew is being taken 3 rounds ahead of DeAngelo is ridiculous. Tier 8ForteMaurice MorrisMendenhallDeuce McAllisterForte may well be the starter in Chicago, but it is a very crowded backfield. Plus, there line sucks. Morris is the guy that is being way undervalued in this group. Holmgren has already said he and JJ would be sharing carries, and that he may just go with the hot hand. In the 12th round, you can still get a possible starting RB, he is a gift from God. Deuce is still a question mark, but if you can get him late enough, he may be worth the gamble. Tier 9Watson (Watch him and Perry close)Fargas (Could share time with McFadden early)Tbell (I guess he still has a chance to be the starter)Kjones (Still think he is while away, but may help second half of season)P. Thomas (If Deuce can’t come back)B. Jackson (Grant is hurt right now, and he looked good running, still suspect at blocking)Tier 10NorwoodDunnWashington BookerHightowerRiceRhodesBettsFosterF. JacksonPerryThis group is full of guys that are backups, but could perform if called upon due to injury. If nobody gets hurt ahead of them, Dunn has the best chance to perform decent. I loved the way Hightower ran the ball.
