Gruden's Keyboard
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Poll: Should Caleb go #1 overall? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Gruden's Keyboard
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Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
^I feel like you could swap market with media.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
^ I don't care about perceived odds of what other people will do. What's your take? What's your gut read on Caleb?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The media is just repeating what they hear from league/team sources. The media hasn’t talked Caleb Williams into the 1st pick.
Wouldn't even hesitate. I think he's the clear #1 QB in the class, I don't even see a good argument for anyone else.
I think any off-field drama or whatever is massively overblown. Don't see anything that even resembles a red flag. I see an outstanding leader who is NFL ready week 1.
The only hole in his game I see, is occasionally being prone to hero ball, but that's very likely a function of not having much talent around him at USC.
I think any off-field drama or whatever is massively overblown. Don't see anything that even resembles a red flag. I see an outstanding leader who is NFL ready week 1.
The only hole in his game I see, is occasionally being prone to hero ball, but that's very likely a function of not having much talent around him at USC.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
@Alex P Keaton yeah I know what you mean...but have you ever heard the term smoke screen season?
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
For the guys so sure Caleb is #1...
Who do you guys believe is #2?
Who do you guys believe is #2?
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Penix, but that's not where he'll go
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Caleb goes #1. The Bears would have retained Fields is they thought Caleb wasn't the clear decision at #1.
I expect Maye to go #2 despite all the prospect fatigue happening right now around him. I also expect him to be a massive, massive bust.
I expect Maye to go #2 despite all the prospect fatigue happening right now around him. I also expect him to be a massive, massive bust.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Sure. How do you see that applying?
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Nobody. That's why he's so solidly #1 in my personal record book.
I think it'll be Maye, but I also think Washington already screwed up by trading Howell. They should have stuck with Howell and taken Harrison in my opinion. Oh well, it'll probably be better for Harrison's career to go to Arizona or LA and get Kyler or Herbert throwing to him. QB desperation is a hell of a thing. Personally, I think other than Caleb, this class is mostly overrated. I think a few teams are gonna wish they'd gone the Fields/Howell route instead of burning a top pick on a non-elite prospect.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The bigger question would be what is the probability that all 3 top QBs bust? I peg it between 40 and 60%.
One could also make the case that Maye has the lowest bust chance of the three.
Unfortunately, you're almost bound to pick here based on ceiling...which goes against the golden rule about not losing the draft in the first round. Give me mid to late first round every year please.
One could also make the case that Maye has the lowest bust chance of the three.
Unfortunately, you're almost bound to pick here based on ceiling...which goes against the golden rule about not losing the draft in the first round. Give me mid to late first round every year please.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I’ve seen plenty of folks who think Maye is the most likely to bust. I don’t consider any of them generational talents. I would be surprised if more than one of them will turn into a legit top tier starter.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
Well I agree that Caleb is getting drafted #1 overall...I was just throwing out a thought nugget
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
Well Warshington hasn't exactly been conducive to QB success for sometime now. I hope Maye doesn't go to the Commies because I'm a fan.
DRAKE MAYE: Sundae Conversation with Caleb Pressley
Caleb finds out what it takes to be a student athlete.This episode is presented by Mamitas.Get your Sundae merch - http://www.barstool.link/sundaeProduced by...
youtu.be
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
Some people think if you don't have a top 8 QB, then you don't actually have a QB. That might not be a bad outlook...I just wonder where a guy like Jared Goff fits into the equation.
jabarony
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
The Trevor Lawrence hype we saw a few years ago makes me wonder if Caleb is also being overhyped. That said, at least Caleb is being set up for success a lot more than Trevor was, with a solid coaching staff around him and some very good weapons.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
I'm not going to beat around the bush, I am one of the people that voted No. If I'm Chicago, I look to see what I can get to trade down, or I consider drafting Maye straight up.
Boston
Footballguy
Caleb is the real deal physically...I think that is very apparent and it is why he will go #1 and should go #1...if there is a potential issue with him it will be mentally...there is so much more to this position than just the physical...the QB has to be a legit leader with his teammates, has to be willing to devote hours upon hours to the playbook/film/improving his craft, has to be the face of the franchise to both the fans and the media and has to do all of this while not being coddled in the cocoon they were most likely in playing college ball while also now probably losing more games than they have at any point in their career be it Pop Warner, High School or college (i.e. a lot of adversity)...how he handles that side of the game (as well as how solid the franchise is) will ultimately decide whether he is elite or if he will just be a stat guy who can make wow plays but not be a legit difference-maker...there are a few warning signs (sorry but there is) with Caleb but no prospect is perfect and if you are the Bears this is a very easy pick to make.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Very true. Just by avoiding a season with Urban Meyer, he’s two steps ahead of Lawrence.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There are a lot of bad cliches in football but this one may be my least favorite.
I'd rather have a 10% chance of getting a Burrow/Allen type player than a 100% chance of getting a Derek Carr level player.
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I've always hated that logic. Now don't get me wrong, having a top QB is a huge deal, but its entirely possible to win without one, and just having one isn't a fix-all for a team. Neither SF nor Detroit have top QBs, Eagles are probably borderline, as were the Rams. I think if you have a great roster, you just need a competent QB, if you have a mediocre roster, you need an elite QB. If you have both, and perhaps even more importantly the right HC, then you are a dynasty.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
Later 1st round picks don't have great success rates iirc. And then you have your occasional late round gems like Brock Purdy. There's also some guy named Tom Brady.
^This is all part of my reasoning for not wanting to blindly buy into official narratives.
^This is all part of my reasoning for not wanting to blindly buy into official narratives.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's hard to have a great roster for very long, but if you hit on a great QB you can have them for a decade or longer.
Purdy is a top QB imo, and teams like Detroit come and go. People always seem to forget that. Pretty fair chance the Lions go something like 8-9 next year or the year after and fade back to the middle as those teams constantly do in the NFL (but everyone forgets about, and constantly rates teams based on last year's playoff runs). But almost no chance the Bills or Chiefs do that.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
Not when they have leadership like this:
Behind the Scenes: Sam Laporta's NFL Combine Interview
Watch an excerpt from TE Sam Laporta's interview with the Detroit Lions at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. Subscribe to the Lions YT Channel: https://bit.ly/...
youtu.be
I agree, but I think having that super long window is such a rarity, that it sometimes feels silly to chase it, and makes more sense to just hope you happen into it. For every Mahomes/Allen, there's 15 Zach Wilsons. Chasing Allen especially is a horrible idea, because he's pretty much the Halley's comet of QBs as guys with that many accuracy issues, almost never fix it to that level.
I look at teams right now like the Patriots and Giants, and think they are both making a mistake if they take 1st round QBs. I'd just roll with Brissett and D.Jones/Lock if I were them. All drafting a QB does is put them in the same terrible situation Mac/Daniel Jones had where you are asked to carry an offense mostly full of weapons who would be backups on a good team. Worry about QB when you aren't just offering them up as sacrificial lambs to opposing defenses.
On the flip side, teams like the Bears and Vikings offer ideal starting points for a rookie QB.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It doesn't even have to be a 10-15 year window with the QB to make it worthwhile, because the reality is with the "build a roster" approach the window is most often just 1 year. People are vastly underrating the likelihood that the Lions aren't even a good team next year and don't make the playoffs, just like they did with the 2021 Titans (#1 seed) and the 2020 Browns. We see these teams every year where everything just clicks and everyone thinks they're the next consistent competitor, and then they fizzle out immediately.
If you want a high likelihood to make a lot of money, hammer the under on the Lions win total next year. That's the exact same advice I offered (and followed) here on this forum with those two teams mentioned above, and it was stress free money.
Again, we're not talking a 3 year window vs a 10 year window here. We're talking a 1-year window most typically, maybe 2, because it's just really difficult to hold together a great overall roster and keep everyone healthy.
Look at the 2021 AFC playoff teams: Titans (#1 seed), Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Raiders, Patriots, Steelers.
4 of those teams suck now (yes I realize the Steelers found a way into the playoffs this year, but let's be real, they suck), and pretty much started sucking the very next year. 3 of those teams are still good and considered Super Bowl contenders at the start of every year. The common denominator is obvious. The teams that are still good are the teams that have good QBs. The teams that were a flash in the pan are the teams that had mediocre QBs but were able to put together a roster around them good enough to create a good team. But that roster around them is just impossible to hold together and keep healthy and keep playing at a high level. The 9ers are pretty much the only exception. Every other team that is consistently good has a consistently top QB.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
I'm with you to an extent, but I think its grossly underestimating how rare those elite guys are. I'd also argue that the Steelers and ESPECIALLY the Bengals don't suck. The Bengals are arguably the 2nd best team in the AFC, they just had bad injury luck. I think they are a solid bet to be in the final 4 next year.
Who are the elite QBs right now? Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, and Lamar? Maybe Stroud will be? Is Herbert? I'd argue yes, but the Chargers have been below .500 in his career. Prescott? In the regular season only. I don't think we can really call Hurts elite.
Of the 32 teams, that's 4 elite guys, and some maybes. I think for many teams, chasing the 1-2 year window makes more sense, than trying to find a Franchise QB. It worked for the Rams, it arguably worked for Tampa , Brady was elite, but short-term window.
I mean, ideally you have all of them.
I do think OL/weapons is sort of an either or. I think if one is great the other can be just ok. I kinda think coaching and culture are part of the same thing, that I'd just call environment.
Williams and Maye are the clear #1 and #2 on my board at QB this year. Ideally, they end up on the Bears and Vikings for their best chances of panning out. I worry for anyone who goes to NE or NYG, and maybe even Denver. Raiders are probably a neutral landing spot.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
I love the enthusiasm, but can we please avoid lengthy quote chains.
It's a struggle to read through on mobile.
It's a struggle to read through on mobile.
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Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I get that, but a Carr type on a rookie contract can be really valuable.
Of course I think Carr is an average starter, YMMV.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah the Bengals were an example of one of the teams with a good QB.
Good QB - Chiefs, Bills, Bengals
Complete roster - Titans, Patriots, Steelers, Raiders
A few years later, the teams that were good because they had a good QB are still good. The teams that were good because they had a complete roster mostly suck now. Yes the Steelers aren't terrible, but they're 75:1 to win the Super bowl this year, compared to 14:1 Bengals, 12:1 Bills, 6:1 Chiefs.
Every year there is some new team that has put together a nice overall team. But a year or two later they're gone and forgotten and back to the bottom. The teams that are there year in and year out typically have one thing in common.
That was my point about the Lions. They were brought up as an example of how you don't have to have a top QB. But that's recency bias. Maybe that works for a year or two but by far the most likely scenario is a few years from now we've have forgotten about the Lions just as much as we've forgotten about the Titans or Browns of a few years ago, while teams like the Chiefs/Bills/Bengals are still right there as Super bowl favorites year in and year out.
I agree that finding a top QB is difficult. That's why I think you need to devote the majority of your resources to finding one until you do. Because building a complete roster is equally difficult and equally costs a lot of resources, but the payout is much lower. If you devote all the time and resources to building a solid overall team with a middling QB and you get everything right what's the payout, you get 1 or 2 years where you have an outside shot of competing like the Lions/Titans/Browns? But if you devote all that time and resources to finding a top QB and you get it right, the payout is significantly better with many years of being a consistent contender every year and likely a few Super Bowls mixed in.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
@FreeBaGeL Your posts are great, but if you keep feeding us these full course meals, we won't have any room for dessert 
Sometimes just a side salad or an appetizer hits the spot, and will get us coming back for more.
Sometimes just a side salad or an appetizer hits the spot, and will get us coming back for more.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
If you can get 6:1 on the Chiefs right now, I like betting it... but only what you can afford to comfortably lose of course.
Unless you're using a very narrow definition Stafford was elite, he's been up and down with injuries but was elite when they won it.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
^Stafford is getting up there in age, but I've considered him a top 8 QB for sure.
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
If the end goal is a wild card weekend appearence, then Derek Carr is a meaningful player.
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