eakfootball
Footballguy
Glazer is reporting that Poz will sign with the Jaguars. Does this help or hurt his value.
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Posluzny to Jax (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter eakfootball
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johnnyboy8102
Footballguy
I actually think it hurts a bit because Jax's home scorekeeper is stingy on assists.
sihaokills
Footballguy
Helps
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Posluszny certainly could have gone to a worse situation, but I can't imagine the scenario where the move to Jacksonville helps his value.
In Buffalo Poz was on the most porous run defense in football, resulting in ridiculously high tackle opportunity. On top of that, he had the most IDP friendly score keeper in the NFL.
Just don't see how moving back to MLB in Jacksonville's 4-3 will be enough for him to maintain the level of productivity he had in Buffalo.
In Buffalo Poz was on the most porous run defense in football, resulting in ridiculously high tackle opportunity. On top of that, he had the most IDP friendly score keeper in the NFL.
Just don't see how moving back to MLB in Jacksonville's 4-3 will be enough for him to maintain the level of productivity he had in Buffalo.
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therokie0070
Footballguy
Anyone who thinks this is good for Poz is crazy!!!! he will go from 150+ tackles to 120 if not less, Buf stats people love to pad with assist!!! The real story here is who steps in at Buf Shepard or FA!!!
Really? With a fantasy football dream case scenario in Buffalo last year, he had 103/49 tackles last in 14 games, with one of the most generous scorekeepers in the league padding his stats. Do you really think he's going to improve on those numbers? Hardly anyone in the league can do that.It's not like he's going to totally suck in Jacksonville, but his days as a top 5 "elite" LB are over. As mentioned, I hope the money was worth it because he's going to rot away down there. There will likely be a big house clearing after this season when they suck again this year. New coaches, maybe a new defensive scheme, who knows. I think it's pretty bad for his fantasy outlook. Not like Kirk Morrison bad last year (I still had high hopes for him at this time last summer, before he became a bum), but owners took it off the chin today big time. There's nothing to like about him signing in JAX, but I guess it's still easy to say "Cool, he's going to be their 3 down MLB. What's not to like?" Plenty of things...
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J Giles Band
Footballguy
As opposed to wasting away in Buffalo?
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Whitney26
Footballguy
I'm not familiar with the depth chart in Buffalo, but I'm not convinced Kelvin Sheppard will be the guy once it's all said and done.
Here are some tweets from Greg Cosell regarding both:
"LSU LB Sheppard lacking NFL attributes. Tight-hipped, not athletic or physical. HIgh cut and played upright with little leverage + power."
"Looking at each team's draft based on my film study. Bills: Liked LB White better than Sheppard"
I really have a lot of respect for Cosell. I watched White at MSU, and he was a tackling machine. Regardless, it's going to be interesting to see if he's right.
Here are some tweets from Greg Cosell regarding both:
"LSU LB Sheppard lacking NFL attributes. Tight-hipped, not athletic or physical. HIgh cut and played upright with little leverage + power."
"Looking at each team's draft based on my film study. Bills: Liked LB White better than Sheppard"
I really have a lot of respect for Cosell. I watched White at MSU, and he was a tackling machine. Regardless, it's going to be interesting to see if he's right.
Warpig
Footballguy
I don't know exactly what to think of this. I own Poz in 1 league and I'm a J-ville homer so I was kind of excited they got him. And if you listen to people talk about Alualu and Knighton they seem to be pretty good and only getting better (while I have my reservations). If Alualu and Knighton continue to progress and they can get some help from their DE's, I think the J-ville LB's across the board will be ok. Hell, their SLB (Daryl Smith) led them in tackles last year. I'm assuming their LB corps will be D. Smith at SLB, Poz at MLB, and K. Morrison at WLB? That's a pretty solid group. Unfortunately, they will all probably put up similar tackle numbers.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm shocked to see people saying this will hurt his value. 
J Giles Band
Footballguy
If so, take a look at his tackle numbers in Buffalo last season. Those are not likely to be replicated anywhere else. Do the math. Guys don't tend to improve on 150+ tackles.I'm shocked to see people saying this will hurt his value.
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GridironMenace
Footballguy
This surely will hurt his value. It really isn't even a question. The only question is by how much.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Would he have improved on them had he stayed in Buffalo?If so, take a look at his tackle numbers in Buffalo last season. Those are not likely to be replicated anywhere else. Do the math. Guys don't tend to improve on 150+ tackles.I'm shocked to see people saying this will hurt his value.
I don't think there's much of a chance that this helps his value, but he could/should still be a lower-tier LB1 in Jacksonville. The bigger story will be waiting to see who is likely to replace him in Buffalo as that player could see a huge increase in value the minute he signs. I don't think the Bills will go into the season with just Andra Davis and Kelvin Sheppard inside.
GridironMenace
Footballguy
I personally would love to see Kevin Burnett in Buffalo. Nick Barnett is a good fit too.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Truth is there was little chance he was going to improve on his numbers no mattter if he stayed or if he went elsewhere.
He has as much chance of being a top LB1 with Jacksonville as he did with Buffalo.
He has as much chance of being a top LB1 with Jacksonville as he did with Buffalo.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Poz (in Buffalo) was almost unanimously ranked as a top 5 LB in FBG's IDP rankings. The expectation was that his tackle opportunity in Buffalo was likely to be status quo. Considering he missed 2 games last season, he might even eclipse his total from this past season.My bet is he drops in the FBG's next set of rankings.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Coincidentally, "Centerfold" by the J. Giles Band was just playing on my Slacker feed.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Unlikely... But we can always agree to disagree.
Coincidentally, "Centerfold" by the J. Giles Band was just playing on my Slacker feed.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
What facts? Why is last year not the aberration considering Pos had 111/110 tackles the previous two years?Jacksonville as 22nd against the run last year. Buffalo was 32nd. A difference to be sure, but not enough to say that it's a "fact" that his numbers won't be top tier (even if they don't match last year's).Unlikely... You are certainly entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
I actually edited my post so as not to come off the wrong way... sorry. But your quote that Poz has as much chance of being a top LB1 with Jacksonville as he did with Buffalo comes off as fact.I don't think you are completely off base in that Poz is still likely a LB1, I just happen to disagree that he remains in the top half of the tier. My basis is on the tackle opportunity (32nd run defense vs 22nd as you mentioned) AND the score keeper difference. The studies from this past season showed the Buffalo score keeper as one of if not the most IDP friendly in the NFL.Furthermore, if you take a look at the tackle numbers for the Jacksonville LB's from this past season, there is nothing to suggest the same tackle opportunity there. And while I love Poz, I'm not convinced he is enough of a transcendent talent to come in and make 150+ tackles again.What facts? Why is last year not the aberration considering Pos had 111/110 tackles the previous two years?Jacksonville as 22nd against the run last year. Buffalo was 32nd. A difference to be sure, but not enough to say that it's a "fact" that his numbers won't be top tier (even if they don't match last year's).Unlikely... You are certainly entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think your first two points are fair enough.In regards to this though, two things:1) Poz is better than what has played there.2) Getting to 150+ is extremely difficult for anyone. Even Willis only had 128 last year. I'm just saying it's a bit of a crapshoot expecting that type of production year in/year out from anyone regardless of situation.
I'm not certain of this. I would have loved to see him stick around, but I don't think he's as good as his stats might suggest either. He wraps guys up, but isn't particularly physical at the point of attack and doesn't make nearly enough big plays.Smith, Durant, and Morrison are all pretty good NFL linebackers.
eakfootball
Footballguy
I gotta agree with Andy D on this one. I don't think it helps the value, but I wouldn't say it hurts it either. Plus all the less educated owners will hear his name in the news, and see the shiny JAX jersey and want to pay a lot for him.
JOBOOZOSO
Footballguy
True, but he could have went to the Giants if they ponied up some cash.As opposed to wasting away in Buffalo?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Agree with Aaron that Posluszny isn't an elite linebacker talent. And it certainly seemed clear this month that he wasn't as interested in returning as once thought. The 4-3 comment is interesting. I'd expect him to see just as many interior linemen in his face behind Jacksonville's so-so DT group as the front three in Buffalo, which should be getting better with Dareus.
The opportunity may not be as good in Jax, but there's still 95 solo potential. Posluszny won't be in my top five now, but he's still a LB1.
Have to wait and see whether the Bills look at a veteran to play next to Andra Davis or go with two thumpers at ILB and let Sheppard play on the weak side. Every down job very much up in the air right now.
The opportunity may not be as good in Jax, but there's still 95 solo potential. Posluszny won't be in my top five now, but he's still a LB1.
Have to wait and see whether the Bills look at a veteran to play next to Andra Davis or go with two thumpers at ILB and let Sheppard play on the weak side. Every down job very much up in the air right now.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Hmmm. I have to admit, the fact that Morrison only got 89 tackles combined from the inside spot last year is a bit worrisome.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
golfguy
Footballguy
there is a reason the raiders got rid of him. paul is a tackling machine. he has been since he was in high school and then penn state. the DL in jag is better then buffalo, and that will help him, not hurt him. (see ray lewis when has good dlineman and when he doesn't). it's less bodies to deal with. he will still be a solid LB1 top 5 is possible, but somewhere in the top 8 should be good.
massraider
Footballguy
Morrison was a weak ILB that racked up tackles downfield on a bad Raiders team. If he got 89 last year in JAX, that's Poz's floor.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
And Morrison didn't play every down for a handful of games.Morrison was a weak ILB that racked up tackles downfield on a bad Raiders team. If he got 89 last year in JAX, that's Poz's floor.
5Rings
Lurker
Moats is an outside rush backerI am wondering the same. Hope it's Moats who I just added of waivers.'Patsfan39 said:
johnnyboy8102
Footballguy
Yes, it was standardized. However, places like Jax or St. Louis ALWAYS give just one player a tackle on every play. So the new scorekeeping will have no effect. The "standardizing" will only effect places like Buffalo, New England, Washington because they give 2 players a "tackle" on every play where one player gets a solo and another an assist. Now, both of those players will be credited with assists. Poz will play 1/2 games in Jacksonvile so I think he will be an 85-90 solo/15-20 assist guy now. Just check Daryl Smith, Morrison, or Durants tackle stats the past few seasons. Jacksonville has been stiny with crediting 2 players on tackles since the 2006 season.
ninerfanatic492000
Footballguy
well there is also that poz will be the best or most instinctual LB'er the jags and del rio have had since mike peterson in his prime. Mike had some primo fantasy seasons(90+ solo's) under Jack. the defensive still isn't exactly what i call'good' and after the halfway mark(or sooner?) when gabbert comes in the offense is going to be pretty ugly. the bills offense last year may have looked like a dream to what the jags may look like later in this year. the defenses will be of similar quality so i'd say the jags D will be on the field even more.
MindCrime
Footballguy
I didn't think that the move to jax would drop Poz more than a couple spots down In the LB1 range, but now there are rumblings that Jax is after Clint Session. Granted, Session is not a superior talent, he's probably the best competition that Poz has ever had for tackle stats. No Session: Poz still a solid LB1. With Session, Poz: Lb2 tier
other than the fact he'll play 3 downs, Poz and Morrison are pretty similar playersMorrison was a weak ILB that racked up tackles downfield on a bad Raiders team. If he got 89 last year in JAX, that's Poz's floor.
I just read that on rotoworld too. Session playing the 3 down WLB position next to Poz will create a much higher level of competition for tackles than Morrison would by far. He's had his injury issues the last few season, but the man is a beastly open field tackler. He'll gobble up a lot of tackles that Morrison would have blown. I really enjoyed watching Session play the 2009 season. Wow, Jacksonville made some serious defensive moves this year.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
The only negative I see is the change in scorekeepers. All other things being equal, there is little if any difference. However, the scorekeeper issue is a big one and it will drop Posluszny from a mid LB1 to a low one. I still see at least 90 solos.
therokie0070
Footballguy
Poz will go from LB1 to LB2+ in Jax!!! He will never see 100+ solo and 50 assist like he did in Buf!!! Try 90 Solo and 25 assist making him LB2+
Warpig
Footballguy
I just don't understand Jacksonville or Gene Smith or JDR. So they have Daryl Smith, Kirk Morrison, Poz, and now they are trying to bring in Session? All 3 of these guys can play all 3 LB positions! I think they would be fine with Smith, Morrison, and Poz. Instead of bringing in Session, take that money and go get a real WR! Not some 5'6" slot WR you are trying to convince yourself is a "real" #1 WR. Go get some GOOD DB help. J-ville will go 6 - 10 this year and hopefully then they will get rid of JDR and Gene Smith.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Morrison is likely out. Smith, Posluszny and Session would be a strong group of backers, all of whom will cover the short and intermediate zones well. If the pass rush stabilizes with some better DT play, they get continued improvement from Mincey (and Lane, etc), and Kampman returns healthy, they'll be taking some heat off a suspect secondary in a division with two very good passing offenses.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I know nothing about IDP FF, but from a purely football standpoint, I've seen enough of him to know that Poz is overrated. I have no problem with him, he seems like a good locker room guy, hard-worker, gets the most out of his athleticism....but he's not a $6 million/year player.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
You're probably right, but he's still likely to be an upgrade from Kirk Morrison. I used to wonder why the Raiders were always trying to replace him until I actually got to watch him every week in a Jaguars uniform. Almost anybody is an upgrade from Justin Durant.'Steve Tasker said:
Warpig
Footballguy
I didn't realize that Morrison was an FA. However, Session and Durant are pretty similar when you look at their stats and injury history. Maybe one man's trash is another man's treasure...not saying either of those guys are trash, but they are expendable according to their prior teams. And as far as their D-line play, I fear we may be overestimating their prospects for this year. Rotoworld stated that Knighton showed up overweight and didn't attend a single player organized activity. Apparently his work ethic is less than desirable. And I'm still not sold on Alualu...just seems like an average DT, but I'm willing to see if he gets better this year. We have an ugly mess at DE...putting a lot of stock in a 30+ year old guy coming off of a torn ACL. Mincey may or may not pan out, but the rest of those guys impersonating a DE are flushable.As far as Poz, he may end up wishing he had stayed in BUF. JDR is on the hot seat and so far, I'm not seeing the improvements needed for this team to get better. The LB play wasn't that bad last year...it was the secondary and the offense. There have been no moves to improve those two areas (as of yet). Poz...hope you enjoy the Florida weather...may be the best part of you tenure in J-ville.'Jene Bramel said:
