Post Draft Bloom 100 is here (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

I like your call on Manuel. There's a ton of potential there and he'll either bust out of the league become a good one, I don't see much middle ground for him.

I was actually surprised that the bust rate on QB's taken from in picks 11-40 since 1997 was only about 50%. Out of 23 taken there were only about 10 that were outright busts (left the jury out for Ponder and Weeden).

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Don't know where else to put this but...from Rotoworld:

Bengals OC Jay Gruden indicated that he doesn't plan to use No. 37 pick Giovani Bernard as a workhorse back.

"A unique back with the skill set that doesn't have to be a 25-carry guy," is how Gruden described Bernard. "He can be a 10-15 carry guy, catch eight balls, whatever it is, to help us out and make us more diverse." Gruden does believe Bernard offers "three-down" tools, but he's headed for a timeshare with power back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, at least initially. Gruden added that Bernard and sixth-round pick Rex Burkhead will be "competing for third-down spot."

So does that mean he thinks he's an 18-23 TOUCH a game player?

 

[cstu]

Don't know where else to put this but...from Rotoworld:

Bengals OC Jay Gruden indicated that he doesn't plan to use No. 37 pick Giovani Bernard as a workhorse back.

"A unique back with the skill set that doesn't have to be a 25-carry guy," is how Gruden described Bernard. "He can be a 10-15 carry guy, catch eight balls, whatever it is, to help us out and make us more diverse." Gruden does believe Bernard offers "three-down" tools, but he's headed for a timeshare with power back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, at least initially. Gruden added that Bernard and sixth-round pick Rex Burkhead will be "competing for third-down spot."

So does that mean he thinks he's an 18-23 TOUCH a game player?

Basically McCoy. And I'm ok with that.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Don't know where else to put this but...from Rotoworld:

Bengals OC Jay Gruden indicated that he doesn't plan to use No. 37 pick Giovani Bernard as a workhorse back.

"A unique back with the skill set that doesn't have to be a 25-carry guy," is how Gruden described Bernard. "He can be a 10-15 carry guy, catch eight balls, whatever it is, to help us out and make us more diverse." Gruden does believe Bernard offers "three-down" tools, but he's headed for a timeshare with power back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, at least initially. Gruden added that Bernard and sixth-round pick Rex Burkhead will be "competing for third-down spot."

So does that mean he thinks he's an 18-23 TOUCH a game player?

Basically McCoy. And I'm ok with that.

8 * 16 = 128 catches

 

[msommer]

Don't like that he gets to compete for third down duty. That implies that he won't get 1st and 2nd down no matter what.

Even though it is likely that he will get the third down role, is it realistic that the Bengals will go to their running back 18-23 times per game in 3rd down situations?

 

[cstu]

Don't like that he gets to compete for third down duty. That implies that he won't get 1st and 2nd down no matter what.

Even though it is likely that he will get the third down role, is it realistic that the Bengals will go to their running back 18-23 times per game in 3rd down situations?

You think coach wants to come out this early and say he's handed BJGE's job to a rookie? That helps no one. Better to let BJGE fight to keep his job. Writing is on the wall though for him though.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Don't like that he gets to compete for third down duty. That implies that he won't get 1st and 2nd down no matter what.

Even though it is likely that he will get the third down role, is it realistic that the Bengals will go to their running back 18-23 times per game in 3rd down situations?

Why exactly does the blue part imply the red part?

He didn't say he wasn't capable (in fact he clearly states the opposite). Or that he wouldn't play on 1st and/or 2nd.

I dont see how negating BJGE from the 3rd down competition and leaving it to the two rookies implies anything in regards to base sets.

 

[msommer]

Don't like that he gets to compete for third down duty. That implies that he won't get 1st and 2nd down no matter what.

Even though it is likely that he will get the third down role, is it realistic that the Bengals will go to their running back 18-23 times per game in 3rd down situations?

You think coach wants to come out this early and say he's handed BJGE's job to a rookie? That helps no one. Better to let BJGE fight to keep his job. Writing is on the wall though for him though.

There is nothing in the quote from that coach that Bernard is going to compete for 1st/2nd down duty this year.

He specifically mentions that Bernard will compete with Burkhard for 3rd down, the limit on carries - and gives a off hand number of catches that seems a bit high, even assuming perfect catch ratio.

Longer term don't disagree that Bernard could and possibly should take over. But so could a rookie in the 2014 draft or a FA signing.

This early info then points to Gio not having much fantasy relevance in 2013 unless he pulls a Darren Sproles.

Not many of the other rookies have better situations though, if any, so in context Gio might be the best rookie RB in 2013.

 

[msommer]

Don't like that he gets to compete for third down duty. That implies that he won't get 1st and 2nd down no matter what.

Even though it is likely that he will get the third down role, is it realistic that the Bengals will go to their running back 18-23 times per game in 3rd down situations?

Why exactly does the blue part imply the red part?

He didn't say he wasn't capable (in fact he clearly states the opposite). Or that he wouldn't play on 1st and/or 2nd.

I dont see how negating BJGE from the 3rd down competition and leaving it to the two rookies implies anything in regards to base sets.

Which do you think is more likely to give 10-15 carries a game?

a) a full load on 1st and 2nd down plus third down carries

b) third down carries, plus spelling BJGE when he is gassed

I lean towards B

ETA: I suppose it is possible to interpret the statement from Jay Gruden optimistically to mean that Gio and BJGE will alternate series like Stewart and WIlliams have done in CAR. That's not a recipe for fantasy stardom either, particularly if Gio is limited on carries overall.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Don't like that he gets to compete for third down duty. That implies that he won't get 1st and 2nd down no matter what.

Even though it is likely that he will get the third down role, is it realistic that the Bengals will go to their running back 18-23 times per game in 3rd down situations?

Why exactly does the blue part imply the red part?

He didn't say he wasn't capable (in fact he clearly states the opposite). Or that he wouldn't play on 1st and/or 2nd.

I dont see how negating BJGE from the 3rd down competition and leaving it to the two rookies implies anything in regards to base sets.

Which do you think is more likely to give 10-15 carries a game? a) a full load on 1st and 2nd down plus third down carries

b) third down carries, plus spelling BJGE when he is gassed

I lean towards B

ETA: I suppose it is possible to interpret the statement from Jay Gruden optimistically to mean that Gio and BJGE will alternate series like Stewart and WIlliams have done in CAR. That's not a recipe for fantasy stardom either, particularly if Gio is limited on carries overall.

Let say, as a rookie, he pulls off the median of 12.5 carries per game as per the coach. That's 200 carries. The team only had 345 carries from the RBs last year.

That's 58%. Now how would he do that without running just as many 1st and 2nds (for all intents and purposes) as BJGE?

 

[msommer]

And they drafted two RBs to run the same amount?

Maybe it is 10 carries per game on average...

 

[Hoosier16]

massraider, on 29 Apr 2013 - 19:07, said:

Hoosier16, on 29 Apr 2013 - 18:45, said:

Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:34, said:Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:34, said:

Hoosier16, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:21, said:Hoosier16, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:21, said:

Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 14:38, said:Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 14:38, said:because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role

With this is mind, #17 (offensively) seems awfully high for Michael. With Turbin and Lynch each having 3 years left on their contracts, it's hard to see him being relevant in the next 3 years without injury.

Strictly based on upside. Michael looked like the best natural runner on film in this class, and the Seahawks obviously agreed.

I don't discount his talent, just his situation. He'll turn 26 during the last year of Lynch's and Turbin's contracts. Prior to that, this looks at best like a RBBC for Michael. Is it worth waiting 3 years for pssobly 3 years of starter potential?

That assumption is that Lynch sees the end of that deal. Lynch will have a 9 million dollar cap number in 2015.

And you're assuming that teams don't ever renegotiate contracts to lower cap numbers.The only fact is that the Seahawks have three RBs under contract through the 2015 season. It's their choice. There is no clear path for Michael becoming a starter prior to the 2016 season. Is that really worth a mid 2nd round pick?

 

[EBF]

I think Michael is one of the best values in the late first round. I've taken him in 2 of 7 rookie drafts and would've taken him in 1-2 others if things had worked out differently. It's an investment in talent > situation. You're not banking on him making an immediate impact. You're banking on him eventually getting his chance a year or two down the line.

I've got some issues with his game. Primarily his lack of elusiveness in the second level. I think he's a bit like Ryan Mathews or Rashard Mendenhall in the sense that he's a size/speed guy with okay but not great avoidance skills. He gets to top speed in a flash and has a great size/speed combo, but once he gets rumbling he's not great at redirecting his momentum to dodge tackles and minimize hits. Runs a bit tight like Mathews. This type of back tends to take too many big shots and get injured, but when they're healthy they're usually pretty effective.

Michael's combine was just ridiculous. Ideal frame at 5'10" 220. Good speed. Off-the-charts 43" vertical leap. Very good broad jump (10'5") and three cone time (6.69s). He's not the best pure running back you'll ever see, but the guy is a freakish athlete. That rare athletic ability should see him become a serviceable NFL starter despite his warts.

 

[cstu]

I think Michael is one of the best values in the late first round. I've taken him in 2 of 7 rookie drafts and would've taken him in 1-2 others if things had worked out differently. It's an investment in talent > situation. You're not banking on him making an immediate impact. You're banking on him eventually getting his chance a year or two down the line.

I've got some issues with his game. Primarily his lack of elusiveness in the second level. I think he's a bit like Ryan Mathews or Rashard Mendenhall in the sense that he's a size/speed guy with okay but not great avoidance skills. He gets to top speed in a flash and has a great size/speed combo, but once he gets rumbling he's not great at redirecting his momentum to dodge tackles and minimize hits. Runs a bit tight like Mathews. This type of back tends to take too many big shots and get injured, but when they're healthy they're usually pretty effective.

Michael's combine was just ridiculous. Ideal frame at 5'10" 220. Good speed. Off-the-charts 43" vertical leap. Very good broad jump (10'5") and three cone time (6.69s). He's not the best pure running back you'll ever see, but the guy is a freakish athlete. That rare athletic ability should see him become a serviceable NFL starter despite his warts.

I think Mathews is a great comparison.

 

[Sabertooth]

I wouldn't take him in the first round but he is intriguing in the second. I own Marshawn and Turbin and feel I can make room for Michael if he slides to me but I am not about to move into the first to get him. Just too many other good players there. I currently have Michael and Lattimore neck at neck around the 15th best prospect.

That whole talent over situation thing reminds me a lot of Jonathan Stewart.

 

[Kree]

I wouldn't take him in the first round but he is intriguing in the second. I own Marshawn and Turbin and feel I can make room for Michael if he slides to me but I am not about to move into the first to get him. Just too many other good players there. I currently have Michael and Lattimore neck at neck around the 15th best prospect.

That whole talent over situation thing reminds me a lot of Jonathan Stewart.

I'm not complaining about Stewart-esque output, forcing the team to give him the ball despite a fellow, high talent at RB

I would probably take Lattimore over him, but really, that whole tier of talent isn't 'too good' to not consider a player like Michael, who was 'reached on' by a team that was already relatively stacked at RB.

Love him, as I said in another thread, reaching for him in every dynasty.

 

[Sabertooth]

I've come around on Lattimore simply because I think he'll hold his value (at least) if you can pick him up in the second round. I think you could trade him for a first rounder next season if you time it right regardless of whether he takes the field this year (as long as he doesn't hurt himself again).

 

[Sabertooth]

What is a the prevailing wisdom on Terrance Williams (Dallas). He was a pretty highly rated prospect who got drafted reasonably high (over Keenan Allen, Goodwin, Bailey, and Wheaton). Seems like he is in a good situation, especially with Austin looking like he's made of glass.

 

[SayWhat?]

I've come around on Lattimore simply because I think he'll hold his value (at least) if you can pick him up in the second round. I think you could trade him for a first rounder next season if you time it right regardless of whether he takes the field this year (as long as he doesn't hurt himself again).

I'd agree with you, if I saw Lattimore go in the 2nd in any of the drafts I've been a part of. He hasn't made it past the 1.10 yet.

 

[BigTex]

What is a the prevailing wisdom on Terrance Williams (Dallas). He was a pretty highly rated prospect who got drafted reasonably high (over Keenan Allen, Goodwin, Bailey, and Wheaton). Seems like he is in a good situation, especially with Austin looking like he's made of glass.

I'm a BIG fan of Williams. He has struggled a little bit catching balls during rookie camp but I think once he settles in he will take some catches from Dez. I've come to know Dez on a different level he is a good kid that is not as bad as the media has branded him in the past but I see Williams as a borderline #1 to top grade #2 fantasy WRs. I've watched every Baylor game the last two years and love what he brings to the table.

:twocents:

Tex

 

[Sabertooth]

7He certainly has the size to excel on the outside. And let's face it, as good as Miles and Dez are, they are both risks to miss games. Rumor was Dez was not in the long terms plans.

 

[Drop]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

 

[cusefan115]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

Hey Bloom,

You seem pretty high on Markus Wheaton. What do you see his ceiling as?

Thanks.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

Hey Bloom,

You seem pretty high on Markus Wheaton. What do you see his ceiling as?

Thanks.

Santonio Holmes with his head on straight

 

[cusefan115]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

Hey Bloom,

You seem pretty high on Markus Wheaton. What do you see his ceiling as?

Thanks.

Santonio Holmes with his head on straight

Thanks. One more question if you don't mind. How well do you think Robert Woods transitions to the next level? Does his lack of standout traits make him more of a wr3/flex option? It seems like he might have difficulty creating separation.

 

[Sabertooth]

I believe it was Bloom on the audible that stated he sees Woods as becoming another Roddy White. Just a very good clutch player who a QB can lean on.

 

[pghrob]

Sigmund, regarding your comments on Andre Ellington "In a terrible situation but I m finding it hard to leave behind what I loved on film", what is it that you saw on film that has you ranking Ellington as the number 30th overall rookie and number 9th ranked running back? Stepfan Taylor did not even make your top 100 list - so does that mean you see Ellington higher on the Cardinal's depth chart? What other team would you have preferred to see Ellington land on other than the Cardinals? Much thanks for your sharing your opinions.

 

[EBF]

Both Roddy White and Reggie Wayne are pretty good athletes. I'd say both are a bit underrated in that regard. Especially Roddy. The guy is 6'1" with 4.4 speed and very explosive numbers in the jumps (41" vertical and 10'6" broad jump). Woods is a similar size on paper, but in my opinion doesn't play quite as big. More importantly, he didn't demonstrate the same degree of explosiveness in the combine drills. Only a 33.5" vertical and 9'9" broad jump. Those figures are well below what you see from a typical standout #1 NFL receiver.

Woods is a good route runner and I think he has pretty good innate WR skills, but in my view he's probably going to top out as a second receiver at the next level.

 

[Bri]

Why the overwhelming love for Eifert over Gresham? Gresham was top TE coming out not too long ago and received plenty of praise himself.

 

[Drop]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

If you think Patterson has the upside of Harvin why doesn't Hunter have the upside of AJ Green?

 

[Sabertooth]

Why the overwhelming love for Eifert over Gresham? Gresham was top TE coming out not too long ago and received plenty of praise himself.

Gresham just hasn't really performed as a pass receiver as expected. Eifert has a chance to be like Witten.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

Hey Bloom,

You seem pretty high on Markus Wheaton. What do you see his ceiling as?

Thanks.

Santonio Holmes with his head on straight

Thanks. One more question if you don't mind. How well do you think Robert Woods transitions to the next level? Does his lack of standout traits make him more of a wr3/flex option? It seems like he might have difficulty creating separation.

I think he can be a solid WR2 a la USC Steve Smith, although the multitude of weapons in BUF and the nature of the offense could make it very hard for him to approach Smith's reception numbers at his peak

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Sigmund, regarding your comments on Andre Ellington "In a terrible situation but I m finding it hard to leave behind what I loved on film", what is it that you saw on film that has you ranking Ellington as the number 30th overall rookie and number 9th ranked running back? Stepfan Taylor did not even make your top 100 list - so does that mean you see Ellington higher on the Cardinal's depth chart? What other team would you have preferred to see Ellington land on other than the Cardinals? Much thanks for your sharing your opinions.

Taylor is there at #64. Ellington has legit long speed and he has better balance, leg drive, and ability to get yards after contact than his somewhat small size would lead you to believe - he reminds me of Chris Johnson. I see Taylor as a solid all-around back who is never the most talented back on his team's roster. Ellington would have been a terrific fit in Cincinnati as an RBBC partner with BJGE, or if the Packers had taken him in the 6th instead of Franklin in the 4th, that would have given him a chance to get a good amount of touches right away. If the Steelers are going to ZBS, that obviously would have been a good place for him. Those are all low-hanging fruit, situationally. San Diego, Oakland or Tennessee would have been good places with opportunity coming soon behind starters who are far from entrenched.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Both Roddy White and Reggie Wayne are pretty good athletes. I'd say both are a bit underrated in that regard. Especially Roddy. The guy is 6'1" with 4.4 speed and very explosive numbers in the jumps (41" vertical and 10'6" broad jump). Woods is a similar size on paper, but in my opinion doesn't play quite as big. More importantly, he didn't demonstrate the same degree of explosiveness in the combine drills. Only a 33.5" vertical and 9'9" broad jump. Those figures are well below what you see from a typical standout #1 NFL receiver.

Woods is a good route runner and I think he has pretty good innate WR skills, but in my view he's probably going to top out as a second receiver at the next level.

2011/2012 Woods looks like a 2nd receiver. There is a chance that he has been hampered by an ankle injury that hasn't been 100% during that stretch. He looked faster and more explosive in 2010. To give you an idea of how the ankle affected him, you can find multiple times on his 2011 tape where Woods is overthrown by Matt Barkley when he is open deep...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

If you think Patterson has the upside of Harvin why doesn't Hunter have the upside of AJ Green?

I would say the better best case comparison for Hunter would be Randy Moss.

From a purely physical standpoint, Hunter pre-ACL did have Moss's length, jets, ups, and killer instinct. The problem is that he hasn't flashed like that since 2010, and he was extremely inconsistent this year when it came time to catch the ball.

On the other hand, Patterson looked like Harvin in the open field last year, and not just on one or two plays. He's really not that different at all from Harvin when he came out, except he's bigger.

So while they may both have very high ceilings, Patterson looks more capable of hitting his.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Why the overwhelming love for Eifert over Gresham? Gresham was top TE coming out not too long ago and received plenty of praise himself.

Gresham just hasn't really performed as a pass receiver as expected. Eifert has a chance to be like Witten.

Gresham has been very disappointing as a receiver. He hasn't offered much at all after the catch, and when the Bengals chose to feature him in the playoffs against the Texans, he let them down in a big way. Eifert should have no trouble getting ahead of him in the pecking order for targets. He's got better hands, ball skills, and lots of experience lining up outside and running downfield routes. Eifert excels in jumpball situations, and he should also be the #2 option in the red zone after Green.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

What about Eifert vs. Kelce? Seems that Kelce's road to PT is more wide open, Reid's O has generally been a pretty okay place for a TE, plus Kelce looks like the kind of guy who, ultimately, won't be taken off the field since he can block.

Is this something where you'd say Eifert>Kelce, or Eifert>>>Kelce?

Am I nuts to think that Kelce>Eifert? Because....I think I do.

Perhaps not in year one, but going forward? I can see it. Not that enamored of Alex Smith as Kelce's QB, but I'm not the biggest Dalton fan either.

 

[FUBAR]

What about Eifert vs. Kelce? Seems that Kelce's road to PT is more wide open, Reid's O has generally been a pretty okay place for a TE, plus Kelce looks like the kind of guy who, ultimately, won't be taken off the field since he can block.

Is this something where you'd say Eifert>Kelce, or Eifert>>>Kelce?

Am I nuts to think that Kelce>Eifert? Because....I think I do.

Perhaps not in year one, but going forward? I can see it. Not that enamored of Alex Smith as Kelce's QB, but I'm not the biggest Dalton fan either.

IMO, Eifert has a very good chance of being a top 10 TE soon and might be among the "just under elites". Kelce could be top 5 eventually but is more likely to be irrelevant in FF.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

What about Eifert vs. Kelce? Seems that Kelce's road to PT is more wide open, Reid's O has generally been a pretty okay place for a TE, plus Kelce looks like the kind of guy who, ultimately, won't be taken off the field since he can block.

Is this something where you'd say Eifert>Kelce, or Eifert>>>Kelce?

Am I nuts to think that Kelce>Eifert? Because....I think I do.

Perhaps not in year one, but going forward? I can see it. Not that enamored of Alex Smith as Kelce's QB, but I'm not the biggest Dalton fan either.

Kelce's ceiling is higher than Eifert's, and his situation is better too, but he comes with more risk. Kelce could eventually be >>> Eifert, but Eifert's chances of becoming at least a low TE1 are very very high, and his bust risk is minuscule. Kelce has character questions and isn't as nearly as polished as a receiver. If you can get Kelce a round later than Eifert, he might end up being the better investment.

 

[gandalas]

Anyone care to guess where Austin and Patterson would rank among dynasty wr as a whole? top 20?

In the startup dynasty draft I am in right now, Patterson went WR25 and Austin went WR28. Hopkins WR30, Allen WR44.

 

[saintfool]

What about Eifert vs. Kelce? Seems that Kelce's road to PT is more wide open, Reid's O has generally been a pretty okay place for a TE, plus Kelce looks like the kind of guy who, ultimately, won't be taken off the field since he can block.

Is this something where you'd say Eifert>Kelce, or Eifert>>>Kelce?

Am I nuts to think that Kelce>Eifert? Because....I think I do.

Perhaps not in year one, but going forward? I can see it. Not that enamored of Alex Smith as Kelce's QB, but I'm not the biggest Dalton fan either.

Kelce's ceiling is higher than Eifert's, and his situation is better too, but he comes with more risk. Kelce could eventually be >>> Eifert, but Eifert's chances of becoming at least a low TE1 are very very high, and his bust risk is minuscule. Kelce has character questions and isn't as nearly as polished as a receiver. If you can get Kelce a round later than Eifert, he might end up being the better investment.

Andy Reid brought in the Pistol Guru as a consultant the other day. While I don't think he's going to replace his own vision for the offense given the personnel, do the Pistol concepts do lend themselves to thee West Coast system he's run. Does the Pistol help a TE?

 

[cusefan115]

Anyone care to guess where Austin and Patterson would rank among dynasty wr as a whole? top 20?

In the startup dynasty draft I am in right now, Patterson went WR25 and Austin went WR28. Hopkins WR30, Allen WR44.

Interesting. Seems split 50/50 on Austin v. Patterson as the first wr off the board.

 

[Black]

Anyone care to guess where Austin and Patterson would rank among dynasty wr as a whole? top 20?

In the startup dynasty draft I am in right now, Patterson went WR25 and Austin went WR28. Hopkins WR30, Allen WR44.

Interesting. Seems split 50/50 on Austin v. Patterson as the first wr off the board.

What about Hopkins vs. Allen? Traditionally seen that spacing, with DeAndre ranked higher (top 5-6 in rookie drafts, with Allen dropping to 8-12 overall).

Seems like Allen has clearer path to a WR1 status, but most have DeAndre ranked higher. Is it because Deandre is more 'NFL ready'? Issues with Allen's knee?

 

[bonesman]

Anyone care to guess where Austin and Patterson would rank among dynasty wr as a whole? top 20?

In the startup dynasty draft I am in right now, Patterson went WR25 and Austin went WR28. Hopkins WR30, Allen WR44.

Interesting. Seems split 50/50 on Austin v. Patterson as the first wr off the board.

What about Hopkins vs. Allen? Traditionally seen that spacing, with DeAndre ranked higher (top 5-6 in rookie drafts, with Allen dropping to 8-12 overall).

Seems like Allen has clearer path to a WR1 status, but most have DeAndre ranked higher. Is it because Deandre is more 'NFL ready'? Issues with Allen's knee?

Higher upside, draft pedigree.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Cool story on the Charles Johnson kid.

 

[Drop]

I don't understand why Justin Hunter can't become an elite WR, but Patterson can.

That's not a bad criticism actually. Hunter does have the 2nd highest ceiling of any WR in this class after Patterson, and you might argue higher.

If you think Patterson has the upside of Harvin why doesn't Hunter have the upside of AJ Green?

I would say the better best case comparison for Hunter would be Randy Moss.

From a purely physical standpoint, Hunter pre-ACL did have Moss's length, jets, ups, and killer instinct. The problem is that he hasn't flashed like that since 2010, and he was extremely inconsistent this year when it came time to catch the ball.

On the other hand, Patterson looked like Harvin in the open field last year, and not just on one or two plays. He's really not that different at all from Harvin when he came out, except he's bigger.

So while they may both have very high ceilings, Patterson looks more capable of hitting his.

Randy Moss is an elite WR1 so I am missing your point. There is something about Patterson that is causing you to be selectively optimistic in terms of upside. The Harvin comparisons are off base though. Harvin is unlike so many other players before him. This notion of just get him the ball and he'll make plays is being incorrectly applied to Patterson for the big reason that Patterson hasn't shown an ability to run inbetween the tackles. Patterson has only shown to be a gimmick perimeter runner, while Harvin can run foundation running game plays as a HB and he also possess the route running ability of a receiving HB. Thus Harvin can get the ball in many more practical and strategically viable ways. Not to mention the intensity and power that Harvin runs with, which speaks to a mentality that Patterson lacks as well. I don't think many would compare the two solely on WR skills, it's due to wishful thinking that the slash part of their games are equal when they are clearly not. This is the subtle distinction that I think many people are failing to make. Review the nature of their plays with the ball in their hands. Note how quickly Harvin is able to get north and south and where he is on the field when he does it and compare that to Patterson who is almost exclusively doing it on the perimeter on slower developing plays. Harvin gets downhill and has vision in heavy interior traffic, it's something defenses won't have to worry about with Patterson because he's not gutting teams up the middle instead he bounces and strings things. I think the wide side of the NCAA field helped Patterson and the lack of dimensions as a runner is going to make funneling him easier and NFL defenders will understand the tendancies of his improv skills better. I know that Patterson has some open field ability, but the look of his plays usually resemble a game of smear the queer where he is going sideline to sideline, as apposed to Harvin who can use the A or B gaps and gash a defense quickly which I think translates to the NFL better because he uses his quickness to beat power in the middle of the field much more effeciently. Patterson hasn't shown the aerial ball skills and leaping extension technique to dominate as an outside WR, nor has he shown the jitterbug quickness and route footwork to work the slot underneath stuff. He's so much different than Harvin when you look closely at how they play and how defenses must adjust to them given all strategies they use at a high level.

As for Hunter he has shown that he can get open, go up and get he ball in a way that there is no defense for. He's inconsistent, but he was coming off a major injury and he's an amateur. Now he's a professional and he's healthier. Everything you want him to do as an outside WR he can do and he can do it in a way that often leaves defenses helpless when the play is executed well. Reps will help refine his game, it's how pros become consistent. He has a way to go obviously, but he doesn't need to reinvent himself because what he does now translates to the NFL.

 

[FUBAR]

What about Eifert vs. Kelce? Seems that Kelce's road to PT is more wide open, Reid's O has generally been a pretty okay place for a TE, plus Kelce looks like the kind of guy who, ultimately, won't be taken off the field since he can block.

Is this something where you'd say Eifert>Kelce, or Eifert>>>Kelce?

Am I nuts to think that Kelce>Eifert? Because....I think I do.

Perhaps not in year one, but going forward? I can see it. Not that enamored of Alex Smith as Kelce's QB, but I'm not the biggest Dalton fan either.

Kelce's ceiling is higher than Eifert's, and his situation is better too, but he comes with more risk. Kelce could eventually be >>> Eifert, but Eifert's chances of becoming at least a low TE1 are very very high, and his bust risk is minuscule. Kelce has character questions and isn't as nearly as polished as a receiver. If you can get Kelce a round later than Eifert, he might end up being the better investment.

Andy Reid brought in the Pistol Guru as a consultant the other day. While I don't think he's going to replace his own vision for the offense given the personnel, do the Pistol concepts do lend themselves to thee West Coast system he's run. Does the Pistol help a TE?

Vernon Davis says

 

[Dolt_Cretin]

Great article as always Bloom, thanks for sharing it! In the end, how much back and forth was there for you on the Montee Ball ranking? I agree with talent over situation in dynasty...but to my eyes the RB's above Ball aren't significantly better (if they are indeed better) and his situation is awfully good...even if Hillman does take carries. Tough decision for you or no brainer?

 

[FUBAR]

Cool story on the Charles Johnson kid.

I'm hoping he is a feel good story long term. I like the kid.