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Post Draft Bloom 100 is here (1 Viewer)

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.

Apparently you like the upsides of the rookie TEs

 
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Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.
Harper sits? Im sure he'll be in nickel and dime, but base?
Harper sits (and comes in on passing situations) or is cut.

Edit: And why do we (not just you Sig, lots do this) care if Fox plays Ball this year when we're considering these guys for dynasty purposes?

 
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EBF

Footballguy
Franklin is the frontrunner for most overdrafted rookie based on my early drafts. He's not in my top 25.

IMO the guy is a backup caliber talent. That he fell all the way to the late 4th doesn't do much to contradict that.

 

Donnybrook

Footballguy
Seeing Aaron Dobson ranked behind Da'rick Rogers is giving me flash backs to when you ranked Chad Span ahead of Steven Ridley.

What can I say other than Dobson should be good value in this years rookie drafts.

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
Interesting that you have Rivera as the rookie TE to watch for over Kasa who was drafted earlier and has the better overall draft rating and 40 time. But I tend to agree with this after seeing tape of both rookies. Rivera's got good hands, and the starting TE slot is a wide open competition now that Myers is gone to New York.

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
Patterson ahead of Austin will generate some conversation.

Thanks Bloom
He's got Patterson listed as an "Elite WR 1"

Even as a Vikings fan I think that's pretty bold for a rookie WR. Even Julio Jones wasn't an Elite WR his first year, although he showed signs that he had become one at the end of the season.

Keeping my fingers crossed Bloom is right, and I think it will all depend on the guidance of Greg Jennings.

 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
Patterson ahead of Austin will generate some conversation.

Thanks Bloom
He's got Patterson listed as an "Elite WR 1"

Even as a Vikings fan I think that's pretty bold for a rookie WR. Even Julio Jones wasn't an Elite WR his first year, although he showed signs that he had become one at the end of the season.

Keeping my fingers crossed Bloom is right, and I think it will all depend on the guidance of Greg Jennings.
And Ponder proving he has the capability to be a consistent NFL caliber QB.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Patterson ahead of Austin will generate some conversation.

Thanks Bloom
He's got Patterson listed as an "Elite WR 1"

Even as a Vikings fan I think that's pretty bold for a rookie WR. Even Julio Jones wasn't an Elite WR his first year, although he showed signs that he had become one at the end of the season.

Keeping my fingers crossed Bloom is right, and I think it will all depend on the guidance of Greg Jennings.
thats his upside. he also has a high risk factor

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.
Harper sits? Im sure he'll be in nickel and dime, but base?
Harper sits (and comes in on passing situations) or is cut.

Edit: And why do we (not just you Sig, lots do this) care if Fox plays Ball this year when we're considering these guys for dynasty purposes?
because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
If it takes Vaccaro a year to start on that defense something went terribly wrong.
Harper sits? Im sure he'll be in nickel and dime, but base?
Harper sits (and comes in on passing situations) or is cut.

Edit: And why do we (not just you Sig, lots do this) care if Fox plays Ball this year when we're considering these guys for dynasty purposes?
because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role
The next guy would break the Fox mold? Why wouldn't the rule be true for him too?

Hillman was never going to be the guy in Denver. So I dispute it's just like his situation

 
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massraider

Footballguy
IDP owners have to be pretty happy where most of these guys ended up.

Ansah and Jordan as DEs in 4-3, Brown and Jones went to spectacular situations, Bostic and Alonso as well to a lesser extent, and as an Oakland homer, it's tough to imagine Moore not being a compiler on a bad defense. Burris is penciled in as the WLB, but Moore is a lot more athletic. he may be a 3 down LB early in the season.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
IDP owners have to be pretty happy where most of these guys ended up.

Ansah and Jordan as DEs in 4-3, Brown and Jones went to spectacular situations, Bostic and Alonso as well to a lesser extent, and as an Oakland homer, it's tough to imagine Moore not being a compiler on a bad defense. Burris is penciled in as the WLB, but Moore is a lot more athletic. he may be a 3 down LB early in the season.
agree IDP class looks a lot better for FF than it did pre-draft

 

Hoosier16

Footballguy
because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role
With this is mind, #17 (offensively) seems awfully high for Michael. With Turbin and Lynch each having 3 years left on their contracts, it's hard to see him being relevant in the next 3 years without injury.
 
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ExaltedOne

Footballguy
I'm having trouble understanding why these two players are so spread out considering their upside/risk factors:

8. Keenan Allen WR SD 9 Floyd and Alexander shouldn t be hard to overtake High WR2 3 15. Justin Hunter WR TEN 15 flashes of greatness but inconsistent much like guy he s trying to displace Low WR1 4 Seems like they should be much tighter in ranking. Risk factors are similar and if Hunter can be a WR1 that seems worth the slightly higher risk, no?

Personally I think the two are close but haven't done enough research for my own rankings yet.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role
With this is mind, #17 (offensively) seems awfully high for Michael. With Turbin and Lynch each having 3 years left on their contracts, it's hard to see him being relevant in the next 3 years without injury.
Strictly based on upside. Michael looked like the best natural runner on film in this class, and the Seahawks obviously agreed.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
I'm having trouble understanding why these two players are so spread out considering their upside/risk factors:

8. Keenan Allen WR SD 9 Floyd and Alexander shouldn t be hard to overtake High WR2 315. Justin Hunter WR TEN 15 flashes of greatness but inconsistent much like guy he s trying to displace Low WR1 4Seems like they should be much tighter in ranking. Risk factors are similar and if Hunter can be a WR1 that seems worth the slightly higher risk, no?

Personally I think the two are close but haven't done enough research for my own rankings yet.
the spread isn't as big as the numbers indicate. I have allen and hunter close in talent.

 

werdnoynek

Footballguy
Patterson ahead of Austin will generate some conversation.

Thanks Bloom
He's got Patterson listed as an "Elite WR 1"

Even as a Vikings fan I think that's pretty bold for a rookie WR. Even Julio Jones wasn't an Elite WR his first year, although he showed signs that he had become one at the end of the season.

Keeping my fingers crossed Bloom is right, and I think it will all depend on the guidance of Greg Jennings.
Elite WR 1 as his UPSIDE. He's not saying he's an Elite WR 1 RIGHT NOW.

I completely agree with this call Bloom and the reason why I took Patterson over Austin in my rookie draft with the 1.01.

I love Austin but I see his upside limited to under the Elite line.

Bold call but I completely agree.

 

ExaltedOne

Footballguy
I'm having trouble understanding why these two players are so spread out considering their upside/risk factors:

8. Keenan Allen WR SD 9 Floyd and Alexander shouldn t be hard to overtake High WR2 315. Justin Hunter WR TEN 15 flashes of greatness but inconsistent much like guy he s trying to displace Low WR1 4Seems like they should be much tighter in ranking. Risk factors are similar and if Hunter can be a WR1 that seems worth the slightly higher risk, no?

Personally I think the two are close but haven't done enough research for my own rankings yet.
the spread isn't as big as the numbers indicate. I have allen and hunter close in talent.
So why the big drop off in ratings? Allen as a mid-1st and Hunter an early-mid 2nd. Is this due to competition/QB play?

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
ExaltedOne said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
ExaltedOne said:
I'm having trouble understanding why these two players are so spread out considering their upside/risk factors:

8. Keenan Allen WR SD 9 Floyd and Alexander shouldn t be hard to overtake High WR2 315. Justin Hunter WR TEN 15 flashes of greatness but inconsistent much like guy he s trying to displace Low WR1 4Seems like they should be much tighter in ranking. Risk factors are similar and if Hunter can be a WR1 that seems worth the slightly higher risk, no?

Personally I think the two are close but haven't done enough research for my own rankings yet.
the spread isn't as big as the numbers indicate. I have allen and hunter close in talent.
So why the big drop off in ratings? Allen as a mid-1st and Hunter an early-mid 2nd. Is this due to competition/QB play?
QB play and lack of trust in locker is a small part of it. honestly its probably more that the 8-15 players are tightly packed

 

Hoosier16

Footballguy
Sigmund Bloom said:
Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:34, said:

Hoosier16 said:
Hoosier16, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:21, said:

Sigmund Bloom said:
Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 14:38, said:because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role
With this is mind, #17 (offensively) seems awfully high for Michael. With Turbin and Lynch each having 3 years left on their contracts, it's hard to see him being relevant in the next 3 years without injury.
Strictly based on upside. Michael looked like the best natural runner on film in this class, and the Seahawks obviously agreed.
I don't discount his talent, just his situation. He'll turn 26 during the last year of Lynch's and Turbin's contracts. Prior to that, this looks at best like a RBBC for Michael. Is it worth waiting 3 years for pssobly 3 years of starter potential?
 

massraider

Footballguy
Sigmund Bloom said:
Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:34, said:

Hoosier16 said:
Hoosier16, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:21, said:

Sigmund Bloom said:
Sigmund Bloom, on 29 Apr 2013 - 14:38, said:because just like w Hillman, the longer it takes to get on the field, the more likely someone will usurp your shot for a big role
With this is mind, #17 (offensively) seems awfully high for Michael. With Turbin and Lynch each having 3 years left on their contracts, it's hard to see him being relevant in the next 3 years without injury.
Strictly based on upside. Michael looked like the best natural runner on film in this class, and the Seahawks obviously agreed.
I don't discount his talent, just his situation. He'll turn 26 during the last year of Lynch's and Turbin's contracts. Prior to that, this looks at best like a RBBC for Michael. Is it worth waiting 3 years for pssobly 3 years of starter potential?
That assumption is that Lynch sees the end of that deal. Lynch will have a 9 million dollar cap number in 2015.

 

RavenLunatic

Footballguy
My concern with Michael is his lack of maturity. Curious if he will be able to maintain focus with potentially limited playing time?

Can anyone else envision Turbin moving to a FB/HB role? He dropped a lot of passes last year but get him in the flat and he will flatten some DBs.

 

biju

Footballguy
My concern with Michael is his lack of maturity. Curious if he will be able to maintain focus with potentially limited playing time?Can anyone else envision Turbin moving to a FB/HB role? He dropped a lot of passes last year but get him in the flat and he will flatten some DBs.
I've read this (bolded) a couple of times and I wonder where that is coming from. I can really only think of one really blatant drop (against the 49ers) and one that was tipped up by him on a slightly errant pass and ended up being intercepted (oddly enough, in the 2nd game against SF). Those are two of his 23 targets last year, a year in which he had 19 catches. So in other words I think the worst case scenario for him would be 3 drops (the 1st SF game and the two I can't remember), and most likely one or both of those ones I can't remember weren't drops.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
ExaltedOne said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
ExaltedOne said:
I'm having trouble understanding why these two players are so spread out considering their upside/risk factors:

8. Keenan Allen WR SD 9 Floyd and Alexander shouldn t be hard to overtake High WR2 315. Justin Hunter WR TEN 15 flashes of greatness but inconsistent much like guy he s trying to displace Low WR1 4Seems like they should be much tighter in ranking. Risk factors are similar and if Hunter can be a WR1 that seems worth the slightly higher risk, no?

Personally I think the two are close but haven't done enough research for my own rankings yet.
the spread isn't as big as the numbers indicate. I have allen and hunter close in talent.
So why the big drop off in ratings? Allen as a mid-1st and Hunter an early-mid 2nd. Is this due to competition/QB play?
QB play and lack of trust in locker is a small part of it. honestly its probably more that the 8-15 players are tightly packed
I think it is a pretty big gap between Rivers and Locker + whoever they go with after Locker loses the job.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Nice work as usual Bloom.

One thing I disagree with you about it this

22. Josh Boyce WR NE 32 Like his game better than Dobson. Faster and more consistent.
Marshall WR Aaron Dobson was credited with a drop percentage of zero on 92 targets, according to STATS Inc.
Sounds pretty consistent to me and now has Brady?

Meanwhile Boyce will have to fight Amendola and others for targets in the slot role, I think Dobson is in a better situation for opportunity than Boyce and is more consistent than you give him credit for. Boyce despite being smaller is not much faster than Dobson is either. Boyce was 4.38 in the 40 while Dobson was 4.44 at his pro day, knock that number down a bit and Dobson is still plenty fast for his size that I would not say Boyce is that much faster than Dobson is.

If Boyce earned Welkers targets I could see your point of view but he wont, by the time he might be able to earn that role in the offense Brady will be on his last legs or retired most likely, which makes it hard to say if that slot role will have the same value it has in recent seasons.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Nice work as usual Bloom.

One thing I disagree with you about it this

22. Josh Boyce WR NE 32 Like his game better than Dobson. Faster and more consistent.
>Marshall WR Aaron Dobson was credited with a drop percentage of zero on 92 targets, according to STATS Inc.
Sounds pretty consistent to me and now has Brady?

Meanwhile Boyce will have to fight Amendola and others for targets in the slot role, I think Dobson is in a better situation for opportunity than Boyce and is more consistent than you give him credit for. Boyce despite being smaller is not much faster than Dobson is either. Boyce was 4.38 in the 40 while Dobson was 4.44 at his pro day, knock that number down a bit and Dobson is still plenty fast for his size that I would not say Boyce is that much faster than Dobson is.

If Boyce earned Welkers targets I could see your point of view but he wont, by the time he might be able to earn that role in the offense Brady will be on his last legs or retired most likely, which makes it hard to say if that slot role will have the same value it has in recent seasons.
boyce has an extra gear than dobson does not. whatever the timed speeds are, that shows up on film. Dobson might not have had any drops, but he is not a natural hands catcher all of the time and he will fight the ball sometimes.

 

EBF

Footballguy
I also have Boyce rated ahead of Dobson. I think Boyce is one of the most underrated skill prospects in the draft. I'm not sure where his ADP falls, but I have him rated as a top 12 rookie pick in this class. I don't think it's accurate to pigeon hole him as a slot WR. He played on the outside plenty at TCU. He isn't a tall receiver, but he isn't a small receiver either. At 5'11" 206, he actually has one of the highest weight per height ratios of any WR in the draft class. From a BMI standpoint he is right between Hakeem Nicks and Dez Bryant. In other words, very rocked out for his height. He also has 4.38 speed, a 10'11" broad jump, and a 6.68 three cone time. Those are all elite marks. Speed. Quickness. Strength. He has all of that. This guy is a special athlete on paper and certainly looked the part at the combine, showing some of the most crisp and explosive route running skills of any WR in attendance.

His production wasn't amazing in college, but it was pretty good given that TCU isn't a passing powerhouse. Jeremy Kerley's best two seasons there were 532 and 575 yards, and that was with Andy Dalton at QB. Boyce had 998 yards as a sophomore. His numbers dipped last year in part because TCU was breaking in a new QB, but he still did quite well. He's the school's all-time leader in TD catches even though he only played three seasons. Boyce doesn't look like a first round talent on film, but he's probably worth a 2nd round pick. I think New England got a nice value with him, much like the Rams with Givens last year. I've compared him to a faster hybrid of Deion Branch and David Givens. Bigger and stronger than Branch. Faster and more explosive than both of them.

As for Dobson, I didn't like that pick by New England. Good jump ball skills, but just average playing speed and route running ability. He was only moderately productive in college despite playing four years in a weak conference. Feels a bit like Taylor Price. Another New England WR miss out of the MAC. He'll likely be better than Price, but IMO the Randy comparisons are absurd. He's more like Limas Sweed or Malcom Floyd at best.

 

Mike63

Footballguy
Thanks for the rankings.

Can you please explain why Tavon Austin has been downgraded from 1 to 3 considering that he went 8th overall and in a good situation?

 

suttree

Footballguy
My concern with Michael is his lack of maturity. Curious if he will be able to maintain focus with potentially limited playing time?Can anyone else envision Turbin moving to a FB/HB role? He dropped a lot of passes last year but get him in the flat and he will flatten some DBs.
He might play that role well, but they drafted Ware for it.

 

beerbarron

Footballguy
My concern with Michael is his lack of maturity. Curious if he will be able to maintain focus with potentially limited playing time?Can anyone else envision Turbin moving to a FB/HB role? He dropped a lot of passes last year but get him in the flat and he will flatten some DBs.
He might play that role well, but they drafted Ware for it.
Pete Carrol is all about competition.. Michael, if he stays focused, will be battling for carries.. Plus Lynch's running style doesnt lead to long career and is 27 already.. and Turbin's style is much like lynch's..

 

ShaHBucks

Footballguy
Hell of a article. Im still going through it. Are you really willing to pitch the wagon to Cordarrelle Patterson? I see what everyone else see but I'm not comfordable taking a WR who best skill is running end arounds that high..

 
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