Post Your 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

UPDATE - Draft completed - bold picks are mine

.05 ppr IDP League. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB, 1 DB/DL

1.11 Jonathan Franklin

5.12 Chris Harper

The difference in ADP between these two kind of blows my mind. Even in my leagues with only 1 required RB slot, Franklin goes 1-2 rounds higher on average.

Is the backup RB for the Packers really such a hot commodity?

:X

Last year Lamar Miller went in about the same spot, but he had better tools and a legitimate excuse for falling (shoulder injury). Franklin just looks like a mediocrity.

Not saying Harper is some kind of a lock superstar, but he was actually a higher draft pick. Despite that, I've yet to see a draft where he went higher (or even close).

 

[Whoosah]

UPDATE - Draft completed - bold picks are mine

.05 ppr IDP League. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB, 1 DB/DL

1.01 Giovani Bernard

1.02 Eddie Lacy

1.03 Tavon Austin

1.04 Le'Veon Bell

1.05 Montee Ball

1.06 Deandre Hopkins

1.07 Corarrelle Patterson

1.08 Keenan Allen

1.09 Tyler Eifert

1.10 Andre Ellington

1.11 Jonathan Franklin

1.12 Marcus Lattimore

Interesting to see Ellington that high. I liked him before the draft and took him middle of the second in one of my leagues. Talent-wise, I think he's as good as any rookie other than a healthy Lattimore.

The guy who drafted him was in a hurry for a trip out of the country so he probably did not do 100% research and just made a reactive pick.

 

[Whoosah]

UPDATE - Draft completed - bold picks are mine

.05 ppr IDP League. Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB, 1 DB/DL

1.11 Jonathan Franklin

5.12 Chris Harper

The difference in ADP between these two kind of blows my mind. Even in my leagues with only 1 required RB slot, Franklin goes 1-2 rounds higher on average.

Is the backup RB for the Packers really such a hot commodity?



Last year Lamar Miller went in about the same spot, but he had better tools and a legitimate excuse for falling (shoulder injury). Franklin just looks like a mediocrity.

Not saying Harper is some kind of a lock superstar, but he was actually a higher draft pick. Despite that, I've yet to see a draft where he went higher (or even close).

I think some think Lacy's injury will give Franklin some action and might overtake Lacy. In any case, Harper is going under the radar because of the crowded depth at WR in Seattle and a lot of people want the immediate player vs the long term project like Harper. I do like the fact that he fell to me. Ideally I am going to put him on my practice squad for the upcoming season.

 

[EBF]

I think some think Lacy's injury will give Franklin some action and might overtake Lacy. In any case, Harper is going under the radar because of the crowded depth at WR in Seattle and a lot of people want the immediate player vs the long term project like Harper. I do like the fact that he fell to me. Ideally I am going to put him on my practice squad for the upcoming season.

In general, I think it's interesting that the consensus has inconsistent logic in terms of liking/disliking certain players. Harper/Franklin is a great example. I would argue that in a balanced format Harper should be valued similarly on the basis of his draft slot/potential. However, Franklin always goes higher in my rookie drafts. Without exception. Usually by a wide margin. I would chalk most of that up to the fact that he plays a prestige position and that he was touted by some as a 2nd round talent prior to the NFL draft.

I think the latter point is key. When we hear for months that X player is supposed to go in Y round, it makes an impression that lingers even if the player goes elsewhere in the actual NFL draft. So while Franklin was just a late 4th round pick, to many people he's "really" a 2nd round talent even though he didn't actually go there. A similar thing is going on with Da'Rick Rogers and Matt Barkley. Both of them go higher in rookie drafts than you would expect given their NFL draft position.

You can call it the Jonathan Dwyer phenomenon. Dwyer was a 6th round pick, but went top 15 in a lot of rookie drafts under the belief that he was "really" a 1st-2nd round talent. I was one of the suckers who took the bait in that case. I'm not sure that it matters where a guy was "supposed" to be drafted. In the history books, you're picked in the round you're picked in, and that's that. If you weren't picked in the 1st round, you aren't "really" a 1st round pick, no matter what the pundits said about you in March.

Guys like Chris Johnson, Doug Martin, and Demaryius Thomas were probably a little underrated by FF owners as rookies because of this phenomenon. They weren't necessarily "supposed to be" first round picks and so they generally had a little less hype than they might have otherwise had in their identical draft slots. On the other hand, it's pretty clear that the hive mind gets it right sometimes. Look at last year's draft. Lamar Miller was a 4th round pick who was "supposed to be" a 2nd-3rd rounder. AJ Jenkins was a 1st round pick who was "supposed to be" a 2nd-3rd rounder. Despite the fact that Jenkins was picked a lot higher by the NFL, Miller went higher in most of my rookie drafts. It's too early to reach a verdict on either of those two, but as of right now Miller looks like the better talent.

I don't really know what to make of all this, but in cases where you have a guy whose FF draft slot doesn't quite jive with his NFL draft slot, I think it's wise to ask yourself if there's good reason for it. With guys like Lamar Miller and Marcus Lattimore, it's pretty likely that injury pushed them down lower than they would've gone if healthy. With a guy like Cecil Shorts or Vincent Jackson, it's likely that the small school factor depressed their draft spot. Those players have excuses for falling.

A guy like Franklin is more of a dubious case. He didn't play at a small school, he isn't dealing with any injury/durability stuff, he isn't switching positions, and there are no character concerns to speak of. He has no excuse for being a late-ish pick, apart from the most obvious one: the evaluators just weren't that impressed with him. That doesn't mean they aren't wrong, but as of right now it sure looks like he's a player whose draft hype and perceived value have been inflated.

I'm not 100% sure who will win the Green Bay RB battle, but it seems pretty clear that Lacy and Franklin can't both justify their ADP. In all likelihood, one of them will clearly outshine the other and render him mostly irrelevant.

 

[Whoosah]

I think some think Lacy's injury will give Franklin some action and might overtake Lacy. In any case, Harper is going under the radar because of the crowded depth at WR in Seattle and a lot of people want the immediate player vs the long term project like Harper. I do like the fact that he fell to me. Ideally I am going to put him on my practice squad for the upcoming season.

In general, I think it's interesting that the consensus has inconsistent logic in terms of liking/disliking certain players. Harper/Franklin is a great example. I would argue that in a balanced format Harper should be valued similarly on the basis of his draft slot/potential. However, Franklin always goes higher in my rookie drafts. Without exception. Usually by a wide margin. I would chalk most of that up to the fact that he plays a prestige position and that he was touted by some as a 2nd round talent prior to the NFL draft.

I think the latter point is key. When we hear for months that X player is supposed to go in Y round, it makes an impression that lingers even if the player goes elsewhere in the actual NFL draft. So while Franklin was just a late 4th round pick, to many people he's "really" a 2nd round talent even though he didn't actually go there. A similar thing is going on with Da'Rick Rogers and Matt Barkley. Both of them go higher in rookie drafts than you would expect given their NFL draft position.

You can call it the Jonathan Dwyer phenomenon. Dwyer was a 6th round pick, but went top 15 in a lot of rookie drafts under the belief that he was "really" a 1st-2nd round talent. I was one of the suckers who took the bait in that case. I'm not sure that it matters where a guy was "supposed" to be drafted. In the history books, you're picked in the round you're picked in, and that's that. If you weren't picked in the 1st round, you aren't "really" a 1st round pick, no matter what the pundits said about you in March.

Guys like Chris Johnson, Doug Martin, and Demaryius Thomas were probably a little underrated by FF owners as rookies because of this phenomenon. They weren't necessarily "supposed to be" first round picks and so they generally had a little less hype than they might have otherwise had in their identical draft slots. On the other hand, it's pretty clear that the hive mind gets it right sometimes. Look at last year's draft. Lamar Miller was a 4th round pick who was "supposed to be" a 2nd-3rd rounder. AJ Jenkins was a 1st round pick who was "supposed to be" a 2nd-3rd rounder. Despite the fact that Jenkins was picked a lot higher by the NFL, Miller went higher in most of my rookie drafts. It's too early to reach a verdict on either of those two, but as of right now Miller looks like the better talent.

I don't really know what to make of all this, but in cases where you have a guy whose FF draft slot doesn't quite jive with his NFL draft slot, I think it's wise to ask yourself if there's good reason for it. With guys like Lamar Miller and Marcus Lattimore, it's pretty likely that injury pushed them down lower than they would've gone if healthy. With a guy like Cecil Shorts or Vincent Jackson, it's likely that the small school factor depressed their draft spot. Those players have excuses for falling.

A guy like Franklin is more of a dubious case. He didn't play at a small school, he isn't dealing with any injury/durability stuff, he isn't switching positions, and there are no character concerns to speak of. He has no excuse for being a late-ish pick, apart from the most obvious one: the evaluators just weren't that impressed with him. That doesn't mean they aren't wrong, but as of right now it sure looks like he's a player whose draft hype and perceived value have been inflated.

I'm not 100% sure who will win the Green Bay RB battle, but it seems pretty clear that Lacy and Franklin can't both justify their ADP. In all likelihood, one of them will clearly outshine the other and render him mostly irrelevant.

Another thing to keep in mind is that in my league (which I am sure is similar to others) RBs go at a premium so guys like Franklin who get a lot of media coverage of being a potential starter on the Packers could attract people to take them earlier as well

 

[moderated]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

 

[Dez]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Morris, Foster, Ivory, Ballard are 4 guys off the top of my head that disagree.

 

[moderated]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Morris, Foster, Ivory, Ballard are 4 guys off the top of my head that disagree.

You can cherry pick and make any argument, exceptions happen, but it's way to rare to invest a high 2nd in.

Also Ballard and Morris have only had one season, they could easily end up busting, and Ivory has done nothing so far. Foster is really the only legit guy from that list who is stable.

 

[cdubz]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Morris, Foster, Ivory, Ballard are 4 guys off the top of my head that disagree.

You can cherry pick and make any argument, exceptions happen, but it's way to rare to invest a high 2nd in.

Also Ballard and Morris have only had one season, they could easily end up busting, and Ivory has done nothing so far. Foster is really the only legit guy from that list who is stable.

Foster is a little more than "stable". If every 10th 2nd rounder turned into Foster, I would be ecstatic. You made the claim that 5th round RBs are a horrible gamble in the 2nd round, someone demonstrated that very serviceable starters have been 5th rd or lower picks in recent years.

Who is going in the 2nd round of your rookie drafts that you are willing to dismiss starting NFL RBs?

 

[EBF]

The hit on rate on fifth rounders is something like 5%. Stacy has good short term opportunity, but he seems like a pretty average player. The type who could be swept aside by just about any free agent signing or draft pick a year from now. And that's if he beats out Pead and Richardson.

Foster has been a big success, but what percentage of free agent RB pickups work out that well? Most of them don't even make a team, let alone become starters.

The same applies to Morris. He was phenomenal last year. Doesn't change the fact that he's a total aberration. Here are sixth round RBs from the past ten drafts:

Alfred Morris

Cyrus Gray

Dan Herron

Terrance Ganaway

Evan Royster

Jordan Todman

Allen Bradford

Anthony Dixon

Deji Karim

Jonathan Dwyer

James Starks

Charles Scott

Cedric Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmele

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Thomas Clayton

Justise Hairston

Wali Lundy

Cedric Houston

DeAndra Cobb

Brock Forsey

That's a whole lot of crap there. So yea, once in a blue moon you will find a guy like Morris or Foster on the scrap heap, but the odds definitely don't justify spending a high pick on a late round or UDFA back. These are the kind of guys that you should grab on the cheap hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

 

[cdubz]

The hit on rate on fifth rounders is something like 5%. Stacy has good short term opportunity, but he seems like a pretty average player. The type who could be swept aside by just about any free agent signing or draft pick a year from now. And that's if he beats out Pead and Richardson.

Foster has been a big success, but what percentage of free agent RB pickups work out that well? Most of them don't even make a team, let alone become starters.

The same applies to Morris. He was phenomenal last year. Doesn't change the fact that he's a total aberration. Here are sixth round RBs from the past ten drafts:

Alfred Morris

Cyrus Gray

Dan Herron

Terrance Ganaway

Evan Royster

Jordan Todman

Allen Bradford

Anthony Dixon

Deji Karim

Jonathan Dwyer

James Starks

Charles Scott

Cedric Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmele

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Thomas Clayton

Justise Hairston

Wali Lundy

Cedric Houston

DeAndra Cobb

Brock Forsey

That's a whole lot of crap there. So yea, once in a blue moon you will find a guy like Morris or Foster on the scrap heap, but the odds definitely don't justify spending a high pick on a late round or UDFA back. These are the kind of guys that you should grab on the cheap hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

I can appreciate that the raw hit rate is low, but this ignores all of the other inputs we have data on. Such as Rams backfield seeming wide open and Stacy having an elite agility score. When you look at his physical measurables http://mockdraftable.com/player/4246/ Doug Martin is the closest comparable recently. I can understand the cards being stacked against Stacy, but do you really think the chance of him winning the starting job is only 5%?

Depending on your scoring settings and roster sizes, I could see a 15%-20% chance of winning the starting job being worth a 2nd rounder.

 

[moderated]

The hit on rate on fifth rounders is something like 5%. Stacy has good short term opportunity, but he seems like a pretty average player. The type who could be swept aside by just about any free agent signing or draft pick a year from now. And that's if he beats out Pead and Richardson.

Foster has been a big success, but what percentage of free agent RB pickups work out that well? Most of them don't even make a team, let alone become starters.

The same applies to Morris. He was phenomenal last year. Doesn't change the fact that he's a total aberration. Here are sixth round RBs from the past ten drafts:

Alfred Morris

Cyrus Gray

Dan Herron

Terrance Ganaway

Evan Royster

Jordan Todman

Allen Bradford

Anthony Dixon

Deji Karim

Jonathan Dwyer

James Starks

Charles Scott

Cedric Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmele

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Thomas Clayton

Justise Hairston

Wali Lundy

Cedric Houston

DeAndra Cobb

Brock Forsey

That's a whole lot of crap there. So yea, once in a blue moon you will find a guy like Morris or Foster on the scrap heap, but the odds definitely don't justify spending a high pick on a late round or UDFA back. These are the kind of guys that you should grab on the cheap hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

I can appreciate that the raw hit rate is low, but this ignores all of the other inputs we have data on. Such as Rams backfield seeming wide open and Stacy having an elite agility score. When you look at his physical measurables http://mockdraftable.com/player/4246/ Doug Martin is the closest comparable recently. I can understand the cards being stacked against Stacy, but do you really think the chance of him winning the starting job is only 5%?

Depending on your scoring settings and roster sizes, I could see a 15%-20% chance of winning the starting job being worth a 2nd rounder.

I'd say the odds of Stacy being a usable FF player for any extended period (over one year) are about 2-4%. GL wasting the 2nd round pick on him.

 

[Catbird]

The reason for Franklin, in particular, going early is that only Lacy apparently stands between him and a good starting job (in a passing offense where he is likely the better pass receiver). And a huge number of people out there really dislike Lacy or think poorly of him. I think most of that comes from a post-injury team day where he performed poorly (apparently being badly out of shape) and the rumor that his toe was fused in surgery where that procedure typically costs a player much of his explosiveness. Lacy's fall in the draft seemingly affirmed what many were feeling about him being the #1 fantasy rookie - that he wasn't. So if you are left thinking Lacy is going to do nothing, Franklin looks like he's in a great circumstance. If there are one or two guys in your league who think this way, Franklin is going to be picked very early.

My guess is very few Franklin owners are going to look back very happily at that selection.

 

[Silverbacks]

.

 

[jmo87usc]

The hit on rate on fifth rounders is something like 5%. Stacy has good short term opportunity, but he seems like a pretty average player. The type who could be swept aside by just about any free agent signing or draft pick a year from now. And that's if he beats out Pead and Richardson.

Foster has been a big success, but what percentage of free agent RB pickups work out that well? Most of them don't even make a team, let alone become starters.

The same applies to Morris. He was phenomenal last year. Doesn't change the fact that he's a total aberration. Here are sixth round RBs from the past ten drafts:

Alfred Morris

Cyrus Gray

Dan Herron

Terrance Ganaway

Evan Royster

Jordan Todman

Allen Bradford

Anthony Dixon

Deji Karim

Jonathan Dwyer

James Starks

Charles Scott

Cedric Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmele

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Thomas Clayton

Justise Hairston

Wali Lundy

Cedric Houston

DeAndra Cobb

Brock Forsey

That's a whole lot of crap there. So yea, once in a blue moon you will find a guy like Morris or Foster on the scrap heap, but the odds definitely don't justify spending a high pick on a late round or UDFA back. These are the kind of guys that you should grab on the cheap hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

I can appreciate that the raw hit rate is low, but this ignores all of the other inputs we have data on. Such as Rams backfield seeming wide open and Stacy having an elite agility score. When you look at his physical measurables http://mockdraftable.com/player/4246/ Doug Martin is the closest comparable recently. I can understand the cards being stacked against Stacy, but do you really think the chance of him winning the starting job is only 5%?

Depending on your scoring settings and roster sizes, I could see a 15%-20% chance of winning the starting job being worth a 2nd rounder.

I'd say the odds of Stacy being a usable FF player for any extended period (over one year) are about 2-4%. GL wasting the 2nd round pick on him.

I own Pead and Richardson and planned on taking Stacy, but he went at 18 and I had the 20 pick. I hoped not to lose him but kind of expected to. Stacy was high on a lot of fantasy guys boards prior to the NFL draft as an under the radar sleeper guy. Getting drafted by St Louis only increased his value since there is no clear cut option there right now.

The thing to look at is what else are you going to get in the mid second round of a rookie draft? 6th best wr? 3rd best TE or QB? or 6th best RB who has a decent chance of starting?(Stacy) I don't think it's crazy to take a shot on Stacy there. Especially if the team has a need at RB. In my experience, it all becomes way more of a crapshoot toward the middle of the 2nd round anyway.

 

[squistion]

The hit on rate on fifth rounders is something like 5%. Stacy has good short term opportunity, but he seems like a pretty average player. The type who could be swept aside by just about any free agent signing or draft pick a year from now. And that's if he beats out Pead and Richardson.

Foster has been a big success, but what percentage of free agent RB pickups work out that well? Most of them don't even make a team, let alone become starters.

The same applies to Morris. He was phenomenal last year. Doesn't change the fact that he's a total aberration. Here are sixth round RBs from the past ten drafts:

Alfred Morris

Cyrus Gray

Dan Herron

Terrance Ganaway

Evan Royster

Jordan Todman

Allen Bradford

Anthony Dixon

Deji Karim

Jonathan Dwyer

James Starks

Charles Scott

Cedric Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmele

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Thomas Clayton

Justise Hairston

Wali Lundy

Cedric Houston

DeAndra Cobb

Brock Forsey

That's a whole lot of crap there. So yea, once in a blue moon you will find a guy like Morris or Foster on the scrap heap, but the odds definitely don't justify spending a high pick on a late round or UDFA back. These are the kind of guys that you should grab on the cheap hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

I can appreciate that the raw hit rate is low, but this ignores all of the other inputs we have data on. Such as Rams backfield seeming wide open and Stacy having an elite agility score. When you look at his physical measurables http://mockdraftable.com/player/4246/ Doug Martin is the closest comparable recently. I can understand the cards being stacked against Stacy, but do you really think the chance of him winning the starting job is only 5%?Depending on your scoring settings and roster sizes, I could see a 15%-20% chance of winning the starting job being worth a 2nd rounder.

Exactly. The 5% figure is just talking probabilities irrespective of any context, and it really doesn't mean that much if you are viewing the merits of an individual player and actually take the time to research their unique situation and background.

Yes, if you know nothing absolutely nothing else about a player except what round they are taken in, (and are too lazy to look any further) then those are the recent historic odds. The problem is, that ignores context and the better fantasy owners are willing to take the time and effort to look at individual circumstances. That is how we land players like Morris, instead of just cavalierly dismissing every 6th round pick with the idea of "Why bother since I will be right 95% of the time anyway."

This is the same logic of people who never work the waiver wire on a weekly basis during the season, saying the percentage hit rate is so poor that it isn't worth their time to do it at all. Yes, they are right in the respect that very few waiver wire picks pan out - but those of us who also like to play general manager (instead of just draft scout) quite often are rewarded with a player that helps us win a championship, because the players that defy the odds are worth spending the time looking for and trying to acquire.

 

[cstu]

The hit on rate on fifth rounders is something like 5%. Stacy has good short term opportunity, but he seems like a pretty average player. The type who could be swept aside by just about any free agent signing or draft pick a year from now. And that's if he beats out Pead and Richardson.

Foster has been a big success, but what percentage of free agent RB pickups work out that well? Most of them don't even make a team, let alone become starters.

The same applies to Morris. He was phenomenal last year. Doesn't change the fact that he's a total aberration. Here are sixth round RBs from the past ten drafts:

Alfred Morris

Cyrus Gray

Dan Herron

Terrance Ganaway

Evan Royster

Jordan Todman

Allen Bradford

Anthony Dixon

Deji Karim

Jonathan Dwyer

James Starks

Charles Scott

Cedric Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmele

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Thomas Clayton

Justise Hairston

Wali Lundy

Cedric Houston

DeAndra Cobb

Brock Forsey

That's a whole lot of crap there. So yea, once in a blue moon you will find a guy like Morris or Foster on the scrap heap, but the odds definitely don't justify spending a high pick on a late round or UDFA back. These are the kind of guys that you should grab on the cheap hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

I can appreciate that the raw hit rate is low, but this ignores all of the other inputs we have data on. Such as Rams backfield seeming wide open and Stacy having an elite agility score. When you look at his physical measurables http://mockdraftable.com/player/4246/ Doug Martin is the closest comparable recently. I can understand the cards being stacked against Stacy, but do you really think the chance of him winning the starting job is only 5%?

Depending on your scoring settings and roster sizes, I could see a 15%-20% chance of winning the starting job being worth a 2nd rounder.

I'd say the odds of Stacy being a usable FF player for any extended period (over one year) are about 2-4%. GL wasting the 2nd round pick on him.

I own Pead and Richardson and planned on taking Stacy, but he went at 18 and I had the 20 pick. I hoped not to lose him but kind of expected to. Stacy was high on a lot of fantasy guys boards prior to the NFL draft as an under the radar sleeper guy. Getting drafted by St Louis only increased his value since there is no clear cut option there right now.

The thing to look at is what else are you going to get in the mid second round of a rookie draft? 6th best wr? 3rd best TE or QB? or 6th best RB who has a decent chance of starting?(Stacy) I don't think it's crazy to take a shot on Stacy there. Especially if the team has a need at RB. In my experience, it all becomes way more of a crapshoot toward the middle of the 2nd round anyway.

In leagues I've seen Stacy is going before the top QB and the 2nd TE.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Why all the concern with Stacy? No risk in spending a 2nd round rookie pick on him. 2nd rd rookie picks aren't worth #### first off and in this draft class they're worth even less.

 

[JustinHawkins]

I have had over a dozen 12 team PPR dynasty league rookie drafts, 1 pt per reception, league starts 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1 flex at rb/wr/te

Here are the results (free agents names spelled out in full):

League 1

1.1 Bernard

1.2 Austin

1.3 Patterson

1.4 Bell

1.5 Hopkins

1.6 Lacy

1.7 Ball

1.8 Lattimore

1.9 Franklin

1.10 Hunter

1.11 Allen

1.12 Michael

2.1 Stacy

2.2 Eifert

2.3 Rogers

2.4 Wheaton

2.5 Dobson

2.6 Woods

2.7 Jordan Cameron

2.8 Randle

2.9 Boyce

2.10 Gillislee

2.11 Williams (Dal WR)

2.12 Joseph Morgan

3.1 Manuel

3.2 Patton

3.3 Ertz

3.4 Kelce

3.5 Taylor

3.6 Bailey

3.7 Ellington

3.8 Brandon Myers

3.9 Danny Woodhead

3.10 Davis

3.11 Williams (IND RB)

3.12 Robinson

League 4

1.1 Ball

1.2 Austin

1.3 Bernard

1.4 Bell

1.5 Patterson

1.6 Hopkins

1.7 Lacy

1.8 Lattimore

1.9 Hunter

1.10 Allen

1.11 Stacy

1.12 Eifert

2.1 Wheaton

2.2 Woods

2.3 Jordan Cameron

2.4 Michael

2.5 Manuel

2.6 Franklin

2.7 Ertz

2.8 Rogers

2.9 Dobson

2.10 Randle

2.11 Kelce

2.12 Gilislee

3.1 Williams (Dal WR)

3.2 Taylor

3.3 Ellington

3.4 Smith

3.5 Bailey

3.6 Murray

3.7 Davis

3.8 Barkley

3.9 Williams (IND RB)

3.10 Swope

3.11 Patton

3.12 Barner

League 5

1.1 Austin

1.2 Bernard

1.3 Lacy

1.4 Hopkins

1.5 Patterson

1.6 Bell

1.7 Ball

1.8 Chris Ivory

1.9 Franklin

1.10 Eifert

1.11 Hunter

1.12 Lattimore

2.1 Stacy

2.2 Allen

2.3 Michael

2.4 Dobson

2.5 Wheaton

2.6 Woods

2.7 Rogers

2.8 Harper

2.9 Cameron Jordan

2.10 Williams (Dal WR)

2.11 Ertz

2.12 Bailey

3.1 Manuel

3.2 Ellington

3.3 Gillislee

3.4 Randle

3.5 Boyce

3.6 Escobar

3.7 Kelce

3.8 Robinson

3.9 Patton

3.10 Taylor

3.11 Williams (IND RB)

3.12 Mellete

League 6

1.1 Austin

1.2 Bernard

1.3 Ball

1.4 Lacy

1.5 Patterson

1.6 Hopkins

1.7 Bell

1.8 Franklin

1.9 Lattimore

1.10 Allen

1.11 Michael

1.12 Eifert

2.1 Hunter

2.2 Stacy

2.3 Woods

2.4 Dobson

2.5 Randle

2.6 Manuel

2.7 Wheaton

2.8 Ertz

2.9 Rogers

2.10 Williams (Dal WR)

2.11 Gillislee

2.12 Boyce

3.1 Robinson

3.2 Fuller

3.3 Patton

3.4 Kelce

3.5 Bailey

3.6 Ellington

3.7 Smith

3.8 Escobar

3.9 Taylor

3.10 Murray

3.11 Williams (IND RB)

3.12 Wilson

League 8

1.1 Austin

1.2 Lacy

1.3 Bernard

1.4 Patterson

1.5 Hopkins

1.6 Ball

1.7 Bell

1.8 Chris Ivory

1.9 Allen

1.10 Eifert

1.11 Lattimore

1.12 Franklin

2.1 Stacy

2.2 Hunter

2.3 Wheaton

2.4 Dobson

2.5 Michael

2.6 Manuel

2.7 Rogers

2.8 Woods

2.9 Williams (Dal WR)

2.10 Bailey

2.11 Murray

2.12 Ertz

3.1 Jordan Cameron

3.2 Kelce

3.3 Patton

3.4 Randle

3.5 Smith

3.6 Robinson

3.7 Carson Palmer

3.8 Matt Flynn

3.9 Gillislee

3.10 Helu

3.11 Boyce

3.12 Tayor

League 9

1.1 Bernard

1.2 Austin

1.3 Ball

1.4 Patterson

1.5 Bell

1.6 Lacy

1.7 Hopkins

1.8 Eifert

1.9 Lattimore

1.10 Hunter

1.11 Allen

1.12 Franklin

2.1 Stacy

2.2 Woods

2.3 Ertz

2.4 Manuel

2.5 Michael

2.6 Wheaton

2.7 Jordan Cameron

2.8 Leonard Hankerson

2.9 Taylor

2.10 Dobson

2.11 Rogers

2.12 Randle

3.1 Davis

3.2 Donny Avery

3.3 Smith

3.4 Williams (Dal WR)

3.5 Gillislee

3.6 Patton

3.7 Kelce

3.8 Ellington

3.9 Murray

3.10 Bailey

3.11 Boyce

3.12 Johnson

League 10

1.1 Bernard

1.2 Austin

1.3 Bell

1.4 Patterson

1.5 Ball

1.6 Hopkins

1.7 Lacy

1.8 Lattimore

1.9 Eifert

1.10 Franklin

1.11 Hunter

1.12 Allen

2.1 Dobson

2.2 Wheaton

2.3 Woods

2.4 Michael

2.5 Stacy

2.6 Ertz

2.7 Williams (Dal WR)

2.8 Rogers

2.9 Kelce

2.10 Smith

2.11 Manuel

2.12 Bailey

3.1 Patton

3.2 Ellington

3.3 Randle

3.4 Carson Palmer

3.5 Murray

3.6 Robinson

3.7 Gillislee

3.8 Davis

3.9 Williams (IND RB)

3.10 Wilson

3.11 Goodwin

3.12 Taylor

League 12

1.1 Bernard

1.2 Austin

1.3 Lacy

1.4 Patterson

1.5 Bell

1.6 Ball

1.7 Franklin

1.8 Hopkins

1.9 Allen

1.10 Lattimore

1.11 Wheaton

1.12 Hunter

2.1 Eifert

2.2 Michael

2.3 Woods

2.4 Stacy

2.5 Dobson

2.6 Rogers

2.7 Boyce

2.8 Ertz

2.9 Williams (Dal WR)

2.10 Patton

2.11 Kelce

2.12 Taylor

3.1 Jordan Cameron

3.2 Robinson

3.3 Randle

3.4 Manuel

3.5 Smith

3.6 Murray

3.7 Bailey

3.8 Bears D

3.9 Davis

3.10 Williams (IND RB)

3.11 Ellington

3.12 Barkley

League 13

1.1 Austin

1.2 Bernard

1.3 Lacy

1.4 Patterson

1.5 Bell

1.6 Ball

1.7 Hopkins

1.8 Allen

1.9 Hunter

1.10 Lattimore

1.11 Woods

1.12 Eifert

2.1 Franklin

2.2 Dobson

2.3 Wheaton

2.4 Bailey

2.5 Stacy

2.6 Michael

2.7 Williams (Dal WR)

2.8 Rogers

2.9 Smith

2.10 Patton

2.11 Randle

2.12 Ertz

3.1 Cameron Jordan

3.2 Kelce

3.3 Manuel

3.4 Ellington

3.5 Taylor

3.6 Marcel Reece

3.7 Fuller

3.8 Boyce

3.9 Wilson

3.10 Escobar

3.11 Robinson

3.12 Gillislee

League 14

1.1 Bernard

1.2 Bell

1.3 Austin

1.4 Patterson

1.5 Lacy

1.6 Hopkins

1.7 Hunter

1.8 Ball

1.9 Allen

1.10 Lattimore

1.11 Eifert

1.12 Woods

2.1 Stacy

2.2 Franklin

2.3 Wheaton

2.4 Michael

2.5 Bailey

2.6 Dobson

2.7 Manuel

2.8 Ertz

2.9 Smith

2.10 Randle

2.11 Rogers

2.12 Davis

3.1 Kelce

3.2 Williams (Dal WR)

3.3 Ellington

3.4 Robinson

3.5 Gillislee

3.6 Patton

3.7 Boyce

3.8 Murray

3.9 Escobar

3.10 Joseph Morgan

3.11 Taylor

3.12 Reed

League 15

1.1 Bernard

1.2 Austin

1.3 Lacy

1.4 Patterson

1.5 Ball

1.6 Bell

1.7 Hopkins

1.8 Allen

1.9 Wheaton

1.10 Hunter

1.11 Franklin

1.12 Eifert

2.1 Lattimore

2.2 Woods

2.3 Bailey

2.4 Stacy

2.5 Rogers

2.6 Michael

2.7 Patton

2.8 Dobson

2.9 Ertz

2.10 Jordan Cameron

2.11 Williams (Dal WR)

2.12 Randle

3.1 Harper

3.2 Manuel

3.3 Kelce

3.4 Boyce

3.5 Smith

3.6 Gillislee

3.7 Swope

3.8 James Casey

3.9 Tommy Streeter

3.10 Ellington

3.11 Goodwin

3.12 Taylor

Whew, that took a while to type out! Hopefully this is useful to someone!

 

[KCitons]

Now that's a list.

 

[cstu]

Why all the concern with Stacy? No risk in spending a 2nd round rookie pick on him. 2nd rd rookie picks aren't worth #### first off and in this draft class they're worth even less.

He's going high 2nd and I don't think the picks are worth ####. I think it's a poor gamble when there are players far more likely to produce.

 

[joey]

:whitestarinbluecircle:

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

The hit on rate on fifth rounders is something like 5%. Stacy has good short term opportunity, but he seems like a pretty average player. The type who could be swept aside by just about any free agent signing or draft pick a year from now. And that's if he beats out Pead and Richardson.

Foster has been a big success, but what percentage of free agent RB pickups work out that well? Most of them don't even make a team, let alone become starters.

The same applies to Morris. He was phenomenal last year. Doesn't change the fact that he's a total aberration. Here are sixth round RBs from the past ten drafts:

Alfred Morris

Cyrus Gray

Dan Herron

Terrance Ganaway

Evan Royster

Jordan Todman

Allen Bradford

Anthony Dixon

Deji Karim

Jonathan Dwyer

James Starks

Charles Scott

Cedric Peerman

Aaron Brown

James Davis

Bernard Scott

Thomas Brown

Jalen Parmele

Xavier Omon

Mike Hart

Thomas Clayton

Justise Hairston

Wali Lundy

Cedric Houston

DeAndra Cobb

Brock Forsey

That's a whole lot of crap there. So yea, once in a blue moon you will find a guy like Morris or Foster on the scrap heap, but the odds definitely don't justify spending a high pick on a late round or UDFA back. These are the kind of guys that you should grab on the cheap hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

I can appreciate that the raw hit rate is low, but this ignores all of the other inputs we have data on. Such as Rams backfield seeming wide open and Stacy having an elite agility score. When you look at his physical measurables http://mockdraftable.com/player/4246/ Doug Martin is the closest comparable recently. I can understand the cards being stacked against Stacy, but do you really think the chance of him winning the starting job is only 5%?Depending on your scoring settings and roster sizes, I could see a 15%-20% chance of winning the starting job being worth a 2nd rounder.

Exactly. The 5% figure is just talking probabilities irrespective of any context, and it really doesn't mean that much if you are viewing the merits of an individual player and actually take the time to research their unique situation and background.

Yes, if you know nothing absolutely nothing else about a player except what round they are taken in, (and are too lazy to look any further) then those are the recent historic odds. The problem is, that ignores context and the better fantasy owners are willing to take the time and effort to look at individual circumstances. That is how we land players like Morris, instead of just cavalierly dismissing every 6th round pick with the idea of "Why bother since I will be right 95% of the time anyway."

This is the same logic of people who never work the waiver wire on a weekly basis during the season, saying the percentage hit rate is so poor that it isn't worth their time to do it at all. Yes, they are right in the respect that very few waiver wire picks pan out - but those of us who also like to play general manager (instead of just draft scout) quite often are rewarded with a player that helps us win a championship, because the players that defy the odds are worth spending the time looking for and trying to acquire.

Even if you take out all the players from that list that you were certain weren't going to make it in the NFL, the hit rate on the remaining group is still going to be low. I think the point being made is not that you shouldn't take a chance on Stacey, but that you shouldn't take a chance on him before the top QB or two, top TE or two, or even several other WRs, all of whom are likely to be better investments.

It's all risk/reward though. If you say to yourself, "RB is so much more valuable to me that I'd rather take a 10% chance to have a starting RB pan out, than a 40% chance to have a starting QB work out." then go for it. But make that decision consciously based on your GM style, and don't fire that pick blindly without realizing what opportunity you are giving up to take that chance.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Morris, Foster, Ivory, Ballard are 4 guys off the top of my head that disagree.

I will surely grant you Foster and Morris, but Ivory has been in the league three years and not distinguished himself (I'm hopeful he stays healthy and plays better on his new team this year) and Ballard seems very average, like the kind of guy a team plugs in until they get a chance to draft someone better. From a fantasy perspective those guys are great bye week plug-ins for a year or maybe two, but then they're relegated to NFL backup duty once the team is able to focus on upgrading the position. Those are the guys I love to trade away while the value is high.

 

[Black]

Now that's a list.

We should make a copy of that list....and put it in a safe place.

Looks like the top 10-12 are pretty locked in, sort of in 3 tiers?

1-5 Austin / Bernard / Patterson / Bell / Ball

6- 9 Hopkins / Lacy / Allen / Lattimore

10- 14 Franklin / Wheaton / Hunter / Woods / Eifert

 

[humpback]

Even if you take out all the players from that list that you were certain weren't going to make it in the NFL, the hit rate on the remaining group is still going to be low. I think the point being made is not that you shouldn't take a chance on Stacey, but that you shouldn't take a chance on him before the top QB or two, top TE or two, or even several other WRs, all of whom are likely to be better investments.

It's all risk/reward though. If you say to yourself, "RB is so much more valuable to me that I'd rather take a 10% chance to have a starting RB pan out, than a 40% chance to have a starting QB work out." then go for it. But make that decision consciously based on your GM style, and don't fire that pick blindly without realizing what opportunity you are giving up to take that chance.

I agree for the most part, but it also comes down to your definitions of "better investments" and "pan out". Stacy probably has a greater chance at being irrelevant than the #2 QB or TE (whoever they might be), but if those guys end up being #20ish ranked players at their position, they really aren't worth much in most leagues. That's the thing with the RB position- people generally accept lower odds because the upside is higher- if Stacy becomes the starter, he almost by default will be a top 25 RB, and those are much more valuable than back-up QBs or TEs. Of course, if you think the upside of the #2 QB or TE in this draft is top 10, that goes out the window.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Morris, Foster, Ivory, Ballard are 4 guys off the top of my head that disagree.

I will surely grant you Foster and Morris, but Ivory has been in the league three years and not distinguished himself (I'm hopeful he stays healthy and plays better on his new team this year) and Ballard seems very average, like the kind of guy a team plugs in until they get a chance to draft someone better. From a fantasy perspective those guys are great bye week plug-ins for a year or maybe two, but then they're relegated to NFL backup duty once the team is able to focus on upgrading the position. Those are the guys I love to trade away while the value is high.

You hope Ivory plays better? Seems like a strange statement.

 

[EBF]

I'd take a shot on a guy like Franklin, Stacy, Taylor, or Murray. The price would have to be right though. Franklin as a late first rounder and Stacy as an early second rounder don't really do much for me. I kind of like Stacy's short term outlook because of the opportunity and I could see him having a Vick Ballard-like rookie year, but the long term upside seems suspect and he's going high enough in rookie drafts that you're almost certainly passing up superior talents at QB/WR/TE to take him.

The only rookie RBs I've drafted in any leagues this year are Michael, Knile, Taylor, and Ware. With those players, I think situational factors and general skepticism have driven their ADP down to a point where the odds of success justify the price of entry. I think that's the name of the game. The upside of landing a starting RB is pretty appealing, but you've got to pay a price that makes sense.

Also keep in mind that some of the recent late round/UDFA success stories like Foster, Pierre Thomas, D Richardson, and Morris probably weren't even drafted in a lot of early rookie drafts. You didn't even have to invest a pick in those guys. You could have grabbed them for free off the waiver wire once they started to make waves in the preseason. With the really low probability late picks and UDFA pickups, a wait-and-see approach isn't a bad way to go.

 

[cstu]

Now that's a list.

We should make a copy of that list....and put it in a safe place. Looks like the top 10-12 are pretty locked in, sort of in 3 tiers? 1-5 Austin / Bernard / Patterson / Bell / Ball 6- 9 Hopkins / Lacy / Allen / Lattimore 10- 14 Franklin / Wheaton / Hunter / Woods / Eifert

Pick Range ConsensusBernard 1,3,2,2,3,1,1,1,2,1 1-2 1Austin 2,2,1,1,1,2,2,2,1,3 1-3 2Patterson 3,5,5,5,4,4,4,4,4,4 3-5 3Bell 4,4,6,7,7,5,3,5,5,2 2-7 4Lacy 6,7,3,4,2,6,7,3,3,5 2-7 5Hopkins 5,6,4,6,5,7,6,8,7,6 4-7 6Ball 7,1,7,3,6,3,5,6,6,2 1-7 7Lattimore 8,8,12,9,11,9,8,10,10 8-12 8Allen 11,10,14,10,9,11,12,9,8,9 8-14 9Hunter 10,9,11,13,14,11,12,9,7 7-14 10Eifert 14,12,10,12,10,8,9,13,12,11 8-14 11Franklin 9,18,9,8,12,10,7,13,14 7-18 12It looks like the top 7 are pretty well established but values are all over the place after that.Franklin stands out the most since his values show the most range.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I'd take a shot on a guy like Franklin, Stacy, Taylor, or Murray. The price would have to be right though. Franklin as a late first rounder and Stacy as an early second rounder don't really do much for me. I kind of like Stacy's short term outlook because of the opportunity and I could see him having a Vick Ballard-like rookie year, but the long term upside seems suspect and he's going high enough in rookie drafts that you're almost certainly passing up superior talents at QB/WR/TE to take him.

I don't view passing on Hunter, Wheaton or Woods as some big loss. Or Boyce or Harper. Who is there in late 1st/early 2nd to feel that strongly about? You have Boyce 12th overall - how is this any different of a bet than Franklin, with a much lower ROI if it works?

There's value at every position throughout the draft if you pick the right guy. Why waste a late 1st on Eifert when Escobar is available in the 3rd, Reed is available in the 4th, Gragg is available in the 5th, and Luke Wilson goes undrafted. Why waste a late 1st on Hunter or Boyce when Harper is available in the 4th.

You have to be in it to win it, and the cost of Franklin and Stacy has already been priced by the market. There's not much pedigree or superior upside at that point in the draft to count those midround RB picks as high risk.

 

[cstu]

I have a feeling that at least two of Bell, Ball and Lacy will be looked back on like we do Daniel Thomas, Kevin Smith and Donald Brown now.

 

[cstu]

I'd take a shot on a guy like Franklin, Stacy, Taylor, or Murray. The price would have to be right though. Franklin as a late first rounder and Stacy as an early second rounder don't really do much for me. I kind of like Stacy's short term outlook because of the opportunity and I could see him having a Vick Ballard-like rookie year, but the long term upside seems suspect and he's going high enough in rookie drafts that you're almost certainly passing up superior talents at QB/WR/TE to take him.

I don't view passing on Hunter, Wheaton or Woods as some big loss. Or Boyce or Harper. Who is there in late 1st/early 2nd to feel that strongly about? You have Boyce 12th overall - how is this any different of a bet than Franklin, with a much lower ROI if it works?

There's value at every position throughout the draft if you pick the right guy. Why waste a late 1st on Eifert when Escobar is available in the 3rd, Reed is available in the 4th, Gragg is available in the 5th, and Luke Wilson goes undrafted. Why waste a late 1st on Hunter or Boyce when Harper is available in the 4th.

You have to be in it to win it, and the cost of Franklin and Stacy has already been priced by the market. There's not much pedigree or superior upside at that point in the draft to count those midround RB picks as high risk.

Lattimore, Eifert and Hunter.

 

[10tihwj]

Finished quite a few drafts. Here they are. My picks in bold.

10 Team, Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1 WR/TE, 1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 2 CB, 2 S, 2 FLEX (anything but DE)

1.01 Austin, Tavon STL WR ®
1.02 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ®
1.03 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ®
1.04 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ®
1.05 Woods, Robert BUF WR ®
1.06 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ®
1.07 Ball, Montee DEN RB ®
1.08 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ®
1.09 Allen, Keenan SDC WR ®
1.10 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ®
2.01 Hunter, Justin TEN WR ®
2.02 Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB ®
2.03 Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ®
2.04 Brown, Arthur BAL LB ®
2.05 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ®
2.06 Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ®
2.07 Michael, Christine SEA RB ®
2.08 Smith, Geno NYJ QB ®
2.09 Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ®
2.10 Kelce, Travis KCC TE ®
3.01 Stacy, Zac STL RB ®
3.02 Wilson, Tyler OAK QB ®
3.03 Randle, Joseph DAL RB ®
3.04 Davis, Knile KCC RB ®
3.05 Barkley, Matt PHI QB ®
3.06 Glennon, Mike TBB QB ®
3.07 Ogletree, Alec STL LB ®
3.08 Bostic, Jon CHI LB ®
3.09 Williams, Terrance DAL WR ®
3.10 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE ®
4.01 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ®
4.02 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S ®
4.03 Boyce, Josh NEP WR ®
4.04 Jordan, Dion MIA DE ®
4.05 Ertz, Zach PHI TE ®
4.06 Minter, Kevin ARI LB ®
4.07 McDonald, T.J. STL S ®
4.08 Bailey, Stedman STL WR ®
4.09 Te'o, Manti SDC LB ®
4.10 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S ®
5.01 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB ®
5.02 Nassib, Ryan NYG QB ®
5.03 Jones, Jarvis PIT LB ®
5.04 Escobar, Gavin DAL TE ®
5.05 Patton, Quinton SFO WR ®
5.06 Barner, Kenjon CAR RB ®
5.07 Stills, Kenny NOS WR ®
5.08 Elam, Matt BAL S ®
5.09 Ellington, Andre ARI RB ®
5.10 Reed, Jordan WAS TE ®
6.01 Wilson, Marquess CHI WR ®
6.02 Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR ®
6.03 Gillislee, Mike MIA RB ®
6.04 Hunt, Margus CIN DE ®
6.05 Floyd, Sharrif MIN DT ®
6.06 Rodgers, Jordan JAC QB ®
6.07 Dysert, Zac DEN QB ®
6.08 McFadden, Leon CLE CB ®
6.09 Johnson, Charles GBP WR ®
6.10 Reid, Eric SFO S ®
6.01 Jones, Landry PIT QB ®
6.02 Hayden, D.J. OAK CB ®
6.03 King, Tavarres DEN WR ®
6.04 Milliner, Dee NYJ CB ®
6.05 Cunningham, Benny STL RB ®
6.06 Bray, Tyler KCC QB ®
6.07 Mathieu, Tyrann ARI S ®
6.08 Maysonet, Miguel CLE RB ®
6.09 Moore, Sio OAK LB ®
6.10 Rhodes, Xavier MIN CB ®
16 TEAM, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K or 1QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 1 K; (Defensive lineup variations): 2 DE, 2/1 DT, 3/4 LB, 2/3 CB, 2/3 Safeties
1.01 Austin, Tavon STL WR ®
1.02 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ®
1.03 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ®
1.04 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ®
1.05 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ®
1.06 Ball, Montee DEN RB ®
1.07 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ®
1.08 Brown, Arthur BAL LB ®
1.09 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ®
1.10 Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ®
1.11 Hunter, Justin TEN WR ®
1.12 Allen, Keenan SDC WR ®
1.13 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ®
1.14 Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB ®
1.15 Woods, Robert BUF WR ®
1.16 Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ®
2.01 Michael, Christine SEA RB ®
2.02 Smith, Geno NYJ QB ®
2.03 Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ®
2.04 Stacy, Zac STL RB ®
2.05 Ogletree, Alec STL LB ®
2.06 Te'o, Manti SDC LB ®
2.07 Ertz, Zach PHI TE ®
2.08 Kelce, Travis KCC TE ®
2.09 Bostic, Jon CHI LB ®
2.10 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ®
2.11 Bailey, Stedman STL WR ®
2.12 Williams, Terrance DAL WR ®
2.13 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB ®
2.14 Reed, Jordan WAS TE ®
2.15 Boyce, Josh NEP WR ®
3.01 Patton, Quinton SFO WR ®
3.02 Escobar, Gavin DAL TE ®
3.03 Randle, Joseph DAL RB ®
3.04 Jordan, Dion MIA DE ®
3.05 Davis, Knile KCC RB ®
3.06 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE ®
3.07 Minter, Kevin ARI LB ®
3.08 Mingo, Barkevious CLE LB ®
3.09 Moore, Sio OAK LB ®
3.10 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S ®
3.11 Ellington, Andre ARI RB ®
3.12 Wilson, Tyler OAK QB ®
3.13 McDonald, Vance SFO TE ®
3.14 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S ®
3.15 Reid, Eric SFO S ®
3.16 Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR ®
4.01 Jones, Jarvis PIT LB ®
4.02 Milliner, Dee NYJ CB ®
4.03 Barkley, Matt PHI QB ®
4.04 Robinson, Denard JAC RB ®
4.05 Elam, Matt BAL S ®
4.06 Jones, Datone GBP DE ®
4.07 Gooden, Zaviar TEN LB ®
4.08 Mauti, Michael MIN LB ®
4.09 Swope, Ryan ARI WR ®
4.10 Johnson, Charles GBP WR ®
4.11 Gillislee, Mike MIA RB ®
4.12 Stills, Kenny NOS WR ®
4.13 Hodges, Gerald MIN LB ®
4.14 Glennon, Mike TBB QB ®
4.15 Fuller, Corey DET WR ®
5.01 Sanders, Ace JAC WR ®
5.02 Hankins, Johnathan NYG DT ®
5.03 Murray, Latavius OAK RB ®
5.04 James, Mike TBB RB ®
5.05 Harper, Chris SEA WR ®
5.06 King, Tavarres DEN WR ®
5.07 Cunningham, Benny STL RB ®
5.08 Johnson, Nico KCC LB ®
5.09 Moore, Damontre NYG DE ®
5.10 Willson, Luke SEA TE ®
5.11 Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB ®
5.12 Swearinger, D.J. HOU S ®
5.13 Williams, Shawn CIN S ®
5.14 Timer Expired
5.15 Toilolo, Levine ATL TE ®
5.16 Timer Expired
16 TEAM QB, RB, WR, WR, TE, PK, and 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE), DT, DE, DE, LB, LB, LB, S, S, CB, CB and 1 Flex
1.01 Austin, Tavon STL WR ®
1.02 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ®
1.03 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ®
1.04 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ®
1.05 Ball, Montee DEN RB ®
1.06 Brown, Arthur BAL LB ®
1.07 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ®
1.08 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ®
1.09 Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB ®
1.10 Allen, Keenan SDC WR ®
1.11 Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ®
1.12 Hunter, Justin TEN WR ®
1.13 Woods, Robert BUF WR ®
1.14 Wilson, Tyler OAK QB ®
1.15 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ®
1.16 Smith, Geno NYJ QB ®
2.01 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ®
2.02 Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ®
2.03 Stacy, Zac STL RB ®
2.04 Michael, Christine SEA RB ®
2.05 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE ®
2.06 Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ®
2.07 Ogletree, Alec STL LB ®
2.08 Jordan, Dion MIA DE ®
2.09 Bailey, Stedman STL WR ®
2.10 Barkley, Matt PHI QB ®
2.11 Te'o, Manti SDC LB ®
2.12 Ellington, Andre ARI RB ®
2.13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ®
2.14 Bostic, Jon CHI LB ®
2.15 Elam, Matt BAL S ®
2.16 Boyce, Josh NEP WR ®
3.01 Minter, Kevin ARI LB ®
3.02 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S ®
3.03 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB ®
3.04 Stills, Kenny NOS WR ®
3.05 Jones, Jarvis PIT LB ®
3.06 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S ®
3.07 Kelce, Travis KCC TE ®
3.08 Gillislee, Mike MIA RB ®
3.09 Randle, Joseph DAL RB ®
3.10 Moore, Sio OAK LB ®
3.11 Williams, Shawn CIN S ®
3.12 Fuller, Corey DET WR ®
3.13 Wilson, Marquess CHI WR ®
3.14 Williams, Terrance DAL WR ®
3.15 Ertz, Zach PHI TE ®
3.16 Johnson, Nico KCC LB ®
3.17 Reed, Jordan WAS TE ®
4.01 Robinson, Denard JAC RB ®
4.02 Carradine, Cornellius SFO DE ®
4.03 Patton, Quinton SFO WR ®
4.04 Mellette, Aaron BAL WR ®
4.05 Greene, Khaseem CHI LB ®
4.06 Murray, Latavius OAK RB ®
4.07 Glennon, Mike TBB QB ®
4.08 Mingo, Barkevious CLE LB ®
4.09 Reid, Eric SFO S ®
4.10 Moore, Damontre NYG DE ®
4.11 James, Mike TBB RB ®
4.12 Hunt, Margus CIN DE ®
4.13 Floyd, Sharrif MIN DT ®
4.14 Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR ®
4.15 Davis, Knile KCC RB ®
4.16 Jones, Datone GBP DE ®
5.01 Rhodes, Xavier MIN CB ®
5.02 McDonald, T.J. STL S ®
5.03 Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB ®
5.04 Johnson, Charles GBP WR ®
5.05 Swope, Ryan ARI WR ®
5.06 Swearinger, D.J. HOU S ®
5.07 Harrison, Mark NEP WR ®
5.08 Smith, Quanterus DEN DE ®
5.09 Mauti, Michael MIN LB ®
5.10 Graham, Ray HOU RB ®
5.11 Williams, Kerwynn IND RB ®
5.12 Thompson, Chris WAS RB ®
5.13 Mathieu, Tyrann ARI S ®
5.14 Sturgis, Caleb MIA PK ®
5.15 Harper, Chris SEA WR ®
5.16 Milliner, Dee NYJ CB ®

12 TEAM (we draft 24 college players each year and hold them over) Start 1 QB 1 RB 2 WR 1 TE 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE) 1 PK 1 DT 1 DE 3 LB 2 CB 2 S 1 Flex (any position)
3.01 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ®
3.02 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ®
3.03 Austin, Tavon STL WR ®
3.04 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ®
3.05 Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ®
3.06 Jones, Jarvis PIT LB ®
3.07 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ®
3.08 Brown, Arthur BAL LB ®
3.09 Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ®
3.10 Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ®
3.11 Kelce, Travis KCC TE ®
4.01 Minter, Kevin ARI LB ®
4.02 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB ®
4.03 Ware, Spencer SEA RB ®
4.04 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S ®
4.05 Ertz, Zach PHI TE ®
4.06 Randle, Joseph DAL RB ®
4.07 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE ®
4.08 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S ®
4.09 Smith, Geno NYJ QB ®
4.10 Bostic, Jon CHI LB ®
4.11 Reed, Jordan WAS TE ®
4.12 Elam, Matt BAL S ®
5.01 Ellington, Andre ARI RB ®
5.02 Moore, Sio OAK LB ®
5.03 Rambo, Bacarri WAS S ®
5.04 Mingo, Barkevious CLE LB ®
5.05 Bailey, Stedman STL WR ®
5.06 McDonald, Vance SFO TE ®
5.07 Escobar, Gavin DAL TE ®
5.08 Glennon, Mike TBB QB ®
5.09 Carradine, Cornellius SFO DE ®
5.10 Patton, Quinton SFO WR ®
5.11 Johnson, Charles GBP WR ®
6.01 Johnson, Nico KCC LB ®
6.02 Fuller, Corey DET WR ®
6.03 Barner, Kenjon CAR RB ®
6.04 Milliner, Dee NYJ CB ®
6.05 Swope, Ryan ARI WR ®
6.06 Jordan, Dion MIA DE ®
6.07 Thomas, Shamarko PIT S ®
6.08 Lotulelei, Star CAR DT ®
6.09 Jones, Datone GBP DE ®
6.10 Robinson, Denard JAC RB ®
6.11 Harper, Chris SEA WR ®
6.12 Cunningham, Benny STL RB ®

12 TEAM, Start 1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE) 1 PK 1 DT 1 DE 3 LB 1 CB 1 S 2 Flex (any position, up to 4 LBs per starting lineup)
1.01 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ®
1.02 Austin, Tavon STL WR ®
1.03 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ®
1.04 Ball, Montee DEN RB ®
1.05 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ®
1.06 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ®
1.07 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ®
1.08 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ®
1.09 Woods, Robert BUF WR ®
1.10 Hunter, Justin TEN WR ®
1.11 Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ®
2.01 Smith, Geno NYJ QB ®
2.02 Allen, Keenan SDC WR ®
2.03 Wheaton, Markus PIT WR ®
2.04 Stacy, Zac STL RB ®
2.05 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB ®
2.06 Brown, Arthur BAL LB ®
2.07 Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB ®
2.08 Dobson, Aaron NEP WR ®
2.09 Jordan, Dion MIA DE ®
2.10 Kelce, Travis KCC TE ®
2.11 Williams, Terrance DAL WR ®
3.01 Gillislee, Mike MIA RB ®
3.02 Ertz, Zach PHI TE ®
3.03 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR ®
3.04 Bailey, Stedman STL WR ®
3.05 Bostic, Jon CHI LB ®
3.06 Michael, Christine SEA RB ®
3.07 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S ®
3.08 Ogletree, Alec STL LB ®
3.09 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB ®
3.10 Randle, Joseph DAL RB ®
3.11 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE ®
3.12 Patton, Quinton SFO WR ®
3.13 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S ®
4.01 Reed, Jordan WAS TE ®
4.02 Te'o, Manti SDC LB ®
4.03 Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR ®
4.04 Boyce, Josh NEP WR ®
4.05 Minter, Kevin ARI LB ®
4.06 Reid, Eric SFO S ®
4.07 Elam, Matt BAL S ®
4.08 Escobar, Gavin DAL TE ®
4.09 Davis, Knile KCC RB ®
4.10 Robinson, Denard JAC RB ®
4.11 Stills, Kenny NOS WR ®
4.12 Ellington, Andre ARI RB ®
5.01 Wilson, Marquess CHI WR ®
5.02 McDonald, Vance SFO TE ®
5.03 Mingo, Barkevious CLE LB ®
5.04 Swope, Ryan ARI WR ®
5.05 Moore, Sio OAK LB ®
5.06 Swearinger, D.J. HOU S ®
5.07 Jones, Jarvis PIT LB ®
5.08 Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB ®
5.09 Werner, Bjoern IND LB ®
5.10 Barner, Kenjon CAR RB ®
5.11 Johnson, Charles GBP WR ®
5.12 Harper, Chris SEA WR ®
6.01 Mathieu, Tyrann ARI S ®
6.02 Collins, Jamie NEP LB ®
6.03 Fuller, Corey DET WR ®
6.04 King, Tavarres DEN WR ®
6.05 Cunningham, Benny STL RB ®
6.06 Kasa, Nick OAK TE ®
6.07 Barkley, Matt PHI QB ®
6.08 Murray, Latavius OAK RB ®
6.09 James, Mike TBB RB ®
6.10 Johnson, Nico KCC LB ®
6.11 Wilson, Tyler OAK QB ®

16 Team, Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 PK, 2 DE, 1 DT, 2 LB, 2 CB, 2 S, 2 Def Flex (DT, LB, CB S)
1.01 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB
1.02 Austin, Tavon STL WR
1.03 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
1.04 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR
1.05 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
1.06 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB
1.07 Ball, Montee DEN RB
1.08 Allen, Keenan SDC WR
1.09 Hunter, Justin TEN WR
1.10 Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB
1.11 Manuel, E.J. BUF QB
1.12 Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB
1.13 Brown, Arthur BAL LB
1.14 Eifert, Tyler CIN TE
1.15 Barner, Kenjon CAR RB
1.16 Jordan, Dion MIA DE
2.01 Stacy, Zac STL RB
2.02 Dobson, Aaron NEP WR
2.03 Wheaton, Markus PIT WR
2.04 Michael, Christine SEA RB
2.05 Jones, Jarvis PIT LB
2.06 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE
2.07 Woods, Robert BUF WR
2.08 Kelce, Travis KCC TE
2.09 Ertz, Zach PHI TE
2.10 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S
2.11 Bailey, Stedman STL WR
2.12 Smith, Geno NYJ QB
2.13 Randle, Joseph DAL RB
2.14 Minter, Kevin ARI LB
2.15 Gillislee, Mike MIA RB
2.16 Ogletree, Alec STL LB
3.01 Te'o, Manti SDC LB
3.02 Williams, Terrance DAL WR
3.03 Murray, Latavius OAK RB
3.04 Stills, Kenny NOS WR
3.05 Floyd, Sharrif MIN DT
3.06 Rhodes, Xavier MIN CB
3.07 Robinson, Denard JAC RB
3.08 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S
3.09 Escobar, Gavin DAL TE
3.10 Boyce, Josh NEP WR
3.11 Wilson, Tyler OAK QB
3.12 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB
3.13 Reid, Eric SFO S
3.14 Moore, Sio OAK LB
3.15 Bostic, Jon CHI LB
3.16 Johnson, Charles GBP WR
4.01 Patton, Quinton SFO WR
4.02 Timer Expired
4.03 Elam, Matt BAL S
4.04 Barkley, Matt PHI QB
4.05 Mingo, Barkevious CLE LB
4.06 Lotulelei, Star CAR DT
4.07 Reed, Jordan WAS TE
4.08 Richardson, Sheldon NYJ DE
4.09 Trufant, Desmond ATL CB
4.10 Milliner, Dee NYJ CB
4.11 McDonald, T.J. STL S
4.12 Johnson, Nico KCC LB
4.13 Rogers, Da'Rick BUF WR
4.14 Glennon, Mike TBB QB
4.15 Davis, Knile KCC RB
4.16 Swearinger, D.J. HOU S
5.01 Greene, Khaseem CHI LB
5.02 Ellington, Andre ARI RB
5.03 Taylor, Stepfan ARI RB
5.04 Moore, Damontre NYG DE
5.05 Swope, Ryan ARI WR
5.06 Thomas, Shamarko PIT S
5.07 Hunt, Margus CIN DE
5.08 Mauti, Michael MIN LB
5.09 Jones, Datone GBP DE
5.10 Banks, Johnthan TBB CB
5.11 Wilcox, J.J. DAL S
5.12 Williams, Sylvester DEN DT
5.13 Lemonier, Corey SFO DE
5.14 Werner, Bjoern IND LB
5.15 Bass, David OAK DE
5.16 Cunningham, Benny STL RB

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Morris, Foster, Ivory, Ballard are 4 guys off the top of my head that disagree.

I will surely grant you Foster and Morris, but Ivory has been in the league three years and not distinguished himself (I'm hopeful he stays healthy and plays better on his new team this year) and Ballard seems very average, like the kind of guy a team plugs in until they get a chance to draft someone better. From a fantasy perspective those guys are great bye week plug-ins for a year or maybe two, but then they're relegated to NFL backup duty once the team is able to focus on upgrading the position. Those are the guys I love to trade away while the value is high.

You hope Ivory plays better? Seems like a strange statement.

He had three years to beat out Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram for the majority of carries in a committee backfield and failed to do so. His rookie season showed promise (137 carries with 5.2 yard per rush average) but then the team drafted a new RB in Mark Ingram and Ivory was relegated to third string for the next two seasons. I know part of that was injuries, but that plays into it all as well. What that tells me loud and clear is that even though he showed some good things his first year, the Saints coaching staff and front office, who sees him every day in practice as well as in games, didn't feel he was an NFL starting RB and made moves to replace him and then let him go this off-season.

We'll see if he's able to make any noise with the Jets, I think he'll have some modest success.

 

[cstu]

Zac Stacy is going way too high, 5th round RB's are horrible gambles early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Morris, Foster, Ivory, Ballard are 4 guys off the top of my head that disagree.

I will surely grant you Foster and Morris, but Ivory has been in the league three years and not distinguished himself (I'm hopeful he stays healthy and plays better on his new team this year) and Ballard seems very average, like the kind of guy a team plugs in until they get a chance to draft someone better. From a fantasy perspective those guys are great bye week plug-ins for a year or maybe two, but then they're relegated to NFL backup duty once the team is able to focus on upgrading the position. Those are the guys I love to trade away while the value is high.

You hope Ivory plays better? Seems like a strange statement.

He had three years to beat out Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram for the majority of carries in a committee backfield and failed to do so. His rookie season showed promise (137 carries with 5.2 yard per rush average) but then the team drafted a new RB in Mark Ingram and Ivory was relegated to third string for the next two seasons. I know part of that was injuries, but that plays into it all as well. What that tells me loud and clear is that even though he showed some good things his first year, the Saints coaching staff and front office, who sees him every day in practice as well as in games, didn't feel he was an NFL starting RB and made moves to replace him and then let him go this off-season.

We'll see if he's able to make any noise with the Jets, I think he'll have some modest success.

Even if he can stay healthy, the negative to me is that he doesn't catch the ball. 3 catches in 3 years with the Saints and only 15 in 3 years in college. Great for non-PPR but no so much for PPR.

 

[EBF]

I'd take a shot on a guy like Franklin, Stacy, Taylor, or Murray. The price would have to be right though. Franklin as a late first rounder and Stacy as an early second rounder don't really do much for me. I kind of like Stacy's short term outlook because of the opportunity and I could see him having a Vick Ballard-like rookie year, but the long term upside seems suspect and he's going high enough in rookie drafts that you're almost certainly passing up superior talents at QB/WR/TE to take him.

I don't view passing on Hunter, Wheaton or Woods as some big loss. Or Boyce or Harper. Who is there in late 1st/early 2nd to feel that strongly about? You have Boyce 12th overall - how is this any different of a bet than Franklin, with a much lower ROI if it works?

There's value at every position throughout the draft if you pick the right guy. Why waste a late 1st on Eifert when Escobar is available in the 3rd, Reed is available in the 4th, Gragg is available in the 5th, and Luke Wilson goes undrafted. Why waste a late 1st on Hunter or Boyce when Harper is available in the 4th.

You have to be in it to win it, and the cost of Franklin and Stacy has already been priced by the market. There's not much pedigree or superior upside at that point in the draft to count those midround RB picks as high risk.

The late 1st/early 2nd is Hunter/Michael/Eifert territory for me this year. I think all of those guys offer a nice combination of pedigree, physical tools, upside, and value-per-cost.

In terms of value at WR and TE falling down the draft, that's not a good excuse for making bad picks early. Think of it this way...if you knew for sure that you could get Jimmy Graham in the 6th round of your dynasty startup, would you pass on the opportunity to draft Gronk in the 4th round if he was available? No. You would still take him there because he's clearly the best player available. And then you would come back and grab Graham in the 6th anyway. And then at some point in the future you would trade one of the two for a QB/RB/WR who's vastly superior to what you could've drafted.

You don't pass on a dollar to take a quarter in the first round just because you can also get a dollar in the third round. It's about getting the most total value, which means getting the best available player with each of your picks.

I'm willing to rank a guy above/below whatever his NFL draft position would dictate, but I like to have a reason. Sometimes the reasons are compelling and sometimes they aren't. With a guy like Lattimore or Harper, you can come up with some pretty good excuses for why they fell. Lattimore has injury issues and Harper is a converted QB with an atypical skill set who played in a run-first offense with a spotty passing QB. Those are good excuses. What excuse does a guy like Franklin have? He wasn't injured, he has no character issues, he isn't a small school player. There's nothing that would cause NFL teams to unjustly move him down their boards, which suggests to me that they simply evaluated him as a mediocre talent.

This is all a big puzzle and we all have different ways of deciphering it. Sometimes the conclusions that I derive end up in sharp contrast with the consensus. I don't see how a guy like Franklin should be going 10-20 spots ahead of higher NFL draft picks with better physical tools like Harper and Boyce. I don't really see why Stacy should be drafted a round or two ahead of higher draft picks like Knile Davis and Stepfan Taylor. Other owners who put more emphasis on immediate returns, are more focused on opportunity, and aren't as willing to sit on a prospect for 2-3 years before seeing a return are going to have a different approach. To someone like that, the prospect of getting the quick hit on a player like Stacy is more appealing than waiting 2-3 years to see if a marginally better prospect like Taylor or Harper will pan out. I get the logic, but in some cases it's stretched too far.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I'd take a shot on a guy like Franklin, Stacy, Taylor, or Murray. The price would have to be right though. Franklin as a late first rounder and Stacy as an early second rounder don't really do much for me. I kind of like Stacy's short term outlook because of the opportunity and I could see him having a Vick Ballard-like rookie year, but the long term upside seems suspect and he's going high enough in rookie drafts that you're almost certainly passing up superior talents at QB/WR/TE to take him.

I don't view passing on Hunter, Wheaton or Woods as some big loss. Or Boyce or Harper. Who is there in late 1st/early 2nd to feel that strongly about? You have Boyce 12th overall - how is this any different of a bet than Franklin, with a much lower ROI if it works?

There's value at every position throughout the draft if you pick the right guy. Why waste a late 1st on Eifert when Escobar is available in the 3rd, Reed is available in the 4th, Gragg is available in the 5th, and Luke Wilson goes undrafted. Why waste a late 1st on Hunter or Boyce when Harper is available in the 4th.

You have to be in it to win it, and the cost of Franklin and Stacy has already been priced by the market. There's not much pedigree or superior upside at that point in the draft to count those midround RB picks as high risk.

The late 1st/early 2nd is Hunter/Michael/Eifert territory for me this year. I think all of those guys offer a nice combination of pedigree, physical tools, upside, and value-per-cost.

I think it's worth the risk to pass on Hunter for a RB if Michael is gone (which he was in the instances I took Franklin or Stacy). Consider Hill/Quick/Jeffery vs. Turbin/Ballard/Morris/Gray. There is significant risk this time next year that Stacy is not worth the pick you used to select him. But the same is true of Hunter and Wheaton.

You don't pass on a dollar to take a quarter in the first round just because you can also get a dollar in the third round. It's about getting the most total value, which means getting the best available player with each of your picks.

If everyone valued Eifert as a dollar, that'd make sense. But there's a reason his stock has dropped. Eifert's stock dropped because his actual value will be low for 2 years.


The one league I got Stacy, I immediately got offers for him right after I took him. Market value is the same. Actual value TBD.

If I take Eifert in the 1st and Kelce in the 2nd, I have not altered the market in my favor. This is different from taking Graham and Gronk. If I take Graham and Gronk I now have a liquid asset with high value. The TE I sell is an upgrade for each of the 11 other teams. Eifert and Kelce are not that liquid. Neither is likely to help teams this year. Even most "pretty roster" owners will not covet a developmental TE. There are other TEs from Cameron/Allen to Gragg/McDonald who are relatively easy to acquire.

What excuse does a guy like Franklin have? He wasn't injured, he has no character issues, he isn't a small school player. There's nothing that would cause NFL teams to unjustly move him down their boards, which suggests to me that they simply evaluated him as a mediocre talent.

RBs don't need excuses they just need situation. 4th rd RB does not guarantee 2nd chances, but he will make the team and have an opportunity to look better (or stay healthier) than Lacy. Granted I like Lacy more but the reason people take Franklin is clear/obvious and cannot be discounted by saying "oh the NFL didn't take him early enough."

The market doesn't always value things correctly but I think in this case it has. I agree Michael goes too low in many drafts, for example. But Franklin is about right regardless of whether Bloom et al hyped him too much in March/April.

 

[Dez]

Forgot Bradshaw he had a nice run as a 7th round pick. In the past we have had hall of fame backs come out of the 6th round Terrell Davis comes to mind. I am sure there are many more 4th-7th round guys that have produced throughout the years. Is it likely ? Probably not but who seen Morris from last year coming and he is going in the 2nd round of startup drafts now. So if someone wants to take a shot with an early 2nd on Stacy why not ? I was laughing at a guy who took Morris at pick 1.10 last year...who is laughing now ?

 

[EBF]

I think it's worth the risk to pass on Hunter for a RB if Michael is gone (which he was in the instances I took Franklin or Stacy). Consider Hill/Quick/Jeffery vs. Turbin/Ballard/Morris/Gray. There is significant risk this time next year that Stacy is not worth the pick you used to select him. But the same is true of Hunter and Wheaton.

It's all about the odds. I'll take the top 35 pick at WR over the dime a dozen RBs, especially in formats that don't pressure you to load up on backs. In a mandatory start 2 RB league I can kind of understand the temptation to grab someone like Stacy and hope that he plays right away, but in a less RB-heavy format like the HyperActive leagues I'm really struggling to see why I should be excited to get someone like Franklin or Stacy whose realistic best case scenario is being a middle-of-the-road FF RB2. I'd much rather have a potential star at WR like Hunter. Your example from last year's class is premature because we're only one year out and WRs usually don't spike until 2-3 years into their careers. If you're the type who drafts players with the intention of flipping them then I guess it's valid to point out that a rookie RB with an early line on playing time has a better chance to spike in value right away, but if you're more of a draft-to-keep type like myself then that argument isn't very convincing. Anthony Thomas had more value than Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Santana Moss after their first NFL season. Who had the better career? It's fine to treat players as commodities and draft them with the intention of trading, but there are hangups with that style. You have to know when to buy and when to sell, which is easier said than done. Not many people thought Julius Jones, Cadillac Williams, and Kevin Jones were fool's gold after their rookie year. You can say that you should sell guys like that when their value peaks, but how do you recognize that moment? People who had Mendenhall after his 1100 yards/4.6 YPC sophomore season didn't think, "Man, he had some success, I better trade him now." They thought, "Man, I've got the next great RB and he's only 22. No way am I trading him now." Likewise, Ryan Mathews owners weren't itching to trade him last year. CJ Spiller owners aren't itching to trade him right now. The same applies to any number of guys like Eddie Royal, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Braylon Edwards, and Ronnie Brown who had brief flirtations with stardom before fading into uselessness. I can't speak for any other approaches, but my goal with my picks is to get the best long term player. That means drafting someone like Christine Michael ahead of Johnathan Franklin even though his path to playing time is murkier. The rabid desire for immediate returns that can occasionally land you an Alfred Morris or Vick Ballard also creates market inefficiencies for people who are more inclined towards the longview. We saw that last year with Bernard Pierce going much later than Pead/Hillman and I think we're seeing some similar things this year. Everyone is looking to catch lightning in a bottle at RB, which is pushing some quality players down the board. You can get a good WR, QB, or TE relatively cheap. You can get a RB significantly later than players with similar draft slots solely on the basis of perceived opportunity. Look at the ADP gap between Lacy/Bell/Ball/Bernard and Michael. Or the gap between Johnathan Franklin and Knile Davis. Or the gap between Zac Stacy and Stepfan Taylor. If you're the type of owner who drafts with the intention of keeping, I think the value resides in the high picks nobody wants, not the low picks everybody wants. We'll disagree about Franklin. I think he's probably the most overrated rookie this year. An average 4th round talent on a team that just spent a 2nd rounder on a superior RB has no business going in the top 12 of a rookie draft. The beauty of getting guys like Dwayne Allen, Aaron Hernandez, Mike Williams, Stevan Ridley, and Daryl Richardson as rookies is that their price tag was hugely discounted under the assumption that they would play second fiddle to a higher pick at their position (Coby Fleener, Rob Gronkowski, Arrelious Benn, Shane Vereen, Isaiah Pead). Franklin drafters are hoping for a similar scenario, but what strikes me about this case is that there's almost no ADP discount being applied. Lacy seems to go between 1.02-1.08 in most drafts. Given his presence, you'd expect Franklin to go somewhere between 15-30, but he seems to predictably fall in the 10-12 range in all of my drafts. Even though we've seen plenty of these situations where the later pick turned out to the better player, this is the first one I can remember where the difference in ADP is so thin right away. It's almost like Franklin is being drafted in the same place he would be as a late 4th rounder on the Packers even if they hadn't drafted Lacy in the 2nd, which seems a bit odd to me. This isn't like TE or WR where more than one guy on a team can have reliable weekly value. It's likely that only one of these two will pan out, and I don't think Franklin's ADP justifies the risk/reward equation. I forget exactly where I slotted him in my rankings, but I think it was approximately 24th-28th. That seems like a more reasonable price tag given his athletic profile/draft slot/Lacy factor.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

First 2 drafts started today. Sister leagues. 16 team leagues with IDP, Tiered PPR, very flexible line-ups. 43 man rosters + 12 man taxi squads.

Repressed Peasants is my team here.

Killer Rabbits is my team here.

2 more in progress

Canton Yellowjackets in this league

Sons of Atouk over here

These leagues are both 16 team contract dynasty leagues with IDP.

My last draft is going on now. I am the Canton Busts.

Very different league. My first season, so I am just feeling things out. players in this league all have salaries and each team has a $30k salary cap. Player's who are cut count against your cap until their contract expires, @ 50% in year 1, 40% in year 2, etc. There is a rookie salary draft slot chart, and it seems to me that the league is quite a bit more cautious with their picks than what I have noticed in other leagues.

 

[az_prof]

I think it's worth the risk to pass on Hunter for a RB if Michael is gone (which he was in the instances I took Franklin or Stacy). Consider Hill/Quick/Jeffery vs. Turbin/Ballard/Morris/Gray. There is significant risk this time next year that Stacy is not worth the pick you used to select him. But the same is true of Hunter and Wheaton.

It's all about the odds. I'll take the top 35 pick at WR over the dime a dozen RBs, especially in formats that don't pressure you to load up on backs. In a mandatory start 2 RB league I can kind of understand the temptation to grab someone like Stacy and hope that he plays right away, but in a less RB-heavy format like the HyperActive leagues I'm really struggling to see why I should be excited to get someone like Franklin or Stacy whose realistic best case scenario is being a middle-of-the-road FF RB2. I'd much rather have a potential star at WR like Hunter. Your example from last year's class is premature because we're only one year out and WRs usually don't spike until 2-3 years into their careers. If you're the type who drafts players with the intention of flipping them then I guess it's valid to point out that a rookie RB with an early line on playing time has a better chance to spike in value right away, but if you're more of a draft-to-keep type like myself then that argument isn't very convincing. Anthony Thomas had more value than Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Santana Moss after their first NFL season. Who had the better career? It's fine to treat players as commodities and draft them with the intention of trading, but there are hangups with that style. You have to know when to buy and when to sell, which is easier said than done. Not many people thought Julius Jones, Cadillac Williams, and Kevin Jones were fool's gold after their rookie year. You can say that you should sell guys like that when their value peaks, but how do you recognize that moment? People who had Mendenhall after his 1100 yards/4.6 YPC sophomore season didn't think, "Man, he had some success, I better trade him now." They thought, "Man, I've got the next great RB and he's only 22. No way am I trading him now." Likewise, Ryan Mathews owners weren't itching to trade him last year. CJ Spiller owners aren't itching to trade him right now. The same applies to any number of guys like Eddie Royal, Steve Slaton, Anthony Thomas, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Braylon Edwards, and Ronnie Brown who had brief flirtations with stardom before fading into uselessness. I can't speak for any other approaches, but my goal with my picks is to get the best long term player. That means drafting someone like Christine Michael ahead of Johnathan Franklin even though his path to playing time is murkier. The rabid desire for immediate returns that can occasionally land you an Alfred Morris or Vick Ballard also creates market inefficiencies for people who are more inclined towards the longview. We saw that last year with Bernard Pierce going much later than Pead/Hillman and I think we're seeing some similar things this year. Everyone is looking to catch lightning in a bottle at RB, which is pushing some quality players down the board. You can get a good WR, QB, or TE relatively cheap. You can get a RB significantly later than players with similar draft slots solely on the basis of perceived opportunity. Look at the ADP gap between Lacy/Bell/Ball/Bernard and Michael. Or the gap between Johnathan Franklin and Knile Davis. Or the gap between Zac Stacy and Stepfan Taylor. If you're the type of owner who drafts with the intention of keeping, I think the value resides in the high picks nobody wants, not the low picks everybody wants. We'll disagree about Franklin. I think he's probably the most overrated rookie this year. An average 4th round talent on a team that just spent a 2nd rounder on a superior RB has no business going in the top 12 of a rookie draft. The beauty of getting guys like Dwayne Allen, Aaron Hernandez, Mike Williams, Stevan Ridley, and Daryl Richardson as rookies is that their price tag was hugely discounted under the assumption that they would play second fiddle to a higher pick at their position (Coby Fleener, Rob Gronkowski, Arrelious Benn, Shane Vereen, Isaiah Pead). Franklin drafters are hoping for a similar scenario, but what strikes me about this case is that there's almost no ADP discount being applied. Lacy seems to go between 1.02-1.08 in most drafts. Given his presence, you'd expect Franklin to go somewhere between 15-30, but he seems to predictably fall in the 10-12 range in all of my drafts. Even though we've seen plenty of these situations where the later pick turned out to the better player, this is the first one I can remember where the difference in ADP is so thin right away. It's almost like Franklin is being drafted in the same place he would be as a late 4th rounder on the Packers even if they hadn't drafted Lacy in the 2nd, which seems a bit odd to me. This isn't like TE or WR where more than one guy on a team can have reliable weekly value. It's likely that only one of these two will pan out, and I don't think Franklin's ADP justifies the risk/reward equation. I forget exactly where I slotted him in my rankings, but I think it was approximately 24th-28th. That seems like a more reasonable price tag given his athletic profile/draft slot/Lacy factor.

I picked Hunter at 1.11 partly because of his ceiling, but also because if he does pan out, the life span of a WR is closer to 8 years. The lifespan of a RB is closer to 3 years.

 

[Dez]

Also the type of league really affects it in the FFPC where you can only roster 20 guys the entire season and have to cut down to 14 position players by Feb 28th each year guys like Torrey Smith were drafted high and waived before week 1 of the season as it is tough to carry dead weight on your roster so if the WR isn't going to have some kind of impact on your team you are really hurting yourself for that year with roster flexibility plus FFPC is a 2 RB league.

I took Stacy at pick 1.11 in 1 of them didn't love it at all but I already owned Pead and was in desperate need of a RB if I had only known someone in my league was going to deal Lamar Miller for pick 2.08 I would have gladly given up pick 1.11 to him for Miller but I had no idea that was happening. Miller was a stash guy last year and now is going super high in startups.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I can't speak for any other approaches, but my goal with my picks is to get the best long term player. That means drafting someone like Christine Michael ahead of Johnathan Franklin even though his path to playing time is murkier.

It is less about immediate ROI than it is about upside, risk, and positional value. The value proposition for a WR or TE is much different than RB in most leagues. Is it more likely Franklin becomes a RB2 or Hunter becomes a WR2? Both are possible (what you hope for) but not likely. The median outcome for Hunter may be a useful flex player vs. a handcuff or even unrosterable for Stacy or Franklin, but the value difference of those outcomes is not big. I think if you pictured value vs. probability vs. time for all 3, the curves would all be different but the average/integral would be similar.

 

[Black]

It's all about the odds. I'll take the top 35 pick at WR over the dime a dozen RBs..

I'd take a shot on a guy like Franklin, Stacy, Taylor, or Murray. The price would have to be right though...

The only rookie RBs I've drafted in any leagues this year are Michael, Knile, Taylor, and Ware. With those players, I think situational factors and general skepticism have driven their ADP down to a point where the odds of success justify the price of entry. I think that's the name of the game. The upside of landing a starting RB is pretty appealing, but you've got to pay a price that makes sense.

Who are you drafting if you are avoiding RBs early in the draft? I have read your rankings and am interested to hear what players you prefer early in the Rookie Drafts, and why.

 

[EBF]

It's all about the odds. I'll take the top 35 pick at WR over the dime a dozen RBs..

I'd take a shot on a guy like Franklin, Stacy, Taylor, or Murray. The price would have to be right though...

The only rookie RBs I've drafted in any leagues this year are Michael, Knile, Taylor, and Ware. With those players, I think situational factors and general skepticism have driven their ADP down to a point where the odds of success justify the price of entry. I think that's the name of the game. The upside of landing a starting RB is pretty appealing, but you've got to pay a price that makes sense.

Who are you drafting if you are avoiding RBs early in the draft? I have read your rankings and am interested to hear what players you prefer early in the Rookie Drafts, and why.

I only had one top 6 pick this year and I spent it on Eifert. I don't think he has as much upside as some of the RB/WR, but I don't really like the top of the draft this year and I think he's the only can't-miss prospect. If I had to choose someone else I would probably take Austin and try to trade him.

I think some of the other options like Lacy and Ball also have a chance to be pretty good right out of the box, but in general I'd probably rather trade back into the late first for Eifert/Hunter/Michael and grab an extra top 25 pick than stay put and take a Bell/Hopkins/Patterson. I don't like the early picks much this year, but there's good value sliding down into the later rounds.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

I think some think Lacy's injury will give Franklin some action and might overtake Lacy. In any case, Harper is going under the radar because of the crowded depth at WR in Seattle and a lot of people want the immediate player vs the long term project like Harper. I do like the fact that he fell to me. Ideally I am going to put him on my practice squad for the upcoming season.

In general, I think it's interesting that the consensus has inconsistent logic in terms of liking/disliking certain players. Harper/Franklin is a great example. I would argue that in a balanced format Harper should be valued similarly on the basis of his draft slot/potential. However, Franklin always goes higher in my rookie drafts. Without exception. Usually by a wide margin. I would chalk most of that up to the fact that he plays a prestige position and that he was touted by some as a 2nd round talent prior to the NFL draft.

I think the latter point is key. When we hear for months that X player is supposed to go in Y round, it makes an impression that lingers even if the player goes elsewhere in the actual NFL draft. So while Franklin was just a late 4th round pick, to many people he's "really" a 2nd round talent even though he didn't actually go there. A similar thing is going on with Da'Rick Rogers and Matt Barkley. Both of them go higher in rookie drafts than you would expect given their NFL draft position.

You can call it the Jonathan Dwyer phenomenon. Dwyer was a 6th round pick, but went top 15 in a lot of rookie drafts under the belief that he was "really" a 1st-2nd round talent. I was one of the suckers who took the bait in that case. I'm not sure that it matters where a guy was "supposed" to be drafted. In the history books, you're picked in the round you're picked in, and that's that. If you weren't picked in the 1st round, you aren't "really" a 1st round pick, no matter what the pundits said about you in March.

Guys like Chris Johnson, Doug Martin, and Demaryius Thomas were probably a little underrated by FF owners as rookies because of this phenomenon. They weren't necessarily "supposed to be" first round picks and so they generally had a little less hype than they might have otherwise had in their identical draft slots. On the other hand, it's pretty clear that the hive mind gets it right sometimes. Look at last year's draft. Lamar Miller was a 4th round pick who was "supposed to be" a 2nd-3rd rounder. AJ Jenkins was a 1st round pick who was "supposed to be" a 2nd-3rd rounder. Despite the fact that Jenkins was picked a lot higher by the NFL, Miller went higher in most of my rookie drafts. It's too early to reach a verdict on either of those two, but as of right now Miller looks like the better talent.

I don't really know what to make of all this, but in cases where you have a guy whose FF draft slot doesn't quite jive with his NFL draft slot, I think it's wise to ask yourself if there's good reason for it. With guys like Lamar Miller and Marcus Lattimore, it's pretty likely that injury pushed them down lower than they would've gone if healthy. With a guy like Cecil Shorts or Vincent Jackson, it's likely that the small school factor depressed their draft spot. Those players have excuses for falling.

A guy like Franklin is more of a dubious case. He didn't play at a small school, he isn't dealing with any injury/durability stuff, he isn't switching positions, and there are no character concerns to speak of. He has no excuse for being a late-ish pick, apart from the most obvious one: the evaluators just weren't that impressed with him. That doesn't mean they aren't wrong, but as of right now it sure looks like he's a player whose draft hype and perceived value have been inflated.

I'm not 100% sure who will win the Green Bay RB battle, but it seems pretty clear that Lacy and Franklin can't both justify their ADP. In all likelihood, one of them will clearly outshine the other and render him mostly irrelevant.

As Dynasty GMs, we are always looking for insight, edges over competition, ways to find great players on the cheap, etc.

Guys like Dr. Bramel, Matt Waldman and Sigmund Bloom do great work analyzing prospects pre and post draft. Draftcountdown.com, gbnreport.com, etc., also provide a ton of great insight, reasons to like particular players, reasons to like situations, etc. I find it fascinating how much that information is treated preferentially to what happens in the NFL draft.

Look at one player this year who is a second round pick, in an offensive skill position, and on a team where a vacuum was recently created for targets: Vance McDonald. Here's a guy that's in a situation to potentially excel, but is being taken in the 5th and 6th rounds of rookie drafts. And probably because guys like Bloom and Waldman don't like his skill set. Someone in the SF front office does.

The argument against liking that player from a situational standpoint rests on the presence of Vernon Davis. I look at that situation and think about the Patriots with Gronk and Hernandez. I look at the Bengals drafting Eifert with Gresham in place. The Eagles drafting Ertz with Celek in place. 2 pass catching, productive TEs seems to be a norm that every team is striving for, but generally speaking folks don't want to embrace that any more than they do the fact that most rookie RBs are being drafted to work in a RBBC situation.

I'm not advocating that Vance McDonald will be a special player or anything like that. I am just saying that as a whole, I think the community of fantasy GMs put more stock in the opinions of pundits then they do in the work of the scouting teams and front office personnel of NFL teams. And it's a crazy-interesting dynamic. Both crazy and interesting...crazy in an interesting way and interesting in a crazy way.

 

[cdubz]

Forgot Bradshaw he had a nice run as a 7th round pick. In the past we have had hall of fame backs come out of the 6th round Terrell Davis comes to mind. I am sure there are many more 4th-7th round guys that have produced throughout the years. Is it likely ? Probably not but who seen Morris from last year coming and he is going in the 2nd round of startup drafts now. So if someone wants to take a shot with an early 2nd on Stacy why not ? I was laughing at a guy who took Morris at pick 1.10 last year...who is laughing now ?

What month was the draft where Morris went 1.10? If that was an early draft.....damn. Have to give the man props for that one.

 

[EBF]

I think the community of fantasy GMs put more stock in the opinions of pundits then they do in the work of the scouting teams and front office personnel of NFL teams. And it's a crazy-interesting dynamic. Both crazy and interesting...crazy in an interesting way and interesting in a crazy way.

I think that's part of it. When you hear for months that a guy like Johnathan Franklin is a second round talent, you start to think of him in those terms. When he falls to the fourth round of the actual NFL draft, there's probably a lingering impression in the back of your mind that says he should've gone higher (even if it's not actually true). I think that partially explains why guys like Franklin, Da'Rick, and Ellington are going a little higher than you'd expect based on their draft slot alone.

Situation and position are also a huge factor. A RB will usually be drafted ahead of a comparable WR/TE/QB, even in formats that don't necessarily encourage you to load up on backs. A RB with a shot at immediate playing time will be drafted ahead of a comparable RB with no short term outlook (i.e. Hillman vs. Pierce last year, Ball/Lacy/Bell vs. Michael this year).

At any rate, the inconsistencies that emerge from the whole process are really interesting to me. I don't mean that in any kind of a condescending way. I just find it interesting to see Knile Davis 15-20 picks later than Marcus Lattimore, or Chris Harper go undrafted in leagues where Johnathan Franklin is a top 12 pick, or Andre Ellington picked ahead of Stepfan Taylor. If nothing else, I think you have to take a closer look any time the rookie ADP is so far detached from NFL draft position and ask yourself if there isn't some overvaluing/undervaluing going on. Every case is unique and sometimes the community gets it right. Sometimes they don't.

As for McDonald, I don't think he's a lock superstar, but I agree that he should probably be ranked higher. I'd say the same for Escobar. They might not play a prestige position, but I'm not sure that justifies them going behind 5th-7th round RB/WR like they often do considering that both were drafted ahead of Ball/Lacy/Michael/Dobson/Lattimore/Franklin by the NFL.

 

[cdubz]

I think the community of fantasy GMs put more stock in the opinions of pundits then they do in the work of the scouting teams and front office personnel of NFL teams. And it's a crazy-interesting dynamic. Both crazy and interesting...crazy in an interesting way and interesting in a crazy way.

I think that's part of it. When you hear for months that a guy like Johnathan Franklin is a second round talent, you start to think of him in those terms. When he falls to the fourth round of the actual NFL draft, there's probably a lingering impression in the back of your mind that says he should've gone higher (even if it's not actually true). I think that partially explains why guys like Franklin, Da'Rick, and Ellington are going a little higher than you'd expect based on their draft slot alone.

I think this hits the nail on the head, I aggregated a bunch of pre-draft rookie rankings and Franklin was coming up 3rd. When he then drops, people think they are getting a discount on the 3rd best RB prospect.

One thing that is turning me off from him is that we will almost be 24 by the time the season starts - given RBs generally peak around 25-26 it doesn't give him a ton of time to win the starting gig and even if he does is still in the pass first offense.

The age factor might also play into the fantasy analyst evaluation vs. NFL evaluation - while on film he might look great, perhaps NFL teams look at his performance through the lens of being older than vast majority of competition and don't think he has as much room to improve.

 

[evanhp]

1st Round Completed: Bernard, Austin, B. Hopkins, M. Ball, Lacy, L. Bell, Patterson, Lattimore, Franklin, Stacy, Dobson, Eifert (my pick)

2nd Round so far: Joseph Randle (my pick), Arthur Brown (IDP), E.J Manuel, Sharif Floyd (IDP)