PPR dynasty draft- whats your 1st round look like? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

The mid-tier RB's burn bright but only for a short time (say Rudi Johnson as an example.) The mid-tier WR's last longer but give inconsistent "value" from year to year (Donald Driver is a good example, only 1 studly year at #5, 2 good years at #10, and quite a few ho-hum years where he wasn't any better than an average WR2 or 3.)

I think you're underrating the contributions that guys like Chris Chambers, Hines Ward, Laveranues Coles, Donald Driver, Muhsin Muhammad, and Santana Moss can make to a dynasty team. These aren't players who are going to carry your team on their back and give you reliable top 5 seasons, but they've been good for a long time. You can plug them into your WR2 or WR3 spot and generally get competitive production. Most of my PPR leagues start 3 WRs. That means 36 WRs are starting every week. A guy like Ward, who's typically going to give you top 15-25 ppg numbers every year, is a major asset in these leagues.A player doesn't have to be an all-world talent to be a part of sustained dynasty success. He just has to be good enough to keep his job and put up startable numbers. Those young WR2-WR3 types like Bowe, Royal, and Holmes have a ton of value in dynasty leagues because they're probably going to remain useful for as long as their bodies hold up.

 

[Biabreakable]

1. I hate PPR

2. While PPR does increase the scoring potential of some players due to the double dipping I do not agree with the idea that this makes WR the most important position, especially if RB are getting the PPR benifit also.

3. Starting 3 WR/2RB is what makes the WR more valuable moreso than the PPR.

4. There are more viable WR to roster than RB. Position scarcity still favors RB value because of this.

5. I think the PPR can be taken advantage of by buying low on older less attractive WR such as Mason who will be more competitive with the WR beasts like Andre, Fitz ect. than people might think because of the PPR. In a standard scoring league I think the elite WR are actualy more valuable because their TDs is what seperates them from the other WR moreso than the receptions do. PPR waters down the impact of TDs a lot.

6. I use a rotating 3 year window for my long term evaluation of players being able to maintain their performance. I do give some creedence to percieved value over actual production, but it seems like I do this less and less as time goes on.

Rankings non PPR off the top -

1. AD

2. SJAX

3. Andre

4. Fitz

5. Portis

6. LT

7. Randy Moss

8. Steve Smith

9. Colston

10. Tom Brady

11. Drew Brees

12. DeAngelo Williams (if not for Fox he would be up there with Portis and LT)

13. Calvin Johnson

14. Michael Turner

15. Gregg Jennings

16. Matt Forte

17. Reggie Wayne

18. MJD

19. Barber

20 Boldin

In PPR I would probably downgrade some of these WR in exchange for QB or RB because I believe I can fill part of my WR core with free agents/developmental players and be able to keep doing that every year.

 

[FUBAR]

3. Starting 3 WR/2RB is what makes the WR more valuable moreso than the PPR.

I suppose, but that's a pretty standard lineup I think. I've seen leagues where you can start no RBs and 6 WRs, and those where you start 3/3. HUGE difference in values there, but I think 2/3 is a pretty standard set - and by math, the RB is more scarce. Longevity is the key to this IMO, moreso than PPR or the lineup (here).

 

[Biabreakable]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

It does suprise me how little respect Portis gets when I think about him relative to other dominant RBs. He doesen't even get as much respect as CuMart used to get even though Portis has been just as consistent and has a higher upside. Portis has been playing a long time now so I think people think he is older than he is. Portis right now is 27 years old and in the prime of his career still. On September 1st Portis will turn 28 years old. I wouldn't think of trading Portis right now. He offers too much consistency at a inconsistent position and would be VERY hard to replace.

 

[Biabreakable]

3. Starting 3 WR/2RB is what makes the WR more valuable moreso than the PPR.

I suppose, but that's a pretty standard lineup I think. I've seen leagues where you can start no RBs and 6 WRs, and those where you start 3/3. HUGE difference in values there, but I think 2/3 is a pretty standard set - and by math, the RB is more scarce. Longevity is the key to this IMO, moreso than PPR or the lineup (here).

It is. You have to go to 4WR before things really even up scarcity wise.Longevity is important in dynasty but so is winning now. We had a decent discussion about these issues last season I think but the issue still needs more going over.I have noticed a subtle change in how my compitition values players and positions over the past couple years. Giving more value to WR and QB than they used to.I have been making money selling WRs to my compition since 2000 so the concept is not at all lost on me. But when I see the herd zig then I have to zag.

 

[thatguy]

Good question. There are a few different ways to approach a dynasty draft. If you just want to win now, then guys like Randy Moss and Brian Westbrook should be early considerations because they offer high PPG potential. However, I find that anyone near 30 years old has a crippled trade value, so I'm inclined to place a high premium on youth if for no other reason than because your leaguemates simply won't pay market value for older players. My list would be WR-heavy for two main reasons: WRs don't get hurt as often as RBs and there are simply more elite WRs than RBs in the league. 1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Greg Jennings4. Adrian Peterson5. Andre Johnson6. Brandon Marshall7. Eddie Royal8. Maurice Jones-Drew9. Steven Jackson10. Chris Johnson11. Reggie Wayne12. Steve Smith13. Anquan Boldin14. Frank Gore15. Marques Colston16. Randy Moss

I love Royal, but I'm scratching my head at him as the 7th overall pick, ahead of MJD and SJax, and frankly most of the other guys below him. He should be on the bottom of your top 16 if anything, and I'd probably prefer Bowe to him as well.

 

[kremenull]

These are some of the most unrealistic draft projections I've ever seen....PPR or not, this many WRs in the top 16 or so picks is just ludicrous.....especially at the top of the draft like that......Are u guys kidding or something?

Have you been in a ppr dynasty draft lately or tried to trade for a young stud WR in that type of league?

Sure have, all I play is PPR.....joined 3 new ones this past season in addition to the previous 4 that I already had.......I love WRs as much as the next guy in PPR, but in the 1st Rd, especially at the top of the draft, a WR would not even get consideration from me until at least Pick #8 or so. You can have all of the 2nd/3rd tier RBs in the late 2nd-early 3rd all you want and I'd gladly gobble up the stud RBs early on and take my chances with my upswing WRs in the 3rd-5th Rds......when you know how to uncover the likes of Braylon, Bowe, Roddy, and V-Jax over the past couple of seasons, I don't worry about getting WRs too much. Sure, Fitz is a rare breed and I've either owned him or currently do in several of my dynasties, but the #1 overall selection in ANY fantasy format....No way Jose!When you guys start another (PPR) dynasty, please let me in so I can "clean up" in there......

 

[gianmarco]

When you guys start another (PPR) dynasty, please let me in so I can "clean up" in there......

One of my favorite FBG lines that we get to see so often. Yeah, I'm sure you'll "clean up" against some of the likes of the posters in here because you're quite advanced.....

 

[Biabreakable]

When you guys start another (PPR) dynasty, please let me in so I can "clean up" in there......

One of my favorite FBG lines that we get to see so often. Yeah, I'm sure you'll "clean up" against some of the likes of the posters in here because you're quite advanced.....

Hey he did use the hophead so I don't think he is serious.

 

[gorf]

When you guys start another (PPR) dynasty, please let me in so I can "clean up" in there......

One of my favorite FBG lines that we get to see so often. Yeah, I'm sure you'll "clean up" against some of the likes of the posters in here because you're quite advanced.....

Hey he did use the hophead so I don't think he is serious.

when i use the hophead, it means i'm deadly serious.

 

[Mainevent]

It seems pretty much impossible in my PPR dynasty league (Zealot scoring) to trade for a top notch WR, or top notch QB. We have 1QB/2RB/3WR, plus a flex at QB/RB/WR starting (RBs are 0.5 PPR). Even young WRs with high ceilings are impossible to get, I tried to trade Wayne for Jennings/2nd and it got turned down. I do have Wayne/Boldin/Walter/Ward... the price Crabtree (1.1) is fetching is high, may go for BEdwards, and a late first next year.

 

[Max Power]

It wasn't that long ago when most dynasty formats over-valued RB's, it seems we've gone from one extreme to another. Perhaps the 3 WR + full PPR format needs to be rethought.

To me, the main issue is that I can't look at many RBs in the NFL and say with any confidence that they'll be producing 3 years from now. I would take someone like Westbrook, Gore, or Jackson in the top 5 of a redraft league, but there's too much turnover at the RB position for me to get excited about investing a top 10 dynasty pick in one of those guys.Three years from now they'll be broken down and untradeable like LJ, LT, Alexander, and Portis (who isn't even broken down but still won't fetch squat in a dynasty trade).

RB's are just grossly over-rated in dynasty leagues. There are only a couple who are young and who you can count on year to year, and even those guys are at a higher risk of injury then WR's due to the hits a RB takes.

Even in non-ppr i would take the top 3-5 WR's over any RB outside of ADP.

It's easy to fill in the RB spot for cheap in a dynasty by picking up the older vets you mentioned for dirt cheap. Or grabbing the one year fill in guys for even cheaper.

Building around stud young WR's is the way to manage a dynasty team, don't invest a lot in the RB position.

Really? I'd like to hear some examples. The late 20's RB seem untradeable as owners will never get what their current value dictates and not many 30+ backs are startable.

Agree. Looking at this year, those older vets were Lewis and Dunn. I doubt anybody was very comfortable with them as their starters.

Thomas Jones had a pretty good year.

And he wasn't dirt cheap. In addition, it's very easy with hindsight. I imagine very few saw that at the beginning of the year and even fewer went into the year comfortable with him being their #1.

Jones was dirt cheap before this year. One guy in my home league tried to trade him away and could not get a 2nd rounder for him. He is glad he did not in the endI agree with the WR debate here. Even though I also would not trade for Eddie Royal. But than I dont get the Drew Jones love either.

Once the Jets signed Faneca, I don't Jones was dirt cheap anymore. After Favre came on board Jones was not cheap at all.Besides the point is that I could have had..Rudi, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Edge, Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister, Ect... all for dirt cheap. And where would I be had I needed one of these guys to put up RB2 numbers?

 

[SproutDaddy]

1. I hate PPR2. While PPR does increase the scoring potential of some players due to the double dipping I do not agree with the idea that this makes WR the most important position, especially if RB are getting the PPR benifit also.3. Starting 3 WR/2RB is what makes the WR more valuable moreso than the PPR.4. There are more viable WR to roster than RB. Position scarcity still favors RB value because of this.5. I think the PPR can be taken advantage of by buying low on older less attractive WR such as Mason who will be more competitive with the WR beasts like Andre, Fitz ect. than people might think because of the PPR. In a standard scoring league I think the elite WR are actualy more valuable because their TDs is what seperates them from the other WR moreso than the receptions do. PPR waters down the impact of TDs a lot.6. I use a rotating 3 year window for my long term evaluation of players being able to maintain their performance. I do give some creedence to percieved value over actual production, but it seems like I do this less and less as time goes on.Rankings non PPR off the top -1. AD2. SJAX3. Andre4. Fitz5. Portis6. LT7. Randy Moss8. Steve Smith9. Colston10. Tom Brady11. Drew Brees12. DeAngelo Williams (if not for Fox he would be up there with Portis and LT)13. Calvin Johnson14. Michael Turner15. Gregg Jennings16. Matt Forte17. Reggie Wayne18. MJD19. Barber20 BoldinIn PPR I would probably downgrade some of these WR in exchange for QB or RB because I believe I can fill part of my WR core with free agents/developmental players and be able to keep doing that every year.

Chris Johnson should be somewhere in anyone's top 20.

 

[Biabreakable]

1. I hate PPR2. While PPR does increase the scoring potential of some players due to the double dipping I do not agree with the idea that this makes WR the most important position, especially if RB are getting the PPR benifit also.3. Starting 3 WR/2RB is what makes the WR more valuable moreso than the PPR.4. There are more viable WR to roster than RB. Position scarcity still favors RB value because of this.5. I think the PPR can be taken advantage of by buying low on older less attractive WR such as Mason who will be more competitive with the WR beasts like Andre, Fitz ect. than people might think because of the PPR. In a standard scoring league I think the elite WR are actualy more valuable because their TDs is what seperates them from the other WR moreso than the receptions do. PPR waters down the impact of TDs a lot.6. I use a rotating 3 year window for my long term evaluation of players being able to maintain their performance. I do give some creedence to percieved value over actual production, but it seems like I do this less and less as time goes on.Rankings non PPR off the top -1. AD2. SJAX3. Andre4. Fitz5. Portis6. LT7. Randy Moss8. Steve Smith9. Colston10. Tom Brady11. Drew Brees12. DeAngelo Williams (if not for Fox he would be up there with Portis and LT)13. Calvin Johnson14. Michael Turner15. Gregg Jennings16. Matt Forte17. Reggie Wayne18. MJD19. Barber20 BoldinIn PPR I would probably downgrade some of these WR in exchange for QB or RB because I believe I can fill part of my WR core with free agents/developmental players and be able to keep doing that every year.

Chris Johnson should be somewhere in anyone's top 20.

You could put him in where I have Forte. I have not seen as much of him as Forte and I only have one rookie in my top 20.Lendale White and continued RBBC does concern me when it comes to Johnson. It isn't a huge concern but it isn't an issue with Forte. Johnson may be more talented than Forte but situation does matter.JMO

 

[Finatic]

1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Greg Jennings4. Adrian Peterson5. Andre Johnson6. Brandon Marshall7. Eddie Royal8. Maurice Jones-Drew9. Steven Jackson10. Chris Johnson11. Reggie Wayne12. Steve Smith13. Anquan Boldin14. Frank Gore15. Marques Colston16. Randy Moss

I think Jennings is too high. Think he's below #13 on this list.No Roddy White?Eddie Royal, but no Welker? I think DEF are wise to Royal and Welker gets Brady back.No Housh? Look at what he did with a terrible QB in 2008 and I think he's back in the top 15 for sure.

Jennings is underappreciated. All he's done since entering the league is produce. With Driver on the downslope of his career and Rodgers on the cusp of becoming an elite passer, I think Jennings is poised to become a perennial top 5 threat like Reggie Wayne. He's a franchise player in PPR dynasty and well worth a top 5-10 pick. I like Roddy White and would consider him in the 10-20 range. Royal is a budding star with top notch physical tools and a great QB. He doesn't have the upside of AJ or S. Smith, but he's going to be very good for a long time. Definitely a nucleus player in PPR. I think Welker derives a lot of his value from the system. I don't see him as an elite player, so even though he's had two great years in a row, I wouldn't personally want to make him a cornerstone of my FF team. Housh will turn 32 next season and isn't even the best WR on his own team. He doesn't belong in this discussion.

EBF, I would love to get your long term outlook for Royal after the Cutler trade.Do you still have him slotted in the top ten in an initial dynasty draft after the trade of Cutler.

 

[EBF]

EBF, I would love to get your long term outlook for Royal after the Cutler trade.Do you still have him slotted in the top ten in an initial dynasty draft after the trade of Cutler.

Talent is talent. I probably had him too high in the first place and I think the Cutler trade hurts his value, but he's still a good player who should contribute for a long time if he stays healthy.

 

[Biabreakable]

EBF, I would love to get your long term outlook for Royal after the Cutler trade.Do you still have him slotted in the top ten in an initial dynasty draft after the trade of Cutler.

Talent is talent. I probably had him too high in the first place and I think the Cutler trade hurts his value, but he's still a good player who should contribute for a long time if he stays healthy.

The offensive scheme should continue to support him as well. Even Orton can run a decent screen game.

 

[Steed]

I think this thread was responsible for Eddie Royal getting drafted in the 2nd round of a lot of dynasty start-ups I witnessed.

Royal's a nice PPR player, but I'd be surprised if he ever gets double digit TDs in his career. I'm still looking for that in the 2nd.

 

[sportsmonkey_j]

Anthony Thomas? I can see that with Forte and his 3.9 yards per carry. Thomas had a career avg of 3.7, with 4.3 being his career high. By contrast, Slaton averaged 4.8 yards per carry and showed moves and vision that the elite rbs have. Thomas had no moves. he would run up the back of his blockers and could only run straight forward.

Look at these highlights of Slaton last year. Its sick. Watch how he sheds off the Titans players and makes a huge gain. Hes everything Bush was supposed to be but isnt.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JFqO4mYjSc

I don't have enough faith in Forte and Slaton to take them this high. You have to give them credit for having great rookie years, but I think there's still some Anthony Thomas risk with those two. I feel a little bit more secure about Chris Johnson because he was a higher draft pick and he's a much freakier athlete (elite combine numbers).

 

[lynx4ben]

My top-16 goes like this:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Maurice Jones-Drew(could make a case for him being #1)

3. Chris Johnson

4. Larry Fitzgerald

5. Steven Jackson

6. Frank Gore

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Drew Brees(QBs are underrated in PPR)

9. Andre Johnson

10. Michael Turner(underrated in PPR leagues)

11. Reggie Wayne(should be much better without Marvin)

12. DeAngelo Williams

13. Marshawn Lynch(I'm still expecting a big breakout from him)

14. Matt Forte

15. Roddy White

16. Brandon Marshall(he'd be higher if not for potential off field issues)

I agree. I still think I would rather go RB early as I can find more depth at WR in the later rounds. Once the backs are gone they are gone. Chances are I can find a few startable WRs in rounds 5-10. I don't want to hang my hat on the RBs that are there at that time. The WR position just feels deeper to me. Esp with the 'average starter talent'. It seems at RB after the tier 1/2 guys it thins out way to fast. That's why draft strategy I'm still thinking RB.BTW: I have a startup dynasty with three spots open. We can debate this for real on the 27th.

More info: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=463403

 

[jwb]

1. Larry Fitz

2. Calvin

3. ADP

4. MJD

5. CJ3

6. AJ

7. Jax

That's kind of a first tier for me. The core, "build around" guys. Guys you will likely get 5+ years of healthy production from. The rest of my first is interchangable (take these guys anywhere from 8-12):

Turner

Bowe

Royal

Roddy W

Jennings

I would pick any of those above guys, in a Dynasty PPR startup, before Gore, Forte, Wayne, Dwill, Lynch, etc. I'd kind of like Boldin in the top 12 too, but can't see him over anyone listed. Maybe Turner.

Yes, I'm bullish on WR's, and yes, I like really Royal as a solid player for years to come. Hence him being in my first round. But that's been done to death here.

Have a nice Easter, everyone.