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Predict the final game of the regular season (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Yogibear
- Start date
Dolphins and Bills will close season on NBC next Sunday night.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Saturday games are Steelers-Ravens and Texans-Colts
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Unless the Lions lose along the way. Four divisional games - always a possibility. At 49ers - who knows where they are at in 5 weeks. Vs Bills, probably the best team in the AFC.
#1 seed feels a long, long ways away. Have to keep stacking dubs just to win the division, both the Packers and Vikings are really good teams and are not going away on their own. Bears always play us tough.
Right now I'm worried about how to beat Chicago. Detroit has not won on Thanksgiving since 2016.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
DET-MINN does seem the most likely, along with one of the two NFC West games (SF-AZ or LAR-SEA). The problem is that you need the right two playing each other for the division, with the other two eliminated.
Yogibear
Footballguy
Both the Vikings and the Lions have some interesting games coming up toward the end of the season. For the Lions, their toughest game comes next week when the Bills come to town. For the Vikings, it seems like their toughest game remaining on the schedule comes in two weeks when they travel to Seattle. I can't see the Lions losing to Buffalo, but I can see the Vikings going down against the Seahawks. So, it looks like if the final game of the season IS NOT Vikings-Lions for the NFC North, then it will probably be Rams-Seahawks for the NFC West.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
I'll say it's Seahawks vs Rams with win and in and lose and go home scenario.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I saw this before Sunday and thought, "What about Arizona?" But after yesterday, it's certainly looking like those are the two teams to beat. A lot will depend on what happens this Thursday with Rams-Niners.
As far as Lions-Vikings, one thing to keep in mind is that if each teams wins their next three. Lions will clinch the division (and I believe the bye) via tiebreaker, so Week 18 will be meaningless. Then again, they both have some tough matchups in their next three (Lions: Bills/@Chi/@SF; Vikings: Chi/@Sea/GB) so no guarantee either wins out.
Also, we know from a few years back that the NFL will simply not have an SNF game if there's nothing with enough at stake for both teams. If neither of these two matchups pan out, hard to see any other Week 18 games being considered.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
No, they’ve made it pretty clear they won’t flex a game without playoff stakes. A couple years ago they gambled on Det-GB and technically “lost”, although I’ve always suspected they made it clear to both teams not to lay down in that game. In any event, the Lions tried hard even though they were already eliminated and won a thriller.
But if Detroit had already clinched the bye there’s zero chance the Minn game gets flexed
What is the next tie breaker? If Vikes beat Det week 18 they would have split H2H. Is it division record or conference record or ?????? as next tie break?
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Two Clubs
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Two Clubs
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
I think it would come down to that third tie-breaker. MIN lost to the Rams, and DET beat them. Meanwhile, DET's only loss was to TB (who MIN doesn't play). So, if they both win out, and MIN beats DET, they would be tied, tied HTH, tied within division, but DET would have the better record of common games.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
I think it's unlikely that both win out until Week 18. Not impossible, but if I had to put money on it, I'd say at least one (if not both) slip up somewhere.
Of course, if you look at the game in which each of them might be most likely to struggle, it's probably DET hosting BUF this week, and MIN traveling to SEA in a couple of weeks. If they were both to hypothetically lose those games, we would still be in the same position. Even if MIN beat DET in Week 18 in that scenario, DET would have already clinched (since BUF is not a common opponent, and SEA is). In fact, it would just make DET's record among common opponents that much better (since they would have then beaten both LAR and SEA, and MIN would have lost to both).
Bottom line for MIN... It's not impossible for them to win the North. But, they likely need to not only win out, but also have DET slip up somewhere else before Week 18.
Of course, if you look at the game in which each of them might be most likely to struggle, it's probably DET hosting BUF this week, and MIN traveling to SEA in a couple of weeks. If they were both to hypothetically lose those games, we would still be in the same position. Even if MIN beat DET in Week 18 in that scenario, DET would have already clinched (since BUF is not a common opponent, and SEA is). In fact, it would just make DET's record among common opponents that much better (since they would have then beaten both LAR and SEA, and MIN would have lost to both).
Bottom line for MIN... It's not impossible for them to win the North. But, they likely need to not only win out, but also have DET slip up somewhere else before Week 18.
Well, if Det holds the tie break over Min then of course they would need Detroit to lose another game making the week 18 matchup for all the marbles.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
True. I think I made that statement backwards or something along those lines. What I meant to say was.... In order for MIN to have any shot of winning the division, they need to not only beat DET in Week 18, they likely need to win out prior to that for it to matter. In other words, the likelihood of DET faltering twice prior to that is small.
Could happen, I suppose, but they'd have to lose two of their next three, between hosting BUF, @CHI, and @SF.
If Detroit loses one game before week 18 (so one game of the next three) and Minny wins out (including beating Det W18) then Minny gets the division by a game. No tie breaker needed.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Right. I'm saying that, for MIN to win the division without winning out, DET would not have to lose once, but twice (in addition to losing Week 18). Which really means DET would need to lose 3 of their next 4.
I guess a simple way of looking at it is that DET needs to lose two more games than MIN, in the next four weeks, for MIN to win the division. And it doesn't matter which of the four games either loses. But, maybe I'm stating the obvious.
that is wrong. If the Vikes win out they finish with two losses. If the Lions lose two more (including the one to Minny) they will have three losses.
ETA: I missed the first half of your first paragraph about Minny not winning out. We are saying the same thing. I was just going with the fact the Vikes have to win out. No more losses if they hope for the division but then they still need help even if they win out.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Actually, in that case it wouldn’t even get to common opponents. Since one of Detroit’s losses would be to an AFC team, that would mean they had a better conference record among NFC teams (11-1 vs 10-2).
The only way Detroit-Minnesota can be for the division is if they enter Week 18 with the same records, or if Detroit loses to Chicago while Minnesota beats them, since that would give the Lions another division loss. Not sure what would happen if they lose to SF, which Minnesota already beat, but keep in mind that the next round of tiebreakers involves strength of victory, where Detroit’s mid season stompings of DAL/TENN/JAX would come into play
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
No worries. I think I was making it more complicated than it is. No matter who wins Week 18, DET holds the tie-breaker. And, given the common opponents factor, who either team beats (or loses to) going forward doesn't change that (DET holding the tie-breaker). All of their remaining opponents are common. So, it all boils down to simple math.... MIN must have less losses than DET, by season's end, to win the division.
All I was trying to say was that, given the above, any more losses by MIN makes their road to winning the North very difficult. It essentially means DET needs to lose 3 of 4, which I don't think any of us see happening.
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
True.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I agree with Hank’s logic, but the slothful dilettante is correct that the nfl has shown that they have a pretty high bar for the stakes in this final game and are willing to skip it if the stakes are not high enough
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Edit: The NFL rules explicitly state that if two WC teams are from the same division, use the Division tie-breaker so you were right:
This is what they would use.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
That doesn't preclude the game having playoff implications.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Yes but if Detroit is locked into the No. 1 seed they will want to rest their starters, and the league won't want to put that on prime time
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
I am going with Seahawks vs Rams for NFC West title on the line!
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's not at all safe to assume any part of that. Dan Campbell isn't one to go easy on a football game, and definitely not against a division rival that they may or may not be able to knock out entirely. And as you yourself noted, the last time they did that they ended up with a thriller.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
There's a difference between a team playing its last game of the season going all out to beat its rival and a banged-up team gearing up for a deep playoff run. Also, if Detroit is locked into the 1-seed, that most likely means Minnesota is locked into the 5-seed, or at best, is teetering between the 5 and 6. No way the league wants to put a low-stakes game that on prime time.
They've been doing this for 15 years (and let's not forget that the origin of the final-game flex was a Bengals-Jets game where Cinci was locked into its playoff position and lay down, allowing the Jets to clinch their spot). Find me one game in that entire timeframe that had zero/minor stakes and was done solely because it was viewed as two marquee teams.
Yogibear
Footballguy
I can't see the Vikings losing to the Bears tomorrow night. I feel whoever wins the Vikings-Seahawks game next week will win the Week 18 Sunday night game for their division because I can't see the Lions or Rams losing their next two games. Am I wrong to assume that whoever wins next week between Minnesota and Seattle will win the Week 18 Sunday night game?
rockaction
Footballguy
Doesn’t anybody remember the prime time game where the Eagles played the Washington Football Team and took Jalen Hurts out to get a look a Nate Sudfeld, thereby gaining about four points of position in the NFL Draft and costing the Joe Judge-led Giants a playoff spot? That was just three years ago.
NFL does what it wants with the final game of the regular season, playoff implications be damned. In that case they went for a division rivalry game instead of two that could have played and been a play-in game, so . . . they’ve done it before.
NFL does what it wants with the final game of the regular season, playoff implications be damned. In that case they went for a division rivalry game instead of two that could have played and been a play-in game, so . . . they’ve done it before.
rockaction
Footballguy
See above. Three years ago. Philadelphia and Washington. The only playoff implications it had were for the Giants.
-OZ-
Footballguy
The lions aren’t playing in that game, but if you just mean will play in the final SNF, agreed.
Insein
Footballguy
That was 4 years ago now. It was in the abysmal year of 2020.
rockaction
Footballguy
Thought the date said 2021, but you could be right.
Insein
Footballguy
Might have been Jan 2021
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
That's not correct. IIRC there were no other clear win-and-in games that week, so they gambled that Was-Phi would be (exact same scenario as two years later with GB-Det). If the Giants had lost to Dallas, WFT-Eagles would have been for the division. That's also why I'm convinced that before they scheduled that Packers-Lions game, they went to Detroit and made them promise to go all out no matter what, which probably wasn't a hard sell to Campbell.
I still maintain there's a difference between going all out in a game you know is your last of the season and resting up for the playoffs. I don't think they put the Lions on SNF if they've locked up the 1-seed before Week 18 (which is now looking unlikely anyway).
By the way, for all the crap Philly took, that loss ended up giving them the draft position to take DSmith and two years later they were in the Super Bowl
rockaction
Footballguy
Miami-Buffalo. That’s why the NFL took so much heat for the game. Miami was 10-5. Win and they were in. Instead, they lost and they were out. Cleveland was the closest to them and they beat Pittsburgh that day. In fact, there was a logjam of 10-5 teams in the AFC that Sunday.
Anyway, memory is often faulty, but I recall the NFL taking guff for the Miami option. It’s not necessarily worth going into a ton, but I’m pretty sure I both recall it and the standings back it up (conference records).
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ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I definitely remember that Miami game, but I don't recall all the playoff permutations. But it definitely wasn't win-and-in for Buffalo, who had already clinched the AFC East.
Anyway, I'm not saying ratings are never considered. I believe the same year as the GB-Det game there was a Jax-Tenn matchup for the division that they put on Saturday night instead of Sunday, presumably because the AFC South is ratings poison. Similarly, last year Miami-Buffalo was for the division but both teams were already in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Houston-Indy was an elimination game,; they went with the former. But I still can't see them deliberately choosing a game that they know ahead of time has zero stakes for one or both teams, solely due to ratings
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Yogibear
Footballguy
After today's action, it's looking more and more like the last game of the season is going to be Vikings-Lions for the NFC North and home field throughout the NFC playoffs. I can't think of a scenario where it's not. The only way the Week18 Sunday night game is going to be Seahawks-Rams is if the Seahawks beat the Bears on Thursday, the Rams lose to the Cardinals on Sunday and either the Vikings lose to the Packers next Sunday or the Lions lose to the 49ers next Monday night. Other than that, it looks like it's going to be Winner Take All between the Vikings and the Lions.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Nope. Lions can clinch NFCN/No. 1 seed next week, but Vikings can't. Even if the Vikings go a game up on Detroit, if the Lions beat them in Week 18 they sweep the season series and therefore win any tiebreaker. Meanwhile, if Minnesota loses to GB next week and Detroit wins, Lions clinch based on having a better divisional record.
Also, even if Seahawks/Rams ends up being for the division, it's pretty clear that, given the choice, NFL/NBC will go with Lions-Vikes. It would be the first final SNF game for the No. 1 seed since the Niners beat Seattle in 2019
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
IF Pittsburgh manages to beat KC and Buffalo takes care of business versus the Jets and the Bengals manage to beat the Broncos I can very easily see them making the final game KC vs Denver.
A slim chance the game counts for nothing but more likely at least 1 of:
Buffalo beats NE again to make KC need the game for the bye.
Indy, Miami, and/or the Bengals have a chance to get to 9 wins which would force Denver to win to make it.
A lot has to fall in place of course but I think NBC would want that game if KC and/or Denver probably need it.
-QG
A slim chance the game counts for nothing but more likely at least 1 of:
Buffalo beats NE again to make KC need the game for the bye.
Indy, Miami, and/or the Bengals have a chance to get to 9 wins which would force Denver to win to make it.
A lot has to fall in place of course but I think NBC would want that game if KC and/or Denver probably need it.
-QG
