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Predict the final game of the regular season (1 Viewer)

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
The NFL plans to announce the rest of the Week 18 schedule after or during tomorrow night's Bills-Bengals game.

A Cincy loss would mean the Week 18 Ravens-Bengals game is for the AFC North Title. Would imagine the NFL likely would want that on SNF.

Bengals win then I think they pivot to Detroit at Green Bay.
 

Long Ball Larry

Footballguy
If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?
The NFL cares about ratings much much more than competitive balance
Certainly true, though historically they have focused much more on the stakes of the games for these week 18 matchups. But I do think they probably have out too much stock in that because teams and markets and individual stars drive ratings more.
 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
So how is the last AFC spot shaping up with those three teams sitting at 8-8.
Which team (if any) controls their own destiny?
 

nysfl2

Footballguy
If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?
The NFL cares about ratings much much more than competitive balance
Certainly true, though historically they have focused much more on the stakes of the games for these week 18 matchups. But I do think they probably have out too much stock in that because teams and markets and individual stars drive ratings more.
Right - selling Aaron Rodgers in a win-and-get-in game in what could be his last game in a Packers uniform seems like a narrative that the NFL would love
 

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
So how is the last AFC spot shaping up with those three teams sitting at 8-8.
Which team (if any) controls their own destiny?

Patriots control their destiny. Win and in.
Also make it if they lose, Dolphins lose, Steelers lose and Jaguars win.

Dolphins next in line. Need win and Patriots loss.

Steelers in line after that. Need win and Patriots and Dolphins losses.

Jaguars (if they lose on Saturday) are next in line and would make it if they lose and Patriots lose and Dolphins lose and Steelers lose.

-QG
 

steeler6

Footballguy
So how is the last AFC spot shaping up with those three teams sitting at 8-8.
Which team (if any) controls their own destiny?

Patriots control their destiny. Win and in.
Also make it if they lose, Dolphins lose, Steelers lose and Jaguars win.

Dolphins next in line. Need win and Patriots loss.

Steelers in line after that. Need win and Patriots and Dolphins losses.

Jaguars (if they lose on Saturday) are next in line and would make it if they lose and Patriots lose and Dolphins lose and Steelers lose.

-QG
I could easily see this happening.
 

Long Ball Larry

Footballguy
If I could put a bet down on Cincy I would because this suggests to me the league thinks the Bengals are going to win tonight.
If the bengals win tonight, it means the chiefs can lock up the 1 seed on Saturday, making it a lot more likely that New England wins, which screws the Steelers and dolphins. Maybe there weren’t a lot of good choices in general, but seems like a lot of these did not try to mitigate timing effects. Should have put Dallas on Saturday, but maybe fox gets to protect some.
 

nysfl2

Footballguy
Seahawks got screwed
I wouldn't worry about it. Next to playing for a playoff spot themselves, there's nothing the Lions would rather do than knock green Bay out. Campbell will still have them biting kneecaps, whatever Seattle does earlier in the day.
 

The Dude

Footballguy
If Seattle wins is there any value to the lion-packers game?

lions packers should have been Saturday night with jags titans on Sunday
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Seahawks got screwed
How so?
By playing before DET-GB, a Seahawks win eliminates the Lions, lowering their motivation, thereby increasing the chances of a Packers win. The two games should have been played at the same time

This argument has merit.

If the situation were reversed, I think Lions would feel the same way. Just to state the obvious...

Let's pretend the Cardinals don't suck donkey balls under KK. Kyler has had a decent year in this pretend scenario, offense is humming like crazy, with a not quite as good defense, and they're traveling to Lumen Field.

(ASIDE - the analogy falls apart here bc the Hawks don't own the Cards for decades like the Pack has the Lions, and road teams in the ARI-SEA rivalry have won 14 of the last 20 meetings. I digress...)

Meanwhile Detroit, in this hypothetical, is at home against the hapless Bears. All 3 teams have the same record, but with a win Detroit loses the tiebreaker to Hawks - but they're in if the Cards prevail. Then the NFL announces the Lions-Bears will be an afternoon game, but Cardinals at the Seahawks will be the feature SNF finale. I would be pretty bummed out, knowing the challenge was lessened if we 1) won the easier game, and then 2) the Cardinals were going to play knowing they could not get into the playoffs.

You def have a legitimate beef.

Now, that said....to address the bolded...

This is a massively important game for the Lions. Not for playoff implications, though that might end up being part of the story.

They're playing a meaningful final game for the first time since 2017. There is exactly one player on the roster who was on their last playoff loser (2016.) Detroit is the 2nd youngest team in the NFL, and by a WIDE MARGIN, rookies play more defensive snaps than any other team. Most of their playmakers are Y1/Y2 guys. These last 9 games (7-2) have been so important to their development. Other than Goff, Brockers and a couple other guys, nobody on the roster has playoff experience. They don't even know what it's like to be in the fight. They are learning as they go.

We are nobody's rival; other teams don't even think about us. But the Packers are, by a good margin, the biggest rival of the Lions. They have beaten us like a drum for decades. They have ruled the roost in the NFC North (neé NFC Central) for nearly 30 years. We are the freaking doormats of the league and the players are sick of it.

There is nobody Detroit wants to beat more than Green Bay. Frankly, there is no player they want to beat more than Aaron Rodgers. He's one of the best to ever play the position, he's historically been great late in the year at home, and he loves to needle his rivals. He's made comments this year that have the Lions pretty fired up. They're being smart/respectful, not giving the media anything that can get twisted in print. But trust me, this game means everything. Playoffs are ancillary.

Dan Cambell said he wouldn't want it any other way. They've been the best in the division since before he was playing for the Lions. Rodgers has been the undisputed King of the North since his first year as a starter. They're playing well in all three phases. Reporter asked him yesterday, "I know you preach each week is it's own entity, every game preparation is unique but you treat them all the same, all the games mean the same in the standings. How do approach the preparation for this week, knowing you don't want to make it seem too weighty." Oh, you tell em. This IS BIG. This is our playoffs. Hey man, it's win and we're in, or win and keep them out. THIS IS OUR PLAYOFF GAME and they're gonna know that all week.

I get your concern and if the shoe was on the other foot I might feel the same way. But trust....MCDC will have them motivated regardless.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Seahawks got screwed
How so?
By playing before DET-GB, a Seahawks win eliminates the Lions, lowering their motivation, thereby increasing the chances of a Packers win. The two games should have been played at the same time
Ah, good point. Well, if it's any consolation to Seahawks fans, the Lions have a looooooong history of blowing late-season games to the Packers when the stakes actually were high, so I see no reason to assume they'd do any worse when they weren't. :lol:

All kidding aside, I wonder if the delay in announcing the SNF game was due to the league needing to get assurances from the Lions that they would go all out regardless. And really, there's no reason to think that they wouldn't. When the Eagles bailed on their game a couple years ago, they were playing out the string with a coach who was about to be fired. The Lions, on the other hand, are building something, and Campbell knows that winning a prime-time game in Lambeau and knocking the Packers out of the playoffs would be a big part of that building process. I mean, the pregame speech in that scenario practically writes itself
 

Hooper31

Footballguy
Seahawks got screwed

This was a situation where there was a no-brainer objective decision to make, and the NFL opted to go another way. I wouldn’t expect any explanation.

It makes it worse that they set themselves up by not determining any start times for the final week ahead of time. In the end it didn’t matter. They WANT to give the impression that they believe in objective fairness, but when given the opportunity to follow through they show where their priorities are located.
 

Keith R

The Don
Seahawks got screwed

This was a situation where there was a no-brainer objective decision to make, and the NFL opted to go another way. I wouldn’t expect any explanation.

It makes it worse that they set themselves up by not determining any start times for the final week ahead of time. In the end it didn’t matter. They WANT to give the impression that they believe in objective fairness, but when given the opportunity to follow through they show where their priorities are located.
Meaning they want the Packers in the playoffs. You're absolutely right. How much easier and fairer would it have been to have TEN-JAX as the final game?
 

Penguin

Footballguy
I have a good friend (NFL employee) that told me this was the Sunday night matchup about 2 hours before it was officially released, I didn't want to post in this thread as it would be unfair.
 

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