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Predict the final game of the regular season (1 Viewer)

The NFL plans to announce the rest of the Week 18 schedule after or during tomorrow night's Bills-Bengals game.

A Cincy loss would mean the Week 18 Ravens-Bengals game is for the AFC North Title. Would imagine the NFL likely would want that on SNF.

Bengals win then I think they pivot to Detroit at Green Bay.
 
If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?
The NFL cares about ratings much much more than competitive balance
Certainly true, though historically they have focused much more on the stakes of the games for these week 18 matchups. But I do think they probably have out too much stock in that because teams and markets and individual stars drive ratings more.
 
So how is the last AFC spot shaping up with those three teams sitting at 8-8.
Which team (if any) controls their own destiny?
 
If the concept of competitive balance exists in knowing whether or not your game means anything the LAR-SEA game has to happen at the same time as the DET-GB game.

If SEA wins it then means DET has nothing to play for giving GB an advantage. Again, this has to mean you believe that knowing your playoff status affects how you play.

Personally, I can’t believe the NFL would put themselves in this position. Otherwise, what’s the point of delaying the ENTIRE NFL schedule for the last week? Isn’t it to avoid this exact situation?
The NFL cares about ratings much much more than competitive balance
Certainly true, though historically they have focused much more on the stakes of the games for these week 18 matchups. But I do think they probably have out too much stock in that because teams and markets and individual stars drive ratings more.
Right - selling Aaron Rodgers in a win-and-get-in game in what could be his last game in a Packers uniform seems like a narrative that the NFL would love
 
So how is the last AFC spot shaping up with those three teams sitting at 8-8.
Which team (if any) controls their own destiny?

Patriots control their destiny. Win and in.
Also make it if they lose, Dolphins lose, Steelers lose and Jaguars win.

Dolphins next in line. Need win and Patriots loss.

Steelers in line after that. Need win and Patriots and Dolphins losses.

Jaguars (if they lose on Saturday) are next in line and would make it if they lose and Patriots lose and Dolphins lose and Steelers lose.

-QG
 
So how is the last AFC spot shaping up with those three teams sitting at 8-8.
Which team (if any) controls their own destiny?

Patriots control their destiny. Win and in.
Also make it if they lose, Dolphins lose, Steelers lose and Jaguars win.

Dolphins next in line. Need win and Patriots loss.

Steelers in line after that. Need win and Patriots and Dolphins losses.

Jaguars (if they lose on Saturday) are next in line and would make it if they lose and Patriots lose and Dolphins lose and Steelers lose.

-QG
I could easily see this happening.
 
If I could put a bet down on Cincy I would because this suggests to me the league thinks the Bengals are going to win tonight.
If the bengals win tonight, it means the chiefs can lock up the 1 seed on Saturday, making it a lot more likely that New England wins, which screws the Steelers and dolphins. Maybe there weren’t a lot of good choices in general, but seems like a lot of these did not try to mitigate timing effects. Should have put Dallas on Saturday, but maybe fox gets to protect some.
 
Seahawks got screwed
I wouldn't worry about it. Next to playing for a playoff spot themselves, there's nothing the Lions would rather do than knock green Bay out. Campbell will still have them biting kneecaps, whatever Seattle does earlier in the day.
 
If Seattle wins is there any value to the lion-packers game?

lions packers should have been Saturday night with jags titans on Sunday
 
Seahawks got screwed
How so?
By playing before DET-GB, a Seahawks win eliminates the Lions, lowering their motivation, thereby increasing the chances of a Packers win. The two games should have been played at the same time

This argument has merit.

If the situation were reversed, I think Lions would feel the same way. Just to state the obvious...

Let's pretend the Cardinals don't suck donkey balls under KK. Kyler has had a decent year in this pretend scenario, offense is humming like crazy, with a not quite as good defense, and they're traveling to Lumen Field.

(ASIDE - the analogy falls apart here bc the Hawks don't own the Cards for decades like the Pack has the Lions, and road teams in the ARI-SEA rivalry have won 14 of the last 20 meetings. I digress...)

Meanwhile Detroit, in this hypothetical, is at home against the hapless Bears. All 3 teams have the same record, but with a win Detroit loses the tiebreaker to Hawks - but they're in if the Cards prevail. Then the NFL announces the Lions-Bears will be an afternoon game, but Cardinals at the Seahawks will be the feature SNF finale. I would be pretty bummed out, knowing the challenge was lessened if we 1) won the easier game, and then 2) the Cardinals were going to play knowing they could not get into the playoffs.

You def have a legitimate beef.

Now, that said....to address the bolded...

This is a massively important game for the Lions. Not for playoff implications, though that might end up being part of the story.

They're playing a meaningful final game for the first time since 2017. There is exactly one player on the roster who was on their last playoff loser (2016.) Detroit is the 2nd youngest team in the NFL, and by a WIDE MARGIN, rookies play more defensive snaps than any other team. Most of their playmakers are Y1/Y2 guys. These last 9 games (7-2) have been so important to their development. Other than Goff, Brockers and a couple other guys, nobody on the roster has playoff experience. They don't even know what it's like to be in the fight. They are learning as they go.

We are nobody's rival; other teams don't even think about us. But the Packers are, by a good margin, the biggest rival of the Lions. They have beaten us like a drum for decades. They have ruled the roost in the NFC North (neé NFC Central) for nearly 30 years. We are the freaking doormats of the league and the players are sick of it.

There is nobody Detroit wants to beat more than Green Bay. Frankly, there is no player they want to beat more than Aaron Rodgers. He's one of the best to ever play the position, he's historically been great late in the year at home, and he loves to needle his rivals. He's made comments this year that have the Lions pretty fired up. They're being smart/respectful, not giving the media anything that can get twisted in print. But trust me, this game means everything. Playoffs are ancillary.

Dan Cambell said he wouldn't want it any other way. They've been the best in the division since before he was playing for the Lions. Rodgers has been the undisputed King of the North since his first year as a starter. They're playing well in all three phases. Reporter asked him yesterday, "I know you preach each week is it's own entity, every game preparation is unique but you treat them all the same, all the games mean the same in the standings. How do approach the preparation for this week, knowing you don't want to make it seem too weighty." Oh, you tell em. This IS BIG. This is our playoffs. Hey man, it's win and we're in, or win and keep them out. THIS IS OUR PLAYOFF GAME and they're gonna know that all week.

I get your concern and if the shoe was on the other foot I might feel the same way. But trust....MCDC will have them motivated regardless.
 
Seahawks got screwed
How so?
By playing before DET-GB, a Seahawks win eliminates the Lions, lowering their motivation, thereby increasing the chances of a Packers win. The two games should have been played at the same time
Ah, good point. Well, if it's any consolation to Seahawks fans, the Lions have a looooooong history of blowing late-season games to the Packers when the stakes actually were high, so I see no reason to assume they'd do any worse when they weren't. :lol:

All kidding aside, I wonder if the delay in announcing the SNF game was due to the league needing to get assurances from the Lions that they would go all out regardless. And really, there's no reason to think that they wouldn't. When the Eagles bailed on their game a couple years ago, they were playing out the string with a coach who was about to be fired. The Lions, on the other hand, are building something, and Campbell knows that winning a prime-time game in Lambeau and knocking the Packers out of the playoffs would be a big part of that building process. I mean, the pregame speech in that scenario practically writes itself
 
Seahawks got screwed

This was a situation where there was a no-brainer objective decision to make, and the NFL opted to go another way. I wouldn’t expect any explanation.

It makes it worse that they set themselves up by not determining any start times for the final week ahead of time. In the end it didn’t matter. They WANT to give the impression that they believe in objective fairness, but when given the opportunity to follow through they show where their priorities are located.
 
Seahawks got screwed

This was a situation where there was a no-brainer objective decision to make, and the NFL opted to go another way. I wouldn’t expect any explanation.

It makes it worse that they set themselves up by not determining any start times for the final week ahead of time. In the end it didn’t matter. They WANT to give the impression that they believe in objective fairness, but when given the opportunity to follow through they show where their priorities are located.
Meaning they want the Packers in the playoffs. You're absolutely right. How much easier and fairer would it have been to have TEN-JAX as the final game?
 
I have a good friend (NFL employee) that told me this was the Sunday night matchup about 2 hours before it was officially released, I didn't want to post in this thread as it would be unfair.
 
I know we just started the season, but I'm looking at the schedule for this year, and based on my projections for 2023, the final game should be Steelers-Ravens, and it will determine the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. Anyone want to go against me on this scenario?
 
A long way off but I'll have a go.

I'll say Kansas City at L.A. Chargers.
Probably some kind of playoff implications. And The NFL loves ratings and Patrick and that Herbert would be there too adds to the watchability factor.
My second pick would be Buffalo at Miami as it could be for The AFC East Title.
my 2 cents
 
Well, we're getting late in the season, so it's time to predict what everyone thinks is going to be the final game of the season. In my opinion, I think the final game of the season is going to be Texans-Colts to determine the final wild card spot in the AFC. Now, I know this game would've been even more exciting had Anthony Richardson been playing because all of us would've gotten to see 2 rookie QBs compete on prime time to determine a spot in the playoffs. Now, it's Gardner Minshew for the Colts. The jury is still out on the condition of C.J. Stroud, but I expect him to play the rest of the season. But, that's my prediction for the final game of the regular season. Depending on what happens the rest of the season, I think this is most likely the choice for the final game of the season. What about everyone else?
 
Bills v Miami. A few interesting ways it could line up. The most dramatic would be, winner wins the division, loser is out of the playoffs.
This is absolutely the right answer. First of all, I know that the past two years have featured teams playing for a wildcard spot, but it's still less likely, because it requires all of the other games that might be affected by that match-up to play out in a certain way. We saw last year that Seattle's win eliminated Detroit and meant their game against GB was no longer win-and-in (though it still ended up being exciting).

But also, the scenario where Buffalo-Miami is for the division is very plausible. RIght now Miami is 9-4 and Buffalo is 7-6. During the next three weeks, Miami has NYJ/Dallas/Balt while Buffalo has Dallas/LAC/NE. If Miami goes 1-2 and Buffalo goes 2-1 (both seem to be the most likely scenario) then Miami is 10-6 and Buffalo is 9-7. Since Buffalo already beat them once, they would win the tiebreaker if both teams finished 10-7, so Week 18 would be for the division.
 
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Vikings vs Lions is a sleeper here. Probably won't decide a playoff spot but if they are within a game of each other it would decide the division.

Texans/Colts is the obvious frontrunner as the way the tiebreakers fall it could possibly affect two other teams by switching the relevant tiebreaker (head-to-head vs conference record)

Falcons/Saints would get the nod if those two manage to get a game ahead of Tampa and are tied at the top of the south. Good rivalry as well. Right now this would be my guess.

-QG
 
Vikings vs Lions is a sleeper here. Probably won't decide a playoff spot but if they are within a game of each other it would decide the division.

Texans/Colts is the obvious frontrunner as the way the tiebreakers fall it could possibly affect two other teams by switching the relevant tiebreaker (head-to-head vs conference record)

Falcons/Saints would get the nod if those two manage to get a game ahead of Tampa and are tied at the top of the south. Good rivalry as well. Right now this would be my guess.

-QG
The NFL has demonstrated repeatedly that they will shy away from AFC/NFC South matchups on SNF, presumably because they're ratings poison. Last year Jax-Tenn was loser leaves town and they stuck it on Saturday night in favor of GB-Detroit. IIRC there was a similar situation a few years ago with a Carolina-Atlanta game
 
Bills v Miami. A few interesting ways it could line up. The most dramatic would be, winner wins the division, loser is out of the playoffs.
This is absolutely the right answer. First of all, I know that the past two years have featured teams playing for a wildcard spot, but it's still less likely, because it requires all of the other games that might be affected by that match-up to play out in a certain way. We saw last year that Seattle's win eliminated Detroit and meant their game against GB was no longer win-and-in (though it still ended up being exciting).

But also, the scenario where Buffalo-Miami is for the division is very plausible. RIght now Miami is 9-4 and Buffalo is 10-6. During the next three weeks, Miami has NYJ/Dallas/Balt while Buffalo has Dallas/LAC/NE. If Miami goes 1-2 and Buffalo goes 2-1 (both seem to be the most likely scenario) then Miami is 10-6 and Buffalo is 9-7. Since Buffalo already beat them once, they would win the tiebreaker if both teams finished 10-7, so Week 18 would be for the division.
Update: At this point, the only way Miami-Buffalo is not for the division is if the BIlls are unable to pick up a game in the next two weeks (when they play LAC-NE while Miami plays Dallas-Balt)

Only question is whether the NFL would choose another game if both Dolphins-Bills have already clinched playoff spots. I tend to think they wouldn't. For one thing, they've flexed games like that in the past (remember that great SF-Seattle game in 2019 where the Seahawks were literally inches away from winning the division?) For another, it's hard to think of many other potential matchups that would get the same ratings. Lions facing Nick Mullens and the Vikings? Minshew vs. Stroud? Browning vs Flacco for a wildcard spot?
 
Bills v Miami. A few interesting ways it could line up. The most dramatic would be, winner wins the division, loser is out of the playoffs.
This is absolutely the right answer. First of all, I know that the past two years have featured teams playing for a wildcard spot, but it's still less likely, because it requires all of the other games that might be affected by that match-up to play out in a certain way. We saw last year that Seattle's win eliminated Detroit and meant their game against GB was no longer win-and-in (though it still ended up being exciting).

But also, the scenario where Buffalo-Miami is for the division is very plausible. RIght now Miami is 9-4 and Buffalo is 10-6. During the next three weeks, Miami has NYJ/Dallas/Balt while Buffalo has Dallas/LAC/NE. If Miami goes 1-2 and Buffalo goes 2-1 (both seem to be the most likely scenario) then Miami is 10-6 and Buffalo is 9-7. Since Buffalo already beat them once, they would win the tiebreaker if both teams finished 10-7, so Week 18 would be for the division.
Update: At this point, the only way Miami-Buffalo is not for the division is if the BIlls are unable to pick up a game in the next two weeks (when they play LAC-NE while Miami plays Dallas-Balt)

Only question is whether the NFL would choose another game if both Dolphins-Bills have already clinched playoff spots. I tend to think they wouldn't. For one thing, they've flexed games like that in the past (remember that great SF-Seattle game in 2019 where the Seahawks were literally inches away from winning the division?) For another, it's hard to think of many other potential matchups that would get the same ratings. Lions facing Nick Mullens and the Vikings? Minshew vs. Stroud? Browning vs Flacco for a wildcard spot?
that would be fun
 
Bills v Miami. A few interesting ways it could line up. The most dramatic would be, winner wins the division, loser is out of the playoffs.
This is absolutely the right answer. First of all, I know that the past two years have featured teams playing for a wildcard spot, but it's still less likely, because it requires all of the other games that might be affected by that match-up to play out in a certain way. We saw last year that Seattle's win eliminated Detroit and meant their game against GB was no longer win-and-in (though it still ended up being exciting).

But also, the scenario where Buffalo-Miami is for the division is very plausible. RIght now Miami is 9-4 and Buffalo is 10-6. During the next three weeks, Miami has NYJ/Dallas/Balt while Buffalo has Dallas/LAC/NE. If Miami goes 1-2 and Buffalo goes 2-1 (both seem to be the most likely scenario) then Miami is 10-6 and Buffalo is 9-7. Since Buffalo already beat them once, they would win the tiebreaker if both teams finished 10-7, so Week 18 would be for the division.
Update: At this point, the only way Miami-Buffalo is not for the division is if the BIlls are unable to pick up a game in the next two weeks (when they play LAC-NE while Miami plays Dallas-Balt)

Only question is whether the NFL would choose another game if both Dolphins-Bills have already clinched playoff spots. I tend to think they wouldn't. For one thing, they've flexed games like that in the past (remember that great SF-Seattle game in 2019 where the Seahawks were literally inches away from winning the division?) For another, it's hard to think of many other potential matchups that would get the same ratings. Lions facing Nick Mullens and the Vikings? Minshew vs. Stroud? Browning vs Flacco for a wildcard spot?
that would be fun
Kind of amazing to realize that, as of this moment, the 5-7 seeds in the AFC all lost their starters for the season and are playing backups (Colts are the third).
 
Bills v Miami. A few interesting ways it could line up. The most dramatic would be, winner wins the division, loser is out of the playoffs.
This is absolutely the right answer. First of all, I know that the past two years have featured teams playing for a wildcard spot, but it's still less likely, because it requires all of the other games that might be affected by that match-up to play out in a certain way. We saw last year that Seattle's win eliminated Detroit and meant their game against GB was no longer win-and-in (though it still ended up being exciting).

But also, the scenario where Buffalo-Miami is for the division is very plausible. RIght now Miami is 9-4 and Buffalo is 10-6. During the next three weeks, Miami has NYJ/Dallas/Balt while Buffalo has Dallas/LAC/NE. If Miami goes 1-2 and Buffalo goes 2-1 (both seem to be the most likely scenario) then Miami is 10-6 and Buffalo is 9-7. Since Buffalo already beat them once, they would win the tiebreaker if both teams finished 10-7, so Week 18 would be for the division.
Update: At this point, the only way Miami-Buffalo is not for the division is if the BIlls are unable to pick up a game in the next two weeks (when they play LAC-NE while Miami plays Dallas-Balt)

Only question is whether the NFL would choose another game if both Dolphins-Bills have already clinched playoff spots. I tend to think they wouldn't. For one thing, they've flexed games like that in the past (remember that great SF-Seattle game in 2019 where the Seahawks were literally inches away from winning the division?) For another, it's hard to think of many other potential matchups that would get the same ratings. Lions facing Nick Mullens and the Vikings? Minshew vs. Stroud? Browning vs Flacco for a wildcard spot?
Predicting the final game of the season is one of my favorite pastimes

Right now I'm leaning pretty heavily toward Buffalo at Miami. I just came up with one scenario on the ESPN Playoff Machine where both teams enter the game 10-6 and if Miami wins they're the #3 seed (over 10-6 Jacksonville) and Buffalo is out, or Buffalo is the #4 seed with a win and Miami goes to #7. That would be a great game to watch.

If the Saints can beat the Bucs in Week 17, and Atlanta can somehow win its next 2 (vs Indy, at Chicago) with Heinecke at QB, then Falcons at Saints in Week 18 would be for the NFC South with the loser going home. I don't see the Falcons winning their next 2 though. While Houston at Indy could have playoff implications, that's a game where someone might be eliminated before kickoff depending on what teams like Cleveland and Denver would do earlier in the day.

Otherwise, the pickings are pretty slim. These 9 games are definitely out because at least 1 team won't be hunting for the playoffs:
SEA-AZ
TB-CAR
Chi-GB
KC-LAC
DEN-LV
NYJ-NE
PHI-NYG
DAL-WAS
Jax-TENN

These games will probably be eliminated in the next couple of weeks
PIT-BAL (Steelers fall out of playoff picture)
MIN-DET (Lions are going to be locked into the #3 seed imminently and will be resting guys with nothing to play for in Week 18)
Rams-SF (if the 49ers win their next 2, they'll have the #1 seed locked up before Week 18)

Remaining games in order of least to most likely:
ATL-NO (this will be off the table if ATL loses in the next 2 weeks or NO loses next week to TB)
CLE-CIN (even if Bengals beat KC in Week 17, which I doubt, they will need a lot of things to go in their favor and will probably be eliminated by Sunday Night in Week 18)
HOU-INDY (will depend on the next few weeks, this game's importance will also likely depend on other results in Week 18)

BUF-MIA: The more I look at this, the more likely it seems. Rumors in Baltimore are that they might flex the New Year's Eve Ravens-Dolphins game into Sunday Night Football, which might mean Dolphins on SNF for the final two weeks of the season.
 
Don’t forget there are two Saturday games. Not sure what those will be, but I suspect none of the AFC wildcard teams because it would be unfair to the others
 
has to be Miami Buffalo. Very plausible that Buffalo will be facing a win and you're the #2 seed but lose and you are all the way out of the playoffs scenario.
-QG
 
I just dunno that they would put Tampa Bay vs Carolina on in a feature spot on Saturday.
They try to always have the games mean something though maybe something like Atlanta vs New Orleans in one Saturday spot and then Pittsburgh vs Baltimore in the other.
Those two games on Saturday wouldn't eliminate anyone playing later.

-QG
 

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